Apparent survival of tropical birds in a wet,premontane forest in Costa Rica

Despite the importance of tropical birds in the development of life history theory, we lack information about demographic rates and drivers of population dynamics for most species. We used a 7‐year (2007–2013) capture‐mark‐recapture dataset from an exceptionally wet premontane forest at mid‐elevation in Costa Rica to estimate apparent survival for seven species of tropical passerines. For four of these species, we provide the first published demographic parameters. Recapture probabilities ranged from 0.21 to 0.53, and annual estimates of apparent survival varied from 0.23 to 1.00. We also assessed the consequences of inter‐annual variation in rainfall on demographic rates. Our results are consistent with inter‐annual rainfall increasing estimates of apparent survival for two species and decreasing estimates for three species. For the three species where we could compare our estimates of apparent survival to estimates from drier regions, our estimates were not consistently higher or lower than those published previously. The temporal and spatial variability in demographic rates we document within and among species highlights the difficulties of generalizing life history characteristics across broad biogeographic gradients. Most importantly, this work emphasizes the context‐specific role of precipitation in shaping tropical avian demographic rates and underscores the need for mechanistic studies of environmental drivers of tropical life histories.     

Variations in age‐ and sex‐specific survival rates help explain population trend in a discrete marine mammal population

Understanding the drivers underlying fluctuations in the size of animal populations is central to ecology, conservation biology, and wildlife management. Reliable estimates of survival probabilities are key to population viability assessments, and patterns of variation in survival can help inferring the causal factors behind detected changes in population size. We investigated whether variation in age‐ and sex‐specific survival probabilities could help explain the increasing trend in population size detected in a small, discrete population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus off the east coast of Scotland. To estimate annual survival probabilities, we applied capture–recapture models to photoidentification data collected from 1989 to 2015. We used robust design models accounting for temporary emigration to estimate juvenile and adult survival, multistate models to estimate sex‐specific survival, and age models to estimate calf survival. We found strong support for an increase in juvenile/adult annual survival from 93.1% to 96.0% over the study period, most likely caused by a change in juvenile survival. Examination of sex‐specific variation showed weaker support for this trend being a result of increasing female survival, which was overall higher than for males and animals of unknown sex. Calf survival was lower in the first than second year; a bias in estimating third‐year survival will likely exist in similar studies. There was some support first‐born calf survival being lower than for calves born subsequently. Coastal marine mammal populations are subject to the impacts of environmental change, increasing anthropogenic disturbance and the effects of management measures. Survival estimates are essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations, but obtaining robust information on the life history of long‐lived species is challenging. Our study illustrates how knowledge of survival can be increased by applying a robust analytical framework to photoidentification data.     

What shall I do now? State-dependent variations of life-history traits with aging in Wandering Albatrosses

Allocation decisions depend on an organism's condition which can change with age. Two opposite changes in life‐history traits are predicted in the presence of senescence: either an increase in breeding performance in late age associated with terminal investment or a decrease due to either life‐history trade‐offs between current breeding and future survival or decreased efficiency at old age. Age variation in several life‐history traits has been detected in a number of species, and demographic performances of individuals in a given year are influenced by their reproductive state the previous year. Few studies have, however, examined state‐dependent variation in life‐history traits with aging, and they focused mainly on a dichotomy of successful versus failed breeding and non‐breeding birds. Using a 50‐year dataset on the long‐lived quasi‐biennial breeding wandering albatross, we investigated variations in life‐history traits with aging according to a gradient of states corresponding to potential costs of reproduction the previous year (in ascending order): non‐breeding birds staying at sea or present at breeding grounds, breeding birds that failed early, late or were successful. We used multistate models to study survival and decompose reproduction into four components (probabilities of return, breeding, hatching, and fledging), while accounting for imperfect detection. Our results suggest the possible existence of two strategies in the population: strict biennial breeders that exhibited almost no reproductive senescence and quasi‐biennial breeders that showed an increased breeding frequency with a strong and moderate senescence on hatching and fledging probabilities, respectively. The patterns observed on survival were contrary to our predictions, suggesting an influence of individual quality rather than trade‐offs between reproduction and survival at late ages. This work represents a step further into understanding the evolutionary ecology of senescence and its relationship with costs of reproduction at the population level. It paves the way for individual‐based studies that could show the importance of intra‐population heterogeneity in those processes.     

