Shifting base-lines, declining coral cover, and the erosion of reef resilience: comment on Sweatman et al. (2011)

Formal monitoring of the Great Barrier Reef was initiated in 1986 in response to the clear scientific evidence (and growing public concern) over the loss of corals caused by two protracted outbreaks of crown-of thorns starfish, which began in 1962 and 1979. Using monitoring data from manta tows along and across the Great Barrier Reef, Sweatman et al. (Coral Reefs 30:521–531, 2011) show that coral cover after these outbreaks declined further from 28 to 22% between 1986 and 2004. Pointing to the current levels of protection of the Great Barrier Reef, they state that earlier estimates of losses of coral cover since the early 1960s have been exaggerated. However, the loss of close to one-quarter of the coral cover over the past two decades represents an average loss of 0.34% cover per year across the whole GBR after 1986, which is very similar to previously reported rates of annual loss measured over a longer timeframe. The heaviest recent losses have occurred on inshore and mid-shelf reefs, which Sweatman et al. (Coral Reefs 30:521–531, 2011) attribute to a natural cycle of disturbance and recovery. But there has been very limited recovery. While coral cover has increased for short periods on some individual reefs, it has declined sharply on many more to produce the observed system-wide trend of declining cover. Close to 40% of coral cover on inner reefs has been lost since 1986. Of particular significance is the new evidence that coral cover has remained unchanged or declined further from a low 1986 baseline in 28 out of 29 sub-regions of the Great Barrier Reef, indicating a gradual erosion of resilience that is impeding the capacity of this huge reef system to return towards its earlier condition. This result, and other clear evidence of widespread incremental degradation from overfishing, pollution, and climate change, calls for action rather than complacency or denial.     

Scale-dependent spatial variability of coral assemblages along the Florida Reef Tract

 Coral reef communities of the western Atlantic have changed over the past two to three decades, but the magnitude and causes of this change remain controversial. Part of the problem is that small-scale patterns observed on individual reefs have been erroneously extrapolated to landscape and geographic scales. Understanding how reef coral assemblages vary through space is an essential prerequisite to devising sampling strategies to track the dynamics of coral reefs through time. In this paper we quantify variation in the cover of hard corals in spur-and-groove habitats (13–19 m depth) at spatial scales spanning five orders of magnitude along the Florida Reef Tract. A videographic sampling program was conducted to estimate variances in coral cover at the following hierarchical levels and corresponding spatial scales: (1) among transects within sites (0.01- to 0.1-km scale), (2) among sites within reefs (0.5- to 2-km scale), (3) among reefs within sectors of the reef tract (10- to 20-km scale), and (4) among sectors of the reef tract (50- to 100-km scale). Coral cover displayed low variability among transects within sites and among sites within reefs. This means that transects from a site adequately represented the variability of the spur-and-groove habitat of the reef as a whole. Variability among reefs within sectors was highly significant, compared with marginally significant variability among sectors. Estimates from an individual reef, therefore, did not adequately characterize nearby reefs, nor did those estimates sufficiently represent variability at the scale of the sector. The structure and composition of coral reef communities is probably determined by the interaction of multiple forcing functions operating on a variety of scales. Hierarchical analyses of coral assemblages from other geographic locations have detected high variability at scales different from those in the present study. A multiscale analysis should, therefore, precede any management decisions regarding large reef systems such as the Florida Reef Tract. Accepted: 19 July 1999     

