Criteria of reproductive success

To determine reproductive success, it is necessary for the researcher to specify a criterion of success, such as the number of a parent's offspring living to the age of reproduction. A measurement model, which includes the researcher's choice of criterion, has been proposed to estimate the lifetime reproductive success (R) of long-lived animals from complete or incomplete knowledge of the reproductive life histories of mothers and the survival fates of offspring. This research uses R and data from female baboons of Mikumi National Park, Tanzania, as vehicles to investigate the relationship between reproductive success and several criteria. Secondarily, it also investigates the relationship between R and the number and rate of offspring production. Seven criteria of reproductive success, ranging in 12-month increments from 0 (birth) to 72 months of offspring life, were applied to 10.5 years of reproductive data from 61 Mikumi females. Theoretically, the best scenario for comparative purposes is an invariant R across different criteria; however, the mean R systematically increased as the criteria increased. This is more an inconvenience than a serious problem because high correlations indicate high predictability between Rs from pairs of criteria. R was modestly correlated with the rate of offspring production, indicating that rate can be employed as a rough index of reproductive success. The choice of a criterion is a trade off between theory, practicality, the strength of the criterion, and the effect of the choice upon sample representativeness and size. Am. J. Primatol. 41:87–101, 1997. © 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Estimating reproductive success of primates and other animals with long and incompletely known reproductive life spans

Lifetime reproductive success is difficult to obtain for adequate numbers of wild, long-lived animals because of incomplete knowledge of reproductive life histories and fates of offspring. A procedure is described that provides a standard estimate of lifetime reproductive success from either complete or incomplete reproductive life spans. For this procedure, reproductive success is defined as the following ratio: the number of offspring living to a criterion age in a given time period divided by the number expected for that age and period. The number expected is based upon the mean inter-birth interval of the population, the length of the time period, the age criterion of reproductive success chosen by the researcher (e.g., the average age of menarche), and the probability that an offspring will live to the criterion age. The effect of error upon the estimation of parameters is analyzed using the yellow baboons of Mikumi National Park as an example. The method can be used for both sexes, any litter (clutch) size, any mating system, any mean length of interbirth interval, any age criterion of reproductive success, and any study length that allows a reasonably sized sample of individuals for each of whom a substantial proportion of their reproductive life span is known. © 1992 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Lifetime reproductive success, longevity, and reproductive life history of female yellow baboons (Papio cynocephalus) of Mikumi National Park, Tanzania

The relationship between longevity and lifetime reproductive success (LRS) was studied in free-ranging female baboons of Mikumi National Park, Tanzania. A severe population decline occurred between the 12th and 20th years of the study. The total sample consisted of 72 females born and reaching adulthood before the start of the population decline. There were 27 females who were adult at the start of the study and 45 who became adult within the 12 years prior to the decline. The subjects were studied until all 72 were dead and all of their offspring were either dead or at least six years old; this took 24 years. The relationship of longevity to LRS was statistically significant for the total sample and for both sub-samples, with 70% of the total variance in LRS accounted for by longevity. Longevity was linked to LRS via a chain of statistically significant relationships: The longer the life span, the longer the reproductive life; the longer the reproductive life, the more offspring produced; the more offspring produced, the higher the LRS. Mean LRS, life span, and reproductive longevity all differed between the two sub-samples. Since the sub-samples were time-linked to a population decline affecting longevity, either sub-sample separately would fail to reflect the broader picture. This illustrates the importance of appreciable sample sizes from long-term studies in helping understand the dynamics between life history estimates and ecological conditions in variable environments.     

Lifetime reproductive success in female Japanese macaques

Lifetime reproductive success, measured by the number of offspring surviving to age five, varied from 0 to 10 in a group of 33 provisioned female Japanese macaques. Of the three contributors to reproductive success, the number of reproductive years, fecundity per year and survivorship of offspring to reproductive age, the first accounted for two-thirds of the variation. Fecundity per year and survivorship were negatively correlated, indicating reproductive costs of reducing interbirth interval. No other demographic measure used, nor the behavioral measure 'dominance rank', significantly correlated with lifetime reproductive success or its components. Age-specific changes in fecundity and infant survival were not found for this sample, neither could cessation of reproduction, even in very old females, be demonstrated.     