Equal nonbreeding period survival in adults and juveniles of a long‐distant migrant bird

In migrant birds, survival estimates for the different life‐history stages between fledging and first breeding are scarce. First‐year survival is shown to be strongly reduced compared with annual survival of adult birds. However, it remains unclear whether the main bottleneck in juvenile long‐distant migrants occurs in the postfledging period within the breeding ranges or en route. Quantifying survival rates during different life‐history stages and during different periods of the migration cycle is crucial to understand forces driving the evolution of optimal life histories in migrant birds. Here, we estimate survival rates of adult and juvenile barn swallows (Hirundo rustica L.) in the breeding and nonbreeding areas using a population model integrating survival estimates in the breeding ranges based on a large radio‐telemetry data set and published estimates of demographic parameters from large‐scale population‐monitoring projects across Switzerland. Input parameters included the country‐wide population trend, annual productivity estimates of the double‐brooded species, and year‐to‐year survival corrected for breeding dispersal. Juvenile survival in the 3‐week postfledging period was low (S = 0.32; SE = 0.05), whereas in the rest of the annual cycle survival estimates of adults and juveniles were similarly high (S > 0.957). Thus, the postfledging period was the main survival bottleneck, revealing the striking result that nonbreeding period mortality (including migration) is not higher for juveniles than for adult birds. Therefore, focusing future research on sources of variation in postfledging mortality can provide new insights into determinants of population dynamics and life‐history evolution of migrant birds.     

Interactive effects of senescence and natural disturbance on the annual survival probabilities of snail kites

Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition‐dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition‐dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition‐dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re‐sights) of individual‐based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976–2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture–mark–recapture framework to model age‐dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition‐dependent mortality during a range‐wide drought event (2000–2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime‐aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition‐dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition‐dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi‐extinctions.     

Age‐specific responses to spring temperature in a migratory songbird: older females attempt more broods in warmer springs

Increasing global temperature has led to an interest in plasticity in the timing of annual events; however, little is known about the demographic consequences of changing phenology. Annual reproductive success varies significantly among individuals within a population, and some of that variation has to do with the number of broods attempted by reproducing adults. In birds, female age and the timing of reproduction are often predictors of multiple breeding. We hypothesize that double brooding rates may be affected by spring temperature and that the response may vary with female age. We used a long‐term reproductive data set for a migratory songbird, the prothonotary warbler (Protonotaria citrea) to assess which factors influence (a) an individual female's probability of double brooding and (b) the annual variation in population‐level double brooding rates. We found that older and earlier nesting birds are more likely to double brood, and that there is no evidence for senescence with regard to this trait such that the oldest females were most likely to double brood. Previous experience with double brooding (i.e., whether the female double brooded in the previous year) significantly increased the probability of doing so again. When assessing annual variation in the double brooding rate, we found an interaction between spring temperature and the proportion of older females in the population. Specifically, older females are more likely to double brood in years with warmer springs, but this relationship was not seen for younger females. Previous studies have shown that warmer temperatures lead to earlier and narrower peaks in resources and we hypothesize that these peaks are more available to older and earlier arriving females, enabling them to successfully raise more than one brood in a season. Understanding how different age classes respond to changing environmental conditions will be imperative to managing declining species.     

