The two-locus ancestral graph in a subdivided population: convergence as the number of demes grows in the island model

We study the ancestral recombination graph for a pair of sites in a geographically structured population. In particular, we consider the limiting behavior of the graph, under Wrights island model, as the number of subpopulations, or demes, goes to infinity. After an instantaneous sample-size adjustment, the graph becomes identical to the two-locus graph in an unstructured population, but with a time scale that depends on the migration rate and the deme size. Interestingly, when migration is gametic, this rescaling of time increases the population mutation rate but does not affect the population recombination rate. We compare this to the case of a partially-selfing population, in which both mutation and recombination depend on the selfing rate. Our result for gametic migration holds both for finite-sized demes, and in the limit as the deme size goes to infinity. However, when migration occurs during the diploid phase of the life cycle and demes are finite in size, the population recombination rate does depend on the migration rate, in a way that is reminiscent of partial selfing. Simulations imply that convergence to a rescaled panmictic ancestral recombination graph occurs for any number of sites as the number of demes approaches infinity.Send offprint request to: Sabin LessardS. Lessard was supported by grants from the Natural Sciences and Research Council of Canada, the Fonds Québécois de la Recherche sur la Nature et les Technologies, and the Université de Montréal.J. Wakeley was supported by a Career Award (DEB-0133760) and by a grant (DEB-9815367) from the National Science Foundation.     

The coalescent process in models with selection, recombination and geographic subdivision

A population genetic model with a single locus at which balancing selection acts and many linked loci at which neutral mutations can occur is analysed using the coalescent approach. The model incorporates geographic subdivision with migration, as well as mutation, recombination, and genetic drift of neutral variation. It is found that geographic subdivision can affect genetic variation even with high rates of migration, providing that selection is strong enough to maintain different allele frequencies at the selected locus. Published sequence data from the alcohol dehydrogenase locus of Drosophila melanogaster are found to fit the proposed model slightly better than a similar model without subdivision.     

The number of equilibria in the diallelic Levene model with multiple demes

The Levene model is the simplest mathematical model to describe the evolution of gene frequencies in spatially subdivided populations. It provides insight into how locally varying selection promotes a population’s genetic diversity. Despite its simplicity, interesting problems have remained unsolved even in the diallelic case.In this paper we answer an open problem by establishing that for two alleles at one locus and J demes, up to 2J−1 polymorphic equilibria may coexist. We first present a proof for the case of stable monomorphisms and then show that the result also holds for protected alleles. These findings allow us to prove that any odd number (up to 2J−1) of equilibria is possible, before we extend the proof to even numbers. We conclude with some numerical results and show that for J>2, the proportion of parameter space affording this maximum is extremely small.     

A coalescent model of background selection with recombination,demography and variation in selection coefficients

There is increasing evidence that background selection, the effects of the elimination of recurring deleterious mutations by natural selection on variability at linked sites, may be a major factor shaping genome-wide patterns of genetic diversity. To accurately quantify the importance of background selection, it is vital to have computationally efficient models that include essential biological features. To this end, a structured coalescent procedure is used to construct a model of background selection that takes into account the effects of recombination, recent changes in population size and variation in selection coefficients against deleterious mutations across sites. Furthermore, this model allows a flexible organization of selected and neutral sites in the region concerned, and has the ability to generate sequence variability at both selected and neutral sites, allowing the correlation between these two types of sites to be studied. The accuracy of the model is verified by checking against the results of forward simulations. These simulations also reveal several patterns of diversity that are in qualitative agreement with observations reported in recent studies of DNA sequence polymorphisms. These results suggest that the model should be useful for data analysis.     

