Factors affecting harvests of fishers and American martens in northern michigan

Harvest data (e.g., number of animals harvested, trapper effort) are an important source of information for state wildlife agencies to manage harvested furbearers. These data provide evidence to support adapting harvest regulations when necessary. Setting appropriate harvest regulations for fishers (Martes pennanti) and American martens (Martes americana) is critical, as these species often exist at low densities, are sensitive to timber-management practices and trapper-harvest, and experience some level of interspecific predation and competition in sympatric populations. We estimated effects of management (e.g., number of fishers or martens harvested per trapper per season [harvest limit], season length) and extrinsic (e.g., weather, pelt prices) factors on regulated harvests of fishers and martens in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan during 1996–2007. We used generalized linear mixed models in an information-theoretic approach (quasi-likelihood adjusted Akaike Information Criterion [QAIC]) to discern which factors most strongly influenced fisher and marten harvests. For harvest of fishers, the 3 QAIC-best models included harvest limit, season length, and number of trappers, suggesting that regulatory changes within the ranges tested may be implemented to influence harvest. The QAIC-best model (harvest limit) contained 26% of the weight of evidence, and using an independent subset of data, showed no difference between model predictions and harvest data. In contrast, harvest of martens was not strongly influenced by any factors we tested. Possible reasons for a lack of measurable effects while modeling harvest of martens include a low harvest limit (i.e., 1 marten) or incidental harvest of martens by fisher or bobcat (Lynx rufus) trappers. Knowledge of influences on harvest will lead to informed decision-making when managers are setting harvest regulations, particularly for low-density furbearers. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Raccoon Pelt Price and Trapper Harvest Relationships Are Temporally Inconsistent

Trapping data have a long and rich history of use in monitoring furbearer populations in North America but understanding the influences of variation in trapper harvest is important. Many factors besides abundance can cause variation in trapper harvest, including socioeconomics, weather, and motivation. The relationships between these extrinsic factors and trapper harvest may change temporally, which may obscure the causal understanding of variation in trapper harvest. We tested for changes in the relationships between pelt price and trapper numbers, and pelt price and harvest per trapper for raccoons (Procyon lotor) in Illinois, USA, from 1976–2018 while controlling for other socioeconomic (gasoline price, unemployment) and weather (temp, snow depth) factors. The annual raccoon harvest showed no clear trend, whereas the number of raccoon trappers declined markedly from approximately 1976–1990 in conjunction with pelt prices, after which the number of trappers remained relatively stable and were not significantly affected by pelt price. In contrast, harvest per trapper increased markedly during the 1990s and showed a significant negative relationship with pelt price pre-1990 but a positive relationship post-1990. We propose that declines in pelt prices resulted in a loss of less experienced or economically incentivized trappers, whereas contemporary trappers may continue trapping primarily for non-economic reasons. Our study highlights the potential for using non-linear relationships between trapper harvest data and socioeconomic covariates to help understand the influences of temporal variation in trapper harvest data. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Do trappers understand marten habitat?

Previous studies of the effects of fur trapping on marten populations have not considered habitat variation and how trappers use available habitat. We investigated the behavior of fur trappers with respect to roads, waterways, and the forest habitats on trap lines, using registered trap lines in northern Ontario as a study system. The objectives of this study were to 1) develop models for predicting trap location based on access and habitat features, 2) determine whether trappers target the same habitat preferred by American marten, and 3) investigate effects of spatial resolution on predictive models, using a geographic information system (GIS) for coarse resolution variables and direct forest mensuration for fine resolution variables. Distance to roads and water were by far the most influential factors in logistic models for predicting trap presence, accounting for 51.2–61.7% of the observed deviance. At a coarse spatial resolution, trappers selected sites that were close to vehicular access, and in older mixed wood forest stands. Similarly, at a coarse resolution, marten selected old stands, but dominated by coniferous trees. At a finer spatial resolution, trappers selected sites with high basal area of trees, pronounced proportion of black spruce, high canopy cover, and high density of coarse woody debris, consistent with previous studies on marten habitat selection at a fine resolution. Although coarse resolution models are easily applicable because of the wide availability of GIS land cover data, fine resolution models had greater predictive power when considering habitat variables. By quantifying trapper behaviors, these results suggest that the effectiveness of marten sanctuaries used in forest management depend not only on the age and species composition of forest stands left unlogged, but also on the degree to which they are accessible to trappers. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Annual and seasonal changes in diets of martens: evidence from stable isotope analysis