When Celibacy Matters: Incorporating Non-Breeders Improves Demographic Parameter Estimates

In long-lived species only a fraction of a population breeds at a given time. Non-breeders can represent more than half of adult individuals, calling in doubt the relevance of estimating demographic parameters from the sole breeders. Here we demonstrate the importance of considering observable non-breeders to estimate reliable demographic traits: survival, return, breeding, hatching and fledging probabilities. We study the long-lived quasi-biennial breeding wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans). In this species, the breeding cycle lasts almost a year and birds that succeed a given year tend to skip the next breeding occasion while birds that fail tend to breed again the following year. Most non-breeders remain unobservable at sea, but still a substantial number of observable non-breeders (ONB) was identified on breeding sites. Using multi-state capture-mark-recapture analyses, we used several measures to compare the performance of demographic estimates between models incorporating or ignoring ONB: bias (difference in mean), precision (difference is standard deviation) and accuracy (both differences in mean and standard deviation). Our results highlight that ignoring ONB leads to bias and loss of accuracy on breeding probability and survival estimates. These effects are even stronger when studied in an age-dependent framework. Biases on breeding probabilities and survival increased with age leading to overestimation of survival at old age and thus actuarial senescence and underestimation of reproductive senescence. We believe our study sheds new light on the difficulties of estimating demographic parameters in species/taxa where a significant part of the population does not breed every year. Taking into account ONB appeared important to improve demographic parameter estimates, models of population dynamics and evolutionary conclusions regarding senescence within and across taxa.     

Estimating age‐dependent survival from age‐aggregated ringing data—extending the use of historical records

Bird ring‐recovery data have been widely used to estimate demographic parameters such as survival probabilities since the mid‐20th century. However, while the total number of birds ringed each year is usually known, historical information on age at ringing is often not available. A standard ring‐recovery model, for which information on age at ringing is required, cannot be used when historical data are incomplete. We develop a new model to estimate age‐dependent survival probabilities from such historical data when age at ringing is not recorded; we call this the historical data model. This new model provides an extension to the model of Robinson, 2010, Ibis, 152, 651–795 by estimating the proportion of the ringed birds marked as juveniles as an additional parameter. We conduct a simulation study to examine the performance of the historical data model and compare it with other models including the standard and conditional ring‐recovery models. Simulation studies show that the approach of Robinson, 2010, Ibis, 152, 651–795 can cause bias in parameter estimates. In contrast, the historical data model yields similar parameter estimates to the standard model. Parameter redundancy results show that the newly developed historical data model is comparable to the standard ring‐recovery model, in terms of which parameters can be estimated, and has fewer identifiability issues than the conditional model. We illustrate the new proposed model using Blackbird and Sandwich Tern data. The new historical data model allows us to make full use of historical data and estimate the same parameters as the standard model with incomplete data, and in doing so, detect potential changes in demographic parameters further back in time.     

Density‐dependent survival and recruitment in a long‐distance Palaearctic migrant,the Sand Martin Riparia riparia

Long‐term studies can provide powerful insights into the relative importance of different demographic and environmental factors determining avian population dynamics. Here we use 23 years of capture–mark–recapture data (1981–2003) to estimate recruitment and survival rates for a Sand Martin Riparia riparia population in Cheshire, NW England. Inter‐annual variation in recruitment and adult survival was positively related to rainfall in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds, but unrelated to weather conditions on the breeding grounds. After allowing for the effects of African rainfall, both demographic rates were negatively density‐dependent: adult survival was related to the size of the western European Sand Martin population (probably reflecting competition for resources in the shared wintering grounds) while recruitment was related to the size of the local study population in Cheshire (potentially reflecting competition for nesting sites or food). Local population size was more sensitive to variation in adult survival than to variation in recruitment, and an increase in population size after 1995 was driven mainly by the impact of more favourable conditions in the African wintering grounds on survival rates of adults. Overwinter survival in this long‐distance Palaearctic migrant is determined partly by the amount of suitable wetland foraging habitat in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds (which is limited by the extent of summer rainfall) and partly by the number of birds exploiting that habitat.     