Territory Quality and Plumage Morph Predict Offspring Sex Ratio Variation in a Raptor

Parents may adapt their offspring sex ratio in response to their own phenotype and environmental conditions. The most significant causes for adaptive sex-ratio variation might express themselves as different distributions of fitness components between sexes along a given variable. Several causes for differential sex allocation in raptors with reversed sexual size dimorphism have been suggested. We search for correlates of fledgling sex in an extensive dataset on common buzzards Buteo buteo, a long-lived bird of prey. Larger female offspring could be more resource-demanding and starvation-prone and thus the costly sex. Prominent factors such as brood size and laying date did not predict nestling sex. Nonetheless, lifetime sex ratio (LSR, potentially indicative of individual sex allocation constraints) and overall nestling sex were explained by territory quality with more females being produced in better territories. Additionally, parental plumage morphs and the interaction of morph and prey abundance tended to explain LSR and nestling sex, indicating local adaptation of sex allocation However, in a limited census of nestling mortality, not females but males tended to die more frequently in prey-rich years. Also, although females could have potentially longer reproductive careers, a subset of our data encompassing full individual life histories showed that longevity and lifetime reproductive success were similarly distributed between the sexes. Thus, a basis for adaptive sex allocation in this population remains elusive. Overall, in common buzzards most major determinants of reproductive success appeared to have no effect on sex ratio but sex allocation may be adapted to local conditions in morph-specific patterns.     

Life history and the competitive environment: trajectories of growth,maturation, and reproductive output among chacma baboons

The social environment is a key feature influencing primate life histories. Chacma baboons (Papio hamadryas ursinus) are a female-bonded species with a strict linear dominance hierarchy. In this species, the allocation of energy to competing demands of growth and reproduction is hypothesized to vary as a function of competitive ability, which in turn increases with social rank. Since growth rate is a major component of life history models, measures of age-specific growth were used to analyze variation in life history traits across social ranks. Weights of 42 immature baboons were obtained without sedation or baiting from a troop of well-habituated chacma baboons in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. Using demographic and weight data from this wild population, five main findings emerged: 1) Weight for age and growth rate of infant and juvenile females are positively associated with maternal rank. 2) Male growth is not influenced by maternal rank. 3) Female growth shows smaller variation across feeding conditions than male growth. 4) Low-ranking adult females continue investment in offspring through prolonged lactation until they reach a weight comparable to that of high-ranking infants. 5) The benefit of rank to reproductive success shown in this study is 0.83 additional offspring. Reproductive span determined predominantly by age at maturation contributes 27-38% to the difference in expected number of offspring by rank, vs. 62-73% due to reproductive rate. These findings have major implications for understanding the role of social environment in phenotypic plasticity of life history traits, and in the evolution of primate life histories.     

Lifetime offspring production in relation to breeding lifespan, attractiveness, and mating status in male collared flycatchers

As a comprehensive fitness parameter, lifetime reproductive success (LRS) is influenced by many different environmental and genetic factors, among which longevity is one of the most important. These factors can be reflected in secondary sexual characters, which may affect the life histories of individuals via social relations with conspecifics. Facultative polygyny in birds is another conspicuous reproductive trait that potentially increases male reproductive success, but lifetime success data in relation to polygyny are scarce. Here, we used 17?years of breeding data to quantify the LRS of male collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) on the basis of lifetime recruitment of offspring. Breeding lifespan showed a positive relationship with LRS, and it was also significantly associated with mean recruitment of offspring per breeding year. Body size and sexually selected forehead patch size did not predict the number of recruits. Polygyny was positively associated with LRS, but when we corrected for lifespan, this relationship disappeared. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between longevity and LRS is not explained by the higher number of reproductive attempts when living longer, and question the adaptive value of polygyny in this population. The lack of association between forehead patch size and recruitment suggests that forehead patch is a poor indicator of phenotypic quality in our birds.     

