Estimation of a Nonlinear Density-Dependence Parameter for Wild Turkey

Abstract: Although previous research and theory has suggested that wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) populations may be subject to some form of density dependence, there has been no effort to estimate and incorporate a density-dependence parameter into wild turkey population models. To estimate a functional relationship for density dependence in wild turkey, we analyzed a set of harvest-index time series from 11 state wildlife agencies. We tested for lagged correlations between annual harvest indices using partial autocorrelation analysis. We assessed the ability of the density-dependent theta-Ricker model to explain harvest indices over time relative to exponential or random walk growth models. We tested the homogeneity of the density-dependence parameter estimates (θ) from 3 different harvest indices (spring harvest no. reported harvest/effort, survey harvest/effort) and calculated a weighted average based on each estimate's variance and its estimated covariance with the other indices. To estimate the potential bias in parameter estimates from measurement error, we conducted a simulation study using the theta-Ricker with known values and lognormally distributed measurement error. Partial autocorrelation function analysis indicated that harvest indices were significantly correlated only with their value at the previous time step. The theta-Ricker model performed better than the exponential growth or random walk models for all 3 indices. Simulation of known parameters and measurement error indicated a strong positive upward bias in the density-dependent parameter estimate, with increasing measurement error. The average density-dependence estimate, corrected for measurement error ranged 0.25 ≤ θC ≤ 0.49, depending on the amount of measurement error and assumed spring harvest rate. We infer that density dependence is nonlinear in wild turkey, where growth rates are maximized at 39-42% of carrying capacity. The annual yield produced by density-dependent population growth will tend to be less than that caused by extrinsic environmental factors. This study indicates that both density-dependent and density-independent processes are important to wild turkey population growth, and we make initial suggestions on incorporating both into harvest management strategies.     

Rio Grande Wild Turkey Habitat Selection in the Southern Great Plains

ABSTRACT We recorded telemetry locations from 1,129 radiotagged turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo intermedia) on 4 study areas in the Texas Panhandle and southwestern Kansas, USA, from 2000 to 2004. Analyses of telemetry locations indicated both sexes selected riparian vegetative zones. Females did not select grazed or nongrazed pastures for daily movements. However, females did select nongrazed pastures for nest sites on 2 study areas and males selected for grazed pastures at one study area during the breeding season. We compared nest sites (n = 351) to random sites using logistic regression, which indicated height of visual obstruction, percent canopy cover, and percent bare ground provided the highest predictive power (P ≤ 0.003) for characteristics describing nest-site selection. Nest-site vegetative characteristics between vegetative zones differed primarily in composition: upland zone nest sites had more (P ≤ 0.001) shrubs and riparian zone nest sites had more (P ≤ 0.001) grass. There were no differences in measured nest site vegetative characteristics between pasture types, but there were differences between available nesting cover in grazed and nongrazed pastures. Random plots in grazed pastures had less grass cover (P ≤ 0.001) and more bare ground (P = 0.002). Because of cattle impacts on average grass height and availability, grazing would likely have the highest impact on nesting in riparian zones due to turkey use of grass as nesting cover. An appropriate grazing plan to promote Rio Grande turkey nesting habitat would include grazing upland zones in the spring, when it likely has little impact on nesting-site selection, and grazing riparian zones following breeding season completion. Grazing at light to moderate intensities with periods of rest did not affect male turkey pasture use and may have continued to maintain open areas used by male turkeys for displaying purposes.     

Invertebrate Abundance at Rio Grande Wild Turkey Brood Locations

ABSTRACT Abundance of Rio Grande wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo intermedia) has declined in the southeastern Edwards Plateau (EP) of Texas, USA, whereas abundance has remained stable in the northwestern EP. Invertebrates are a critical protein source for poults < 6 weeks posthatch. We collected invertebrates at brood and paired locations in both the stable and declining regions. Our objective was to determine if differences in invertebrate abundance existed in regions typified by declining versus stable Rio Grande wild turkey abundance. We found no difference in invertebrate abundance between brood or paired locations within regions, but invertebrate abundance, whether measured as dry mass or frequency, was greater in the stable region. Decreased invertebrate abundance may have contributed to the decline in Rio Grande wild turkey abundance in the southeastern Edwards Plateau.     