Theory predicts that generalist predators will switch to alternative prey when preferred foods are not readily available. Studies on the feeding ecology of the American marten (Martes americana) throughout North America suggest that this mustelid is a generalist predator feeding largely on voles (Microtus sp.; Clethrionomys sp.). We investigated seasonal and annual changes in diets of martens in response to the changing abundance of small rodents (Peromyscus keeni, and Microtus longicaudus) on Chichagof Island, Southeast Alaska, using stable isotope analysis. We hypothesized that martens would feed primarily on small rodents during years with high abundance of these prey species, whereas during years of low abundance of prey, martens would switch to feed primarily on the seasonally available carcasses of salmon. We also hypothesized that home-range location on the landscape (i.e., access to salmon streams) would determine the type of food consumed by martens, and martens feeding on preferred prey would exhibit better body condition than those feeding on other foods. We live-captured 75 martens repeatedly, from mid-February to mid-December 1992–1994. We also obtained marten carcasses from trappers during late autumn 1991 and 1992, from which we randomly sub-sampled 165 individuals. Using stable isotope ratios and a multiple-source mixing model, we inferred that salmon carcasses composed a large portion of the diet of martens in autumn during years of low abundance of rodents (1991 and 1992). When small rodents were available in high numbers (1993 and 1994), they composed the bulk of the diet of martens in autumn, despite salmon carcasses being equally available in all years. Selection for small rodents occurred only in seasons in which abundance of small rodents was low. Logistic regression revealed that individuals with access to salmon streams were more likely to incorporate salmon carcasses in their diet during years of low abundance of small rodents. Using stable isotope analysis on repeated samples from the same individuals, we explored some of the factors underlying feeding habits of individuals under variable ecological conditions. We were unable to demonstrate that body weights of live-captured male and female martens differed significantly between individuals feeding on marine-derived or terrestrial diets. Therefore, martens, as true generalist predators, switched to alternative prey when their principal food was not readily available on a seasonal or annual basis. Although salmon carcasses were not a preferred food for martens, they provided a suitable alternative to maintain body condition during years when small rodents were not readily available. Received: 1 May 1996 / Accepted: 24 February 1997     

Effects of Off-Highway Vehicle Use on the American Marten

Abstract Motorized recreation in North American wildlands is increasing, and technological developments in the power and range of vehicles has increased access to high-elevation habitats. The American marten (Martes americana) is vulnerable to this disturbance because martens, like other residents of high-elevation forests, are associated with remote wilderness conditions where the presence of motorized vehicles is a recent phenomenon. We evaluated the effects of vehicles at 2 study sites in California, USA, by comparing marten occupancy rates and probabilities of detection in areas where recreational vehicle use is legal and encouraged (use areas) with wilderness areas where vehicles are prohibited (non-use areas). We sampled vehicle occurrence in nearby use and non-use areas using sound level meters and determined marten occurrence using track and camera stations. We also included 2 secondary measures of potential effects of vehicles on martens: sex ratio and circadian pattern of activity. Martens were ubiquitous in use and non-use areas in both study sites, and there was no effect of vehicle use on marten occupancy or probability of detection. We predicted that females might be less common and martens more nocturnal in use than in non-use areas, but neither occurred. Martens were exposed to low levels of disturbance in our study sites. We estimated that a marten might be exposed to 0.5 vehicle passes/hour and that this exposure had the greatest effect on <20% of a typical home range area. Furthermore, vehicle use usually occurred when martens were inactive. We did not measure behavioral, physiological, or demographic responses, so it is possible that vehicles may have effects, alone or in concert with other threats (e.g., timber harvest), that we did not quantify. We encourage additional studies to determine whether other montane species that are year-round residents demonstrate the same response to motorized vehicles.     

