Effects of Habitat on Mallard Duckling Survival in the Great Lakes Region

Abstract: Habitat provides food and shelter resources for prefledgling waterfowl and thus plays a critical role in their growth, development, and survival. However, few studies have examined whether and how particular elements of habitat affect duckling survival. We investigated relationships of duckling survival rates with distance of overland travel, wetland vegetation composition, water permanency, and surrounding upland vegetation for 116 mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) broods in the Great Lakes region from 2001 to 2003. We found that the probability, on hatch day, that a mallard duckling will survive to 55 days was positively related to the proportion of wetland area that was vegetated and negatively related to the proportion of forest cover within 500 m of duckling locations. We found little support for relationships between duckling survival rates and the proportions of grasslands or seasonal wetlands or to distances traveled overland by broods. Our results suggest that conservation groups and wildlife managers in the Great Lakes region can improve mallard duckling survival rates by managing for, creating, and protecting vegetated wetlands and focusing efforts within lightly-forested areas.     

Correlation Between Nest and Duckling Survival of Mallards Breeding in Saskatchewan

Abstract: Few studies have estimated reproductive and survival parameters of breeding ducks simultaneously, although such efforts can reveal relationships among vital rates. We estimated survival of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) nests and duckling on 8 study sites in south-central Saskatchewan during spring and summer 2000 and 2001. We observed a strong positive correlation between these parameters (r = 0.914) and through analysis of residual values found 14% of the relationship was explained by a predator-removal treatment, 26% by year effects, 44% by spatial variation, and 16% unexplained. Potential mechanisms include similar environmental factors influencing both parameters (e.g., predators) and positive density dependence. Information regarding covariation among vital rates is important in construction and interpretation of population growth models describing population dynamics of mallards and other upland-nesting ducks.     

Ecosystem integrity in the Great Lakes Basin: an historical sketch of ideas and actions

The concepts of ecosystem and integrity effectively entered the binational political arena in the Great Lakes Basin in the early 1970's. They were brought together explicitly in the statement of the purpose of the 1978 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. The 1987 Protocol to that Agreement has helped to specify the practical meaning of ecosystem integrity of the Great Lakes Basin. The proceedings of a binational workshop in 1988, titled An Ecosystem Approach to the Integrity of the Great Lakes Basin in Turbulent Times, helped to clarify the conceptual meaning. An Ecosystem Charter for the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin was proposed in 1989 to help achieve more thorough implementation of the commitment to ecosystem integrity. The evolutionary emergence of this political concept and related practice is described in the paper.List of abbreviations used in the text CUSIS Canada-U.S. Inter-University Seminar Series - LAA Environmental Lakes Area - EPA Environmental Protection Agency - GLBC Great Lakes Basin Commission - GLC Great Lakes Commission - GLER Great Lakes Ecosystem Rehabilitation - GLFC Great Lakes Fishery Commission - GLSAB Great Lakes Science Advisory Board - GLU Great Lakes United - GLWQA Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement - HASP Heritage Area Security Plan - IBP International Biological Program - IJC International Joint Commission - IZAP Inundation Zone Adaptive Plan - LAMP Lake-wide Management Plan - LLRS Lake Levels Reference Study - MAB Man and the Biosphere program - NEPA National Environmental Policy Act - PLUARG Pollution from Land Use Activities Reference Group - RAP Remedial Action Plan - SCOL Salmonid Communities in Oligotrophic Lakes - SGLFMP Strategic Great Lakes Fishery Management Plan - SPOF Strategic Plan for Ontario Fisheries - UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Aquatic Ecosystem Health and Management Society. Symposium at the University of Waterloo, July 23–25, 1990.     

Consideration of Geography and Wetland Geomorphic Type in the Development of Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Bird Indicators

We examined how geographic distribution of birds and their affinities to three geomorphic wetland types would affect the scale at which we developed indicators based on breeding bird communities for Great Lakes coastal wetlands. We completed 385 breeding bird surveys on 222 wetlands in the US portion of the basin in 2002 and 2003. Analyses showed that wetlands within two ecoprovinces (Laurentian Mixed Forest and Eastern Broadleaf Forest) had different bird communities. Bird communities were also significantly different among five lakes (Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario) and among three wetland types (lacustrine, riverine, barrier-protected). Indicator values illustrated bird species with high affinities for each group (ecoprovince, lake, wetland type). Species with restricted geographic ranges, such as Alder and Willow Flycatchers (Empidonax alnorum and E. traillii), had significant affinities for ecoprovince. Ten bird species had significant affinities for lacustrine wetlands. Analyses on avian guild metrics showed that Lake Ontario wetlands had fewer long-distant migrants and warblers than other lakes. Numbers of short-distant migrants and total individuals in wetlands were higher in the Eastern Broadleaf Forest ecoprovince. Number of flycatchers and wetland obligate birds were not different among provinces, lakes, or wetland type. One potential indicator for wetland condition in Great Lakes wetlands, proportion of obligate wetland birds, responded negatively to proportion of developed land within 1 km of the wetland. We conclude that, although a guild approach to indicator development ameliorates species-specific geographic differences in distribution, individual species responses to disturbance scale will need to be considered in future indicator development with this approach.     

