Investigation of general indicators influencing on forest fire and its susceptibility modeling using different data mining techniques

Forests are living dynamic systems and these unique ecosystems are essential for life on earth. Forest fires are one of the major environmental concerns, economic, and social in the worldwide. The aim of current research is to identify general indicators influencing on forest fire and compare forest fire susceptibility maps based on the boosted regression tree (BRT), generalized additive model (GAM), and random forest (RF) data mining models in the Minudasht Township, Golestan Province, Iran. According to expert opinion and literature review, fifteen condition factors on forest fire have been selected in the study area. These are slope degree, slope aspect, elevation, topographic wetness index (TWI), topographic position index (TPI), plan curvature, wind effect, annual temperature and rainfall, soil texture, distance to roads, rivers, and villages, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and land use. Forest fire locations were identified using MODIS images, historical records, and extensive field checking. 106 (≈70%) locations, out of 151 forest fires identified, were used for models building/training, while the remaining 45 (≈30%) cases were used for the models validation.BRT, GAM, and RF data mining models were used to distinguish between presence and absence of forest fires and its mapping. These algorithms were used to perform feature selection in order to reveal the variables that contribute more to forest fire occurrence. Finally, for validation of models, the area under the curve (AUC) for forest fire susceptibility maps was calculated. The validation of results showed that AUC for three mentioned models varies from 0.7279 to 0.8770 (AUC_BRT = 80.84%, AUC_GAM = 87.70%, and AUC_RF = 72.79%,). Results indicated that the main drivers of forest fire occurrence were annual rainfall, distance to roads, and land use factors. The results can be applied to primary warning, fire suppression resource planning, and allocation work.     

Improving the “chain and tape” method: A combined topography index for marine fish ecology studies

The “chain and tape” method is used to quantify topographic complexity in reef ecology studies, consisting of the ratio of the linear distance between the start and end points of a chain moulded to the surface of the substrate to its stretched length, a measure known as the substrate rugosity (SR) index. This measure has several advantages in the field when compared to other methods, but some weaknesses have been pointed out. However, it is still one of the most frequently used topography measures in reef fish ecology. The present study proposes a combined topography index (CTI) that uses the “chain and tape” method in the field, with results that can match more complex methods, outperforming the traditional SR index. The CTI is structured as a weighted sum of 3 topographic features: SR index, number of corrugations (NC) and maximum vertical relief (MVR), where NC and MVR are given weight coefficients ranging from 0 to 1. In order to establish weight coefficients, fish assemblages were sampled at 6 training sites, representing a topographic complexity gradient. A series of candidate weight combinations were then selected so that CTI was optimally correlated with each one of several fish assemblage parameters. The list of possible solutions was then applied to nine previously published schematic profiles and compared with other methods. The final index was established as: CTI = (1 − SR) + NC/25 + MVR/25. Ultimately, the predictive performance of CTI and SR was tested by applying them to 11 new sites as predictors of species abundances in distance-based linear models. The CTI outperformed SR when added to 3 previously fitted variables (depth, percent cover of sand, percent cover of cobble), explaining 5.6% additional variation when using all species and 8.1% when using only cryptobenthic species, whereas SR showed no significant additional effects.     

Diversity and spatial clustering of shade trees affect cacao yield and pathogen pressure in Costa Rican agroforests

The importance of the spatial organisation of individuals in explaining species coexistence within a community is widely recognised. However, few analyses of spatial structure have been performed on tropical agroforests.The main objective of this study was to highlight the links between spatial organisation of shade trees on the one hand, and shade tree species richness and cacao yield on the other, using data from 29 cacao agroforests in Costa Rica.A method of spatial statistics, Ripley's K-function, was used to analyse the spatial organisation of shade and cacao trees in the study plots. For each stand, the X and Y coordinates of ≥2.5-m-tall trees were recorded. In each plot we also assessed shade tree species richness and cacao yield (with total number of pods = number of pods damaged by frosty pod rot + number of healthy pods).Three types of stands were identified: the first was characterised by significant clustering of shade trees, the highest shade tree species richness (S = 6), and the highest number of damaged pods (139 pods ha^?1 year^?1). The second type was characterised by random spatial organisation of shade trees. The third type showed a trend towards regular organisation. Species richness of shade trees did not differ significantly between the last two types (S = 4 for both), nor did the number of damaged pods (56 pods ha^?1 year^?1 and 67 pods ha^?1 year^?1 respectively).Although the trends were not statistically significant for all the variables in our data set, the clustered spatial structure appears to favour a synergy between environmental (tree species richness), and provisioning (cacao production) services.     

