Seasonally pulsed resources and non-interactive plant–herbivore models

[First paragraph]A strong argument for consumer–resource models over single–species population models is that they are consistent with actual ecological processes, and that this mechanistic realism leads to greater predictive power. These benefits depend wholly on the accuracy with which a model captures the dynamics of the resource. We review the key food resources used by brushtail possums in New Zealand and find that their dynamics are poorly represented in “interactive” models of the dynamics of possums and their plant foods. More realistic models that we develop lead to direct density dependence of approximately è-logistic form (Barlow and Clout, 1983), where è depends on observable characteristics of the system.     

Functional responses of adaptive consumers and community stability with emphasis on the dynamics of plant-herbivore systems

A comparatively recent focus in consumer–resource theory has been the examination of whether adaptive foraging by consumers, manifested through the functional response, can stabilize consumer–resource dynamics. We offer a brief synthesis of progress on this body of theory and identify the conditions likely to lead to stability. We also fill a gap in our understanding by analysing the potential for adaptively foraging herbivores, which are constrained by time available to feed and digestive capacity, to stabilize dynamics in a single-herbivore/two-plant resource system. Because foraging parameters of the adaptive functional response scale allometrically with herbivore body size, we parameterized our model system using published foraging data for an insect, a small mammal and a large mammal spanning four orders of magnitude in body size, and examined numerically the potential for herbivores to stabilize the consumer–resource interactions. We found in general that the herbivore–plant equilibrium will be unstable for all biologically realistic herbivore population densities. The instability arose for two reasons. First, each herbivore exhibited destabilizing adaptive consumer functional responses (i.e. density-independent or inversely density-dependent) whenever they selected a mixed diet. Secondly, the numerical response of herbivores, based on our assumption of density-independent herbivore population growth, results in herbivores reaching densities that enable them to exploit their resource populations to extinction. Our results and those of studies we reviewed indicate that, in general, adaptive consumers are unlikely to stabilize the dynamics of consumer–resource systems solely through the functional response. The implications of this for future work on consumer–resource theory are discussed.     

Climate-Based Models for Pulsed Resources Improve Predictability of Consumer Population Dynamics: Outbreaks of House Mice in Forest Ecosystems

Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts) are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (ΔT) for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer–resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus) outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ΔT method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ΔT on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year’s advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer–resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events.     

Predicting availability to consumers of spatially and temporally variable resources

Ecological dynamics in many aquatic communities are strongly influenced by spatial and temporal variability of key limiting resources, and the extent to which consumers can locate and exploit concentrations of those resources. Intuitively, resource concentrations that are `close' and `long-lived' should typically be more available to consumers than `distant' and `ephemeral' resource concentrations. The speed and accuracy with which consumers can locate concentrations of their resources is in part determined by their movement characteristics and sensory constraints, which vary with taxon, life-history stage, physiological state, environmental conditions, and other factors. This has motivated detailed observation and modelling of individual-level foraging behaviors in a wide variety of taxa. However, our abilities to develop this intuitive concept of availability into empirically-based, quantitative predictions for consumer–resource interactions remain limited, largely due to the complexities of formulating and simulating spatially explicit models of consumer–resource interactions, and the difficulty of understanding how specific simulation results relate to broader ecological situations. This paper presents a non-dimensional index, the Frost number, that provides a simple prediction of availability to consumers of spatially and temporally varying resource concentrations. This index incorporates characteristics of both resource distributions and consumer movement behaviors. When Frost numbers characterizing consumer–resource interactions are much less than unity, resource concentrations are typically unavailable to consumers because travel time to reach them exceeds the longevity of the resource. Conversely, when Frost numbers are much greater than unity, resource longevity exceeds travel time so that resource concentrations are available. The Frost number may provide a preliminary identification of the length and time scales at which resources are available to consumers in complex ecological systems, even when detailed spatial observations and simulations are not available.     