The role of Late Holocene climate variability in the expansion of yellow birch in the western Great Lakes region

Abstract. Pollen records from the western Great Lakes region of North America show substantial increases in birch pollen percentages during the late Holocene. The vegetational and population dynamics underlying the birch increase have received little attention, in part because of the inability to discriminate among species of birch based on pollen morphology. We used analyses of pollen and plant macrofossils from four lakes in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan to document that the birch pollen increase represents a regional expansion of yellow birch ( Betula alleghaniensis ) populations, which was initiated c . 4500 years ago. Whether yellow birch invaded the region at this time or simply expanded from small, previously established populations is not clear, although it probably did not grow near our study sites before the expansion. The initial expansion occurred during an independently documented period of high moisture and high water levels in Lake Michigan. A subsequent expansion in yellow birch abundance and distribution occurred c . 3000 years ago, coinciding with a second period of increased moisture and high lake-levels. The yellow birch expansion may have been modulated by millennial-scale climate variability, with most rapid expansion occurring during relatively wet periods.     

Broad- to fine-scale population genetic patterning in the smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu across the Laurentian Great Lakes and beyond: an interplay of behaviour and geography

Analysis of population genetic relationships reveals the signatures of current processes such as spawning behaviour and migration, as well as those of historical events including vicariance and climate change. This study examines these signatures through testing broad‐ to fine‐scale genetic patterns among smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu spawning populations across their native Great Lakes range and outgroup areas, with fine‐scale concentration in Lake Erie. Our primary hypotheses include whether genetic patterns result from behavioural and/or geographical isolation, specifically: (i) Are spawning groups in interconnected waterways genetically separable? (ii) What is the degree of isolation across and among lakes, basins, and tributaries? (iii) Do genetic divergences correspond to geographical distances? and (iv) Are historical colonization patterns from glacial refugia retained? Variation at eight nuclear microsatellite DNA loci are analysed for 666 smallmouth bass from 28 locations, including 425 individuals in Lake Erie; as well as Lakes Superior, Huron, and Ontario, and outgroups from the Mississippi, Ohio, St. Lawrence, and Hudson River drainages. Results reveal marked genetic differences among lake and river populations, as well as surprisingly high divergences among closely spaced riverine sites. Results do not fit an isolation‐by‐geographical‐distance prediction for fine‐scale genetic patterns, but show weak correspondence across large geographical scales. Genetic relationships thus are consistent with hypotheses regarding divergent origins through vicariance in glacial refugia, followed by colonization pathways establishing modern‐day Great Lakes populations, and maintenance through behavioural site fidelity. Conservation management practices thus should preserve genetic identity and unique characters among smallmouth bass populations.     

Mercury risks versus nutritional benefits of tribal commercial fish harvests in the Upper Laurentian Great Lakes

The Inter-Tribal Fisheries and Assessment Program (ITFAP) of the Chippewa Ottawa Resource Authority (CORA) in Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan, has been monitoring contaminant concentrations in the fillet portions of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) from the waters of lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan since 1991. The primary purpose of this article is to present a risk quantification of methylmercury (MeHg) that is adjusted for nutritional benefit, originally presented by Ginsberg and Toal (2009 Ginsberg GL and Toal BF. 2009. Quantitative approach for incorporating methylmercury risks and omega-3 fatty acid benefits in developing species-specific fish consumption advice. Environ Health Perspect 117:267–75[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2015) on trends in contaminant concentrations in fillet portions of these commercial fish that we recently reported in Dellinger et al. (2014 Dellinger JA, Moths MD, Dellinger M, et al. 2014. Contaminant trends in freshwater fish from the Great Lakes: A 20 year analysis. Hum Ecol Risk Assess 20:461–78[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Both species of fish caught by tribal fishermen showed clear benefits to cardiovascular health and infant neurodevelopment if consumed at a rate of six ounces per week. However, other popularly consumed fish such as cod, tuna, and tilapia are estimated to have only marginal benefit or net negative effects on cardiovascular health and infant neurodevelopment. This dynamic assessment of benefits and risks further demonstrates the importance of traditionally caught fish in tribal health.     

