Spatial dynamics of Microtus vole populations in continuous and fragmented agricultural landscapes

Small mammal populations often exhibit large-scale spatial synchrony, which is purportedly caused by stochastic weather-related environmental perturbations, predation or dispersal. To elucidate the relative synchronizing effects of environmental perturbations from those of dispersal movements of small mammalian prey or their predators, we investigated the spatial dynamics of Microtus vole populations in two differently structured landscapes which experience similar patterns of weather and climatic conditions. Vole and predator abundances were monitored for three years on 28 agricultural field sites arranged into two 120-km-long transect lines in western Finland. Sites on one transect were interconnected by continuous agricultural farmland (continuous landscape), while sites on the other were isolated from one another to a varying degree by mainly forests (fragmented landscape). Vole populations exhibited large-scale (>120 km) spatial synchrony in fluctuations, which did not differ in degree between the landscapes or decline with increasing distance between trapping sites. However, spatial variation in vole population growth rates was higher in the fragmented than in the continuous landscape. Although vole-eating predators were more numerous in the continuous agricultural landscape than in the fragmented, our results suggest that predators do not exert a great influence on the degree of spatial synchrony of vole population fluctuations, but they may contribute to bringing out-of-phase prey patches towards a regional density level. The spatial dynamics of vole populations were similar in both fragmented and continuous landscapes despite inter-landscape differences in both predator abundance and possibilities of vole dispersal. This implies that the primary source of synchronization lies in a common weather-related environment.     

Genetic structuring in fluctuating populations

The effect of genetic drift in spatially distributed dispersal-linked and density-regulated populations is studied in a classical one-locus two-allele system. We analyse emergence of genetic differentiation assuming random drift only, where the noise-like variability is due to demographic stochasticity. We find emergence of clusters of sub-units with local allele fixation and persistence of both alleles in lengthy simulations. We demonstrate that local allele fixation (extending over a number of adjoining spatial sub-units) – without global loss of alleles – may occur when the carrying capacities of local patches are small, under a full range population dynamic regimes, when dispersal rate is small, and when redistribution (through dispersal) does not act as global mixer. These results are novel. The key to the observations is that drift is simultaneously influenced by distance-dependent dispersal, demographic stochasticity and autocorrelated population fluctuations due to delayed-density dependence. These are standard elements of contemporary population models in spatially structured context. With stable large populations, no stochasticity and dispersal limited to neighbours only, our model collapses to the stepping-stone model, while with dispersal being random and global, the model collapses to Wright's island model.     

Spatial dynamics of colony interactions in young populations of the fire ant Solenopsis invicta

Newly founded colonies of the fire ant Solenopsis invicta compete intensely by brood raids, which result in a rapid reduction of colony density. Experimental plantings of colonies and analyses of sequential maps were used to examine the importance of spatial pattern in the dynamics of young populations. Colony positions were initially clumped in naturally founded cohorts, but were regular in most mature populations. Incipient colonies planted in clumped patterns were more likely to engage in brood raids than colonies planted in regular hexagonal patterns at the same average density. However, contrary to what would be expected if local crowding increased mortality, no significant increases in spatial regularity were observed during brood raiding either in the experimentally planted populations or in a natural population of more than 1200 incipient colonies. These results show that it may be difficult to infer the degree of past or current competition by passive analysis of spatial data even when field experiments show that the probability of mortality depends on local spacing.     

The dynamics of health in wild field vole populations: a haematological perspective

1. Pathogens have been proposed as potentially important drivers of population dynamics, but while a few studies have investigated the impact of specific pathogens, the wealth of information provided by general indices of health has hardly been exploited. By evaluating haematological parameters in wild populations, our knowledge of the dynamics of health and infection may be better understood. 2. Here, haematological dynamics in natural populations of field voles are investigated to determine environmental and host factors associated with indicators of inflammatory response (counts of monocytes and neutrophils) and of condition: measures of immunological investment (lymphocyte counts) and aerobic capacity (red blood cell counts). 3. Individuals from three field vole populations were sampled monthly for 2 years. Comparisons with individuals kept under controlled conditions facilitated interpretation of field data. Mixed effects models were developed for each cell type to evaluate separately the effects of various factors on post-juvenile voles and mature breeding females. 4. There were three well-characterized 'physiological' seasons. The immunological investment appeared lowest in winter (lowest lymphocyte counts), but red blood cells were at their highest levels and indices of inflammatory response at their lowest. Spring was characterized by a fall in red blood cell counts and peaks in indicators of inflammatory response. During the course of summer-autumn, red blood cell counts recovered, the immunological investment increased and the indicators of inflammatory response decreased. 5. Poor body condition appeared to affect the inflammatory response (lower neutrophil and monocyte peaks) and the immunological investment (lower lymphocyte counts), providing evidence that the capacity to fight infection is dependent upon host condition. 6. Breeding early in the year was most likely in females in better condition (high lymphocyte and red blood cell counts). 7. All the haematological parameters were affected adversely by high population densities.     

