Density-Dependent Harvest Modeling for the Eastern Wild Turkey

Abstract Many current wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) harvest models assume density-independent population dynamics. We developed an alternative model incorporating both nonlinear density-dependence and stochastic density-independent effects on wild turkey populations. We examined model sensitivity to parameter changes in 5% increments and determined mean spring and fall harvests and their variability in the short term (3 yr) and long term (10 yr) from proportional harvesting under these conditions. In the long term, population growth rates were most sensitive to poult:female ratios and the form of density dependence. The nonlinear density-dependent effect produced a population that maximized yield at 40% carrying capacity. The model indicated that a spring or fall proportional harvest could be maximized for fall harvest rates between 0% and 13% of the population, assuming a 15% spring male harvest and 5% spring illegal female kill. Combined spring and fall harvests could be maximized at a 9% fall harvest, under the same assumptions. Variability in population growth and harvest rates increased uncertainty in spring and fall harvests and the probability of overharvesting annual yield, with growth rate variation having the strongest effect. Model simulations suggested fall harvest rates should be conservative (≤9%) for most management strategies.     

Estimation of a Nonlinear Density-Dependence Parameter for Wild Turkey

Abstract: Although previous research and theory has suggested that wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) populations may be subject to some form of density dependence, there has been no effort to estimate and incorporate a density-dependence parameter into wild turkey population models. To estimate a functional relationship for density dependence in wild turkey, we analyzed a set of harvest-index time series from 11 state wildlife agencies. We tested for lagged correlations between annual harvest indices using partial autocorrelation analysis. We assessed the ability of the density-dependent theta-Ricker model to explain harvest indices over time relative to exponential or random walk growth models. We tested the homogeneity of the density-dependence parameter estimates (θ) from 3 different harvest indices (spring harvest no. reported harvest/effort, survey harvest/effort) and calculated a weighted average based on each estimate's variance and its estimated covariance with the other indices. To estimate the potential bias in parameter estimates from measurement error, we conducted a simulation study using the theta-Ricker with known values and lognormally distributed measurement error. Partial autocorrelation function analysis indicated that harvest indices were significantly correlated only with their value at the previous time step. The theta-Ricker model performed better than the exponential growth or random walk models for all 3 indices. Simulation of known parameters and measurement error indicated a strong positive upward bias in the density-dependent parameter estimate, with increasing measurement error. The average density-dependence estimate, corrected for measurement error ranged 0.25 ≤ θC ≤ 0.49, depending on the amount of measurement error and assumed spring harvest rate. We infer that density dependence is nonlinear in wild turkey, where growth rates are maximized at 39-42% of carrying capacity. The annual yield produced by density-dependent population growth will tend to be less than that caused by extrinsic environmental factors. This study indicates that both density-dependent and density-independent processes are important to wild turkey population growth, and we make initial suggestions on incorporating both into harvest management strategies.     

Spatial synchrony of prairie ducks: roles of wetland abundance, distance, and agricultural cover

Populations exhibit spatial synchrony when their numbers rise and fall in concert at several sites over their distribution. I examined the relationship between synchrony, abundance of wetlands (ponds), distance, and agricultural cover using count data of ten duck species counted in 23 aerial survey strata on the mid-continental prairies of North America. Expansion of agriculture may have resulted in increased synchrony of duck populations through increased foraging efficiency of nomadic predators and/or if the homogenization of nesting habitat has removed habitat features that allow differential local responses to large-scale population drivers such as precipitation. As a measure of synchrony, I calculated all pair-wise cross-correlation coefficients based on population growth rates (r _t ) at each survey stratum, and then regressed these correlation coefficients against measures of cross-correlation of pond (wetland) counts, distance between strata, and mean percent area of strata seeded to row crops. Synchrony for most species was most strongly related to synchrony of wetland availability among sites, and decreased with distance between sites. Synchrony of ducks that nest over water showed little effect of agricultural cover, whereas the effect of agricultural cover on synchrony of upland nesting ducks differed by species. Mobile large-bodied species showed evidence of increased synchrony due to agricultural cover, whereas smaller-bodied, more philopatric species showed evidence of decreased synchrony due to agricultural cover.     

