Statewide and local recruitment of mourning doves in Missouri

Intensive harvests have the potential to greatly affect local mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) populations, a popular gamebird and songbird. To evaluate if recruitment was commensurate with harvest, we applied a ratio-based method to estimate local and statewide mourning dove recruitment across 7 public hunting areas in Missouri from 2005 to 2011. We estimated recruitment from preharvest adult sex ratios and harvest age ratios that incorporated various methods to address potential inherent biases (e.g., bias in the adults of unknown sex in preharvest samples, bias in unknown age wings, and local differential vulnerability; DV). Data from 356 radio-marked doves revealed a DV rate, where hatch year doves were, on average 2.7× more likely to be harvested than adult doves. Recruitment estimates for local areas were highly variable and in some cases, biologically unrealistic (e.g., >10 offspring/female), because of small preharvest sample sizes. However, data pooled statewide provided recruitment estimates of 3.1 offspring/female (±0.3 SE) or 4.1 offspring/female (±0.3 SE), assuming samples of unknown sex doves were female biased or male biased, respectively. Although statewide estimates agree with directly observed rates, the sex ratios and differential vulnerability comprising them vary considerably from what has been previously assumed. Whether preharvest sex ratios are biased from trapping methods has 2 important implications; either regional approaches have overestimated recruitment or the number of females in Missouri's population is much less than originally thought. Because each of these scenarios are important to understanding the effects of regional harvest management on Missouri's dove population, they highlight the importance of a better understanding of biases involved in estimating recruitment. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Hierarchical Bayesian integrated model for estimating migratory bird harvest in Canada

The Canadian Wildlife Service (CWS) requires reliable estimates of the harvest of migratory game birds, including waterfowl, to effectively manage populations of these hunted species. The National Harvest Survey is an annual survey of hunters who purchase Canada's mandatory migratory game bird hunting permit, integrating information from a survey of hunting activity with information from a separate survey of species composition in the harvest. We used these survey data to estimate the number of birds harvested for each species and hunting activity metrics (e.g., number of active hunters, days spent hunting). The analytical methods used to generate these estimates have not changed since the survey was first designed in the early 1970s. We describe a new hierarchical Bayesian integrated model, which replaces the series of ratio estimators that comprised the old model. We are using this new model to generate estimates for migratory bird harvests as of the 2019–2020 hunting season, and to generate updated estimates for all earlier years. The hierarchical Bayesian model uses over-dispersed Poisson distributions to model mean hunter activity and harvest (zero-inflated Poisson and zero-truncated Poisson, respectively). It also includes multinomial distributions to model some key components (e.g., variation in harvest across periods of the hunting season, the species composition of the harvest within each of those periods, the age and sex composition in the harvests of a given species). We estimated the parameters of the Poisson and the multinomial distributions for each year as random effects using first-difference time-series. This time-series component allows the model to share information across years and reduces the sensitivity of the estimates to annual sampling noise. The new model estimates are generally very similar to those from the old model, particularly for the species that occur most commonly in the harvest, so the results do not suggest any major changes to harvest management decisions and regulations. Estimates for all species from the new model are more precise and less susceptible to annual sampling error, particularly for species that occur less commonly in the harvest (e.g., sea ducks, other species of conservation concern). This new model, with its hierarchical Bayesian framework, will also facilitate future improvements and elaborations, allowing the incorporation of prior information from the rich literature and knowledge in game bird management and biology.     

Effect of Pre-Harvest Mortality on Harvest Rates and Derived Population Estimates