Population dynamics of the rare plant Kosteletzkya pentacarpos (Malvaceae): a nine-year study

Rare plant species have extremely narrow distributions that can be reduced to a single or few populations. The rare long-lived plant Kosteletzkya pentacarpos is one such species because only two extant localities are known in the western Mediterranean. In this study, we analyse the population dynamics over nine years of the only population known in north-east Spain, which is located at the Llobregat delta (Barcelona). We collected basic demographic data to build a transition matrix model. We computed population growth rates λ and their confidence intervals for each year of study. We conducted elasticity and variance decomposition analyses to determine the relative importance of vital rates to overall population dynamics. On average, the K. pentacarpos population exhibited an increasing dynamics. Survivorship of adult plants contributed the most to each λ, whereas temporal variance in fecundity and juvenile fate explained the observed variation in λ. Despite the increasing dynamics of K. pentacarpos , important reductions in fecundity resulting from biotic agents and recruitment owing to habitat limitations are constraints for population growth. We conclude that the knowledge generated in this long-term study should be used to create new K. pentacarpos populations at the Llobregat delta in order to minimize the risk of extinction following catastrophic events that are nearly impossible to predict.  © 2007 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society , 2007, 153 , 455–462.     

Climate connectivity of the bobcat in the Great Lakes region

The Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River are imposing barriers for wildlife, and the additive effect of urban and agricultural development that dominates the lower Great Lakes region likely further reduces functional connectivity for many terrestrial species. As the climate warms, species will need to track climate across these barriers. It is important therefore to investigate land cover and bioclimatic hypotheses that may explain the northward expansion of species through the Great Lakes. We investigated the functional connectivity of a vagile generalist, the bobcat, as a representative generalist forest species common to the region. We genotyped tissue samples collected across the region at 14 microsatellite loci and compared different landscape hypotheses that might explain the observed gene flow or functional connectivity. We found that the Great Lakes and the additive influence of forest stands with either low or high canopy cover and deep lake‐effect snow have disrupted gene flow, whereas intermediate forest cover has facilitated gene flow. Functional connectivity in southern Ontario is relatively low and was limited in part by the low amount of forest cover. Pathways across the Great Lakes were through the Niagara region and through the Lower Peninsula of Michigan over the Straits of Mackinac and the St. Marys River. These pathways are important routes for bobcat range expansion north of the Great Lakes and are also likely pathways that many other mobile habitat generalists must navigate to track the changing climate. The extent to which species can navigate these routes will be important for determining the future biodiversity of areas north of the Great Lakes.     

Algal-availability of particulate phosphorus from diffuse and point sources in the lower Great Lakes basin

Control of phytoplankton production in the Great Lakes can be achieved most efficiently by limiting inputs of biologically available P. We report the results of studies performed to characterize the chemical forms and availability of particulate P in wastewater and tributaries which enter the lower Lakes, the eroding bluffs which border Lake Erie, and bottom samples from the near-shore of western Lake Erie. Rates of release of available P were estimated from a simple first-order model of the process, as observed during algal bioassays. Available P in wastewater samples, as a fraction of total particulate P, was affected minimally by wastewater treatment, including chemical precipitation and filtration; it correlated well with levels of total particulate P. Available particulate P levels in fluvial suspended sediments showed regional uniformity, but appeared to be strongly dependent on levels of both NaOH-P and CDB-P. Rates of release of available P decreased during wastewater treatment to values which were similar in magnitude to those observed for fluvial sediments. Release rates, however, were not related to any of the particulate P fractions which were measured. Analysis of the bluff and bottom samples indicated that P availability in the former was negligible, but the latter contained levels which approached those of wastewater particulates, though available P was released from the bottom sediments at relatively low rates.     

