Climate warming and changes in habitat suitability for Boophilus microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Central America.

Remote sensing on the basis of AVHRR (advanced very high resolution radiometer) satellite imagery was used, together with standard geostatistical methods (cokriging), to estimate the distribution of habitat suitability (HS) for the tick Boophilus microplus (Canestrini) in Central America. Most attention was paid to the expected limits of tick distribution as well as the temperature and vegetation values responsible for different HS zones and their variability within the year. The highest HS extended through wide areas of southeastern United States, much of Mexico, and other countries of Central America. Areas with higher HS had relatively stable temperatures (within 20-25 C) throughout the year, and had a NDVI (normalized derived vegetation index) of around 0.4. These areas need to be targeted to ensure acaricide usage at optimum intervals and to avoid the formation of areas with enzootic instability. A seasonal analysis of the climate trend through the study period (1982-1999) revealed a warming cycle, together with a rise in NDVI index values. The main consequence of this trend is the gradual increase in unsuitability in areas where the tick is already established, with the establishment of new foci in zones currently too cold to support tick populations. The cooling periods of 1-2 yr that were observed between warming cycles may also lead to enzootic instability when warm zones cool to within the suitability range. As the model is remotely sensed, a continuous update of the B. microplus distribution could be performed, assuring maximum efficiency in developing management strategies.     

Modeling the Impact of Climate and Landscape on the Efficacy of White Tailed Deer Vaccination for Cattle Tick Control in Northeastern Mexico

Cattle ticks are distributed worldwide and affect animal health and livestock production. White tailed deer (WTD) sustain and spread cattle tick populations. The aim of this study was to model the efficacy of anti-tick vaccination of WTD to control tick infestations in the absence of cattle vaccination in a territory where both host species coexist and sustain cattle tick populations. Agent-based models that included land cover/landscape properties (patch size, distances to patches) and climatic conditions were built in a GIS environment to simulate WTD vaccine effectiveness under conditions where unvaccinated cattle shared the landscape. Published and validated information on tick life cycle was used to build models describing tick mortality and developmental rates. Data from simulations were applied to a large territory in northeastern Mexico where cattle ticks are endemic and WTD and cattle share substantial portions of the habitat. WTD movements were simulated together with tick population dynamics considering the actual landscape and climatic features. The size of the vegetation patches and the distance between patches were critical for the successful control of tick infestations after WTD vaccination. The presence of well-connected, large vegetation patches proved essential for tick control, since the tick could persist in areas of highly fragmented habitat. The continued application of one yearly vaccination on days 1-70 for three years reduced tick abundance/animal/patch by a factor of 40 and 60 for R. annulatus and R. microplus, respectively when compared to non-vaccinated controls. The study showed that vaccination of WTD alone during three consecutive years could result in the reduction of cattle tick populations in northeastern Mexico. Furthermore, the results of the simulations suggested the possibility of using vaccines to prevent the spread and thus the re-introduction of cattle ticks into tick-free areas.     

A retrospective study of climatic suitability for the tick Rhipicephalus (Boophilus)microplus in the Americas

Aim Climate change has the potential to have an impact on the distribution of ticks and tick‐borne diseases. This paper identifies the changes in climate suitability for the tick Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus in the Americas by analysing climate data for the period 1950–99. Location The model was applied to the American continent. Methods A model based on Environmental Niche Modelling was used on a gridded (0.5°) long‐term (1950–99) climate data set. A map of the core range of the species was constructed, and areas where habitat suitability (HS) changes suddenly over short time periods were identified as regions of high sensitivity. Tendency of climate in the continent was evaluated and scenarios constructed for 2025 and 2050. Results Regions of high sensitivity included the southern USA, Mexico and western and central Argentina. Analysis of climate variables in these regions identified water vapour pressure deficit and evaporation as underlying the high sensitivity of habitat suitability in the USA and Mexico, and showed that episodes of high variability are linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Projections of the tendency of HS as observed for the 1950–99 period point to an increase in this value in parts of the southern USA and in central Argentina, a finding that can be attributed to the progressive increase in minimum and yearly averaged temperatures. Conclusions Short‐term changes in climate may drive the system into unstable situations with sudden changes in habitat suitability for the target tick in specific zones of the Americas. Results suggest an increased abiotic (climate) suitability for R. microplus in areas whose habitat is currently unsuitable for this species.     

