Solar UVB and warming affect decomposition and earthworms in a fen ecosystem in Tierra del Fuego, Argentina

Combined effects of co-occurring global climate changes on ecosystem responses are generally poorly understood. Here, we present results from a 2-year field experiment in a Carex fen ecosystem on the southernmost tip of South America, where we examined the effects of solar ultraviolet B (UVB, 280–315 nm) and warming on above- and belowground plant production, C : N ratios, decomposition rates and earthworm population sizes. Solar UVB radiation was manipulated using transparent plastic filter films to create a near-ambient (90% of ambient UVB) or a reduced solar UVB treatment (15% of ambient UVB). The warming treatment was imposed passively by wrapping the same filter material around the plots resulting in a mean air and soil temperature increase of about 1.2 °C. Aboveground plant production was not affected by warming, and marginally reduced at near-ambient UVB only in the second season. Aboveground plant biomass also tended to have a lower C : N ratio under near-ambient UVB and was differently affected at the two temperatures (marginal UVB × temperature interaction). Leaf decomposition of one dominant sedge species ( Carex curta ) tended to be faster at near-ambient UVB than at reduced UVB. Leaf decomposition of a codominant species ( Carex decidua ) was significantly faster at near-ambient UVB; root decomposition of this species tended to be lower at increased temperature and interacted with UVB. We found, for the first time in a field experiment that epigeic earthworm density and biomass was 36% decreased by warming but remained unaffected by UVB radiation. Our results show that present-day solar UVB radiation and modest warming can adversely affect ecosystem functioning and engineers of this fen. However, results on plant biomass production also showed that treatment manipulations of co-occurring global change factors can be overridden by the local climatic situation in a given study year.     

Prediction of climate warming impacts on plant species could be more complex than expected. Evidence from a case study in the Himalaya

Many studies have investigated the possible impact of climate change on the distributions of plant species. In the present study, we test whether the concept of potential distribution is able to effectively predict the impact of climate warming on plant species.Using spatial simulation models, we related the actual (current species distribution), potential (modelled distribution assuming unlimited dispersal) and predicted (modelled distribution accounting for wind-limited seed dispersal) distributions of two plant species under several warming scenarios in the Sagarmatha National Park (Nepal). We found that the two predicted distributions were, respectively, seven and nine times smaller than the potential ones. Under a +3 °C scenario, both species would likely lose their actual and predicted distributions, while their potential distributions would remain partially safe. Our results emphasize that the predicted distributions of plant species may diverge to a great extent from their potential distributions, particularly in mountain areas, and predictions of species preservation in the face of climate warming based on the potential distributions of plant species are at risk of producing overoptimistic projections.We conclude that the concept of potential distribution is likely to lead to limited or inefficacious conservation of plant species due to its excessively optimistic projections of species preservation. More robust strategies should utilize concepts such as “optimal reintroduction”, which maximizes the benefit–cost ratio of conservation activities by limiting reintroduction efforts to suitable areas that could not otherwise be reached by a species; moreover, such strategies maximize the probability of species establishment by excluding areas that will be endangered under future climate scenarios.     

Species traits explain recent range shifts of Finnish butterflies

This study provides a novel systematic comparative analysis of the species characteristics affecting the range margin shifts in butterflies towards higher latitudes, while taking phylogenetic relatedness among species into account. We related observed changes in the northern range margins of 48 butterfly species in Finland between two time periods (1992–1996 and 2000–2004) to 11 species traits. Species with positive records in at least ten 10 km × 10 km grid squares (in the Finnish National Butterfly Recording Scheme, NAFI) in both periods were included in the study. When corrected for range size change, the 48 butterfly species had shifted their range margins northwards on average by 59.9 km between the study periods, with maximum shifts of over 300 km for three species. This rate of range shifts exceeds all previously reported records worldwide. Our findings may be explained by two factors: the study region is situated in higher latitudes than in most previous studies and it focuses on the period of most prominent warming during the last 10–15 years. Several species traits exhibited a significant univariate relationship with the range margin shift according to generalized estimation equations (GEE) taking into account the phylogenetic relatedness among species. Nonthreatened butterflies had on average expanded their ranges strongly northwards (84.5 km), whereas the distributions of threatened species were stationary (−2.1 km). Hierarchical partitioning (HP) analysis indicated that mobile butterflies living in forest edges and using woody plants as their larval hosts exhibited largest range shifts towards the north. Thus, habitat availability and dispersal capacity of butterfly species are likely to determine whether they will be successful in shifting their ranges in response to the warming climate.     

Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America

Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate‐driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species‐specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate‐driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over‐predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.     

Ecological niche conservatism in North American freshwater fishes

There are many hypotheses of relationships, and also of speciation processes, in North American freshwater fishes, although, to date, there have been no direct tests of whether there is evidence of ecological niche conservatism. In the present study, ecological niche modeling is used to look for evidence of ecological niche conservatism in six clades of freshwater fishes: the starheaded topminnows, sand darters, black basses, Notropis rubellus species group, Notropis longirostris species group, and the Hybopsis amblops species group. This is achieved by evaluating the reciprocal predictivity of distributional predictions based on ecological niche models developed for each individual taxon in a clade under the assumption that high reciprical predictivity between sister species can be taken as evidence of niche conservatism. Omission percentages, total and average commission, and the area under the curve in a receiver operating characteristic analysis, where calculated, are used to evaluate predictive ability. Occurrence data for each species were subset into a training and independent validation data set where possible. Across all clades and species, models predicted the validation data for a given species well. Ecological niche conservatism was found generally across the starheaded topminnows, the sand darters, and the N. longirostris species group. There was some inter-predictivity within the N. rubellus group, but almost no inter-predictivity within the black basses, indicating a lack of conservatism. These results demonstrate that ecological niches generally act as stable constraints on freshwater fish distributions in North America.  © 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2009, 96 , 282–295.     

Temperature tracking by North Sea benthic invertebrates in response to climate change

Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity and distributions shifts are one of the most significant threats to global warming, but the extent to which these shifts keep pace with a changing climate is yet uncertain. Understanding the factors governing range shifts is crucial for conservation management to anticipate patterns of biodiversity distribution under future anthropogenic climate change. Soft‐sediment invertebrates are a key faunal group because of their role in marine biogeochemistry and as a food source for commercial fish species. However, little information exists on their response to climate change. Here, we evaluate changes in the distribution of 65 North Sea benthic invertebrate species between 1986 and 2000 by examining their geographic, bathymetric and thermal niche shifts and test whether species are tracking their thermal niche as defined by minimum, mean or maximum sea bottom (SBT) and surface (SST) temperatures. Temperatures increased in the whole North Sea with many benthic invertebrates showing north‐westerly range shifts (leading/trailing edges as well as distribution centroids) and deepening. Nevertheless, distribution shifts for most species (3.8–7.3 km yr^?1 interquantile range) lagged behind shifts in both SBT and SST (mean 8.1 km yr^?1), resulting in many species experiencing increasing temperatures. The velocity of climate change (VoCC) of mean SST accurately predicted both the direction and magnitude of distribution centroid shifts, while maximum SST did the same for contraction of the trailing edge. The VoCC of SBT was not a good predictor of range shifts. No good predictor of expansions of the leading edge was found. Our results show that invertebrates need to shift at different rates and directions to track the climate velocities of different temperature measures, and are therefore lagging behind most temperature measures. If these species cannot withstand a change in thermal habitat, this could ultimately lead to a drop in benthic biodiversity.     

