Estimating roe deer abundance from pellet group counts in Spain: An assessment of methods suitable for Mediterranean woodlands

Despite of the generalized expansion of wild ungulates in Europe, roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) is experiencing contrasted population trends; it is expanding in some regions while declining in others likely due to the expansion of other deer species. In both extremes, reliable methods to estimate population abundance are required. We evaluated different methods of estimating deer abundance in Mediterranean woodlands based on pellet group counts. Distance Sampling applied to pellet counts and a new easier and cost-effective method based on strip-variable transect counts (FST) were assessed comparing their estimates (pellet group density) with the abundance indices obtained from traditionally used reference methods (faecal standing crop) in 61 localities (n = 183 surveys). The average roe deer density estimated from faecal standing crop was 5.56 ± 0.75 (range 0.01–20.74) deer per 100 ha. Distance Sampling and FST estimates correlated with reference methods. As a first conclusion it may be noted that all indirect methods used here can be used to estimate roe deer abundance. The selection of a given method based on pellet counts to estimate roe deer population abundance should take into account the specific objectives of the research, resources available, and the timescale in which the information is required. Among them, Distance Sampling may be used when human resources and skills are enough but FST is a rapid and efficient alternative to estimate pellet group density when they are not.     

Comparison of survey methods for monitoring Clark's Nutcrackers and predicting dispersal of whitebark pine seeds

ABSTRACT Clark's Nutcrackers (Nucifraga columbiana) disperse seeds of whitebark pines (Pinus albicaulis) in western North America by their scatter‐hoarding behavior. Because of declines in whitebark pine, resource managers are seeking an effective means of monitoring nutcracker population trends and the probability of seed dispersal by nutcrackers. We tested the reliability of four survey techniques (standard point counts, playback point counts, line transects, and Breeding Bird Survey routes) for estimating population size by conducting surveys at sites where a portion of the nutcracker population was marked with radio transmitters. The efficacy of distance sampling, based on detection rates from our unadjusted surveys, was also assessed. We conducted counts of whitebark pine cones within stands and related the probability of seed dispersal within stands to cone production and nutcracker abundance. We conducted 70 h of surveys for Clark's Nutcrackers at eight sites from July through November in 2007 and 2009 and estimated cone densities at six of these sites. Detection rates for all survey techniques were low and variable and we detected an average of 5.6 nutcrackers per 30 min of survey time. We also found no difference in detection rates among survey types, although significantly more nutcrackers were detected during surveys conducted during the peak of whitebark pine cone harvest (P < 0.0001). Nutcracker abundance was not correlated with cone density (P= 0.29) and we observed nutcrackers pouching seeds at all sites. Thus, cone density did not provide reliable information on whether seed dispersal was likely to occur. We suggest that alternate methods be considered for monitoring populations and assessing seed dispersal probability because we did not reliably detect nutcrackers using conventional survey techniques and because nutcracker abundance was not correlated with cone density.     

滇西北紫水鸡的分布及其种群现状

为了解滇西北紫水鸡的分布及其种群现状,于2008年11月和2009年11月至2010年4月采用直接计数法和样点法,对大理西湖及其邻近湖泊的紫水鸡种群数量进行了调查;同时收集以往有关紫水鸡种群数量及其分布的相关资料.结果 表明:滇西北紫水鸡的分布范围南起大理市,北至香格里拉县,共7个湖泊有紫水鸡分布的记录.其中洱源西湖和鹤庆母屯海是滇西北紫水鸡的主要栖息地,其余5个湖泊的种群数量较少.西湖冬季和春季的种群密度分别是32.67只/km2和18.33只/km2;母屯海春季的种群密度为50.77只/km2.紫水鸡分布的湖泊均存在不同程度的人为活动干扰.调查期间,紫水鸡主要见于水草丰富的浅水区域、沼泽和芦苇丛生境.针对紫水鸡保护存在的问题,提出相应的建议.     

