An estimate of the sustainable rate of shell extraction from the Dutch Wadden Sea

1. Shell production by cockles Cerastoderma edule was studied to examine whether or not the present licensed rate of shell extraction in the Dutch Wadden Sea exceeds the current rate of shell addition to the exploitable stocks.
2. Long-term data on numbers of cockles and weights of their shells were used to estimate their annual production on Balgzand, a 50-km² tidal flat area in the western-most part of the Wadden Sea. During the 1969–97 period, it amounted to an average of 125 g m^–2, including 107 g m^–2 of shells large enough to be exploitable for shell-lime fishery.
3. The very irregular annual recruitment of cockles was the main cause of the wide 95% confidence limits (74 and 140 g m^–2 year^–1) of this 28-year estimate. Moreover, high mortality rates in severe winters substantially reduced production per recruit in some year classes.
4. About one-third of the estimated production does not reach exploitable stocks, because it is fragmented by birds (particularly eider ducks), permanently buried in the sediment, or removed by the fishery for live cockles.
5. During the last few decades, the estimated mean amount added annually to the exploitable stocks was 88 million kg or 132 000 m³ of large cockle shells. This amount compares favourably with the current annual level of removal of 134 000 m³ of shells, three-quarters of which are cockles.
6. Even at temporarily lower production rates, the exploitation of shell stocks at its present rate is not expected to lead to a rapid exhaustion of the existing stocks in the tidal inlets of the Dutch Wadden Sea, as these stocks will be in the order of a few million m³.     

Response surface methodology to optimize the nutritional parameters for enhanced production of jasmonic acid by Lasiodiplodia theobromae

Aims:  To find out the cumulative effect of the nutritional parameters and to enhance the production of jasmonic acid (JA) in static fermentation by Lasiodiplodia theobromae using response surface methodology (RSM).
Method and Results:  Malt extract, sucrose, NaNO₃ and MgSO₄.7H₂O were analysed by a 30-trial central composite design using RSM for optimizing their concentrations in the medium and the effect of their mutual interaction on JA production. Sucrose and NaNO₃ were found highly significant in influencing the JA production. Malt extract and MgSO₄.7H₂O showed an effect on the JA production in interaction with other variables. When the optimum values of the parameters obtained through RSM (19·95 g l⁻¹ malt extract, 50 g l⁻¹ sucrose, 7·5 g l⁻¹ NaNO₃ and 3·51 g l⁻¹ MgSO₄.7H₂O) were applied, 32% increase in JA production (299 mg l⁻¹) was observed in comparison with 225 mg l⁻¹ of JA produced with same media components not analysed by RSM and subsequently validated the statistical model.
Conclusions:  Increase in JA production was achieved by optimizing the nutritional parameters.
Significance and Impact of the Study:  This is the first report of using RSM for optimizing a medium for JA production. It resulted in an increase in JA production without augmentation of costly additives.     

The effect of an emergent macrophyte (Typha angustifolia) on sediment resuspension in a shallow north temperate lake

1. The effects of emergent macrophytes on water turbidity and sediment resuspension in the shallow Kirkkojärvi basin of Lake Hiidenvesi were studied with sediment traps, and concomitant sediment and water samples. The study was conducted during May–August in three different zones of a stand of the emergent Typha angustifolia .
2. Within the stand (5 m from the edge), both the concentration of suspended solids and the rate of sediment resuspension were significantly lower than at the edge and outside the stand (5 m from the edge). The differences between the zones increased towards the end of summer together with the growing stem density. During the study period (82 days), 2210 g dw m⁻² of sediment was resuspended in the outer zone. At the edge and in the inner zone, the corresponding numbers were 1414 and 858 g dw m⁻², respectively.
3. With the resuspended sediment, 39.4 mg P  m⁻² day⁻¹ was brought to the water column outside the stand, 22.4 mg P  m⁻² day⁻¹ at the edge and 13.4 mg P  m⁻² day⁻¹ within the stand.
4. In early summer, the concentration of suspended solids had a highly significant positive effect on soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentration in the water, whereas in late summer no effect was found. During the study period, phosphorus retention by emergent macrophyte stands corresponded to 3–5% of the present annual external phosphorus loading of the Kirkkojärvi basin.     

