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Dawn M. Davis Kerry P. Reese Scott C. Gardner 《The Journal of wildlife management》2014,78(8):1343-1355
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Brian S. Cade David R. Edmunds Douglas S. Ouren 《The Journal of wildlife management》2022,86(5):e22228
Ecologists often estimate population trends of animals in time series of counts using linear regression to estimate parameters in a linear transformation of multiplicative growth models, where logarithms of rates of change in counts in time intervals are used as response variables. We present quantile regression estimates for the median (0.50) and interquartile (0.25, 0.75) relationships as an alternative to mean regression estimates for common density-dependent and density-independent population growth models. We demonstrate that the quantile regression estimates are more robust to outliers and require fewer distributional assumptions than conventional mean regression estimates and can provide information on heterogeneous rates of change ignored by mean regression. We provide quantile regression trend estimates for 2 populations of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, and for the Crawford population of Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) in southwestern Colorado, USA. Our selected Gompertz models of density dependence for both populations of greater sage-grouse had smaller negative estimates of density-dependence terms and less variation in corresponding predicted growth rates (λ) for quantile than mean regression models. In contrast, our selected Gompertz models of density dependence with piecewise linear effects of years for the Crawford population of Gunnison sage-grouse had predicted changes in λ across years from quantile regressions that varied more than those from mean regression because of heterogeneity in estimated λs that were both less and greater than mean estimates. Our results add to literature establishing that quantile regression provides better behaved estimates than mean regression when there are outlying growth rates, including those induced by adjustments for zeros in the time series of counts. The 0.25 and 0.75 quantiles bracketing the median provide robust estimates of population changes (λ) for the central 50% of time series data and provide a 50% prediction interval for a single new prediction without making parametric distributional assumptions or assuming homogeneous λs. Compared to mean estimates, our quantile regression trend estimates for greater sage-grouse indicated less variation in density-dependent λs by minimizing sensitivity to outlying values, and for Gunnison sage-grouse indicated greater variation in density-dependent λs associated with heterogeneity among quantiles. 相似文献
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ERIC J. KOLADA MICHAEL L. CASAZZA JAMES S. SEDINGER 《The Journal of wildlife management》2009,73(8):1341-1347
ABSTRACT We studied nest survival of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in 5 subareas of Mono County, California, USA, from 2003 to 2005 to 1) evaluate the importance of key vegetation variables for nest success, and 2) to compare nest success in this population with other greater sage-grouse populations. We captured and radiotracked females (n = 72) to identify nest sites and monitor nest survival. We measured vegetation at nest sites and within a 10-m radius around each nest to evaluate possible vegetation factors influencing nest survival. We estimated daily nest survival and the effect of explanatory variables on daily nest survival using nest-survival models in Program MARK. We assessed effects on daily nest survival of total, sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), and nonsagebrush live shrub-cover, Robel visual obstruction, the mean of grass residual height and grass residual cover measurements within 10 m of the nest shrub, and area of the shrub, shrub height, and shrub type at the nest site itself. Assuming a 38-day exposure period, we estimated nest survival at 43.4%, with percent cover of shrubs other than sagebrush as the variable most related to nest survival. Nest survival increased with increasing cover of shrubs other than sagebrush. Also, daily nest survival decreased with nest age, and there was considerable variation in nest survival among the 5 subareas. Our results indicate that greater shrub cover and a diversity of shrub species within sagebrush habitats may be more important to sage-grouse nest success in Mono County than has been reported elsewhere. 相似文献
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MATTHEW J. HOLLORAN RUSTY C. KAISER WAYNE A. HUBERT 《The Journal of wildlife management》2010,74(1):65-72
ABSTRACT Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.)-dominated habitats in the western United States have experienced extensive, rapid changes due to development of natural-gas fields, resulting in localized declines of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations. It is unclear whether population declines in natural-gas fields are caused by avoidance or demographic impacts, or the age classes that are most affected. Land and wildlife management agencies need information on how energy developments affect sage-grouse populations to ensure informed land-use decisions are made, effective mitigation measures are identified, and appropriate monitoring programs are implemented (Sawyer et al. 2006). We used information from radio-equipped greater sage-grouse and lek counts to investigate natural-gas development influences on 1) the distribution of, and 2) the probability of recruiting yearling males and females into breeding populations in the Upper Green River Basin of southwestern