Banding waterfowl, in combination with the citizen science provided by hunters that report marks from harvested birds, is a long-standing, institutionalized practice for estimating probabilities of survival and exploitation (i.e., legal harvest from such populations). Range-wide population abundance can also be estimated by combining the number of banded individuals with the number harvested from the population. Waterfowl marking with uniquely identifiable bands done during late summer in North America is often referred to as pre-season banding. For example, mass capture of arctic geese for pre-season banding is normally done in July (nonbreeders) or August (failed breeders and breeders with young) during flightless molt of respective groups. An important assumption for proper inference about harvest probability provided from such samples is that there is no mortality, natural or otherwise, during the interval between when individuals are marked and when hunting seasons begin. We evaluated the effect of variable mortality that could occur between marking and subsequent hunting seasons on estimates of survival, recovery, and harvest probabilities using simulation pertinent to a typical waterfowl species. We fit a Brownie tag-recovery model to the simulated data and calculated the estimator bias that resulted from various pre-harvest mortality scenarios. There was no effect on survival probability during the interval between annual banding in subsequent years, but recovery probability, and thus estimated harvest probability, was directly and inversely related to pre-harvest mortality of juveniles. The magnitude of negative bias in harvest probability of juveniles increased further as the fraction of the population sampled declined. If the probability of pre-harvest mortality differs between marked and unmarked individuals, the negative bias in harvest probability results in overestimates of derived abundance that increases as the proportion of marked individuals in the population declines. We used our observed results to propose an explanation for occasional biologically improbable estimates of abundance of juvenile lesser snow geese (Anser caerulescens). © 2021 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

Long-Term Survival and Harvest of Resident Canada Geese in Virginia

Resident populations of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) are of particular management interest throughout the eastern United States given increased human-wildlife conflicts due to regional increases in the Atlantic Flyway Resident Population. Within Virginia, USA, growth rates of resident goose populations have been reduced through extended harvest seasons and increased bag limits. Our objective was to investigate spatiotemporal patterns in survival rates and harvest rates of resident geese in Virginia over the past 25 years. We estimated annual survival, recovery, and harvest rates using mark-recapture data from 1990–2015 for individuals that were banded as resident birds during summer throughout the state. We tested for differences in annual survival probability and harvest rates of resident geese banded and recovered in 3 distinct goose hunt zones: the Atlantic, Southern James Bay, and Western hunt zones, each of which had different hunting regulations. We also tested for differences in survival and harvest rates between individuals banded in rural or urban sampling locations, and between age classes (i.e., after hatch-year or hatch-year). In general, survival rates of resident geese over the past 25 years in Virginia are declining. Differences in survival among the 3 goose hunt zones also suggests that current harvest management strategies have reduced survival rates of resident geese. Upon closer examination, we found differences in survival among zones, with resident geese in the Atlantic and Southern James Bay hunt zones showing more negative declines compared to resident geese in the Western zone. Resident geese banded in rural areas had higher survival than urban-banded geese. We also investigated the effects of sampling effort on survival estimates and found no difference in survival estimates among groups when using 75%, 50%, 25%, or 5% of the data randomly sampled from the full data set, suggesting that banding efforts of resident geese could be reduced and continue to inform adaptive management strategies for these populations throughout Virginia. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

How many juvenile Teal Anas crecca reach the wintering grounds? Flyway-scale survival rate inferred from wing age-ratios

Autumn postnuptial migration is critical in the dabbling duck annual cycle, when first-year birds in particular suffer high losses to natural and hunting mortality. Mortality rates in this age-class are generally unknown in Europe where winter ringing predominates. We used data from large-scale wing collections from hunters in Finland, Denmark and France to test the prediction that juvenile proportions among killed Teal (Anas crecca) would decline with distance along the flyway. As expected, this proportion decreased from 89% in Northern Finland to 58% in Western France. Potential biases linked with age determination from the wings, differential migration of age-classes, relative susceptibility to different forms hunting and gradual improvement of juvenile survival as they learn to avoid hunters could not explain the observed decline of juveniles in the shot population. This pattern was therefore considered to be genuine, the result of the cumulative depletion of first-years along the flyway, likely through hunting. On this assumption, combined with known adult monthly survival rates during August–November (94.2%), monthly juvenile survival rate was estimated at 52.8%, i.e. 14.7% (range 13.9–15.4% based on extreme values of adult survival) amongst Scandinavian juveniles reaching wintering quarters in Western France. Despite lack of precision in such estimates based on relative proportions, there is little doubt about the magnitude of autumn juvenile mortality and its consequences for the population dynamics of Teal. Lack of correlations between annual proportions of juveniles in the hunting bag and an index of Teal breeding success in Finland may result from such high and variable inter-annual mortality.     