Age‐related variation in reproductive traits in the wandering albatross: evidence for terminal improvement following senescence

The processes driving age‐related variation in demographic rates are central to understanding population and evolutionary ecology. An increasing number of studies in wild vertebrates find evidence for improvements in reproductive performance traits in early adulthood, followed by senescent declines in later life. However, life history theory predicts that reproductive investment should increase with age as future survival prospects diminish, and that raised reproductive investment may have associated survival costs. These non‐mutually exclusive processes both predict an increase in breeding performance at the terminal breeding attempt. Here, we use a 30‐year study of wandering albatrosses (Diomedea exulans) to disentangle the processes underpinning age‐related variation in reproduction. Whilst highlighting the importance of breeding experience, we reveal senescent declines in performance are followed by a striking increase in breeding success and a key parental investment trait at the final breeding attempt.     

Age‐dependent breeding dispersal and adult survival within a metapopulation of Common Terns Sterna hirundo

Dispersal is increasingly recognized as a process of fundamental importance in population dynamics and other aspects of biology. Concurrently, interest in age‐dependent effects on survival, including actuarial senescence, has increased, especially in studies of long‐lived seabirds. Nevertheless, datasets necessary for studying dispersal and age‐dependent effects are few, as these require simultaneous data collection at two or more sites over many years. We conducted a 22‐year capture‐mark‐recapture study of Common Terns Sterna hirundo at three breeding colonies 10–26 km apart in Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, USA. All birds in the study were of known age (range 2–28 years, median 7 years, n = 3290) and 77% were of known sex. Estimates of adult recapture, survival and breeding dispersal rates were obtained for all age‐classes from 2 to 20 years. The model that acquired 100% of the QAIC_c (Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size and overdispersion) weight in our analysis included age‐specificity in all parameters but no relationship with sex. Our study may be the first to demonstrate age‐specificity in recapture, survival and breeding dispersal rates simultaneously, using a single model. Annual rates of breeding dispersal ranged from <0.01 to 0.27, with a population‐weighted mean of 0.065; they decreased with increasing distance between colony sites and, unexpectedly, increased with age. Breeding dispersal did not increase consistently after years with predation on adults or after an attempt to displace birds from an oiled site. Survival rates did not vary among sites or years. Annual adult survival increased from 0.80 in 2‐year‐old birds to a maximum of approximately 0.88 around age 8 years and then declined to 0.76 at age 20 years, yielding strong evidence for actuarial senescence. The peak annual survival rate of 0.88 is at the low end of other estimates for Common Tern and in the lower part of the range recorded for other terns, but total numbers in the three colonies increased seven‐fold during the study. This was part of a slower increase in the regional population, with net immigration into the study colonies. Our results demonstrate the biological significance of breeding dispersal in local population dynamics and age‐related effects on survival and dispersal from a metapopulation of a long‐lived seabird.     

Temporal variation of juvenile survival in a long-lived species: the role of parasites and body condition

Studies of population dynamics of long-lived species have generally focused on adult survival because population growth should be most sensitive to this parameter. However, actual variations in population size can often be driven by other demographic parameters, such as juvenile survival, when they show high temporal variability. We used capture–recapture data from a long-term study of a hunted, migratory species, the greater snow goose (Chen caerulescens atlantica), to assess temporal variability in first-year survival and the relative importance of natural and hunting mortality. We also conducted a parasite-removal experiment to determine the effect of internal parasites and body condition on temporal variation in juvenile survival. We found that juvenile survival showed a higher temporal variability than adult survival and that natural mortality was more important than hunting mortality, unlike in adults. Parasite removal increased first-year survival and reduced its annual variability in females only. Body condition at fledging was also positively correlated with first-year survival in treated females. With reduced parasite load, females, which are thought to invest more in their immune system than males according to Bateman’s principle, could probably reallocate more energy to growth than males, leading to a higher survival. Treated birds also had a higher survival than control ones during their second year, suggesting a developmental effect that manifested later in life. Our study shows that natural factors such as internal parasites may be a major source of variation in juvenile survival of a long-lived, migratory bird, which has implications for its population dynamics.     