Production of Hexagenia limbata nymphs in contaminated sediments in the Upper Great Lakes Connecting Channels

In April through October 1986, we sampled sediments and populations of nymphs of the burrowing mayfly, Hexagenia limbata (Serville), at 11 locations throughout the connecting channels of the upper Great Lakes, to determine if sediment contaminants adversely affected nymph production. Production over this period was high (980 to 9231 mg dry wt m^-2) at the five locations where measured sediment levels of oil, cyanide, and six metals were below the threshold criteria of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Ontario Ministry of Environment for contaminated or polluted sediments, and also where the criterion for visible oil given in the Water Quality Agreement between the U.S.A. and Canada for connecting waters of the Great Lakes was not exceeded. At the other six locations where sediments were polluted, production was markedly lower (359 to 872 mg dry wt m^-2). This finding is significant because it indicates that existing sediment quality criteria can be applied to protect H. limbata from oil, cyanide, and metals in the Great Lakes and connecting channels where the species fulfills a major role in secondary production and trophic transfer of energy.Contribution 733, of the National Fisheries Research Center-Great Lakes, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1451 Green Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48105.     

Distribution of Hexagenia nymphs and visible oil in sediments of the Upper Great Lakes Connecting Channels

As part of the study of the Upper Great Lakes Connecting Channels sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service examined the occurrence of Hexagenia nymphs and visible oil in sediments at 250 stations throughout the St. Marys River and the St. Clair-Detroit River system from May 14 to June 11, 1985. The mean density of Hexagenia nymphs per square meter averaged 194 for the total study area, 224 in the St. Marys River, 117 in the St. Clair River, 279 in Lake St. Clair, and 94 in the Detroit River. The maximum density of nymphs ranged from 1,081 to 1,164 m^-2 in the three rivers and was 3,099 m^-2 in Lake St. Clair. A comparison of nymph density at 46 stations where oil was observed in sediments physically suitable for nymphs showed that densities were lower in oiled sediments (61 m^-2) than in sediments without oil (224 m^-2). Densities of nymphs were relatively high at only four stations where oil was observed in sediments. In general, oiled sediments and low densities of nymphs occurred together downstream from industrial and municipal discharges.Contribution number 736 of the National Fisheries Research Center-Great Lakes, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1451 Green Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48105.     

Distribution and habitat of Nitellopsis obtusa (Characeae) in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Nitellopsis obtusa, a macroalga (Characeae) native to Europe and Asia, was found in U.S. waters of the St. Clair-Detroit River system in 1983, thus extending the range of this taxon into the Laurentian Great Lakes about 850 km from the St. Lawrence River where it was first discovered in North America in 1978. Its occurrence only in water frequented by commercial shipping vessels suggests that it is distributed via this mechanism. In the St. Clair-Detroit River system, N. obtusa was collected with a Ponar grab at four locations, and with a grapnel at one additional location. It was the ninth most frequently found macrophyte and it was most abundant at Belle Isle in the Detroit River, where the mean dry-weight biomass in Ponar samples was 0 g m^-2 in June, 37 g m^-2 in August, and 32 g m⁻² in September. Maximum biomass of this taxon in one Ponar grab at this location was 289 g m^-2 in September. The alga occurred primarily in water of relatively low current velocity (11.3 cm s⁻¹) and in association with Vallisneria americana, Myriophyllum spicatum, Potamogeton richardsonii, Najas flexilis, and Elodea canadensis. Contribution 654, Great Lakes Fishery Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI 48105, USA Contribution 654, Great Lakes Fishery Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI 48105, USA     

