Occupancy Models of Nesting-Season Habitat Associations of Red-Shouldered Hawks in Central Minnesota

ABSTRACT Red-shouldered hawks (Buteo lineatus) are a species of special conservation concern in much of the Great Lakes region, and apparent population declines are thought to be primarily due to habitat loss and alteration. To evaluate red-shouldered hawk-habitat associations during the nesting season and at the landscape scale, we conducted repeated call-broadcast surveys in central Minnesota, USA, across 3 landscapes that represented a range of landscape conditions as a result of differing management practices. In 2004, we conducted repeated call-broadcast surveys at 131 locations in 2 study areas, and in 2005, we surveyed 238 locations in 3 study areas. We developed models relating habitat characteristics at 2 spatial scales to red-shouldered hawk occupancy and assessed support for these models in an information-theoretic framework. Overall, a small proportion of nonforest (grass, clear-cut area, forest <5 yr old), and a large proportion of mature deciduous forest (>40 yr old), had the strongest association with red-shouldered hawk occupancy (proportion of sites occupied) at both spatial scales. The landscape conditions we examined appeared to contain a habitat transition important to red-shouldered hawks. We found, in predominately forest landscapes, the amount of open habitat was most strongly associated with red-shouldered hawk occupancy, but in landscapes that included slightly less mature forest and more extensive open habitats, the extent of mature deciduous forest was most strongly associated with red-shouldered hawk occupancy. Our results suggested that relatively small (<5 ha) patches of open habitat (clear-cuts) in otherwise forested landscapes did not appear to influence red-shouldered hawk occupancy. Whereas, in an otherwise similar landscape, with smaller amounts of mature deciduous forest and larger (>15 ha) patches of open habitat, red-shouldered hawk occupancy decreased, suggesting a threshold in landscape composition, based on both the amount of mature forest and open area, is important in managing forest landscapes for red-shouldered hawks. Our results show that during the nesting season, red-shouldered hawks in central Minnesota occupy at similar rates landscapes with different habitat compositions resulting from different management strategies and that management strategies that create small openings may not negatively affect red-shouldered hawk occupancy.     

Modeling Habitat Occupancy of Orange-Crowned Warblers in Managed Forests of Oregon and Washington,USA

Abstract: As part of a habitat management planning process for commercially managed forests, we developed and evaluated habitat occupancy models for the orange-crowned warbler (Vermivora celata), a conservation priority species in Oregon and Washington, USA. We used repeated surveys to classify a random sample of managed conifer stands at the McKenzie, PeEll, and Tolt study sites in western Oregon and Washington as either occupied or unoccupied during 1994–1995. We modeled occupancy and detection probabilities as a function of stand-level habitat characteristics subject to manipulation by management activities. The best-fitting model indicated that orange-crowned warblers were 2 times (95% CI: 0.99-5.1) and 3.8 times (95% CI: 1.5–6.1) as likely to occupy a stand for every 5% increase in evergreen shrub cover and 5-m decrease in canopy lift (ht to lowest live branch), respectively. Management actions that maintain evergreen shrub cover >10% and permit development of low canopy lifts (4–10 m) should promote habitat occupancy by the orange-crowned warbler in commercial forests in western Oregon and Washington.     

Experimental Investigation of Observation Error in Anuran Call Surveys

ABSTRACT Occupancy models that account for imperfect detection are often used to monitor anuran and songbird species occurrence. However, presence—absence data arising from auditory detections may be more prone to observation error (e.g., false-positive detections) than are sampling approaches utilizing physical captures or sightings of individuals. We conducted realistic, replicated field experiments using a remote broadcasting system to simulate simple anuran call surveys and to investigate potential factors affecting observation error in these studies. Distance, time, ambient noise, and observer abilities were the most important factors explaining false-negative detections. Distance and observer ability were the best overall predictors of false-positive errors, but ambient noise and competing species also affected error rates for some species. False-positive errors made up 5% of all positive detections, with individual observers exhibiting false-positive rates between 0.5% and 14%. Previous research suggests false-positive errors of these magnitudes would induce substantial positive biases in standard estimators of species occurrence, and we recommend practices to mitigate for false positives when developing occupancy monitoring protocols that rely on auditory detections. These recommendations include additional observer training, limiting the number of target species, and establishing distance and ambient noise thresholds during surveys.     