Population and Harvest Dynamics of Midcontinent Sandhill Cranes

Sandhill cranes (Antigone canadensis) inhabiting the midcontinent of North America have been hunted since the 1960s under management goals of maintaining abundance, retaining geographic distribution, and maximizing sustainable harvest. Some biologists have raised concerns regarding harvest sustainability because sandhill cranes have lower reproductive rates than other game birds. We summarized demographic information in an age-structured matrix model to better understand population dynamics and harvest. Population indices and recovered harvest since the early 1980s suggest midcontinent sandhill cranes have experienced an average long-term annual growth of 0.9%; meanwhile, harvest has increased 1.8% annually. Adult survival and recruitment rates estimated from field data required modest adjustments (1–3%) so that model-derived growth rates matched growth estimated from a long-term survey (0.887 adult survival and 0.199 females/breeding female). Considering 0.9% long-term annual growth, sandhill cranes could be harvested at a rate of 6.6% if harvest was additive to natural mortality (assumed to be 0.05) or 11.3% if harvest mortality compensated for natural mortality. Life-history characteristics for long-lived organisms and demographic evidence suggested that hunter harvest was primarily additive. Differential harvest rates of segments of sandhill cranes in the midcontinent population derived from differential exposure to hunting suggested potentially unsustainable harvest for greater sandhill cranes (A. c. tabida) from 2 breeding segments. Overall, demographic evidence suggests that the harvest of sandhill cranes in the midcontinent population has been managed sustainably. Monitoring activities that reduce nuisance variation and estimate vital and harvest rates by subspecies would support continued management of sandhill cranes that are of interest to hunters and bird watchers. Published 2020. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Development and Validation of a Wing Key to Improve Harvest Management of Alcids in the Northwest Atlantic

Abstract: Murres (thick-billed [Uria lomvia] and common [U. aalge]) are legally hunted along the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. Razorbills (Alca torda) are also incidentally taken. Only irregular estimates of the total murre harvest are available, so a tool to derive estimates of age- and species-specific harvest is required to effectively monitor the hunt and manage a sustainable harvest. We collected 293 murre and razorbill wings from hunters between 1999–2004, with the goal of identifying wing characteristics that could be used to discriminate age and species. We found that murres and razorbills could be reliably aged (first-yr vs. older) on the basis of molt limits of greater wing coverts. Using a discriminant function (DF) incorporating length of the first primary and second secondary feather, we classified 95–96% of common murres and 99–100% of thick-billed murres correctly to species. First-year thick-billed and common murres also differed in number of pale secondary coverts (median = 12 and 3, respectively), providing another species-specific trait. We developed a key to age and assign species based on these results. We assessed applicability and accuracy of the wing-key with novice observers, who differentiated between murre and razorbill wings using feather-pattern coloration with high accuracy (95 ± 9%) and were able to differentiate between the 2 murres species using 3 techniques: visual assessment of wing shape (83 ± 14% accuracy), the DF (94 ± 6%), and number of worn secondary coverts for first-year birds only (83 ± 5%). Experience increased success rates of aging and species classification using wing shape and number of worn secondary coverts but not using the DF. Despite differences in measurement accuracy and repeatability among observers, the DF proved to be robust. Our results will facilitate implementation of a species composition survey for the murre hunt and will improve identification rates of carcasses found during beached bird surveys in the Northwest Atlantic, aiding in monitoring of alcid populations vulnerable to anthropogenic activities.     

Evaluating Differences in Harvest Data Used in the Sex-Age-Kill Deer Population Model

Abstract: A steady increase in archery hunting participation and frequent changes in hunter regulations led to an evaluation of harvest data used in a common white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population model. Our goal was to determine if model parameters and population estimates traditionally estimated solely by firearm harvest data were biased with respect to altered sex and age ratios brought about by increases in archery hunting and harvest success. The sex-age-kill (SAK) model, commonly used by state agencies, was developed in the mid-1900s when deer numbers were low and firearm harvest was predominant. Management actions were concentrated on increasing deer numbers, and model assumptions relied heavily on a stable age distribution and a minimal antlerless deer harvest. We evaluated the reliance of SAK in a modern hunting scenario using a 10-year dataset obtained from Michigan, USA, that encompassed a variety of climatic regions, hunting seasons, and regulation scenarios. We found that firearm and archery harvest sex and age ratios differed among 5 geographic groups and study years for males, females, and fawns (P<0.001, P = 0.001, and P = 0.037, respectively). Also, the addition of archery harvest data increased population estimates but did not alter overall trends. We recommend that managers reassess harvest-based population estimates in 2 situations: 1) if regulation changes affect antlerless deer harvest, and 2) when trends in hunter success rates cause fluctuations in harvest data.     