Population Dynamics of Spotted Owls in the Sierra Nevada,California

ABSTRACT The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta-analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southem Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in these mountain ranges. We estimated apparent survival probability, reproductive output, and rate of population change for spotted owls on individual study areas and for all study areas combined (meta-analysis) using model selection or model-averaging based on maximum-likelihood estimation. We followed a formal protocol to conduct this analysis that was similar to other spotted owl meta-analyses. Consistency of field and analytical methods among our studies reduced confounding methodological effects when evaluating results. We used 991 marked spotted owls in the analysis of apparent survival. Apparent survival probability was higher for adult than for subadult owls. There was little difference in apparent survival between male and female owls. Model-averaged mean estimates of apparent survival probability of adult owls varied from 0.811 ± 0.021 for females at LAS to 0.890 ± 0.016 for males at SKC. Apparent survival increased over time for owls of all age classes at LAS and SIE, for adults at ELD, and for second-year subadults and adults at SKC. The meta-analysis of apparent survival, which included only adult owls, confirmed an increasing trend in survival over time. Survival rates were higher for owls on SKC than on the other study areas. We analyzed data from 1,865 observations of reproductive outcomes for female spotted owls. The proportion of subadult females among all territorial females of known age ranged from 0.00 to 0.25 among study areas and years. The proportion of subadults among female spotted owls was negatively related to reproductive output (no. of young fledged/territorial F owl) for ELD and SIE. Eldorado study area and LAS showed an alternate-year trend in reproductive output, with higher output in even-numbered years. Mean annual reproductive output was 0.988 ± 0.154 for ELD, 0.624 ± 0.140 for LAS, 0.478 ± 0.106 for SIE, and 0.555 ± 0.110 for SKC. Eldorado Study Area exhibited a declining trend and the greatest variation in reproductive output over time, whereas SIE and SKC, which had the lowest reproductive output, had the lowest temporal variation. Meta-analysis confirmed that reproductive output varied among study areas. Reproductive output was highest for adults, followed by second-year subadults, and then by first-year subadults. We used 842 marked subadult and adult owls to estimate population rate of change. Modeling indicated that Λ _t (Λ _t is the finite rate of population change estimated using the reparameterized Jolly–Seber estimator [Pradel 1996]) was either stationary (LAS and SIE) or increasing after an initial decrease (ELD and SKC). Mean estimated Λ _t for the 4 study areas was 1.007 (95% CI = 0.952–1.066) for ELD; 0.973 (95% CI = 0.946–1.001) for LAS; 0.992 (95% CI = 0.966–1.018) for SIE; and 1.006 (95% CI = 0.947–1.068) for SKC. The best meta-analysis model of population trend indicated that Λ varied across time but was similar in trend among the study areas. Our estimates of realized population change (Δ _t ; Franklin et al. 2004), which we estimated as the product 1 λ₃, were based on estimates of Λ _t from individual study areas and did not require estimating annual population size for each study area. Trends represented the proportion of the population size in the first year that remained in each subsequent year. Similar to λ₄ on which they were based, these λ_k-1 showed evidence of decline over the study period for LAS and SIE. The best model indicated recruitment of male and female adult and subadults varied from 0.10 to 0.31 new territorial individuals at time t/number of territorial individuals at time t–1 and similarly among areas. We also conducted a population viability analysis (PVA) based on results of our meta-analysis. This PVA was of limited utility for ELD and SKC study areas because 95% confidence intervals on the probability of decline or increase spanned the interval [0, 1] within 5–10 years. When we restricted inferences to 7 years, estimated probability of a >10% decline for SIE was 0.41 (95% CI = 0.09–0.78); for LAS the probability was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.27–0.94). In contrast, estimated probability of a >10% increase in 7 years for SIE was 0.23 (95% CI = 0.01–0.55) and for LAS was 0.10 (95% CI = 0.00–0.34). For comparisons, we simulated a PVA for a hypothetical population with mean Λ = 1.0 and the same temporal variation as observed in our owl populations. Our PVA suggested that both the SIE and LAS populations had higher probabilities of declining in a 7-year period than increasing but that it would be difficult to determine if a population was in a slight gradual decline. Our analysis and the repository of information on our 4 study populations provide a data-rich template for managers to monitor impacts of future management actions on the owl. Specifically, our data can be