The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Ross River virus incidence in Queensland,Australia

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most important vector-borne disease in Australia. The National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System has confirmed that its incidence is often greatest in the state of Queensland, where there is a clear seasonal pattern as well as interannual variability. Previous studies have examined relationships between large-scale climate fluctuations (such as El Ni?o Southern Oscillation) and vector-borne disease. No previous study has examined such relationships with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), another large-scale climate fluctuation. We employ time-series analysis techniques to investigate cycles inherent in monthly RRV incidence in Queensland, Australia, from January 1991 to December 1997 inclusive. The presence of a quasi-biennial cycle in the RRV time series that is out of phase with the climatic QBO is described. Quantitative analyses using correlograms and periodograms demonstrate that the quasi-biennial cycle in the RRV time series is statistically significant, at the 95% level, above the noise. Together with the seasonal cycle, the quasi-biennial cycle accounts for 77% of the variance in Queensland RRV cases. Regression analysis of QBO and summer rainfall in three climatic zones of Queensland indicates a significant association between QBO and rainfall in the subtropical southeastern part of the state. These results suggest an indirect influence of the QBO on RRV incidence in Queensland, via its influence on climate in this region. Our findings indicate that the QBO may be a useful predictor of RRV at several months lead, and might be used by public health authorities in the management and prevention of this disease.     

Antibodies to the Ross River virus in captive marsupials in urban areas of eastern New South Wales, Australia

Serum samples collected from 224 tammar wallabies (Macropus eugenii) in two captive populations in urban areas in eastern New South Wales Australia, between December 1999 and May 2004, were tested for antibodies to Ross River virus (RRV). In one population in northwest Sydney, 21 animals (11%) tested positive, and in another population in Newcastle, New South Wales, thirteen (33%) of the animals were positive. Antibodies were detected in four of 11 wallaroos (Macropus robustus) (36%) but not in parma wallabies (Macropus parma) (n=5), koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) (n=12) and southern hairy-nosed wombats (Lasiorhinus latifrons) (n=2) from the Sydney area. These data support the possible role of marsupials as urban amplifying hosts for RRV.     

Optimising predictive modelling of Ross River virus using meteorological variables

BackgroundStatistical models are regularly used in the forecasting and surveillance of infectious diseases to guide public health. Variable selection assists in determining factors associated with disease transmission, however, often overlooked in this process is the evaluation and suitability of the statistical model used in forecasting disease transmission and outbreaks. Here we aim to evaluate several modelling methods to optimise predictive modelling of Ross River virus (RRV) disease notifications and outbreaks in epidemiological important regions of Victoria and Western Australia.Methodology/Principal findingsWe developed several statistical methods using meteorological and RRV surveillance data from July 2000 until June 2018 in Victoria and from July 1991 until June 2018 in Western Australia. Models were developed for 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Victoria and seven LGAs in Western Australia. We found generalised additive models and generalised boosted regression models, and generalised additive models and negative binomial models to be the best fit models when predicting RRV outbreaks and notifications, respectively. No association was found with a model’s ability to predict RRV notifications in LGAs with greater RRV activity, or for outbreak predictions to have a higher accuracy in LGAs with greater RRV notifications. Moreover, we assessed the use of factor analysis to generate independent variables used in predictive modelling. In the majority of LGAs, this method did not result in better model predictive performance.Conclusions/SignificanceWe demonstrate that models which are developed and used for predicting disease notifications may not be suitable for predicting disease outbreaks, or vice versa. Furthermore, poor predictive performance in modelling disease transmissions may be the result of inappropriate model selection methods. Our findings provide approaches and methods to facilitate the selection of the best fit statistical model for predicting mosquito-borne disease notifications and outbreaks used for disease surveillance.     