Determinants of reproductive success in female Columbian ground squirrels

Summary We studied the reproductive success of female Columbian ground squirrels (Spermophilus columbianus) in southwestern Alberta for nine years. We defined reproductive success as the number of offspring surviving their first hibernation, classified as yearlings. The number of weaned juveniles explained one third of the variance in number of yearlings at emergence from their first hibernation the following spring, and much of the variance in individual reproductive success originated after weaning. Weight of adult females at emergence from hibernation was correlated with annual reproductive success. The mother's survival beyond weaning and the subsequent winter's snow accumulation had positive effects on annual reproductive success, whereas population density and summer temperature had negative effects. We found no effects on annual reproductive success of date of litter emergence, weight at emergence as a yearling, presence or absence of adult kin, distance from the natal site, location within the study area, winter temperature or summer precipitation. Age of first breeding did not affect lifetime reproductive success, which ranged from 0 to 19 yearlings produced over a lifetime. The greatest source of variation in lifetime reproductive success for females surviving to breeding age was offspring survival, followed by reproductive lifespan.     

Life-history theory, fertility and reproductive success in humans

According to life-history theory, any organism that maximizes fitness will face a trade-off between female fertility and offspring survivorship. This trade-off has been demonstrated in a variety of species, but explicit tests in humans have found a positive linear relationship between fitness and fertility. The failure to demonstrate a maximum beyond which additional births cease to enhance fitness is potentially at odds with the view that human fertility behaviour is currently adaptive. Here we report, to our knowledge, the first clear evidence for the predicted nonlinear relationship between female fertility and reproductive success in a human population, the Dogon of Mali, West Africa. The predicted maximum reproductive success of 4.1+/-0.3 surviving offspring was attained at a fertility of 10.5 births. Eighty-three per cent of the women achieved a lifetime fertility level (7-13 births) for which the predicted mean reproductive success was within the confidence limits (3.4 to 4.8) for reproductive success at the optimal fertility level. Child mortality, rather than fertility, was the primary determinant of fitness. Since the Dogon people are farmers, our results do not support the assumptions that: (i) contemporary foragers behave more adaptively than agriculturalists, and (ii) that adaptive fertility behaviour ceased with the Neolithic revolution some 9000 years ago. We also present a new method that avoids common biases in measures of reproductive success.     

Life span,reproductive output,and reproductive opportunity in captive Goeldi's monkeys (Callimico goeldii)

In the absence of long‐term field studies, demographic and reproductive records from animals housed in zoos and research laboratories are a valuable tool for the study of life history variables relating to reproduction. In this study, we analyzed studbook records of more than 2,000 individuals born over a 40‐year period (1965–2004) to describe life history patterns of captive Goeldi's monkeys (Callimico goeldii) housed in North America and Europe. Using Kaplan–Meier survival analysis methods, we found the mean life span to be 5.5 years. The rate of infant mortality, defined as death before 30 days, was approximately 30%, with European animals being more likely to survive infancy than North American animals. When individuals surviving at least 1.5 years are considered, lifetime reproductive output averaged 3.5 offspring, yet more than one‐third of individuals did not produce any offspring. Using a smaller dataset of individuals with known pairing histories, we developed a measure of opportunity for reproduction (OFR), which represented the total time an individual was known to be housed with a potential mate. For both sexes, we found that the correlation between OFR and number of offspring produced was much higher than the correlation between life span and number of offspring produced. This result highlights the importance of taking into account an individual's OFR. As a whole, our findings help characterize the life histories of captive Goeldi's monkeys and emphasize the impact management practices may have on reproductive success. Zoo Biol 29:1–15, 2010. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Longevity in cheetahs: the key to success?