Habitat Use and Survival of Preflight Wild Turkey Broods

Abstract: Wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) broods spend the first several days of life on the ground until poult flight capabilities are attained. This is a critical period of wild turkey life history, with poult survival ranging from 12% to 52%. We measured vegetation in plots used by Rio Grande wild turkey (M. g. intermedia) preflight broods at 4 sites in southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle, USA, to determine microhabitat selection for ground roosting and to determine if microhabitat was related to poult survival. Hens selected ground-roost locations with more visual obstruction from multiple observation heights than random sites. Plots surrounding ground roosts had 1) greater visual obstruction; 2) increased tree decay; 3) higher percent grass, shrub, litter, and forb cover; and 4) lower percent bare ground cover than random sites. Grass, shrubs, and downed trees appeared to provide desired cover for ground-roosting broods. Poult survival increased with age of poult, size of brood, and density of shrubs 1–2 m tall. Plots used by broods <10 days old with above average survival contained more visual obstruction and shrubs than plots used by broods 10–16 days old with above average survival, signifying a shift in habitat use by successful broods as poults attain flight abilities. Density of shrubs 1–2 m tall in brood-use areas appears to be important for poult survival to 16 days of age on southern Great Plains rangeland habitats. Ground-level vegetative cover appears to be a significant factor in preflight poult survival. Provisions of ground-level vegetative cover should be considered during wild turkey brooding periods where increased poult survival is desired.     

Behavior and Movement of Wild Turkey Broods

Behavioral and movement ecology of broods are among the most poorly understood aspects of wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) reproductive ecology. Recent declines in wild turkey productivity throughout the southeastern United States necessitate comprehensive evaluations of brood ecology across multiple spatial scales. We captured and marked 408 female wild turkeys with global positioning system (GPS)-transmitters across 9 pine (Pinus spp.)-dominated study sites in the southeastern United States during 2014–2019. We evaluated various aspects of the behavioral and movement ecology of 94 brood-rearing females until brood failure or 28 days after hatch (i.e., when poults are classified as juveniles). We found that 34 (36.2%) females had broods (≥1 poult) survive to 28 days after hatch. Broods moved >500 m away from nest sites the day after hatching, and then moved progressively farther away from nest sites over time. Daily movements increased markedly the first 3 days after hatching, and broods moved >1,000 m/day on average thereafter. Females roosted broods an average of 202 m away from nest sites the first night after hatching, but distances between consecutive ground or tree roosts were variable thereafter. Daily core areas increased from 0.8 ha the day of hatch to 4.6 ha by day 28, and range sizes increased from 6.9 ha to 27.9 ha by day 28. Broods tended to consistently select open land cover types, whereas selection for other land cover types varied temporally after hatch day. Broods spent 89% of their time foraging. Predicted daily survival for broods decreased rapidly with increasing distance moved during the initial 3 days after hatching and showed less variation during the subsequent 2 weeks post-hatch. Our findings parallel previous researchers noting that the most critical period for brood survival is the first week after hatch day. Previous researchers have attempted to identify vegetative communities used by broods under the assumption that these communities are a primary factor influencing brood success; however, our results suggest that brood survival is influenced by behavioral decisions related to movements during early brooding periods. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Hunting Activity Effects on Roost Selection by Male Wild Turkeys

Roosting is an important component of wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo; turkey) ecology as roosts provide security from predators and inclement weather. Males call (gobble) from roosts during the reproductive season, and roost locations are important for maximizing access to females and transmission of calls across the landscape, while also minimizing predation risk. Spring hunting of male turkeys occurs during the reproductive season, and hunting activity influences male behaviors and calling. Because roost sites are important for wild turkey ecology, we evaluated roost site selection and fidelity of male turkeys relative to land cover types, vegetative characteristics, and the presence of hunting activity during 2017–2018 in Georgia, USA. Prior to onset of hunting, males selected roosts nearest to hardwood and pine (Pinus spp.) forests. Roost site fidelity was low and distances between roosts were large. After onset of hunting, males selected pine forests less and exhibited greater plasticity in roost selection while fidelity remained minimal, suggesting that males may have altered selection to mitigate risk from hunting while maintaining the strategy of moving about their ranges and roosting at different sites on consecutive nights. Future research should examine potential effects of hunting-induced shifts in resource selection on other aspects of male turkey behavior and ecology. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Synchrony in a Wild Turkey Population and its Relationship to Spring Weather

