Mortality and displaced mortality during heat waves in the Czech Republic

The aims of this study were to assess impacts of hot summer periods on mortality in the Czech Republic and to quantify the size of the short-term displacement effect which resulted in lower than expected mortality after heat waves. The analysis covered the period 1982–2000 when several extraordinarily hot summers occurred in central Europe. Daily total all-cause mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in the entire population of the Czech Republic (approximately 10 million inhabitants) were examined. The daily death counts were standardized to account for the long-term decline in mortality and the seasonal and weekly cycles. Heat-related mortality is better expressed if 1-day lag after temperature is considered compared to the unlagged relationship. With the 1-day lag, both excess total mortality and excess CVD mortality were positive during all 17 heat waves, and in 14 (12) heat waves the increase in total (CVD) mortality was statistically significant (P=0.05). The mean relative rise in total mortality during heat waves was 13%. The response was greater in females than males and similar regardless of whether total or CVD mortality was used. The largest relative increases, exceeding 20% in both total and CVD mortality, were associated with heat waves which occurred in early summer (the first half of July 1984 and June 1994). The mortality displacement effect played an important role since mortality tended to be lower than expected after hot periods. The mean net mortality change due to heat waves was estimated to be about a 1% increase in the number of deaths. The large relative increases during some heat waves were particularly noteworthy since the study (in contrast to most analyses of the heat stress/mortality relationship) was not restricted to an urban area and/or an elderly population.     

The impact of year-to-year changes in the weather on the dynamics of Daphnia in a thermally stratified lake

The factors influencing the seasonal dynamics of Daphnia in a thermally stratified lake (Esthwaite Water) are described and related to long-term changes in the weather. The Daphnia produced three cohorts in the year and the strength of the cohorts was determined by year-to-year variations in the physical characteristics of the lake and the abundance of edible algae. Food was most abundant in early summer when small, fast-growing flagellates were particularly common. In late summer, the phytoplankton community was dominated by large, inedible species but edible forms re-appeared when nutrients were entrained by wind mixing. Examples are presented to demonstrate the effect that year-to-year variations in the weather have on the growth of the phytoplankton and the dynamics of the Daphnia. In ‘good’ years, when the lake stratifies early and there are periods of episodic mixing in summer, there are two ‘pulses’ of edible algae and two strong cohorts of Daphnia. In ‘bad’ years when stratification is delayed and there is little episodic mixing, the growth of the edible algae is suppressed and the Daphnia produce two weak cohorts. The results are discussed in relation to the impact of intermediate disturbances on growth of phytoplankton and current theories of population regulation in Daphnia. The evidence suggests that the dynamics of the Daphnia in the lake are strongly influenced by seasonal variations in the mixing regime, the recycling of nutrients and the episodic growth of edible algae.     

The impact of the 2003 summer drought on the intra-annual growth pattern of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and oak (Quercus robur L.) on a dry site in the Netherlands

Climate change is expected to result in more extreme weather conditions over large parts of Europe, such as the prolonged drought of 2003. As water supply is critical for tree growth on many sites in North-Western Europe, such droughts will affect growth, species competition, and forest dynamics. To be able to assess the susceptibility of tree species to climate change, it is necessary to understand growth responses to climate, at a high temporal resolution. We therefore studied the intra-annual growth dynamics of three beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) and five oak trees (Quercus robur L.) growing on a sandy site in the east of the Netherlands for 2 years: 2003 (oak and beech) and 2004 (oak). Microcores were taken at 2-week intervals from the end of April until the end of October. Intra-annual tree-ring formation was compared with prior and contemporary records of precipitation and temperature from a nearby weather station.The results indicate that oak and beech reacted differently to the summer drought in 2003. During the drought, wood formation in both species ceased, but in beech, it recovered after the drought. The causes of species-specific differences in intra-annual wood formation are discussed in the context of susceptibility to drought.     

Decreased impacts of the 2003 heat waves on mortality in the Czech Republic: an improved response?