Paris Agreement could prevent regional mass extinctions of coral species

Coral reef ecosystems are expected to undergo significant declines over the coming decades as oceans become warmer and more acidic. We investigate the environmental tolerances of over 650 Scleractinian coral species based on the conditions found within their present-day ranges and in areas where they are currently absent but could potentially reach via larval dispersal. These “environmental envelopes” and connectivity constraints are then used to develop global forecasts for potential coral species richness under two emission scenarios, representing the Paris Agreement target (“SSP1-2.6”) and high levels of emissions (“SSP5-8.5”). Although we do not directly predict coral mortality or adaptation, the projected changes to environmental suitability suggest considerable declines in coral species richness for the majority of the world's tropical coral reefs, with a net loss in average local richness of 73% (Paris Agreement) to 91% (High Emissions) by 2080–2090 and particularly large declines across sites in the Great Barrier Reef, Coral Sea, Western Indian Ocean, and Caribbean. However, at the regional scale, we find that environmental suitability for the majority of coral species can be largely maintained under the Paris Agreement target, with 0%–30% potential net species lost in most regions (increasing to 50% for the Great Barrier Reef) as opposed to 80%–90% losses under High Emissions. Projections for subtropical areas suggest that range expansion will give rise to coral reefs with low species richness (typically 10–20 coral species per region) and will not meaningfully offset declines in the tropics. This work represents the first global projection of coral species richness under oceanic warming and acidification. Our results highlight the critical importance of mitigating climate change to avoid potentially massive extinctions of coral species.     

Drivers of region-wide declines in architectural complexity on Caribbean reefs

Severe declines in the cover of live hard coral on reefs have been reported worldwide, and in the Caribbean region, the architectural complexity of coral reefs has also declined markedly. While the drivers of coral cover loss are relatively well understood, little is known about the drivers of regional-scale declines in architectural complexity. We have used a dataset of 49 time series reporting reef architectural complexity to explore the effect of hurricanes, coral bleaching and fishing on Caribbean-wide annual rates of change in reef complexity. Hurricane impacts greatly influence reef complexity, with the most rapid rates of decline in complexity occurring at sites impacted during their survey period, and with lower rates of loss occurring at unimpacted sites. Reef architectural complexity did not change significantly following mass bleaching events (in a time frame of <5 years) or positive thermal anomalies. Although the rates of change in architectural complexity were similar in and out of marine protected areas (MPAs), significant declines in complexity were observed inside but not outside of MPAs, possibly because reductions in fishing can lead to increased bioerosion by herbivores within MPAs. Our findings suggest that major drivers of coral mortality, such as coral bleaching, do not influence reef architectural complexity in the short term (<5 years). Instead, direct physical impacts and reef bioerosion appear to be important drivers of the widespread loss of architecturally complex reefs in the Caribbean.     

Indicators of UV Exposure in Corals and Their Relevance to Global Climate Change and Coral Bleaching

A compelling aspect of the deterioration of coral reefs is the phenomenon of coral bleaching. Through interactions with other factors such as sedimentation, pollution, and bacterial infection, bleaching can impact large areas of a reef with limited recovery, and it might be induced by a variety of stressors including temperature and salinity extremes, and ultraviolet light. Under conditions of ocean warming, often associated with calm and stratified waters, photobleaching of UV-absorb-ing chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is increased, and penetration of both UV-B and UV-A is greatly enhanced. Indices of UV-specific effects in coral tissue are needed to test whether UV increases, associated with global climate change, are harmful to corals. To address this challenge, we have evaluated UV-specific effects in corals and have characterized factors that alter penetration of UV radiation over coral reefs. An immunoblotting assay was developed to examine UV-specific lesions (thymine dimers) in coral and zooxanthellae DNA. We observed dose-dependent increases of thymine dimers in coral (Porites porites var porites) exposed to artificial solar irradiance in a solar simulator, although effects were not strictly proportional. UV measurements were made in July 1999 at Eastern Sambo reef and nearby sites, including profiling along transects from reef to shore. Results of these analyses indicate that the coral at Eastern Sambo reef (at 3-4 meters) were receiving UV-B radiation that was equivalent to 25 to 30% of surface UV irradiance. However, the water just inside the reef in Hawk Channel (located closer to land) was considerably more opaque to UV. This water photobleached with loss of UV absorbance and fluorescence when it was exposed to simulated solar radiation. These results indicate that photobleaching of the DOM and transport of near-shore water out over the reefs might play a key role in controlling UV penetration to the reef surface.     

