Comparative Risk Assessment Methods and Their Applicability to Dredged Material Management Decision-Making

This article reviews the status of comparative risk assessment within the context of environmental decision-making; evaluates its potential application as a decision-making framework for selecting alternative technologies for dredged material management; and makes recommendations for implementing such a framework. One of the most important points from this review for decision-making is that comparative risk assessment, however conducted, is an inherently subjective, value-laden process. There is some objection to this lack of total scientific objectivity (“hard version” of comparative risk assessment). However, the “hard versions” provide little help in suggesting a method that surmounts the psychology of choice in decision-making schemes. The application of comparative risk assessment in the decision-making process at dredged material management facilities will have an element of value and professional judgment in the process. The literature suggests that the best way to incorporate this subjectivity and still maintain a defensible comparative framework is to develop a method that is logically consistent and allows for uncertainty by comparing risks on the basis of more than one set of criteria, more than one set of categories, and more than one set of experts. It should incorporate a probabilistic approach where necessary and possible, based on management goals.     

区域综合生态风险评价框架——以雄安新区为例

构建区域生态风险评价框架有助于清晰地识别、评估、模拟、预测与管理区域生态风险,进而为区域生态安全网络构建和生态安全格局保障提供支撑。雄安新区的建设,使该区域面临巨大的土地利用变化,对区域生态系统的结构和功能产生不可忽视的影响,洪涝和干旱灾害对雄安新区及其周边区域生态系统具有显著的威胁。以雄安新区为例,构建包含暴露-响应关系、人为源和自然源相结合的区域综合生态风险评价框架,分别对城市化和气候变化背景下的雄安新区土地利用变化、洪涝灾害、干旱灾害三类胁迫引起的区域生态风险进行了评价和预测,确定其生态风险空间分布特征及变化趋势。结果表明：(1)从时间序列上来看,由于气候变化导致洪涝、干旱等自然灾害的影响,加上雄安新区的土地利用变化,雄安新区的生态风险在2025年后有所上升,但有序的规划和良好的地类配置使得雄安新区起步区在2025年后生态风险程度下降;(2)从空间上看,雄安新区风险高值区主要集中在白洋淀区以西和以南,以及新区东北部部分区域。最后,从土地利用管理、洪涝和干旱灾害预防等角度提出了生态风险防控对策：(1)雄安新区应坚持对土地利用的合理规划和严格管理,切实防止土地的无序利用,密切关注景观...     

A modular assessment tool for managing introduced fishes according to risks of species and their populations,and impacts of management actions

A modular assessment scheme for assisting the risk management of introduced fishes is described, with its recent application to England and Wales demonstrated. The initial module prioritises the introduced fishes in the risk assessment area according to their potential invasiveness and current distribution. The second module then assesses populations of the prioritised species in relation to the character of their receiving waters and the potential risks posed by their population in that circumstance; the output is a suggested management action for each population. The third module evaluates the suggested management action in relation to its potential impacts in the environment and how these impacts may be mitigated. The final module assesses the estimated cumulative cost of the selected management action relative to an alternative action. To demonstrate its potential value for managing extant populations of introduced fish, three eradication case-studies from England were assessed retrospectively using the scheme. This revealed eradication of two topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva populations was commensurate with their levels of ecological risk in the environment. By contrast, initial assessment of the eradication of a feral population of fathead minnow Pimephales promelas suggested control and containment was the commensurate management action due to a relatively low risk of natural dispersal. Application of the scheme elsewhere in the world and to other faunal groups should enable more objective decision-making in management programmes and enhance conservation outcomes.     

Types of Integration in Risk Assessment and Management,And Why They Are Needed

Risk-based decision making requires that the decision makers and stakeholders are informed of all risks that are potentially significant and relevant to the decision. The International Programme on Chemical Safety of the World Health Organization has developed a framework for integrating the assessment of human health and ecological risks. However, other types of integration are needed to support particular environmental decisions. They are integration of exposure and effects, of multiple chemicals and other hazardous agents, of multiple routes of exposure, of multiple endpoints, multiple receptors, multiple spatial and temporal scales, a product's life cycle, management alternatives, and socioeconomics with risk assessment. Inclusion of all these factors in an integrated assessment could lead to paralysis by analysis. Therefore, it is important that assessors be cognizant of the decision process and that decision makers and those who will influence the decision (stakeholders) be involved in planning the assessment to ensure that the degree of integration is necessary and sufficient.     