The paper examines impacts on mortality of heat waves in 2003, the hottest summer on record in the Czech Republic, and compares them with previous similar events. While most summer heat waves over the period since 1986 were associated with significantly elevated mortality, this was not the case for three out of the four heat waves in 2003. The relatively weak mortality response was particularly noteworthy for the most severe heat wave which occurred in the first 10 days of August 2003 and resulted in enormous excess mortality in some western European countries. A mortality displacement effect and short-term adaptation to heat contributed to the reduced mortality impacts of the heat waves that followed after previous relatively warm periods. However, the decreased mortality response of the 2003 heat waves compared to previous heat waves in the 1990s is also likely to have arisen from positive health-care and other socio-economic changes in the post-communist central European region over the past decade, as well as a better public awareness of heat-related risks due to enhanced media coverage and regular biometeorological forecast and warnings.     

Resolving biological impacts of multiple heat waves: interaction of hot and recovery days

Heat waves are increasing with global warming and have more dramatic biological effects on organisms in natural and agricultural ecosystems than mean temperature increase. However, predicting the impact of future heat waves on organisms and ecosystems is challenging because we still have a limited understanding of how the different components that characterize heat waves interact. Here we take an experimental approach to examine the individual and combine consequences of two important features that characterize heat waves: duration of successive hot days and recovery days between two hot spells. Specifically we exposed individuals of a global agricultural pest, the aphid Sitobion avenae to different heat wave scenarios by factorially manipulating the number of extreme hot days versus normal days and altered which period individuals experienced first in their life cycle. We found that effects of heat waves were driven by a delicate balance of damage during hot periods versus repair during normal periods. Increasing the duration of hot days in heat waves had a negative effect on various demographic rates and life‐time fitness of individuals, but magnitude of this effect was typically contingent on the temporal clustering of hot periods. Importantly, this interaction effect indicates that changes in the temporal distribution of extreme hot versus normal days can strongly alter the performance of organisms and dynamics of populations even when the total number of hot days during a given period remains unchanged. Together, these results emphasize the importance of accounting for the temporal distribution and quantitative patterns of extreme temperature events for predicting their consequences of natural and agricultural ecosystems.     

Effect of the extreme summer heat waves on isolated populations of two orophitic plants in the north Apennines (Italy)

One of the lesser known effects of global climate change is the occurrence of heat waves. Climatic models predict that heat waves will become more intense, longer lasting and/or more frequent, as a consequence of the increased inter‐annual variability and increased average values of summer temperatures. Plants are damaged by heat waves through direct effects of extreme temperatures influencing plant physiology and through indirect effects, like drought and exposure to high ozone concentration. This study investigates the flowering abundance and biomass production of two orophytic species, Alopecurus alpinus Vill. and Vicia cusnae Foggi et Ricceri following the heat wave that occurred in the summer of 2003 and analyses the effects of summer temperatures during the period 1999–2004 on the species reproductive performance. In 2003, we observed a significant decrease in the number of flowering stems and flowers per flowering stem for both species. Flower production reached its lowest value in correspondence to the heat wave in 2003 and Redundancy Analysis showed that flower production was related to the mean June temperature. Flower production was more sensitive than vegetative growth, which was maintained. This suggests that changes in reproductive strategies, e.g. changes in the ratio between sexual and clonal reproduction, may occur by as an effect of extreme weather events. Such changes may be of great importance when the population consists of a small number of flowering individuals, as is the case for A. alpinus and V. cusnae in the study area. As a consequence, although the plants generally responded positively to gradual warming, we found that, during the monitoring period 1999–2004, extreme temperatures had a negative effect on A. alpinus and V. cusnae.     

The urban heat island and its impact on heat waves and human health in Shanghai

With global warming forecast to continue into the foreseeable future, heat waves are very likely to increase in both frequency and intensity. In urban regions, these future heat waves will be exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, and will have the potential to negatively influence the health and welfare of urban residents. In order to investigate the health effects of the urban heat island (UHI) in Shanghai, China, 30 years of meteorological records (1975–2004) were examined for 11 first- and second-order weather stations in and around Shanghai. Additionally, automatic weather observation data recorded in recent years as well as daily all-cause summer mortality counts in 11 urban, suburban, and exurban regions (1998–2004) in Shanghai have been used. The results show that different sites (city center or surroundings) have experienced different degrees of warming as a result of increasing urbanization. In turn, this has resulted in a more extensive urban heat island effect, causing additional hot days and heat waves in urban regions compared to rural locales. An examination of summer mortality rates in and around Shanghai yields heightened heat-related mortality in urban regions, and we conclude that the UHI is directly responsible, acting to worsen the adverse health effects from exposure to extreme thermal conditions.     