Occupancy modeling of ruffed grouse in the Black Hills National Forest

Ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus) are a popular game bird and the management indicator species for quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) in the Black Hills National Forest (BHNF), which requires development of a robust monitoring protocol to evaluate trends in ruffed grouse populations. We used roadside drumming surveys in spring 2007 and 2008 to estimate ruffed grouse occupancy and detection probabilities in the BHNF while simultaneously assessing the influence of sampling and site covariates on these processes. Ruffed grouse occupancy estimates were constant between spring 2007 and 2008 (Ψ = 0.12, SE = 0.03) and were positively influenced by the amount of aspen surrounding the site. Detection probability estimates were constant between spring 2007 and 2008 (p = 0.27, SE = 0.06) and were influenced by survey date in a quadratic form and negatively influenced by wind speed and time of the survey. Collectively, our results demonstrated that ruffed grouse occupancy and detection probabilities in the BHNF were low. Occupancy could be increased by increasing the extent of aspen. To improve monitoring efficiency and maximize probability of detecting ruffed grouse, ruffed grouse monitoring should be conducted during the peak of drumming (mid-May), during favorable weather conditions such as low wind speeds and little precipitation, and during early morning, near sunrise. © 2010 The Wildlife Society.     

Estimating regional landbird populations from enhanced North American Breeding Bird Surveys

Estimating the size of bird populations is central to effective conservation planning and prudent management. I updated estimated regional bird populations for the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi using data from 275 North American Breeding Bird Surveys from 2009 to 2013. However, regional bird populations estimated from count surveys of breeding birds may be biased due to lack of empirical knowledge of the distance at which a species is effectively detected and the probability of detecting a species if it is present. I used data recorded within two distance classes (0–50 m and >50–400 m) and three 1‐min time intervals on 130 Breeding Bird Surveys to estimate detection probability and effective detection distance for 77 species. Incorporating these empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance resulted in estimated regional populations for these species that were markedly greater than regional populations estimated without species‐specific estimates of detection parameters. Using the same Breeding Bird Survey data, I also estimated probability of site occupancy for 66 species and extrapolated this to the proportion of area occupied in the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi. I combined the area occupied with the reported range of breeding territory size for 54 species to obtain independent estimates of regional bird populations. Although the true population of these species is unknown, estimated populations that incorporated empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance were more likely to be within the range of independently estimated, occupancy‐based, regional population estimates than were population estimates that lacked empirical detection and distance information.     

Occupancy and detectability of Snowy Plovers in western Utah: an application to a low density population

Occupancy modeling can be used to identify habitat characteristics associated with species occurrence. Additionally, occupancy sampling can provide measures of detection probability, increasing confidence in monitoring efforts. Little is known about the distribution and habitat preferences of a small population of Snowy Plovers (Charadrius nivosus) in western Utah. We conducted a study to estimate occupancy and detection probability of Snowy Plovers in western Utah during 2011 and 2012. We made repeated visits to randomly selected survey plots during the breeding period, sampling 84 64‐ha plots in 2011 and 100 64‐ha plots in 2012 and recording the number of adults and habitat characteristics in each plot. We then modeled the relationship between detection, occupancy, and covariates that included distance to water, distance to roads, land cover types, and characteristics of the vegetation. We also included covariates for observer, Julian date, temperature, cloud cover, and wind speed when modeling detection probability. Detection probability was high (0.74, 95% CI = 0.57–0.86) and positively influenced by temperature. Occupancy of 64‐ha plots was low (0.27, 95% CI = 0.18–0.39) and did not vary by year. Occupancy of Snowy Plovers was negatively associated with distance to water (β = ?0.62 ± 0.31, 95% CI = ?1.23 to ?0.01) and percent shrub cover (β = ?0.28 ± 0.02, 95% CI = ?0.58 to ?0.01). Land cover types also influenced plot occupancy. Management actions that conserve shallow water and adjacent habitats or minimize disturbance in these areas are likely to have conservation benefits for Snowy Plovers where water is scarce. Because our detection probabilities were high, investigators involved in future monitoring efforts can achieve reasonable precision with limited revisits to sample plots.     

