Implications of CO2 fertilization for future climate change in a coupled climate–carbon model

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in determining levels of atmospheric CO₂ that result from anthropogenic carbon emissions. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ is thought to stimulate terrestrial carbon uptake, through the process of CO₂ fertilization of vegetation productivity. This negative carbon cycle feedback results in reduced atmospheric CO₂ growth, and has likely accounted for a substantial portion of the historical terrestrial carbon sink. However, the future strength of CO₂ fertilization in response to continued carbon emissions and atmospheric CO₂ rise is highly uncertain. In this paper, the ramifications of CO₂ fertilization in simulations of future climate change are explored, using an intermediate complexity coupled climate–carbon model. It is shown that the absence of future CO₂ fertilization results in substantially higher future CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, as this removes the dominant contributor to future terrestrial carbon uptake in the model. As a result, climate changes are larger, though the radiative effect of higher CO₂ on surface temperatures in the model is offset by about 30% due to reduced positive dynamic vegetation feedbacks; that is, the removal of CO₂ fertilization results in less vegetation expansion in the model, which would otherwise constitute an important positive surface albedo‐temperature feedback. However, the effect of larger climate changes has other important implications for the carbon cycle – notably to further weaken remaining carbon sinks in the model. As a result, positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks are larger when CO₂ fertilization is absent. This creates an interesting synergism of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, whereby positive (climate–carbon cycle) feedbacks are amplified when a negative (CO₂ fertilization) feedback is removed.     

Possible effects of rising C02 on climate

Abstract Two factors will determine the rate at which CO₂ levels in the atmosphere increase in the future: the rate of input to the atmosphere, primarily from fossil fuel burning, and the way in which this CO₂ is partitioned between atmosphere, ocean and biosphere. A brief review is given of the current state of knowledge of these aspects of the CO₂ issue prior to a discussion of the changes in climate that might be expected from increased levels of CO₂, whenever these might occur. The basis of climate modelling upon which our expectations rest is explained, indicating the nature of the uncertainty that currently exists in the model results. While some of the gross features of the likely climatic change seem reasonably well established qualitatively, considerable model development will be needed before reliable information on the likely regional effects is forthcoming. Observations have yet to confirm the occurrence of temperature change attributable to CO₂ increases. Nevertheless, the possibility exists of a change in climate during the coming century that may be substantial relative to past experience. Although direct measures to control CO₂ emissions would certainly be premature, long-term planning of infrastructures, closely tuned to present climatic conditions, should ensure their robustness in the face of the uncertain climatic changes that may lie ahead.     

Modelling the recent historical impacts of atmospheric CO2 and climate change on Mediterranean vegetation

During the past century, annual mean temperature has increased by 0.75°C and precipitation has shown marked variation throughout the Mediterranean basin. These historical climate changes may have had significant, but presently undefined, impacts on the productivity and structure of sclerophyllous shrubland, an important vegetation type in the region. We used a vegetation model for this functional type to examine climate change impacts, and their interaction with the concurrent historical rise in atmospheric CO₂. Using only climate and soil texture as data inputs, model predictions showed good agreement with observations of seasonal and regional variation in leaf and canopy physiology, net primary productivity (NPP), leaf area index (LAI) and soil water. Model simulations for shrubland sites indicated that potential NPP has risen by 25% and LAI by 7% during the past century, although the absolute increase in LAI was small. Sensitivity analysis suggested that the increase in atmospheric CO₂ since 1900 was the primary cause of these changes, and that simulated climate change alone had negative impacts on both NPP and LAI. Effects of rising CO₂ were mediated by significant increases in the efficiency of water‐use in NPP throughout the region, as a consequence of the direct effect of CO₂ on leaf gas exchange. This increase in efficiency compensated for limitation of NPP by drought, except in areas where drought was most severe. However, while water was used more efficiently, total canopy water loss rose slightly or remained unaffected in model simulations, because increases in LAI with CO₂ counteracted the effects of reduced stomatal conductance on transpiration. Model simulations for the Mediterranean region indicate that the recent rise in atmospheric CO₂ may already have had significant impacts on productivity, structure and water relations of sclerophyllous shrub vegetation, which tended to offset the detrimental effects of climate change in the region.     