The Distribution and Ecological Preferences of Boophilus microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Mexico

This paper focuses on the distribution of the cattle tick, Boophilus microplus, in Mexico. The study is aimed to understand the climate factors responsible of the recorded distribution that can statistically define the suitable habitat for the tick. Sites where the tick is recorded display significantly higher values of some climate variables in comparison with those where the tick is absent, namely mean monthly temperature (T) and atmospheric water vapour (W), yearly accumulated T, W and rainfall (R) (p < 0.001 for every variable), with smaller significance for the yearly sum of T/R and T/W ratios (p < 0.05). Interestingly, variables involving the Normalized Derived Vegetation Index (NDVI) do not shown statistical differences between the sites where the tick is present or absent. The best set of habitat-defining variables was integrated into a framework to assess the habitat suitability for the tick in Mexico. We used a point-to-point similarity metric to assign a classification value to a candidate site based on the proximity in environmental space of the most similar record site. A combination of 7 yearly and monthly values for temperature, rainfall and water vapour variables captured the tick distribution. Model performance, as tested with a separate set of distribution tests and defined by the AUC value, was 0.89. Causes of errors as detected with a visual comparison of both known and predicted distribution of the tick may be attributed to the use of a medium resolution, unable to capture locally important features of tick distribution, and to incomplete collections in some parts of the country.     

The Impact of Climate Trends on a Tick Affecting Public Health: A Retrospective Modeling Approach for Hyalomma marginatum (Ixodidae)

The impact of climate trends during the period 1901–2009 on the life cycle of Hyalomma marginatum in Europe was modeled to assess changes in the physiological processes of this threat to public health. Monthly records of temperature and water vapour at a resolution of 0.5° and equations describing the life cycle processes of the tick were used. The climate in the target region affected the rates of the life cycle processes of H. marginatum: development rates increased, mortality rates in molting stages decreased, and the survival rates of questing ticks decreased in wide territories of the Mediterranean basin. The modeling framework indicated the existence of critical areas in the Balkans, central Europe, and the western coast of France, where the physiological processes of the tick improved to extents that are consistent with the persistence of populations if introduced. A spatially explicit risk assessment was performed to detect candidate areas where active surveys should be performed to monitor changes in tick density or persistence after a hypothetical introduction. We detected areas where the critical abiotic (climate) and biotic (host density) factors overlap, including most of the Iberian peninsula, the Mediterranean coast of France, eastern Turkey, and portions of the western Black Sea region. Wild ungulate densities are unavailable for large regions of the territory, a factor that might affect the outcome of the study. The risk of successfully establishing H. marginatum populations at northern latitudes of its current colonization range seems to be still low, even if the climate has improved the performance of the tick in these areas.     

Evaluation of habitat sustainability and vulnerability for beech (Fagus crenata) forests under 110 hypothetical climatic change scenarios in Japan

Questions: Are there any sustainable or vulnerable habitats in which beech (Fagus crenata) forests could survive in Japan under 110 hypothetical climate change scenarios? Location: Six islands of Japan on which beech grows naturally. Methods: An ecological habitat model was used to simulate the potential habitat shifts of beech forests under 110 climate change scenarios. The amount of suitable habitat loss and gain was calculated with three migration options and risk surfaces. Vulnerable and sustainable habitats were identified to evaluate the potential risks and survival of beech forests. Results: The total areas of potential suitable habitats differed considerably depending on the future temperature and precipitation changes. Some areas on the Sea of Japan (SOJ) side showed higher probability of maintaining suitable habitats, whereas there were wider areas in which suitable habitats could not persist under any of the 110 climate change scenarios. Conclusions: The risk surfaces of the suitable habitats showed that decreases in precipitation along with increases in temperature reduced the total areas of suitable habitats. Increases in precipitation with increases in temperature of more than or equal to 2°C always reduce the areas of suitable habitats. Under increased precipitation with a temperature increase of <2°C, the areas of suitable habitats showed an increase, maintenance of the status quo or a decrease, depending on the size of the increase in precipitation. Beech forests in western Japan are predicted to be vulnerable to climate change, whereas some mountains on the SOJ side are predicted to be possible future refugia.     