A PCR-RFLP-based method to distinguish sable (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Martes zibellina</Emphasis>) and pine marten (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Martes martes</Emphasis>)

Species identification is an important issue in conservation and a particular focus for wildlife forensics. Molecular biological methods retain a unique power to differentiate between difficult samples that lack other identifiable characteristics. The pine marten (Martes martes) and sable (Martes zibellina) are closely related species with very similar pelage characteristics and are often difficult to distinguish from each other. The sable, however, in contrast to the pine marten, remains an endangered and protected animal in China with both hunting and fur trade strictly prohibited for this species. Here, we present a polymerase chain reaction-based restriction fragment length polymorphism method for distinguishing the two species. We sequenced a 638-bp fragment of cytochrome b gene in 39 sables, 68 pine martens, and 10 stone martens and identified all variable nucleotides. A new primer pair was subsequently designed to amplify a 316-bp fragment containing restriction sites of enzyme BseG I and BamH I that are different among martens. When the fragment was cut using BseG I, the resulting restriction pattern was identical in the sable and pine marten, but differed from all other martens. When cut using BamH I, the fragment generated two diagnostic fragments in the sable which could distinguish them from pine martens. This method was valid for all haplotypes of sable and pine marten thus far identified and has high potentially applicability for the identification of the two species.     

The influence of forest fragmentation and landscape pattern on American martens

1. We investigated the effects of forest fragmentation on American martens ( Martes americana Rhoads) by evaluating differences in marten capture rates (excluding recaptures) in 18 study sites with different levels of fragmentation resulting from timber harvest clearcuts and natural openings. We focused on low levels of fragmentation, where forest connectivity was maintained and non-forest cover ranged from 2% to 42%.
2. Martens appeared to respond negatively to low levels of habitat fragmentation, based on the significant decrease in capture rates within the series of increasingly fragmented landscapes. Martens were nearly absent from landscapes having > 25% non-forest cover, even though forest connectivity was still present.
3. Marten capture rates were negatively correlated with increasing proximity of open areas and increasing extent of high-contrast edges. Forested landscapes appeared unsuitable for martens when the average nearest-neighbour distance between open (non-forested) patches was <100 m. In these landscapes, the proximity of open areas created strips of forest edge and eliminated nearly all forest interior.
4. Small mammal densities were significantly higher in clearcuts than in forests, but marten captures were not correlated with prey abundance or biomass associated with clearcuts.
5. Conservation efforts for the marten must consider not only the structural aspects of mature forests, but the landscape pattern in which the forest occurs. We recommend that the combination of timber harvests and natural openings comprise <25% of landscapes ≥9 km² in size.
6. The spatial pattern of open areas is important as well, because small, dispersed openings result in less forest interior habitat than one large opening at the same percentage of fragmentation. Progressive cutting from a single patch would retain the largest amount of interior forest habitat.     

Temporal Changes in Population Dynamics of American Martens

ABSTRACT Population parameters of American martens (Martes Americana) are often monitored to guide management actions. In order to better understand changing marten population demographics, we estimated marten abundance and several population parameters on a portion of northeast Chichagof Island (NCI), Southeast Alaska, USA, using capture-mark–recapture methods in combination with radiotelemetry and compared these data with demographic estimates derived from the trapper catch from the larger NCI area. We found that capture probability remained relatively high across trapping sessions by using a standard live-trapping protocol, and we found no evidence of capture probability being consistently affected by population or environmental factors. Estimated marten numbers varied greatly over the period, ranging from a low of 14.1 martens (0.17/km²) during winter 1997–1998 to a high of 45.6 martens (0.55/km²) during winter 1995–1996. The annual trend was for decreasing numbers from winter 1990–1991 to winter 1992–1993, then increasing numbers through winter 1995–1996. By winter 1996–1997, numbers had dropped substantially and remained low through 1997–1998. All population parameters varied temporally, including annual survival (0.34–1.00), sex ratio (1.0–3.5), mean age (0.5–2.9), body condition (-0.08–1.35), and fecundity (0.44–2.70). Yearly trapper catches on NCI varied greatly from 19 to 354 martens (0.02 martens/km² to 0.31 martens/km²) because of changing trapper effort and marten abundance. We found mean ages of carcasses a good predictor of population mean age, but sex ratios were highly variable. Marten numbers and fecundity were strongly correlated with rodent abundance, especially long-tailed voles (Microtus longicaudus). By monitoring demographic parameters of the population or trapper-caught carcasses, managers can gain insight into temporal population dynamics. Also, total captures of individuals may provide a useful estimate of marten numbers without the expense of radiocollaring and tracking individuals because population estimates were highly correlated with number of individuals captured during a standard survey. Because of their high vulnerability to trapping, close monitoring of marten populations is important for the conservation and sustained-yield management of the species. A tracking strategy developed with input data on preseason abundance and age structure may be the best management approach, especially for small populations with limited immigration.     