Different Surrounding Landscapes may Result in Different Fish Assemblages in East African Seagrass Beds

Few studies have considered how seagrass fish assemblages are influenced by surrounding habitats. This information is needed for a better understanding of the connectivity between tropical coastal ecosystems. To study the effects of surrounding habitats on the composition, diversity and densities of coral reef fish species on seagrass beds, underwater visual census surveys were carried out in two seagrass habitat types at various locations along the coast of Zanzibar (Tanzania) in the western Indian Ocean. Fish assemblages of seagrass beds in a marine embayment with large areas of mangroves (bay seagrasses) situated 9 km away from coral reefs were compared with those of seagrass beds situated on the continental shelf adjacent to coral reefs (reef seagrasses). No differences in total fish density, total species richness or total juvenile fish density and species richness were observed between the two seagrass habitat types. However, at species level, nine species showed significantly higher densities in bay seagrasses, while eight other species showed significantly higher densities in reef seagrasses. Another four species were exclusively observed in bay seagrasses. Since seagrass complexity could not be related to these differences, it is suggested that the arrangement of seagrass beds in the surrounding landscape (i.e. the arrangement on the continental shelf adjacent to the coral reef, or the arrangement in an embayment with mangroves situated away from reefs) has a possible effect on the occurrence of various reef-associated fish species on seagrass beds. Fish migration from or to the seagrass beds and recruitment and settlement patterns of larvae possibly explain these observations. Juvenile fish densities were similar in the two types of seagrass habitats indicating that seagrass beds adjacent to coral reefs also function as important juvenile habitats, even though they may be subject to higher levels of predation. On the contrary, the density and species richness of adult fish was significantly higher on reef seagrasses than on bay seagrasses, indicating that proximity to the coral reef increases density of adult fish on reef seagrasses, and/or that ontogenetic shifts to the reef may reduce adult density on bay seagrasses.     

Quantification of Loss and Change in Floridian Reef Coral Populations

Six coral reef locations between Miami and Key West were markedwith stainless steel stakes and rephotographed periodicallybetween 1984 and 1991. The monitored areas included two photostationsin the Looe Key National Marine Sanctuary, two photostationsin the Key Largo National Marine Sanctuary, and two photostationsin the Biscayne National Park. Stations were monitored for speciesnumber, percent cover, and species diversity of the scleractinianand hydrozoan stony corals. Monitoring began in 1984 for photostationsin the National Marine Sanctuaries and in 1989 for stationsin the National Park. All six areas lost coral species between the initial surveyyear and 1991. Survey areas lost between one and four species;these losses constituted between 13% and 29% of their speciesrichness. Five of the six areas lost live coral cover. Basedupon photographs taken repeatedly at these locations, net lossesranged between 7.3% and 43.9%. In the one station showing anincrease in coral cover, the increase was only for the canopybranches of Acropora palmata; understory branches of this samespecies lost surface area at the same rate as canopy branchesgained area. For most of the common species, there was a reductionin the total number of living colonies in the community, anda diminution in the number of large, mature colonies. Throughoutthe study period, there was no recruitment to any of the photostationsby any of the massive frame building coral species. Mortality of this magnitude is often associated with hurricanedamage, but in this survey the losses occurred during a periodwithout catastrophic storms. Sources of mortality identifiablein the photographs include (1) black band disease and (2) "bleaching"other potential sources of mortality are also considered. Weconclude, for our survey areas, that loss rates of this magnitudecannot be sustained for protracted periods if the coral communityis to persist in a configuration resembling historical coralreef community structure in the Florida Keys.     

Assessing the ‘deep reef refugia’ hypothesis: focus on Caribbean reefs

Coral reefs in shallow-water environments (<30 m) are in decline due to local and global anthropogenic stresses. This has led to renewed interest in the ‘deep reef refugia’ hypothesis (DRRH), which stipulates that deep reef areas (1) are protected or dampened from disturbances that affect shallow reef areas and (2) can provide a viable reproductive source for shallow reef areas following disturbance. Using the Caribbean as an example, the assumptions of this hypothesis were explored by reviewing the literature for scleractinian corals—the reef framework builders on tropical reefs. Although there is evidence to support that deep reefs (>30 m) can escape the direct effects of storm-induced waves and thermal bleaching events, deep reefs are certainly not immune to disturbance. Additionally, the potential of deep reefs to provide propagules for shallow reef areas seems limited to ‘depth-generalist’ coral species, which constitute only ~25% of the total coral biodiversity. Larval connectivity between shallow and deep populations of these species may be further limited due to specific life history traits (e.g., brooding reproductive strategy and vertical symbiont acquisition mode). This review exposes how little is known about deep reefs and coral reproduction over depth. Hence, a series of urgent research priorities are proposed to determine the extent to which deep reefs may act as a refuge in the face of global reef decline.     