Compositional shifts in Costa Rican forests due to climate‐driven species migrations

Species are predicted to shift their distributions upslope or poleward in response to global warming. This prediction is supported by a growing number of studies documenting species migrations in temperate systems but remains poorly tested for tropical species, and especially for tropical plant species. We analyzed changes in tree species composition in a network of 10 annually censused 1‐ha plots spanning an altitudinal gradient of 70–2800 m elevation in Costa Rica. Specifically, we combined plot data with herbarium records (accessed through GBIF) to test if the plots' community temperature scores (CTS, average thermal mean of constituent species weighted by basal area) have increased over the past decade as is predicted by climate‐driven species migrations. In addition, we quantified the contributions of stem growth, recruitment, and mortality to the observed patterns. Supporting our a priori hypothesis of upward species migrations, we found that there have been consistent directional shifts in the composition of the plots, such that the relative abundance of lowland species, and hence CTS, increased in 90% of plots. The rate of the observed compositional shifts corresponds to a mean thermal migration rate (TMR) of 0.0065 °C yr^?1 (95% CI = 0.0005–0.0132 °C yr^?1). While the overall TMR is slower than predicted based on concurrent regional warming of 0.0167 °C yr^?1, migrations were on pace with warming in 4 of the 10 plots. The observed shifts in composition were driven primarily by mortality events (i.e., the disproportionate death of highland vs. lowland species), suggesting that individuals of many tropical tree species will not be able to tolerate future warming and thus their persistence in the face of climate change will depend on successful migrations. Unfortunately, in Costa Rica and elsewhere, land area inevitably decreases at higher elevations; hence, even species that are able to migrate successfully will face heightened risks of extinction.     

Climatic niche breadth determines the response of bumblebees (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Bombus</Emphasis> spp.) to climate warming in mountain areas of the Northern Iberian Peninsula

Studies examining species range shifts in the face of climate change have consistently found that response patterns are complex and varied, suggesting that ecological traits might be affecting species response. However, knowledge of how the traits of a species determine its response to climate change is still poorly understood. Here we investigate the role of species-specific climate niche breadth in forecasting bumblebee (Bombus spp.) responses to regional climate warming in the Cantabrian Range (north-western Iberian Peninsula). Climate niche breadth was defined using known data for occurrences of specific species at their continental (i.e., European) scale of distribution. For each bumblebee species, climate niche breadth was found to be related to (1) the elevational range shifts of species between their historical (1988–1989) and recent (2007–2009) distribution and (2) the variation in the climatic conditions of the localities they inhabited (i.e., the local climate space) between both study periods. Our results show a strong relationship between climate niche breadth, particularly thermal niche breadth, and the response of bumblebee species to climate warming, but only when this response was determined as variations in local climate space. The main conclusions of our work are thus twofold. First, variations in the climatic conditions underlying range shifts are useful in making accurate assessments of the impact of climate change on species distributions. Second, climate niche breadth is a particularly informative ecological trait for forecasting variations in species responses to climate change.     

Climate warming increases biological control agent impact on a non‐target species

Climate change may shift interactions of invasive plants, herbivorous insects and native plants, potentially affecting biological control efficacy and non‐target effects on native species. Here, we show how climate warming affects impacts of a multivoltine introduced biocontrol beetle on the non‐target native plant Alternanthera sessilis in China. In field surveys across a latitudinal gradient covering their full distributions, we found beetle damage on A. sessilis increased with rising temperature and plant life history changed from perennial to annual. Experiments showed that elevated temperature changed plant life history and increased insect overwintering, damage and impacts on seedling recruitment. These results suggest that warming can shift phenologies, increase non‐target effect magnitude and increase non‐target effect occurrence by beetle range expansion to additional areas where A. sessilis occurs. This study highlights the importance of understanding how climate change affects species interactions for future biological control of invasive species and conservation of native species.     