Elevated CO2 and temperature alter nitrogen allocation in Douglas-fir

The effects of elevated CO₂ and temperature on principal carbon constituents (PCC) and C and N allocation between needle, woody (stem and branches) and root tissue of Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. Franco seedlings were determined. The seedlings were grown in sun‐lit controlled‐environment chambers that contained a native soil. Chambers were controlled to reproduce ambient or ambient +180 ppm CO₂ and either ambient temperature or ambient +3.5 °C for 4 years. There were no significant CO₂ × temperature interactions; consequently the data are presented for the CO₂ and temperature effects. At the final harvest, elevated CO₂ decreased the nonpolar fraction of the PCC and increased the polar fraction and amount of sugars in the needles. In contrast, elevated temperature increased the nonpolar fraction of the PCC and decreased sugars in needles. There were no CO₂ or temperature effects on the PCC fractions in the woody tissue or root tissue. Elevated CO₂ and temperature had no significant effects on the C content of any of the plant tissues or fractions. In contrast, the foliar N content declined under elevated CO₂ and increased under elevated temperature; there were no significant effects in other tissues. The changes in the foliar N concentrations were in the cellulose and lignin fractions, the fractions, which contain protein, and are the consequences of changes in N allocation under the treatments. These results indicate reallocation of N among plant organs to optimize C assimilation, which is mediated via changes in the selectivity of Rubisco and carbohydrate modulation of gene expression.     

Sensitivity of a dynamic global vegetation model to climate and atmospheric CO2

The equilibrium carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere has been investigated by running the Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to equilibrium for a range of CO₂ concentrations and idealized climate states. Local climate is defined by the combination of an observation-based climatology and perturbation patterns derived from a 4 × CO₂ warming simulations, which are linearly scaled to global mean temperature deviations, Δ T _glob. Global carbon storage remains close to its optimum for Δ T _glob in the range of ±3°C in simulations with constant atmospheric CO₂. The magnitude of the carbon loss to the atmosphere per unit change in global average surface temperature shows a pronounced nonlinear threshold behavior. About twice as much carbon is lost per degree warming for Δ T _glob above 3°C than for present climate. Tropical, temperate, and boreal trees spread poleward with global warming. Vegetation dynamics govern the distribution of soil carbon storage and turnover in the climate space. For cold climate conditions, the global average decomposition rate of litter and soil decreases with warming, despite local increases in turnover rates. This result is not compatible with the assumption, commonly made in global box models, that soil turnover increases exponentially with global average surface temperature, over a wide temperature range.     

Estimation of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect using growth rate anomalies of CO2 and crop yields since 1961

The effect of elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) on crop yields is one of the most uncertain and influential parameters in models used to assess climate change impacts and adaptations. A primary reason for this uncertainty is the limited availability of experimental data on CO₂ responses for crops grown under typical field conditions. However, because of historical variations in CO₂, each year farmers throughout the world perform uncontrolled yield ‘experiments’ under different levels of CO₂. In this study, measurements of atmospheric CO₂ growth rates and crop yields for individual countries since 1961 were compared to empirically determine the average effect of a 1 ppm increase of CO₂ on yields of rice, wheat, and maize. Because the gradual increase in CO₂ is highly correlated with major changes in technology, management, and other yield controlling factors, we focused on first differences of CO₂ and yield time series. Estimates of CO₂ responses obtained from this approach were highly uncertain, reflecting the relatively small importance of year‐to‐year CO₂ changes for yield variability. Combining estimates from the top 20 countries for each crop resulted in estimates with substantially less uncertainty than from any individual country. The results indicate that while current datasets cannot reliably constrain estimates beyond previous experimental studies, an empirical approach supported by large amounts of data may provide a potentially valuable and independent assessment of this critical model parameter. For example, analysis of reliable yield records from hundreds of individual, independent locations (as opposed to national scale yield records with poorly defined errors) may result in empirical estimates with useful levels of uncertainty to complement estimates from experimental studies.     