Development of a macrophyte-based index of biotic integrity for Minnesota lakes

Traditional approaches for managing aquatic resources have often failed to account for effects of anthropogenic disturbances on biota that are not directly reflected by chemical and physical proxies of environmental condition. The index of biotic integrity (IBI) is a potentially effective assessment method to integrate ecological, functional, and structural aspects of aquatic systems. A macrophyte-based IBI was developed for Minnesota lakes to assess the ability of aquatic plant communities to indicate environmental condition. The index was developed using quantitative point intercept vegetation surveys for 97 lakes that represent a range of limnological and watershed characteristics. We followed an approach similar to that used in Wisconsin to develop the aquatic macrophyte community index (AMCI). Regional adaptation of the AMCI required the identification of species representative of macrophyte communities in Minnesota. Metrics and scaling methods were also substantially modified to produce a more empirically robust index. Regression analyses indicated that IBI scores reflected statewide differences in lake trophic state (R² = 0.57, F = 130.3, df = 1, 95, p < 0.005), agricultural (R² = 0.51, F = 83.0, df = 1, 79, p < 0.005), urban (R² = 0.22, F = 23.0, df = 1, 79, p < 0.005), and forested land uses (R² = 0.51, F = 84.7, df = 1, 79, p < 0.005), and county population density (R² = 0.14, F = 16.6, df = 1, 95, p < 0.005). Variance partitioning analyses using multiple regression models indicated a unique response of the IBI to human-induced stress separate from a response to natural lake characteristics. The IBI was minimally affected by differences in sample point density as indicated by Monte Carlo analyses of reduced sampling effort. Our analysis indicates that a macrophyte IBI calibrated for Minnesota lakes could be useful for identifying differences in environmental condition attributed to human-induced stress gradients.     

Shape complexity of space used by American black bears influenced by sex and intensity of use

Disentangling the complexities that influence animal space use poses substantial challenges based on decision trade-offs and constraints imposed on animals. Optimal decisions suggest that the spatial complexity of home-range shapes should be inversely related to energy conservation and fitness. Hence, the most beneficial shape should be the circle. We evaluated whether shape complexity (i.e., an index of circularity) of home ranges was influenced by two extrinsic (spatial heterogeneity, preferred habitat [i.e., deciduous forest]), and three intrinsic (sex, season [breeding, non-breeding], intensity of use) factors, with intensity of use indexed as contours containing core and peripheral areas. We estimated utilization distributions of 39 radiomarked adult American black bears (Ursus americanus), a habitat generalist, using fixed-kernel techniques and estimated 50% (core area) and 95% (peripheral area) contours. We fit a set of 47 models using linear modeling and ranked models using small-sample Akaike Information Criterion. Coefficients for the best model were the intrinsic factors intensity of use (reference category = core; 0.118; 95% CL = 0.064–0.173), sex (reference = female; 0.105; 95% CL = 0.043–0.167), and intercept (0.229; 95% CL = 0.186–0.272). Shape complexity was less for core areas than peripheral areas and less for females than males. Considering complex resource selection patterns within a fragmented landscape, both sexes appeared to use energy-maximizing strategies, although the increase in shape complexity for males may be an allometric relationship based on size dimorphism. Our approach supported the phenomenon of optimality as manifested through home-range shape complexity, but we suggest that assessment of this phenomenon for habitat specialists may yield different results, including the potential importance of intrinsic factors based on more restrictive limiting factors.     