Effects of partitioning allochthonous and autochthonous resources on food web stability

The flux of energetic and nutrient resources across habitat boundaries can exert major impacts on the dynamics of the recipient food web. Competition for these resources can be a key factor structuring many ecological communities. Competition theory suggests that competing species should exhibit some partitioning to minimize competitive interactions. Species should partition both in situ (autochthonous) resources and (allochthonous) resources that enter the food web from outside sources. Allochthonous resources are important sources of energy and nutrients in many low productivity systems and can significantly influence community structure. The focus of this paper is on: (i) the influence of resource partitioning on food web stability, but concurrently we examine the compound effects of; (ii) the trophic level(s) that has access to allochthonous resources; (iii) the amount of allochthonous resource input; and (iv) the strength of the consumer–resource interactions. We start with a three trophic level food chain model (resource–consumer–predator) and separate the higher two trophic levels into two trophospecies. In the model, allochthonous resources are either one type available to both consumers and predators or two distinct types, one for consumers and one for predators. The feeding preferences of the consumer and predator trophospecies were varied so that they could either be generalists or specialists on allochthonous and/or autochthonous resources. The degree of specialization influenced system persistence by altering the structure and, therefore, the indirect effects of the food web. With regard to the trophic level(s) that has access to allochthonous resources, we found that a single allochthonous resource available to both consumers and predators is more unstable than two allochthonous resources. The results demonstrate that species populating food webs that experience low to moderate allochthonous resources are more persistent. The results also support the notion that strong links destabilize food web dynamics, but that weak to moderate strength links stabilize food web dynamics. These results are consistent with the idea that the particular structure, resource availability, and relative strength of links of food webs (such as degree of specialization) can influence the stability of communities. Given that allochthonous resources are important resources in many ecosystems, we argue that the influence of such resources on species and community persistence needs to be examined more thoroughly to provide a clearer understanding of food web dynamics.     

Adaptive plasticity in ontogenetic niche shifts stabilizes consumer-resource dynamics

Ontogenetic niche shifts, changes in the diet or habitats of organisms during their ontogeny, are widespread among various animal taxa. Ontogenetic niche shifts introduce stage structure in a population with different stages interacting with different communities and can substantially affect their dynamics. In this article, I use mathematical models to test the hypothesis that adaptive plasticity in the timing of ontogenetic niche shifts has a stabilizing effect on consumer-resource dynamics. Adaptive plasticity allows consumers in one ontogenetic niche to perform an early shift to the next ontogenetic niche if the resource density of the first niche is low. The early shift will reduce predation by the consumer on the scarce resource. On the other hand, adaptive plasticity allows consumers to delay their shift to the next niche if the resource density of the first niche is high. The delayed shift will increase the predation on the abundant resource. As a result, the scarce resource will tend to increase, and the abundant resource will tend to decrease. This causes density-dependent negative feedback in the resource dynamics, which stabilizes the consumer-resource dynamics. To test this hypothesis, I compare three consumer-resource models differing in terms of mechanisms controlling the timing of the ontogenetic niche shift: the fixed-age model assumes that the age at which the ontogenetic niche shift occurs is fixed; the fixed-size model assumes that the size at the shift is fixed; and the adaptive plasticity model assumes that the timing of the shift is such that the individual fitness of the consumer is maximized. I show that only the adaptive plasticity model has a locally stable equilibrium and that the stabilizing effect is due to the density-dependent negative feedback in the resource dynamics. I discuss the ontogenetic niche shifts of lake fish in light of the obtained result.     

Successional dynamics in the seasonally forced diamond food web

Plankton seasonal succession is a classic example of nonequilibrium community dynamics. Despite the fact that it has been well studied empirically, it lacks a general quantitative theory. Here we investigate a food web model that includes a resource, two phytoplankton, and a shared grazer-the diamond food web-in a seasonal environment. The model produces a number of successional trajectories that have been widely discussed in the context of the verbal Plankton Ecology Group model of succession, such as a spring bloom of a good competitor followed by a grazer-induced clear-water phase, setting the stage for the late-season dominance of a grazer-resistant species. It also predicts a novel, counterintuitive trajectory where the grazer-resistant species has both early- and late-season blooms. The model often generates regular annual cycles but sometimes produces multiyear cycles or chaos, even with identical forcing each year. Parameterizing the model, we show how the successional trajectory depends on nutrient supply and the length of the growing season, two key parameters that vary among water bodies. This model extends nonequilibrium theory to food webs and is a first step toward a quantitative theory of plankton seasonal succession.     