The functional importance of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Acropora austera</Emphasis> as nursery areas for juvenile reef fish on South African coral reefs

Many coral reef fish species use mangrove and seagrass beds as nursery areas. However, in certain regions, the absence or scarcity of such habitats suggests that juvenile coral reef fish may be seeking refuge elsewhere. The underlying biogenic substratum of most coral reefs is structurally complex and provides many types of refuge. However, on young or subtropical coral reefs, species may be more reliant on the living coral layer as nursery areas. Such is the case on the high-latitude coral reefs of South Africa where the coral communities consist of a thin veneer of coral overlaying late Pleistocene bedrock. Thus, the morphology of coral species may be a major determinant in the availability of refuge space. Acropora austera is a branching species that forms large patches with high structural complexity. Associated with these patches is a diverse community of fish species, particularly juveniles. Over the past decade, several large (>100 m²) A. austera patches at Sodwana Bay have been diminishing for unknown reasons and there is little evidence of their replacement or regrowth. Seven patches of A. austera (AP) and non-A. austera (NAP) were selected and monitored for 12 months using visual surveys to investigate the importance of AP as refugia and nursery areas. There were significant differences in fish communities between AP and NAP habitats. In total, 110 species were recorded within the patches compared to 101 species outside the patches. Labrids and pomacentrids were the dominant species in the AP habitats, while juvenile scarids, acanthurids, chaetodons and serranids were also abundant. The diversity and abundance of fish species increased significantly with AP size. As the most structurally complex coral species on the reefs, the loss of APs may have significant implications for the recruitment and survival of certain fish species.     

Bathymetry,water optical properties,and benthic classification of coral reefs using hyperspectral remote sensing imagery

The complexity and heterogeneity of shallow coastal waters over small spatial scales provides a challenging environment for mapping and monitoring benthic habitats using remote sensing imagery. Additionally, changes in coral reef community structure are occurring on unprecedented temporal scales that require large-scale synoptic coverage and monitoring of coral reefs. A variety of sensors and analyses have been employed for monitoring coral reefs: this study applied a spectrum-matching and look-up-table methodology to the analysis of hyperspectral imagery of a shallow coral reef in the Bahamas. In unconstrained retrievals the retrieved bathymetry was on average within 5% of that measured acoustically, and 92% of pixels had retrieved depths within 25% of the acoustic depth. Retrieved absorption coefficients had less than 20% errors observed at blue wavelengths. The reef scale benthic classification derived by analysis of the imagery was consistent with the percent cover of specific coral reef habitat classes obtained by conventional line transects over the reef, and the inversions were robust as the results were similar when the benthic classification retrieval was constrained by measurements of bathymetry or water column optical properties. These results support the use of calibrated hyperspectral imagery for the rapid determination of bathymetry, water optical properties, and the classification of important habitat classes common to coral reefs.     

A comparison of line transect versus linear percentage sampling for evaluating stony coral (Scleractinia andMilleporina) community similarity and area coverage on reefs of the central Bahamas

Three methods of evaluating stony coral communities were used on selected reefs in the Exuma Cays Land and Sea Park (24°22N, 77°30W) in the central Bahamas. Shallow reefs (< 4 meters depth) were selected from aerial surveys based on size, location, and physical setting, and grouped into three community types: (1) channel patch reefs, (2) soft-coral-sponge patch reefs and (3) fringing reefs. Three survey techniques used to evaluate the stony coral communities were a) species presence and absence lists, b) linear percentage and c) line transects using 1 mx1 m grids. Data collected from these survey methods was used to calculate coral colony density, species area coverage, and species diversity based on colony number and based on linear (cm) coral cover. The linear percentage sampling was considered too convervative in determining distribution patterns of a reef community; this technique takes into account the massive reef framework species such asM. annularis. The line transect technique can account for both colony number and area coverage, thus is a better method for characterizing reef communities. Sample size considerations are discussed for future applications of survey techniques for ground-truthing digital images of small, shallow reef communities.     