A comparison of methods used to count the elephant population of the Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa

Evaluation of alternative techniques used to estimate elephant population sizes is important in order to assess the accuracy of the results obtained, upon which management decisions may be based. Data from annual helicopter surveys carried out in the Addo Elephant National Park (1978–97) are compared with registration counts obtained from intensive ground surveys in which all elephants within the park are individually known. On average, total population size estimated in aerial surveys is 8.0% lower than registration counts (n₁₉₉₇ = 251), aerial calf (< 1 year) counts are 48.8% lower than registration counts, and aerial carcass counts are 50% below the total number of deaths documented in ground surveys. Registration counts provide more accurate demographic data than aerial surveys, the results of which are shown to vary widely and unpredictably, thus compromising their value. Where population estimates rely exclusively on aerial surveys, replicate counts are recommended in order to generate confidence intervals.     

Comparison of Methods for Estimating Bird Abundance and Trends From Historical Count Data

Abstract: The use of bird counts as indices has come under increasing scrutiny because assumptions concerning detection probabilities may not be met, but there also seems to be some resistance to use of model-based approaches to estimating abundance. We used data from the United States Forest Service, Southern Region bird monitoring program to compare several common approaches for estimating annual abundance or indices and population trends from point-count data. We compared indices of abundance estimated as annual means of counts and from a mixed-Poisson model to abundance estimates from a count-removal model with 3 time intervals and a distance model with 3 distance bands. We compared trend estimates calculated from an autoregressive, exponential model fit to annual abundance estimates from the above methods and also by estimating trend directly by treating year as a continuous covariate in the mixed-Poisson model. We produced estimates for 6 forest songbirds based on an average of 621 and 459 points in 2 physiographic areas from 1997 to 2004. There was strong evidence that detection probabilities varied among species and years. Nevertheless, there was good overall agreement across trend estimates from the 5 methods for 9 of 12 comparisons. In 3 of 12 comparisons, however, patterns in detection probabilities potentially confounded interpretation of uncorrected counts. Estimates of detection probabilities differed greatly between removal and distance models, likely because the methods estimated different components of detection probability and the data collection was not optimally designed for either method. Given that detection probabilities often vary among species, years, and observers investigators should address detection probability in their surveys, whether it be by estimation of probability of detection and abundance, estimation of effects of key covariates when modeling count as an index of abundance, or through design-based methods to standardize these effects.     

Evaluating new technology for biodiversity monitoring: Are drone surveys biased?

Drones and machine learning‐based automated detection methods are being used by ecologists to conduct wildlife surveys with increasing frequency. When traditional survey methods have been evaluated, a range of factors have been found to influence detection probabilities, including individual differences among conspecific animals, which can thus introduce biases into survey counts. There has been no such evaluation of drone‐based surveys using automated detection in a natural setting. This is important to establish since any biases in counts made using these methods will need to be accounted for, to provide accurate data and improve decision‐making for threatened species. In this study, a rare opportunity to survey a ground‐truthed, individually marked population of 48 koalas in their natural habitat allowed for direct comparison of the factors impacting detection probability in both ground observation and drone surveys with manual and automated detection. We found that sex and host tree preferences impacted detection in ground surveys and in manual analysis of drone imagery with female koalas likely to be under‐represented, and koalas higher in taller trees detected less frequently when present. Tree species composition of a forest stand also impacted on detections. In contrast, none of these factors impacted on automated detection. This suggests that the combination of drone‐captured imagery and machine learning does not suffer from the same biases that affect conventional ground surveys. This provides further evidence that drones and machine learning are promising tools for gathering reliable detection data to better inform the management of threatened populations.     