Wyoming, USA. Yearling males avoided leks near the infrastructure of natural-gas fields when establishing breeding territories; yearling females avoided nesting within 950 m of the infrastructure of natural-gas fields. Additionally, both yearling males and yearling females reared in areas where infrastructure was present had lower annual survival, and yearling males established breeding territories less often, compared to yearlings reared in areas with no infrastructure. Our results supply mechanisms for population-level declines of sage-grouse documented in natural-gas fields, and suggest to land managers that current stipulations on development may not provide management solutions. Managing landscapes so that suitably sized and located regions remain undeveloped may be an effective strategy to sustain greater sage-grouse populations affected by energy developments. 相似文献
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Kyle Ebenhoch Daniel Thornton Lisa Shipley Jeffrey A. Manning Kevin White 《The Journal of wildlife management》2019,83(6):1314-1325
Translocation is a vital tool in conservation and recovery programs, and knowledge of factors that determine demographic rates of translocated organisms is important for assessing the efficacy of translocations. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have been the subject of recent translocation efforts because of their declining range and their usefulness as an umbrella species for conservation. Using a long-term data set on sage-grouse in central Washington, USA, we compared movement and demographic rates of translocated and resident birds. Because newly translocated birds experience physiological stress during translocation and are released in unfamiliar habitat, we hypothesized their demographic rates would differ from residents. We analyzed 18 years of radio-tracking data acquired from resident, newly translocated (<1 yr post-translocation; T1), and previously translocated (>1 yr post-translocation; T2) sage-grouse between 1989 and 2017 to estimate movement rates, survival, and productivity. Newly translocated sage-grouse exhibited farther daily movements (0.58 km/day) and smaller 95% home ranges (89 km2) than residents and previously translocated birds. Daily movements and sex influenced survival, but survival did not differ according to residency status. Furthermore, birds that survived to a second year after translocation exhibited shorter daily movements compared to their first year ( = −0.727 ± 0.157 [SE]), which corresponded with increased survival the second year (T1 = 0.526, T2 = 0.610). This decrease in movements and increase in survival the second year was not apparent in the control group of resident birds, indicating a possible behavioral link to survival of newly translocated sage-grouse. Most productivity metrics were similar for translocated and resident birds, except for nest propensity (i.e., nest initiation rate), which was lower for newly translocated birds (35%) compared to residents and previously translocated birds. Our results reveal that translocated sage-grouse exhibit temporary differences in some demographic parameters in their first year, which later align with those of resident birds in subsequent years. Similarities in adult and nest survival according to residency status further suggest that translocation may prove to be a viable tool for restoring and conserving this species. Continued declines in sage-grouse populations in Washington, however, indicate that habitat conversion and fragmentation may be reducing demographic rates of residents and translocated birds, which warrants further study. © 2019 The Wildlife Society. 相似文献
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Rick J. Baxter Randy T. Larsen Jerran T. Flinders 《The Journal of wildlife management》2013,77(4):802-811
Survival of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) has been well described in large populations across the species range. Very little published information exists, however, on survival rates of translocated sage-grouse or grouse from a long-term (>10 yr) study. Our objectives were to estimate seasonal and annual survival rates; assess differences in survival between resident and translocated, adult and yearling, and male and female sage-grouse; identify environmental and behavioral factors associated with survival; and assess the influence of mammalian predator control on survival rates of radio-marked sage-grouse in Strawberry Valley, Utah from 1998 to 2010. We used a 2-stage model selection approach using Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for sample size (AICc) with known-fate models in Program MARK to evaluate the influences of seasonal, annual, demographic, and behavioral effects on survival rates of sage-grouse. We captured and fitted 535 individual sage-grouse (male and female, resident and translocated) with radio transmitters over a 13-year period and monitored them weekly. The top model of survival, which accounted for 22% of the AICc weight, included 3 seasons that varied by year where rates were influenced by residency, sex, and whether a female initiated a nest. A group-level covariate for the number of canids killed each year received some support as this variable improved model fit compared to identical models without it, although confidence intervals around β estimates overlapped zero slightly. All other demographic or environmental variables showed little or no support. Annual estimates of survival for females ranged between 28% and 84% depending on year and translocation source. Survival was consistently highest during the fall–winter months with a mean monthly survival rate of 0.97 (95% CI = 0.96–0.98). The lack of a control site and other potential confounding factors limit the extent of our inference with respect to predator control. Nonetheless, we suggest managers consider enhancing nesting habitat, translocating sage-grouse, and possibly controlling predators to improve survival rates of sage-grouse. © The Wildlife Society, 2013 相似文献