Investigations on the radiocaesium contamination of wild boar (Sus scrofa) meat in Rhineland-Palatinate: a stomach content analysis

To substantiate the pathways of radiocaesium contamination in wild boars in parts of Rhineland-Palatinate, we analysed radiocaesium-activityconcentration of 2,433 wild boars shot in an area covering 45,400 ha in the western part of the Palatinate Forest between January 2001 and February 2003. Also, for a fraction of 689 animals shot between May 2002 and February 2003, we collected their stomachs for the examination of content and Cs-activity concentration. Wild boar meat contamination followed a seasonal curve with maximum proportions exceeding accepted levels in the summer (21–26%) and minimum levels in winter (1–9.3%) indicating a higher consumption of a contaminating source during the vegetation period. The autumn decline is obviously attributed to the extensive consumption of low-contaminated beech nuts. An exact analysis of food composition in 18 stomachs with maximum Cs-activity concentrations [345–1,749 Bq/kg (fresh matter: fm)] and 18 with low Cs-activity concentrations (20–199 Bq/kg) was carried out in the summer of 2002. Deer truffles (Elaphomyces granulatus) were found in significantly higher proportions in stomachs with maximum contamination levels than in stomachs with lowcontamination levels. This fungus was found in the Palatinate Forest, by a trained dog, in average densities of 1 truffel/20 m² primarily in spruce stands, showing an average Cs-concentration of 6,030 Bq/kg (fm). On the basis of our findings we stress the hypothesis that deer truffles function as a main Cs-source for the wild boar in Rhineland-Palatinate.     

Day-to-day and seasonal fluctuations of urban mortality in Houston,Texas

Mortality, exclusive of that caused by accidents, for Houston, Texas, from 1971 to 1973 was studied for temporal patterns and for associations with daily maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, and precipitation. The sensitive and unbiased method of spectral analysis permitted the consideration of time lags between events. The findings revealed significant seasonal difference in mortality with the highest being in winter and more interestingly, strong lagged associations were found between short-term upswings in mortality and specific weather conditions, such as those characterized by low air temperature and high barometric pressure. In combination these weather features are typical of winter anticyclones. The peaks in mortality were evident after cold spells within periods of two weeks. Furthermore, episodes of elevated mortality also were observed subsequent to heat waves such as those during the summer of 1971.     

Seasonal variation of microhabitat distribution of the polymorphic land snail Cepaea nemoralis

We studied the seasonal variation of microhabitat distribution of the land snail Cepaea nemoralis over a 3-year period in a population at Dansville, New York. Stratified random quadrat sampling was used to determine snail densities and environmental variables in each month. The plant cover of each quadrat was estimated by a modified Daubenmire measure. Canonical correlation analysis was used to investigate the relationship between the morph density and the environmental variables. Significant relations existed between snail morphs and environmental variables in 8 of the 13 months analyzed. Temperature and rainfall are two important factors affecting such relations. In hot and dry summer months, morphs had a stronger canonical correlation with the environmental variables than in cool and wet months. Food and shelter were important in determining distribution over habitats of the snail. Food was primarily responsible for snail distribution over habitats in the early summer. As the weather became hot and dry, the importance of shelter became more evident. Both banded and unbanded morphs tended to be associated strongly with sheltered microhabitats in hot dry seasons.     