Integrating Comparative Risk Assessment with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to Manage Contaminated Sediments: An Example for the New York/New Jersey Harbor

Current environmental challenges involve complex assessment and analysis of tradeoffs among differing criteria, expectations, and levels of certainty. Using multi-criteria decision analysis in combination with comparative risk assessment, a systematic and transparent framework can be created to integrate different types and sources of decision-relevant information. Although examples of decision analysis abound in the literature and academic efforts, its use within the practice of risk assessment and environmental management is still being established. This article provides an example of the use of decision analysis study that builds on a previous screening-level, comparative risk assessment of contaminated sediment from the New York/New Jersey harbor area. Using multi-criteria decision analysis, we explored the effect of different criteria weights, utility functions, and cost estimates on the ranking of seven contaminated sediment management alternatives. Values used in weighting decision criteria were surveyed from two interaction sessions with sediment management professionals.     

Risk management of non-target fish taxa in the Yakima River Watershed associated with hatchery salmon supplementation

Hatchery cultured salmon have the potential to interact strongly with other valued fish taxa (non-target taxa; NTT) in the natural environment. Monitoring and managing adverse interactions between hatchery supplemented salmon and NTT is one unique characteristic of a hatchery salmon supplementation program in the Yakima River, Washington. In this study, we evaluate impacts of spring Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and coho salmon O. kisutch reintroduction to 15 NTT after 11 years of stocking approximately one million yearling smolts annually in the upper Yakima Basin between 1999 and 2009. Our risk management monitoring indicated changes in important response variables for NTT were within acceptable limits. Rigorous pre-implementation planning likely prevented many undesirable ecological impacts from the hatchery supplementation program. We illustrate a number of important features associated with risk management of hatchery and wild fish interactions. First, pre-project planning can eliminate many risks of concern and substantially reduce the need for risk containment during project implementation. Second, the sieve approach for monitoring impacts provided an acceptable balance between monitoring effort and risk containment ability, although in some cases, we would not detect impacts of interest. Third, rare and disbursed species that cannot be monitored effectively benefit from risk averse hatchery release strategies. Fourth, risk containment monitoring programs can be used to refute unsubstantiated claims of undesirable impacts. In short, our experience suggests that risk management of ecological interactions can occur by using a combination of pre-project adjustments through risk assessment and risk reduction, and by cost-effective risk containment monitoring and management.     

Disease risk analysis: a tool for primate conservation planning and decision making

Concern about emerging and re-emerging diseases plays an increasing role in conservation and management of both captive and free-ranging nonhuman primates (NHPs). Managers and policy makers must formulate conservation plans in an arena plagued by uncertainty, complexity, emotion, and politics. The risk analysis paradigm provides a framework that brings together scientists and policy experts to make better decisions for both people and animals. Risk analysis is a multidisciplinary, science-based process that provides an organized and logical approach for incorporating scientific information into policy development in the real world. By blending four specific goal-oriented stages-hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication-one can logically assess the probability that an adverse event, such as the introduction of an emerging disease into a na?ve population, will occur. The following is a review of this process as it pertains to NHP conservation and risks associated with infectious diseases.     

基于生态系统服务和生态系统健康的生态风险评价——以长株潭城市群为例

基于生态系统服务和生态系统健康的生态风险评估框架为城市群生态风险管理和国土生态修复提供新的视角。以生态风险评估框架为基础,综合运用生态系统服务、生态系统健康评估模型以及相关分析法对长株潭城市群展开生态风险评价,并对风险程度进行分类。结果表明:(1)城市群的城市化水平提升,区域生态风险也随之增加。生态系统服务价值、生态系统组织、生态系统活力、生态系统弹性等生态指数呈现下降趋势。(2)人工表面比率和生态指数之间的Pearson相关系数表明,人工表面比率与生态指数之间存在负相关关系,人工表面比率是生态风险提升的关键因素。(3)城市群人工表面比率要控制在36%以下,以进行生态风险管理和国土生态修复。总的来说,评价框架可以作为区域生态风险的评价终点。     