Climate change induced elevational range shifts of Himalayan tree species

Global warming may force montane species to shift upward to keep pace with their shifting climate niche. How species differences in such distribution shifts depend on their elevational positions, elevation-dependent warming rates, and other environmental constraints, or plant functional traits is poorly understood. Here, we analyzed for 137 Himalayan tree species how distribution shifts vary with elevational niche positions, environmental constraints, and their functional traits. We developed ecological niche models using MaxEnt by combining species survey and botanical collections data with 19 environmental predictors. Species distributions were projected to 1985 and 2050 conditions, and elevational range parameters and distribution areas were derived. Under the worst-case RCP 8.5 scenario, species are predicted to shift, on average, 3 m/year in optimum elevation, and have 33% increase in distribution area. Highland species showed faster predicted elevational shifts than lowland species. Lowland and highland species are predicted to expand in distribution area in contrast to mid-elevation species. Tree species for which species distribution models are driven by responses to temperature, aridity, or soil clay content showed the strongest predicted upslope shifts. Tree species with conservative trait values that enable them to survive resource poor conditions (i.e., narrow conduits) showed larger predicted upslope shifts than species with wide conduits. The predicted average upslope shift in maximum elevation (8 m/year) is >2 times faster than the current observations indicating that many species will not be able to track climate change and potentially go extinct, unless they are supported by active conservation measures, such as assisted migration.     

Feeding ecology and seed dispersal of sympatric cheirogaleid lemurs (Microcebus murinus, Cheirogaleus medius, Cheirogaleus major) in the littoral rainforest of south-east Madagascar

The lemurs of Madagascar are known for their extraordinary species diversity. The mechanisms that allow the coexistence of these species are still poorly known. Here feeding patterns were investigated for three small nocturnal lemur species of Cheirogaleidae ( Microcebus murinus , Cheirogaleus medius and Cheirogaleus major ) occurring sympatrically in a littoral rainforest in south-east Madagascar. During three rainy seasons, the plant species eaten by these three lemurs were described in relation to morphological and biochemical characteristics. All three species were mainly frugivorous and fed on 68 different plant species with small- and medium-sized fruits. A total of 91% of these forage plant species was visited by all three lemur species. Fruits larger than 25–30 mm were avoided. Seeds of a total of 51 food plant species were swallowed and passed the gut unharmed. Thus, even these smaller lemur species play an important role in seed dispersal. There were no differences in the morphological and biochemical characteristics of fruits eaten between the three species, but the feeding height was significantly different between the species. Thus, competition avoidance and niche separation are presumably not based on different feeding patterns of M. murinus , C. medius and C. major in the littoral rainforest, but on different habitat utilization.     

MigClim: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Aim Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distributions using models based on ecological niche theory, but most of them have ignored dispersal‐limitations, assuming dispersal to be either unlimited or null. Depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under‐ or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of ‘potentially suitable’ and ‘potentially colonizable’ habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed Mig Clim, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. Mig Clim implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, landscape fragmentation or long‐distance dispersal. Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Using our Mig Clim model, several simulations were run for two virtual species by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the 100‐year period 2001–2100 and three different IPCC‐based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Results of dispersal‐limited projections were compared with unlimited and no‐dispersal projections. Results Our simulations indicate that: (1) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using Mig Clim can differ significantly (up to more than 95% difference in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (2) this divergence increases under more extreme climate warming scenarios and over longer time periods; and (3) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be as large as the one related to dispersal parameters. Main conclusions Accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections of species distribution under climate change scenarios.     

Phylogenetic perspective on ecological niche evolution in american blackbirds (Family Icteridae)

Analysis of ecological characters on phylogenetic frameworks has only recently appeared in the literature, with several studies addressing patterns of niche evolution, generally over relatively recent time frames. In the present study, we examined patterns of niche evolution for a broad radiation of American blackbird species (Family Icteridae), exploring more deeply into phylogenetic history. Within each of three major blackbird lineages, overlap of ecological niches in principal components analysis transformed environmental space varied from high to none. Comparative phylogenetic analyses of ecological niche characteristics showed a general pattern of niche conservatism over evolutionary time, with differing degrees of innovation among lineages. Although blackbird niches were evolutionarily plastic over differing periods of time, they diverged within a limited set of ecological possibilities, resulting in examples of niche convergence among extant blackbird species. Hence, an understanding of the patterns of ecological niche evolution on broad phylogenetic scales sets the stage for framing questions of evolutionary causation, historical biogeography, and ancestral ecological characteristics more appropriately.  © 2008 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2008, 94 , 869–878.     