Effects of simulated heat waves on an experimental community of pepper plants,green peach aphids and two parasitoid species

Heat waves – extended periods of abnormally hot weather – are predicted to increase in severity and frequency under climate change. The severity of heat waves should impact communities and food webs through effects on performance of individual species and through changes in the strength of interactions between them. This study tested the effects of severity of simulated heat waves, with daily maxima of either 32°C or 40°C, on a tritrophic food web consisting of plants, Capsicum anuum, aphids, Myzus persicae and two parasitoids, Aphidius matricariae and Aphelinus abdominalis. Osmolarity of plant sap (concentration of dissolved solids) was highest under 40°C heat waves, suggesting the presence of secondary plant compounds involved with stress responses. Population growth of aphids was lower under heat waves (both 32°C and 40°C daily maxima), compared to environments with periodic hot days. Development time of parasitoids was longer under heat waves. Heat waves decreased the proportion of winged aphids in the population. When both parasitoid species were present, impacts on aphid populations were greater in heat wave environments than environments with periodic hot days. When either parasitoid species was by itself, heat waves did not affect the interaction between parasitoids and aphids. Numbers of A. matricariae were reduced in heat wave environments, whereas numbers of A. abdominalis were not. In addition to direct effects on individual species, we also obtained indirect evidence for the effects of heat waves on the bottom–up effects of plant stress compounds on herbivore performance, and on the strength of inter and intra‐specific competition. Our results demonstrate that heat waves could have important effects on community structure, and on important, community‐level processes such as intra‐guild interactions and trophic cascades.     

Heat-stress-related mortality in five cities in Southern Ontario: 1980–1996

The Toronto–Windsor corridor of Southern Ontario, Canada, experiences hot and humid weather conditions in summer, thus exposing the population to heat stress and a greater risk of mortality. In the event of a climate change, heat-stress conditions may become more frequent and severe in Southern Ontario. To assess the impact of summer weather on health, we analyzed heat-related mortality in the elderly (older than 64 years) in the metropolitan areas of Windsor, London, Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge, Hamilton, and Toronto for a 17-year period. Demographic, socioeconomic, and housing factors were also evaluated to assess their effect on the potential of the population to adapt and their vulnerability to heat stress. Heat-stress days were defined as those with an apparent temperature (heat index) above 32°C. Mortality among the elderly was significantly higher on heat-stress days than on non-heat-stress days in all cities except Windsor. The strongest relationships occurred in Toronto and London, followed by Hamilton. Cities with the greatest heat-related mortality have relatively high levels of urbanization and high costs of living. Even without the warming induced by a climate change, (1) vulnerability is likely to increase as the population ages, and (2) ongoing urban development and sprawl are expected to intensify heat-stress conditions in Southern Ontario. Actions should be taken to reduce vulnerability to heat stress conditions, and to develop a comprehensive hot weather watch/warning system for the region. Received: 9 August 1999 / Revised: 9 March 2000 / Accepted: 1 May 2000     

Seasonal and diel activity of Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae) subpopulations in Denmark. Aspects of size, physiological age, and malate dehydrogenase genotype in a forest site without any undergrowth

The underlying population dynamics and the behavioural patterns of the vectors are key issues in understanding the transmission of vector borne pathogens. For the tick Ixodes ricinus both seasonal and diel activity have been described as bimodal patterns, which in seasonal aspect has been interpreted as representing two cohorts. However, recent studies have shown that this interpretation may be incorrect. The aim of this study was to obtain more detailed information on nymph host seeking by studying subpopulations of ticks during the day and season. The study was designed to allow for comparisons of the diel variation and seasonal variation in their dependency in a number of tick characteristics. The study took place in a forest with planted beech trees without any undergrowth. Ticks were collected by flagging the dead leaves on the forest floor. For each nymph, a number of visual observations were made. The size and physiological age was observed and the nymphs were genotyped in the malate dehydrogenase locus (MDH, E.C. 1.1.1.37). Briefly the main results can be given as: (i) There were significant differences in the composition of size classes during the season, but only limited trends in time. (ii) The proportion of the small nymphs was highly variable, with a variation from 3% to 24% in October and September, respectively. (iii) The diel variation in MDH genotypes was significant in May and August. (iv) Nymph size classes and physiological age appeared to interact. The non-random interaction was caused by a relatively even distribution of small nymphs in all four age classes, while large nymphs tended to fall into age class 2 and 3. The length by age interaction for the individual months was noted to be significant in May, July, August and September, but not in June. Similarly the interaction was significant in the morning and afternoon, but not at midday. The overall results describe the seasonal and diel activity patterns as changing systematically for several characteristics under the influence of weather condition and population dynamics. In conclusion: The observations are best interpreted as being produced of a single cohort of ticks, but the revealed complexity of the host seeking activity suggest that measures of activity × abundance should be interpreted very cautiously in relation to population dynamics. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

