Evolution of the climatic niche in scaly tree ferns (Cyatheaceae,Polypodiopsida)

Although climatic niche conservatism has been assumed by a large number of studies focused on climatic niche evolution, there are examples of climatic niche diversification and adaptation to changing climates. In this article, we reconstruct a climatic niche of scaly tree ferns (Cyatheaceae) using a rigorous analytical procedure which combines climatic niche modelling with reconstruction of continuous characters given a phylogenetic hypothesis. To estimate the limits to climatic niches of species, we used climate envelope modelling and ordination. Ancestral climatic niches of species were reconstructed by maximum likelihood and least‐squares analyses. We observed a trend towards niche conservatism with occasional events of niche transformations in scaly tree ferns. We discuss the implications of our study with respect to the potential and limitations for applications of niche modelling to evolutionary studies. We suggest that future studies of evolution of climatic niches could be considerably improved by employing approaches enabling reconstruction of continuous response to climatic gradients. Further progress may also be achieved by exploring models of character evolution other than the Brownian motion model. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 165 , 1–19.     

Niche dynamics in the European ranges of two African carnivores reflect their dispersal and demographic histories

According to recent phylogeographical evidence, the common genet (Genetta genetta) and the Egyptian mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) have dissimilar dispersal histories from Maghreb to south‐western Europe. Through comparative ecological niche modelling based on >1100 occurrences, we assessed whether the niche dynamics (i.e. niche shift versus conservatism) of the two species in their European ranges reflected DNA‐based demographic scenarios. Sensitivity analyses and projections of climatic niche models from the species' native ranges (Africa and Middle East) to Europe yielded support for (1) partial climatic niche shift in the northern European range of the common genet and (2) climatic niche conservatism in the Egyptian mongoose. Our results were consistent with demographic scenarios that predicted multiple introductions and demographic expansion in the common genet and long‐term, stable historical demography in the Egyptian mongoose. Our models further predicted a range expansion of the common genet in north‐western France and Italy, and progression of the Egyptian mongoose into Europe from the Near East. Overall, our study suggested a scenario of different niche dynamics in Europe for these two species of African carnivores, supporting the view that historical factors such as dispersal and demographic history may shape niche dynamics and thus distribution potential in colonized ranges. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 114 , 737–751.     

Climatic niche evolution in turtles is characterized by phylogenetic conservatism for both aquatic and terrestrial species

Understanding how the climatic niche of species evolved has been a topic of high interest in current theoretical and applied macroecological studies. However, little is known regarding how species traits might influence climatic niche evolution. Here, we evaluated patterns of climatic niche evolution in turtles (tortoises and freshwater turtles) and whether species habitat (terrestrial or aquatic) influences these patterns. We used phylogenetic, climatic and distribution data for 261 species to estimate their climatic niches. Then, we compared whether niche overlap between sister species was higher than between random species pairs and evaluated whether niche optima and rates varied between aquatic and terrestrial species. Sister species had higher values of niche overlap than random species pairs, suggesting phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism in turtles. The climatic niche evolution of the group followed an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model with different optimum values for aquatic and terrestrial species, but we did not find consistent evidence of differences in their rates of climatic niche evolution. We conclude that phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism occurs among turtle species. Furthermore, terrestrial and aquatic species occupy different climatic niches but these seem to have evolved at similar evolutionary rates, reinforcing the importance of habitat in understanding species climatic niches and their evolution.     

Niche conservatism and phylogenetic clustering in a tribe of arid‐adapted marsupial mice,the Sminthopsini

The progressive expansion of the Australian arid zone during the last 20 Ma appears to have spurred the diversification of several families of plants, vertebrates and invertebrates, yet such taxonomic groups appear to show limited niche radiation. Here, we test whether speciation is associated with niche conservatism (constraints on ecological divergence) or niche divergence in a tribe of marsupial mice (Sminthopsini; 23 taxa) that includes the most speciose genus of living dasyurids, the sminthopsins. To that end, we integrated phylogenetic data with ecological niche modelling, to enable us to reconstruct the evolution of climatic suitability within Sminthopsini. Niche overlap among species was low‐moderate (but generally higher than expected given environmental background similarity), and the degree of phylogenetic clustering increased with aridity. Climatic niche reconstruction illustrates that there has been little apparent evolution of climatic tolerance within clades. Accordingly, climatic disparity tends to be accumulated among clades, suggesting considerable niche conservatism. Our results also indicate that evolution of climatic tolerances has been heterogeneous across different dimensions of climate (temperature vs. precipitation) and across phylogenetic clusters (Sminthopsis murina group vs. other groups). Although some results point to the existence of shifts in climatic niches during the speciation of sminthopsins, our study provides evidence for substantial phylogenetic niche conservatism in the group. We conclude that niche diversification had a low impact on the speciation of this tribe of small, but highly mobile marsupials.     

Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species'' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change.     

Environmental niche conservatism explains the accumulation of species richness in Mediterranean‐hotspot plant genera

The causes of exceptionally high plant diversity in Mediterranean‐climate biodiversity hotspots are not fully understood. We asked whether a mechanism similar to the tropical niche conservatism hypothesis could explain the diversity of four large genera (Protea, Moraea, Banksia, and Hakea) with distributions within and adjacent to the Greater Cape Floristic Region (South Africa) or the Southwest Floristic Region (Australia). Using phylogenetic and spatial data we estimated the environmental niche of each species, and reconstructed the mode and dynamics of niche evolution, and the geographic history, of each genus. For three genera, there were strong positive relationships between the diversity of clades within a region and their inferred length of occupation of that region. Within genera, there was evidence for strong evolutionary constraint on niche axes associated with climatic seasonality and aridity, with different niche optima for hotspot and nonhotspot clades. Evolutionary transitions away from hotspots were associated with increases in niche breadth and elevated rates of niche evolution. Our results point to a process of “hotspot niche conservatism” whereby the accumulation of plant diversity in Mediterranean‐type ecosystems results from longer time for speciation, with dispersal away from hotspots limited by narrow and phylogenetically conserved environmental niches.     

The evolution of climate tolerance in conifer‐feeding aphids in relation to their host's climatic niche

Climate adaptation has major consequences in the evolution and ecology of all living organisms. Though phytophagous insects are an important component of Earth's biodiversity, there are few studies investigating the evolution of their climatic preferences. This lack of research is probably because their evolutionary ecology is thought to be primarily driven by their interactions with their host plants. Here, we use a robust phylogenetic framework and species‐level distribution data for the conifer‐feeding aphid genus Cinara to investigate the role of climatic adaptation in the diversity and distribution patterns of these host‐specialized insects. Insect climate niches were reconstructed at a macroevolutionary scale, highlighting that climate niche tolerance is evolutionarily labile, with closely related species exhibiting strong climatic disparities. This result may suggest repeated climate niche differentiation during the evolutionary diversification of Cinara. Alternatively, it may merely reflect the use of host plants that occur in disparate climatic zones, and thus, in reality the aphid species' fundamental climate niches may actually be similar but broad. Comparisons of the aphids' current climate niches with those of their hosts show that most Cinara species occupy the full range of the climatic tolerance exhibited by their set of host plants, corroborating the hypothesis that the observed disparity in Cinara species' climate niches can simply mirror that of their hosts. However, 29% of the studied species only occupy a subset of their hosts' climatic zone, suggesting that some aphid species do indeed have their own climatic limitations. Our results suggest that in host‐specialized phytophagous insects, host associations cannot always adequately describe insect niches and abiotic factors must be taken into account.     

Population demography influences climatic niche evolution: evidence from diploid American Hordeum species (Poaceae)

In this study, we explore the interplay of population demography with the evolution of ecological niches during or after speciation in Hordeum. While large populations maintain a high level of standing genetic diversity, gene flow and recombination buffers against fast alterations in ecological adaptation. Small populations harbour lower allele diversity but can more easily shift to new niches if they initially survive under changed conditions. Thus, large populations should be more conservative regarding niche changes in comparison to small populations. We used environmental niche modelling together with phylogenetic, phylogeographic and population genetic analyses to infer the correlation of population demography with changes in ecological niche dimensions in 12 diploid Hordeum species from the New World, forming four monophyletic groups. Our analyses found both shifts and conservatism in distinct niche dimensions within and among clades. Speciation due to vicariance resulted in three species with no pronounced climate niche differences, while species originating due to long‐distance dispersals or otherwise encountering genetic bottlenecks mostly revealed climate niche shifts. Niche convergence among clades indicates a niche‐filling pattern during the last 2 million years in South American Hordeum. We provide evidence that species, which did not encounter population reductions mainly showed ecoclimatic niche conservatism, while major niche shifts occurred in species which have undergone population bottlenecks. Our data allow the conclusion that population demography influences adaptation and niche shifts or conservatism in South American Hordeum species.     