Spatial and temporal patterns of microcrustacean assemblage structure and secondary production in a wetland ecosystem

1. In contrast to extensive studies of zooplankton in lakes, the role of microcrustaceans in wetlands is not well studied. In this study, spatial and temporal patterns of microcrustacean assemblage structure and secondary production were quantified over a 2-year period in a southeastern U.S.A. wetland.
2. Thirty-two species, including 19 cladocerans, 10 copepods and three ostracods, generated different temporal patterns of density and production between vegetated ( Nymphaea ) and non-vegetated (open-water) zones reflecting species-specific differences in life histories.
3. Summer assemblages were dominated by small, planktonic filter-feeders, typified by high annual production/biomass ( P / B ) and daily production. In contrast, winter assemblages were dominated by larger, epibenthic detritivores with low P / B and high biomass. Seasonal shifts in the relative importance of planktonic species in the warmer months to benthic and epiphytic species in the cooler months suggest that energy flow pathways through microcrustaceans may vary seasonally.
4. Total annual production was higher during both years in the Nymphaea zone (13.0 g and 13.6 g DM m⁻² year⁻¹) than the open-water (8.2 and 6.3 g DM m⁻² year⁻¹), and was similar between years for the entire wetland pond (12.3 and 12.2 g DM m⁻² year⁻¹).
5. Although wetland ecosystems have been the subject of considerable ecological research in the past 20 years, our study is one of the few to demonstrate a highly diverse and relatively productive microcrustacean assemblage. Such comprehensive production studies can be used to quantify the ecological importance of microcrustaceans in freshwater wetland ecosystems.     

Plant palatability and disturbance level in aquatic habitats: an experimental approach using the snail Lymnaea stagnalis (L.)

1. The palatability of aquatic macrophytes to the snail Lymnaea stagnalis was investigated in the laboratory. Eight species of macrophyte were selected from habitats that differed in either flood disturbance regime or nutrient status.
2. In a non-choice test, single macrophyte species were offered to individual snails. The average amount of plant dry mass consumed per Lymnaea dry mass ranged from 3.6 ± 1.4 (±SE) to 63.6 ± 13.9 mg g^–1 day^–1 across plant species. In a choice test, all eight plant species were presented simultaneously to sets of five snails. The average total consumption was 66.1 ± 3.8 mg g^–1 day^–1 and the maximum average consumption for a single plant was 26.2 ± 3.6 mg g^–1 day^–1.
3. In both tests, the amount consumed by snails differed significantly between the plant species. The species growing in undisturbed habitats were the least consumed. Habitat nutrient status was unrelated to plant palatability.
4. These results suggest that macrophyte species growing in habitats that are rarely disturbed by floods allocate a greater proportion of their resources to resisting herbivory.     

Potassium dependence and phytoplankton ecology: an experimental study

SUMMARY 1. Unialgal cultures of three species common in the freshwater phytoplankton were used to test limitation of specific growth rate and final yield in defined media of low K⁺ concentration (range <0.3–6 μmol L⁻¹ or mmol m⁻³).
2. Growth rate of the diatom Asterionella formosa was independent of K⁺ concentration above 0.7 μmol L⁻¹. Final yield was dependent on initial concentration when accompanied by K⁺ depletion below this concentration, but not by lesser depletion with more residual K⁺. Analyses of particulate K in the biomass indicated a mean final cell content of 2.8 μmol K 10⁻⁸ cells, approximately 1.0% of the organic dry weight.
3. Less detailed work with the diatom Diatoma elongatum showed no dependence of growth rate or final yield upon the initial K⁺ concentration in the range 0.8–3.2 μmol L⁻¹. The phytoflagellate Plagioselmis nannoplanctica suffered net mortality in the lowest concentration tested, 0.8 μmol L⁻¹.
4. Comparison with the range of K⁺ concentration in natural fresh waters, including a depletion induced by an aquatic macrophyte, suggests that K⁺ is unlikely to limit growth of phytoplankton. Nevertheless, there can be correlation of K⁺ with lake trophy.     