Are bark beetle outbreaks less synchronous than forest Lepidoptera outbreaks?

Comparisons of intraspecific spatial synchrony across multiple epidemic insect species can be useful for generating hypotheses about major determinants of population patterns at larger scales. The present study compares patterns of spatial synchrony in outbreaks of six epidemic bark beetle species in North America and Europe. Spatial synchrony among populations of the Eurasian spruce bark beetle Ips typographus was significantly higher than for the other bark beetle species. The spatial synchrony observed in epidemic bark beetles was also compared with previously published patterns of synchrony in outbreaks of defoliating forest Lepidoptera, revealing a marked difference between these two major insect groups. The bark beetles exhibited a generally lower degree of spatial synchrony than the Lepidoptera, possibly because bark beetles are synchronized by different weather variables that are acting on a smaller scale than those affecting the Lepidoptera, or because inherent differences in their dynamics leads to more cyclic oscillations and more synchronous spatial dynamics in the Lepidoptera.     

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are both prominent manifestations of global change, but there is little knowledge on the specific mechanisms of how climate change may modify the effects of habitat fragmentation, for example, by altering dynamics of spatially structured populations. The long‐term viability of metapopulations is dependent on independent dynamics of local populations, because it mitigates fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole. Metapopulation viability will be compromised if climate change increases spatial synchrony in weather conditions associated with population growth rates. We studied a recently reported increase in metapopulation synchrony of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Finnish archipelago, to see if it could be explained by an increase in synchrony of weather conditions. For this, we used 23 years of butterfly survey data together with monthly weather records for the same period. We first examined the associations between population growth rates within different regions of the metapopulation and weather conditions during different life‐history stages of the butterfly. We then examined the association between the trends in the synchrony of the weather conditions and the synchrony of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics. We found that precipitation from spring to late summer are associated with the M. cinxia per capita growth rate, with early summer conditions being most important. We further found that the increase in metapopulation synchrony is paralleled by an increase in the synchrony of weather conditions. Alternative explanations for spatial synchrony, such as increased dispersal or trophic interactions with a specialist parasitoid, did not show paralleled trends and are not supported. The climate driven increase in M. cinxia metapopulation synchrony suggests that climate change can increase extinction risk of spatially structured populations living in fragmented landscapes by altering their dynamics.     

Factors influencing rate of decline in a Merriam's wild turkey population

We investigated population growth rate (λ) for a Merriam's wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) population in the northern Black Hills, South Dakota, USA. We constructed and evaluated a females-only matrix population model. Our estimate of asymptotic λ, derived from estimates of vital rates obtained from 2016–2018 was 0.74 (95% CI = 0.60, 0.88), which indicates that the vital rates were inadequate to sustain the population. Elasticity values were highest for changes in adult survival probability followed by, in order, changes in juvenile survival, yearling survival, and adult reproduction. We could only achieve stable or growing populations (i.e., λ ≥ 1) by increasing the probability of adult and yearling survival (holding all other vital rates constant). Estimated adult survival rate in the work reported here was lower than values reported for other populations in the Black Hills; therefore, managing for increased female survival (≥0.68) may be the most practical strategy for promoting wild turkey population growth in this system. We recommend no female harvest during any open turkey season.     