Effect of climate change in lizards of the genus Xenosaurus (Xenosauridae) based on projected changes in climatic suitability and climatic niche conservatism

Accelerated climate change represents a major threat to the health of the planet's biodiversity. Particularly, lizards of the genus Xenosaurus might be negatively affected by this phenomenon because several of its species have restricted distributions, low vagility, and preference for low temperatures. No study, however, has examined the climatic niche of the species of this genus and how their distribution might be influenced by different climate change scenarios. In this project, we used a maximum entropy approach to model the climatic niche of 10 species of the genus Xenosaurus under present and future suitable habitat, considering a climatic niche conservatism context. Therefore, we performed a similarity analysis of the climatic niche between each species of the genus Xenosaurus. Our results suggest that a substantial decrease in suitable habitat for all species will occur by 2070. Among the most affected species, X. tzacualtipantecus will not have suitable conditions according to its climatic niche requirements and X. phalaroanthereon will lose 85.75% of its current suitable area. On the other hand, we found low values of conservatism of the climatic niche among species. Given the limited capacity of dispersion and the habitat specificity of these lizards, it seems unlikely that fast changes would occur in the distribution of these species facing climate change. The low conservatism in climatic niche we found in Xenosaurus suggests that these species might have the capacity to adapt to the new environmental conditions originated by climate change.     

Niche-tracking migrants and niche-switching residents: evolution of climatic niches in New World warblers (Parulidae)

Differences in life-history traits between tropical and temperate lineages are often attributed to differences in their climatic niche dynamics. For example, the more frequent appearance of migratory behaviour in temperate-breeding species than in species originally breeding in the tropics is believed to have resulted partly from tropical climatic stability and niche conservatism constraining tropical species from shifting their ranges. However, little is known about the patterns and processes underlying climatic niche evolution in migrant and resident animals. We evaluated the evolution of overlap in climatic niches between seasons and its relationship to migratory behaviour in the Parulidae, a family of New World passerine birds. We used ordination methods to measure seasonal niche overlap and niche breadth of 54 resident and 49 migrant species and used phylogenetic comparative methods to assess patterns of climatic niche evolution. We found that despite travelling thousands of kilometres, migrants tracked climatic conditions across the year to a greater extent than tropical residents. Migrant species had wider niches than resident species, although residents as a group occupied a wider climatic space and niches of migrants and residents overlapped extensively. Neither breeding latitude nor migratory distance explained variation among species in climatic niche overlap between seasons. Our findings support the notion that tropical species have narrower niches than temperate-breeders, but does not necessarily constrain their ability to shift or expand their geographical ranges and become migratory. Overall, the tropics may have been historically less likely to experience the suite of components that generate strong selection pressures for the evolution of migratory behaviour.     

Evidence for shared broad‐scale climatic niches of diploid and polyploid plants

Whole‐genome duplication (polyploidy) occurs frequently and repeatedly within species, often forming new lineages that contribute to biodiversity, particularly in plants. Establishment and persistence of new polyploids may be thwarted by competition with surrounding diploids; however, climatic niche shifts, where polyploids occupy different niches than diploid progenitors, may help polyploids overcome this challenge. We tested for climatic niche shifts between cytotypes using a new ordination approach and an unprecedentedly large data set containing young, conspecific diploids and polyploids. Despite expectations of frequent niche shifts, we show evidence for alternative patterns, such as niche conservatism and contraction, rather than a prevalent pattern of niche shifts. In addition, we explore how interpreting climatic niches plotted on environmental niche (principal component) axes can generate hypotheses about processes underlying niche dynamics. Dispersal capabilities or other life‐history traits, rather than shifts to new climatic niches, could better explain polyploid persistence in the long term.     