Characterization of Ross River virus tropism and virus-induced inflammation in a mouse model of viral arthritis and myositis

Mosquito-borne alphaviruses are a significant cause of both encephalitic and arthritic disease in humans worldwide. In contrast to the encephalitic alphaviruses, the pathogenesis of alphavirus-induced arthritic disease is not well understood. Utilizing a mouse model of Ross River virus (RRV) disease, we found that the primary targets of RRV infection are bone, joint, and skeletal muscle tissues of the hind limbs in both outbred CD-1 mice and adult C57BL/6J mice. Moreover, histological analyses demonstrated that RRV infection resulted in severe inflammation of these tissues. Characterization of the inflammatory infiltrate within the skeletal muscle tissue identified inflammatory macrophages, NK cells, and CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes. To determine the contribution of the adaptive immune system, the outcome of RRV-induced disease was examined in C57BL/6J RAG-1(-/-) mice, which lack functional T and B lymphocytes. RAG-1(-/-) and wild-type mice developed similar disease signs, infiltration of inflammatory macrophages and NK cells, and muscle pathology, suggesting that the adaptive immune response does not play a critical role in the development of disease. These results establish the mouse model of RRV disease as a useful system for the identification of viral and host factors that contribute to alphavirus-induced arthritis and myositis.     

Ross River virus glycoprotein-pseudotyped retroviruses and stable cell lines for their production

Pseudotyped retroviruses have important applications as vectors for gene transfer and gene therapy and as tools for the study of viral glycoprotein function. Recombinant Moloney murine leukemia virus (Mo-MuLV)-based retrovirus particles efficiently incorporate the glycoproteins of the alphavirus Ross River virus (RRV) and utilize them for entry into cells. Stable cell lines that produce the RRV glycoprotein-pseudotyped retroviruses for prolonged periods of time have been constructed. The pseudotyped viruses have a broadened host range, can be concentrated to high titer, and mediate stable transduction of genes into cells. The RRV glycoprotein-pseudotyped retroviruses and the cells that produce them have been employed to demonstrate that RRV glycoprotein-mediated viral entry occurs through endocytosis and that membrane fusion requires acidic pH. Alphavirus glycoprotein-pseudotyped retroviruses have significant advantages as reagents for the study of the biochemistry and prevention of alphavirus entry and as preferred vectors for stable gene transfer and gene therapy protocols.     

Ross River virus disease clinical presentation,pathogenesis and current therapeutic strategies

Ross River virus (RRV) is an arthitogenic alphavirus capable of causing outbreaks of debilitating musculoskeletal inflammatory disease in humans. RRV is the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, with outbreaks of RRV generally occurring during seasonal wet and warm conditions. Patients with Ross River virus disease (RRVD) typically present with fever, polyarthralgia, myalgia and a maculopapular erythematous rash. Treatment of the disease is usually palliative with no licensed vaccines or antiviral therapies currently available. In an effort to better inform therapeutic design, much progress has been made to understand the pathogenesis of RRVD. Progress has been largely driven by clinical evaluations supported by research using established murine models of RRVD, able to accurately replicate human disease. In this review we describe RRVD pathogenesis and the role of the host immune response, with particular focus on insights from studying animal models. We also discuss prospects for effective vaccines, preclinical development of therapeutic strategies and raise important questions for future RRV research.     

Human Borna disease virus infection in Australia: serological markers of infection in multi-transfused patients

Borna disease virus (BDV) causes neurological disease in horses, however, there is no consensus as to the extent or significance of human infection. BDV antigen levels in plasma (BDVpAg) and anti-BDV were measured by ELISAs. Confirmation was by Western blot (WB), immunofluorescence assay (IFA) or BDV-peptide-epitope ELISA. For 42 volunteers psychiatrically-defined as non-depressed (82 samples) neither BDVpAg nor anti-BDV was detected. For 104 patients with diagnosed depression (290 samples) 1 was BDVpAg positive and 5 anti-BDV positive, one epitope-e8 positive and 4 IFA positive, with 96% concordance for repeat samples. No BDVpAg was detected in 214 pregnant women, 2 were anti-BDV positive, one WB-confirmed (p24/p40). For 219 donors 2 were BDVpAg positive with anti-BDV detected in 5 (2.3%) one IFA 1:10, another IFA 1:40/epitope-e8 positive. In multitransfused patients, 3/168 were BDV pAg positive, with 14/168 anti-BDV positive, 1 epitope-e8 positive, 2 WB positive and 1 IFA 1:10. In BDVpAg positive multi-transfused patients there was an elevated risk of transaminitis. In one case, a patient BDV-negative prior to transfusion was BDVpAg positive for several months posttransfusion (associated with transaminitis). These data provide serological evidence, supported by confirmatory assays and repeat-sample concordance, of BDV infection in Australia, particularly in multi-transfused patients.     