Abstract: Synchrony is an important component of wildlife population dynamics because it describes spatial pattern in temporal population fluctuations. The strength and spatial extent of synchrony can provide information about the extrinsic and intrinsic forces that shape population structure. Wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) populations undergo annual fluctuations, possibly due to variation in weather during the reproductive season. To determine if spring weather plays a role in synchronizing wild turkey populations, we used a modified Mantel-type spatial autocorrelation procedure to measure the synchrony in fall wild turkey harvest data collected in 443 townships from 1990 to 1995 and compared this to the pattern of synchrony in spring weather variables (May rainfall and temp) over the same period. We measured correlation using Spearman correlation coefficients between the total fall harvests from 1990 to 1995 for each pair of townships, and sorted pairs into 6 50-km distance intervals. We calculated a mean correlation coefficient for each interval and estimated its P-value using resampling. We found moderately significant synchrony in the fall harvest (r_s = 0.12-0.34, P < 0.008) among township pairs <150 km apart, but no significant synchrony beyond this distance. In contrast, both May temperature (r = 0.82-0.90, P < 0.001) and rainfall (r = 0.49-0.76, P < 0.001) were strongly synchronized across all 6 distance intervals. Visual inspection of time series in the wild turkey fall harvest suggests that populations may be synchronized in some years when weather promotes high reproductive success (i.e., a synchronized growth peak) and asynchronous in other years. Knowledge of the spatial dynamics of wild turkey populations will aid wildlife managers in estimating population change, setting harvest quotas, and managing habitat.     

Opportunistic Predation of Wild Turkey Nests by Wild Pigs

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa; i.e., feral hogs, feral swine) are considered an invasive species in the United States. Where they occur, they damage agricultural crops and wildlife habitat. Wild pigs also depredate native wildlife, particularly ground-nesting bird species during nesting season. In areas inhabited by wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo), nest destruction caused by wild pigs may affect recruitment. There is debate whether wild pigs actively seek ground-nesting bird nests or depredate them opportunistically. To address this debate, in 2016 we examined the movements of wild pigs relative to artificial wild turkey nests (i.e., control [no artificial nests], moderate density [12.5–25 nests/km²], and high density [25–50 nests/km²]) throughout the nesting season (i.e., early, peak, and late) in south-central Texas, USA. We found no evidence that wild pigs learned to seek and depredate wild turkey nests relative to nest density or nesting periods. Despite wild pigs being important nest predators, depredation was not a functional response to a pulsed food resource and can only be associated with overlapping densities of wild pigs and nests. Protecting reproductive success of wild turkeys will require reducing wild pig densities in nesting habitat prior to nesting season. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Aerial Surveys for Estimating Wild Turkey Abundance in the Texas Rolling Plains

Abstract: Aerial surveys have been used to estimate abundance of several wild bird species including wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo). We used inflatable turkey decoys at 3 study sites in the Texas Rolling Plains to simulate Rio Grande wild turkey (M. g. intermedia) flocks. We evaluated detectability of flocks and errors in counting flock size during fixed-wing (Cessna 172) aerial surveys using logistic and linear regression models. Flock detectability was primarily influenced by flock size and vegetative cover, and errors in counting flock size were primarily influenced by size of flocks. We conducted computer simulations to evaluate the accuracy and precision of fixed-wing aerial surveys and examined power to detect trends in population change. Our simulations suggested abundance estimates from fixed-wing aerial surveys may be underestimated by 10-15% (2.0-4.8% CV). Power analyses suggested that fixed-wing aerial surveys can provide sufficient power (>0.80) to detect a population change of 10-25% over a 4-5-year period. We concluded fixed-wing aerial surveys are feasible on ecoregion scales.     