Long-term effects of successive Ca(OH)2 and CaCO3 treatments on the water quality of two eutrophic hardwater lakes

1. Whole-lake experiments were conducted in two hardwater lakes (Halfmoon and Figure Eight) in Alberta, Canada, to investigate the effectiveness of repeated lime (slaked lime: Ca(OH)₂ and/or calcite: CaCO₃) treatments (5–78 mg L^–1) for up to 7 years.
2. Randomized intervention analysis of intersystem differences between the experimental and three reference lakes demonstrated a decline in euphotic total phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations in the experimental lakes after repeated lime treatments.
3. After the second lime application to Halfmoon Lake, mean winter total phosphorus release rates (TPRR) decreased to < 1 mg m^–2 day^–1 compared with 3.6 mg m^–2 day^–1 during the winter after initial treatment. In the final year of lime application, mean summer TPRR decreased to 4.5 mg m^–2 day^–1 compared with 7.6 mg m^–2 day^–1 in the pre-treatment year.
4. Mean macrophyte biomass declined and species composition was altered at 1 and 2 m depths in Figure Eight Lake during lime application. Over the first 6 years of treatment, macrophyte biomass at 2 m declined by 95% compared with concentrations recorded during the initial treatment year. In the last year of the study, macrophyte biomass at 2 m reached initial treatment concentrations, which coincided with the greatest water transparency. Over the treatment period, macrophyte species shifted from floating to rooted plants.
5. Multiple lime applications can improve water quality in eutrophic hardwater lakes for periods of up to 7 years.     

Optimization of medium constituents for improved chitinase production by Paenibacillus sp. D1 using statistical approach

Aims:  Statistical optimization of medium components for improved chitinase production by Paenibacillus sp. D1.
Methods and Results:  Urea, K₂HPO₄, chitin and yeast extract were identified as significant components influencing chitinase production by Paenibacillus sp. D1 using Plackett–Burman method. Response surface methodology (central composite design) was applied for further optimization. The concentrations of medium components for improved chitinase production were as follows (g l⁻¹): urea, 0·33; K₂HPO₄, 1·17; MgSO₄, 0·3; yeast extract, 0·65 and chitin, 3·75. This statistical optimization approach led to the production of 93·2 ± 0·58 U ml⁻¹ of chitinase.
Conclusions:  The important factors controlling the production of chitinase by Paenibacillus sp. D1 were identified as urea, K₂HPO₄, chitin and yeast extract. Statistical approach was found to be very effective in optimizing the medium components in manageable number of experimental runs with overall 2·56-fold increase in chitinase production.
Significance and Impact of the Study:  The present investigation provides a report on statistical optimization of medium components for improved chitinase production by Paenibacillus sp. D1. Paenibacillus species are gram-positive, spore-forming bacteria with several PGPR and biocontrol potentials. However, only few reports concerning mycolytic enzyme production especially chitinases are available. Chitinase produced by Paenibacillus sp. D1 represents new source for biotechnological and agricultural use.     

Effects of feeding and induction strategy on the production of BmR1 antigen in recombinant E. coli

Aim:  To investigate the effects of feeding and induction strategies on the production of Bm R1 recombinant antigen.
Methods and Results:  Fed-batch fermentation was studied with respect to the specific growth rate and mode of induction to assess the growth potential of the bacteria in a bioreactor and to produce high yield of Bm R1 recombinant antigen. Cells were grown at a controlled specific growth rate (μ_set) during pre-induction, followed by constant feeding postinduction. The highest biomass (24·3 g l⁻¹) was obtained during fed-batch process operated at μ_set of 0·15 h⁻¹, whereby lower μ_set (0·075 h⁻¹) gave the highest protein production (9·82 mg l⁻¹). The yield of Bm R1 was increased by 1·2-fold upon induction with 1 mmol l⁻¹ IPTG (isopropyl-β- d -thiogalactoside) compared to using 5 mmol l⁻¹ and showed a further 3·5-fold increase when the culture was induced twice at the late log phase.
Conclusions:  Combination of feeding at a lower μ_set and twice induction with 1 mmol l⁻¹ IPTG yielded the best result of all variables tested, promising an improved method for Bm R1 production .
Significance and Impact of the Study:  This method can be used to increase the production scale of the Bm R1 recombinant antigen to meet the increasing demand for Brugia Rapid^™, a commercial diagnostic test for detection of brugian filariasis.     