美国、加拿大环境和健康风险管理方法

对目前美国和加拿大多个部门使用的风险评价与风险管理方法进行了全面回顾和综合分析,论述各种不同方法的特征,深入探讨各种管理方法的基础、利弊、使用经验,辨识环境、人类健康和职业健康风险综合方法中应该包含的要素,阐述风险管理目标的确定方法,以期为中国的环境风险管理提供经验。     

Approaches to Ecological Risk Characterization and Management: Selecting the Right Tools for the Job

Chemical-specific hazard quotient (HQ) risk characterization in ecological risk assessment (ERA) can be a value-added tool for risk management decision-making at chemical release sites, when applied appropriately. However, there is little consensus regarding how HQ results can be used for risk management decision-making at the population, community, and ecosystem levels. Furthermore, stakeholders are reluctant to consider alternatives to HQ results for risk management decisions. Chemical-specific HQs risk characterization should be viewed as only one of several approaches (i.e., tools) for addressing ecological issues; and in many situations, other quantitative and qualitative approaches will likely result in superior risk management decisions. The purpose of this paper is to address fundamental issues and limitations associated with chemical-specific HQ risk characterization in ERA, to identify when it may be appropriate, to explore alternatives that are currently available, and to identify areas that could be developed for the future. Several alternatives (i.e., compensatory restoration, performance-based ecological monitoring, ecological significance criteria, net environmental benefit analysis), including their limitations, that can supplement, augment, or substitute for HQs in ERA are presented. In addition, areas of research (i.e., wildlife habitat assessment/landscape ecology/population biology, and field validated risk-based screening levels) that could yield new tools are discussed.     

生态风险评价研究进展

20多年来,生态风险评价研究经历了从环境风险到生态风险到区域生态风险评价的发展历程,风险源由单一风险源扩展到多风险源,风险受体由单一受体发展到多受体,评价范围由局地扩展到区域景观水平.区域生态风险评价就是大尺度上研究复杂环境背景下包含多风险源、多风险受体的综合风险研究.目前,区域生态风险评价的理论框架已经搭建起来,统计方法多采用相对评价法.区域生态风险评价未来的发展方向为继续加强实验和野外调查,进一步减小不确定性,逐步解决尺度推移问题.区域生态风险评价必须与经济、社会、文化相结合,才能充分发挥它在管理决策中的作用.     

Quantitative Assessment for Selecting the Route for a Gas Pipeline in Yucatan,Mexico

A quantitative comparative assessment was used to decide the best route for constructing a gas pipeline in the state of Yucatan, Mexico. Two alternative routes were assessed. The focus of the analysis was to develop an integrated assessment that would help minimize land degradation by economic development activities, taking into account the impact on physical and biological resources, and on human population. The ecological impact, the potential risk of an accident, and the cost for both alternatives were considered. The significance of the impact depends on the relative importance and quantity of components to be affected by the pipeline along both routes. In this work, a method for the ecological assessment of the alternative routes was used and an index was used for risk assessment considering the possibilities of pipeline damage by local people, the amount of agricultural activities, inflexion points, and topography along the route. The analysis indicated that the ecological impact, risk of accident, and cost are lower by constructing the pipeline along the recommended route. Population density along the alternative route was higher than on the recommended one. The results of the analysis were submitted to the Mexican Environmental Ministry and the pipeline project was approved in 1997.     