Winter Survival of Wild Turkey Females in Central Minnesota

Abstract: There is interest in expanding eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) populations north of their current range. We hypothesized that winter survival and food availability are primary determinants in setting the northern extent of wild turkey distribution. To test our hypothesis, we translocated wild turkey females north of their present range into central Minnesota, USA, and compared survival in areas with supplemental food in the form of corn food plots versus areas with no supplemental food. During 2 winters with below-average snow, winter survival was higher for females with supplemental food. In one winter with above-average snow depths, survival was extremely low even with supplemental food. Supplemental food could augment survival during mild winters if wildlife managers arrange with farmers to, annually, retain standing corn near roosting habitat, but food plots may only partially offset effects of deep snow. Managers should critically evaluate northern habitats, long-term costs of sustained feeding, and potential outcomes of concentrating animals and introducing wild animals into new ecosystems. Winter survival may delimit the northern range of wild turkeys, though annual survival rates may also be important and need further research.     

Road-Based Surveys for Estimating Wild Turkey Density in the Texas Rolling Plains

Abstract: Line-transect-based distance sampling has been used to estimate density of several wild bird species including wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo). We used inflatable turkey decoys during autumn (Aug-Nov) and winter (Dec-Mar) 2003-2005 at study sites in the Texas Rolling Plains, USA, to simulate Rio Grande wild turkey (M. g. intermedia) flocks. We evaluated detectability of flocks using logistic regression models. Our modeling effort suggested that distance to a flock and flock size played important roles in flock detectability. We also conducted surveys from roads for wild turkeys during November 2004-January 2006. The detection probability of decoy flocks was similar to wild turkey flocks during winter (decoy flock, 69.3 ± 6.2% [x̄ ± 95% CI]; wild turkey flock, 62.2 ± 18.3%) and autumn (decoy flock, 44.1 ± 5.1%; wild turkey flock, 44.7 ± 25.6%), which suggested that using decoys was appropriate for evaluating detectability of wild turkey flocks from roads. We conducted computer simulations to evaluate the performance of line-transect-based distance sampling and examined the power to detect trends in population change. Simulations suggested that population density may be underestimated by 12% during inter and 29% during autumn. Such bias occurred because of incomplete detectability of flocks near roads. Winter surveys tended to have less bias, lower relative variability, and greater power than did autumn surveys. During winter surveys, power was sufficient (≥0.80) to detect a 10-25% change in population density in 8-12 years using ≥100 16-km transects or ≥80 32-km transects. We concluded line-transect-based distance sampling from roads is an efficient, effective, and inexpensive technique for monitoring Rio Grande wild turkey populations across large scales.     

Hunting and Nesting Phenology Influence Gobbling of Wild Turkeys

Wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo) use a polygynous mating system whereby males engage in multiple courtship behaviors, including vocalizations (gobbling) to attract females and compete with other males for breeding opportunities. Males must balance the risk of courtship behaviors with the reproductive potential of each courtship behavior. Male turkeys are primarily hunted during the reproductive period, so the associated risk of courtship behaviors is increased. Many state agencies attempt to set hunting season frameworks that maximize hunter satisfaction by allowing hunting when gobbling activity is greatest and most females are theoretically incubating nests, but the relationship between gobbling activity and nesting phenology is unclear. We used autonomous recording units and global positioning system transmitters to monitor gobbling activity by male turkeys and reproductive behaviors of female turkeys in the Piedmont region of Georgia, USA. We used 13,177 gobbles, behavioral data from 82 females during the reproductive season, and daily estimates of harvest of males by hunters to examine relationships between daily gobbling activity, cumulative removal of males, and reproductive behaviors (laying, incubating) of females during 2017–2018. We observed a weak negative relationship between daily gobbling activity and gobbling activity the following day. As the reproductive season progressed, gobbling activity decreased. As the proportion of females engaged in laying or incubating behaviors increased, expected daily gobbling activity increased. Conversely, we observed that hunting and removal of males had a negative effect on daily gobbling activity, and this effect was disproportionately greater than the positive effect of female reproductive behaviors. Our findings suggest that hunting and removal of males are important determinants of gobbling activity, and that corresponding reductions in gobbling activity may have mediating effects on the mating system of wild turkeys. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Effects of variable spring harvest regimes on annual survival and recovery rates of male wild turkeys in Southeast Louisiana