Niche shift versus niche conservatism? Climatic characteristics of the native and invasive ranges of the Mediterranean house gecko (Hemidactylus turcicus)

Aim The use of ecological niche models (ENMs) to predict potential distributions of species is steadily increasing. A necessary assumption is that climatic niches are conservative, but recent findings of niche shifts during biological invasion indicate that this assumption is not always valid. Selection of predictor variables may be one reason for the observed shifts. In this paper we assess differences in climatic niches in the native and invaded ranges of the Mediterranean house gecko (Hemidactylus turcicus) in terms of commonly applied climate variables in ENMs. We analyse which variables are more conserved versus relaxed (i.e. subject to niche shift). Furthermore, we study the predictive power of different sets of climate variables. Location The Mediterranean region and North America. Methods We developed models using Maxent and various subsets of variables out of 19 bioclimatic layers including: (1) two subsets comprising almost all variables excluding only highly collinear ones; (2) two subsets with minimalistic variable sets of water availability and energy measures; (3) two subsets focused on temperature‐related parameters; (4) two subsets with precipitation‐related parameters; and (5) one subset comprising variables combining temperature and precipitation characteristics. Occurrence data from the native Mediterranean range were used to predict the potential introduced range in North America and vice versa. Degrees of niche similarity and conservatism were assessed using both Schoener's index and Hellinger distances. The significance of the results was tested using null models. Results The degree of niche similarity and conservatism varied greatly among the predictors and variable sets applied. Shifts observed in some variables could be attributed to active habitat selection while others apparently reflected background effects. Main conclusions The study was based on comprehensive occurrence data from all regions where Hemidactylus turcicus is present in Europe and North America, providing a robust foundation. Our results clearly indicate that the degree of conservatism of niches in H. turcicus largely varies among predictors and variable sets applied. Therefore, the extent of niche conservatism of variables applied should always be tested in ENMs. This has an important impact on studies of biological invasion, impacts of climate change and niche evolution.     

Testing the role of climate in speciation: New methods and applications to squamate reptiles (lizards and snakes)

Climate may play important roles in speciation, such as causing the range fragmentation that underlies allopatric speciation (through niche conservatism) or driving divergence of parapatric populations along climatic gradients (through niche divergence). Here, we developed new methods to test the frequency of climate niche conservatism and divergence in speciation, and applied it to species pairs of squamate reptiles (lizards and snakes). We used a large‐scale phylogeny to identify 242 sister species pairs for analysis. From these, we selected all terrestrial allopatric pairs with sufficient occurrence records (n = 49 pairs) and inferred whether each originated via climatic niche conservatism or climatic niche divergence. Among the 242 pairs, allopatric pairs were most common (41.3%), rather than parapatric (19.4%), partially sympatric (17.7%), or fully sympatric species pairs (21.5%). Among the 49 selected allopatric pairs, most appeared to have originated via climatic niche divergence (61–76%, depending on the details of the methods). Surprisingly, we found greater climatic niche divergence between allopatric sister species than between parapatric pairs, even after correcting for geographic distance. We also found that niche divergence did not increase with time, further implicating niche divergence in driving lineage splitting. Overall, our results suggest that climatic niche divergence may often play an important role in allopatric speciation, and the methodology developed here can be used to address the generality of these findings in other organisms.     

Phylogenetic conservatism of environmental niches in mammals

Phylogenetic niche conservatism is the pattern where close relatives occupy similar niches, whereas distant relatives are more dissimilar. We suggest that niche conservatism will vary across clades in relation to their characteristics. Specifically, we investigate how conservatism of environmental niches varies among mammals according to their latitude, range size, body size and specialization. We use the Brownian rate parameter, σ(2), to measure the rate of evolution in key variables related to the ecological niche and define the more conserved group as the one with the slower rate of evolution. We find that tropical, small-ranged and specialized mammals have more conserved thermal niches than temperate, large-ranged or generalized mammals. Partitioning niche conservatism into its spatial and phylogenetic components, we find that spatial effects on niche variables are generally greater than phylogenetic effects. This suggests that recent evolution and dispersal have more influence on species' niches than more distant evolutionary events. These results have implications for our understanding of the role of niche conservatism in species richness patterns and for gauging the potential for species to adapt to global change.     