Host-associated differentiation of target pests should be assessed before using gene drive as a pest control tool − an opinion

Advances in gene editing have made feasible the potential use of gene drive for pest control. Ecological risk assessments will certainly be required before this technology can be released into open fields. In this article, I argue for the importance to include host-associated differentiation (HAD) as part of ecological risk assessment models due to its potential to modulate gene drive spread and risk. Depending on the context, HAD may hamper or facilitate pest control efforts using gene drives. Overlooking HAD may impair pest suppression goals and inflate estimations of effective population sizes, whereas its inclusion within gene drive deployment strategies, as a form of ecological containment, may facilitate gene drive implementation under specific scenarios. Because HAD varies geographically and among closely related species, it will need to be assessed on a case-by-case basis. Failure to incorporate HAD within ecological risk assessment models may undermine pest control goals and diminish the accuracy of estimated ecological risks associated with gene drive releases.     

城市综合生态风险评价——以淮北市城区为例

城市面临复杂的生态风险,为了保障城市安全,需要对单一灾害或污染源的生态风险评估结果进行整合。基于城市复合生态系统特性,将当前城市地域常见的生态风险区分为自然灾害、环境污染及生态退化等3种主要类型,以土地利用单元作为风险受体,整合自然、人文、景观及环境因子,在现有生态风险评价研究方法基础上,构建了城市综合生态风险评价的空间分析框架。研究中选择淮北市城区作为研究区,针对研究区内存在的洪涝、干旱、水污染、大气污染、采煤塌陷及生态服务降低等生态风险类型,定量评价其空间差异,并提出相应的风险防范措施。案例分析结果表明,研究区综合生态风险较高的区域包括龙河、岱河、龙岱河与闸河等过境河流流经塌陷密集带的河段,北湖、东湖、中湖及南湖等人工湖泊沿岸,化家湖湖岸,及土型、新蔡、北杨新杨煤矿及其外围地区。由降低生态风险保障城市生态安全角度,在未来城市的整体规划中,建议结合城市外围绿地与城市内部的高风险区域,划设禁建或限建区域,共同构建淮北城市生态风险防范的空间结构。     

基于土地利用变化的细河流域景观生态风险评估

以辽宁省细河流域为研究对象,利用1985、1995年和2005年3个时期的Landsat TM及2015年Landsat OLI遥感数据,进行了细河流域土地利用解译,定量分析了流域近30年来土地利用动态变化特征;根据景观生态学理论引入景观生态风险评价模型,将研究区划分为340个生态风险评价单元,基于地统计学和空间自相关方法,对1985—2015年细河流域景观生态风险时空分布特征及空间关联格局进行了评价。结果表明:(1)自1985年以来,研究区的6种土地利用类型皆发生了变化,其中建设用地由于林地和耕地的大量转入增加最明显。(2)1985—2015年流域高、较高和中生态风险区面积增加,且向流域南部转移;低、较低生态风险区面积减少,且向流域北部集聚;流域整体生态风险呈增高趋势。(3)研究区各时期景观生态风险呈现正的空间相关性,在空间上趋于集聚。人类活动干扰导致景观破碎,是影响该区域景观生态风险最重要的原因。     

Consideration of Background Radiation in Ecological Risk Assessments

Background or ambient concentrations are often considered in the evaluation of potential risks to ecological receptors from exposure to hazardous chemicals in the environment. Such an evaluation may be a component of the screening or final risk management process and sets the baseline from which risks contributed by site-related activities can be addressed. Although the process for the evaluation of potential radiological risks to ecological receptors is less formalized than the chemical hazard assessment process, background remains an issue that should be addressed when considering potential site-related impacts. This paper briefly presents the ecological risk assessment approaches used to address background radionuclide concentrations at three United States Department of Defense Facilities. The concepts of total radiation dose, and tolerance and adaptation of populations to radiation are also discussed within the context of background radiation.     

A blueprint for the problem formulation phase of EPA-type ecological risk assessments for 316(b) determinations