Spring harvest is a primary mortality factor for male eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris), but the relationship between spring harvest regimes and annual survival is not well understood. We banded 462 male wild turkeys from 1989 to 2007 in southeastern Louisiana to estimate annual survival and band recovery rates relative to spring harvest. We evaluated these parameters under a liberal harvest season (3-bird limit; 1989–1997) and a reduced conservative harvest season (2-bird limit; 2000–2007). Estimated recovery rates during the liberal season were 0.75 (SE = 0.05) for adults and 0.63 (SE = 0.04) for juveniles, and recovery rates during the conservative season were 0.61 (SE = 0.04) and 0.48 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively. Annual survival averaged 0.16 (SE = 0.05) and 0.43 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively, during the liberal season. Conversely, during the conservative season, annual survival averaged 0.31 (SE = 0.05) and 0.56 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively. Our findings suggest that bag limit reductions combined with a reduction in season length contributed to a 2-fold increase in annual survival for male wild turkeys. We contend that male wild turkeys were likely over harvested on our study area during the liberal harvest season, which contributed to exceptionally low annual survival rates. Managers should attempt to assess survival rates of male wild turkeys in harvested populations to properly manage spring harvest and develop appropriate harvest limits. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Spatial Scale and Shape of Prescribed Fires Influence Use by Wild Turkeys

In recent years, there have been increasing efforts to understand effects of prescribed fire on population dynamics of wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo; turkeys) in pine (Pinus spp.) forests. Although distribution of turkeys is not limited to pine forests, these forests provide nesting and brood-rearing habitat throughout the southeastern United States. Previous studies have investigated direct (e.g., nest loss to fire) and indirect (e.g., nest- and brood-site selection) effects of prescribed fire, but little is known about how turkeys are influenced by the spatial scale and shape of prescribed fire. We constructed an individual-based model (IBM) with landscapes of 2 burn unit shapes and 17 spatial scales. We used telemetry data obtained from global positioning system-marked female turkeys to replicate movement behaviors of turkeys within the model. We hypothesized that use of units burned during the current year (<1 yr) would decrease as scale of fires increased, and that shape of burn units would influence use by turkeys. Spatial scale most influenced turkey use; the greatest use was in burned stands of approximately 23 ha in size, whereas least use was associated with burned stands >1,269 ha. At a spatial scale of 23 ha, the daily percent use of rectangular burn units was 7% greater than square-shaped burn units. Likewise, daily percent use of rectangular burn units was 34% greater than square-shaped burn units at a spatial scale of 1,269 ha. When burn units were rectangular-shaped, daily percent use decreased by 48% as the spatial extent of the fires increased from 23 ha to 203 ha. Likewise, when burn units were square-shaped, turkey use decreased by 49% as spatial extent of fires increased from 23 ha to 203 ha. Our findings suggest the importance of managing forested landscapes with prescribed fires not exceeding approximately 200 ha if wild turkeys are a management concern. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Gobbling across landscapes: Eastern wild turkey distribution and occupancy–habitat associations

Extensive restoration and translocation efforts beginning in the mid‐20th century helped to reestablish eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) throughout their ancestral range. The adaptability of wild turkeys resulted in further population expansion in regions that were considered unfavorable during initial reintroductions across the northern United States. Identification and understanding of species distributions and contemporary habitat associations are important for guiding effective conservation and management strategies across different ecological landscapes. To investigate differences in wild turkey distribution across two contrasting regions, heavily forested northern Wisconsin, USA, and predominately agricultural southeast Wisconsin, we conducted 3050 gobbling call‐count surveys from March to May of 2014–2018 and used multiseason correlated‐replicate occupancy models to evaluate occupancy–habitat associations and distributions of wild turkeys in each study region. Detection probabilities varied widely and were influenced by sampling period, time of day, and wind speed. Spatial autocorrelation between successive stations was prevalent along survey routes but was stronger in our northern study area. In heavily forested northern Wisconsin, turkeys were more likely to occupy areas characterized by moderate availability of open land cover. Conversely, large agricultural fields decreased the likelihood of turkey occupancy in southeast Wisconsin, but occupancy probability increased as upland hardwood forest cover became more aggregated on the landscape. Turkeys in northern Wisconsin were more likely to occupy landscapes with less snow cover and a higher percentage of row crops planted in corn. However, we were unable to find supporting evidence in either study area that the abandonment of turkeys from survey routes was associated with snow depth or with the percentage of agricultural cover. Spatially, model‐predicted estimates of patch‐specific occupancy indicated turkey distribution was nonuniform across northern and southeast Wisconsin. Our findings demonstrated that the environmental constraints of turkey occupancy varied across the latitudinal gradient of the state with open cover, snow, and row crops being influential in the north, and agricultural areas and hardwood forest cover important in the southeast. These forces contribute to nonstationarity in wild turkey–environment relationships. Key habitat–occupancy associations identified in our results can be used to prioritize and strategically target management efforts and resources in areas that are more likely to harbor sustainable turkey populations.     