Soil CO2 efflux in a boreal pine forest under atmospheric CO2 enrichment and air warming

The response of forest soil CO₂ efflux to the elevation of two climatic factors, the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ (↑CO₂ of 700 μmol mol⁻¹) and air temperature (↑ T with average annual increase of 5°C), and their combination (↑CO₂+↑ T ) was investigated in a 4-year, full-factorial field experiment consisting of closed chambers built around 20-year-old Scots pines ( Pinus sylvestris L.) in the boreal zone of Finland. Mean soil CO₂ efflux in May–October increased with elevated CO₂ by 23–37%, with elevated temperature by 27–43%, and with the combined treatment by 35–59%. Temperature elevation was a significant factor in the combined 4-year efflux data, whereas the effect of elevated CO₂ was not as evident. Elevated temperature had the most pronounced impact early and late in the season, while the influence of elevated CO₂ alone was especially notable late in the season. Needle area was found to be a significant predictor of soil CO₂ efflux, particularly in August, a month of high root growth, thus supporting the assumption of a close link between whole-tree physiology and soil CO₂ emissions. The decrease in the temperature sensitivity of soil CO₂ efflux observed in the elevated temperature treatments in the second year nevertheless suggests the existence of soil response mechanisms that may be independent of the assimilating component of the forest ecosystem. In conclusion, elevated atmospheric CO₂ and air temperature consistently increased forest soil CO₂ efflux over the 4-year period, their combined effect being additive, with no apparent interaction.     

The impact of elevated CO2 on yield loss from a C3 and C4 weed in field-grown soybean

Soybean (Glycine max) was grown at ambient and enhanced carbon dioxide (CO₂, + 250 μL L^?1 above ambient) with and without the presence of a C3 weed (lambsquarters, Chenopodium album L.) and a C4 weed (redroot pigweed, Amaranthus retroflexus L.), in order to evaluate the impact of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO₂] on crop production losses due to weeds. Weeds of a given species were sown at a density of two per metre of row. A significant reduction in soybean seed yield was observed with either weed species relative to the weed‐free control at either [CO₂]. However, for lambsquarters the reduction in soybean seed yield relative to the weed‐free condition increased from 28 to 39% as CO₂ increased, with a 65% increase in the average dry weight of lambsquarters at enhanced [CO₂]. Conversely, for pigweed, soybean seed yield losses diminished with increasing [CO₂] from 45 to 30%, with no change in the average dry weight of pigweed. In a weed‐free environment, elevated [CO₂] resulted in a significant increase in vegetative dry weight and seed yield at maturity for soybean (33 and 24%, respectively) compared to the ambient CO₂ condition. Interestingly, the presence of either weed negated the ability of soybean to respond either vegetatively or reproductively to enhanced [CO₂]. Results from this experiment suggest: (i) that rising [CO₂] could alter current yield losses associated with competition from weeds; and (ii) that weed control will be crucial in realizing any potential increase in economic yield of agronomic crops such as soybean as atmospheric [CO₂] increases.     

Monoterpene emission from coniferous trees in response to elevated CO2 concentration and climate warming