Longevity of the freshwater anostracan Streptocephalus mackini (Crustacean: Anostraca) in relation to food (Chlorella vulgaris) concentration

SUMMARY 1. Temporary ponds are inhabited by a variety of invertebrates, of which anostracans are an important group. We studied the lifetables of male and female anostracan Streptocephalus mackini at 3 algal concentrations (0.5 × 10⁶, 1.0 × 10⁶ and 1.5 × 10⁶ cells mL⁻¹).
2. Regardless of sex, S. mackini showed better survivorship at lower food levels. The longest average lifespan observed was 85 ± 2 days for males fed Chlorella at 0.5 × 10⁶ cells mL⁻¹.
3. Both net reproductive rate and generation time decreased with increasing food level. The highest net reproductive rate was about 120 cysts per female. The longest generation time of about 40 days, observed at 0.5 × 10⁶ cells mL⁻¹, was more than three times that at 1.5 × 10⁶ cells mL⁻¹.
4. The rate of population increase ( r ) was nearly the same (0.31 ± 0.06) at high (1.5 × 10⁶ cells mL⁻¹) and intermediate (1.0 × 10⁶ cells mL⁻¹) food levels. The r -value at low food level (0.5 × 10⁶ cells mL⁻¹ of Chlorella ) was 0.20 ± 0.01 per day.     

Range size, dispersal and niche breadth in the herbaceous flora of central England

1 It has been suggested that rare species differ from related common species in a variety of traits, including (among others) niche breadth and dispersal ability. We set out to test these ideas in the flora of central England.
2 We used two measures of range: number of hectads in Britain (national range) and number of 1 km² in a 3000-km² area of central England (local range). In each case we regressed phylogenetically independent contrasts in geographical range against contrasts in range of germination temperature (one aspect of fundamental niche breadth), terminal velocity of dispersule (a measure of wind dispersal capacity), seed weight and specialism index (a measure of the diversity of habitats exploited in central England). Seed weights and germination temperature were known for 263 species, specialism index for 261 and terminal velocity for 178.
3 Specialism index explained by far the largest part of the variance in local and national range. Seed weight, terminal velocity and germination temperature each explained only 2–4% of the variation in local range, and none of the variation in national range.
4 Most previous attempts to relate niche breadth and dispersal ability to range have concerned animals. There is little convincing published evidence for plants, and in the British herbaceous seed plants studied here the best predictor of range was diversity of habitats exploited. This pattern was independent of phylogeny.     

Differing effects of suspended sediments on the performance of native and exotic Daphnia

1. Although large cladocerans are usually uncommon in large rivers, Daphnia lumholtzi (an exotic species in North America) is widespread and occasionally abundant. We collected zooplankton on the Illinois River (Illinois, U.S.A.) in 1995 and 1996 and found that the peak density of D. lumholtzi (25 L⁻¹) typically exceeded that of all native species combined. Maximum density occurred during warm periods (up to 27 °C) when concentrations of inorganic suspended sediments were high (>50 mg L⁻¹).
2. Using a life table experiment, we examined the effects of variation in suspended sediment (0 and 80 mg L⁻¹) and food (10⁴ and 10⁵ Ankistrodesmus cells mL⁻¹) on fitness of D. lumholtzi and the native Daphnia parvula. Daphnia lumholtzi had greater survivorship than D. parvula in most treatments and higher life-time fertility than D. parvula in all treatments. Both species achieved their fastest intrinsic rates of growth in treatments with high food, but their responses to suspended solids differed. The growth rate of D. lumholtzi in high food was slightly increased by higher turbidity, whereas that of D. parvula was depressed.
3. Results suggest that the ability of D. lumholtzi to tolerate suspended solids is an important factor contributing to its success in invading North American rivers.     

Elephants caught in the middle: impacts of war, fences and people on elephant distribution and abundance in the Caprivi Strip, Namibia

We conducted wet [26 March–4 April 2003 (Apr03)] and dry [1–8 November 2005 (Nov05)] season aerial surveys of African elephants ( Loxodonta africana Blumenbach) in the Caprivi Strip, Namibia to provide an updated status report on elephant numbers and distribution and assist with a historical analysis of elephant distribution and abundance in the Caprivi Strip. During the wet season when water was available in seasonal pans, elephants were widely distributed throughout the survey area. In contrast, during the dry season, a majority of elephant herds occurred within 30 km of the perennial Kwando, Linyanti and Okavango rivers and few herds occurred within the West Caprivi Game Reserve where water in the seasonal pans was limited. We estimated 5318 elephants for the 7731-km² survey area (0.71 elephants km⁻²) for the Apr03 wet season survey and 6474 elephants for the 8597-km² survey area (0.75 elephants km⁻²) for the Nov05 dry season survey. Based on our aerial surveys and reports of elephant numbers and distribution from historical aerial surveys and telemetry studies, civil war, veterinary fences and human activities appear to have effected changes in African elephant abundance, distribution and movements in the Caprivi Strip, Namibia since 1988 when the first comprehensive aerial surveys were conducted.     