Genotyping of microsatellite markers to study genetic structure of the wild striped snakehead Channa striata in Malaysia

Genetic variability and differences in wild striped snakehead Channa striata from Malaysia were analysed by genotyping nine novel nuclear microsatellite loci. Analysis revealed moderate‐to‐high genetic diversity in most of the populations, indicative of large effective population sizes. The highly diversified populations are admixed populations and, therefore, can be recommended as potential candidates for selective breeding and conservation since they each contain most of the alleles found in their particular region. Three homogenous groups of the wild populations were identified, apparently separated by effective barriers, in accordance with contemporary drainage patterns. The highest population pairwise F_ST found between members of the same group reflects the ancient population connectivity; yet prolonged geographical isolation resulted in adaptation of alleles to local contemporary environmental change. A significant relationship between genetic distance and geographical isolation was observed (r = 0·644, P < 0·01). Anthropogenic perturbations indicated apparent genetic proximity between distant populations.     

Similarity in seasonal flow regimes,not regional environmental classifications explain synchrony in brown trout population dynamics in France

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Geographical variation in the spatial synchrony of a forest-defoliating insect: isolation of environmental and spatial drivers

Despite the pervasiveness of spatial synchrony of population fluctuations in virtually every taxon, it remains difficult to disentangle its underlying mechanisms, such as environmental perturbations and dispersal. We used multiple regression of distance matrices (MRMs) to statistically partition the importance of several factors potentially synchronizing the dynamics of the gypsy moth, an invasive species in North America, exhibiting outbreaks that are partially synchronized over long distances (approx. 900 km). The factors considered in the MRM were synchrony in weather conditions, spatial proximity and forest-type similarity. We found that the most likely driver of outbreak synchrony is synchronous precipitation. Proximity played no apparent role in influencing outbreak synchrony after accounting for precipitation, suggesting dispersal does not drive outbreak synchrony. Because a previous modelling study indicated weather might indirectly synchronize outbreaks through synchronization of oak masting and generalist predators that feed upon acorns, we also examined the influence of weather and proximity on synchrony of acorn production. As we found for outbreak synchrony, synchrony in oak masting increased with synchrony in precipitation, though it also increased with proximity. We conclude that precipitation could synchronize gypsy moth populations directly, as in a Moran effect, or indirectly, through effects on oak masting, generalist predators or diseases.     

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long‐term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic

The ‘Moran effect’ predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large‐scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high‐Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8–324 km apart suggested that density‐dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one ‘continental’ reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density‐dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift—with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity—led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.     

Spatial dynamics of Microtus vole populations in continuous and fragmented agricultural landscapes

Small mammal populations often exhibit large-scale spatial synchrony, which is purportedly caused by stochastic weather-related environmental perturbations, predation or dispersal. To elucidate the relative synchronizing effects of environmental perturbations from those of dispersal movements of small mammalian prey or their predators, we investigated the spatial dynamics of Microtus vole populations in two differently structured landscapes which experience similar patterns of weather and climatic conditions. Vole and predator abundances were monitored for three years on 28 agricultural field sites arranged into two 120-km-long transect lines in western Finland. Sites on one transect were interconnected by continuous agricultural farmland (continuous landscape), while sites on the other were isolated from one another to a varying degree by mainly forests (fragmented landscape). Vole populations exhibited large-scale (>120 km) spatial synchrony in fluctuations, which did not differ in degree between the landscapes or decline with increasing distance between trapping sites. However, spatial variation in vole population growth rates was higher in the fragmented than in the continuous landscape. Although vole-eating predators were more numerous in the continuous agricultural landscape than in the fragmented, our results suggest that predators do not exert a great influence on the degree of spatial synchrony of vole population fluctuations, but they may contribute to bringing out-of-phase prey patches towards a regional density level. The spatial dynamics of vole populations were similar in both fragmented and continuous landscapes despite inter-landscape differences in both predator abundance and possibilities of vole dispersal. This implies that the primary source of synchronization lies in a common weather-related environment.     