Identifying and Controlling for Variation in Canid Harvest Data

An accurate understanding of harvest trends is required for effective wildlife management. Trapper harvest data represent valuable long-term data for evaluating patterns and trends for wildlife species at broad spatiotemporal scales. Inferring accurate trends from harvest data, however, first requires identifying and controlling for confounding factors that vary independent of abundance. We investigated trends in 43 years of trapper harvest data (1976–2018) from Illinois, USA, for red fox (Vulpes vulpes), gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), and coyote (Canis latrans) while controlling for factors that may affect trapper effort, including number of effective (i.e., successful) trappers, pelt price, gasoline price, winter unemployment, and winter weather conditions. Annual trapper harvest for red and gray foxes declined and was affected by gasoline price and winter unemployment, whereas annual trapper harvest for coyotes increased and was not strongly affected by other covariates. After adjusting for pelt price, harvest of red foxes was relatively stable, but harvest of gray foxes declined and harvest of coyotes increased. Effects of covariates on harvest per successful trapper varied by species; nevertheless, we detected an increasing trend for coyotes and decreasing trends for gray foxes and red foxes. Concordance across indices for gray foxes and coyotes was consistent with hypothesized declines for gray foxes and increases for coyotes in the midwestern United States. Trends for red foxes varied depending on how we accounted for potential confounding factors and it is unclear if these trends suggest population declines or distribution shifts to urban areas with reduced trapping susceptibility. Our results highlight the importance of understanding sources of variation in harvest data and that their effects can vary across species. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Habitat Selection by American Martens in Coastal California

ABSTRACT We investigated habitat selection using single- and mixed-scale modeling at 2 spatial scales, stand and home range, by the only known population of American martens (Martes americana) remaining in the historical range of the Humboldt subspecies (M. a. humboldtensis) in California, USA. During 2000 and 2001, we sampled a 12 times 14 grid with 2-km spacing, using 2 sooted track plates at each grid point. We detected martens at 26 of the 159 grid points. We used resource selection probability functions and an information-theoretic method to model habitat at detection locations. At the stand scale, martens selected conifer-dominated stands with dense, spatially extensive shrub cover (x̄ = 74% cover, SE = 4) in the oldest developmental stage. At the home-range scale, martens selected the largest available patches (x̄ = 181 ha, SE = 14) of old-growth, old-growth and late-mature, or serpentine habitat. Mixed-scale models revealed that habitat characteristics from both scales best explained marten occurrence compared to one scale alone. Dense, spatially extensive shrub cover is a key habitat element for martens in coastal forests. Dense shrubs provide refuge from predators, cover for prey, and may also deter larger-bodied competitors. Managers can increase the likelihood of marten population persistence and encourage expansion in coastal forests by maintaining and restoring late-mature and old-growth, conifer-dominated forests with dense shrub cover in large, contiguous patches.     

Marten and fisher responses to fluctuations in prey populations and mast crops in the northern hardwood forest

Many forest tree species produce seed (mast) crops that are consumed by a variety of wildlife species and these pulsed resources may mediate interactions among predator and prey populations. In the northern hardwood forests of New York, we investigated interactions among mast production, prey abundance, and harvests of American martens (Martes americana) and fishers (Martes pennanti) during 1988–2009. Mast production for beech (Fagus grandifolia), sugar maple (Acer saccharum), and mountain ash (Sorbus americana) was synchronous and an alternate-year pattern in production was evident for most of the time series. We documented considerable temporal variation in summer small mammal relative abundance and our numerical response models received substantial support for 5 of the 8 species, indicating lagged responses to autumn mast crops. Trap response of martens to the autumn production of beech mast and mountain ash berries was immediate and numerical responses to the relative abundance of small mammal prey occurred during the preceding summer. The age structure of the marten harvest differed based on the dominant alternate-year pattern of summer prey relative abundance and autumn mast production (χ²₄ = 33.06, P < 0.001). The proportion of juvenile marten in the autumn harvest was 52% and 34% following summers when small mammal relative abundance was high and low, respectively and these differences resulted in a persistent cohort effect that was apparent until age 3.5. Trap response of fishers to the autumn production of beech mast was immediate and numerical responses to the relative abundance of Sciurid prey occurred during the preceding summer. Marten and fisher harvests fluctuated similarly among New York, Maine, and New Brunswick, which may indicate regional synchronization of mast crops and responses of martens and fishers to similar prey dynamics. A better understanding of how food availability influences demographic responses and trapping vulnerability of martens and fishers would aid our ability to manage harvests of these species on a sustained yield basis. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Decline in American marten occupancy rates at Sagehen Experimental Forest,California