Temperature thresholds for germination and survival of Pittosporum undulatum: implications for management by fire

One consequence of human-induced changes in fire regimes has been the invasion of fire-prone Mediterranean ecosystems by weeds from more mesic habitats. In southern Australia, the tree Pittosporum undulatum Vent. has established in new areas, causing a serious reduction in floristic and structural diversity. Pittosporum undulatum has a high competitive ability and creates an environment that favours its own progeny at the expense of other species, making control difficult. We tested the hypothesis that fire effectively disrupts this invasion cycle by (1) eliminating the soil and canopy seed bank, (2) reducing the competitive ability of adults, and (3) minimising the number of sites favourable to invasion. To test this, the ability of P. undulatum to re-establish after a prescribed burn was estimated in a field study. The field data were then compared with the experimentally determined sensitivity of seeds and seedlings to elevated temperatures. The experimentally determined combination of temperatures and exposure time required for seed mortality (90–120 °C, depending on duration) was such that most seed stored in the canopy would be killed by prescribed burning. In addition, 90% of seedlings (ca. 0.4 m tall) were killed when heated to 180 °C for 5–10 min in the laboratory, consistent with the observed 100% seedling mortality in the burnt plots. Of the adult trees, 20% resprouted within 6 months of the fire. We conclude that the temperatures associated with wildfires are sufficient to act as a circuit breaker on the invasion cycle allowing other control measures, such as poisoning and weeding to be employed to greater effect.     

Synthesis and SAR studies of benzimidazolone derivatives as histamine H3-receptor antagonists

A novel series of benzimidazolone-containing histamine H₃-receptor antagonists were prepared and their structure–activity relationship was explored. These benzimidazolone analogs demonstrate potent H₃-receptor binding affinities, no P450 enzyme inhibition, and strong H₃ functional activity. Compound 1o exhibits the best overall profile with H₃K_i = 0.95 nM and rat AUC = 12.9 μM h.     

Sulforaphane improves dysregulated metabolic profile and inhibits leptin-induced VSMC proliferation: Implications toward suppression of neointima formation after arterial injury in western diet-fed obese mice

Sulforaphane (SFN), a dietary phase-2 enzyme inducer that mitigates cellular oxidative stress through nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) activation, is known to exhibit beneficial effects in the vessel wall. For instance, it inhibits vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) proliferation, a major event in atherosclerosis and restenosis after angioplasty. In particular, SFN attenuates the mitogenic and pro-inflammatory actions of platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα), respectively, in VSMCs. Nevertheless, the vasoprotective role of SFN has not been examined in the setting of obesity characterized by hyperleptinemia and insulin resistance. Using the mouse model of western diet-induced obesity, the present study demonstrates for the first time that subcutaneous delivery of SFN (0.5 mg/Kg/day) for ~ 3 weeks significantly attenuates neointima formation in the injured femoral artery [↓ (decrease) neointima/media ratio by ~ 60%; n = 5–8]. This was associated with significant improvements in metabolic parameters, including ↓ weight gain by ~ 52%, ↓ plasma leptin by ~ 42%, ↓ plasma insulin by ~ 63%, insulin resistance [↓ homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) index by ~ 73%], glucose tolerance (↓ AUC_GTT by ~ 24%), and plasma lipid profile (e.g., ↓ triglycerides). Under in vitro conditions, SFN significantly decreased leptin-induced VSMC proliferation by ~ 23% (n = 5) with associated diminutions in leptin-induced cyclin D1 expression and the phosphorylation of p70S6kinase and ribosomal S6 protein (n = 3–4). The present findings reveal that, in addition to improving systemic metabolic parameters, SFN inhibits leptin-induced VSMC proliferative signaling that may contribute in part to the suppression of injury-induced neointima formation in diet-induced obesity.     

Time-lapse videography of human oocytes following intracytoplasmic sperm injection: Events up to the first cleavage division