Cryptic niche conservatism among evolutionary lineages of an invasive lizard

Aim There is increasing evidence that the quality and breadth of ecological niches vary among individuals, populations, evolutionary lineages and therefore also across the range of a species. Sufficient knowledge about niche divergence among clades might thus be crucial for predicting the invasion potential of species. We tested for the first time whether evolutionary lineages of an invasive species vary in their climate niches and invasive potential. Furthermore, we tested whether lineage‐specific models show a better performance than combined models. Location Europe. Methods We used species distribution models (SDMs) based on climatic information at native and invasive ranges to test for intra‐specific niche divergence among mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) clades of the invasive wall lizard Podarcis muralis. Using DNA barcoding, we assigned 77 invasive populations in Central Europe to eight geographically distinct evolutionary lineages. Niche similarity among lineages was assessed and the predictive power of a combination of clade‐specific SDMs was compared with a combined SDM using the pooled records of all lineages. Results We recorded eight different invasive mtDNA clades in Central Europe. The analysed clades had rather similar realized niches in their native and invasive ranges, whereas inter‐clade niche differentiation was comparatively strong. However, we found only a weak correlation between geographic origin (i.e. mtDNA clade) and invasive occurrences. Clades with narrow realized niches still became successful invaders far outside their native range, most probably due to broader fundamental niches. The combined model using data for all invasive lineages achieved a much better prediction of the invasive potential. Conclusions Our results indicate that the observed niche differentiation among evolutionary lineages is mainly driven by niche realization and not by differences in the fundamental niches. Such cryptic niche conservatism might hamper the success of clade‐specific niche modelling. Cryptic niche conservatism may in general explain the invasion success of species in areas with apparently unsuitable climate.     

Ecological niche conservation and differentiation in the wood-feeding cockroaches, Cryptocercus, in the United States

The distribution of a species is determined by a set of ecological correlates (biotic and abiotic factors) and historical phenomena that define and constrain its ecological niche. By examining the geographical projection of the ecological niche, it is possible to identify areas that are suitable for the species ecologically but that are not actually inhabited. Previous studies have used such discords to anticipate the existence of undescribed species; the absence of species may also result from historical barriers that have prevented colonization of the area. Thus, discords between potential and realized niches of a species may result from aspects of the species’s biology (e.g. lack of dispersal ability, specific habitat requirements) or from barriers to dispersal. In this study, we developed ecological niche models of the five Nearctic species of wood‐feeding cockroaches in the genus Cryptocercus. One species, C. clevelandi, occurs in the western USA and four (C. darwini, C. garciai, C. punctulatus, C. wrighti) are distributed in the Appalachian Mountains in the eastern USA. In general, modelled niches for all species showed ecological restriction relative to the total range of available conditions. Niche models for the eastern USA species predicted the geographical distributions of the other eastern USA species, with the exception of C. garciai, suggesting general overall conservatism in ecological characteristics. Some interspecific differences in modelled niches were also apparent. In general, C. clevelandi was predicted to occupy cooler and drier areas relative to the eastern USA species; among the eastern USA species, C. darwini and C. garciai were predicted to inhabit warmer areas relative to C. punctulatus and C. wrighti. Interspecific differences and similarities were consistent with the phylogenetic relationships among Cryptocercus species previously reported. © 2007 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2007, 90 , 457–466.     

Developmental life history is associated with variation in rates of climatic niche evolution in a salamander adaptive radiation*

Rates of climatic niche evolution vary widely across the tree of life and are strongly associated with rates of diversification among clades. However, why the climatic niche evolves more rapidly in some clades than others remains unclear. Variation in life history traits often plays a key role in determining the environmental conditions under which species can survive, and therefore, could impact the rate at which lineages can expand in available climatic niche space. Here, we explore the relationships among life-history variation, climatic niche breadth, and rates of climatic niche evolution. We reconstruct a phylogeny for the genus Desmognathus, an adaptive radiation of salamanders distributed across eastern North America, based on nuclear and mitochondrial genes. Using this phylogeny, we estimate rates of climatic niche evolution for species with long, short, and no aquatic larval stage. Rates of climatic niche evolution are unrelated to the mean climatic niche breadth of species with different life histories. Instead, we find that the evolution of a short larval period promotes greater exploration of climatic space, leading to increased rates of climatic niche evolution across species having this trait. We propose that morphological and physiological differences associated with variation in larval stage length underlie the heterogeneous ability of lineages to explore climatic niche space. Rapid rates of climatic niche evolution among species with short larval periods were an important dimension of the clade's adaptive radiation and likely contributed to the rapid rate of lineage accumulation following the evolution of an aquatic life history in this clade. Our results show how variation in a key life-history trait can constrain or promote divergence of the climatic niche, leading to variation in rates of climatic niche evolution among species.     