Variation in Brood Sex Ratios of Texas Rio Grande Wild Turkeys

Abstract: We evaluated brood sex ratio (BSR) variation in Rio Grande wild turkeys (RGWT; Meleagris gallopavo intermedia) in the Edwards Plateau and South Texas Plains of Texas, USA, during 2005-2006. Offspring sex was determined from DNA extracted from tissue biopsies of embryos from unhatched eggs or vascular tissue from eggshells of hatched and depredated eggs. Sex ratio across all eggs was 56.3% male (135/240; X²₁ = 3.75, P = 0.053). We found that mean population growth rate based on a population simulation with BSR at unity averaged 1.02 (range = 0.924-1.058), whereas it declined to 0.978 (range = 0.816-1.037) using BSR estimates from our study. Although our statistical analyses did not detect BSRs different from unity in BSR, our simulation modeling demonstrated that BSR variation caused biologically significant differences in mean population growth rates. Even though the biological mechanism controlling primary sex ratio remains unknown, our estimates of BSR should allow managers to more reliably predict population dynamics insuring viable RGWT populations across Texas.     

Genetic variation across the historical range of the wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo)

Genetic differences within and among naturally occurring populations of wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo) were characterized across five subspecies' historical ranges using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) analysis, microsatellite loci and mitochondrial control region sequencing. Current subspecific designations based on morphological traits were generally supported by these analyses, with the exception of the eastern (M. g. silvestris) and Florida (M. g. osceola) subspecies, which consistently formed a single unit. The Gould's subspecies was both the most genetically divergent and the least genetically diverse of the subspecies. These genetic patterns were consistent with current and historical patterns of habitat continuity. Merriam's populations showed a positive association between genetic and geographical distance, Rio Grande populations showed a weaker association and the eastern populations showed none, suggesting differing demographic forces at work in these subspecies. We recommend managing turkeys to maintain subspecies integrity, while recognizing the importance of maintaining regional population structure that may reflect important adaptive variation.     

Simulated performance of multi-year harvest regulation cycles for wild turkeys

Wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo) are a prolific species and valuable game animal throughout the United States. Stochastic simulations are commonly used to inform harvest management, and we used simulation to test performance of fall harvest management that included 1-, 3-, and 5-year cycles of population assessment and updating of harvest targets, respectively. To assess robustness of our conclusions, we replicated analyses across 18 combinations of model parameters that included population productivity (3 levels), sex-specific vulnerability to fall harvest (3 levels), and magnitude of spring harvest (2 levels). Performance of multi-year cycles, measured using abundance of males and annual harvest, depended on the context of model parameters that interacted to determine responses of populations to harvest. One- and 3-year cycles had similar performance so long as female harvests were less than or equal to male harvests. However, when harvest of females was greater than males, or when 5-year regulation cycles were implemented, there was greater risk due to nonlinear population responses to increased harvest. For example, nonlinearity resulted in thresholds where declines to abundance and harvest could occur with small increases to harvest rates, and thus the sustainability of fall harvests was less robust for multi-year cycles with time-lagged assessment and decision making. Moreover, the harvest rate resulting in threshold responses depended on model parameters and often occurred within the range of harvest rates recommended by earlier modeling studies (7–15%). Our results imply that multi-year cycles can be a viable approach to harvest management. Monitoring that provides information on sex-specific harvest is recommended, however, to determine if nonlinear population responses should be anticipated. Ideally, information on population-specific vital rates would also be available to allow managers to avoid harvest rates near thresholds that are expected to result in population declines. © The Wildlife Society, 2019