Borna disease virus: evidence of naturally-occurring infection in cats in Australia

In Europe, Borna disease virus (BDV) infection has been linked with staggering disease. The aim of this study was serological investigation for BDV infection in Australian cats. De-identified sera were obtained from domestic cats presented at various veterinary clinics. BDV antigen levels were measured by a monoclonal antibody-based ELISA. Antibody to BDV measured semiquantitatively by ELISA was detected in 0.8% of cats from South Australia and 3.2% of animals from NSW Confirmatory assays for ELISA positive samples included Western blot and immunofluorescence assay (IFA) with BDV-specific staining. Seven BDV-antigen positive sera (2.4%) were identified in sera from cats from New South Wales (NSW). In blinded testing, amongst a large number of negative results, repeat submissions over a seven-month period from a cat co-infected with Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) were BDV-antigen positive. Anti-BDV antibody detected in this cat by ELISA was confirmed by Western blot (p24/ p40/p56) and IFA. For 4 other anti-BDV ELISA-positive samples, specific reactions with BDV proteins were observed by Western blot. Ten other anti-BDV ELISA-positive samples were IFA positive. These data provide consistent serological evidence that, while horses in Australia are free of BDV infection, there may be a low rate of BDV infection in cats.     

Persistence of multiple genetic lineages within intrahost populations of Ross River virus

We examined the structure and extent of genetic diversity in intrahost populations of Ross River virus (RRV) in samples from six human patients, focusing on the nonstructural (nsP3) and structural (E2) protein genes. Strikingly, although the samples were collected from contrasting ecological settings 3,000 kilometers apart in Australia, we observed multiple viral lineages in four of the six individuals, which is indicative of widespread mixed infections. In addition, a comparison with previously published RRV sequences revealed that these distinct lineages have been in circulation for at least 5 years, and we were able to document their long-term persistence over extensive geographical distances.     

Soil carbon and litter development along a reconstructed biodiverse forest chronosequence of South-Western Australia

We performed a meta-data analysis to investigate the importance of event based fluxes to DOC export from forested watersheds. A total of 30 small eastern United States forested watersheds with no wetland component, with a total of 5,176 DOC and accompanying discharge measurements were used in this analysis. There is a clear increase in DOC concentration during hydrologic events (storms and snow melt) that follows a power relationship. We estimate that 86% of DOC is exported during events. The majority (70%) of this event based DOC flux occurs during the rising hydrograph and during large events. Events with a discharge greater than 1.38 cm day^?1 make up only 4.8% of the annual hydrograph, yet are responsible for 57% of annual DOC flux. The relationship between event discharge and both DOC concentration and flux is also regulated by temperature and antecedent conditions, with a larger response in both fluxes and concentrations to events during warmer periods and periods where the preceding discharge was low. The temperature relationship also shows seasonality indicating a potential link to the size or reactivity of watershed OM pools. The 86% of DOC lost during events represents a conservative estimate of the amount of allochthonous forested DOC transported laterally to streams. Future research on watershed cycling of DOC should take into account the importance of events in regulating the transport of DOC to downstream ecosystems, determine the relative importance of abiotic versus biotic processes for the temperature regulation of event-associated DOC fluxes, and elucidate the interactions between processes that respond to climate on event versus longer time scales.     

Entry kinetics and mouse virulence of Ross River virus mutants altered in neutralization epitopes.

Previously we identified the locations of three neutralization epitopes (a, b1 and b2) of Ross River virus (RRV) by sequencing a number of variants resistant to monoclonal antibody neutralization which were found to have single amino acid substitutions in the E2 protein (S. Vrati, C.A. Fernon, L. Dalgarno, and R.C. Weir, Virology 162:346-353, 1988). We have now studied the biological properties of these variants in BHK cells and their virulence in mice. While variants altered in epitopes a and/or b1 showed no difference, variants altered in epitope b2, including a triple variant altered in epitopes a, b1, and b2, showed rapid penetration but retarded kinetics of growth and RNA and protein synthesis in BHK cells compared with RRV T48, the parent virus. Variants altered in epitopes a and/or b1 showed no change in mouse virulence. However, two of the six epitope b2 variants examined had attenuated mouse virulence. They had a four- to fivefold-higher 50% lethal dose (LD50), although no change in the average survival time of infected mice was observed. These variants grew to titers in mouse tissues similar to those of RRV T48. The ID50 of the triple variant was unchanged, but infected mice had an increased average survival time. This variant produced lower levels of viremia in infected mice. On the basis of these findings we propose that both the receptor binding site and neutralization epitopes of RRV are nearby or in the same domain of the E2 protein.     