Effectiveness and utility of acoustic recordings for surveying tropical birds

ABSTRACT Although acoustic recordings have recently gained popularity as an alternative to point counts for surveying birds, little is known about the relative performance of the two methods for detecting tropical bird species across multiple vegetation types. During June and July 2008, we collected species detection/nondetection data to compare the performance of a quadraphonic acoustic recording system and point counts for estimating species richness and composition and detection probabilities of 15 rare, moderately common, and common tropical bird species across six structurally distinct vegetation types (coastal dune scrub, mangrove, low‐stature deciduous thorn forest, early and late successional medium‐stature semievergreen forest, and grazed pastures) in the northern Yucatan Peninsula. We selected five rare species endemic to the Yucatan Peninsula and 10 moderately common and common species that also occur in other tropical regions. Species richness and composition did not differ between survey methods in any of the vegetation types. At the population level, however, we found support for an effect of method on detection probability for most species. For 13 species, regardless of their abundance, acoustic recordings yielded detection probabilities as high as or higher than those for point counts across all vegetation types. The remaining two species were better detected by point counts in pastures and coastal scrub, where greater visibility likely improved sightings of these species. However, these species were detected as well as or better by acoustic recordings in forests and mangroves where detections were primarily auditory. In tropical regions where experienced field observers may not be available and funding for field surveys may be limited, acoustic recordings offer a practical solution for determining species richness and composition and the occupancy patterns of most species. However, for some species, a combination of methods will provide the most reliable data. Regardless of the method selected, analyses that account for variation in detection probability among vegetation types will be necessary because most species in our study demonstrated vegetation‐dependent detection probabilities.     

Optimization and accuracy of faecal pellet count estimates of population size: The case of European rabbits in extensive breeding nuclei

Cost-effective indices to estimate relative abundances of species are crucial for their management and conservation. As an example, population indices are needed to monitor extensive breeding nuclei used for translocating wild rabbit populations. Based on counts of faecal pellets from four high density rabbit nuclei in southwest Spain: (i) we assess the accuracy of this population index in high-density populations; and (ii) present a simulation approach to evaluate how the reduction of the counting effort affects accuracy of the population estimates. Our findings suggest that this method provides a valid estimate in high-density rabbit populations, and, notably, estimates would have not substantially changed after a reduction of 45–65% in the number of counted plots depending on variation on rabbit density between nuclei. We provide a framework that managers and other scientists could use to improve data collection of pellet counts in order to optimize their chances of detecting relative abundance estimates of rabbits. In addition, we present a R function to implement our approach that can easily be applied in a variety of monitoring programmes for other species based on count data. This will likely help to reduce field-effort in different studies without compromising population indices estimates.     

Determining When Bobolink Finish Breeding to Time Agricultural Activity in Nesting Refuges

Conservation actions are ongoing for the federally and provincially threatened bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) in Ontario, Canada because of population declines. One conservation action being implemented in agricultural grasslands is the delay of hay harvesting and livestock grazing until 15 July, a general guideline for when bobolink finish breeding. Efficient methods to assess when breeding ceases could benefit bobolink and farmers engaged in conservation by ensuring nesting is finished before agricultural activity occurs and enabling agricultural activity earlier when breeding is finished before 15 July. We conducted field surveys to assess if low-intensity surveys (i.e., transect surveys, point counts, roadside counts) could accurately detect when bobolink finish breeding compared to intensive monitoring (i.e., spot mapping and nest monitoring). We monitored 29 pastures in 2017 in eastern Ontario and 9 hay fields, 10 restored grasslands, and 6 fallow fields in 2018 in southern Ontario. The date breeding finished varied across fields in 2017 from 13 June to 29 July and in 2018 from 24 June to 30 July, based on spot mapping and nest monitoring. Transect surveys and point counts were good predictors of breeding in a field, as confirmed through spot mapping and nest monitoring, based on generalized linear mixed models. We recommend using transect surveys or point counts as an efficient field method to assess when bobolink finish breeding in a field targeted for bobolink conservation. Our results suggest that 2 consecutive visits that fail to detect evidence of breeding in early July are needed to reasonably infer that breeding has likely finished, leaving a small probability (i.e., <0.01) that breeding may still be occurring. Determining when bobolink finish breeding in fields intended to provide nesting refuges can help maximize conservation benefits and minimize negative effects on agricultural production. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Mountain Plovers in Oklahoma: distribution, abundance, and habitat use