An understanding of the factors governing reproductive success has fundamental implications for population demography, conservation, selection and adaptation. Although a consistent positive correlation between lifetime reproductive success and longevity has been reported for many iteroparous organisms, few studies have explored how longevity influences annual individual performance. In this study we show (1) that longevity and lifetime reproductive success are positively but not linearly correlated, (2) that short-lived individuals have higher annual reproductive success, (3) that the generally lower success of the last breeding occasion increased with females' longevity, and (4) that long-lived females have higher chances of rearing long-lived females. We suggest that experience and the increase in the number of reproductive events with longevity are key processes leading to a strong correlation between (1) lifetime reproductive success and longevity and (2) mother and daughter longevities. Our results demonstrate the importance of long term studies that follow multiple generations in gaining a full understanding of the factors affecting reproductive success.     

The effects of dominance rank and group size on female lifetime reproductive success in wild long-tailed macaques,Macaca fascicularis

Demographic changes were recorded throughout a 12-year period for three social groups ofMacaca fascicularis in a natural population at Ketambe (Sumatra, Indonesia). We examined the prediction that females' lifetime reproductive success depended on dominance rank and group size. Average birth rate was 0.53 (184 infants born during 349 female years). For mature females (aged 8–20 yr) birth rate reflected physical condition, being higher in years with high food availability and lower in the year following the production of a surviving infant. High-ranking females were significantly more likely than low-ranking ones to give birth again when they did have a surviving offspring born the year before (0.50 vs 0.26), especially in years with relatively low food availability (0.37 vs 0.10). Controlled comparisons of groups at different sizes indicate a decline in birth rate with rroup size only once a group has exceeded a certain size. The dominance effect on birth rate tended to be strongest in large groups. Survival of infants was rank-dependent, but the survival of juveniles was not. There was a trend for offspring survival to be lower in large groups than in mid-sized or small groups. However, rank and group size interacted, in that rank effects on offspring survival were strongest in large groups. High-ranking females were less likely to die themselves during their top-reproductive years, and thus on average had longer reproductive careers. We estimated female lifetime reproductive success based on calculated age-specific birth rates and survival rates. The effects of rank and group size (contest and scramble) on birth rate, offspring survival, age of first reproduction for daughters, and length of reproductive career, while not each consistently statistically significant, added up to substantial effects on estimated lifetime reproductive success. The group size effects explain why large groups tend to split permanently. Since females are philopatric in this species, and daughters achieve dominance rank positions similar to their mother, a close correlation is suggested between the lifetime reproductive success of mothers and daughters. For sons, too, maternal dominance affected their reproductive success: high-born males were more likely to become top-dominant (in another group). These data support the idea that natural selection has favored the evolution of a nepotistic rank system in this species, even if the annual benefits of dominance are small.     

Long-Lasting Effects of Maternal Condition in Free-Ranging Cervids

Causes of phenotypic variation are fundamental to evolutionary ecology because they influence the traits acted upon by natural selection. One such cause of phenotypic variation is a maternal effect, which is the influence of the environment experienced by a female (and her corresponding phenotype) on the phenotype of her offspring (independent of the offspring’s genotype). While maternal effects are well documented, the longevity and fitness impact of these effects remains unclear because it is difficult to follow free-living individuals through their reproductive lifetimes. For long-lived species, it has been suggested that maternal effects are masked by environmental variables acting on offspring in years following the period of dependence. Our objective was to use indirect measures of maternal condition to determine if maternal effects have long-lasting influences on male offspring in two species of cervid. Because antlers are sexually selected, we used measures of antler size at time of death, 1.5–21.5 years after gestation to investigate maternal effects. We quantified antler size of 11,000 male elk and mule deer born throughout the intermountain western US (6 states) over nearly 30 years. Maternal condition during development was estimated indirectly using a suite of abiotic variables known to influence condition of cervids (i.e., winter severity, spring and summer temperature, and spring and summer precipitation). Antler size of male cervids was significantly associated with our indirect measure of maternal condition during gestation and lactation. Assuming the correctness of our indirect measure, our findings demonstrate that antler size is a sexually selected trait that is influenced–into adulthood–by maternal condition. This link emphasizes the importance of considering inherited environmental effects when interpreting population dynamics or examining reproductive success of long-lived organisms.     