Site Occupancy Dynamics of Northern Spotted Owls in the Eastern Cascades,Washington, USA, 1990–2003

Abstract: Northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) have received intense research and management interest since their listing as a threatened species by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service in 1990. Several spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) response variables have been examined in various investigations, but recent advances in statistical modeling permit evaluations of temporal and spatial variability in site occupancy, local-extinction, and colonization probabilities while incorporating imperfect detection probabilities. Following recent work by other researchers on site occupancy dynamics of spotted owls in Oregon, USA, we evaluated temporal variability of detection, occupancy, local-extinction, and colonization probabilities for spotted owls, as well as potential influences of barred owl (Strix varia) presence on these parameters. We used spotted owl survey data collected from 1990 to 2003 on a study area in the eastern Cascades Mountains, Washington, USA, to compare competing occupancy models from Program PRESENCE using Akaike's Information Criterion. Detection probabilities for individual spotted owls ranged from 0.54 to 0.80 if barred owls were not detected during the survey season and from 0.19 to 0.71 if barred owls were detected during the survey season. Pair detection probabilities ranged from 0.27 to 0.67 if barred owls were not detected during an individual survey and from 0.09 to 0.36 if barred owls were detected during an individual survey. During the study, site occupancy probabilities for spotted owl pairs declined by approximately 50%. For all spotted owls, both singles and pairs, site occupancy probabilities declined moderately during the study. Barred owl presence was negatively associated with spotted owl detection probabilities, and it had a positive association with local-extinction probabilities for all spotted owls, both singles and pairs. Given that our study area has supported higher densities of barred owls for longer periods than other study areas, our results may provide insight into how barred owls have influenced spotted owl site occupancy dynamics in adjacent British Columbia, Canada, or will influence spotted owl site occupancy dynamics in Oregon and California, USA, in the future.     

Site occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls in managed interior Douglas fir forests,California, USA, 1995–2009

Northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) have received intense research and management interest since their listing as a threatened species by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service in 1990. For example, public and private forest managers in the Pacific Northwest, USA, conduct surveys to determine presence or absence of spotted owls prior to timber harvest operations. However, although recently developed statistical methods have been applied to presence–absence data collected during research surveys, the effectiveness of operational surveys for detecting spotted owls and evaluating site occupancy dynamics is not known. We used spotted owl survey data collected from 1995 to 2009 on a study area in interior northern California, USA, to evaluate competing occupancy models from Program PRESENCE using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). During 1,282 individual surveys, we recorded 480 spotted owl detections (37.4%) and 13 barred owl (1.0%) detections. Average per visit detection probability (85% CL) for single and paired spotted owls was 0.93 (0.90–0.96) for informed daytime, stand-based searches and 0.47 (0.43–0.51) for nighttime, station-based surveys (estimated from the best model); the average per visit detection probability from the null model was 0.67 (0.64–0.70). Average pair-only detection probabilities were 0.86 (0.81–0.90) for informed daytime, stand-based searches and 0.23 (0.18–0.29) for nighttime, station-based surveys; the average per visit detection probability from the null model was 0.63 (0.58–0.68). Site occupancy for any owl declined from 0.81 (0.59–0.93) in 1995 to 0.50 (0.39–0.60) in 2009; pair occupancy declined from 0.75 (0.56–0.87) to 0.46 (0.31–0.61). Our results suggest that a combination of 1 informed stand and 2 station-based operational surveys can support determinations of spotted owl site status (either a single or a pair) at desired levels of confidence. However, our information was collected in an area where barred owls were rarely detected. Surveys conducted in areas that support well-established barred owl populations are likely to be less effective for determining presence or absence of spotted owls and may require more surveys and/or different survey methods to determine site status with confidence. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Relationship Between Avifaunal Occupancy and Riparian Vegetation in the Central Great Basin (Nevada, U.S.A.)