Does Helicobacter pylori eradication affect symptoms in nonulcer dyspepsia: a 5-year follow-up study

The role of Helicobacter pylori infection in nonulcer dyspepsia remains controversial. To date studies exploring the effect of H. pylori eradication on symptoms have reported conflicting results. Randomised control trials employing validated outcome measures have also been difficult to interpret because of several important issues such as the large placebo response seen in patients with nonulcer dyspepsia and both the natural variability in symptoms and symptom severity with time. The association of symptom improvement with resolution of gastritis has meant that the length of follow up employed in most studies has been insufficient. We report the findings of a randomised placebo controlled trial (n = 100), using a validated symptom questionnaire and 5 year follow up to determine the effect of H. pylori eradication on symptoms in nonulcer dyspepsia. In all 64 that were reviewed at 5 years there was a significant difference between patients who were H. pylori negative and those who remained positive with regard to complete symptom resolution, consumption of relevant medications and peptic ulcer disease development, in favour of active treatment. There was a trend for gradual symptom improvement over time irrespective of H. pylori status, which may reflect the natural history of this condition. For those who remained symptomatic at 5 years, there was no difference in symptom severity based on H. pylori status. The findings of this study support the use of H. pylori eradication in symptomatic patients with nonulcer dyspepsia both to induce symptom resolution and to prevent disease progression.     

The Techa River Cohort: study design and follow-up methods

Residents living on the banks of the Techa River in the Southern Urals region of Russia were exposed to radioactive contamination from the Mayak plutonium production and separation facility that discharged liquid radioactive waste into this river. This paper describes the methods used to establish and follow the Extended Techa River Cohort (ETRC), which includes almost 30,000 people living along the Techa River who were exposed to a complex mixture of radionuclides, largely 90Sr and 137Cs. The system of regular follow-up allows ascertainment of vital status, cause of death and cancer incidence. With over 50 years of follow-up and over 50% deceased, the ETRC now provides a valuable opportunity to study a wide range of health effects, both early and late, associated with protracted internal and external radiation exposures. The wide range of doses allows analysis of the nature of the dose-response relationship based on internal comparisons. Other features of the cohort are the high proportion (40%) exposed under age 20, and the inclusion of both sexes. The limitations of the study include loss to follow-up due to difficulties in tracing some cohort members and migration and incomplete ascertainment of cause of death.     

Genetic heterogeneity among isolates of Ross River virus from different geographical regions.

The RNase T1 maps of 80 isolates of Ross River virus from different regions of mainland Australia and the Pacific Islands were compared. Four different clusters of isolates with greater than an estimated 5 to 6% diversity at the nucleotide level were found. There was a pattern of differences between eastern and western Australian strains; however, the pattern was disturbed by overlaps and incursants. Pacific Islands isolates belonged to the eastern Australian topotype. Our findings suggest that certain genetic types of Ross River virus predominate in different geographical regions. In contrast, populations of other important Australian arboviruses (Murray Valley encephalitis, Kunjin, and Sindbis viruses) are distributed across the Australian continent as minor variants of one strain. Our data also show that in one region, strains of Ross River virus with identical RNase T1 maps circulate during both years when epidemics occur and years when they do not. This finding suggests that Ross River virus epidemics are not dependent on the introduction or evolution of new strains of the virus. Two strains, belonging to the eastern Australian topotype, were isolated in Western Australia. It is likely that viremic humans or possibly domestic livestock travelling by aircraft were responsible for this movement.     