Blood-sucking ticks (Acarina,Ixodoidea) as an essential component of the urban environment

The problem of urban ticks has arisen from the increased rate of urbanization since WWII. Expansion of municipal boundaries encompasses adjacent territories, so that large areas of wilderness together with all their inhabitants get incorporated into city limits. Current strategies of biodiversity conservation include the creation of green corridors and other forms of connectivity between wilderness and urban areas as well as between green patches within cities. All this allows various mammals and birds to migrate from their native habitats into and between various parts of the cities and to establish permanent urban populations. Medium-sized and larger animals provide adult ticks with blood meal, thus creating suitable conditions for the establishment and persistence of tick populations. Independent tick populations can exist in urban forests, parks, private properties, old cemeteries, etc. Over the last decades, the tick populations that originated from those in natural habitats around the cities have become a permanent component of urban fauna. Among such ticks, the castor bean tick Ixodes ricinus is the most important species for European cities, while the deer tick I. scapularis is of great significance for the East Coast of the United States. The taiga tick I. persulcatus is the most important species for the Russian cities and towns within its range. All these and some other ticks aggressively attack humans and their pets inside cities. The tick species especially well adapted to urban life are those which can live and reproduce in buildings. The brown dog tick Rhipicephalus sanguineus (family Ixodidae), the pigeon ticks from the reflexus group of the genus Argas, and Ornithodoros ticks (family Argasidae), which form urban and semi-urban populations, are the main urban tick pests and vectors. House infestation by ticks can lead to human infection with tick-borne pathogens or severe allergic reactions. Some tick hosts, mammals as well as birds, maintain tick-transmitted pathogens and serve as competent reservoir hosts. Urban populations of these animals can participate in the circulation of some pathogens within cities. Thus, the enlargement of urban green areas followed by their population by wild mammals and birds create good opportunities for the establishment of urban populations of tick vectors with the resulting threat to the health of urban dwellers and their pets. At the same time, our understanding of the real scope and complexity of the problem of urban ticks is far from being sufficient. Finding the ways of protecting the environment without increasing the risk to human health in modern cities is a pressing and challenging problem of our time.     

印度野牛在中国的分布及其栖息地适宜性分析

印度野牛(Bos gaurus)在中国分布在云南省南部和西藏藏南地区。2016年2-3月和2016年11-12月, 我们在西双版纳州、普洱市及高黎贡山区域开展印度野牛调查, 并对藏南地区进行文献调研, 共获得47处印度野牛有效出现位点数据。目前云南地区印度野牛种群数量约180-210头, 面临着严重的生存危机; 在高黎贡山未发现印度野牛。利用印度野牛分布位点数据, 选取地形、土地覆被类型、人类足迹指数、距水源和道路距离以及气候共5类14种因子作为自变量建立MaxEnt生态位模型, 通过模拟云南和西藏印度野牛的适宜分布区, 分析各环境因子对该物种分布的影响。结果表明: 模型预测精度较高, 平均AUC (area under the curve)值为0.994。印度野牛潜在适宜栖息地可划分为高适宜、次适宜、低适宜和不适宜4个等级。高适宜栖息地主要分布在云南省西双版纳和藏南地区, 其中西双版纳部分镶嵌有次适宜和低适宜栖息地斑块, 面积为4,987 km²; 藏南部分高适宜栖息地面积为13,995 km²。次适宜栖息地主要分布于云南省南部、高黎贡山区域以及藏南高适宜栖息地区的边缘, 总面积为32,778 km²。低适宜和不适宜栖息地区连接成片, 位于云南省中部、北部地区和藏南地区北部。Jackknife检验结果显示, 季节温度变化和等温线对印度野牛潜在分布区的影响较大, 而地形因子和降水变化的影响较弱。遥感地物分类结果表明: 橡胶林等人工经济林的种植占据了西双版纳野牛的适宜栖息地, 降低了景观连接度。建议管理部门加大对天然林的保护力度, 控制橡胶林等人工林在野牛适宜栖息地的扩张, 提高景观连接度, 以促进该物种种群的恢复。     

Effects of spatial variation in food availability on spacing behaviour and demography of Eurasian red squirrels

In heterogeneous habitats with limited resources, spacing behaviour will affect individual variation in breeding success and density of populations, and is thus of general interest to ecologists. We investigated how red squirrels Sciurus vulgaris adapt their social organisation to tine‐grained heterogeneity in habitat quality, studying spacing behaviour, habitat use and population dynamics in a forest in north Italy, characterised by a mosaic of high‐quality (chestnut‐pine) and poor‐quality patches. We compared the data with those from more homogeneous broadleaf and mixed woodlands with similar overall tree seed abundance (“stable” habitats). Squirrels lived at lower densities (pre‐breeding density 0.39‐0.58 ha^‐1) than in “stable” habitats, although breeding rate was not reduced. Female breeding success was related to being primiparous as yearlings, and increased with body mass and proportion high‐quality habitat in the home range. Persistency rate of females was as in stable habitats, It was higher than male persistency, but immigration and recruitment rates were male biased, resulting in even sex‐ratio. All residents occupied high‐quality patches, and no subadults established a permanent home range in poor‐quality habitat. Home range and core‐area size was typically larger in males than in females and a male's core‐area overlapped those of other males and of females. Female core‐areas were overlapped by males but not. or very little, by other females (intrasexual territoriality). Home ranges, or core‐areas, were not smaller than in “stable” habitats, nor did we find a higher degree of core‐area overlap. We conclude that in patchy habitats dominant, resident red squirrels exclude dispersing animals from preferred, high‐quality habitat, producing a spacing pattern referred to as ideal despotic distribution, and that poor patches were only used temporarily by transient individuals, resulting in a reduction of density in comparison to populations in “stable” habitats.     