A total of 341 fertilized and 37 unfertilized oocytes from 63 intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatment cycles were included for retrospective assessment using the Embryoscope™ time-lapse video system. The second polar body (pb2) extrusion occurred at 2.9 ± 0.1 h (range 0.70–10.15 h) relative to sperm injection. All oocytes reduced in size following sperm injection (p < 0.05) with shrinkage ceasing after 2 h in the unfertilized and at pb2 extrusion in the fertilized oocytes. Pb2 extrusion was significantly delayed for women aged >38 years compared to those <35 years (3.4 ± 0.2 vs. 2.8 ± 0.1, p < 0.01) or 35–38 years (3.4 ± 0.2 vs. 2.8 ± 0.1, p < 0.01), but timing was not related to the Day 3 morphological grades (1–4) of subsequent embryos (2.9 ± 0.1, 2.9 ± 0.1, 2.8 ± 0.2 and 3.0 ± 0.1; p > 0.05 respectively). A shorter time of first cleavage division relative to either sperm injection or pb2 extrusion is associated with both top grade (AUC = 0.596 or 0.601, p = 0.006 or 0.004) and usable embryos (AUC = 0.638 or 0.632, p = 0.000 respectively) on Day 3. In summary, (i) pb2 of human oocytes extrudes at various times following sperm injection, (ii) the timing of pb2 extrusion is significantly delayed when female age >38 years, but not related to subsequent embryo development, (iii) all human oocytes reduce in size following sperm injection, (iv) completion of pb2 extrusion in the fertilized oocytes is a pivotal event in terminating shrinkage of the vitellus, and (v) time to first cleavage division either from sperm injection or pb2 extrusion is a significant predictive marker for embryo quality on Day 3.     

Performance of the Phytoplankton Index for Lakes (IPLAC): A multimetric phytoplankton index to assess the ecological status of water bodies in France

A new phytoplankton-based index was designed to respond to the Water Framework Directive (WFD) requirements concerning the assessment of lake ecological status. The “Indice Phytoplancton Lacustre” (IPLAC) is a multimetric index, taking into account biomass, abundance and species composition of communities. The first metric is based on the total phytoplankton biomass (MBA), the second on the abundance and taxonomic composition (MCS) of 165 indicator taxa. The IPLAC was developed on 2 independent databases, one for the calibration and the second for the validation of the metrics. The calibration dataset was composed of 255 “lake-years” from 214 distinct lakes sampled between 2005 and 2012. The validation dataset included 173 lake-years in order to confirm the response of the index to the trophic gradient and anthropogenic pressure.The results show that the IPLAC correctly highlights chemical pressure (eutrophication). Especially high Pearson correlations are shown with total phosphorus (r = −0.71, p-value <0.001), chlorophyll-a (r = −0.83, p-value <0.001) and water transparency (r = 0.73, p-value <0.001) which are the main proxies for the trophic level. Corine land cover was used as an indication of the anthropogenic pressure and good correlations are also found with the watershed land use, negatively correlated with agricultural area (r = −0.60, p-value <0.001), population density (r = −0.36, p-value <0.001) and positively with forest area (r = 0.57, p-value <0.001).The index is WFD-compliant and is dedicated to natural lakes and artificial water bodies in metropolitan France, and will be routinely used by the French Ministry of the Environment to assess lake ecological status through the phytoplankton community. However, the results must be carefully interpreted in two cases: reservoirs with large water level fluctuations, and samples that include less than 5 indicator species.     

Índice triglicéridos y glucosa: un indicador útil de insulinorresistencia

IntroductionInsulin resistance assessment requires sophisticated methodology of difficult application. Therefore, different estimators for this condition have been suggested. The aim of this study was to evaluate the triglycerides and glucose (TyG) index as a marker of insulin resistance and to compare it to the triglycerides/HDL cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL-C), in subjects with and without metabolic syndrome (MS).Material and methodsAn observational, cross-sectional study was conducted on 525 adults of a population from Bahia Blanca, Argentina, who were divided into two groups: with MS (n = 89) and without MS (n = 436). The discriminating capacities for MS of the TyG index, calculated as Ln (TG [mg/dL] x glucose [mg/dL]/2), and the TG/HDL-C ratio were evaluated. Pre-test probability for MS was 30%.ResultsThe mean value of the TyG index was higher in the group with MS as compared to the group without MS and its correlation with the TG/HDL-C ratio was good. The cut-off values for MS in the overall population were 8.8 for the TyG index (sensitivity = 79%, specificity = 86%), and 2.4 for the TG/HDL-C ratio (sensitivity = 88%, specificity = 72%). The positive likelihood ratios and post-test probabilities for these parameters were 5.8 vs 3.1 and 72% vs 58% respectively. The cut-off point for the TyG index was 8.8 in men and 8.7 in women; the respective values for TG/C-HDL were 3.1 in men and 2.2 in women.ConclusionsThe TyG index was a good discriminant of MS. Its simple calculation warrants its further study as an alternative marker of insulin resistance.     