Road-Based Surveys for Estimating Wild Turkey Density in the Texas Rolling Plains

Abstract: Line-transect-based distance sampling has been used to estimate density of several wild bird species including wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo). We used inflatable turkey decoys during autumn (Aug-Nov) and winter (Dec-Mar) 2003-2005 at study sites in the Texas Rolling Plains, USA, to simulate Rio Grande wild turkey (M. g. intermedia) flocks. We evaluated detectability of flocks using logistic regression models. Our modeling effort suggested that distance to a flock and flock size played important roles in flock detectability. We also conducted surveys from roads for wild turkeys during November 2004-January 2006. The detection probability of decoy flocks was similar to wild turkey flocks during winter (decoy flock, 69.3 ± 6.2% [x̄ ± 95% CI]; wild turkey flock, 62.2 ± 18.3%) and autumn (decoy flock, 44.1 ± 5.1%; wild turkey flock, 44.7 ± 25.6%), which suggested that using decoys was appropriate for evaluating detectability of wild turkey flocks from roads. We conducted computer simulations to evaluate the performance of line-transect-based distance sampling and examined the power to detect trends in population change. Simulations suggested that population density may be underestimated by 12% during inter and 29% during autumn. Such bias occurred because of incomplete detectability of flocks near roads. Winter surveys tended to have less bias, lower relative variability, and greater power than did autumn surveys. During winter surveys, power was sufficient (≥0.80) to detect a 10-25% change in population density in 8-12 years using ≥100 16-km transects or ≥80 32-km transects. We concluded line-transect-based distance sampling from roads is an efficient, effective, and inexpensive technique for monitoring Rio Grande wild turkey populations across large scales.     

Random Effects Models and Multistage Estimation Procedures for Statistical Population Reconstruction of Small Game Populations

Recently, statistical population models using age-at-harvest data have seen increasing use for monitoring of harvested wildlife populations. Even more recently, detailed evaluation of model performance for long-lived, large game animals indicated that the use of random effects to incorporate unmeasured environmental variation, as well as second-stage Horvitz-Thompson-type estimators of abundance, provided more reliable estimates of total abundance than previous models. We adapt this new modeling framework to small game, age-at-harvest models with only young-of-the-year and adult age classes. Our Monte Carlo simulation results indicate superior model performance for the new modeling framework, evidenced by lower bias and proper confidence interval coverage. We apply this method to male wild turkey harvest in the East Ozarks turkey productivity region, Missouri, USA, where statistical population reconstruction indicates a relatively stationary population for 1996–2010.     

Spatial (a)synchrony in population fluctuations of five plant species in fragmented habitats

The spatial scale at which populations show synchronous temporal fluctuations in abundance, relative to the spatial scale over which they can disperse, may influence the persistence of local and regional populations. There have been frequent demonstrations of spatial synchrony in population dynamics of animal populations. But few studies have investigated the degree of spatial synchrony in less mobile taxa, e.g. plants, where life history, dispersal and interaction with the environment would be different due to a sessile phase. This study has during three years investigated the synchrony in local population size changes in four short-lived species, and during a nine-year period for one long-lived species, in a semi-natural grassland landscape in southern Sweden. The spatial scale of this study was less than 15 km, which is quite small in comparison with other studies, but the temporal scale was of similar magnitude as the few studies on plant abundances and synchrony. When using detrended estimates of population size change, a significant pattern of decreasing synchrony with increasing distance was found for the two short-lived species that were most confined to manage semi-natural grasslands. Spatial synchrony was detected up to a few km. However, the species displayed synchrony in different years. The degree of synchrony can thus vary considerably across years and among species. Spatially autocorrelated weather conditions could partly explain the spatial scale of synchrony found during certain time intervals. However, the prevailing asynchrony suggests that local factors dominate the dynamics of the populations at the investigated scale.     