Universal temperature and body-mass scaling of feeding rates

Knowledge of feeding rates is the basis to understand interaction strength and subsequently the stability of ecosystems and biodiversity. Feeding rates, as all biological rates, depend on consumer and resource body masses and environmental temperature. Despite five decades of research on functional responses as quantitative models of feeding rates, a unifying framework of how they scale with body masses and temperature is still lacking. This is perplexing, considering that the strength of functional responses (i.e. interaction strengths) is crucially important for the stability of simple consumer–resource systems and the persistence, sustainability and biodiversity of complex communities. Here, we present the largest currently available database on functional response parameters and their scaling with body mass and temperature. Moreover, these data are integrated across ecosystems and metabolic types of species. Surprisingly, we found general temperature dependencies that differed from the Arrhenius terms predicted by metabolic models. Additionally, the body-mass-scaling relationships were more complex than expected and differed across ecosystems and metabolic types. At local scales (taxonomically narrow groups of consumer–resource pairs), we found hump-shaped deviations from the temperature and body-mass-scaling relationships. Despite the complexity of our results, these body-mass- and temperature-scaling models remain useful as a mechanistic basis for predicting the consequences of warming for interaction strengths, population dynamics and network stability across communities differing in their size structure.     

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.     

Temperature‐dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature‐ and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage‐structured consumer‐resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage‐specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage‐structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size–temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size–temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size‐specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities.     

Dynamic instabilities in microtubule cytoskeleton. A phase diagram

Instabilities in the growth and depolymerization of microtubules are considered in the framework of self-organization theory. An extended reaction-diffusion model for the microtubule dynamics has been formulated. A phase diagram of microtubule cytoskeleton has been constructed, which determines the regions of stability for steady and nonstationary solutions of the model. It is shown that the instabilities in microtubule dynamics result from kinetic nonequilibrium phase transitions. On the basis of phase diagram structure, a general classification of the microtubule cytostatic regulatory factors is suggested. The problem of mutual amplification of the activity of cytostatic agents is discussed.     

Stabilization of population fluctuations due to cannibalism promotes resource polymorphism in fish

Resource polymorphism is a well-known phenomenon in many taxa, assumed to be a consequence of strong competition for resources and to be facilitated by stable environments and the presence of several profitable resources on which to specialize. In fish, resource polymorphism, in the form of planktivore-benthivore pairs, is found in a number of species. We gathered literature data on life-history characteristics and population dynamics for 15 fish species and investigated factors related to the presence of such resource polymorphism. This investigation indicated that early cannibalism and low overall population variability are typically associated with the presence of resource polymorphism. These findings match previously reported patterns of population dynamics for size-structured fish populations, whereby early cannibalism has been shown to decrease temporal variation in population dynamics and to equalize the profitability of the zooplankton and macroinvertebrate resources. Our study suggests that competition alone is not a sufficient condition for the development of resource polymorphism because overly strong competition is typically associated with increased temporal variation (environmental instability). We conclude that although resource competition is an important factor regulating the development of resource polymorphism, cannibalism may also play a fundamental role by dampening population oscillations and possibly by equalizing the profitability of different resources.     

Breeding migration and population stability

We have modeled habitat shift for reproduction to examine the relationship between the timing of migration and population stability, by modifying Takimoto’s (Am Nat 162:93–109, 2003) consumer–resource model with a consumer’s ontogenetic niche shift. We found that equilibrium was always locally unstable if migration occurs at a fixed time or level of energy storage, whereas it could be stable if the timing of migration was adaptively flexible to maximize reproductive output. The general conditions for stability were safer breeding rather than feeding habitat and abundant resources at the feeding habitat. These results imply that both adopting an adaptive plastic strategy in the timing of migration and choosing to migrate from a rich feeding habitat to a safe breeding habitat can contribute to population stability. We also found that reduced reproductive success with delays in migration, and the survival rate after reproduction, had complicated effects on stability, depending on resource availability at the feeding habitat. The equilibrium was more likely to be stable when reproduction success was only slightly (or greatly) reduced or survival rate was high (or low) if the feeding habitat was rich (or poor). These are significant predictions for ecological study of migrating animals.     