西南地区红花龙胆分布格局模拟与气候变化影响评价

应用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,基于230条分布记录及33个气候因子数据,模拟全新世中期(约6000年前)、当前时期(1950—2000年)和未来(2050s、2070s)气候条件下,红花龙胆西南地区的潜在分布范围;结合多元统计分析和ArcGIS空间分析,筛选影响物种分布的关键气候因子,探讨不同分布区对气候变化的敏感性.结果表明: 模型训练集AUC值为0.942,验证集AUC值为0.849,表明模型预测的准确性较高.5个气候因子(7月最高气温、8月最低气温、昼夜温差与年温差比值、7月最低气温和6月最低气温)对模型贡献最大,累计贡献率达59.9%.随未来气候变化,红花龙胆适生区将呈现先减少后增加的变化趋势,在RCP 8.5情景下,至2070s阶段,西南地区红花龙胆适宜生境总面积与当前气候条件相比减少15.0%,但云南境内适生区和高适生区面积较当前分别增加32.8%和32.7%.红花龙胆适宜生长于温暖、湿润的气候条件下,气候变暖明显影响着适宜生境的面积和范围,尤其低海拔分布区对气候变化较敏感,适宜生境退缩严重,而高海拔地区由于降水、温度条件的改善适宜生境有所增加.随着全球气候的变化,未来西南地区红花龙胆主要分布区可能向西迁移,并向更高海拔扩张.     

Influence of acaricide resistance on cattle-fever tick (Boophilus spp.) infestations in semi-arid thornshrublands: a simulation approach

Cattle-fever tick (Boophilus microplus and B. annulatus) populations that develop acaricide resistance become more difficult to control or eradicate. We used a simulation model to assess the direct and indirect effects of interactions among season, habitat type, grazing strategy, and acaricide resistance on the ability to eradicate Boophilus infestations in semi-arid thornshrublands of Texas, USA. Season of infestation appeared to have the strongest effect, with infestations begun on 27 September (autumn) tending to die out sooner than those begun on 1 March (spring) and to remain undetected. Habitat type had the next strongest effect, with infestations surviving much longer as canopy cover increased from uncanopied buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris) habitats to mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa)-canopied grass habitats. Acaricide resistance had a moderate effect; as expected, highly resistant tick populations survived longer than those with no acaricide resistance. The importance of grazing strategy varied with changes in habitat type: as canopy cover increased, infestation duration increased faster under continuous grazing than under rotational grazing strategies. Importance of grazing strategy also varied with acaricide resistance: detected tick populations with no and slight acaricide resistance subjected to acaricide treatments tended to survive longer under rotational grazing than continuous grazing, due to reduced contact with a treated host. Populations with moderate and high resistance behaved more like untreated populations, tending to survive longer under continuous, rather than rotational, grazing, because they experienced less mortality on a treated host. Assuming acaricide treatments at 2-week intervals and maintenance of cattle in infested pastures, results indicate that, for each habitat type, infesting ticks have a threshold of acaricide resistance below which one can eradicate them faster with continuous grazing than with rotational grazing. As canopy cover increases, this threshold appears to shift from high resistance (in grass) to slight resistance (in mesquite).     

Population dynamics and density-dependent seasonal mortality indices of the tick Rhipicephalus appendiculatus in eastern and southern Africa

Abstract. Eight sets of previously published data on the seasonal abundance of the tick Rhipicephalus appendiculatus in Burundi, Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe are analysed to yield seasonal mortality indices. Correlations between these indices and abiotic (climatic) and biotic (tick density) variables suggest that it is the stage from females to larvae that is most sensitive to adverse abiotic conditions, specifically low moisture availability. Mortality at the other stages of the tick's life cycle is strongly density-dependent. The precise nature of this density-dependence suggests that it may be caused by acquired resistance to ticks by cattle. Robust correlations between satellite-derived vegetation indices, climatic factors and mortality indices suggest that detailed climatic data, often unavailable, may be replaced by satellite data, now widely available, for use in modelling tick populations.     