ABSTRACT.   Mountain Plover ( Charadrius montanus ) populations are inefficiently sampled by Breeding Bird Surveys. As a result, targeted sampling of select populations of this species (with an estimated global population of 11,000–14,000 birds) can be valuable. Our objectives were to determine the breeding distribution and estimate the size of the Mountain Plover population in Oklahoma. We conducted a randomized point count survey in an area where Mountain Plovers were previously known to breed and conducted additional surveys over a larger area to better delimit the distribution. We used a removal model to estimate detection probability for raw counts obtained from 1104 point counts in 2004 and 2005, and derived a state-level population estimate using the detection-adjusted counts. Mountain Plovers used flat, bare, cultivated fields for nesting, and their distribution was closely tied to the presence of clay loam soils. We estimated that at least 68–91 Mountain Plovers bred in Oklahoma in 2004–2005. The low breeding density we observed may be due to the location of our study area near the southeastern edge of the breeding range of these plovers, the low-quality habitat provided by cultivated landscapes, or a combination of factors. Because the number of birds is small, the status of the Oklahoma population is not likely to have a large effect on the global population. However, additional information is needed to help determine if cultivated landscapes represented population sources or sinks.     

Evaluation of an Aerial Survey to Estimate Abundance of Wintering Ducks in Mississippi

Abstract: Researchers have successfully designed aerial surveys that provided precise estimates of wintering populations of ducks over large physiographic regions, yet few conservation agencies have adopted these probability-based sampling designs for their surveys. We designed and evaluated an aerial survey to estimate abundance of wintering mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), dabbling ducks (tribe Anatini) other than mallards, diving ducks (tribes Aythini, Mergini, and Oxyurini), and total ducks in western Mississippi, USA. We used design-based sampling of fixed width transects to estimate population indices (Ǐ), and we used model-based methods to correct population indices for visibility bias and estimate population abundance (Ň) for 14 surveys during winters 2002–2004. Correcting for bias increased estimates of mallards, other dabbling ducks, and diving ducks by an average of 40–48% among all surveys and contributed 48–61% of the estimated variance of Ň. However, mean-squared errors were consistently less for Ň than Ǐ. Estimates of Ň met our goals for precision (CV ≤ 15%) in 7 of 14 surveys for mallards, 5 surveys for other dabbling ducks, no surveys for diving ducks, and 10 surveys for total ducks. Generally, we estimated more mallards and other dabbling ducks in mid- and late winter (Jan-Feb) than early winter (Nov-Dec) and determined that population indices from the late 1980s were nearly 3 times greater than those from our study. We developed a method to display relative densities of ducks spatially as an additional application of survey data. Our study advanced methods of estimating abundance of wintering waterfowl, and we recommend this design for continued monitoring of wintering ducks in western Mississippi and similar physiographic regions.     

Monitoring butterfly abundance: beyond pollard walks

Most butterfly monitoring protocols rely on counts along transects (Pollard walks) to generate species abundance indices and track population trends. It is still too often ignored that a population count results from two processes: the biological process (true abundance) and the statistical process (our ability to properly quantify abundance). Because individual detectability tends to vary in space (e.g., among sites) and time (e.g., among years), it remains unclear whether index counts truly reflect population sizes and trends. This study compares capture-mark-recapture (absolute abundance) and count-index (relative abundance) monitoring methods in three species (Maculinea nausithous and Iolana iolas: Lycaenidae; Minois dryas: Satyridae) in contrasted habitat types. We demonstrate that intraspecific variability in individual detectability under standard monitoring conditions is probably the rule rather than the exception, which questions the reliability of count-based indices to estimate and compare specific population abundance. Our results suggest that the accuracy of count-based methods depends heavily on the ecology and behavior of the target species, as well as on the type of habitat in which surveys take place. Monitoring programs designed to assess the abundance and trends in butterfly populations should incorporate a measure of detectability. We discuss the relative advantages and inconveniences of current monitoring methods and analytical approaches with respect to the characteristics of the species under scrutiny and resources availability.     