Network structure, predator–prey modules, and stability in large food webs

Large, complex networks of ecological interactions with random structure tend invariably to instability. This mathematical relationship between complexity and local stability ignited a debate that has populated ecological literature for more than three decades. Here we show that, when species interact as predators and prey, systems as complex as the ones observed in nature can still be stable. Moreover, stability is highly robust to perturbations of interaction strength, and is largely a property of structure driven by predator–prey loops with the stability of these small modules cascading into that of the whole network. These results apply to empirical food webs and models that mimic the structure of natural systems as well. These findings are also robust to the inclusion of other types of ecological links, such as mutualism and interference competition, as long as consumer–resource interactions predominate. These considerations underscore the influence of food web structure on ecological dynamics and challenge the current view of interaction strength and long cycles as main drivers of stability in natural communities. Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Stage-structured ontogeny in resource populations generates non-additive stabilizing and de-stabilizing forces in populations and communities

Demographic heterogeneity influences how populations respond to density dependent intraspecific competition and trophic interactions. Distinct stages across an organism's development, or ontogeny, are an important example of demographic heterogeneity. In consumer populations, ontogenetic stage structure has been shown to produce categorical differences in population dynamics, community dynamics and even species coexistence compared to models lacking explicit ontogeny. The study of consumer–resource interactions must also consider the ontogenetic stage structure of the resource itself, particularly plants, given their fundamental role at the basis of terrestrial food webs. We incorporate distinct ontogenetic stages of plants into an adaptable multi-stage consumer–resource modeling framework that facilitates studying how stage specific consumers shape trophic dynamics at low trophic levels. We describe the role of density dependent demographic rates in mediating the dynamics of stage-structured plant populations. We then investigate how these demographic rates interact with consumer pressure to influence stability and coexistence in multiple stage-specific consumer–resource interactions. Results detail how density dependent effects across distinct ontogenetic stages in plant development produce non-additivity in the drivers of dynamic stability both in single populations and in consumer–resource settings, challenging the ubiquity of certain traditional ecological dynamic paradigms. We also find categorical differences in the population variability induced by herbivores consuming separate plant stages. Consumer–resource models, such as plant–herbivore interactions, often average out demographic heterogeneity in populations. Here, we show that explicitly including plant demographic heterogeneity through ontogeny yields distinct dynamic expectations for both plants and herbivores compared to traditional consumer–resource formulations. Our results indicate that efforts to understand the demographic effect of herbivores on plant populations may need to also consider the effects of plant demographics on herbivores and the reciprocal relationship between them.     

Moorea BIOCODE barcode library as a tool for understanding predator–prey interactions: insights into the diet of common predatory coral reef fishes

Identifying species involved in consumer–resource interactions is one of the main limitations in the construction of food webs. DNA barcoding of prey items in predator guts provides a valuable tool for characterizing trophic interactions, but the method relies on the availability of reference sequences to which prey sequences can be matched. In this study, we demonstrate that the COI sequence library of the Moorea BIOCODE project, an ecosystem-level barcode initiative, enables the identification of a large proportion of semi-digested fish, crustacean and mollusks found in the guts of three Hawkfish and two Squirrelfish species. While most prey remains lacked diagnostic morphological characters, 94% of the prey found in 67 fishes had >98% sequence similarity with BIOCODE reference sequences. Using this species-level prey identification, we demonstrate how DNA barcoding can provide insights into resource partitioning, predator feeding behaviors and the consequences of predation on ecosystem function.     