High juvenile annual survival probabilities in Southern Rockhopper Penguins Eudyptes chrysocome are independent of individual fledging traits

Juvenile survival is an important demographic parameter. Southern Rockhopper Penguins Eudyptes chrysocome have undergone a dramatic population decline in the past century across their distribution, but the demographic processes are poorly understood. To estimate juvenile annual survival probabilities, Rockhopper Penguin chicks from two cohorts on New Island, Falkland Islands, were marked with transponders and recorded in subsequent years using an automated gateway. We first estimated annual survival and detection probabilities using a Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber (CJS) model, and found that both probabilities were extremely high (81% in the first and 98% in the second, third and fourth years of life), even in comparison with adult birds. Because detection probability after 3 years was effectively 1, and our sample size (n = 114) was too small to explore the effects of individual traits on survival in a CJS model, we assessed whether sex, cohort, body mass and laying sequence affected whether juveniles returned to the colony during their first 3 years of life using a simple generalized linear model that assumed perfect detection. Juveniles from the first cohort and males showed a higher return probability than juveniles from the second cohort and females. There was no clear effect of fledging body mass on return rate, probably related to the favourable environmental conditions during the study period. The laying sequence did not markedly affect the return probability of chicks, indicating that, once fledged, first‐laid A‐chicks have the same probability to return as second‐laid B‐chicks despite a much larger initial maternal investment in B‐eggs in this species. This study demonstrates extraordinarily high juvenile survival probabilities and will help to understand the recent changes in the population dynamics of the Falkland Islands Southern Rockhopper Penguins.     

Survival of Afro‐Palaearctic passerine migrants in western Europe and the impacts of seasonal weather variables

Populations of migratory songbirds in western Europe show considerable variation in population trends between species and regions. The demographic and environmental causes of these large‐scale patterns are poorly understood. Using data from Constant Effort mist‐netting studies, we investigated relationships between changes in abundance, adult survival and seasonal weather conditions among 35 western European populations of eight species of migratory warblers (Sylviidae). We used cross‐species and within‐species comparisons to assess whether annual variation in survival was correlated with weather conditions during passage or winter. We estimated survival using CJS mark‐recapture models accounting for variation in the proportion of transient individuals and recapture rates. Species wintering in the humid bioclimatic zone of western Africa had significantly higher annual survival probabilities than species wintering in the arid bioclimatic zone of Africa (the Sahel). Rainfall in the Sahel was positively correlated with survival in at least some populations of five species. We found substantially fewer significant relationships with indices of weather during the autumn and spring passage periods, which may be due to the use of broad‐scale indices. Annual population changes were correlated with adult survival in all of our study species, although species undergoing widespread declines showed the weakest relationships.     

Sex,growth rate,rank order after brood reduction,and hatching date affect first‐year survival of long‐lived Herring Gulls

Among most species of birds, survival from hatching throughout the first year of life is generally lower than subsequent survival rates. Survival of young birds during their first year may depend on a combination of selection, learning, unpredictable resources, and environmental events (i.e., post‐fledging factors). However, knowledge about post‐fledging development in long‐lived species is usually limited due to a lengthy immature stage when individuals are generally unobservable. Therefore, pre‐fledging characteristics are often used to predict the survival of young birds. We assessed effects of nestling growth rates, hatching date, hatching asynchrony, brood size and rank order after brood reduction, and sex on first‐year survival of 137 fledglings using a mark‐resighting analysis. We found that the survival probability (Φ_1yr = 0.39) of first‐year Herring Gulls (Larus argentatus) in our study colony located at the outer port of Zeebrugge (Belgium) was lower than that of older individuals (Φ_>1yr = 0.75). All 10 models best supported by our data included nestling growth rate, suggesting that variability in first‐year survival may be linked primarily to individual variation in growth. First‐year survival was negatively correlated with hatching date and rank order after brood reduction. Hence, carry‐over effects of breeding season events such as timing of breeding, early development, and social status had an influence on survival of Herring Gulls after fledging. Furthermore, we found sex‐biased mortality in first‐year Herring Gulls, with females (Φ_1yr = 0.45) surviving better than males (Φ_1yr = 0.38). Although adult survival is generally regarded as the key parameter driving population trajectories in long‐lived species, juvenile survival has recently been acknowledged as an important source of variability in population growth rates. Thus, increasing our knowledge of factors affecting age‐specific survival rates is necessary to improve our understanding of population dynamics and ultimately life‐history variation.     