Fire service instructor's undergarment choice to reduce Interleukin-6 and minimise physiological and perceptual strain

Fire Service Instructors frequently experience high levels of physiological and perceptual strain during live fire exposures. Instructors are also at risk of cardiovascular illnesses, with cardiac death being the greatest cause of fire fighter death. Current practice for UK instructors is to select undergarment type based on personal preference, between a boiler suit (BOILER) and a wicking base layer (WBL). Research suggests that shorts and t-shirt (SHORTS) may also be a beneficial alternative undergarment choice. The UK South East Fire Service requested an investigation to identify if undergarment selection can lessen the strain experienced by instructors, and reduce the acute inflammatory response to fire exposures. Eight males completed three 45 min sessions in a heat chamber (49.5±1.4 °C and 16.9±4.3% RH) whilst performing intermittent walking. At the end of heat exposure change in heart rate was not effected by garment type (p=0.061, ηp²=0.373). Change in rectal temperature was different between garments (p=0.009, η_p²=0.271), with trends suggesting that BOILER resulted in a greater change (1.03±0.60 °C) than SHORTS (0.76±0.37 °C, p=0.589, d=0.21) and WBL (0.72±0.33 °C, p=0.545, d=0.25). Interleukin-6 post exposure was greater for BOILER (6.96±0.28 pg mL⁻¹) than both SHORTS (6.59±0.30 pg mL⁻¹, p=0.043, d=0.42) and WBL (6.45±0.43 pg mL⁻¹, p=0.031, d=0.51). Overall, undergarment type had little impact on physiological or perceptual strain. However, wearing WBL or SHORTS may reduce the inflammatory response, and consequently decrease the risk of cardiovascular events.     

Hígado graso no alcohólico y su asociación con variables clínicas y bioquímicas en niños y adolescentes obesos: efecto de un año de intervención en el estilo de vida

ObjectiveTo study the frequency of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), its relationship to clinical and biochemical variables, and the effect 12-month's lifestyle intervention in obese children and adolescents.MethodsThirty-six obese patients aged 7 to 18 years, 42% female and 58% male, 72.2% prepubertal and 27.8% pubertal, were selected. Anthropometric measurements and glucose, insulin (baseline and after a glucose load), lipid profile, C-reactive protein, and aminotransferase tests were performed before and 12 months after dietary and physical activity intervention. Liver ultrasound was performed to determine the presence of NAFLD.ResultsNAFLD was found in 66.7% (n = 24), and was mild in 30.6%, moderate in 27.8%, and severe in 8.3%. Subjects with NAFLD had higher body mass index (BMI, p = 0.007), waist (p = 0.005), fat area (p = 0.002), basal insulin (p = 0.01), and HOMA-IR (p = 0.008) values and lower QUICKI (p = 0.02) values than those with no NAFLD. After intervention, physical activity increased (p = 0.0001) and calorie intake remained unchanged. NAFLD disappeared in 9 patients (37.5%, p = 0.02) and disease severity decreased in 3 patients (12.5%). In addition, BMI Z-score (p = 0.005), fat area (p = 0.0001), basal insulin (p < 0.05), insulin resistance (p < 0.005), lipid profile (p < 0.03), and transaminases decreased. Weight loss was the main variable accounting for NAFLD improvement.ConclusionThis group of obese children and adolescents showed a high frequency of NAFLD. The lifestyle intervention with weight reduction is effective for the treatment of NAFLD.     

Shade tree cover criteria for non-point source pollution control in the Rainforest Alliance coffee certification program: A snapshot assessment of Costa Rica's Tarrazú coffee region