The difference between management objectives focused on sustainability of fish populations and the indigenous aquatic community, and a management objective focused on minimizing entrainment and impingement losses accounts for much of the ongoing controversy surrounding paragraph 316(b). We describe the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework and recommend that this framework be used to more effectively address differences in management objectives and structure paragraph 316(b) determinations. We provide a blueprint for the problem formulation phase of EPA-type ecological risk assessments for cooling-water intake structures (CWIS) at existing power plant facilities. Our management objectives, assessment endpoints, conceptual model, and generic analysis plan apply to all existing facilities. However, adapting the problem formulation process for a specific facility requires consideration of the permitting agency's guidelines and level of regulatory concern, as well as site-specific ecological and technical differences. The facility-specific problem formulation phase is designed around the hierarchy of biological levels of organization in the generic conceptual model and the sequence of cause-effect events and risk hypotheses represented by this model. Problem formulation is designed to be flexible in that it can be tailored for facilities where paragraph 316(b) regulatory concern is low or high. For some facilities, we anticipate that the assessment can be completed based on consideration of susceptibility alone. At the other extreme, a high level of regulatory concern combined with the availability of extensive information and consideration of costly CWIS mitigation options may result in the ecological risk assessment relying on analyses at all levels. Decisions on whether to extend the ecological risk assessment to additional levels should be based on whether regulatory or generator concerns merit additional analyses and whether available information is adequate to support such analyses. In making these decisions, the functional dependence between levels of analysis must be considered in making the transition to the analysis phase and risk estimation component of the ecological risk assessment. Regardless of how the generic analysis plan is modified to develop a facility-specific analysis plan, the resulting plan should be viewed as a tool for comparing representative species and alternative CWIS options by focusing on relative changes (i.e., proportional or percent changes) in various measures. The analysis plan is specifically designed to encourage consideration of multiple lines of evidence and to characterize uncertainties in each line of evidence. Multiple lines of evidence from different levels of analysis, obtained using both prospective and retrospective techniques, provide a broader perspective on the magnitude of potential effects and associated uncertainties and risks. The implications of the EPA's recent (April 2002) proposed regulations for existing facilities on the applicability of this blueprint are briefly considered.     

流域生态风险评价研究进展

流域生态风险评价是流域生态环境保护与管理的重要研究内容,与一般的区域生态风险评价相比,具有其独特的流域特征。在已有研究基础上,对流域生态风险评价进行了概念界定与特征分析,并按照风险源、生态受体、生态终点的分类标准对流域生态风险评价进行了类型划分,简要评述了流域生态风险评价的相关研究主题,并尝试构建反映流域时空尺度变化规律的生态风险评价概念模型。最后针对流域生态风险评价的研究现状,重点讨论了目前存在的不足及未来的研究趋向。     

The use of bioassay and associated tests in dredged material and disposal management

Plant bioassays and simulated rainfall-surface runoff tests have been developed and are being refined to assist in the evaluation of the environmental impact of dredged material disposal alternatives. Plant bioassay tests have been used to give appropriate information to describe the potential for contaminant mobility from dredged material into plants colonizing wetland and upland disposal environments. Index plants have shown elevated contents of Cd, Zn, Cu, Cr and Pb when grown on contaminated dredged material placed in a terrestrial disposal environment. Simulated rainfall-surface runoff water quality tests are being developed to determine the potential for contaminant mobility resulting from physicochemical changes in dredged material following upland disposal.A management strategy has been developed that incorporates the above test results for a selection of environmentally acceptable dredged material disposal alternatives.     

Plan for an Integrated Human and Environmental Risk Assessment in the S. Domingos Mine Area (Portugal)

The need for the integration of the assessment of human and ecological risks in contaminated areas, such as derelict mines, widely increases. The risk assessment process is becoming a powerful tool to provide sound scientific bases for decision-making processes. In Portugal, the risk assessment process is in its early years and the lack of multidisciplinary teams of experts is frequently mentioned as the main obstacle to its implementation. Therefore, the majority of the reclamation actions are based on impact assessment studies that usually are characterized by few biological and toxicological considerations. In order to account for some of these constraints, the ecological risk assessment framework proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was used to plan the assessment of human and ecological risks posed by the high concentrations of metals scattered in the vicinity of S. Domingos mine, a cuprous pyrite mine located in the Southeast Alentejo (Portugal). This study presents the problem formulation phase of the assessment. It includes all the scientific information available for the area, a conceptual model, and an analysis plan for the risk assessment process. Following a tiered approach, several tasks were planned in order to acquire chemical, toxicological, and ecological information, in order to compensate for the lack of toxicity data for site-specific species.