Using Multilevel Models to Estimate Variation in Foraging Returns

Distributions of human foraging success across age have implications for many aspects of human evolution. Estimating the distribution of foraging returns is complicated by (1) the zero-inflated nature of hunting returns, as many if not most trips fail, and (2) the substantial variation among hunters, independent of age. We develop a multilevel mixture analysis of human foraging data to address these difficulties. Using a previously published 20-year record of hunts by 147 individual Aché hunters in eastern Paraguay, we estimate returns-by-age functions for both hunting failures and the size of harvests, while also estimating the heterogeneity among hunters. Consistent with previous analyses, we find that most hunters peak around 40 years of age. We can also show, however, that much more of the variation among Aché hunters arises from heterogeneity in failure rates (zero returns), not harvest sizes. We also introduce a new R package, glmer2stan, to assist in defining and fitting similar multilevel mixture models.     

Who Bites the Bullet First? The Susceptibility of Leopards Panthera pardus to Trophy Hunting

Reliable data is fundamentally important for managing large carnivore populations, and vital for informing hunting quota levels if those populations are subject to trophy hunting. Camera-trapping and spoor counts can provide reliable population estimates for many carnivores, but governments typically lack the resources to implement such surveys over the spatial scales required to inform robust quota setting. It may therefore be prudent to shift focus away from estimating population size and instead focus on monitoring population trend. In this paper we assess the susceptibility of African leopards Panthera pardus to trophy hunting. This has management ramifications, particularly if the use of harvest composition is to be explored as a metric of population trend. We explore the susceptibility of different leopard age and sex cohorts to trophy hunting; first by examining their intrinsic susceptibility to encountering trophy hunters using camera-traps as surrogates, and second by assessing their extrinsic susceptibility using photographic questionnaire surveys to determine their attractiveness to hunters. We show that adult male and female leopards share similar incident rates to encountering hunters but adult males are the most susceptible to hunting due to hunter preference for large trophies. In contrast, sub-adult leopards rarely encounter hunters and are the least attractive trophies. We suggest that our findings be used as a foundation for the exploration of a harvest composition scheme in the Kwazulu-Natal and Limpopo provinces where post mortem information is collected from hunted leopards and submitted to the local provincial authorities.     

Attitudes of Missouri Small Game Hunters Toward Nontoxic-Shot Regulations

ABSTRACT Wildlife managers are becoming more concerned about the exposure of birds, in addition to waterfowl, to spent lead shot. Knowledge of hunter attitudes and their acceptance of nontoxic-shot regulations will be important in establishing new regulations. Our objective was to assess the attitudes of small game hunters in Missouri, USA, toward a nontoxic-shot regulation for small game hunting, specifically for mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). Most hunters (71.7–84.8%) opposed additional nontoxic-shot regulations. Hunters from rural areas, hunters with a rural background, hunters who hunt doves, hunters who currently hunt waterfowl, hunters who primarily use private lands, and current upland game hunters were more likely to oppose new regulations. For mourning dove hunting, most small game hunters (81.1%) opposed further restrictions; however, many non-dove hunters (57.1%) expressed no opinion. Because our results demonstrate that most small game hunters and dove hunters in Missouri are decidedly against further nontoxic-shot regulations, any informational and educational programs developed to accompany future policy changes must address their concerns.     