The tick Ixodes ricinus: distribution and climate preferences in the western Palaearctic

In this study, multivariate spatial clustering on monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) maps is used to classify ecological regions over the western Palaearctic. This classification is then used to delineate the distribution and climate preferences of populations (clades) of the tick Ixodes ricinus L. (Acari: Ixodidae) from a geographically extensive dataset of tick records and a gridded 2.5-km resolution climate dataset. Using monthly layers of the NDVI, regions of similar ecological attributes were defined and nine populations with significant differences in critical climate parameters (P< 0.005) were detected. Grouping of tick records according to other categories, such as political divisions, a 4 degrees x 4 degrees grid overlying the study area, or the CORINE) and USGS) vegetation classification schemes did not provided significantly separated populations (P = 0.094-0.304). Factor analysis and hierarchical tree clustering provided an ecological overview of these tick clades: two Mediterranean and one Scandinavian (western) clades are clearly separated from a node that includes clades of different parts of central Europe and the British Isles, with contrasting affinities between the different clades. The capture records of these ecologically separated clades produce a clear bias when bioclimate envelope modelling is applied to the mapping of habitat suitability for the tick in the western Palaearctic. The best-performing methods (Cohen's kappa = 0.834-0.912) use partial models developed with data from each ecoregion, which are then overlapped over the region of study. It is concluded that the use of ecologically derived ecoregions is an objective step in assessing the presence of ecologically different clades, and provides a guide in the development of data partitioning for habitat suitability modelling.     

Modelling and analysing evolution of dispersal in populations at expanding range boundaries

Abstract 1. Species would be expected to shift northwards in response to current climate warming, but many are failing to do so because of fragmentation of breeding habitats. Dispersal is important for colonisation and an individual‐based spatially explicit model was developed to investigate impacts of habitat availability on the evolution of dispersal in expanding populations. Model output was compared with field data from the speckled wood butterfly Pararge aegeria, which currently is expanding its range in Britain. 2. During range expansion, models simulated positive linear relationships between dispersal and distance from the seed location. This pattern was observed regardless of quantity (100% to 10% habitat availability) or distribution (random vs. gradient distribution) of habitat, although higher dispersal evolved at expanding range margins in landscapes with greater quantity of habitat and in gradient landscapes. Increased dispersal was no longer evident in any landscape once populations had reached equilibrium; dispersal values returned to those of seed populations. However, in landscapes with the least quantity of habitat, reduced dispersal (below that of seed populations) was observed at equilibrium. 3. Evolutionary changes in adult flight morphology were examined in six populations of P. aegeria along a transect from the distribution core to an expanding range margin in England (spanning a latitudinal distance of >200 km). Empirical data were in agreement with model output and showed increased dispersal ability (larger and broader thoraxes, smaller abdomens, higher wing aspect ratios) with increasing distance from the distribution core. Increased dispersal ability was evident in populations from areas colonised >30 years previously, although dispersal changes were generally evident only in females. 4. Evolutionary increases in dispersal ability in expanding populations may help species track future climate changes and counteract impacts of habitat fragmentation by promoting colonisation. However, at the highest levels of habitat loss, increased dispersal was less evident during expansion and reduced dispersal was observed at equilibrium indicating that, for many species, continued habitat fragmentation is likely to outweigh any benefits from dispersal.     

Shrub clearing adversely affects the abundance of Ixodes ricinus ticks

In order to get a better understanding of the importance of vertical forest structure as a component of Ixodes ricinus tick habitat, an experiment was set up in a coniferous forest on sandy soils in northern Belgium. Ticks were sampled in six control and six treatment plots on various sampling occasions in 2008–2010. In the course of the study period, a moderate thinning was carried out in all plots and shrub clearing was performed in the treatment plots. Thinning had no effect on tick abundance, while shrub clearing had an adverse affect on the abundance of all three life stages (larva, nymph, adult) up to 2 years post-clearing. Our findings are especially relevant in the light of the ongoing efforts to improve vertical forest structure in Belgium and many other parts of Europe, which might create suitable habitats for ticks and change the epidemiology of tick-borne diseases. Also, our results indicate that shrub clearing could be applied as a tick control measure in recreational areas where there is a high degree of human-tick contact.     