落叶松人工林土壤热传导季节变化及其与环境因子的关系

以2003—2005年落叶松人工林土壤热状况的实际监测数据为基础,研究了其土壤热传导特性及其与环境因子的关系.结果表明：落叶松人工林不同年份、不同地点土壤热通量的季节变化十分明显,4—8月为正值,9月至次年3月的绝大部分时间为负值,其年收支基本处于平衡状态.土壤热通量和土壤热导率（k）受净辐射影响显著,并存在时间延迟效应,冬季为4～5 h,夏季为2～3 h.基于实测的土壤热通量和土壤温度差计算得到的k值早春季节显著高于其他季节（P<0.05）,而其他月份不存在显著差异(P>0.05).使用我国大多数气象观测站积累的土壤温差数据和 k值进行土壤热通量季节变化估计时,早春季节（3—5月）可能会产生较大的误差.     

Deaths from heat-stroke in Japan: 1968–1994

Global warming is increasingly recognized as a threat to the survival of human beings, because it could cause a serious increase in the occurrence of diseases due to environmental heat during intermittent hot weather. To assess the direct impact of extremely hot weather on human health, we investigated heat-related deaths in Japan from 1968 through 1994, analyzing the data to determine the distribution of the deaths by age and their correlation to the incidence of hot days in summer. Vital Statistics of Japan, published by the Ministry of Health and Welfare of Japan, was the source of the heat-related mortality data employed in this study. Meteorological data were obtained from the District Meteorological Observatories in Tokyo and Osaka, the two largest cities in Japan. Heat-related deaths were most prone to occur on days with a peak daily temperature above 38°C, and the incidence of these deaths showed an exponential dependence on the number of hot days. Thus, even a small rise in atmospheric temperature may lead to a considerable increase in heat-related mortality, indicating the importance of combating global warming. Furthermore, half (50.1%) of the above-noted deaths occurred in children (4 years and under) and the elderly (70 years and over) irrespective of gender, indicating the vulnerability of these specific age groups to heat. Since a warmer climate is predicted in the future, the incidence of heat waves will increase, and more comprehensive measures, both medical and social, should be adopted for children of 4 years and younger the elderly to prevent heat-related deaths in these age groups. Received: 20 January 1999 / Accepted: 15 June 1999     

Physiological performance of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) at its southeastern distribution limit in Europe: seasonal changes in nitrogen, carbon and water balance

To assess the physiological performance of drought-sensitive European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.) under the dry Mediterranean climate prevailing at its southeastern distribution limit in Europe, we analyzed seasonal changes in carbon, nitrogen and water balance of naturally grown adult trees. We determined the foliar C and N contents, delta13C and delta18O signatures, total soluble non-protein nitrogen compounds (TSNN) in xylem, leaves, and phloem, as well as leaf water potential and photosynthetic quantum yield in northern Greece during 2003. Tissue sampling was performed in May, July, and September, while field measurements were conducted regularly. Climatic conditions for the 2003 growing season fall within the typical range of the studied area. The N- and C-related parameters displayed distinct seasonal courses. TSNN was highest in May in all tissues, and asparagine (Asn) was then the most abundant compound. Thereafter, TSNN decreased significantly in all tissues and both its concentration and composition remained constant in July and September. In both months, glutamate (Glu) prevailed in leaves, gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) in phloem exudates from twigs and trunks, and arginine (Arg) in the xylem sap, where loading with amino acids was rather low during that period, amounting to only 0.8 micromol N ml-1 in September. Highest total foliar N and C contents were detected in May, and the elevated abundance of nutrients as well as an increased foliar delta13C signature at the beginning of the growing season is attributed to remobilization processes. The signatures of delta18O, quantum yield and leaf water potentials varied only slightly throughout the growing season. Although summer precipitation at the study site was considerably lower compared to what is usual for typical central European beech forests, no intensive drought responses of the physiological apparatus were detected in the studied beech trees. This suggests efficient internal regulation mechanisms, constantly ensuring a favourable physiological status under the relatively dry Mediterranean climate.     