The Moran effect revisited: spatial population synchrony under global warming

The world is spatially autocorrelated. Both abiotic and biotic properties are more similar among neighboring than distant locations, and their temporal co-fluctuations also decrease with distance. P. A. P. Moran realized the ecological importance of such ‘spatial synchrony’ when he predicted that isolated populations subject to identical log-linear density-dependent processes should have the same correlation in fluctuations of abundance as the correlation in environmental noise. The contribution from correlated weather to synchrony of populations has later been coined the ‘Moran effect’. Here, we investigate the potential role of the Moran effect in large-scale ecological outcomes of global warming. Although difficult to disentangle from dispersal and species interaction effects, there is compelling evidence from across taxa and ecosystems that spatial environmental synchrony causes population synchrony. Given this, and the accelerating number of studies reporting climate change effects on local population dynamics, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the implications of global warming for spatial population synchrony. However, a handful of studies of insects, birds, plants, mammals and marine plankton indicate decadal-scale changes in population synchrony due to trends in environmental synchrony. We combine a literature review with modeling to outline potential pathways for how global warming, through changes in the mean, variability and spatial autocorrelation of weather, can impact population synchrony over time. This is particularly likely under a ‘generalized Moran effect’, i.e. when relaxing Moran's strict assumption of identical log-linear density-dependence, which is highly unrealistic in the wild. Furthermore, climate change can influence spatial population synchrony indirectly, through its effects on dispersal and species interactions. Because changes in population synchrony may cascade through food-webs, we argue that the (generalized) Moran effect is key to understanding and predicting impacts of global warming on large-scale ecological dynamics, with implications for extinctions, conservation and management.     

Population structure and genetic diversity distribution in wild and cultivated populations of the traditional Chinese medicinal plant Magnolia officinalis subsp. biloba (Magnoliaceae)

Magnolia officinalis subsp. biloba, a traditional Chinese medicinal plant, experienced severe declines in the number of populations and the number of individuals in the late 20th century due to the widespread harvest of the subspecies. A large-scale cultivation program was initiated and cultivated populations rapidly recovered the loss in individual plant numbers, but wild populations remained small as a consequence of cutting. In this study, the levels of genetic variation and genetic structure of seven wild populations and five domestic populations of M. officinalis subsp. biloba were estimated employing an AFLP methodology. The plant exhibited a relatively high level of intra-population genetic diversity (h = 0.208 and H _j = 0.268). The cultivated populations maintained approximately 95% of the variation exhibited in wild populations, indicating a slight genetic bottleneck in the cultivated populations. The analysis of genetic differentiation revealed that most of the AFLP diversity resided within populations both for the wild group (78.22%) and the cultivated group (85.92%). Genetic differentiation among populations in the wild group was significant (F _ST = 0.1092, P < 0.005), suggesting wild population level genetic structure. Principal coordinates analysis (PCO) did not discern among wild and cultivated populations, indicating that alleles from the wild population were maintained in the cultivated gene pool. Results from the present study provide important baseline data for effectively conserving the genetic resources of this medicinal subspecies.     

Wild turkey (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Meleagris gallopavo</Emphasis>) detectability from helicopters and ramifications for estimating abundance

Aerial surveys have been used to estimate abundance for several wild bird species but its application for wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) populations has been limited. We surveyed Rio Grande wild turkey (M. gallopavo intermedia) populations during March 2006 using an R44 helicopter. We used flocks with radio-tagged birds to estimate flock detectability. We also used simulations to evaluate accuracy and precision and examine power to detect trends in population change. We observed that wild turkey flock detectability was 94.7% (74.0–99.9%; 95% CI). Our simulations suggested helicopter surveys would underestimate abundance by about 5.6% (4.6% CV). Surveying 980 to 1,960 km² (requiring 27 to 55 h of flight time) can provide sufficient power (≥0.80) to detect a 10 to 25% change in abundance over a 4- to 5-year period.     

