Nonlinearity in interspecific interactions in response to climate change: Cod and haddock as an example

Climate change has profound ecological effects, yet our understanding of how trophic interactions among species are affected by climate change is still patchy. The sympatric Atlantic haddock and cod are co‐occurring across the North Atlantic. They compete for food at younger stages and thereafter the former is preyed by the latter. Climate change might affect the interaction and coexistence of these two species. Particularly, the increase in sea temperature (ST) has been shown to affect distribution, population growth and trophic interactions in marine systems. We used 33‐year long time series of haddock and cod abundances estimates from two data sources (acoustic and trawl survey) to analyse the dynamic effect of climate on the coexistence of these two sympatric species in the Arcto‐Boreal Barents Sea. Using a Bayesian state‐space threshold model, we demonstrated that long‐term climate variation, as expressed by changes of ST, affected species demography through different influences on density‐independent processes. The interaction between cod and haddock has shifted in the last two decades due to an increase in ST, altering the equilibrium abundances and the dynamics of the system. During warm years (ST over ca. 4°C), the increase in the cod abundance negatively affected haddock abundance while it did not during cold years. This change in interactions therefore changed the equilibrium population size with a higher population size during warm years. Our analyses show that long‐term climate change in the Arcto‐Boreal system can generate differences in the equilibrium conditions of species assemblages.     

An analysis of allozyme variation in herring <Emphasis Type="Italic">Clupea pallasii</Emphasis> from the White and Barents Seas

An analysis of genetic variation is made according to four allozyme loci of reproductive (spawning) groups of oligovertebrate herring Clupea pallasii collected in various bays of the White Sea and the south-eastern part of the Barents Sea in 1995–2002. The temporal stability of genetic characteristics during several years is shown. The analysis of genetic variation revealed a significant difference between herring from the south-eastern part of the Barents Sea and spring-spawning and summer-spawning herring from inner bays of the White Sea. The analysis of geographic variation of genetic characteristics of spawning aggregations revealed the change in frequencies of alleles of loci LDH-2* and MDH-4* from the north-east to the south-west along the coast.     

Climate change and the population collapse during the “Great Famine” in pre‐industrial Europe

Population dynamics, economy, and human demography started with Malthus, the idea that population growth is limited by resources and “positive checks” occur when population growth overshoots the available resources. In fact, historical evidence indicates that long‐term climate changes have destabilized civilizations and caused population collapses via food shortages, diseases, and wars. One of the worst population collapses of human societies occurred during the early fourteenth century in northern Europe; the “Great Famine” was the consequence of the dramatic effects of climate deterioration on human population growth. Thus, part of my motivation was to demonstrate that simple theoretical‐based models can be helpful in understanding the causes of population change in preindustrial societies. Here, the results suggest that a logistic model with temperature as a “lateral” perturbation effect is the key element for explaining the population collapse exhibited by the European population during the “Great Famine”.     

Climate warming effects on the Olea europaea–Bactrocera oleae system in Mediterranean islands: Sardinia as an example

Global warming will affect all species but in largely unknown ways, with certain regions such as the Mediterranean Basin and its major islands including Sardinia being particularly vulnerable to desertification. Olive ( Olea europaea ) is of eco-social importance in the Mediterranean where it was domesticated. This drought-resistant crop and its major pest, the olive fly ( Bactrocera oleae ), have tight biological links that make them a suitable model system for climate change studies in the Mediterranean. Here a physiologically based weather-driven demographic model of olive and olive fly is used to analyze in detail this plant–pest system in Sardinia under observed weather (10 years of daily data from 48 locations), three climate warming scenarios (increases of 1, 2 and 3 °C in average daily temperature), and a 105-year climate model scenario for the Alghero location (e.g. 1951–2055). grass gis is used to map model predictions of olive bloom dates and yield, total season-long olive fly pupae, and percent fruit attacked by the fly. Island wide simulation data are summarized using multivariate regression. Model calibration with field bloom date data were performed to increase simulation accuracy of olive flowering predictions under climate change. As climate warms, the range of olive is predicted to expand to higher altitudes and consolidate elsewhere, especially in coastal areas. The range of olive fly will extend into previously unfavorable cold areas, but will contract in warm inland lowlands where temperatures approach its upper thermal limits. Consequently, many areas of current high risk are predicted to have decreased risk of fly damage with climate warming. Simulation using a 105-year climate model scenario for Alghero, Sardinia predicts changes in the olive–olive fly system expected to occur if climate continued to warm at the low rate observed during in the past half century.     