Species-specific changes in the phenology and peak abundance of freshwater copepods in response to warm summers

SUMMARY 1. Climate warming is now widely recognised as a major factor influencing ecological processes in terrestrial, marine and freshwater habitats. Here, we investigated how a recent period of warm springs and summers has affected the population dynamics of various cyclopoid copepods in a central European lake. We compared (i) the duration of the period when the species were present in the water column, and (ii) their annual peak density in a period dominated by cool summers (1980–91) and one dominated by warm summers (1992–99). 2. The copepods under investigation were (i) Thermocyclops oithonoides, (ii) Mesocyclops leuckarti and (iii) Acanthocyclops robustus. These species differ in their thermal demand and seasonal phenology. Therefore, we hypothesised that enhanced summer warming would produce species‐specific responses. 3. The active phase of the copepods was usually prolonged both in spring and autumn. The earlier emergence of T. oithonoides (May in the warm years, July in the cool years) was probably related to high water temperature in late spring. The later onset of winter diapause in all species may have been coupled to raised temperature in late summer and autumn. 4. The annual peak abundance of the two thermophiles M. leuckarti and T. oithonoides increased significantly in the warm period. In the latter case, the increase was probably because of the early start to population growth. In contrast, M. leuckarti probably responded primarily to mid‐summer heat waves, in that its development time was likely to be short. We speculate that the increase in population size of both species resulted from the development of an additional generation (three instead of two cohorts per year). In contrast to these thermophiles, the coexisting A. robustus, which is adapted to a broader temperature range, did not respond noticeably to the warming trend. 5. In general, the nature of these responses to summer warming varied substantially among species, and depended on the detailed seasonal patterning of the warming. Our findings thus support the hypotheses that single species are sensitive indicators of climate change, and that the seasonal timing of warming is crucial in the context of climate–ecosystem relationships. 6. Moreover, our results add to the body of evidence that climate warming produces shifts in the seasonal phenology of aquatic and terrestrial organisms.     

Impact of 2003 heat waves on aerobiological indices of allergenic herbaceous family pollen season in Tuscany (Italy)

The aim of this study was to assess the current aerobiological situation and to investigate the influence of the hot and dry summer 2003 on pollen season (onset, end and duration of the pollen season, peak pollen day and value, total seasonal amount of pollen grains) of herbaceous family as Poaceae, Urticaceae and Compositeae. Heat wave of 2003 influenced the phenology of the main pollen families in Tuscany: the high temperatures occurred during 2003 affected pollen season of different family with different responses. This study confirms the role that the climate has on the flora species and in particular on herbaceous species phenology and the high variability of the pollination among different places, during extreme events. In general, high spring temperature induces an advance of the flowering period and a release of higher pollen quantity of Urticaceae and Poaceae; however, exceptional weather conditions (i.e., summer 2003) could exert an opposite effect, resulting in an impairment of flowering of Urticaceae during autumn. Compositeae species produced a low amount of pollen in 2003, even if the peak value was higher than the average in some stations.     

Seasonal changes and population dynamics of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi after its first year of invasion in the Kiel Fjord, Western Baltic Sea

We analyzed the seasonal variations of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi weekly collected since its first record in the western Baltic Sea in October 2006. The distribution pattern together with the seasonal dynamics and population outbreaks in late summer 2007 indicate recent successfully establishment of M. leidyi in this area. Seasonal changes showed two periods of high reproductive activity characterized by a population structure dominated by small size classes, followed by an increase of larger ones. These results further revealed that the bulk of the population remains in deep layers during the periods of low population density, whereas it appeared situated in upper layers during the proliferation of the species. We further emphasized the strength of the population outbreaks, which can reach abundances >10-fold higher in time periods shorter than a week. The predatory impact this species may have in pelagic ecosystems warns on the importance of its recent range of expansion.