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Charlotte L. Roy James B. Berdeen Mark Clark 《The Journal of wildlife management》2019,83(8):1720-1734
Population models can provide insights into how perturbations of demographic vital rates influence population growth rates (λ) and help prioritize efforts to achieve management goals. Although population models have been developed for numerous duck species, this tool has not been developed for ring-necked ducks (Aythya collaris). Ring-necked ducks are a late-nesting species that may not be surveyed well by the May Waterfowl Survey, which is timed optimally for earlier nesting ducks like the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos). Information specific to ring-necked ducks would help identify important influences on the rate of population growth and the direction of population change. We used data from our own research during 2008–2012, long-term (1975–2016) survey data from northcentral Minnesota, USA, vital rate estimates from the literature, and long-term (1987–2016) banding data to develop a population model for ring-necked ducks. We estimated annual survival and recovery rates of after-hatching-year and hatching-year female ring-necked ducks in Minnesota. Survey results and our matrix models indicated that ring-necked ducks are declining in the forested portion of Minnesota. Thus, we examined a boom-or-bust simulation scenario that might maintain a population through periodic occurrence of exceptional reproductive years in conjunction with high hatching-year survival. Our results indicated that long-term persistence is only expected in this population if reproductive output doubled at the same time that hatching-year survival was at its highest value, or if the population is maintained through immigration. Sensitivity analysis indicated that unit changes in 30-day brood survival will produce the most change in λ in the parameter space observed, although elasticity analysis indicated that proportional changes in annual survival of adult females will produce the largest proportional changes in λ. Management to improve brood survival to increase λ might include improving the habitat quality of brood-rearing lakes, especially those with more open water and less nesting habitat than those used for nesting. Our findings might also help explain disparities between annual breeding waterfowl surveys, which indicate stable or increasing populations, and hunter experiences in the fall. In Minnesota, hunter experiences have not matched expectations based on historical fall numbers and this could occur if regional production declined and fewer young birds were available for harvest. Our findings highlight the need for further study to inform management in this rapidly changing region. © 2019 The Wildlife Society. 相似文献
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Tori D. Mezebish Glenn H. Olsen Michele Goodman Frank C. Rohwer Mark D. McConnell 《The Journal of wildlife management》2020,84(8):1527-1535
North American waterfowl harvest regulations are largely guided by the status of breeding populations. Nonetheless, understanding the demographics of wintering waterfowl populations can elucidate the effects of hunting pressure on population dynamics. The ring-necked duck (Aythya collaris) breeds and winters in all North American administrative flyways and is one of the most abundant and most harvested diving ducks in the Atlantic Flyway. But few studies have investigated the winter ecology of ring-necked ducks. We used a known-fate analysis to estimate period survival probability using data from 87 female ring-necked ducks marked with satellite transmitters in 2 regions of the southern Atlantic Flyway during winters of 2017–2018 and 2018–2019. Winter (128-day) survival probability was higher for individuals in the Red Hills region of southern Georgia and northern Florida (0.875, 95% CI = 0.691–0.952) than individuals in central South Carolina (0.288, 95% CI = 0.082–0.514). We attribute the regional disparity in winter survival probabilities to differences in hunting pressure, which are reflected in the number of harvests we observed in each region. Our findings warrant further investigation into regional variation in winter survival of southern Atlantic Flyway ring-necked ducks, and, specifically, the relationship between variable harvest pressure and winter survival and its influence on ring-necked duck population dynamics and adaptive harvest management decisions. © 2020 The Wildlife Society. 相似文献
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Appropriate sampling effort is crucial for ecologists. Procrustes analysis can be used to tackle this question by quantifying the match between subsamples and the complete dataset. We used stream macroinvertebrates to show how sampling design can be optimized by reducing the number of subsamples and increasing the number of sites. 相似文献