Intraspecific DNA contamination distorts subtle population structure in a marine fish: Decontamination of herring samples before restriction‐site associated sequencing and its effects on population genetic statistics

Wild specimens are often collected in challenging field conditions, where samples may be contaminated with the DNA of conspecific individuals. This contamination can result in false genotype calls, which are difficult to detect, but may also cause inaccurate estimates of heterozygosity, allele frequencies and genetic differentiation. Marine broadcast spawners are especially problematic, because population genetic differentiation is low and samples are often collected in bulk and sometimes from active spawning aggregations. Here, we used contaminated and clean Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) samples to test (a) the efficacy of bleach decontamination, (b) the effect of decontamination on RAD genotypes and (c) the consequences of contaminated samples on population genetic analyses. We collected fin tissue samples from actively spawning (and thus contaminated) wild herring and nonspawning (uncontaminated) herring. Samples were soaked for 10 min in bleach or left untreated, and extracted DNA was used to prepare DNA libraries using a restriction site‐associated DNA (RAD) approach. Our results demonstrate that intraspecific DNA contamination affects patterns of individual and population variability, causes an excess of heterozygotes and biases estimates of population structure. Bleach decontamination was effective at removing intraspecific DNA contamination and compatible with RAD sequencing, producing high‐quality sequences, reproducible genotypes and low levels of missing data. Although sperm contamination may be specific to broadcast spawners, intraspecific contamination of samples may be common and difficult to detect from high‐throughput sequencing data and can impact downstream analyses.     

The effects of cyclic dynamics and mating system on the effective size of an island mouflon population

The Haute Island mouflon (Ovis aries) population is isolated on one small (6.5 km2) island of the remote Kerguelen archipelago. Given a promiscuous mating system, a cyclic demography and a strong female-biased sex ratio after population crashes, we expected a low effective population size (Ne). We estimated Ne using demographic and temporal genetic approaches based on genetic information at 25 microsatellite loci from 62 and 58 mouflons sampled in 1988 and 2003, respectively. Genetic Ne estimates were higher than expected, varying between 104 and 250 depending on the methods used. Both demographic and genetic approaches show the Haute Island Ne is buffered against population crashes. The unexpectedly high Ne likely results from the cyclic winter crashes that allow young males to reproduce, limiting the variance of male reproductive success. Based on individual-based simulations, we suggest that despite a strongly female-biased sex ratio, the effects of the mating system on the effective population size more closely resemble random mating or weak polygyny.     

Population dynamics of the glacial relict amphipods in a subarctic lake: role of density‐dependent and density‐independent factors

Relative role of intrinsic density‐dependent factors (such as inter‐ and intraspecific competition, predation) and extrinsic density‐independent factors (environmental changes) in population dynamics is a key issue in ecology. Density‐dependent mechanisms are considered as important drivers of population dynamics in many vertebrate and insect species; however, their influence on the population dynamics of freshwater invertebrates is not clearly understood. In this study, I examined interannual variations in the abundance of the glacial relict amphipod Monoporeia affinis in a small subarctic lake based on long‐term (2002–2019) monitoring data. The results suggest that the population dynamics of amphipods in the lake is influenced by the combined effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The reproductive success of amphipod cohorts was inversely related to its initial abundance, indicating it is influenced by density‐dependent factors. M. affinis recruitment was negatively correlated with population density and near‐bottom temperature but positively correlated with food availability, which is defined as the concentration of chlorophyll a. Multiple regression with chlorophyll, temperature, and abundance of parent cohort as independent factors explained about 80% of the variation in the reproductive success of amphipods. The negative correlation between amphipod recruitment and water temperature indicates that the current climate conditions adversely affect the populations of glacial relict amphipods even in cold‐water lakes of the subarctic zone. Results of this study can be useful in environmental assessments to separate population oscillations connected with density‐dependent mechanisms from human‐mediated changes.     