The threat to coral reefs from more intense cyclones under climate change

Ocean warming under climate change threatens coral reefs directly, through fatal heat stress to corals and indirectly, by boosting the energy of cyclones that cause coral destruction and loss of associated organisms. Although cyclone frequency is unlikely to rise, cyclone intensity is predicted to increase globally, causing more frequent occurrences of the most destructive cyclones with potentially severe consequences for coral reef ecosystems. While increasing heat stress is considered a pervasive risk to coral reefs, quantitative estimates of threats from cyclone intensification are lacking due to limited data on cyclone impacts to inform projections. Here, using extensive data from Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), we show that increases in cyclone intensity predicted for this century are sufficient to greatly accelerate coral reef degradation. Coral losses on the outer GBR were small, localized and offset by gains on undisturbed reefs for more than a decade, despite numerous cyclones and periods of record heat stress, until three unusually intense cyclones over 5 years drove coral cover to record lows over >1500 km. Ecological damage was particularly severe in the central‐southern region where 68% of coral cover was destroyed over >1000 km, forcing record declines in the species richness and abundance of associated fish communities, with many local extirpations. Four years later, recovery of average coral cover was relatively slow and there were further declines in fish species richness and abundance. Slow recovery of community diversity appears likely from such a degraded starting point. Highly unusual characteristics of two of the cyclones, aside from high intensity, inflated the extent of severe ecological damage that would more typically have occurred over 100s of km. Modelling published predictions of future cyclone activity, the likelihood of more intense cyclones within time frames of coral recovery by mid‐century poses a global threat to coral reefs and dependent societies.     

Maintenance of fish diversity on disturbed coral reefs

Habitat perturbations play a major role in shaping community structure; however, the elements of disturbance-related habitat change that affect diversity are not always apparent. This study examined the effects of habitat disturbances on species richness of coral reef fish assemblages using annual surveys of habitat and 210 fish species from 10 reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Over a period of 11 years, major disturbances, including localised outbreaks of crown-of-thorns sea star (Acanthaster planci), severe storms or coral bleaching, resulted in coral decline of 46–96% in all the 10 reefs. Despite declines in coral cover, structural complexity of the reef framework was retained on five and species richness of coral reef fishes maintained on nine of the disturbed reefs. Extensive loss of coral resulted in localised declines of highly specialised coral-dependent species, but this loss of diversity was more than compensated for by increases in the number of species that feed on the epilithic algal matrix (EAM). A unimodal relationship between areal coral cover and species richness indicated species richness was greatest at approximately 20% coral cover declining by 3–4 species (6–8% of average richness) at higher and lower coral cover. Results revealed that declines in coral cover on reefs may have limited short-term impact on the diversity of coral reef fishes, though there may be fundamental changes in the community structure of fishes.     

Coral–algal phase shifts alter fish communities and reduce fisheries production

Anthropogenic stress has been shown to reduce coral coverage in ecosystems all over the world. A phase shift towards an algae‐dominated system may accompany coral loss. In this case, the composition of the reef‐associated fish assemblage will change and human communities relying on reef fisheries for income and food security may be negatively impacted. We present a case study based on the Raja Ampat Archipelago in Eastern Indonesia. Using a dynamic food web model, we simulate the loss of coral reefs with accompanied transition towards an algae‐dominated state and quantify the likely change in fish populations and fisheries productivity. One set of simulations represents extreme scenarios, including 100% loss of coral. In this experiment, ecosystem changes are driven by coral loss itself and a degree of habitat dependency by reef fish is assumed. An alternative simulation is presented without assumed habitat dependency, where changes to the ecosystem are driven by historical observations of reef fish communities when coral is lost. The coral–algal phase shift results in reduced biodiversity and ecosystem maturity. Relative increases in the biomass of small‐bodied fish species mean higher productivity on reefs overall, but much reduced landings of traditionally targeted species.     

Predicting the Location and Spatial Extent of Submerged Coral Reef Habitat in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area,Australia

Aim

Coral reef communities occurring in deeper waters have received little research effort compared to their shallow-water counterparts, and even such basic information as their location and extent are currently unknown throughout most of the world. Using the Great Barrier Reef as a case study, habitat suitability modelling is used to predict the distribution of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We test the effectiveness of a range of geophysical and environmental variables for predicting the location of deep-water coral reef communities on the Great Barrier Reef.