Survival in a long-lived territorial migrant: effects of life-history traits and ecological conditions in wintering and breeding areas

Despite its key role in population dynamics and evolutionary ecology, little is known about factors shaping survival in long‐lived territorial species. Here, we assessed several hypotheses that might explain variability in survival in a migratory Spanish population of a long‐lived territorial species, the Egyptian vulture Neophron percnopterus, using a 16‐year monitoring period and live‐encounter histories of 835 individually marked birds. Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber capture–recapture models showed no evidence for effects of sex or nestling body condition on survival. However, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; an indicator of primary productivity) of natal territories had positive effects on juvenile survival, indicating that environmental conditions experienced early in life can determine survival prospects. Survival increased with age (0.73±0.02 in the first 2 years to 0.78±0.03 in years 3 and 4) to later decrease when birds were five years old (0.60±0.05), the age at which they acquire the adult plumage, abandon the communal lifestyle of juveniles, and may look for a breeding territory. At older ages, survival was higher for non‐breeding (0.75±0.02) and breeding adults (0.83±0.02). Among the latter, birds that recruited into better territories had higher survival prospects. Age‐specific variation in survival in this species may be related to behavioural changes linked to dispersal and recruitment into the breeding population, while survival prospects of adult birds strongly depend on breeding territory selection. These results suggest a tradeoff between recruiting soon, and thus reducing mortality costs of a long and extensive dispersal period, and trying to recruit into a good quality territory. Finally, annual survival rates for birds of all age classes were positively related with the NDVI in their African wintering grounds. Although this relationship was probably mediated by food availability, further research is needed to properly identify the limiting factors that are affecting trans‐Saharan migrants, especially in light of global climate change.     

Population demography of frillneck lizards (Chlamydosaurus kingii,Gray 1825) in the wet‐dry tropics of Australia

We explore the effects of biotic and abiotic factors on the population demography of frillneck lizards (Chlamydosaurus kingii) in the Australian wet‐dry tropics. Annual growth rates of males were significantly higher across all body sizes compared to females, resulting in a significant larger maximum body size in males. Both male and female lizards were highly philopatric and 81% of the among‐year recapture distances were less than 200 m. Juvenile and adult frillnecks were subjected to low but highly variable annual survival rates. Both proportion of juveniles and relative proportion of reproductive females showed extensive among‐year variations. No relationship was, however, observed between proportion of gravid females and that of juveniles captured during the subsequent year. High rainfall in January was negatively correlated with recruitment most likely caused by increased egg/embryo mortality due to flooding of nest sites. We therefore suggest that the lack of association between female reproduction and juvenile recruitment was due to the effects of stochastic variation in January rainfall. Lizard numbers increased during the first five years of the study followed by a decline during the subsequent four years. Our analyses show that annual variation in survival constituted the main determinant in driving the annual change in frillneck numbers. Surprisingly, no relationship was observed between fillneck population dynamics and annual variation in juvenile recruitment. We suggest that the 7‐years over which these analyses were conducted were insufficient to detect any significant effects of recruitment on lizard numbers, demonstrating the need for long‐term studies to accurately document vertebrate population demographic processes in areas experiencing stochastic variations rainfall such as the Australian wet‐dry tropics.     