Origins of harvested American black ducks: stable isotopes support the flyover hypothesis

Waterfowl management is more effective when based on detailed information on population connectivity between breeding, wintering, and stopover sites. For the American black duck (Anas rubripes), a species of conservation concern, estimates for the fall age ratio at harvest differed depending on whether harvest data were derived from Canada or the United States, suggesting regional differences. Within Canada, hunters in Atlantic Canada were more likely to harvest black ducks from nearby breeding locations compared to hunters in southern Ontario and Quebec, Canada, who were more likely to harvest individuals from the Boreal Softwood and Taiga Shield of eastern Canada. Black ducks harvested in the United States are thought to originate predominantly from northern portions of the breeding range, leading to the flyover hypothesis, which postulates that black ducks produced in the Boreal Softwood and Taiga Shield region are less susceptible to harvest by hunters in Atlantic Canada and northeastern United States. To test the flyover hypothesis, we examined regional and temporal differences in the origins of harvested black ducks using feathers from wings (n = 664) submitted by hunters to the species composition and parts collection surveys across 3 hunting seasons (2017–2018, 2018–2019, 2019–2020). We used a likelihood-based assignment method that relied on feather stable-hydrogen isotopes (δ²H) and stable-carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) to determine the natal or molt origin of individuals harvested within eastern Canada and the United States. We also used a spatial clustering technique to group harvested individuals by area of origin without a priori knowledge of such regions. Adult female black ducks originated farther south compared to males and juveniles. All sexes and ages of black ducks harvested in Atlantic Canada showed predominantly southern origins, while those harvested in the United States and other Canadian provinces primarily originated farther north within the boreal, supporting the flyover hypothesis. By contrast, we found no relationship between timing of harvest or peaks of migration and individual origin. After combining band returns and stable isotopes, we inferred 2 distinct stocks: the Mississippi flyway stock and the Atlantic flyway stock. We recommend that regional demographic parameters, particularly for Atlantic Canada, be directly measured to promote more effective conservation of black ducks and optimize harvest opportunities in the United States and Canada.     

Big-game,small-game,and gamebird hunting in New Zealand: Hunting effort,harvest, and expenditure in 1988

Abstract

A postal survey of 8639 licensed firearm owners in 1989 indicated that an estimated 117 200 ± 6300 New Zealanders (3.5% of the total population) did some hunting in 1988. An estimated 33 100 former hunters did not hunt in 1988 but thought it likely that they would hunt again in future. The survey provided useful estimates of 1988 national totals for hunting effort (4.4 million hunter days), gross expenditure ($NZ100 million), and harvest (6.5 million animals).

Small-game hunting dominated, involving 81% of hunters, 59% of total hunting effort, and 86% of total numerical harvest: rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) each comprised 40% of the national bag. Gamebird hunting involved 48% of hunters, 19% of effort, and 11% of total harvest: ducks comprised 73% of the gamebird harvest. Although big-game hunting attracted the fewest hunters (42%) it ranked second for hunting effort (21%). Big game formed 3% of the total numerical harvest: pigs (Sus scrofa), goats (Capra hircus), and red deer (Cervus elaphus scoticus) were the most commonly taken. Big-game were estimated to comprise 49% of total harvest biomass, followed by small-game (47%), and gamebirds (4%). Most deer (nearly 60%) were taken for recreation, with helicopter-based hunting accounting for only one-third the total deer harvest.

A quarter of those people hunting in 1988 hunted on five or fewer days that year, and a relatively small group of mainly professional hunters accounted for a disproportionately large share of the overall harvest Hunters reported spending an average of $851 each on hunting in 1988. Expenditure on big-game comprised 44% of the total, small-game 23%, and gamebirds 33%. Expenditure per animal harvested or per day hunted was greater for big-game animals (other than goats) than for gamebirds, which were more expensive to hunt than small-game. Total hunting effort was inversely related to the average expenditure per animal harvested, regardless of the type of game.     