Abundance–range size relationships in the herbaceous flora of central England

1 Using data from a survey of over 10 000 1-m² quadrats in a 3000-km² area, we examined the relationship between abundance and range for the vascular plant flora of central England.
2 At the level of the whole landscape, abundance was not related to local, regional or national range. Local, regional and national range were closely related to each other.
3 At the level of the whole landscape, range was significantly and positively related to both niche breadth (expressed as the range of habitats exploited) and to habitat availability, although niche breadth appeared to be more important. Abundance was not related to niche breadth or habitat availability. Since specialist species are mainly confined to uncommon habitats (especially wetlands), we conclude that the relationship between range and niche breadth is not an artefact of widespread species passively sampling more habitats.
4 At the level of individual habitat types, significant positive relationships between range and abundance were common. These relationships remained after controlling for the effects of phylogeny. For predominantly annual weed communities, the relationship was linear, but for perennial communities it was markedly 'upper triangular', i.e. all combinations of range and abundance were found except wide range/low abundance. The evidence suggests that this difference can be attributed to the greater mobility of annual weeds.     

The distribution and population of the Seychelles (Bare-legged) Scops Owl Otus insularis on Mahé: consequences for conservation

This study details the first baseline survey of the Critically Endangered Seychelles Scops Owl Otus insularis , currently only recorded from the 152-km² island of Mahé, the largest and highest island in the granitic Seychelles, western Indian Ocean. A survey was conducted in October 2000–March 2001 using playback of conspecific calls in random squares (500 m × 500 m) with midpoints being at least equal to 100 m asl. Playback was conducted in 159 of a possible 375 squares (42%). Territorial responses were detected in 60 of 159 (38%) squares, which represented an estimated 70 distinct territorial responses. Pairs responded in 51% and single birds responded in 49% of squares where a response was elicited. Scops Owls were more likely to be detected at higher altitudes, in mixed forest, and sympatrically with endemic frogs ( Tachycnemis seychellensis and Sooglossus spp.). Two models were used to predict population: one based exclusively on altitude resulted in a population estimate of 134–159 territories (268–318 individuals) within a 34-km² range, whereas a second incorporating altitude and vegetation, which excluded unsuitable habitat, resulted in an estimate of 125–142 territories (250–284 individuals) in a 31-km² range. We discuss the implications of our findings to the Owl's conservation status and management.     

Effects of spring flood and water level draw-down on methane dynamics in the littoral zone of boreal lakes

1. The annual dynamics of methane (CH₄) in a temporarily flooded meadow, mire bank, lacustrine sedge fen, temporarily and continuously inundated sedge ( Carex sp.) and reed ( Phragmites australis ) marshes were studied from June to November in the humic mesoeutrophic Lake Mekrijärvi and in eutrophicated parts of the mesotrophic Lake Heposelkä in the southern part of East Finland. The effects of water level and temperature on littoral CH₄ fluxes were determined. Vegetation zonation along the moisture gradient, and associated CH₄ fluxes, were evaluated.
2. The CH₄ flux increased along the moisture gradient from –0.2 to 14.2 mg CH₄ m^–2 h^–1, and was highest in the permanently inundated marshes. The duration of anoxia in the sediment caused differences in the CH₄ flux. Estimated emissions for the period 1 June – 30 September in continuously inundated sparse reed and sedge marshes, drying sedge marsh, and lacustrine sedge fen were 13, 11 and 6 g CH₄ m^–2, respectively.
3. In continuously inundated vegetation, the fluxes were highest in late July/early August. The seasonal CH₄ flux pattern suggested that the fluxes were regulated by the supply of organic matter during the course of the summer and the water level. In the temporarily flooded zone, the seasonal CH₄ flux dynamics was greatly affected by changes in the lake water level, the fluxes being highest during the spring flood in early June.     