We compared the distribution and frequency of American marten (Martes americana) detections during historic surveys and a recent survey on the Sagehen Experimental Forest (SEF) in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. This area has been the location of 9 previous marten surveys during 1980–1993, each involving a systematic detection/non-detection survey on the same grid. These data are a time series of information on the occupancy of martens that can be related to habitat change in the study area. Our objectives were to 1) resurvey martens in SEF using methodology similar to previous studies to assess current marten occupancy; 2) evaluate changes in marten occupancy during the period 1980–2008; and 3) examine associations between marten occurence and changes in habitat and landscape metrics. Current marten occupancy was estimated using surveys conducted in summer 2007, winter 2007–2008, and summer 2008. From 1978 to 2007 there was a decrease in predicted habitat patch size, core area, and total amount of marten habitat in the study area, as well as an increase in distance between patches. Marten detections in 2007–2008 were approximately 60% lower than in surveys in the 1980s. We detected no martens in the summers of 2007 and 2008, and 10 detections in winter 2007–2008 were limited to higher elevations in the southwestern portion of SEF. No martens were detected in the lower elevations where most of the recent forest management activity occurred. We suggest that the marten population at SEF has been negatively affected by the loss and fragmentation of habitat. We recommend that future management of forests in the Sagehen basin focus on restoring and connecting residual marten habitat to improve habitat quality for martens. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Stone martens (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Martes foina</Emphasis>) and cars: investigation of a common human–wildlife conflict

Stone martens (Martes foina) commonly climb into car engine compartments, where they may tear up heat and noise insulation mats or bite into rubber or plastic components. This brings martens into conflict with humans. Although various hypotheses have been suggested as to why martens damage cars once inside them, it is not known what makes martens associate with cars in the first place. We radio-tracked 13 urban stone martens over a 2-year period in Luxembourg to determine the context in which martens visit parked cars at night. Martens associated with cars most frequently in spring and early summer, when their activity on roads was highest and when they systematically patrolled and scent-marked cars. Most visits to cars were of short duration. We suggest, therefore, that the main factor promoting marten–car contact is territorial behaviour, rather than either the thermal benefits to be gained from proximity to recently used engines or the need for a safe environment for resting, hiding or food consumption.     

Accuracy in molecular sexing of martens (Martes americana and Martes caurina) varies among sample types

We evaluated the accuracy of sex identification using the SRY marker for American marten (Martes americana) and Pacific marten (Martes caurina) using samples collected from commercial trappers and those obtained via noninvasive sampling. We determined that sex identification from Lut-SRY primers is accurate at >90% for muscle and hair samples collected noninvasively. We found much lower accuracy when using hair samples plucked from trapper-killed carcasses, errors presumably incurred from contamination from the DNA of trappers, who were entirely male. We also found that the sequence generated from Lut-SRY primers, originally developed for Eurasian otters (Lutra lutra), differed slightly for martens, and recommend that new primers be developed from the sequences we provide. The SRY marker can be reliably used for sex identification in both species of marten, provided that samples have low probabilities of contamination. Researchers should avoid samples collected from external locations on trapper-killed carcasses for DNA-based analyses.     

Snow tracking reveals different foraging patterns of red foxes and pine martens

Red fox (Vulpes vulpes) shares similar prey preferences and co-occurs with several other carnivores, and is together with pine marten (Martes martes), the most common mesocarnivore in the northern boreal forest. Voles are important prey for both species, but it is unclear to what extent they compete for the same food resources in winter. Here, we use 2139 km and 533 km of meticulous snow tracking of red foxes and pine martens to evaluate their food niches. We measured hunting and digging behaviour, whether successful or not, and the effect of snow depth and temperature. Pine martens were restricted to forested habitats, whereas red foxes used a wide range of habitats. Red foxes were found to dig more often than pine martens, 0.67 vs. 0.39 digging events per kilometre. Hunting was less common and similar in both species, about 0.1 hunting event per kilometre. Pine martens were more efficient in hunting and finding food remains compared to red foxes. Increasing snow depth reduced hunting success and also reduced dig success of red foxes. Food niche overlap was small. Red foxes used mostly voles and carrion remains of ungulates, whereas pine martens used cached eggs and small birds. We suggest that caching eggs is an important strategy for pine martens to survive winter in northern latitudes. Snow depth was important for capturing voles, and thick snow cover appeared to mask the effect of vole peaks. Intensified land use, as clear-cutting and leaving slaughter remains from harvest, will benefit red foxes on the expense of pine martens. The ongoing climate change with warmer winters and less snow will likely further benefit the red fox.     