Mourning dove reporting probabilities for web-address versus toll-free bands

Federal migratory bird bands have been inscribed with a postal address and toll-free telephone number (toll-free bands) since 1995 for their reporting, but in 2007 the postal mail address was replaced with an internet address (web-address bands). The reporting rate of web-address bands is unknown, and knowledge of band reporting probabilities is an integral part of bird band-recovery studies designed to obtain unbiased estimates of harvest rates and recovery rates if use of band types differs across space and time. We estimated web-address band reporting probabilities for mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) in the United States by comparing the relative recovery rate (ratio) of web-address to toll-free bands and applying this as an adjustment factor to the known reporting probabilities of toll-free bands. Cooperators banded 132,386 doves representing 57,982 (44%) web-address and 74,404 (56%) toll-free bands in July and August during 2008–2010 across 34 states, 12 regions, and 3 management units. Of the birds banded, 4,642 (3.5%) were direct recoveries, as a result of being shot, and all but 3 were reported via telephone or internet. Nationally, internet reporting accounted for 16.3% of toll-free bands and 42.9% of web-address bands recovered. Web-address bands had a greater recovery rate than toll-free bands (ratio = 1.081, SE = 0.027). We found some evidence of spatial variation in ratio estimates at management unit and regional scales, but the variation was primarily at the regional level where it was not great (range = 1.015–1.213) and statistical support for this variation was not particularly strong (SE = 0.129). Nationally, the web-address band reporting probability was 0.535 (SE = 0.021), an absolute increase of 0.040 compared to the reporting probability of toll-free bands. The additional reporting probability of web-address bands relative to toll-free bands must be accounted for in band-recovery studies used to obtain estimates of harvest rates and recovery rates if use of band types differs across space and time for mourning doves and possibly other species. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Temporal changes in age and sex ratios of forest grouse harvested in northeastern oregon

Ratio of immature (young of the year) grouse to adult birds (I:A) in the harvest of upland game birds is commonly used as an index to annual reproduction; however, I:A ratios can vary as the season progresses producing biased estimates. We analyzed I:A ratios in the daily harvest of dusky grouse (Dendragopus obscurus) and ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus) in northeastern Oregon over 28 years (1981–2008) and found that I:A ratios in the harvest declined for both species as the hunting season progressed. We also analyzed ratios of adult female to adult male (AF:AM) grouse to determine if female and male grouse were harvested in equal numbers throughout the harvest season. We found that more males than females of both species were harvested, but that AF:AM ratio of both dusky and ruffed grouse did not change during most of the hunting season. Approximately 50% of the annual harvest occurred during the first 14 days of the hunting season. Therefore, we recommend using the ratios of I:A birds in the first 14 days of the harvest season as the best index to annual reproduction of forest grouse in northeast Oregon. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

The Effects of Landscape Characteristics on Northern Bobwhite Density

The northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) is an ecologically and economically valuable species in the United States. Managers rely on autumn density estimates to set harvest regulations, balancing the interests of hunters and long-term bobwhite population viability. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) is a useful framework for estimating population size and modeling spatial variation in density. We used SCR to quantify the effect of landscape structure on spatial variation in density for a population of bobwhites on the Di-Lane Wildlife Management Area in Waynesboro, Georgia, USA. Without additional telemetry or nesting data, we were also able to estimate a spatially explicit metric of productivity. To sample the population, we deployed a fixed array of 395, 262, and 268 funnel traps in 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively. We estimated age structure, with the highest density of juveniles (0.32 birds/ha, 95% CI = 0.28–0.37) and adults (0.10 birds/ha, 95% CI = 0.08–0.12) estimated in 2016. In our top model, density was negatively related to the proportion of closed canopy hardwoods. To increase bobwhite density on the landscape, managers should reduce the amount of closed canopy hardwood forest. Furthermore, the spatially explicit age ratio we estimated could be used to target management towards increasing the recruitment of chicks into the autumn population. An SCR approach may require additional logistical and financial resources relative to other data collection methods, but it makes modeling spatial variation in density straightforward and can be used to gather data to simultaneously understand population structure, vital rates, and movement. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