Management of non-point source pollution is of great importance in the context of coffee agriculture, as this land use often coincides with headwater streams that influence water quality at the basin scale. Sustainability certification programs, such as the Rainforest Alliance (RA), provide management guidelines that promote non-point source pollution control in coffee. One of these practices is the maintenance of shade trees within farms, required by RA at a minimum of 40% shade tree cover. Here we assess the effectiveness of this practice in Tarrazú, a high elevation coffee growing region in Costa Rica. We monitored indicators of non-point source pollution in streams with both high and low shade tree cover. Streams with High Shade Tree Cover (HSTC, N = 5 subwatersheds) had 35–55% cover, approximating or exceeding the RA recommendation of at least 40%; and streams with Low Shade Tree Cover (LSTC, N = 5 subwatersheds), had 18–31% cover. We monitored the ten study streams during the dry (April & December), transition (July), and peak (October) rainfall seasons of 2013, and compared responses using t-tests. We found support for the effectiveness of shade tree cover in controlling non-point source pollution: HSTC streams had significantly (p = 0.042) lower mean annual turbidity and significantly (p = 0.004) lower turbidity during the transition season. HSTC streams also had significantly (p = 0.05) lower conductivity values during the transition period, although this trend was weaker through the year. Subwatersheds with HSTC streams were characterized by a higher percentage of RA-certified coffee than LSTC streams. Our study provides evidence of the benefits of RA shade tree cover criteria for managing water quality within high elevation tropical agro-ecosystems, especially if implemented at the watershed scale. These results contribute to our understanding of the role of agroforestry certification on tropical ecosystem conservation, and are the first account of the effectiveness of a specific coffee certification guideline on non-point source pollution control.     

Forest biomass and volume estimation using airborne LiDAR in a cool-temperate forest of northern Hokkaido,Japan

Trees are recognized as a carbon reservoir, and precise and convenient methods for forest biomass estimation are required for adequate carbon management. Airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) is considered to be one of the solutions for large-scale forest biomass evaluation. To clarify the relationship between mean canopy height determined by airborne LiDAR and forest timber volume and biomass of cool-temperate forests in northern Hokkaido, Japan, we conducted LiDAR observations covering the total area of the Teshio Experimental Forest (225 km²) of Hokkaido University and compared the results with ground surveys and previous studies. Timber volume and aboveground tree carbon content of the studied forest stands ranged from 101.43 to 480.40 m³ ha^–1 and from 30.78 to 180.54 MgC ha^–1, respectively. The LiDAR mean canopy height explained the variation among stands well (volume: r² = 0.80, RMSE = 55.04 m³ ha^–1; aboveground tree carbon content: r² = 0.78, RMSE = 19.10 MgC ha^–1) when one simple linear regression equation was used for all types (hardwood, coniferous, and mixed) of forest stands. The determination of a regression equation for each forest type did not improve the prediction power for hardwood (volume: r² = 0.84, RMSE = 62.66 m³ ha^–1; aboveground tree carbon content: r² = 0.76, RMSE = 27.05 MgC ha^–1) or coniferous forests (volume: r² = 0.75, RMSE = 51.07 m³ ha^–1; aboveground tree carbon content: r² = 0.58, RMSE = 19.00 MgC ha^–1). Thus, the combined regression equation that includes three forest types appears to be adequate for practical application to large-scale forest biomass estimation.     

Satellite- versus temperature-derived green wave indices for predicting the timing of spring migration of avian herbivores

According to the green wave hypothesis, herbivores follow the flush of spring growth of forage plants during their spring migration to northern breeding grounds. In this study we compared two green wave indices for predicting the timing of the spring migration of avian herbivores: the satellite-derived green wave index (GWI), and an index of the rate of acceleration in temperature (GDDjerk). The GWI was calculated from MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) satellite imagery and GDDjerk from gridded temperature data using products from the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS). To predict the timing of arrival at stopover and breeding sites, we used four years (2008–2011) of tracking data from 12 GPS-tagged barnacle geese, a long-distance herbivorous migrant, wintering in the Netherlands, breeding in the Russian Arctic. The stopover and breeding sites for these birds were identified and the relations between date of arrival with the date of 50% GWI and date of peak GDDjerk at each site were analyzed using mixed effect linear regression. A cross-validation method was used to compare the predictive accuracy of the GWI and GDDjerk indices. Significant relationships were found between the arrival dates at the stopover and breeding sites for the dates of 50% GWI as well as the peak GDDjerk (p < 0.01). The goose arrival dates at both stopover and breeding sites were predicted more accurately using GWI (R²_cv = 0.68, RMSD_cv = 5.9 and  R²_cv= 0.71, RMSD_cv = 3.9 for stopover and breeding sites, respectively) than GDDjerk. The GDDjerk returned a lower accuracy for prediction of goose arrival dates at stopover ( R²_cv = 0.45, RMSD_cv = 7.79) and breeding sites (R²_cv = 0.55, RMSD_cv = 4.93). The positive correlation between the absolute residual values of the GDDjerk model and distance to the breeding sites showed that this index is highly sensitive to latitude. This study demonstrates that the satellite-derived green wave index (GWI) can accurately predict the timing of goose migration, irrespective of latitude and therefore is suggested as a reliable green wave index for predicting the timing of avian herbivores spring migration.     