Different temporal trends in vascular plant and bryophyte communities along elevational gradients over four decades

Despite many studies showing biodiversity responses to warming, the generality of such responses across taxonomic groups remains unclear. Very few studies have tested for evidence of bryophyte community responses to warming, even though bryophytes are major contributors to diversity and functioning in many ecosystems. Here, we report an empirical study comparing long‐term change in bryophyte and vascular plant communities in two sites with contrasting long‐term warming trends, using “legacy” botanical records as a baseline for comparison with contemporary resurveys. We hypothesized that ecological changes would be greater in sites with a stronger warming trend and that vascular plant communities, with narrower climatic niches, would be more sensitive than bryophyte communities to climate warming. For each taxonomic group in each site, we quantified the magnitude of changes in species'' distributions along the elevation gradient, species richness, and community composition. We found contrasted temporal changes in bryophyte vs. vascular plant communities, which only partially supported the warming hypothesis. In the area with a stronger warming trend, we found a significant increase in local diversity and dissimilarity (β‐diversity) for vascular plants, but not for bryophytes. Presence–absence data did not provide sufficient power to detect elevational shifts in species distributions. The patterns observed for bryophytes are in accordance with recent literature showing that local diversity can remain unchanged despite strong changes in composition. Regardless of whether one taxon is systematically more or less sensitive to environmental change than another, our results suggest that vascular plants cannot be used as a surrogate for bryophytes in terms of predicting the nature and magnitude of responses to warming. Thus, to assess overall biodiversity responses to global change, abundance data from different taxonomic groups and different community properties need to be synthesized.     

Herbivory and growth in terrestrial and aquatic populations of amphibious stream plants

1. Many amphibious plant species grow in the transition between terrestrial and submerged vegetation in small lowland streams. We determined biomass development, leaf turnover rate and invertebrate herbivory during summer in terrestrial and aquatic populations of three amphibious species to evaluate advantages and disadvantages of aerial and submerged life.
2. Terrestrial populations had higher area shoot density, biomass and leaf production than aquatic populations, while leaf turnover rate and longevity were the same. Terrestrial populations experienced lower percentage grazing loss of leaf production (average 1.2–5.1%) than aquatic populations (2.9–17.3%), while the same plant dry mass was consumed per unit ground area.
3. Grazing loss increased linearly with leaf age apart from the youngest leaf stages. Grazing loss during the lifetime of leaves was therefore 2.4–3.1 times higher than mean apparent loss to standing leaves of all ages. The results imply that variation in density of grazers relative to plant production can account for differences in grazing impact between terrestrial and aquatic populations, and that fast leaf turnover keeps apparent grazing damage down.
4. We conclude that the ability of amphibious plants to grow submerged permits them to expand their niche and escape intense competition on land, but the stream does not provide a refugium against grazing and constrains plant production compared with the terrestrial habitat.     

A novel method for floristic quality assessment using the vegetation of the Jiuding Mountain, Sichuan, China as an example