It was hypothesized that high CO₂ availability would increase monoterpene emission to the atmosphere. This hypothesis was based on resource allocation theory which predicts increased production of plant secondary compounds when carbon is in excess of that required for growth. Monoterpene emission rates were measured from needles of (a) Ponderosa pine grown at different CO₂ concentrations and soil nitrogen levels, and (b) Douglas fir grown at different CO₂ concentrations. Ponderosa pine grown at 700 μmol mol^–1 CO₂ exhibited increased photosynthetic rates and needle starch to nitrogen (N) ratios when compared to trees grown at 350 μmol mol^–1 CO₂. Nitrogen availability had no consistent effect on photosynthesis. Douglas fir grown at 550 μmol mol^–1 CO₂ exhibited increased photosynthetic rates as compared to growth at 350 μmol mol^–1 CO₂ in old, but not young needles, and there was no influence on the starch/N ratio. In neither species was there a significant effect of elevated growth CO₂ on needle monoterpene concentration or emission rate. The influence of climate warming and leaf area index (LAI) on monoterpene emission were also investigated. Douglas fir grown at elevated CO₂ plus a 4 °C increase in growth temperature exhibited no change in needle monoterpene concentration, despite a predicted 50% increase in emission rate. At elevated CO₂ concentration the LAI increased in Ponderosa pine, but not Douglas fir. The combination of increased LAI and climate warming are predicted to cause an 80% increase in monoterpene emissions from Ponderosa pine forests and a 50% increase in emissions from Douglas fir forests. This study demonstrates that although growth at elevated CO₂ may not affect the rate of monoterpene emission per unit biomass, the effect of elevated CO₂ on LAI, and the effect of climate warming on monoterpene biosynthesis and volatilization, could increase canopy monoterpene emission rate.     

Elevated CO2 concentrations and stomatal density: observations from 17 plant species growing in a CO2 spring in central Italy

Stomatal density (SD) and stomatal conductance ( g _s) can be affected by an increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. This study was conducted on 17 species growing in a naturally enriched CO₂ spring and belonging to three plant communities. Stomatal conductance, stomatal density and stomatal index (SI) of plants from the spring, which were assumed to have been exposed for generations to elevated [CO₂], and of plants of the same species collected in a nearby control site, were compared. Stomatal conductance was significantly lower in most of the species collected in the CO₂ spring and this indicated that CO₂ effects on g _s are not of a transitory nature but persist in the long term and through plant generations. Such a decrease was, however, not associated with changes in the anatomy of leaves: SD was unaffected in the majority of species (the decrease was only significant in three out of the 17 species examined), and also SI values did not vary between the two sites with the exception of two species that showed increased SI in plants grown in the CO₂-enriched area. These results did not support the hypothesis that long-term exposure to elevated [CO₂] may cause adaptive modification in stomatal number and in their distribution.     

Biomass production and species composition change in a tallgrass prairie ecosystem after long-term exposure to elevated atmospheric CO2

To determine the long-term impact of elevated CO₂ on primary production of native tallgrass prairie, we compared the responses of tallgrass prairie at ambient and twice-ambient atmospheric CO₂ levels over an 8-year period. Plots in open-top chambers (4.5 m diameter) were exposed continuously (24 h) to ambient and elevated CO₂ from early April to late October each year. Unchambered plots were monitored also. Above-ground peak biomass was determined by clipping each year in early August, and root growth was estimated by harvesting roots from root ingrowth bags. Plant community composition was censused each year in early June. In the last 2 years of the study, subplots were clipped on 1 June or 1 July, and regrowth was harvested on 1 October. Volumetric soil water content of the 0–100 cm soil layer was determined using neutron scattering, and was generally higher in elevated CO₂ plots than ambient. Peak above-ground biomass was greater on elevated CO₂ plots than ambient CO₂ plots with or without chambers during years with significant plant water stress. Above-ground regrowth biomass was greater under elevated CO₂ than under ambient CO₂ in a year with late-season water stress, but did not differ in a wetter year. Root ingrowth biomass was also greater in elevated CO₂ plots than ambient CO₂ plots when water stress occurred during the growing season. The basal cover and relative amount of warm-season perennial grasses (C4) in the stand changed little during the 8-year period, but basal cover and relative amount of cool-season perennial grasses (C3) in the stand declined in the elevated CO₂ plots and in ambient CO₂ plots with chambers. Forbs (C3) and members of the Cyperaceae (C3) increased in basal cover and relative amount in the stand at elevated compared to ambient CO₂. Greater biomass production under elevated CO₂ in C4-dominated grasslands may lead to a greater carbon sequestration by those ecosystems and reduce peak atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the future.     