Genetic variation of wild litchi (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Litchi chinensis</Emphasis> Sonn. subsp. <Emphasis Type="Italic">chinensis</Emphasis>) revealed by microsatellites

Understanding the amount and distribution of genetic diversity in natural populations can inform the conservation strategy for the species in question. In this study, genetic variation at eight nuclear microsatellite loci was used to investigate genetic diversity and population structure of wild litchi (Litchi chinensis Sonn. subsp. chinensis). Totally 215 individuals were sampled, representing nine populations of wild litchi. All eight loci were polymorphic, with a total of 51 alleles. The expected heterozygosity in the nine populations ranged from 0.367 to 0.638 with an average value of 0.526. Inbreeding within wild litchi populations was indicated by a strong heterozygote defect. Significant bottleneck events were detected in the populations from Yunnan and Vietnam, which could be responsible for lower levels of genetic diversity in these populations. Measures of genetic differentiation (F _ST = 0.269) indicated strong differentiation among wild litchi populations. Significant correlation was found between genetic differentiation and geographical distance (r = 0.655, P = 0.002), indicating a strong isolation by distance in these populations. Bayesian clustering suggested genetic separation among three regional groups, namely, the western group, the central group and the eastern group. Some conservation strategies for wild litchi populations were also proposed based on our results.     

Assessing Allowable Take of Migratory Birds

ABSTRACT Legal removal of migratory birds from the wild occurs for several reasons, including subsistence, sport harvest, damage control, and the pet trade. We argue that harvest theory provides the basis for assessing the impact of authorized take, advance a simplified rendering of harvest theory known as potential biological removal as a useful starting point for assessing take, and demonstrate this approach with a case study of depredation control of black vultures (Coragyps atratus) in Virginia, USA. Based on data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and other sources, we estimated that the black vulture population in Virginia was 91,190 (95% credible interval = 44,520-212,100) in 2006. Using a simple population model and available estimates of life-history parameters, we estimated the intrinsic rate of growth (r_max) to be in the range 7–14%, with 10.6% a plausible point estimate. For a take program to seek an equilibrium population size on the conservative side of the yield curve, the rate of take needs to be less than that which achieves a maximum sustained yield (0.5 × r_max). Based on the point estimate for r_max and using the lower 60% credible interval for population size to account for uncertainty, these conditions would be met if the take of black vultures in Virginia in 2006 was <3,533 birds. Based on regular monitoring data, allowable harvest should be adjusted annually to reflect changes in population size. To initiate discussion about how this assessment framework could be related to the laws and regulations that govern authorization of such take, we suggest that the Migratory Bird Treaty Act requires only that take of native migratory birds be sustainable in the long-term, that is, sustained harvest rate should be <r_max. Further, the ratio of desired harvest rate to 0.5 X r_max may be a useful metric for ascertaining the applicability of specific requirements of the National Environmental Protection Act.     

Spatial synchrony in Drosophila suzukii population dynamics along elevational gradients

1. Spotted wing drosophila (SWD; Drosophila suzukii Matsumura, 1931) is a polyphagous invasive crop pest native of Southeast Asia able to attack a wide array of host plant species in both cultivated and natural habitats. SWD is now widespread in several mountain regions, but it is still unclear how the species moves to different elevations across the seasons, and how this depends on environmental conditions and food resources. 2. The temporal dynamics of several SWD populations were studied along elevational gradients in the Alps using a synchrony analysis. Twelve transects were selected, covering an overall elevational gradient of 2100 m. SWD abundance was monitored every 2 weeks during the growing season (from June to November 2015) when cultivated and wild hosts are potentially susceptible (i.e. fruits are ripe). 3. Spotted wing drosophila were widely distributed along all the tested elevations, revealing synchrony in population dynamics across ranges in elevation and geographic distance. Synchronised populations were observed at distances of up to 100 km at sites with similar temperatures. The high dispersal potential of the pest together with the seasonal variation in temperature are likely to be the dominant mechanisms causing the observed spatial synchrony. A factor that seemed to reduce synchrony is the large concentration of host plants (i.e. crop) in lowland agricultural landscapes. 4. The spatial synchrony in pest abundance at large spatial scale indicates that the risk of SWD outbreaks is highly dependent on drivers beyond the control of traditional field‐scale management. These findings could help in developing monitoring and predictive models of SWD population dynamics.