Survival in fluctuating bank vole populations: seasonal and yearly variations

For most organisms, both within‐year (i.e. seasonal) and between‐year variations in demography are important components in shaping the population dynamic patterns observed on a multiannual scale. These two sources of variation have, however, rarely been studied simultaneously. Most of the recent work on small rodent population dynamics, for example, has focused on between‐year variation. Densities of seed‐ and fruit‐eating rodents, such as the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus), are in particular known to have between‐year variation related to seed crop production. Here we report on the analysis of a long‐term (1976–1982) capture‐mark‐recapture (CMR) study of the bank vole in Belgium. The study was done on two grids, an open and a fenced grid. As part of the CMR statistical analysis, we propose a general modelling approach which allows for a detailed understanding of the relative importance of seasonal and between‐year variation in survival. We demonstrate that most of the seasonal variation corresponds to a lower apparent survival in spring compared to the rest of the year. During winter, apparent survival was lower on the open grid than on the fenced grid. Dispersal is therefore concluded to be an important determinant of the seasonal pattern. The between‐year variation in survival is largely attributable to variation in seed crops, and is comparable in magnitude to the seasonal variation.     

Demography of fluctuating vole populations: Phase homogeneity of demographic variables

Most research on fluctuations of arvicoline rodents has focused on changes in demographic variables across phases. Here, we examined whether demographic variables varied within a phase (trough, increase, and decline) across 30 fluctuations of Microtus ochrogaster and 14 fluctuations of Microtus pennsylvanicus over 25 years. For each species, we tested for phase homogeneity (i.e., values of demographic variables were invariant across all fluctuations within a given phase) for the following demographic variables: monthly survival (total, adult, young), proportion of reproductively active adult males and females, proportion of young, and proportion of immigrants. We found phase homogeneity for 96.7% of the 582 phase/fluctutation data sets for the seven variables, in the three phases of across all fluctuations in the three habitats for M. ochrogaster and 98.0% of 254 of those for M. pennsylvanicus in two habitats. We conclude that for each of these two species demographic variables are relatively invariant both within a phase and across fluctuations.     

The impact of diffusion and stirring on the dynamics of interacting populations

We investigate the combined effects of diffusion and stirring on the dynamics of interacting populations which have spatial structure. Specifically we consider the marine phytoplankton and zooplankton populations, and model them as an excitable medium. The results are applicable to other biological and chemical systems. Under certain conditions the combination of diffusion and stirring is found to enhance the excitability, and hence population growth of the system. Diffusion is found to play an important role: too much and initial perturbations are smoothed away, too little and insufficient mixing takes place before the reaction is over. A key time-scale is the mix-down time, the time it takes for the spatial scale of a population to be reduced to that of a diffusively controlled filament. If the mix-down time is short compared to the reaction time-scale, then excitation of the system is suppressed. For intermediate values of the mix-down time the peak population can attain values many times that of a population without spatial structure. We highlight the importance of the spatial scale of the initial disturbance to the system.     

松嫩平原淡黄虻种群日吸血活动的时空动态研究

淡黄虻是松嫩平原虻虫中的优势种.对其吸血活动的观测发现,其种群数量与温度、湿度呈显著相关;吸血高峰时间出现在14:00左右,种群的聚集度和扩散度也在此时达到最大;种群不仅呈聚集分布,而且呈聚集型扩散;种群聚集分布以疏松的小集团形式存在,其个体呈随机分布.     