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Bryan S. Stevens Kerry P. Reese John W. Connelly 《The Journal of wildlife management》2011,75(2):437-449
We used female ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) carcasses as surrogates for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) to study factors influencing survival and detection bias associated with avian fence collision surveys in southern Idaho, USA, during spring 2009. We randomly placed 50 pheasant carcasses on each of 2 study areas, estimated detection probability during fence-line surveys, and monitored survival and retention of carcasses and their associated sign over a 31-day period. Survival modeling suggested site and habitat features had little impact on carcass survival, and constant survival models were most supported by the data. Model averaged carcass daily survival probability was low on both study areas and ranged from 0.776 to 0.812. Survival of all carcass sign varied strongly by location, and the top sign survival model included a site effect parameter. Model averaged daily survival probability for collision sign on the 2 study sites ranged from 0.863 to 0.988 and varied between sites. Logistic regression modeling indicated detection probability of carcasses during fence-line surveys for avian collision victims was influenced by habitat type and microsite shrub height at the carcass location. Carcasses located in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) habitats were detected at a lower rate (0.36) than carcasses in little (A. arbuscula) and black sagebrush (A. nova) habitats (0.71). Increasing shrub height at the carcass location from the little sagebrush mean of 16.5 cm to the big sagebrush mean of 36.0 cm reduced detection probability by approximately 30%. Avian fence collision surveys in sagebrush-steppe habitats should be conducted at ≤2-week sampling intervals to reduce the impact of survival bias on collision rate estimates. Two-week sampling intervals may be too long in areas with low carcass and sign survival, therefore survival rates should be estimated on all study areas to determine the appropriate sampling interval duration. Researchers should be aware of the effects of local vegetation on detection probabilities, and methods to correct detection probabilities based on collision site attributes should be applied to ensure more accurate collision rate estimates. Additionally, caution should be used when aggregating or comparing uncorrected collision data from areas with differing vegetation, as detection probabilities are likely different between sites. © 2011 The Wildlife Society. 相似文献
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Matthew J. Holloran Bradley C. Fedy John Dahlke 《The Journal of wildlife management》2015,79(4):630-640
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Anthony D. Apa Thomas R. Thompson Kerry P. Reese 《The Journal of wildlife management》2017,81(4):652-668
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Jennifer Carpenter Cameron Aldridge Mark S. Boyce 《The Journal of wildlife management》2010,74(8):1806-1814
ABSTRACT Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are dependent on sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) for food and shelter during winter, yet few studies have assessed winter habitat selection, particularly at scales applicable to conservation planning. Small changes to availability of winter habitats have caused drastic reductions in some sage-grouse populations. We modeled winter habitat selection by sage-grouse in Alberta, Canada, by using a resource selection function. Our purpose was to 1) generate a robust winter habitat-selection model for Alberta sage-grouse; 2) spatially depict habitat suitability in a Geographic Information System to identify areas with a high probability of selection and thus, conservation importance; and 3) assess the relative influence of human development, including oil and gas wells, in landscape models of winter habitat selection. Terrain and vegetation characteristics, sagebrush cover, anthropogenic landscape features, and energy development were important in top Akaike's Information Criterion-selected models. During winter, sage-grouse selected dense sagebrush cover and homogenous less rugged areas, and avoided energy development and 2-track truck trails. Sage-grouse avoidance of energy development highlights the need for comprehensive management strategies that maintain suitable habitats across all seasons. 相似文献
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BRENDAN J. MOYNAHAN MARK S. LINDBERG JAY J. ROTELLA JACK WARD THOMAS 《The Journal of wildlife management》2007,71(6):1773-1783