Identifying refugia and corridors under climate change conditions for the Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province,China

Using a case study of an isolated management unit of Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), we assess the extent that climate change will impact the species’ habitat distribution in the current period and projected into the 2050s. We identify refugia that could maintain the population under climate change and determine dispersal paths for movement of the population to future suitable habitats. Hubei Province, China. We identified climate refugia and potential movements by integrating bioclimatic models with circuit theory and least‐cost model for the current period (1960–1990) and the 2050s (2041–2060). We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm to predict suitable habitat for the current and projected future periods. Suitable habitat areas that were identified during both time periods and that also satisfied home range and dispersal distance conditions were delineated as refugia. We mapped potential movements measured as current flow and linked current and future habitats using least‐cost corridors. Our results indicate up to 1,119 km² of currently suitable habitat within the study range. Based on our projections, a habitat loss of 67.2% due to climate change may occur by the 2050s, resulting in a reduced suitable habitat area of 406 km² and very little new habitat. The refugia areas amounted to 286 km² and were located in Shennongjia National Park and Badong Natural Reserve. Several connecting corridors between the current and future habitats, which are important for potential movements, were identified. Our assessment of the species predicted a trajectory of habitat loss following anticipated future climate change. We believe conservation efforts should focus on refugia and corridors when planning for future species management. This study will assist conservationists in determining high‐priority regions for effective maintenance of the endangered population under climate change and will encourage increased habitat connectivity.     

Paddock‐scale patterns of seed production and dispersal in the invasive shrub Acacia nilotica (Mimosaceae) in northern Australian rangelands

Paddock‐scale Acacia nilotica L. Willd. ex Del. (prickly acacia) spatial distribution, seed production and dispersal patterns were investigated in the Astrebla (Mitchell) grasslands of northern Australia as a step toward predicting future patterns of invasion. A number of hypotheses were tested based on what we know of this species in both Australia and regions where it is native, for example South Africa. It was hypothesized that most A. nilotica seeds would be produced by trees in riparian habitats with access to permanent water. In addition, we predicted that seeds would be dispersed throughout the Astrebla grassland landscape by cattle, following observations that cattle readily ingest and pass seeds and that cattle have access to all areas within paddock boundary fences. Tree density, seed production and seed dispersal by cattle were measured along a series of transects from permanent watering points to paddock boundary fences. Trees associated with permanent watering points produced more seeds per unit area and occurred at higher density than their non‐riparian counterparts. The importance of riparian trees decreased in years with high rainfall and in paddocks with only small areas of riparian habitat. Cattle spread dung and seeds throughout paddocks, with peaks of deposition adjacent to permanent watering points. These results suggest that invasion patterns are likely to be uneven across the landscape and may be reactive to climate. High seedling recruitment and possible thicket formation is expected adjacent to permanent watering points and wherever cattle congregate. Patterns of recruitment in non‐riparian areas are likely to be relatively sparse. The importance of post‐dispersal factors in determining recruitment patterns is discussed.     

气候变化对丹顶鹤秋季迁徙路线潜在生境适宜性的影响

目前全球变暖趋势的加剧对丹顶鹤等大型濒危水禽的栖息地造成了严重的威胁。由于监测方法和技术手段的限制,丹顶鹤在迁徙路线上潜在生境的分布范围尚不清楚,气候变化对丹顶鹤迁徙路线生境适宜性的影响机理有待进一步研究。基于138个丹顶鹤样本分布信息和19种环境变量数据,利用 BIOMOD2 软件包构建了丹顶鹤潜在生境评价的组合模型,对丹顶鹤在亚洲东部秋季迁徙路线上的生境适宜性进行数值模拟,并预测SSP1.2-6气候背景下2021-2040年、2041-2060年、2061-2080年、2081-2100年四个不同阶段的丹顶鹤潜在生境范围的变化趋势。研究结果表明:与单模型的模拟结果相比,集成9种单模型的BIOMOD2组合模型预测精度更高。集成模型的重要性分析表明,气温日较差是丹顶鹤生境适宜性变化的最重要的影响因子。受气候变化的影响2021-2040年、2041-2060年、2061-2080年、2081-2100年丹顶鹤潜在生境的面积将分别减少到2.60×10⁵km²、2.58×10⁵km²、2.75×10⁵km²、2.56×10⁵km²,迁徙路线上胶东半岛和环渤海地区适栖生境面积减少的最为显著。本研究对于迁徙路线上珍稀水禽潜在适宜生境的模拟及全球变化背景下珍稀水禽栖息地的保育和修复具有重要意义。