used to evaluate the effect of management strategies on spotted owls that are being implemented by the United States Forest Service to reduce the risk of wildfire in the Sierra Nevada ecosystem. Our information also provides baseline information for evaluating the status of the owl for potential listing as a threatened species by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. RESUMEN El búho californiano manchado (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) es la única subespecie de búhos manchados que no está listada como amenazada o en peligro de extinción en el Acta de E.E.U.U. para las Especies en Peligro de Extinción a pesar de las peticiones para que sea incluida en la lista como una especie amenazada. Nosotros realizamos un meta-análisis de los datos de la población de 4 poblaciones del sur de Cascades y de la Sierra Nevada, California desde 1990 hasta 2005 como ayuda a una evaluación de listado hecha por el U.S Fish and Wildlife Service. Nuestras áreas de estudio (de norte a sur) estuvieron localizadas en el Bosque Nacional Lassen (LAS), en el Bosque Nacional Eldorado (ELD), en el Bosque Nacional Sierra (SIE) y en los Parques Nacionales Sequoia y Kings Canyon (SKC). Estas áreas de estudio representaron un amplio espectro del hábitat y de las condiciones de manejo en estas cadenas de montañas. Nosotros calculamos la probabilidad de supervivencia aparente, el volumen de reproducción y el cambio en la tasa de población de los búhos manchados en áreas de estudio individuales y para todas las áreas de estudio combinadas (meta-análisis) utilizando selección de modelos o promediando modelos basados en la estimación de máxima probabilidad. Seguimos un protocolo formal para realizar este análisis que fuera similar a otros meta-análisis con búhos manchados. La consistencia del campo y los métodos analíiticos en nuestros estudios redujeron la confusión de efectos metodológicos al evaluar los resultados. Utilizamos 991 búhos manchados marcados en el análisis de supervivencia aparente. La probabilidad de supervivencia aparente fue más alta para búhos adultos que para subadultos. Hubo poca diferencia en la supervivencia aparente entre hembras y machos. Para los modelos promediados, los cálculos de la media de la probabilidad de supervivencia aparente para búhos adultos tuvo una variación de 0.811 ± 0.021 para hembras en LAS a 0.890 ± 0.016 para machos en SKA. La supervivencia aparente aumentó con el tiempo para los búhos de todos los grupos de edad en LAS y SIE, para adultos en ELD, y para subadultos del segundo año y para adultos en SKC. El meta-análisis de supervivencia aparente, que incluyó únicamente a búhos adultos, confirmó una tendencia al aumento en la supervivencia con el tiempo. Las tasas de supervivencia fueron más altas para los búhos en SKC que en las otras áreas de estudio. Analizamos información de 1.865 observaciones de resultados de reproducciones para búhos manchados hembra. La proporción de hembras subadultas entre todas las hembras territoriales de edad conocida fluctuó de 0.00 a 0.25 a través de las áreas de estudio y de los años. La proporción de subadultos entre los búhos manchados hembra estuvo relacionada negativamente con el volumen de reproducción (número de pichones emplumados por búho hembra territorial) para ELD y SIE. ELD y LAS mostraron una tendencia anual alternada en el volumen de reproducción, con un volumen mayor en los años pares. La media del volumen de reproducción anual fue 0.988 ± 0.154 para ELD, 0.624 ± 0.140 para LAS, 0.478 ± 0.106 para SIE y 0.555 ± 0.154 para SKC. ELD exhibió una tendencia a disminuir y la variación más alta en el volumen de reproducción a través del tiempo; mientras que SIE y SKC, que tuvieron el más bajo volumen de reproducción, tuvieron la menor variación temporal. El meta-análisis confirmó que el volumen de reproducción varió entre las áreas de estudio. El volumen de reproducción fue más alto para adultos, seguido por subadultos del segundo año, y luego por subadultos del primer año. Nosotros utilizamos 842 búhos marcados, adultos y subadultos, para calcular el índice de cambio de la población. La selección de modelos indicó que Λ _t era, o relativamente fija (LAS y SIE) o aumentaba después de una disminución inicial (ELD y SKC). La media calculada Λ _t para las cuatro áreas de estudio fue: 1.007 (95% CI = 0.952–1.066) para ELD; 0.973 (95% CI = 0.946–1.001) para LAS; 0.992 (95% CI = 0.966–1.018) para SIE; y 1.006 (95% CI = 0.947–1.068) para SKC. El mejor modelo de meta-análisis de la tendencia de población indicó que Λ variaba con el tiempo pero que era una tendencia similar entre las áreas de estudio. Nuestros cálculos sobre el cambio de población realizado (Δ _t ) se basaron en los cálculos de Λ _t de las áreas de estudio individuales y no requirieron calcular el tamaño de la población anual para cada área de estudio. Las tendencias representaron la proporción del tamaño de la población en el primer año que permaneció en cada año subsiguiente. De manera similar a λ_t, en la que se basaron, éstas Δ_t mostraron evidencia de disminución durante