Support vector machines to model presence/absence of Alburnus alburnus alborella (Teleostea,Cyprinidae) in North-Western Italy: Comparison with other machine learning techniques

Alburnus alburnus alborella is a fish species native to northern Italy. It has suffered a very sharp decrease in population over the last 20 years due to human impact. Therefore, it was selected for reintroduction projects. In this research project, support vector machines (SVM) were tested as possible tools for building reliable models of presence/absence of the species. A system of 198 sites located along the rivers of Piedmont in North-Western Italy was investigated. At each site, 19 physical-chemical and environmental variables were measured. We verified that performances did not improve after feature selection but, instead, they slightly decreased (from Correctly Classified Instances [CCI] = 84.34 and Cohen's k [k] = 0.69 to CCI = 82.81 and k = 0.66). However, feature selection is crucial in identifying the relevant features for the presence/absence of the species. We then compared SVMs performances with decision trees (DTs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) built using the same dataset. SVMs outperformed DTs (CCI = 81.39 and k = 0.63) but not ANNs (CCI = 83.03 and k = 0.66), showing that SVMs and ANNs are the best performing models, proving that their application in freshwater management is more promising than traditional and other machine-learning techniques.     

Subtype analysis of Blastocystis sp. isolates from human and canine hosts in an urban community in the Philippines

Blastocystis sp. is a common gut-dwelling protist of both humans and animals. A cross-sectional survey among humans and their dogs was conducted to determine the prevalence of Blastocystis infection and to characterize the subtype (ST) distribution in an urban community in the Philippines. Fecal specimens from 1,271 humans and 145 dogs were collected and inoculated in diphasic culture medium. Prevalence of Blastocystis by culture was 13.0% (95% CI = 11.2–15.0) and 14.5% (95% CI = 9.6–21.2) for humans and dogs, respectively. A total of 168 culture isolates were genotyped using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with seven pairs of ST-specific sequence-tagged-site (STS) primers. In humans, the ST present in this study were ST1 with 22.6% (95% CI = 17.2–29.0), ST2 with 3.1% (95% CI = 1.3–6.7), ST3 with 41.4% (95% CI = 34.9–48.6), ST4 with 14.8% (95% CI = 10.5–20.6), ST5 with 4.1% (95% CI = 2.0–8.0), and unknown ST with 13.9% (95% CI = 9.6–19.4). In dogs, the ST present in this study were ST1 with 4.3% (95% CI = 0.0–29.0), ST2 with 8.7% (95% CI = 1.3–28.0), ST3 with 17.4% (95% CI = 6.4–37.7), ST4 with 13.0% (95% CI = 3.7–33.0), ST5 with 13.0% (95% CI = 3.7–33.0), and unknown ST with 47.8% (95% CI = 29.2–67.0). This is the first study that reported Blastocystis ST4 in human and canine hosts in the Philippines.     

Effect of time on consistent and repeatable macrophyte index for wetland condition

The vegetation portion of the Florida Wetland Condition Index (FWCI), an index of biological integrity, provided consistent and repeatable measures of condition at eighteen wetlands sampled in two consecutive growing seasons. The sample wetlands reflected a gradient of adjacent land use from non-impacted reference areas to wetlands imbedded within silviculture, cattle pasture and residential areas. Wetlands were described as herbaceous depression (n = 6), forested depression (n = 5) and forested strand or floodplain wetlands (n = 7), and represented different states of succession. Even though the wetlands were unique from one another and occurred across a large geographic area in Florida, the FWCI results calculated for all the wetlands were representative of adjacent land use impacts and not sensitive to natural variation. During the duration of this study, changes in weather from drought to tropical storm conditions, as well as management activities such as fire and herbivory, impacted wetlands. These effects were apparent in the change of species composition between sampling periods; 23–56% of species were different when resampled. Even though composition changed, the proportion of indicators remained consistent. The resulting condition scores suggested a one-to-one relationship between sampling periods.