On the use of sample indices to reflect changes in benthic fauna biodiversity

This paper focuses on the difference between the value of some commonly used diversity indices (Simpson, Shannon, abundance, richness) calculated from benthic grab samples and their value in the population or region from which the samples are taken. The ability of the sample indices, as well as a recently derived relative Shannon index, to reflect change in biodiversity is examined in a short simulation study based on changing one of the diversity parameters (abundance, richness and evenness) in the population, whilst keeping the other two components constant. Our results suggest that, whilst their population equivalents do not always reflect biodiversity changes, the sample Simpson, Shannon and Richness indices perform well. We note that this will be true for any surveys where the sampling programme fails to detect many species in a population, and hence will be applicable for most benthic surveys. The use of sample indices to detect changes in biodiversity from long-running time series in the Thames and Tyne estuaries is illustrated.     

Potentiality and limitations of N-mixture and Royle-Nichols models to estimate animal abundance based on noninstantaneous point surveys

Reliable and accurate information on animal abundance is fundamental for the conservation and management of wildlife. Recently, a number of innovative devices (such as camera traps) have been widely used in field surveys and have largely improved survey efficiency. However, these devices often constitute noninstantaneous point surveys, resulting in the multiple counts of the same animal individuals within a single sampling occasion (i.e., false-positive errors). Many commonly-used statistical models do not explicitly account for the false-positive error, with its effects on estimates being poorly understood. Here, I tested the performance of the commonly-used Poisson-binomial N-mixture and the Royle-Nichols model in the presence of both false-positive and negative errors (i.e., individuals in a population might not be detected). I also implemented the Poisson-Poisson mixture model in the Bayesian framework to evaluate its reliability. The results of the simulation using random walks based on Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes showed that the Poisson-binomial model was not robust to false-positive errors. In comparison, the Royle-Nichols and Poisson-Poisson models provided reasonable estimates of the number of animals whose home range included the survey point. However, the number of animals whose home range included the survey point is inherently influenced by the size of animal home ranges, and thus cannot be used as a surrogate of animal density. Although the N-mixture and Royle-Nichols models are widely used, their utility might be restricted by this limitation. In conclusion, studies should clearly define the objective of surveys and carefully consider whether the models used are valid.     

鸟类调查的样线法和样点法比较:以崇明东滩春季盐沼鸟类调查为例

为了探讨样线法和样点法对盐沼湿地鸟类调查的有效性及适用性, 我们于2008年3–5月采用固定距离样线法和固定半径样点法对崇明东滩盐沼鸟类进行了调查。5次调查共记录到鸟类24种, 其中样线法记录到19种, 样点法记录到21种, 两种调查方法平均每次记录到的鸟类种数没有显著差异, 表明两种方法对盐沼鸟类种类的发现能力相似。两种方法得到的鸟类密度之间有显著的相关性,说明两种方法在反映鸟类群落中每种鸟类的相对数量方面具有可比性。但除了仅在一种调查方法中记录到的种类, 样点法调查得到的每种鸟类密度和鸟类总密度均高于样线法的调查结果。因此, 在对鸟类种群或群落的时空特征进行比较时, 需要考虑所采用的调查方法对调查结果的影响。     

Assessment of methods for estimating wild rabbit population abundance in agricultural landscapes

Various methods have been used to estimate rabbit abundance, but comparisons of standard methods are still lacking, and thus, results remain roughly comparable across studies. Ideally, a method should be applicable over a wide range of situations, such as differing abundances or habitat types. Comparisons of methods are required to evaluate the benefits of each of them, and survey methods should be validated for the conditions in which they will be used. In this study, we compare the performance of direct methods (kilometric abundance index and distance sampling) in two seasons and at two times of day (dusk and night) for estimating wild rabbit abundances in agricultural landscapes. Estimates based on direct methods were highly correlated and detected similar seasonal population changes. Night counts provided better estimates than did dusk counts and exhibited more precision. Results are discussed within the context of rabbit behaviour and their implications for rabbit population surveys.     