el período de estudio para LAS y SIE. El mejor modelo de reclutamiento indicado, el reclutamiento de búhos machos y hembras, adultos y subadultos, varió de 0.10 a 0.31 individuos territoriales nuevos al tiempo t por el número de individuos territoriales al tiempo t–1 y de manera similar entre las otras áreas. También realizamos un análisis de viabilidad de población (PVA) basado en los resultados de nuestro meta-análisis. Este análisis PVA fue de limitada utilidad para las áreas de estudio ELD y SKC porque el 95% de intervalos de confiabilidad en la probabilidad de disminución o aumento extendió el intervalo [0, 1] de 5–10 años. Cuando restringimos las inferencias a 7 años, la probabilidad estimada de a >10% de disminución para SIE fue 0.41 (95% CI = 0.09–0.78); para LAS la probabilidad fue 0.64 (95% CI = 0.27–0.94). En contraste, la probabilidad estimada de un >10% de aumento en 7 años para SIE fue 0.23 (95% CI = 0.01–0.55) y para LAS fue 0.10 (95% CI = 0.00–0.34). Para comparar, simulamos un PVA para una población hipotética con una media Λ = 1.0, y con la misma variación temporal observada en nuestras poblaciones de búhos. Nuestro PVA sugirió que ambas poblaciones SIE y LAS tenían, en un período de 7 años, mayores probabilidades de disminución que de aumento, pero que sería muy difícil determinar si alguna de las poblaciones estaba en una ligera disminución gradual. El depósito de información de nuestras 4 áreas de estudio provee una plantilla rica en información para que los administradores monitoreen los impactos de acciones futuras en el manejo de los búhos (por ejemplo, nuevas estrategias de manejo del Plan de Sierra Nevada Forest). También provee evidencia importante para evaluar el estatus del búho para su potencial inclusión en el listado de especies amenazadas. RÉSUMÉ Le hibou tacheté californien (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) est la seule sous-espèce de hibou tacheté ne figurant pas sur la liste des animaux menacés ou vulnérables sous la Loi des Espèces en Danger des Etats-Unis malgré des pétitions pour l'inscrire sur cette liste en tant que sous-espèce menacée. Nous avons effectué une méta-analyse des données de population pour 4 populations dans le sud des Cascades et dans la Sierra Nevada, en Californie de 1990 à 2005 pour aider une évaluation de leur statut établie par les Services des Eaux et Forêts des Etats-Unis. Nos aires d'étude (du nord au sud) étaient dans la forêt nationale Lassen (LAS), la forêt nationale Eldorado (ELD), la forêt nationale Sierra (SIE), et les parcs nationaux Sequoia et Kings Canyon (SKC). Ces aires d'étude représentaient un large échantillon des conditions de l'habitat et de la gestion dans ces chaînes de montagnes. Nous avons estimé la probabilité de survie apparente, le succès de reproduction, et le taux de changement de la population pour les hiboux tachetés dans chaque aire d'étude individuelle et dans toutes les aires réunies (méta–analyse) en utilisant la sélection de modèles ou le calcul de la moyenne des modèles basé sur une estimation du maximum de vraisemblance. Pour effectuer cette analyse nous avons suivi un protocole rigoureux similaire à d'autres méta-analyses de hiboux tachetés. La cohérence des observations de terrain et des méthodes analytiques entre ces études a réduit les effets méthodologiques confondants lors des évaluations des résultats. Nous avons utilisé 991 hiboux tachetés marqués dans l'analyse de survie apparente. La probabilité de survie apparente a été plus élevée pour les hiboux adultes que pour les sous-adultes. Il y a eu peu de différence pour ce qui est de la survie apparente entre les hiboux mâles et femelles. La moyenne des estimations de la probabilité de survie apparente des hiboux adultes basée sur la moyenne des modèles a varié entre 0,811 ± 0,021 pour les hiboux femelles à LAS et 0,890 ± 0,016 pour les hiboux mâles à SKC. La survie apparente a augmenté avec le temps pour les hiboux de toutes les classes d'âge à LAS et SIE, pour les adultes à ELD, et pour les sous-adultes de deux ans et les adultes à SKC. La méta-analyse de survie apparente, qui comprenait seulement des hiboux adultes, a confirmé une tendance croissante de survie avec le temps. Les taux de survie étaient plus élevés pour les hiboux de SKC que pour ceux des autres aires d'étude. Nous avons analysé les données obtenues à partir de 1 865 observations de succès de reproduction de hiboux tachetées femelles. La proportion des hiboux femelles sous-adultes parmi toutes les femelles territoriales d'àge connu a varié de 0,00 à 0,25 selon les aires et les années d'étude. La proportion des sousadultes parmi les hiboux tachetés femelles a été négativement corrélée avec le succès de reproduction (nombre de jeunes hiboux par femelle territoriale) pour ELD et SIE. La forêt nationale Eldorado et la forêt nationale Lassen ont montré une tendance à alterner selon un cycle biennal pour ce qui est du succès de reproduction, avec un taux plus élevé pendant les années paires. La moyenne du succès de reproduction annuel était de 0,988 ± 0,154 pour ELD, de 0,624 ± 0,140 