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The determination of atmospheric deposition in forests can be accomplished using technical sampling devices (bulk samplers, wet only samplers), biomonitors or modelling. In Europe, since 1990 moss sampled every five years at up to 7300 places in up to 35 countries was used as biomonitor. In the moss specimens, heavy metals (HM), nitrogen (N, since 2005) and persistent organic pollutants (POPs, since 2010) were determined. Germany participated in all surveys with the exception of that in 2010. For the moss survey 2015, the biomonitoring network applied in the 2005 campaign should be reorganized. To this end, a complex statistically based methodology including a decision support system was developed and implemented. Its application yielded a network with a reduction of sample points from 726 to 402. By use of the data collected in 2005 the performance of the reorganized network did not reveal significant loss of statistical validity. 相似文献
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AARON T. PEARSE STEPHEN J. DINSMORE RICHARD M. KAMINSKI KENNETH J. REINECKE 《The Journal of wildlife management》2008,72(6):1413-1419
Abstract: Researchers have successfully designed aerial surveys that provided precise estimates of wintering populations of ducks over large physiographic regions, yet few conservation agencies have adopted these probability-based sampling designs for their surveys. We designed and evaluated an aerial survey to estimate abundance of wintering mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), dabbling ducks (tribe Anatini) other than mallards, diving ducks (tribes Aythini, Mergini, and Oxyurini), and total ducks in western Mississippi, USA. We used design-based sampling of fixed width transects to estimate population indices (Ǐ), and we used model-based methods to correct population indices for visibility bias and estimate population abundance (Ň) for 14 surveys during winters 2002–2004. Correcting for bias increased estimates of mallards, other dabbling ducks, and diving ducks by an average of 40–48% among all surveys and contributed 48–61% of the estimated variance of Ň. However, mean-squared errors were consistently less for Ň than Ǐ. Estimates of Ň met our goals for precision (CV ≤ 15%) in 7 of 14 surveys for mallards, 5 surveys for other dabbling ducks, no surveys for diving ducks, and 10 surveys for total ducks. Generally, we estimated more mallards and other dabbling ducks in mid- and late winter (Jan-Feb) than early winter (Nov-Dec) and determined that population indices from the late 1980s were nearly 3 times greater than those from our study. We developed a method to display relative densities of ducks spatially as an additional application of survey data. Our study advanced methods of estimating abundance of wintering waterfowl, and we recommend this design for continued monitoring of wintering ducks in western Mississippi and similar physiographic regions. 相似文献
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Jason T. Bried 《Restoration Ecology》2013,21(5):585-591
Abundance is an important population state variable for monitoring restoration progress. Efficient sampling often proves difficult, however, when populations are sparse and patchily distributed, such as early after restoration planting. Adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) can help by concentrating search effort in high density areas, improving the encounter rate and the ability to detect a population change over time. To illustrate the problem, I determined conventional design sample sizes for estimating abundance of 12 natural populations and 24 recently planted populations (divided among two preserves) of Lupinus perennis L. (wild blue lupine). I then determined the variance efficiency of ACS relative to simple random sampling at fixed effort and cost for 10 additional planted populations in two habitats (field vs. shrubland). Conventional design sample sizes to estimate lupine stem density with 10% or 20% margins of error were many times greater than initial sample size and would require sampling at least 90% of the study area. Differences in effort requirements were negligible for the two preserves and natural versus planted populations. At fixed sample size, ACS equaled or outperformed simple random sampling in 40% of populations; this shifted to 50% after correcting for travel time among sample units. ACS appeared to be a better strategy for inter‐seeded shrubland habitat than for planted field habitat. Restoration monitoring programs should consider adaptive sampling designs, especially when reliable abundance estimation under conventional designs proves elusive. 相似文献