An Integrated Population Model for Harvest Management of Atlantic Brant

Atlantic brant (Branta bernicla hrota) are important game birds in the Atlantic Flyway and several long-term monitoring data sets could assist with harvest management, including a count-based survey and demographic data. Considering their relative strengths and weaknesses, integrated analysis to these data would likely improve harvest management, but tools for integration have not yet been developed. Managers currently use an aerial count survey on the wintering grounds, the mid-winter survey, to set harvest regulations. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) for Atlantic brant that uses multiple data sources to simultaneously estimate population abundance, survival, and productivity. The IPM abundance estimates for data from 1975–2018 were less variable than annual mid-winter survey counts or Lincoln estimates, presumably reflecting better accounting for observer error and incorporation of demographic estimates by the IPM. Posterior estimates of adult survival were high (0.77–0.87), and harvest rates of adults and juveniles were positively correlated with more liberal hunting regulations (i.e., hunting days and the daily bag limit). Productivity was variable, with the percent of juveniles in the winter population ranging from 1% to >40%. We found no evidence for environmental relationships with productivity. Using IPM-predicted population abundances rather than mid-winter survey counts alone would have meant fewer annual changes to hunting regulations since 2004. Use of the IPM could improve harvest management for Atlantic brant by providing the ability to predict abundance before annual hunting regulations are set, and by providing more stable hunting regulations, with fewer annual changes. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Mark–recapture using tetracycline and genetics reveal record-high bear density

We used tetracycline biomarking, augmented with genetic methods to estimate the size of an American black bear (Ursus americanus) population on an island in Southeast Alaska. We marked 132 and 189 bears that consumed remote, tetracycline-laced baits in 2 different years, respectively, and observed 39 marks in 692 bone samples subsequently collected from hunters. We genetically analyzed hair samples from bait sites to determine the sex of marked bears, facilitating derivation of sex-specific population estimates. We obtained harvest samples from beyond the study area to correct for emigration. We estimated a density of 155 independent bears/100 km², which is equivalent to the highest recorded for this species. This high density appears to be maintained by abundant, accessible natural food. Our population estimate (approx. 1,000 bears) could be used as a baseline and to set hunting quotas. The refined biomarking method for abundance estimation is a useful alternative where physical captures or DNA-based estimates are precluded by cost or logistics. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Dynamics of Newly Established Elk Populations

Abstract: The dynamics of newly established elk (Cervus elaphus) populations can provide insights about maximum sustainable rates of reproduction, survival, and increase. However, data used to estimate rates of increase typically have been limited to counts and rarely have included complementary estimates of vital rates. Complexities of population dynamics cannot be understood without considering population processes as well as population states. We estimated pregnancy rates, survival rates, age ratios, and sex ratios for reintroduced elk at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA; combined vital rates in a population projection model; and compared model projections with observed elk numbers and population ratios. Pregnancy rates in January (early in the second trimester of pregnancy) averaged 54.1% (SE = 5.4%) for subadults and 91.0% (SE = 1.7%) for adults, and 91.6% of pregnancies resulted in recruitment at 8 months. Annual survival rates of adult females averaged 0.96 (95% CI = 0.94-0.98) with hunting included and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97-0.99) with hunting excluded from calculations. Our fitted model explained 99.8% of past variation in population estimates and represents a useful new tool for short-term management planning. Although we found no evidence of temporal variation in vital rates, variation in population composition caused substantial variation in projected rates of increase (Λ = 1.20-1.36). Restoring documented hunter harvests and removals of elk by the National Park Service led to a potential rate of Λ = 1.26. Greater rates of increase substantiated elsewhere were within the expected range of chance variation, given our model and estimates of vital rates. Rates of increase realized by small elk populations are too variable to support inferences about habitat quality or density dependence.     

It counts who counts: an experimental evaluation of the importance of observer effects on spotlight count estimates

Spotlight surveys conducted by volunteers is a promising method to assess the abundance of nocturnally active mammals, but estimates are subject to bias if different observer groups differ in their ability to detect animals in the dark. We quantified the variation amongst volunteer spotlight observers with respect to their ability to detect and estimate distance to realistic animal silhouettes at different distances. Detection probabilities were higher for observers experienced in spotlighting mammals than for inexperienced observers, higher for observers with a hunting background compared with non-hunters and decreased as function of age but were independent of sex or educational background. If observer-specific detection probabilities were applied to real counting routes, point count estimates from inexperienced observers without a hunting background would only be 43 % (95 % CI, 39–48) of what inexperienced hunters with a hunting background would obtain and 29 % (25–33) of what experienced spotlight observers would detect. Mean estimated distances to objects did not deviate from true distances (no bias) but were highly imprecise. Female non-hunters estimated distances less precisely than other observers and precision increased with age. The study shows that observer effects may influence abundance estimates and underlines the importance of testing and accounting for observer effects when designing citizen science-based population survey programmes.