Population dynamics in changing environments: the case of an eruptive forest pest species

In recent decades we have seen rapid and co‐occurring changes in landscape structure, species distributions and even climate as consequences of human activity. Such changes affect the dynamics of the interaction between major forest pest species, such as bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), and their host trees. Normally breeding mostly in broken or severely stressed spruce; at high population densities some bark beetle species can colonise and kill healthy trees on scales ranging from single trees in a stand to multi‐annual landscape‐wide outbreaks. In Eurasia, the largest outbreaks are caused by the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (Linnaeus), which is common and shares a wide distribution with its main host, Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.). A large literature is now available, from which this review aims to synthesize research relevant for the population dynamics of I. typographus and co‐occurring species under changing conditions. We find that spruce bark beetle population dynamics tend to be metastable, but that mixed‐species and age‐heterogeneous forests with good site‐matching tend to be less susceptible to large‐scale outbreaks. While large accumulations of logs should be removed and/or debarked before the next swarming period, intensive removal of all coarse dead wood may be counterproductive, as it reduces the diversity of predators that in some areas may play a role in keeping I. typographus populations below the outbreak threshold, and sanitary logging frequently causes edge effects and root damage, reducing the resistance of remaining trees. It is very hard to predict the outcome of interspecific interactions due to invading beetle species or I. typographus establishing outside its current range, as they can be of varying sign and strength and may fluctuate depending on environmental factors and population phase. Most research indicates that beetle outbreaks will increase in frequency and magnitude as temperature, wind speed and precipitation variability increases, and that mitigating forestry practices should be adopted as soon as possible considering the time lags involved.     

Climate warming effects on grape and grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) in the Palearctic region

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Individual-based spatially-explicit model of an herbivore and its resource: the effect of habitat reduction and fragmentation

We present an individual-based, spatially-explicit model of the dynamics of a small mammal and its resource. The life histories of each individual animal are modeled separately. The individuals can have the status of residents or wanderers and belong to behaviorally differing groups of juveniles or adults and males or females. Their territory defending and monogamous behavior is taken into consideration. The resource, green vegetation, grows depending on seasonal climatic characteristics and is diminished due to the herbivore's grazing. Other specifics such as a varying personal energetic level due to feeding and starvation of the individuals, mating preferences, avoidance of competitors, dispersal of juveniles, as a result of site overgrazing, etc., are included in the model. We determined model parameters from real data for the species Microtus ochrogaster (prairie vole). The simulations are done for a case of an enclosed habitat without predators or other species competitors. The goal of the study is to find the relation between size of habitat and population persistence. The experiments with the model show the populations go extinct due to severe overgrazing, but that the length of population persistence depends on the area of the habitat as well as on the presence of fragmentation. Additionally, the total population size of the vole population obtained during the simulations exhibits yearly fluctuations as well as multi-yearly peaks of fluctuations. This dynamics is similar to the one observed in prairie vole field studies.     