Location

Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

Methods

Maximum entropy modelling is used to identify the spatial extent of two broad communities of habitat-forming megabenthos phototrophs and heterotrophs. Models were generated using combinations of geophysical substrate properties derived from multibeam bathymetry and environmental data derived from Bio-ORACLE, combined with georeferenced occurrence records of mesophotic coral communities from autonomous underwater vehicle, remotely operated vehicle and SCUBA surveys. Model results are used to estimate the total amount of mesophotic coral reef habitat on the GBR.

Results

Our models predict extensive but previously undocumented coral communities occurring both along the continental shelf-edge of the Great Barrier Reef and also on submerged reefs inside the lagoon. Habitat suitability for phototrophs is highest on submerged reefs along the outer-shelf and the deeper flanks of emergent reefs inside the GBR lagoon, while suitability for heterotrophs is highest in the deep waters along the shelf-edge. Models using only geophysical variables consistently outperformed models incorporating environmental data for both phototrophs and heterotrophs.

Main Conclusion

Extensive submerged coral reef communities that are currently undocumented are likely to occur throughout the Great Barrier Reef. High-quality bathymetry data can be used to identify these reefs, which may play an important role in resilience of the GBR ecosystem to climate change.     

Large‐scale coral reef rehabilitation after blast fishing in Indonesia

The severely degraded condition of many coral reefs worldwide calls for active interventions to rehabilitate their physical and biological structure and function, in addition to effective management of fisheries and no‐take reserves. Rehabilitation efforts to stabilize reef substratum sufficiently to support coral growth have been limited in size. We documented a large coral reef rehabilitation in Indonesia aiming to restore ecosystem functions by increasing live coral cover on a reef severely damaged by blast fishing and coral mining. The project deployed small, modular, open structures to stabilize rubble and to support transplanted coral fragments. Between 2013 to 2015, approximately 11,000 structures covering 7,000 m² were deployed over 2 ha of a reef at a cost of US$174,000. Live coral cover on the structures increased from less than 10% initially to greater than 60% depending on depth, deployment date and location, and disturbances. The mean live coral cover in the rehabilitation area in October 2017 was higher than reported for reefs in many other areas in the Coral Triangle, including marine protected areas, but lower than in the no‐take reference reef. At least 42 coral species were observed growing on the structures. Surprisingly, during the massive coral bleaching in other regions during the 2014–2016 El Niño–Southern Oscillation event, bleaching in the rehabilitation area was less than 5% cover despite warm water (≥30°C). This project demonstrates that coral rehabilitation is achievable over large scales where coral reefs have been severely damaged and are under continuous anthropogenic disturbances in warming waters.     

Global human footprint on the linkage between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in reef fishes

Difficulties in scaling up theoretical and experimental results have raised controversy over the consequences of biodiversity loss for the functioning of natural ecosystems. Using a global survey of reef fish assemblages, we show that in contrast to previous theoretical and experimental studies, ecosystem functioning (as measured by standing biomass) scales in a non-saturating manner with biodiversity (as measured by species and functional richness) in this ecosystem. Our field study also shows a significant and negative interaction between human population density and biodiversity on ecosystem functioning (i.e., for the same human density there were larger reductions in standing biomass at more diverse reefs). Human effects were found to be related to fishing, coastal development, and land use stressors, and currently affect over 75% of the world's coral reefs. Our results indicate that the consequences of biodiversity loss in coral reefs have been considerably underestimated based on existing knowledge and that reef fish assemblages, particularly the most diverse, are greatly vulnerable to the expansion and intensity of anthropogenic stressors in coastal areas.     

Disease in scleractinian corals: a new problem in the reef at Cayo Sombrero, Morrocoy National Park, Venezuela?