The response of soil CO2 flux to changes in atmospheric CO2, nitrogen supply and plant diversity

We measured soil CO₂ flux over 19 sampling periods that spanned two growing seasons in a grassland Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) experiment that factorially manipulated three major anthropogenic global changes: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration, nitrogen (N) supply, and plant species richness. On average, over two growing seasons, elevated atmospheric CO₂ and N fertilization increased soil CO₂ flux by 0.57 µmol m^?2 s^?1 (13% increase) and 0.37 µmol m^?2 s^?1 (8% increase) above average control soil CO₂ flux, respectively. Decreases in planted diversity from 16 to 9, 4 and 1 species decreased soil CO₂ flux by 0.23, 0.41 and 1.09 µmol m^?2 s^?1 (5%, 8% and 21% decreases), respectively. There were no statistically significant pairwise interactions among the three treatments. During 19 sampling periods that spanned two growing seasons, elevated atmospheric CO₂ increased soil CO₂ flux most when soil moisture was low and soils were warm. Effects on soil CO₂ flux due to fertilization with N and decreases in diversity were greatest at the times of the year when soils were warm, although there were no significant correlations between these effects and soil moisture. Of the treatments, only the N and diversity treatments were correlated over time; neither were correlated with the CO₂ effect. Models of soil CO₂ flux will need to incorporate ecosystem CO₂ and N availability, as well as ecosystem plant diversity, and incorporate different environmental factors when determining the magnitude of the CO₂, N and diversity effects on soil CO₂ flux.     

Altered genotypic and phenotypic frequencies of aphid populations under enriched CO2 and O3 atmospheres

Environmental change is anticipated to negatively affect both plant and animal populations. As abiotic factors rapidly change habitat suitability, projections range from altered genetic diversity to wide-spread species loss. Here, we assess the degree to which changes in atmospheric composition associated with environmental change will influence not only the abundance, but also the genotypic/phenotypic diversity, of herbivore populations. Using free-air CO₂ and O₃ enrichment (FACE) technology, we assess numerical responses of pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum) exhibiting a pink–green genetic polymorphism and an environmentally determined wing polyphenism on broad bean plants (Vicia faba) under enriched CO₂ and/or O₃ atmospheres, over multiple generations. We show that these two greenhouse gases alter not only aphid population sizes, but also genotypic and phenotypic frequencies. As the green genotype was positively influenced by elevated CO₂ levels, but the pink genotype was not, genotypic frequencies (pink morph : green morph) ranged from 1 : 1 to 9 : 1. These two genotypes also displayed marked differences in phenotypic frequencies. The pink genotype exhibited higher levels of wing induction under all atmospheric treatments, however, this polyphenism was negatively influenced by elevated O₃ levels. Resultantly, frequencies of winged phenotypes (pink morph : green morph) varied from 10 : 1 to 332 : 1. Thus, atmospheric conditions associated with environmental change may alter not just overall population sizes, but also genotypic and phenotypic frequencies of herbivore populations, thereby influencing community and ecosystem functioning.     

Potential effects of elevated CO2 and changes in temperature on tropical plants

Abstract. Very little attention has been directed at the responses of tropical plants to increases in global atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and the potential climatic changes. The available data, from greenhouse and laboratory studies, indicate that the photosynthesis, growth and water use efficiency of tropical plants can increase at higher CO₂ concentrations. However, under field conditions abiotic (light, water or nutrients) or biotic (competition or herbivory) factors might limit these responses. In general, elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations seem to increase plant tolerance to stress, including low water availability, high or low temperature, and photoinhibition. Thus, some species may be able to extend their ranges into physically less favourable sites, and biological interactions may become relatively more important in determining the distribution and abundance of species. Tropical plants may be more narrowly adapted to prevailing temperature regimes than are temperate plants, so expected changes in temperature might be relatively more important in the tropics. Reduced transpiration due to decreased stomatal conductance could modify the effects of water stress as a cue for vegetative or reproductive phenology of plants of seasonal tropical areas. The available information suggests that changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations could affect processes as varied as plant/herbivore interactions, decomposition and nutrient cycling, local and geographic distributions of species and community types, and ecosystem productivity. However, data on tropical plants are few, and there seem to be no published tropical studies carried out in the field. Immediate steps should be undertaken to reduce our ignorance of this critical area.