Relative influence of habitat structure,species interactions and rainfall on the post‐fire population dynamics of ground‐dwelling vertebrates

The long‐term impacts of wildfires on animal populations are largely unknown. We used time‐series data based on a tracking index, from coastal NSW spanning 28 years after a wildfire, to investigate the relative influence of habitat structure, species interactions and climate on post‐fire animal population dynamics. The fire had an immediate impact on habitat structure, reducing and simplifying vegetation cover, which then underwent post‐fire successional change including an increase and plateau in tree canopy cover; an increase, stabilization and then decline in shrub cover; and an increase in ground litter cover. Population changes of different animal species were influenced by different components of successional change, but there was also evidence that species interactions were important. For example, bandicoots (Isoodon obesulus and Perameles nasuta combined) increased concurrent with an increase in shrub cover then declined at a faster rate than a direct association with senescing shrub cover would suggest, while the feral cat (Felis catus) population changed with the bandicoot population, suggesting a link between these species. Potoroos (Potorous tridactylus) increased 10 years after the fire concurrent with the closing tree canopy, but there was also evidence of a negative association with feral foxes (Vulpes vulpes). Variation in rainfall did not have significant effects on the population dynamics of any species. Our results suggest that changes in habitat structure play a key role in the post‐fire dynamics of many ground‐dwelling animals and hence different fire regimes are likely to influence animal dynamics through their effects on habitat structure. However, the role of predator–prey interactions, particularly with feral predators, is less clear and further study will require manipulative experiments of predators in conjunction with fire treatments to determine whether feral predator control should be integrated with fire management to improve outcomes for some native species.     

Use of an individual-based model to forecast the effect of climate change on the dynamics, abundance and geographical range of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum in the UK

Slugs are serious agricultural pests and their activity is strongly driven by ambient temperature and soil moisture. The strength of this relationship has been shown through the development of a deterministic model, based upon temperature and soil moisture conditions alone, which accurately describes the population dynamics and abundance of Deroceras reticulatum . Because of this strong climatic dependence, slug abundance and dynamics are likely to be affected by climate change. We used a validated individual-based model (IbM) of D. reticulatum , to assess the effects of climate change on the abundance of this species in the UK. Climatic scenarios were based on the UKCIP02 predictions and constructed using the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The IbM of slugs predicted population dynamics at three time slices (2020s, 2050s and 2080s), and two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. The maximum generation number, the number of population peaks, the number of slug-days in each season, the percentage of years when the population passes over a threshold for damage and the percentage of years in which populations go extinct were investigated. Currently, the south-west of the UK has the best conditions for D. reticulatum to thrive, with the north-east of Scotland having the most adverse. By 2080 under both low- and high-emissions scenarios, the north and west of Scotland will have the most favourable conditions for the survival of this species and the east of the UK and Scotland will have the harshest. By 2080 the climate in the north-west of Scotland will become more like the current climate in south-east England, which explains the shift in the pattern of abundance. The north-west of Scotland will have increased slug damage and south-west England and west-Wales will have decreased slug damage with some changes becoming evident by 2020.     

Effects of climate change and crop planting structure on the abundance of cotton bollworm,Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

The interactions between plants and insects play an important role in ecosystems. Climate change and cropping patterns can affect herbivorous pest insect dynamics. Understanding the reasons for population fluctuations can help improve integrated pest management strategies. Here, a 25‐year dataset on climate, cropping planting structure, and the population dynamics of cotton bollworms (Helicoverpa armigera) from Bachu County, south Xinjiang, China, was analyzed to assess the effects of changes in climate and crop planting structure on the population dynamics of H. armigera. The three generations of H. armigera showed increasing trends in population size with climate warming, especially in the third generation. The relative abundances of the first and second generations decreased, but that of the third generation increased. Rising temperature and precipitation produced different impacts on the development of different generations. The population numbers of H. armigera increased with the increase in the non‐Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton‐planted area. Asynchrony of abrupt changes existed among climate change, crop flowering dates, and the phenology of H. armigera moths. The asynchronous responses in crop flowering dates and phenology of H. armigera to climate warming would expand in the future. The primary factors affecting the first, second, and third generations of moths were T_mean in June, the last appearance date of the second generation of moths, and the duration of the third generation of moths, respectively. To reduce the harm to crops caused by H. armigera, Bt cotton should be widely planted.     