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Wolf Harvest on Registered Traplines in Alberta,Canada

Abstract: Gray wolf (Canis lupus) populations are recovering in many parts of the world and managers from various jurisdictions will be faced with difficult decisions as wolf populations continue to increase. Wolf management in Alberta, Canada, is achieved mostly through trapping on a registered trapline system. Wolf harvest increased over the last 22 years relative to population increases. Most wolf harvests occurred in the Rocky Mountains and surrounding foothills area and this pattern was consistent over time. On average, trappers only harvested an estimated 9.8% of the provincial population annually despite the lack of bag limits or quotas. Harvests are spatially autocorrelated with peak autocorrelation coinciding with average home-range size for wolves in Alberta. When wolf control actions are deemed necessary, trappers are unlikely to remove a sufficient number of wolves over a large enough area to limit subpopulations under the registered trapline system.     

American marten and fisher do not segregate in space and time during winter in a mixed‐forest system

Understanding the mechanisms of coexistence between ecologically similar species is an important issue in ecology. Carnivore coexistence may be facilitated by spatial segregation, temporal avoidance, and differential habitat selection. American martens Martes americana and fishers Pekania pennanti are medium‐sized mustelids that occur sympatrically across portions of North America, yet mechanisms of coexistence between the two species are not fully understood. We assessed spatial and temporal partitioning in martens and fishers in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA, using camera trap data collected during winter 2013–2015. To investigate spatial segregation, we used a dynamic occupancy model to estimate species’ occupancy probabilities and probabilities of persistence and colonization as a function of covariates and yearly occupancy probability for the other species. Temporal segregation was assessed by estimating diel activity overlap between species. We found weak evidence of spatial or temporal niche partitioning of martens and fishers. There was high overlap in forest cover selection, and both marten and fisher occupancy were positively correlated with deciduous forests (excluding aspen [Populus tremuloides]). There was strong temporal overlap (; CI = 0.79–0.82) with both species exhibiting largely crepuscular activity patterns. Co‐occurrence of martens and fishers appears to be facilitated by mechanisms not investigated in this study, such as partitioning of snow features or diet. Our results add additional insights into resource partitioning of mesocarnivores, but further research is required to enhance our understanding of mechanisms that facilitate marten and fisher coexistence.     

Fate of translocated wild-caught and captive-reared stone martens (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Martes foina</Emphasis>)

We radio-tracked one urban wild-caught and four orphaned captive-reared stone martens (Martes foina) after translocation to novel habitats. The wild-caught marten rapidly returned to urban habitat but died 7 days after release. The captive-reared martens survived >130 days after release. An initial period of extensive movements was followed by decreased activity. Captive-reared martens apparently adapted well to living in the wild. However, we recommend that exclusion of martens from den sites should be used to avoid having to resort to the capture and translocation of problem martens.     

Gypsy moth response to landscape structure differs from neutral model predictions: implications for invasion monitoring

Simulations of dispersal across computer-generated neutral landscapes have generated testable predictions about the relationship between dispersal success and landscape structure. Models predict a threshold response in dispersal success with increasing habitat fragmentation. A threshold is defined as an abrupt, disproportionate decline in dispersal success at a certain proportion of habitat in the landscape. To identify potential empirical threshold responses in invasion success to landscape structure, we quantified the relationship between progression of the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) invasion wavefront across Michigan (1985–1996) and the structure of the Michigan landscape using two indices of invasion success and six landscape metrics. We also examined the effect of scale of analysis and choice of land cover characterization on our results by repeating our analysis at three scales using two different land cover maps. Contrary to simulation model predictions, thresholds in invasion success did not correspond closely with thresholds in landscape structure metrics. Increased variation in invasion success indices at smaller scales of analysis also suggested that invasion success should be studied at larger spatial extents (≥75 km²) than would be appropriate for characterizing individual dispersal events. The predictions of individual dispersal models across neutral landscapes may have limited applications for the monitoring and management of vagile species with excellent dispersal capabilities such as the gypsy moth.