In western North America, riparian vegetation is being lost in response to changes in land use and climate. We examined the relationship between obligate riparian species of songbirds and environmental and riparian habitat factors in three mountain ranges in the central Great Basin (Nevada, U.S.A.). We estimated patterns of occupancy, colonization, and local extinction for three species detected during the breeding seasons of 2001–2006: MacGillivray's Warbler ( Oporornis tolmiei ), Broad-tailed Hummingbird ( Selasphorus platycercus ), and Song Sparrow ( Melospiza melodia ). We used model selection and multimodel inference to identify functional relationships between the occupancy of each species and multiple habitat variables, including the structure and composition of riparian vegetation. Among all years and species, we observed considerable variation in estimates of detection probability. For MacGillivray's Warbler, annual occupancy rates were relatively constant. Occupancy rates for Broad-tailed Hummingbird and Song Sparrow increased during the first 3–4 years of our study and then decreased. Each species experienced its highest rate of local extinction during 2005. Different components of riparian vegetation were good predictors of occupancy, colonization, and local extinction for each species. Typically, elevation and latitude also were strong predictors. Establishing functional relationships between avifauna and vegetation is essential to predicting how land-cover change may affect the occupancy of riparian areas and other habitats for birds. The conservation of breeding birds in riparian areas in the central Great Basin is more likely to succeed if the quality of their understory habitat as well as the canopy is maintained and restored.     

The importance of including imperfect detection models in eDNA experimental design

Environmental DNA (eDNA) is DNA that has been isolated from field samples, and it is increasingly used to infer the presence or absence of particular species in an ecosystem. However, the combination of sampling procedures and subsequent molecular amplification of eDNA can lead to spurious results. As such, it is imperative that eDNA studies include a statistical framework for interpreting eDNA presence/absence data. We reviewed published literature for studies that utilized eDNA where the species density was known and compared the probability of detecting the focal species to the sampling and analysis protocols. Although biomass of the target species and the volume per sample did not impact detectability, the number of field replicates and number of samples from each replicate were positively related to detection. Additionally, increased number of PCR replicates and increased primer specificity significantly increased detectability. Accordingly, we advocate for increased use of occupancy modelling as a method to incorporate effects of sampling effort and PCR sensitivity in eDNA study design. Based on simulation results and the hierarchical nature of occupancy models, we suggest that field replicates, as opposed to molecular replicates, result in better detection probabilities of target species.     

Cost and Precision Functions for Aerial Quadrat Surveys: a Case Study of Ring-Necked Ducks in Minnesota

ABSTRACT Cost considerations may be as important as precision when making survey-design choices, and the ability to accurately estimate survey costs will be essential if survey budgets become more constrained. We used data from a survey of ring-necked ducks (Aythya collaris) to illustrate how simple distance formulas can be used to construct a cost function for aerial quadrat surveys. Our cost function provided reasonable estimates of effort (hr) and costs, and allowed us to evaluate plot-size choices in terms of expected cost-precision tradeoffs. Although factors influencing costs in wildlife surveys can be complicated, we believe that cost functions deserve more attention and should be routinely considered in conjunction with traditional power analyses.     