Selection on male longevity in a monogamous human population: late-life survival brings no additional grandchildren

Humans are exceptionally long-lived for mammals of their size. In men, lifespan is hypothesized to evolve from benefits of reproduction throughout adult life. We use multi-generational data from pre-industrial Finland, where remarriage was possible only after spousal death, to test selection pressures on male longevity in four monogamous populations. Men showed several behaviours consistent with attempting to accrue direct fitness throughout adult life and sired more children in their lifetimes if they lost their first wife and remarried. However, remarriage did not increase grandchild production because it compromised the success of motherless first-marriage offspring. Overall, grandchild production was not improved by living beyond 51 years and was reduced by living beyond 65. Our results highlight the importance of using grandchild production to understand selection on human life-history traits. We conclude that selection for (or enforcement of) lifetime monogamy will select for earlier reproductive investment and against increased lifespan in men.     

Serum immunoglobulin G levels are positively related to reproductive performance in a long-lived seabird, the common tern (Sterna hirundo)

The evolution of longevity requires a low risk of mortality from extrinsic factors, relative to intrinsic factors, so that individuals that differentially invest in physiological self-maintenance and minimize their annual reproductive costs will maximize lifetime fitness through a prolonged reproductive lifespan. The trade-off between reproductive effort and self-maintenance, as measured by immune function, has been well documented in short-lived birds, but is difficult to demonstrate in long-lived birds. To assess self-maintenance in a long-lived seabird, we measured serum protein levels, including immunoglobulin G (IgG = IgY), in 30 breeding pairs of common terns (Sterna hirundo) and their first-hatched (A) chicks. Most parents were of known age from banding as hatchlings; our sample was selected to contrast young breeders (6–9 years) with very old birds (17–23 years). Body-mass of the parents declined by 5% during the chick-rearing period, while serum protein levels were stable. Serum IgG levels were higher in parents of offspring with faster growth rates, while IgG levels were lower in parents whose broods were reduced by starvation. A-chicks in broods of two had higher IgG levels than singleton chicks. Albumin levels were not related to reproductive performance. Thus, despite adequate statistical power, we could find no evidence for a trade-off between reproduction and self-maintenance in common terns, even in old age. The results are consistent with life-history predictions for long-lived vertebrates, in which selection favors sustained self-maintenance across the reproductive lifespan. The positive relationships between IgG levels and reproductive performance indicate that IgG can be used as an index of parental “quality.”     

Clutch size, offspring performance, and intergenerational fitness

It is now generally recognized that clutch size affects morethan offspring number. In particular, clutch size affects asuite of traits associated with offspring reproductive performance.Optimal clutch size is therefore determined not by the numericallymost productive clutch but by the clutch that maximizes collectiveoffspring reproductive success. Calculation of optimal clutchsize thus requires a consideration of ecological factors operatingduring an intergenerational time frame, spanning the lifetimeof the egglaying adult and the lifetimes of her offspring. Theoptimal clutch cannot define reproductive values in advance,but instead requires that the strategy chosen is the best responseto the set of reproductive values that it itself generates.In this article, we introduce methods for solving this problem,based on an iterative solution of the equation characterizingexpected lifetime reproductive success. We begin by consideringa semelparous organism, in which case lifetime reproductivesuccess is a function only of the state of the organism. Foran iteroparous organism, lifetime reproductive success dependsupon both state and time, so that our methods extend the usualstochastic dynamic programming approach to the evaluation oflifetime reproductive success. The methods are intuitive andeasily used. We consider both semelparous and iteroparous organisms,stable and varying environments, and describe how our methodscan be employed empirically.     