Boom‐bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept

Boom‐bust dynamics – the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline – have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom‐bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom‐bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom‐bust concept. Boom‐bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom‐bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom‐bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom‐bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long‐term data sets that use clear definitions of boom‐bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.     

Comparison of transient and asymptotic perturbation analyses of three epiphytic orchid species growing in coffee plantations in Mexico: effect on conservation decisions

Background: Epiphyte removal forms part of routine management in shade coffee plantations.

Aims: Assess the current status of three population orchids growing in Mexican shaded coffee plantations and evaluate the effect of perturbing the transient behaviour of different life stages.

Methods: We modelled the short-term response of eliminating I) non-reproductive juveniles, or II) reproductive adult plants from coffee bushes, on populations of Oncidium poikilostalix, Lepanthes acuminata and Telipogon helleri (Orchidaceae). First, we calculated the transient dynamics per se and second, we made a perturbation analysis on population inertia. Finally, we made a comparison with a traditional sensitivity analysis.

Results: All three species showed different positive asymptotic growth rate: O. poikilostalix (λmax = 1.106), L. acuminata (λmax = 1.209), and T. helleri (λmax = 1.012). The effect of eliminating the major part of the juvenile or adult orchids gave population inertia in relation to steady state, respectively, (+19%, -24%) for O. poikilostalix, (+17%, -28%) for T. helleri and (+57%, -35%) for L. acuminata.

Conclusions: Eliminating juveniles or adults affects in different ways the short-term dynamics due to differential impact on size stages that have the non-linear effects associated with important disturbances that currently affect orchids growing in coffee plantations.     

Observations on changes in abundance of questing Ixodes ricinus,castor bean tick,over a 35‐year period in the eastern part of its range (Russia,Tula region)

Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae) L. transmit a wide variety of pathogens to vertebrates including viruses, bacteria and protozoa. Understanding of the epidemiology of tick‐borne infections requires basic knowledge of the regional and local factors influencing tick population dynamics. The present study describes the results of monitoring of a questing I. ricinus population, conducted over 35 years (1977–2011) in the eastern, poorly studied part of its range (Russia, Tula region). We have found that the multiannual average abundance of ticks is small and varies depending on the biotope and degree of urban transformation. Tick abundance for the first 14 years of observations (1977–1990) was at the lower limit of the sensitivity of our methods throughout the study area (0.1–0.9 specimens per 1‐km transect). In the following 21 years (1991–2011), a manifold increase in abundance was observed, which reached 18.1 ± 1.8 individuals per 1‐km transect in moist floodplain terraces, and 4.8 ± 0.9 in xerophylic hill woods. Long‐term growth of tick abundance occurred in spite of a relatively constant abundance of small mammals and only minor fluctuations in the abundance of large wild animals. Climate and anthropogenic changes appear to be the main contributors to increased abundance of the tick.     

Environmental dependence of population dynamics and height growth of a subalpine conifer across its vertical distribution: an approach using high‐resolution aerial photographs

Many studies have reported shifts in the altitudinal ranges of plant species in response to recent global warming. However, most studies of tree species have been conducted on a small scale and have focused on tree line ecotones by examining tree rings and age structure on account of the long life spans of the trees. To examine the impact of climate change on forest dynamics at a regional scale, we investigated differences in the population density and canopy height of a Japanese subalpine coniferous species, Abies mariesii, between 1967 and 2003 by analysis of high‐resolution aerial photographs of the Hakkoda Mountains, Honshu, Japan. In 712 plots within the photographs we analyzed which environmental variables (including elevation, aspect, wetness, and distance from moorlands) account for these changes. The population density of A. mariesii decreased below 1000 m a.s.l. and increased above 1300 m a.s.l. It also increased around moorlands, which may provide refugia at low elevations. The rate of increase in canopy height was lowest on the southeastern slopes and on the periphery of the moorlands. The distinct changes in the population density of A. mariesii at its distribution limits probably reflect the responses of the population to climatic changes during three decades. Areas surrounding the moorlands may offer refugia in spite of the poor growing conditions there.     