Floristic Quality Assessment (FQA) is proposed as a new method to assess floristic integrity. In the present study, we use both the conventional method broadly adopted in the USA and a new one proposed herein to assess the floristic quality of the Jiuding Mountain. For the application of the FQA, each plant species was assigned an integer from 0 to 10 termed coefficient of conservatism (C) based on its global distribution area. The coefficient shows the degree of fidelity of each plant species to the flora of the west slope of the Jiuding Mountain and represents a rank based on its distribution area. Those species receiving a C value of 0–1 are distributed all over the world, those receiving a C value of 2–3 mostly in tropical areas, and those receiving a C value of 4–6 broadly in temperate areas. Species with C values of 7–8 are endemic to China and those with coefficients 9–10 are restricted to the Hengduan Mountains or even endemic to the Jiuding Mountain. Based on the fact that different plant species show different relative importance values (IV), the new method estimates the weighted averages for the coefficient of conservatism called the weighted mean coefficient of conservatism (     _w). The floristic quality index (FQI) was then derived from     or     _w, native species richness (N) and non-native species (A). As expected when using the new method, the dominant species of the communities obtained different Cs, which resulted in different     _ws and FQI_ws as compared to the conventional method.     

A stochastic biodiversity model with overlapping niche structure

The niche is a fundamental ecological concept that underpins many explanations of patterns of biodiversity. The complexity of niche processes in ecological systems, however, means that it is difficult to capture them accurately in theoretical models of community assembly. In this study, we build upon simple neutral biodiversity models by adding the important ingredient of overlapping niche structure. Our model is spatially implicit and contains a fixed number of equal-sized habitats. Each species in the metacommunity arises through a speciation event; at which time, it is randomly assigned a fundamental niche or set of environments/habitats in which it can persist. Within each habitat, species compete with other species that have different but overlapping fundamental niches. Species abundances then change through ecological drift; each, however, is constrained by its maximum niche breadth and by the presence of other species in its habitats. Using our model, we derive analytical expressions for steady-state species abundance distributions, steady-state distributions of niche breadth across individuals and across species, and dynamic distributions of niche breadth across species. With this framework, we identify the conditions that produce the log-series species abundance distribution familiar from neutral models. We then identify how overlapping niche structure can lead to other species abundance distributions and, in particular, ask whether these new distributions differ significantly from species abundance distributions predicted by non-overlapping niche models. Finally, we extend our analysis to consider additional distributions associated with realized niche breadths. Overall, our results show that models with overlapping niches can exhibit behavior similar to neutral models, with the caveat that species with narrow fundamental niche breadths will be very rare. If narrow-niche species are common, it must be because they are in a non-overlapping niche or have countervailing advantages over broad-niche species. This result highlights the role that niches can play in establishing demographic neutrality.     

Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM‐based scenarios to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi‐GCM and multi‐emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between‐GCM variability was greater than the between‐RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi‐GCM and multi‐RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between‐GCM variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties.     

Climate Warming Since the Holocene Accelerates West–East Communication for the Eurasian Temperate Water Strider Species Aquarius paludum

Holocene climate warming has dramatically altered biological diversity and distributions. Recent human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases will exacerbate global warming and thus induce threats to cold-adapted taxa. However, the impacts of this major climate change on transcontinental temperate species are still poorly understood. Here, we generated extensive genomic datasets for a water strider, Aquarius paludum, which was sampled across its entire distribution in Eurasia and used these datasets in combination with ecological niche modeling (ENM) to elucidate the influence of the Holocene and future climate warming on its population structure and demographic history. We found that A. paludum consisted of two phylogeographic lineages that diverged in the middle Pleistocene, which resulted in a “west–east component” genetic pattern that was probably triggered by Central Asia-Mongoxin aridification and Pleistocene glaciations. The diverged western and eastern lineages had a second contact in the Holocene, which shaped a temporary hybrid zone located at the boundary of the arid–semiarid regions of China. Future predictions detected a potentially novel northern corridor to connect the western and eastern populations, indicating west–east gene flow would possibly continue to intensify under future warming climate conditions. Further integrating phylogeographic and ENM analyses of multiple Eurasian temperate taxa based on published studies reinforced our findings on the “west–east component” genetic pattern and the predicted future northern corridor for A. paludum. Our study provided a detailed paradigm from a phylogeographic perspective of how transcontinental temperate species differ from cold-adapted taxa in their response to climate warming.