At the beginning of 1996 coral reefs in Morrocoy National Park, Venezuela, suffered an unprecedented mass mortality event. As a consequence, live coral cover dropped to 2-10%. One of the few reefs that kept live coral cover over 35% was Cayo Sombrero; nonetheless, the presence of some coral diseases has been detected within the past 2 years, representing a new source of coral mortality. Due to this situation, this study started a monitoring program on the incidence of coral diseases and syndromes in the reef of Cayo Sombrero. The CARICOMP protocol was used in order to evaluate reef health. Ten parallel band-transects (20 x 2m) where established at two depth intervals: Five between 3-8 m and five between 8-12 m, and the frequency of both, healthy and unhealthy colonies of each coral species was recorded along each band transect. In addition to other sources of coral damage (predation, siltation, etc), significant differences in disease incidence between the two depths intervals were tested with a Kruskall-Wallis test. The main problems observed were coral diseases such as yellow band (4.2%), dark spots (1.61%) and white plague-II (1.4%), mainly affecting Montastraea faveolata, M. annularis and Siderastrea siderea. Siltation, affecting massive colonies, such as Colpophyllia natans and Diploria strigosa; algae overgrowth, predation, anchor damage, and bleaching. Significant differences were found in the incidence of unhealthy (Kruskall-Wallis, p < 0.05) bleached (Kruskall-Wallis, p < 0.05) and colonies affected by siltation (Kruskall-Wallis, p < 0.05). More than 60% of the 585 coral colonies surveyed at both depths were found to be healthy, indicating that the Cayo Sombrero reef is still in good conditions compared to other localities in the Park. This study stresses the need to conduct early monitoring programs that survey coral disease incidence as a source of mortality for this coral reef.     

The dynamics of architectural complexity on coral reefs under climate change

One striking feature of coral reef ecosystems is the complex benthic architecture which supports diverse and abundant fauna, particularly of reef fish. Reef‐building corals are in decline worldwide, with a corresponding loss of live coral cover resulting in a loss of architectural complexity. Understanding the dynamics of the reef architecture is therefore important to envision the ability of corals to maintain functional habitats in an era of climate change. Here, we develop a mechanistic model of reef topographical complexity for contemporary Caribbean reefs. The model describes the dynamics of corals and other benthic taxa under climate‐driven disturbances (hurricanes and coral bleaching). Corals have a simplified shape with explicit diameter and height, allowing species‐specific calculation of their colony surface and volume. Growth and the mechanical (hurricanes) and biological erosion (parrotfish) of carbonate skeletons are important in driving the pace of extension/reduction in the upper reef surface, the net outcome being quantified by a simple surface roughness index (reef rugosity). The model accurately simulated the decadal changes of coral cover observed in Cozumel (Mexico) between 1984 and 2008, and provided a realistic hindcast of coral colony‐scale (1–10 m) changing rugosity over the same period. We then projected future changes of Caribbean reef rugosity in response to global warming. Under severe and frequent thermal stress, the model predicted a dramatic loss of rugosity over the next two or three decades. Critically, reefs with managed parrotfish populations were able to delay the general loss of architectural complexity, as the benefits of grazing in maintaining living coral outweighed the bioerosion of dead coral skeletons. Overall, this model provides the first explicit projections of reef rugosity in a warming climate, and highlights the need of combining local (protecting and restoring high grazing) to global (mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions) interventions for the persistence of functional reef habitats.     

The future of evolutionary diversity in reef corals

One-third of the world''s reef-building corals are facing heightened extinction risk from climate change and other anthropogenic impacts. Previous studies have shown that such threats are not distributed randomly across the coral tree of life, and future extinctions have the potential to disproportionately reduce the phylogenetic diversity of this group on a global scale. However, the impact of such losses on a regional scale remains poorly known. In this study, we use phylogenetic metrics in conjunction with geographical distributions of living reef coral species to model how extinctions are likely to affect evolutionary diversity across different ecoregions. Based on two measures—phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic species variability—we highlight regions with the largest losses of evolutionary diversity and hence of potential conservation interest. Notably, the projected loss of evolutionary diversity is relatively low in the most species-rich areas such as the Coral Triangle, while many regions with fewer species stand to lose much larger shares of their diversity. We also suggest that for complex ecosystems like coral reefs it is important to consider changes in phylogenetic species variability; areas with disproportionate declines in this measure should be of concern even if phylogenetic diversity is not as impacted. These findings underscore the importance of integrating evolutionary history into conservation planning for safeguarding the future diversity of coral reefs.