Ancestral processes in population genetics-the coalescent

A special stochastic process, called the coalescent, is of fundamental interest in population genetics. For a large class of population models this process is the appropriate tool to analyse the ancestral structure of a sample of n individuals or genes, if the total number of individuals in the population is sufficiently large. A corresponding convergence theorem was first proved by Kingman in 1982 for the Wright-Fisher model and the Moran model. Generalizations to a large class of exchangeable population models and to models with overlying mutation processes followed shortly later. One speaks of the "robustness of the coalescent, as this process appears in many models as the total population size tends to infinity. This publication can be considered as an introduction to the theory of the coalescent as well as a review of the most important "convergence-to-the-coalescent-theorems. Convergence theorems are not only presented for the classical exchangeable haploid case but also for larger classes of population models, for example for diploid, two-sex or non-exchangeable models. A review-like summary of further examples and applications of convergence to the coalescent is given including the most important biological forces like mutation, recombination and selection. The general coalescent process allows for simultaneous multiple mergers of ancestral lines.     

Pairwise differences under a general model of population subdivision

A number of different migration and isolation models of population subdivision have been studied. In this paper I analyse a general model of two populations derived from a common ancestral population at some time in the past. The two populations may exchange migrants, but they may also be completely isolated from each other. I derive the expectation and variance of the number of differences between two sequences sampled from the two populations. These are then compared to the corresponding results from two other much-used models: equilibrium migration and complete isolation.     

The effects of rate variation on ancestral inference in the coalescent

We describe a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach for assessing the role of site-to-site rate variation in the analysis of within-population samples of DNA sequences using the coalescent. Our framework is a Bayesian one. We discuss methods for assessing the goodness-of-fit of these models, as well as problems concerning the separate estimation of effective population size and mutation rate. Using a mitochondrial data set for illustration, we show that ancestral inference concerning coalescence times can be dramatically affected if rate variation is ignored.     

The effect of genetic incompatibility of demes on total population development

The change of absolute deme frequencies in a discrete-time model of multiple, mutually genetically incompatible subpopulations (demes) which are still in mating contact has been studied. The attempt was made to answer the question of which initial conditions concerning deme frequencies lead to extinction or survival of certain demes. A complete answer could be given for the density-independent model and, with some restrictions, for a particular kind of density-dependent model assuming essentially complete niche overlap. For a more general model of density dependence, necessary initial conditions for deme extinction have been derived. Some implications for pest control have been briefly outlined.     

Genetic variation and population subdivision of the endangered Iberian cyprinid Chondrostoma lusitanicum

Products of 24 presumptive enzyme loci were used to analyse the consequences on genetic structure and variation of the Chondrostoma lusitanicum population decline within the Tejo basin. This rare cyprinid is endemic to the Iberian Peninsula and has a very restricted distribution. Five samples from the Tejo catchment were compared with a sample from a small basin, the Samarra, that has not suffered obvious anthropogenic pressures and where the fish is still abundant. Heterozygosity and polymorphism were higher overall in the Samarra. Several lines of evidence indicate a high degree of population subdivision within the Tejo basin. In fact, about half of the total gene diversity detected in the Tejo population was due to differences among samples. This differentiation appeared to be caused by genetic drift and possibly differential local selection, coupled with reduced gene flow among localities. The accelerated process of habitat degradation occurring in the lowland streams of the Tejo basin will lead to the inevitable reduction of intraspecies genetic diversity.     

The coalescent and the genealogical process in geographically structured population

We shall extend Kingman's coalescent to the geographically structured population model with migration among colonies. It is described by a continuous-time Markov chain, which is proved to be a dual process of the diffusion process of stepping-stone model. We shall derive a system of equations for the spatial distribution of a common ancestor of sampled genes from colonies and the mean time to getting to one common ancestor. These equations are solved in three particular models; a two-population model, the island model and the one-dimensional stepping-stone model with symmetric nearest-neighbour migration.     