Occupancy of Random Plots by White-Tailed and Gunnison's Prairie Dogs

ABSTRACT Areas occupied by white-tailed prairie dogs (WTPD; Cynomys leucurus) and Gunnison's prairie dogs (GPD; C. gunnisoni) are not well-known in Colorado (USA) and elsewhere. Suitable methodology for monitoring changes in populations of WTPD and GPD over broad areas also has not been well established. We evaluated occupancy modeling methodology to establish baseline occupancy rates for WTPD and GPD in Colorado. We estimated that WTPD occupied 24.1% (SE = 12.8) of 47,710 0.25-km² plots and GPD occupied 7.5% (SE = 1.3) of 158,225 0.25-km² plots in Colorado during 2004 and 2005. Areas reported as colonies in the Colorado Division of Wildlife's database were not good predictors of WTPD and GPD occupancy. Occupancy rates were highest for GPD at intermediate elevations. We estimated detection probabilities for surveys from the ground of 0.760 (SE = 0.042) for WTPD and 0.786 (SE = 0.060) for GPD. Probability of detection for WTPD improved with lower temperature and earlier Julian date, whereas no covariates improved detection rates for GPD. We recommend that wildlife managers use occupancy monitoring to establish status and trends in populations of WTPD and GPD across their range.     

A pre-European settlement pollen–climate calibration set for Minnesota, USA: developing tools for palaeoclimatic reconstructions

Aim The bias in modern North American pollen assemblages by landscape disturbance from Euro‐American settlement has long been overlooked in the construction of pollen–climate transfer functions. Our aim is to examine this problem and to develop an unbiased pre‐settlement pollen–climate transfer function, and to test its performance and inference power in comparison with commonly used techniques. Location Minnesota, USA, is of palaeoclimatic interest because within the state are located two continental‐scale ecotones, controlled by temperature and available moisture. Shifts of these ecotones can be tracked using palaeoecological techniques. Methods Using a data set of pre‐settlement pollen assemblages from 133 lakes, which were coupled to climate data from the earliest instrumental records (i.e. 1895–1924), a pre‐settlement pollen–climate data set was developed that lacked the influence of anthropogenic landscape disturbance. A corresponding modern pollen data set (from lake sediment core tops) and a modern climate (i.e. 1961–90) data set were also developed. The two pollen sets were compared to demonstrate the effects of landscape disturbance from human activities. Ordination (redundancy analysis with Monte Carlo permutation tests) and regression techniques (generalized linear modelling) were used to establish the relationships between the early instrumental climate variables and pre‐settlement pollen assemblages and individual taxa, respectively. Transfer functions for the most suitable climate variables (i.e. those forming a minimal set of non‐collinear climate variables that explained the greatest amount of pollen variance) were developed from the pre‐settlement data set using bootstrapping. Results Comparison of pre‐settlement pollen and modern pollen showed an over‐representation of Ambrosia, Chenopodiaceae and Poaceae, and an under‐representation of arboreal taxa (e.g. Pinus, Quercus, Ostrya) in the modern assemblages. Not surprisingly, ordination and regression techniques showed a strong relationship between the early instrumental climate variables and pre‐settlement pollen assemblages and taxa. Transfer functions were developed for May and February mean temperature and available moisture. Pre‐settlement transfer functions substantially improved the root mean squared error by 37–72% in comparison with modern transfer functions inferring pre‐settlement conditions, suggesting that the modern transfer functions have poorer predictive abilities. Main conclusions For climatic reconstructions, there can be a serious distortion of inferences based solely on modern pollen–climate data sets in regions where anthropogenic landscape disturbance has occurred. By using historical climate data, coupled with pre‐disturbance pollen assemblages, robust transfer functions for temperature and effective moisture were developed.     