Modeling spatiotemporal dynamics of vole populations in Europe and America

The mathematical models proposed and studied in the present paper provide a unified framework to understand complex dynamical patterns in vole populations in Europe and North America. We have extended the well-known model provided by Hanski and Turchin by incorporating the diffusion term and spatial heterogeneity and performed several mathematical and numerical analyses to explore the dynamics in space and time of the model. These models successfully predicted the observed rodent dynamics in these regions. An attempt has been made to bridge the gap between the field and theoretical studies carried out by Turchin and Hanski (1997) [23] and Turchin and Ellner (2000) [24]. Simulation experiments, mainly two-dimensional parameter scans, show the importance of spatial heterogeneity in order to understand the poorly understood fluctuations in population densities of voles in Fennoscandia and Northern America. This study shed new light upon the dynamics of voles in these regions. The nonlinear analysis of vole data suggests that the dynamical shift is from stability to chaos. Diffusion driven model systems predict a new type of dynamics not yet observed in the field studies of vole populations carried out so far. This has been termed as chaotic in time and regular in space (CTRS). We observed CTRS dynamics in several simulation experiments. This directs us to expect that dynamics of this animal would be de-correlated in time and simultaneously mass extinctions might be possible at many spatial locations.     

Spatial heterogeneity, social structure and disease dynamics of animal populations

Social groupings, population dynamics and population movements of animals all give rise to spatio-temporal variations in population levels. These variations may be of crucial importance when considering the spread of infectious diseases since infection levels do not increase unless there is a sufficient pool of susceptible individuals. This paper explores the impact of social groupings on the potential for an endemic disease to develop in a spatially explicit model system. Analysis of the model demonstrates that the explicit inclusion of space allows asymmetry between groups to arise when this was not possible in the equivalent spatially homogeneous system. Moreover, differences in movement behaviours for susceptible and infected individuals gives rise to different spatial profiles for the populations. These profiles were not observed in previous work on an epidemic system. The results are discussed in an ecological context with reference to furious and dumb strains of infectious diseases.     

Spatial pattern formation of prey-predator populations

Summary Formation of a non-uniform spatial distribution pattern of prey and predator populations in a heterogeneous environment is mathematically investigated. Both populations are distributed in linearly connected compartments. Furthermore it is assumed that only the predator species (animal) can randomly diffuse across the boundaries but the prey species (plant) are confined in each compartment. When the prey-predator relation is given by a simple Volterra type interaction it is known that the system cannot establish a non-uniform stationary distribution in a homogeneous environment. However, in a heterogeneous environment, it can be analytically shown by constructing a Lyapunov function that the system asymptotically and globally tends to a non-uniform stationary distribution. Thus, the populations are stabilized by the heterogeneity of environment.     

Spatio-temporal patterns of tree community dynamics in a tropical forest fragment in South-east Brazil

The tree community (dbh > 5 cm) of a fragment of tropical montane semi-deciduous forest in South-east Brazil was repeatedly surveyed over a 19-year period in order to assess spatial and temporal patterns of dynamics. The surveys took place in 1987, 1992, 1996, 2001, and 2006 in a grid of 126 20 × 20 m permanent plots covering almost the entire fragment (5.8 ha). Overall patterns indicated that a self-thinning process has taken place in the fragment since 1992. Community dynamics varied in space and time, with most dynamics highly spatially clustered. With exception of mortality rates, there were no changes in the spatial patterns of community dynamics through time. No relation between edges and dynamics variables was found. Most species with increasing density and basal area were shade-bearers, while most decreasing species were canopy light demanders and pioneers.     

松嫩平原淡黄虻群日吸血活动的空动研究

淡黄虻是松嫩平原虻虫中的优势种,对其吸血活动的观测发现,其种群数量与温度,湿度呈显著相关;吸血高峰时间出现在14：00左右,种群的聚集度和扩散度也在此时达到最大,种群不仅呈聚集分布,而且呈聚集型扩散,种群聚集分布以疏松的小集团形式存在,其个体呈随机分布。     

Evolutionary dynamics of competing phenotype-structured populations in periodically fluctuating environments

Journal of Mathematical Biology - Living species, ranging from bacteria to animals, exist in environmental conditions that exhibit spatial and temporal heterogeneity which requires them to adapt....     