Host plant quality,spatial heterogeneity,and the stability of mite predator–prey dynamics

Population dynamics models suggest that both the over-all level of resource productivity and spatial variability in productivity can play important roles in community dynamics. Higher productivity environments are predicted to destabilize consumer–resource dynamics. Conversely, greater heterogeneity in resource productivity is expected to contribute to stability. Yet the importance of these two factors for the dynamics of arthropod communities has been largely overlooked. I manipulated nutrient availability for strawberry plants in a multi-patch experiment, and measured effects of overall plant quality and heterogeneity in plant quality on the stability of interactions between the phytophagous mite Tetranychus urticae and its predator Phytoseiulus persimilis. Plant size, leaf N content and T. urticae population growth increased monotonically with increasing soil nitrogen availability. This gradient in plant quality affected two correlates of mite population stability, population variability over time (i.e., coefficient of variation) and population persistence (i.e., proportion of plant patches colonized). However, the highest level of plant quality did not produce the least stable dynamics, which is inconsistent with the “paradox of enrichment”. Heterogeneity in plant productivity had modest effects on stability, with the only significant difference being less variable T. urticae densities in the heterogeneous compared to the corresponding homogeneous treatment. These results are generally congruent with metapopulation theory and other models for spatially segregated populations, which predict that stability should be governed largely by relative movement rates of predators and prey—rather than patch quality.     

A stage structured predator-prey model and its dependence on maturation delay and death rate

Many of the existing models on stage structured populations are single species models or models which assume a constant resource supply. In reality, growth is a combined result of birth and death processes, both of which are closely linked to the resource supply which is dynamic in nature. From this basic standpoint, we formulate a general and robust predator-prey model with stage structure with constant maturation time delay (through-stage time delay) and perform a systematic mathematical and computational study. Our work indicates that if the juvenile death rate (through-stage death rate) is nonzero, then for small and large values of maturation time delays, the population dynamics takes the simple form of a globally attractive steady state. Our linear stability work shows that if the resource is dynamic, as in nature, there is a window in maturation time delay parameter that generates sustainable oscillatory dynamics.Work is partially supported by NSF grant DMS-0077790.Mathamatics Subject Classification (2000):92D25, 35R10Revised version: 26 February 2004     

Alternative dynamical states in stage-structured consumer populations

The population dynamics of a consumer population with an internal structure is investigated. The population is divided into juvenile and adult individuals that consume different resources and do not interfere with each other. Over a broad range of external conditions (varying mortality and different resource levels), alternative stable states exist. These population states correspond to domination of juveniles and domination of adults, respectively. When mortality is varied, hysteresis between the alternative states only occurs if juveniles have more resources than adults. In the opposite case the juvenile-dominated state is stable for all values of mortality, but the adult-dominated state is not. When the population is modelled with more than one juvenile stage, the adult-dominated state becomes a periodic orbit due to a delay in the regulatory mechanism of the population dynamics. It is shown numerically that the stage-structured model converges to a model with continuous size structure for very large numbers of successive juvenile stages.     

Spatio-Temporal Environmental Correlation and Population Variability in Simple Metacommunities

Natural populations experience environmental conditions that vary across space and over time. This variation is often correlated between localities depending on the geographical separation between them, and different species can respond to local environmental fluctuations similarly or differently, depending on their adaptation. How this emerging structure in environmental correlation (between-patches and between-species) affects spatial community dynamics is an open question. This paper aims at a general understanding of the interactions between the environmental correlation structure and population dynamics in spatial networks of local communities (metacommunities), by studying simple two-patch, two-species systems. Three different pairs of interspecific interactions are considered: competition, consumer–resource interaction, and host–parasitoid interaction. While the results paint a relatively complex picture of the effect of environmental correlation, the interaction between environmental forcing, dispersal, and local interactions can be understood via two mechanisms. While increasing between-patch environmental correlation couples immigration and local densities (destabilising effect), the coupling between local populations under increased between-species environmental correlation can either amplify or dampen population fluctuations, depending on the patterns in density dependence. This work provides a unifying framework for modelling stochastic metacommunities, and forms a foundation for a better understanding of population responses to environmental fluctuations in natural systems.