Developing indicators for European birds

The global pledge to deliver 'a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss by 2010' is echoed in a number of regional and national level targets. There is broad consensus, however, that in the absence of conservation action, biodiversity will continue to be lost at a rate unprecedented in the recent era. Remarkably, we lack a basic system to measure progress towards these targets and, in particular, we lack standard measures of biodiversity and procedures to construct and assess summary statistics. Here, we develop a simple classification of biodiversity indicators to assist their development and clarify purpose. We use European birds, as example taxa, to show how robust indicators can be constructed and how they can be interpreted. We have developed statistical methods to calculate supranational, multi-species indices using population data from national annual breeding bird surveys in Europe. Skilled volunteers using standardized field methods undertake data collection where methods and survey designs differ slightly across countries. Survey plots tend to be widely distributed at a national level, covering many bird species and habitats with reasonable representation. National species' indices are calculated using log-linear regression, which allows for plot turnover. Supranational species' indices are constructed by combining the national species' indices weighted by national population sizes of each species. Supranational, multi-species indicators are calculated by averaging the resulting indices. We show that common farmland birds in Europe have declined steeply over the last two decades, whereas woodland birds have not. Evidence elsewhere shows that the main driver of farmland bird declines is increased agricultural intensification. We argue that the farmland bird indicator is a useful surrogate for trends in other elements of biodiversity in this habitat.     

Estimation of fish abundance indices based on scientific research trawl surveys

The fish abundance index over an ocean region is defined here to be the integral of expected catch per unit effort (CPUE), approximated by the sum of expected CPUE over grid squares. When trawl surveys are done within grid squares selected according to a probability sampling design, several other sources of variation such as the fish population dynamics and the catching process are also involved. In such situations model-assisted methods for estimating abundance, assessed under both design and model perspectives, have some advantages over purely design-based methods such as the Horvitz-Thompson (HT) estimator or purely model-based prediction approaches. This article develops model-assisted empirical likelihood (EL) methods via loglinear regression and nonparametric smoothing. The methods are applied to grid surveys of the Grand Bank region carried out annually by Fishery Products International from 1996 through 2002. The HT and EL methods produce similar point estimates of abundance indices. Simulation results, however, indicate that the EL estimator under local linear smoothing is associated with smaller standard errors.     

Comparison of methods for obtaining population estimates for Red Squirrels in relation to damage due to bark stripping.

The relation between population density and the extent of damage incurred by bark stripping behaviour was investigated in a Scots Pine plantation known to have suffered considerable damage. Population density was estimated by three non-interventionist methods that could potentially be applied elsewhere: line surveys, drey counts and cone counts. The different methods of estimating the population size proved to be consistent and produced an unusually high value of four Red Squirrels per hectare. Within the study area, fresh damage was related to local population densities.     

A comparison of methods for estimating plant population size

Assessing local population size is one of the most common tasks in biodiversity monitoring. Population size estimates are not only important for conservation management and population threat assessment; they also enter many other analyses in landscape ecology and conservation. It is therefore concerning that methods for estimating plant population sizes are not standardized. We surveyed the literature and found that the most commonly used methods are counting either all or only flowering individuals on a site, as well as counting individuals in random plots or plots on transects. Sometimes, these methods are combined in the same study, without assurance that they produce comparable results. We therefore conducted a field study, in which we obtained population size estimates from all four methods for six different calcareous grassland species at 18 study sites. Our results demonstrate not only substantial differences between overall count rates generated by the different methods, but methods that surveyed the whole population also systematically yielded lower counts when species were less visible and when the area was larger, suggesting that these methods suffer from biases that could distort species and site comparisons. We conclude that estimates from different methods should not be mixed, and that plot or transect based surveys have likely smaller biases for large areas or poorly visible individuals, and are therefore preferable.