Maturing dynamics of surface microflora in Fontina PDO cheese studied by culture-dependent and -independent methods

Aims:  To study the evolution of rind microbial communities in Fontina PDO cheese.
Methods and Results:  Four batches were examined for their surface microflora during ripening, carried out in two different maturing caves, at Ollomont and Pré-Saint-Didier, Aosta Valley region, Northwest of Italy. Culture-dependent methodologies were combined with culture-independent analysis (PCR-DGGE). Yeasts were found to increase from 10³ to 10⁶ CFU cm⁻² in 28 days, with consequent rise of surface pH, which allowed the growth of salt-tolerant bacteria, in particular coryneforms which reached 10⁹ CFU cm⁻² at the end of 3 months. Coagulase-negative cocci and lactic acid bacteria reached 10⁷ CFU cm⁻² in the same period. Debaryomyces hansenii and Candida sake were the species more constantly present throughout the whole maturing process. As early as after 1 day since manufacture, Lactococcus lactis subsp. lactis and Streptococcus thermophilus were detected on cheese rinds. Arthrobacter nicotianae , Brevibacterium casei and Corynebacterium glutamicum were found after 7–28 days .
Conclusions:  According to cluster analysis of DGGE profiles, the maturing environment seemed to influence the dynamics of microbial groups on Fontina surfaces.
Significance and Impact of the Study:  These results represent a first picture of micro-organisms colonizing Fontina PDO rinds. Further studies are in progress to better understand the origin of this surface microflora and to formulate surface starters.     

Statistical optimization of medium components for extracellular protease production by an extreme haloarchaeon, Halobacterium sp. SP1(1)

Aims:  Optimization of medium components for extracellular protease production by Halobacterium sp. SP1(1) using statistical approach.
Methods and Results:  The significant factors influencing the protease production as screened by Plackett–Burman method were identified as soybean flour and FeCl₃. Response surface methodology such as central composite design was applied for further optimization studies. The concentrations of medium components for higher protease production as optimized using this approach were (g l⁻¹): NaCl, 250; KCl, 2; MgSO₄, 10; tri-Na-citrate, 1·5; soybean flour, 10 and FeCl₃, 0·16. This statistical optimization approach led to production of 69·44 ± 0·811 U ml⁻¹ of protease.
Conclusions:  Soybean flour and FeCl₃ were identified as important factors controlling the production of extracellular protease by Halobacterium sp. SP1(1). The statistical approach was found to be very effective in optimizing the medium components in manageable number of experimental runs with overall 3·9-fold increase in extracellular protease production.
Significance and Impact of the Study:  The present study is the first report on statistical optimization of medium components for production of haloarchaeal protease. The study also explored the possibility of using extracellular protease produced by Halobacterium sp. SP1(1) for various applications like antifouling coatings and fish sauce preparation using cheaper raw material.     

Seasonal patterns of viruses, bacteria and dissolved organic carbon in a riverine wetland

SUMMARY 1. Viral and bacterial abundances were studied in relation to environmental attributes over an annual period, for both planktonic and attached (sediment, aquatic macrophyte and submerged wood) habitats, in a riverine wetland.
2. Annual mean abundance of planktonic viruses ranged from 2.3 × 10⁵−3.8 × 10⁵ particles mL⁻¹ and varied according to sampling site. Significant seasonal patterns in viral abundance were evident and appeared to be linked to variations in bacterial abundance, dissolved organic carbon and inorganic nutrients.
3. Annual mean abundance of viruses associated with surfaces ranged from 1.3 × 10⁶ particles cm⁻² on aquatic macrophytes to 1.1 × 10⁷ particles cm⁻² on wood and also showed seasonal patterns. The difference in viral dynamics among the different sites emphasizes the importance of considering habitat diversity within wetlands when examining microbial communities.     

Habitat-based statistical models for predicting the spatial distribution of butterflies and day-flying moths in a fragmented landscape

1.  Most species' surveys and biodiversity inventories are limited by time and money. Therefore, it would be extremely useful to develop predictive models of animal distributions based on habitat, and to use these models to estimate species' densities and range sizes in poorly sampled regions.
2.  In this study, two sets of data were collected. The first set consisted of over 2000 butterfly transect counts, which were used to determine the relative density of each species in 16 major habitat types in a 35-km² area of fragmented landscape in north-west Wales. For the second set of data, the area was divided into 140 cells using a 500-m grid, and the extent of each habitat and the presence or absence of each butterfly and moth species was determined for each cell.
3.  Logistic regression was used to model the relationship between species' distribution and predicted density, based on habitat extent, in each grid square. The resultant models were used to predict butterfly distributions and occupancy at a range of spatial scales.
4.  Using a jack-knife procedure, our models successfully reclassified the presence or absence of species in a high percentage of grid squares (mean 83% agreement). There were highly significant relationships between the modelled probability of species occurring at regional and local scales and the number of grid squares occupied at those scales.
5.  We conclude that basic habitat data can be used to predict insect distributions and relative densities reasonably well within a fragmented landscape. It remains to be seen how accurate these predictions will be over a wider area.