Effectiveness of Lethal,Directed Wolf-Depredation Control in Minnesota

Abstract: Wolf (Canis lupus) depredations on livestock in Minnesota, USA, are an economic problem for many livestock producers, and depredating wolves are lethally controlled. We sought to determine the effectiveness of lethal control through the analysis of data from 923 government-verified wolf depredations from 1979 to 1998. We analyzed the data by 1) assessing the correlations between the number of wolves killed in response to depredations with number of depredations the following year at state and local levels, and 2) the time to the next depredation. No analysis indicated that trapping wolves substantially reduced the following year's depredations at state or local levels. However, more specific analyses indicated that in certain situations, killing wolves was more effective than no action (i.e., not trapping). For example, trapping and killing adult males decreased the re-depredation risk. At sheep farms, killing wolves was generally effective. Attempting to trap, regardless of the results, seemed more effective at reducing depredations than not trapping, suggesting that mere human activity near depredation sites might deter future depredations. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):778–784; 2008)     

The use of infrared‐triggered cameras for surveying phasianids in Sichuan Province,China

We report on the use of infrared‐triggered cameras as an effective tool to survey phasianid populations in Wanglang and Wolong Nature Reserves, China. Surveys at 183 camera‐trapping sites recorded 30 bird species, including nine phasianids (one grouse and eight pheasant species). Blood Pheasant Ithaginis cruentus and Temminck’s Tragopan Tragopan temminckii were the phasianids most often detected at both reserves and were found within the mid‐elevation range (2400–3600 m asl). The occupancy rate and detection probability of both species were examined using an occupancy model relative to eight sampling covariates and three detection covariates. The model estimates of occupancy for Blood Pheasant (0.30) and Temminck’s Tragopan (0.14) are close to the naïve estimates based on camera detections (0.27 and 0.13, respectively). The estimated detection probability during a 5‐day period was 0.36 for Blood Pheasant and 0.30 for Temminck’s Tragopan. The daily activity patterns for these two species were assessed from the time/date stamps on the photographs and sex ratios calculated for Blood Pheasant (152M : 72F) and Temminck’s Tragopan (48M : 21F). Infrared cameras are valuable for surveying these reclusive species and our protocol is applicable to research or monitoring of phasianids.     

Occupancy patterns of the introduced,predatory sugar glider in Tasmanian forests

Introduced mammals pose serious threats to native island fauna, and understanding their distribution is fundamental to evaluating their conservation impact. Introduced sugar gliders (Petaurus breviceps) are the main predator of critically endangered swift parrots (Lathamus discolor) on mainland Tasmania. We surveyed sugar glider occurrence over ~800 km² in an important swift parrot breeding area, the Southern Forests. During 4–5 visits per site, we used call broadcast of predatory owls to elicit sugar glider alarm calls and surveyed 100 sites during February/March 2016. Naïve occupancy by sugar gliders was high (0.79), as was detectability (0.52 ± 0.03 SE), resulting in a cumulative detection probability of effectively 1. Occupancy modelling indicated a positive effect of the proportion of mature forest cover on occupancy. The best model, based on AIC scores, included the proportion of mature forest cover within a 500 m radius with constant detectability. Our study revealed surprisingly high rates of occupancy of available forest habitat throughout the heavily logged study area, such that even when mature forest cover was <10%, sugar glider occupancy was >0.5; where forest cover approached 100% (i.e. in the best quality breeding habitat for swift parrots), occupancy by sugar gliders approached 1. Our results reveal that sugar gliders are widespread across the study area which may be indicative of occupancy rates elsewhere in the breeding range of the critically endangered swift parrot. As a result, the risk of predation by sugar gliders for small birds may be widespread across logged Tasmanian forests. Additional work to identify whether population densities of sugar gliders vary with forest cover (and whether this may impact predation likelihood) is critical to understanding the conservation consequences of deforestation in the breeding range of the swift parrot.     