Quantitative genetic variation in an island population of the speckled wood butterfly (Pararge aegeria)

Evidence of changes in levels of genetic variation in the field is scarce. Theoretically, selection and a bottleneck may lead to the depletion of additive genetic variance (V(A)) but not of nonadditive, dominance variance (V(D)), although a bottleneck may converse V(D) to V(A). Here we analyse quantitative genetic variation for the Speckled Wood butterfly Pararge aegeria on the island of Madeira about 120 generations after first colonisation. Colonisation of the island involved both a bottleneck and strong natural selection, changing the average value of traits. Several life history and morphological traits with varying levels of change since colonisation were analysed. In accordance with expectations, all traits except one showed relatively low levels of V(A), with an average heritability (h(2)) of 0.078. Levels of V(D) for these traits were relatively high, 20-94% of total variance and on average 80% of V(G). The exception was a morphological trait that probably had not experienced strong natural selection after colonisation, for which a h(2) of 0.27 was found. Another interesting observation is that the population seems resistant to inbreeding effects, which may be the result of purging of deleterious alleles.     

The coalescent in a continuous,finite, linear population

In this article we present a model for analyzing patterns of genetic diversity in a continuous, finite, linear habitat with restricted gene flow. The distribution of coalescent times and locations is derived for a pair of sequences sampled from arbitrary locations along the habitat. The results for mean time to coalescence are compared to simulated data. As expected, mean time to common ancestry increases with the distance separating the two sequences. Additionally, this mean time is greater near the center of the habitat than near the ends. In the distant past, lineages that have not undergone coalescence are more likely to have been at opposite ends of the population range, whereas coalescent events in the distant past are biased toward the center. All of these effects are more pronounced when gene flow is more limited. The pattern of pairwise nucleotide differences predicted by the model is compared to data collected from sardine populations. The sardine data are used to illustrate how demographic parameters can be estimated using the model.     

The island model with stochastic migration

The island model with stochastically variable migration rate and immigrant gene frequency is investigated. It is supposed that the migration rate and the immigrant gene frequency are independent of each other in each generation, and each of them is independently and identically distributed in every generation. The treatment is confined to a single diallelic locus without mutation. If the diploid population is infinite, selection is absent and the immigrant gene frequency is fixed, then the gene frequency on the island converges to the immigrant frequency, and the logarithm of the absolute value of its deviation from it is asymptotically normally distributed. Assuming only neutrality, the evolution of the exact mean and variance of the gene frequency are derived for an island with finite population. Selection is included in the diffusion approximation: if all evolutionary forces have comparable roles, the gene frequency will be normally distributed at all times. All results in the paper are completely explicit.     

Multilocus models in the infinite island model of population structure

Different methods have been developed to consider the effects of statistical associations among genes that arise in population genetics models: kin selection models deal with associations among genes present in different interacting individuals, while multilocus models deal with associations among genes at different loci. It was pointed out recently that these two types of models are very similar in essence. In this paper, we present a method to construct multilocus models in the infinite island model of population structure (where deme size may be arbitrarily small). This method allows one to compute recursions on allele frequencies, and different types of genetic associations (including associations between different individuals from the same deme), and incorporates selection. Recursions can be simplified using quasi-equilibrium approximations; however, we show that quasi-equilibrium calculations for associations that are different from zero under neutrality must include a term that has not been previously considered. The method is illustrated using simple examples.     

Heterogeneity in genetic diversity among non-coding loci fails to fit neutral coalescent models of population history

Inferring aspects of the population histories of species using coalescent analyses of non-coding nuclear DNA has grown in popularity. These inferences, such as divergence, gene flow, and changes in population size, assume that genetic data reflect simple population histories and neutral evolutionary processes. However, violating model assumptions can result in a poor fit between empirical data and the models. We sampled 22 nuclear intron sequences from at least 19 different chromosomes (a genomic transect) to test for deviations from selective neutrality in the gadwall (Anas strepera), a Holarctic duck. Nucleotide diversity among these loci varied by nearly two orders of magnitude (from 0.0004 to 0.029), and this heterogeneity could not be explained by differences in substitution rates alone. Using two different coalescent methods to infer models of population history and then simulating neutral genetic diversity under these models, we found that the observed among-locus heterogeneity in nucleotide diversity was significantly higher than expected for these simple models. Defining more complex models of population history demonstrated that a pre-divergence bottleneck was also unlikely to explain this heterogeneity. However, both selection and interspecific hybridization could account for the heterogeneity observed among loci. Regardless of the cause of the deviation, our results illustrate that violating key assumptions of coalescent models can mislead inferences of population history.     