Cohort‐specific estimates of first‐year survival are positively associated with size at stocking for lake sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens (Rafinesque 1817) stocked in Black Lake,Michigan, USA

The authors conducted a gillnet survey in 2013 in Black Lake, Michigan, USA to evaluate the lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) stocking programme that began in 2001. Objectives were to (i) estimate year‐class specific abundance of juvenile lake sturgeon in Black Lake; and (ii) determine year‐class specific survival of stocked year classes and determine whether year‐class‐specific first‐year survival was related to average size at the time of stocking. Deployed were 15 and 20 cm stretch mesh gillnets at 72 randomly selected sites in Black Lake over a 3‐week survey using a Schnabel multiple‐mark, multiple‐recapture estimator to determine overall abundance of stocked fish. Ages for captured fish were determined from fin ray cross sections and the presence of coded wire tags, and apportioned the overall abundance estimate of juveniles to year class using an age‐length key. Overall survival estimates were calculated by dividing the year‐class specific abundance estimates by the number of fish stocked that year. Also evaluated was the relationship between first‐year survival and average total length (TL) at time of stocking using logistic regression. Overall survival from stocking to 2013 ranged from 0.03 to 0.53. First‐year survival was positively associated with average TL at stocking, and ranged from 0.05 for fish stocked at 9 cm TL to 0.84 for fish stocked at 22 cm TL. Estimation of future cohort‐specific abundance based on size‐based expected survival allows managers to establish annual stocking targets that should lead to the achievement of long‐term population goals for adult abundance.     

Drivers of megaherbivore demographic fluctuations: inference from elephants

Environmentally induced variation in survival and fecundity generates demographic fluctuations that affect population growth rate. However, a general pattern of the comparative influence of variation in fecundity and juvenile survival on elephant population dynamics has not been investigated at a broad scale. We evaluated the relative importance of conception, gestation, first year survival and subsequent survivorship for controlling demographic variation by exploring the relationship between past environmental conditions determined by integrated normalized difference vegetation index (INDVI) and the shape of age distributions at 17 sites across Africa. We showed that, generally, INDVI during gestation best explained anomalies in age structure. However, in areas with low mean annual rainfall, INDVI during the first year of life was critical. The results challenge Eberhardt's paradigm for population analysis that suggests that populations respond to limited resource availability through a sequential decrease in juvenile survival, reproductive rate and adult survival. Contrastingly, elephants appear to respond first through a reduction in reproductive rate. We conclude that this discrepancy is likely due to the evolutionary significance of extremely large body size – an adaptation that increases survival rate but decreases reproductive potential. Other megaherbivores may respond similarly to resource limitation due to similarities in population dynamics. Knowing how vital rates vary with changing environmental conditions will permit better forecasts of the trajectories of megaherbivore populations.     

High within‐winter and annual survival rates in a declining Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird suggest that wintering conditions do not limit populations

For migratory birds, it is necessary to estimate annual and overwinter survival rates, identify factors that influence survival, and assess whether survival varies with age and sex if we are to understand population dynamics and thus inform conservation. This study is one of the first to document overwinter and annual survival from the wintering grounds of a declining Afro‐Palaearctic migrant bird, the Whinchat Saxicola rubetra. We monitored a population of marked individuals for which dispersal was low and detectability was high, allowing accurate estimates of survival. Annual survival was at least 52% and did not differ significantly across demographic groups or with habitat characteristics or residency time in the previous winter. Overwinter survival was very high and monthly survival at least 98% at some sites. Although winter residency varied spatially and with age, lower residency did not correlate with reduced annual survival, suggesting occupancy of multiple wintering sites rather than higher winter mortality of individuals with shorter residency. Our results suggest that mortality occurs primarily outside the wintering period, probably during migration, and that wintering conditions have minimal influence on survival. The similarity between survival rates for all age and sex classes when measured on the wintering grounds implies that any difference in survival with age or sex occurs only during the first migration or during the post‐fledging stage, and that selection of wintering habitat, or territory quality, makes little difference to survival in Whinchats. Our findings suggest that the wintering grounds do not limit populations as much as the migratory and breeding stages, with implications for the conservation of declining Afro‐Palaearctic migrants more widely.