Simulation of climate‐tick‐host‐landscape interactions: Effects of shifts in the seasonality of host population fluctuations on tick densities

Tick vector systems are comprised of complex climate‐tick‐host‐landscape interactions that are difficult to identify and estimate from empirical observations alone. We developed a spatially‐explicit, individual‐based model, parameterized to represent ecological conditions typical of the south‐central United States, to examine effects of shifts in the seasonal occurrence of fluctuations of host densities on tick densities. Simulated shifts in the seasonal occurrence of periods of high and low host densities affected both the magnitude of unfed tick densities and the seasonality of tick development. When shifting the seasonal densities of all size classes of hosts (small, medium, and large) synchronously, densities of nymphs were affected more by smaller shifts away from the baseline host seasonality than were densities of larval and adult life stages. When shifting the seasonal densities of only a single size‐class of hosts while holding other size classes at their baseline levels, densities of larval, nymph, and adult life stages responded differently. Shifting seasonal densities of any single host‐class earlier resulted in a greater increase in adult tick density than when seasonal densities of all host classes were shifted earlier simultaneously. The mean densities of tick life stages associated with shifts in host densities resulted from system‐level interactions of host availability with tick phenology. For example, shifting the seasonality of all hosts ten weeks earlier resulted in an approximately 30% increase in the relative degree of temporal co‐occurrence of actively host‐seeking ticks and hosts compared to baseline, whereas shifting the seasonality of all hosts ten weeks later resulted in an approximately 70% decrease compared to baseline. Differences among scenarios in the overall presence of active host‐seeking ticks in the system were due primarily to the degree of co‐occurrence of periods of high densities of unfed ticks and periods of high densities of hosts.     

Contrasting traits,contrasting environments,and considerations on population dynamics under a changing climate: an ecophysiological field study of two co‐dominant tree species

The increase in light availability resulting from canopy changes or opening is not always beneficial and can inhibit photosynthesis of tree seedlings already under other environmental stress. Tree seedlings' responses to compounded abiotic stress depend on their life‐history traits, and understanding the variations of such responses is important for understanding population dynamics under a changing climate. In this study we investigate how the photosynthesis of juveniles of two canopy tree species with different life‐history traits, Abies sachalinensis and Betula ermanii, differs in two contrasting sites at a sub‐boreal forest in northern Japan—one under a deciduous canopy (Closed site) and the other at a wide canopy opening (Open site). Seedlings at the Open site had low F_v/F_m (quantum yield of photosystem II) for a longer period than those at the Closed site. Abies sachalinensis at the Closed site showed lower F_v/F_m in spring than those at the Open site, but recovered after the canopy's new leaves flushed, indicating its acclimation to the shaded condition. Mean P_max (light‐saturated photosynthetic rate at ambient CO₂ levels) of A. sachalinensis seedlings was affected by site and air temperature, while B. ermanii seedlings were also affected by precipitation. Only B. ermanii's seedlings presented growth in the period studied, in spite of observed mid‐day drops to F_v/F_m attributed to water‐deficit‐related photoprotection. Results suggest that the climate change predicted for the Hokkaido area may increase the competitive advantage of broad‐leaved deciduous species, such as B. ermanii, in relation to evergreen conifers like A. sachalinensis.     

绿洲农业生态经济系统的结构与功能分析──以张掖绿洲为例

通过分析张掖绿洲农业生态经济系统的结构与功能,发现其种群结构单一、产业结构不甚合理、空间结构脆弱,决定了绿洲功能较差,产投比低下的特点,并据此从可持续发展的角度提出了改善绿洲农业生态经济系统结构、提高其功能的对策与建议.