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Research examining the effects of electromagnetic fields (EMFs) on human performance and physiology has produced inconsistent results; this might be attributable to low statistical power. Statistical power refers to the probability of obtaining a statistically significant result, given the fact that a real effect exists. The results of a survey of published investigations of the effects of EMFs on human performance and physiology show that statistical power levels are very low, ranging from a mean of.08 for small effect sizes to .46 for large effect sizes. Implications of these findings for the interpretation of results are discussed along with suggestions for increasing statistical power. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc. 相似文献
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MARK D. KONEFF J. ANDREW ROYLE MARK C. OTTO JAMES S. WORTHAM JOHN K. BIDWELL 《The Journal of wildlife management》2008,72(7):1641-1649
Abstract We evaluated double-observer methods for aerial surveys as a means to adjust counts of waterfowl for incomplete detection. We conducted our study in eastern Canada and the northeast United States utilizing 3 aerial-survey crews flying 3 different types of fixed-wing aircraft. We reconciled counts of front- and rear-seat observers immediately following an observation by the rear-seat observer (i.e., on-the-fly reconciliation). We evaluated 6 a priori models containing a combination of several factors thought to influence detection probability including observer, seat position, aircraft type, and group size. We analyzed data for American black ducks (Anas rubripes) and mallards (A. platyrhynchos), which are among the most abundant duck species in this region. The best-supported model for both black ducks and mallards included observer effects. Sample sizes of black ducks were sufficient to estimate observer-specific detection rates for each crew. Estimated detection rates for black ducks were 0.62 (SE = 0.10), 0.63 (SE = 0.06), and 0.74 (SE = 0.07) for pilot-observers, 0.61 (SE = 0.08), 0.62 (SE = 0.06), and 0.81 (SE = 0.07) for other front-seat observers, and 0.43 (SE = 0.05), 0.58 (SE = 0.06), and 0.73 (SE = 0.04) for rear-seat observers. For mallards, sample sizes were adequate to generate stable maximum-likelihood estimates of observer-specific detection rates for only one aerial crew. Estimated observer-specific detection rates for that crew were 0.84 (SE = 0.04) for the pilot-observer, 0.74 (SE = 0.05) for the other front-seat observer, and 0.47 (SE = 0.03) for the rear-seat observer. Estimated observer detection rates were confounded by the position of the seat occupied by an observer, because observers did not switch seats, and by land-cover because vegetation and landform varied among crew areas. Double-observer methods with on-the-fly reconciliation, although not without challenges, offer one viable option to account for detection bias in aerial waterfowl surveys where birds are distributed at low density in remote areas that are inaccessible by ground crews. Double-observer methods, however, estimate only detection rate of animals that are potentially observable given the survey method applied. Auxiliary data and methods must be considered to estimate overall detection rate. 相似文献
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A. C. Trajstman 《Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift》1992,34(1):117-123
The standard approach in calculating the appropriate sample size required to detect a specified difference in the means of two populations for given type I and II errors assumes equal sample sizes in each group. It is shown here that equal sample sizes are usually sub-optimal with respect to total sample size and with respect to total cost of the experiment. This is may be important in experiments involving animals when costs are measured not only in monetary terms but also in terms of animal suffering or inconvenience. 相似文献
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Andrew D. Gilbert Christopher N. Jacques Joseph D. Lancaster Aaron P. Yetter Heath M. Hagy 《The Journal of wildlife management》2020,84(6):1063-1071
Aerial surveys flown at low altitudes allow detection, identification, and enumeration of waterfowl and other waterbirds, but few studies have assessed disturbance to these guilds during the nonbreeding period. Excessive disturbance can potentially increase energy expenditure and exposure to hunting mortality contrary to objectives of many waterfowl sanctuaries where surveys are conducted. We used concurrent ground and aerial surveys to estimate the proportion of waterfowl and other waterbirds that exhibited a noticeable reaction (i.e., disturbance) or left the survey area entirely (i.e., abandonment) during low-altitude (i.e., 60–90 m above ground level) aerial surveys during September through January 2014–2017 in Illinois, USA. Overall, disturbance and abandonment probabilities of waterfowl (x̄ = 14 ± 2% [SE] and x̄ = 3 ± 1%, respectively) during aerial surveys were low. However, disturbance and abandonment probabilities varied considerably among taxa (e.g., American coot [Fulica americana] x̄ = 2 ± 1% and x̄ = 0 ± 0%, respectively; killdeer [Charadrius vociferus] x̄ = 92 ± 8% and x̄ = 17 ± 17%, respectively). Additionally, disturbance and abandonment probabilities of light geese (i.e., snow goose [Chen caerulescens] and Ross's goose [C. rossii]) and greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) were relatively high, and nearly all light geese abandoned a survey location as a result of the aerial survey. Among waterfowl taxa, the odds of disturbance from the survey aircraft were 2.2–6.2 times greater at locations closed to waterfowl hunting than locations open to waterfowl hunting. Temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover were not important predictors of disturbance for most guilds, except for a negative influence of temperature on disturbance of geese. Low-altitude aerial surveys were not a significant source of disturbance for many taxa and abandonment events were rare, except events involving light geese. Periodic low-altitude aerial surveys appear to be compatible with objectives of providing sanctuary conditions for most waterfowl and other waterbirds. © 2020 The Wildlife Society. 相似文献
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Donald J. Brown Madaline M. Cochrane Ron A. Moen 《The Journal of wildlife management》2017,81(5):868-877
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不同采样设计评估鱼类群落效果比较 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
鱼类群落生态学研究结果的准确性很大程度上依赖于采样设计的合理性和准确性,正确的采样调查设计不仅可以降低调查成本,其结果也对渔业资源的评估或者管理起到相当重要的作用.本文利用计算机模拟定点采样、简单随机采样和分层采样,比较了3种采样设计的采样效果、相对误差及相对偏差.结果表明： 定点采样设计的采样效果 (采样效果平均值为3.37)要弱于简单随机采样和分层随机采样 (采样效果平均值为0.961).3种采样设计中,分层采样设计在鱼类群落丰富度评估时表现最好,其采样效果、相对误差和相对偏差表现最佳.随着采样数的增加,分层采样设计的采样效果有所下降,但其采样精度提高. 相似文献
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The Proposed Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment (USEPA, 1996) identify five criteria for determining ecological adversity: nature and intensity of effects, temporal and spatial scale, and potential for recovery. Assessing changes in the assessment endpoints and reaching conclusions on ecological adversity or significance is ultimately founded on information obtained through monitoring and measurements on ecological systems. Although some monitoring programs have previously been criticized for lack of scientific rigor, answers to questions related to ecological and societal significance must come from assessments founded on ecological monitoring efforts. Identifying the appropriate questions and assessment endpoints for monitoring are critical steps in the design and implementation of the monitoring program. However, the process must be completed. This monitoring information subsequently must form the foundation for assessments that interpret and present the ecological and societal signficance of observed status and trends in resource condition. 相似文献
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Aerial survey is an important, widely employed approach for estimating free‐ranging wildlife over large or inaccessible study areas. We studied how a distance covariate influenced probability of double‐observer detections for birds counted during a helicopter survey in Canada’s central Arctic. Two observers, one behind the other but visually obscured from each other, counted birds in an incompletely shared field of view to a distance of 200 m. Each observer assigned detections to one of five 40‐m distance bins, guided by semi‐transparent marks on aircraft windows. Detections were recorded with distance bin, taxonomic group, wing‐flapping behavior, and group size. We compared two general model‐based estimation approaches pertinent to sampling wildlife under such situations. One was based on double‐observer methods without distance information, that provide sampling analogous to that required for mark–recapture (MR) estimation of detection probability, , and group abundance, , along a fixed‐width strip transect. The other method incorporated double‐observer MR with a categorical distance covariate (MRD). A priori, we were concerned that estimators from MR models were compromised by heterogeneity in due to un‐modeled distance information; that is, more distant birds are less likely to be detected by both observers, with the predicted effect that would be biased high, and biased low. We found that, despite increased complexity, MRD models (ΔAICc range: 0–16) fit data far better than MR models (ΔAICc range: 204–258). However, contrary to expectation, the more naïve MR estimators of were biased low in all cases, but only by 2%–5% in most cases. We suspect that this apparently anomalous finding was the result of specific limitations to, and trade‐offs in, visibility by observers on the survey platform used. While MR models provided acceptable point estimates of group abundance, their far higher stranded errors (0%–40%) compared to MRD estimates would compromise ability to detect temporal or spatial differences in abundance. Given improved precision of MRD models relative to MR models, and the possibility of bias when using MR methods from other survey platforms, we recommend avian ecologists use MRD protocols and estimation procedures when surveying Arctic bird populations. 相似文献