Coarse-Scale Distribution Surveys and Occurrence Probability Modeling for Wolverine in Interior Alaska

ABSTRACT We determined wolverine (Gulo gulo) distribution and occurrence probabilities using aerial surveys and hierarchical spatial modeling in a 180,000-km² portion of Interior Alaska, USA. During 8 February-12 March 2006, we surveyed 149 of 180 1,000-km² sample units for wolverine tracks. We observed wolverine tracks in 99 (66.4%) sample units. Wolverine detection probability was ≥69% throughout the survey period. Posterior occurrence probabilities of whether a wolverine track occurred in a sample unit was dependent on survey timing, number of transects flown, number of neighboring sample units with detected tracks, percentage of the sample unit with elevation ≤305 m, and human influences. Our model indicated strong evidence of occurrence (>0.80) in 72% of the 180 survey units, strong evidence of absence (<0.20) in 12%, and weak evidence of occurrence or absence (0.20–0.80) in 16%. Wolverine area of occupancy made up 83% of the study area. Simulations illustrated that 2–4 survey routes were necessary for the survey technique to provide strong evidence of wolverine presence or absence in Interior Alaska if a track was not identified along the first route. The necessary number of survey routes depends on the occurrence probability in a sample unit. We provided managers with a map of wolverine distribution in Interior Alaska and an efficient and lower-cost method to detect coarse-scale changes in wolverine distribution. Our technique was effective in both Interior Alaska and Ontario, Canada, suggesting it would be effective throughout most of the boreal forest range of wolverines where tracks can be readily observed from the air. The technique requires a certain skill level in recognizing tracks; it is essential that tracks are identified correctly and training may be necessary depending on surveyor experience.     

Optimising camera trap surveys for the Carpentarian Pseudantechinus (Pseudantechinus mimulus) in northwest Queensland

The Carpentarian Pseudantechinus (Pseudantechinus mimulus) is a poorly studied dasyurid marsupial that inhabits rocky outcrops in the Mount Isa Inlier bioregion in Queensland and the Gulf Coastal and Gulf Fall and Uplands bioregions in the Northern Territory. It is readily detected by passive infrared triggered camera traps (‘camera traps’). Camera trap data can be used to develop detection probability estimates from which activity patterns can be inferred, but no effort has previously been made to determine changes in the detectability of P. mimulus throughout the year. We undertook a 13-month baited camera trap survey across nine sampling periods at 60 locations of known historic presence or nearby suitable habitat to assess the change in detection rates and detection probabilities of P. mimulus across a year. Detection probabilities were calculated from camera trap data within a single-species, multi-season occupancy framework to determine optimal survey timing. Detection probability data were used to calculate the likelihood of false absences to determine optimal survey duration. We recorded 2493 detections of P. mimulus over 10 966 camera days. Detection probability ranged from 0.009 to 0.179 and was significantly higher from April to October than from November to March. The likelihood of false absences varied by sampling period and desired level of confidence. We find that camera trap surveys for P. mimulus are best conducted from April to October, but optimal survey duration is dependent upon the time of year and desired level of confidence that an observed absence from a given site reflects a true absence at that site. Attaining a minimum of 80% confidence of absence requires as few as 9 days of survey effort in May to 16 days of survey effort in October.     

Isozyme characterization of genetic diversity in Minnesota populations of purple loosestrife,Lythrum salicaria (lythraceae)

Starch gel electrophoresis of plant proteins was used to identify purple loosestrife (Lythrum spp.) cultivars and weedy populations. Preliminary determinations were made as to what degree weedy loosestrife populations were related (or genetically similar) to populations of L. alatum, L. virgatum, and horticultural cultivars. Cluster analysis of the data indicated that native L. alatum was genetically different from all populations of purple loosestrife and cultivars examined. The L. salicaria and L. virgatum cultivars, as groups, were not genetically distinguishable from the weedy populations analyzed. Seven cultivars of L. salicaria origin analyzed as a group were not distinguishable from the eight cultivars of L. virgatum origin, indicating that separation by cultivar origin may not be feasible. While the two “groups” were not distinguishable, most individual cultivars could be distinguished from one another by isozyme phenotype. Genetic variation was high within populations of weedy purple loosestrife but low among populations, which is characteristic of polyploid, perennial plant species that are widely distributed. Geographic location did not consistently correlate with genetic similarity.