Abstract: We studied greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in northcentral Montana, USA, to examine the relationship between nest success and habitat conditions, environmental variables, and female sage-grouse characteristics. During 2001-2003, we radiomarked 243 female greater sage-grouse, monitored 287 nests, and measured 426 vegetation plots at 4 sites in a 3,200-km2 landscape. Nest survival varied with year, grass canopy cover, daily precipitation with a 1-day lag effect, and nesting attempt. In all years, daily survival rate increased on the day of a rain event and decreased the next day. There was temporal variation in nest success both within and among years: success of early (first 28 d of nesting season) nests ranged from 0.238 (SE = 0.080) in 2001 to 0.316 (SE = 0.055) in 2003, whereas survival of late (last 28 d of nesting season) nests ranged from 0.276 (SE = 0.090) in 2001 to 0.418 (SE = 0.055) in 2003. Renests experienced higher survival than first nests. Grass cover was the only important model term that could be managed, but direction and magnitude of the grass effect varied. Site, shrub and forb canopy cover, and Robel pole reading were less useful predictors of nest success; however, temporal and spatial variation in these habitat covariates was low during our study. We note a marked difference between both values and interpretations of apparent nest success, which have been used almost exclusively in the past, and maximum-likelihood estimates used in our study. Annual apparent nest success (0.46) was, on average, 53% higher than maximum-likelihood estimates that incorporate individual, environmental, and habitat covariates. The difference between estimates was variable (range = +8% to +91%). Management of habitats for nesting sage-grouse should focus on increasing grass cover to increase survival of first nests and contribute to favorable conditions for renesting, which should be less likely if survival of first nests increases. 相似文献
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MICHAEL A. GREGG MIKE R. DUNBAR JOHN A. CRAWFORD 《The Journal of wildlife management》2007,71(2):646-651
ABSTRACT Reduced chick survival has been implicated in declines of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations. Because monitoring survival of unmarked sage-grouse chicks is difficult, radiotelemetry may be an effective technique to estimate survival rates, identify causes of mortality, and collect ecological data. Previous studies have used subcutaneous implants to attach radiotransmitters to hatchlings of several species of birds with precocial young. Previous researchers who used subcutaneous implants in free-ranging populations removed chicks from the capture location and implanted transmitters at an alternate site. Because logistics precluded removing newly hatched greater sage-grouse chicks from the field, we evaluated a method for implanting transmitters at capture locations. We captured 288 chicks from 52 broods and monitored 286 radiomarked chicks daily for 28 days following capture during May and June 2001–2002. Two (>1%) chicks died during surgery and we did not radiomark them. At the end of the monitoring period, 26 chicks were alive and 212 were dead. Most (98%, 207/212) radiomarked chick mortality occurred < 21 days posthatch and predation (82%, 174/212) was the primary cause of death. Necropsies of 22 radiomarked chicks did not indicate inflammation or infection from implants, and they were not implicated in the death of any chicks. Fate of 48 chicks was unknown because of transmitter loss (n = 16), radio failure (n = 29), and brood mixing (n = 3). Overall, the 28-day chick survival rate was 0.220 (SE = 0.028). We found that mortalities related to the implant procedure and transmitter loss were similar to rates reported by previous researchers who removed chicks from capture sites and implanted transmitters at an alternate location. Subcutaneous implants may be a useful method for attaching transmitters to newly hatched sage-grouse chicks to estimate survival rates, identify causes of mortality, and collect ecological data. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT Reduced annual recruitment because of poor habitat quality has been implicated as one of the causative factors in the range-wide decline of sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations since the 1950s. Because chick and brood survival are directly linked to annual recruitment and may be the primary factors that limit sage-grouse population growth, we estimated 28-day survival rates of radiomarked chicks and broods from 2000 to 2003. We examined relationships between survival and several habitat variables measured at brood sites, including food availability (insects and forbs); horizontal cover of sagebrush, grasses, and forbs; and vertical cover of sagebrush and grass. We monitored 506 radiomarked chicks from 94 broods; chick survival was 0.392 (SE = 0.024). We found evidence that both food and cover variables were positively associated with chick survival, including Lepidoptera availability, slender phlox (Phlox gracilis) frequency, total forb cover, and grass cover. The effect of total grass cover on chick survival was dependent on the proportion of short grass. The hazard of an individual chick's death decreased 8.6% (95% CI = −1.0 to 18.3) for each percentage point increase in total grass cover when the proportion of short grass was >70%. Survival of 83 radiomarked broods was 0.673 (SE = 0.055). Lepidoptera availability and slender phlox frequency were the only habitat variables related to brood survival. Risk of total brood loss decreased by 11.8% (95% CI = 1.2–22.5) for each additional Lepidoptera individual and 2.7% (95% CI = −0.4 to 5.8) for each percentage point increase in the frequency of slender phlox found at brood sites. Model selection results revealed that temporal differences in brood survival were associated with variation in the availability of Lepidoptera and slender phlox. Years with high brood survival corresponded with years of high Lepidoptera availability and high slender phlox frequency. These foods likely provided high-quality nutrition for chicks during early growth and development and enhanced survival. Habitat management that promotes Lepidoptera and slender phlox abundance during May and June (i.e., early brood rearing) should have a positive effect on chick and brood survival in the short term and potentially increase annual recruitment. 相似文献