Adaptive mutations in Sindbis virus E2 and Ross River virus E1 that allow efficient budding of chimeric viruses

Alphavirus glycoproteins E2 and E1 form a heterodimer that is required for virus assembly. We have studied adaptive mutations in E2 of Sindbis virus (SIN) and E1 of Ross River virus (RR) that allow these two glycoproteins to interact more efficiently in a chimeric virus that has SIN E2 but RR E1. These mutations include K129E, K131E, and V237F in SIN E2 and S310F and C433R in RR E1. Although RR E1 and SIN E2 will form a chimeric heterodimer, the chimeric virus is almost nonviable, producing about 10(-7) as much virus as SIN at 24 h and 10(-5) as much after 48 h. Chimeras containing one adaptive change produced 3 to 20 times more virus than did the parental chimera, whereas chimeras with two changes produced 10 to 100 times more virus and chimeras containing three mutations produced yields that were 180 to 250 times better. None of the mutations had significant effects upon the parental wild-type viruses, however. Passage of the triple variants eight or nine times resulted in variants that produced virus rapidly and were capable of producing >10(8) PFU/ml of culture fluid within 24 h. These further-adapted variants possessed one or two additional mutations, including E2-V116K, E2-S110N, or E1-T65S. The RR E1-C433R mutation was studied in more detail. This Cys is located in the putative transmembrane domain of E1 and was shown to be palmitoylated. Mutation to Arg-433 resulted in loss of palmitoylation of E1. The positively charged arginine residue within the putative transmembrane domain of E1 would be expected to alter the conformation of this domain. These results suggest that interactions within the transmembrane region are important for the assembly of the E1/E2 heterodimer, as are regions of the ectodomains possibly identified by the locations of adaptive mutations in these regions. Further, the finding that four or five changes in the chimera allow virus production that approaches the levels seen with the parental SIN and exceeds that of the parental RR illustrates that the structure and function of SIN and RR E1s have been conserved during the 50% divergence in sequence that has occurred.     

Antiviral immunity following smallpox virus infection: a case-control study

Outbreaks of smallpox (i.e., caused by variola virus) resulted in up to 30% mortality, but those who survived smallpox infection were regarded as immune for life. Early studies described the levels of neutralizing antibodies induced after infection, but smallpox was eradicated before contemporary methods for quantifying T-cell memory were developed. To better understand the levels and duration of immunity after smallpox infection, we performed a case-control study comparing antiviral CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell responses and neutralizing antibody levels of 24 smallpox survivors with the antiviral immunity observed in 60 smallpox-vaccinated (i.e., vaccinia virus-immune) control subjects. We found that the duration of immunity following smallpox infection was remarkably similar to that observed after smallpox vaccination, with antiviral T-cell responses that declined slowly over time and antiviral antibody responses that remained stable for decades after recovery from infection. These results indicate that severe, potentially life-threatening disease is not required for the development of sustainable long-term immunity. This study shows that the levels of immunity induced following smallpox vaccination are comparable in magnitude to that achieved through natural variola virus infection, and this may explain the notable success of vaccination in eradicating smallpox, one of the world's most lethal diseases.     

Seed-borne cucumber mosaic virus infection of subterranean clover in Western Australia

In Western Australia, infection with cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) was widespread in all three subspecies of subterranean clover (Trifolium subterraneum) growing in plots belonging to the Australian National Subterranean Clover Improvement Programme. Seed-borne CMV was detected in seed harvested in 1984–1986 of 18/25 cultivars from two collections of registered cultivars; seed transmission rates ranged up to 8.8%. Seed samples from CMV-inoculated plants of 11 cultivars transmitted the virus to 0.5–8.7% of seedlings. Seed transmission rates greater than 5% were obtained only with cvs Enfield, Green Range and Nangeela. CMV was not detected in seed harvested in 1975–1981 from one of the registered cultivar collections, in 17 commercial seed stocks from 1986 or in a survey of subterranean clover pastures.
Symptoms in subterranean clover naturally infected with CMV included mottle, leaflet downcurling and dwarfing but severity varied with cultivar and selection. CMV isolates from different sources varied in virulence when inoculated to subterranean clover; two (both from subterranean clover) were severe, two moderate and three (including one from subterranean clover) mild. In pot tests, CMV decreased herbage production and root growth (dry wts) of cv. Green Range by 49% and 59% respectively. In spaced-plants growing in plots, CMV decreased herbage production and root growth of cvs Green Range and Northam by 59–630 and seed production of cv. Green Range by 45%. In rows sown with infected seed, aphid spread increased infection levels to 75% in cv. Green Range and 44% in cv. Esperance and losses in herbage production of 42% and 29% respectively were recorded.
CMV isolated from subterranean clover included isolates from both serogroups.