Lifetime reproductive success of female mountain gorillas

Studies of lifetime reproductive success (LRS) are important for understanding population dynamics and life history strategies, yet relatively little information is available for long-lived species. This study provides a preliminary assessment of LRS among female mountain gorillas in the Virunga volcanoes region. Adult females produced an average of 3.6 ± 2.1 surviving offspring during their lifetime, which indicates a growing population that contrasts with most other great apes. The standardized variance in LRS (variance/mean(2) = 0.34) was lower than many other mammals and birds. When we excluded the most apparent source of environmental variability (poaching), the average LRS increased to 4.3 ± 1.8 and the standardized variance dropped in half. Adult lifespan was a greater source of variance in LRS than fertility or offspring survival. Females with higher LRS had significantly longer adult lifespans and higher dominance ranks. Results for LRS were similar to another standard fitness measurement, the individually estimated finite rate of increase (λ(ind) ), but λ(ind) showed diminishing benefits for greater longevity.     

Variation in annual and lifetime reproductive success of lance-tailed manakins: alpha experience mitigates effects of senescence on siring success

The causes of variation in individual reproductive success over a lifetime are not well understood. In long-lived vertebrates, reproductive output usually increases during early adulthood, but it is difficult to disentangle the roles of development and learning on this gain of reproductive success. Lekking lance-tailed manakins provide an opportunity to separate these processes, as the vast majority of male reproduction occurs after a bird obtains alpha status and maintains a display area in the lek, but the age at which males achieve alpha status varies widely. Using 11 years of longitudinal data on age, social status and genetic siring success, I assessed the factors influencing variation in siring success by individuals over their lifetimes. The data show increases in annual reproductive success with both age and alpha experience. At advanced ages, these gains were offset by senescence in fecundity. Individual ontogeny, rather than compositional change of the population, generated a nonlinear relationship of breeding tenure with lifetime success; age of assuming alpha status was unrelated to tenure as a breeder, or success in the alpha role. Importantly, these findings suggest that social experience can mitigate the negative effects of senescence in older breeders.     

The effect of differential reproductive success on population genetic structure: correlations of life history with matrilines in humpback whales of the gulf of maine

To examine whether demographic and life-history traits are correlated with genetic structure, we contrasted mtDNA lineages of individual humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) with sighting and reproductive histories of female humpback whales between 1979 and 1995. Maternal lineage haplotypes were obtained for 323 whales, either from direct sequencing of the mtDNA control region (n = 159) or inferred from known relationships along matrilines from the sequenced sample of individuals (n = 164). Sequence variation in the 550 bp of the control region defined a total of 19 maternal lineage haplotypes that formed two main clades. Fecundity increased significantly over the study period among females of several lineages among the two clades. Individual maternal lineages and other clades were characterized by significant variation in fecundity. The detected heterogeneity of reproductive success has the potential to substantially affect the frequency and distribution of maternal lineages found in this population over time. There were significant yearly effects on adult resighting rates and calf survivorship based on examination of sighting histories with varying capture-recapture probability models. These results indicate that population structure can be influenced by interactions or associations between reproductive success, genetic structure, and environmental factors in a natural population of long-lived mammals.     

Life history of the long-lived gynodioecious cushion plant Silene acaulis (Caryophyllaceae), inferred from size-based population projection matrices

Alpine plants often appear to have long life-spans as an adaptation to harsh and unpredictable environmental conditions, yet many lack reliable indicators of age that would make it possible to determine their true longevity. Their extended life-spans also pose problems for measuring lifetime reproductive success, a key component of breeding system evolution in species such as the gynodioecious cushion plant Silene acaulis. For a population of S. acaulis in south-central Alaska, we applied a recently derived analytical approach using size-based population projection matrices that allowed us to estimate: (1) the relationship between cushion diameter and age; and (2) lifetime reproductive success through seed production by females relative to hermaphrodites. Because of a combination of slow growth, frequent shrinkage, and extremely high adult survival, we estimate that the largest cushions in our study population exceed 300 yr in age, and some may live substantially longer, despite the seemingly inhospitable alpine environment they inhabit. Females are estimated to produce 4.4 times as many offspring via seed production over the course of their lives as do hermaphrodites, a difference that is more than sufficient to assure the persistence of females despite their inability to transmit genes through pollen. These results highlight the utility of size-based projection matrices for studying the life histories of herbaceous perennials whose life-span and lifetime reproductive success cannot be determined easily by any other means.