pour LAS, de 0,478 ± 0,106 pour SIE, et de 0,555 ± 0,110 pour SKD. La forêt nationale Eldorado a montré une tendance décroissante ainsi que la plus grande variation dans le succès de reproduction avec le temps, alors que SIE et SKC, qui ont eu le succès de reproduction le plus bas, ont connu la variation temporelle la plus basse. La méta-analyse a confirmé que le succès de reproduction variait selon les aires d'étude. Le succès de reproduction a été le plus élevé pour les adultes, puis pour les sous-adultes de deux ans, et ensuite pour les sous-adultes d'un an. Nous avons utilisé 842 hiboux marqués, adultes et sous-adultes, pour estimer le taux de changement de la population. La modélisation a indiqué que Λ _t était soit stationnaire (LAS et SIE), soit croissant après une baisse initiale (ELD et SKC). La moyenne estimée Λ _t pour les 4 aires d'étude était: 1,007 (95% IC = 0,952–1,066) pour ELD; 0,973 (95% IC = 0,946–1,001) pour LAS; 0,992 (95% IC = 0,966–1,018) pour SIE; et 1,006 (95% IC = 0,947–1,068) pour SKC. Le meilleur modèle de méta-analyse pour la tendance de la population a indiqué que Λ variait selon le temps mais suivait la même tendance selon les aires d'étude. Nos estimations du changement de population réalisé (Δ _t ) étaient fondées sur les estimations de Λ _t des aires d'étude individuelles et n'ont pas nécessité d'estimation de la taille annuelle de la population pour chaque aire d'étude. Les tendances représentaient la proportion de la taille de la population pendant la première année qui s'est maintenue chaque année subséquente. De même que λ_t sur lesquels ils étaient fondés, ces δ_t ont apporté des preuves de déclin pendant la période d'étude pour LAS et SIE. Le meilleur modèle a indiqué que le recrutement des hiboux adultes et sous-adultes mâles et femelles variait de 0,10 à 0,31 nouveaux individus territoriaux à un temps t pour un nombre d'individus territoriaux à un temps t-1 et qu'il en était de même dans chaque aire. Nous avons également procédé à une analyse de viabilité de la population (AVP) fondée sur les résultats de notre méta-analyse. Cette AVP a été d'une utilité limitée pour les aires d'étude ELD et SKC parce que les intervalles de confiance de 95% sur la probabilité du déclin ou de la croissance couvraient l'intervalle [0, 1] sur une période de 5 à 10 ans. Lorsque nous avons réduit les inférences à 7 ans, la probabilité estimée d'un déclin >10% pour SIE était de 0,41 (95% IC = 0,09–0,78); pour LAS la probabilité était de 0,64 (95% IC = 0,27–0,94). Al'opposé, la probabilité estimée d'une croissance >10% en 7 ans pour SIE était de 0,23 (95% IC = 0,01–0,55) et pour LAS elle était de 0,10 (95% IC = 0,00–0,34). Afin de comparer, nous avons simulé une AVP pour une population hypothétique ayant une moyenne Λ = 1,0 et la même variation temporelle que celle observée dans nos populations de hiboux. Notre AVP a suggéré que les populations de SIE et de LAS avaient de plus grandes probabilités de déclin que de croissance sur une période de 7 ans, mais qu'il serait difficile de déterminer si une population présentait un léger déclin graduel. La collecte des informations pour nos 4 aires d'étude foumit aux personnes chargées de la gestion un modèle riche de données permettant de suivre l'impact sur les hiboux des actions de gestion à l'avenir (par exemple, les nouvelles stratégies de gestion du Plan pour la Forêt de Sierra Nevada). Cette collecte foumit également des preuves importantes afin d'évaluer le statut du hibou pour une classification potentielle sur la liste des espèces menacées.     

Tree-ring growth varies with climate and stand density in a red pine plantation forest in the Great Lakes region of North America

Red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) was widely planted across the Great Lakes region of North America in the early 20th century to restore tree cover to degraded forest and agricultural lands. In this study, a dendrochronological assessment of radial growth response to climate was conducted in an 82-year-old, previously thinned red pine plantation forest in southern Ontario, Canada. Climate-growth relationships were analyzed at multi-monthly and annual time scales using a 72-year residual growth chronology (1942–2013). Warmer temperatures and periodic drought during the current and previous growing seasons were associated with decreased growth, while higher precipitation during the early part of the current growing season was associated with increased growth. Moving interval correlation analysis of long-term trends indicated that climate-growth relations were temporally unstable due to thinning and variation in climate over the length of the chronology. The correlation between climate and growth was stronger when stand density was relatively high and diminished in the two decades following thinning. These results indicate that growth of red pine plantations near the species’ southern range limit may be much reduced if exposed to a warmer, drier future climate and that periodic thinning can help mitigate the impacts of future climate change on these plantations.