Vagility in an island population of the House mouse

The chance of encounter—and hence mating—between two animals may be limited by social as well as spatial factors, thus dividing a population into a series of discrete territories with little movement between them. Only within the sub-units will random mating take place, and drift may cause a considerable amount of non-adaptive genetical change if the units are very small. Work on House mouse ( Mus musculus ) populations in the laboratory and particular ecological situations have suggested that the effective breeding size of these units may be as small as four. This would mean that a considerable amount of random change would be expected in mouse populations. However, a six year study (1964–69) of movement and territoriality on the 244 acre (100 ha) Welsh island of Skokholm during which over 3000 animals were marked and released, showed that more than 20% of individuals breed in an area other than the one in which they were born, i.e. a considerable amount of population churning takes place. This conclusion is supported by evidence of the spread of three rare biochemical variants in the population. Chance seems to play little part in the determination of the genetical constitution of the Skokholm mice. In general, estimates of the size of effective breeding units must always be qualified by an understanding of the ecology of the population in question.     

A coalescent model of recombination hotspots

Recent experimental findings suggest that the assumption of a homogeneous recombination rate along the human genome is too naive. These findings point to block-structured recombination rates; certain regions (called hotspots) are more prone than other regions to recombination. In this report a coalescent model incorporating hotspot or block-structured recombination is developed and investigated analytically as well as by simulation. Our main results can be summarized as follows: (1) The expected number of recombination events is much lower in a model with pure hotspot recombination than in a model with pure homogeneous recombination, (2) hotspots give rise to large variation in recombination rates along the genome as well as in the number of historical recombination events, and (3) the size of a (nonrecombining) block in the hotspot model is likely to be overestimated grossly when estimated from SNP data. The results are discussed with reference to the current debate about block-structured recombination and, in addition, the results are compared to genome-wide variation in recombination rates. A number of new analytical results about the model are derived.     

Sequential Markov coalescent algorithms for population models with demographic structure

We analyse sequential Markov coalescent algorithms for populations with demographic structure: for a bottleneck model, a population-divergence model, and for a two-island model with migration. The sequential Markov coalescent method is an approximation to the coalescent suggested by McVean and Cardin, and by Marjoram and Wall. Within this algorithm we compute, for two individuals randomly sampled from the population, the correlation between times to the most recent common ancestor and the linkage probability corresponding to two different loci with recombination rate R between them. These quantities characterise the linkage between the two loci in question. We find that the sequential Markov coalescent method approximates the coalescent well in general in models with demographic structure. An exception is the case where individuals are sampled from populations separated by reduced gene flow. In this situation, the correlations may be significantly underestimated. We explain why this is the case.     

A coalescent dual process in a Moran model with genic selection, and the lambda coalescent limit

The genealogical structure of neutral populations in which reproductive success is highly-skewed has been the subject of many recent studies. Here we derive a coalescent dual process for a related class of continuous-time Moran models with viability selection. In these models, individuals can give birth to multiple offspring whose survival depends on both the parental genotype and the brood size. This extends the dual process construction for a multi-type Moran model with genic selection described in Etheridge and Griffiths (2009). We show that in the limit of infinite population size the non-neutral Moran models converge to a Markov jump process which we call the Λ-Fleming-Viot process with viability selection and we derive a coalescent dual for this process directly from the generator and as a limit from the Moran models. The dual is a branching-coalescing process similar to the Ancestral Selection Graph which follows the typed ancestry of genes backwards in time with real and virtual lineages. As an application, the transition functions of the non-neutral Moran and Λ-coalescent models are expressed as mixtures of the transition functions of the dual process.