Spatial modelling of succession-disturbance dynamics in forest ecosystems: Concepts and examples

Over the last few decades it has become increasingly obvious that disturbance, whether natural or anthropogenic in origin, is ubiquitous in ecosystems. Disturbance-related processes are now considered to be important determinants of the composition, structure and function of ecological systems. However, because disturbance and succession processes occur across a wide range of spatio-temporal scales their empirical investigation is difficult. To counter these difficulties much use has been made of spatial modelling to explore the response of ecological systems to disturbance(s) occurring at spatial scales from the individual to the landscape and above, and temporal scales from minutes to centuries. Here we consider such models by contrasting two alternative motivations for their development and use: prediction and exploration, with a focus on forested ecosystems. We consider the two approaches to be complementary rather than competing. Predictive modelling aims to combine knowledge (understanding and data) with the goal of predicting system dynamics; conversely, exploratory models focus on developing understanding in systems where uncertainty is high. Examples of exploratory modelling include model-based explorations of generic issues of criticality in ecological systems, whereas predictive models tend to be more heavily data-driven (e.g. species distribution models). By considering predictive and exploratory modelling alongside each other, we aim to illustrate the range of methods used to model succession and disturbance dynamics and the challenges involved in the model-building and evaluation processes in this arena.     

Mechanisms of density dependence in fluctuating vole populations: deducing annual density dependence from seasonal processes

Based on recent advances in time-series analyses of ecological dynamics using statistical and mathematical models, we summarise our recent results on the seasonal processes in the annual population dynamics of the grey-sided vole Clethrionomys rufocanus (Sundevall, 1846) in Hokkaido, Japan, and report additional analyses on annual and seasonal density dependence. Annual direct density dependence was strong in almost all populations. In contrast, delayed density dependence was generally weak, although clear delayed density dependence was detected in some of the studied populations. Although seasonal density dependence was observed both in winter and summer, direct density dependence was much more profound during winter; thus, winter density dependence contributed most to the overall annual direct density dependence. We found no correlation between the seasonal components of annual direct density dependence; however, the corresponding seasonal components for annual delayed density dependence were positively correlated. We conclude that winter conditions influence the strength of annual direct density dependence most profoundly. Moreover, we conclude that direct density dependence during summer and winter may be generated by different mechanisms, whereas delayed density dependence seems to be generated by a common mechanism. Candidate mechanisms are discussed in relation to general knowledge of northern rodent populations and to specific insights provided by earlier studies of grey-sided voles in Hokkaido.     

Demography of fluctuating prairie vole populations: comparison of demographic variables among phases of fluctuations

We tested for differences in the proportion of reproductively active males and females, proportion of the population composed of young and immigrants, and monthly survival (total, adult, young) among phases (trough, increase, and decline) and among habitats (alfalfa, bluegrass, and tallgrass) of 30 population fluctuations ofMicrotus ochrogaster Wagner, 1842 over 25 years in east-central Illinois USA. Total population survival and survival of adults and young were greatest during the increase phase, among fluctuations, irrespective of habitat. The proportion of reproductively active adult males and females was lowest during the decline phase, an effect of lower reproduction during the winter. These results suggest that phase-specific changes in survival were the primary demographic factor driving population fluctuations ofM. ochrogaster in our study sites. We conclude that small-scale spatially different population fluctuations may be explained by the same mechanisms that explain fluctuations within a population.     

Dispersal,landscape and travelling waves in cyclic vole populations

Travelling waves (TW) are among the most striking ecological phenomena emerging in oscillating populations. Despite much theory, understanding how real‐world TW arise remains a challenge for ecology. Herein, we analyse 16‐year time series of cyclic vole populations collected at 314 localities covering 2500 km² in France. We found evidence for a linear front TW spreading at a speed of 7.4 km year^?1 along a north‐west/south‐east direction and radiating away from a major landscape discontinuity as predicted by recent theory. The spatial signature of vole dispersal was assessed using genetic data collected at 14 localities. Both data sets were handled using similar autocorrelation approaches. Our results revealed a remarkable congruence of the spatial extent and direction of anisotropy of both demographic and genetic structures. Our results constitute the first empirical evidence that effective dispersal is limited in the direction of TW while most of the individual exchanges occur along the wave front.