Life history influences rates of climatic niche evolution in flowering plants

Across angiosperms, variable rates of molecular substitution are linked with life-history attributes associated with woody and herbaceous growth forms. As the number of generations per unit time is correlated with molecular substitution rates, it is expected that rates of phenotypic evolution would also be influenced by differences in generation times. Here, we make the first broad-scale comparison of growth-form-dependent rates of niche evolution. We examined the climatic niches of species on large time-calibrated phylogenies of five angiosperm clades and found that woody lineages have accumulated fewer changes per million years in climatic niche space than related herbaceous lineages. Also, climate space explored by woody lineages is consistently smaller than sister lineages composed mainly of herbaceous taxa. This pattern is probably linked to differences in the rate of climatic niche evolution. These results have implications for niche conservatism; in particular, the role of niche conservatism in the distribution of plant biodiversity. The consistent differences in the rate of climatic niche evolution also emphasize the need to incorporate models of phenotypic evolution that allow for rate heterogeneity when examining large datasets.     

Climatic niche conservatism and the evolutionary dynamics in species range boundaries: global congruence across mammals and amphibians

Aim Comparative evidence for phylogenetic niche conservatism – the tendency for lineages to retain their ancestral niches over long time scales – has so far been mixed, depending on spatial and taxonomic scale. We quantify and compare conservatism in the climatic factors defining range boundaries in extant continental mammals and amphibians in order to identify those factors that are most evolutionarily conserved, and thus hypothesized to have played a major role in determining the geographic distributions of many species. We also test whether amphibians show stronger signals of climatic niche conservatism, as expected from their greater physiological sensitivity and lower dispersal abilities. Location Global; continental land masses excluding Antarctica. Methods We used nearly complete global distributional databases to estimate the climatic niche conservatism in extant continental mammals and amphibians. We characterized the climatic niche of each species by using a suite of variables and separately investigate conservatism in each variable using both taxonomic and phylogenetic approaches. Finally, we explored the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns in recent climatic niche evolution. Results Amphibians and mammals showed congruent patterns of conservatism in cold tolerance, with assemblages of escapee species (i.e. those escaping most from the climatic constraints of their ancestors) aggregated in the North Temperate Zone. Main conclusions The relative strength of climatic niche conservatism varies across the variables tested, but is strongest for cold tolerance in both mammals and amphibians. Despite the apparent conservatism in this variable, there is also a strong signal of recent evolutionary shifts in cold tolerance in assemblages inhabiting the North Temperate Zone. Our results thus indicate that distribution patterns of both taxa are influenced by both niche conservatism and niche evolution.     

Macroecology meets macroevolution: evolutionary niche dynamics in the seaweed Halimeda

Aim Because of their broad distribution in geographical and ecological dimensions, seaweeds (marine macroalgae) offer great potential as models for marine biogeographical inquiry and exploration of the interface between macroecology and macroevolution. This study aims to characterize evolutionary niche dynamics in the common green seaweed genus Halimeda, use the observed insights to gain understanding of the biogeographical history of the genus and predict habitats that can be targeted for the discovery of species of special biogeographical interest. Location Tropical and subtropical coastal waters. Methods The evolutionary history of the genus is characterized using molecular phylogenetics and relaxed molecular clock analysis. Niche modelling is carried out with maximum entropy techniques and uses macroecological data derived from global satellite imagery. Evolutionary niche dynamics are inferred through application of ancestral character state estimation. Results A nearly comprehensive molecular phylogeny of the genus was inferred from a six‐locus dataset. Macroecological niche models showed that species distribution ranges are considerably smaller than their potential ranges. We show strong phylogenetic signal in various macroecological niche features. Main conclusions The evolution of Halimeda is characterized by conservatism for tropical, nutrient‐depleted habitats, yet one section of the genus managed to invade colder habitats multiple times independently. Niche models indicate that the restricted geographical ranges of Halimeda species are not due to habitat unsuitability, strengthening the case for dispersal limitation. Niche models identified hotspots of habitat suitability of Caribbean species in the eastern Pacific Ocean. We propose that these hotspots be targeted for discovery of new species separated from their Caribbean siblings since the Pliocene rise of the Central American Isthmus.