Four errors and a fallacy: pitfalls for the unwary in comparative brain analyses

Comparative analyses are the backbone of evolutionary analysis. However, their record in producing a consensus has not always been good. This is especially true of attempts to understand the factors responsible for the evolution of large brains, which have been embroiled in an increasingly polarised debate over the past three decades. We argue that most of these disputes arise from a number of conceptual errors and associated logical fallacies that are the result of a failure to adopt a biological systems-based approach to hypothesis-testing. We identify four principal classes of error: a failure to heed Tinbergen's Four Questions when testing biological hypotheses, misapplying Dobzhansky's Dictum when testing hypotheses of evolutionary adaptation, poorly chosen behavioural proxies for underlying hypotheses, and the use of inappropriate statistical methods. In the interests of progress, we urge a more careful and considered approach to comparative analyses, and the adoption of a broader, rather than a narrower, taxonomic perspective.     

Alternative statistical approaches to the use of data as evidence for hypotheses in human behavioral ecology

In their ambitious Evolutionary Anthropology paper, Winterhalder and Smith 1 review the history, theory, and methods of human behavioral ecology (HBE). In establishing how HBE differs from traditional approaches within sociocultural anthropology, they and others laud its hypothetical‐deductive research method. 1 - 3 Our aim is to critically examine how human behavioral ecologists conduct their research, specifically how they analyze and interpret data as evidence for scientific hypotheses. Through computer simulations and a review of empirical studies of human sex ratios, we consider some limitations of the status quo and present alternatives that could strengthen the field. In particular, we suggest that because human behavioral ecologists often consider multiple hypotheses, they should use statistical approaches that can quantify the evidence in empirical data for competing hypotheses. Although we focus on HBE, the principles of this paper apply broadly within biological anthropology.     

Statistical phylogeography: methods of evaluating and minimizing inference errors

Nested clade phylogeographical analysis (NCPA) has become a common tool in intraspecific phylogeography. To evaluate the validity of its inferences, NCPA was applied to actual data sets with 150 strong a priori expectations, the majority of which had not been analysed previously by NCPA. NCPA did well overall, but it sometimes failed to detect an expected event and less commonly resulted in a false positive. An examination of these errors suggested some alterations in the NCPA inference key, and these modifications reduce the incidence of false positives at the cost of a slight reduction in power. Moreover, NCPA does equally well in inferring events regardless of the presence or absence of other, unrelated events. A reanalysis of some recent computer simulations that are seemingly discordant with these results revealed that NCPA performed appropriately in these simulated samples and was not prone to a high rate of false positives under sampling assumptions that typify real data sets. NCPA makes a posteriori use of an explicit inference key for biological interpretation after statistical hypothesis testing. Alternatives to NCPA that claim that biological inference emerges directly from statistical testing are shown in fact to use an a priori inference key, albeit implicitly. It is argued that the a priori and a posteriori approaches to intraspecific phylogeography are complementary, not contradictory. Finally, cross-validation using multiple DNA regions is shown to be a powerful method of minimizing inference errors. A likelihood ratio hypothesis testing framework has been developed that allows testing of phylogeographical hypotheses, extends NCPA to testing specific hypotheses not within the formal inference key (such as the out-of-Africa replacement hypothesis of recent human evolution) and integrates intra- and interspecific phylogeographical inference.     

Nested identities: national and European identity in Spain

This article focuses on Spain to explain individual variation in the strength of identification with Europe. It relies mainly on statistical analysis of a nationally representative survey conducted in March 2000, but also on historical and newspaper sources. The statistical results support Inglehart's hypotheses about the contribution of high degrees of cognitive mobilization and education to the development of a European identity, but contradict his Postmaterialism thesis. Also, they support Turner's and Tajfel's hypotheses about the role of positive group images in fostering identification with groups. Finally, they show that in Spain regional and national identities are compatible with a European identity. This result is consistent with Calhoun's and Brewer's view of nested group identities who do not see a priori incompatibility between nested identities. Furthermore, it supports the authors' claim that nested identities are potentially compatible, as in Spain, when they are not portrayed and seen as impinging on each other.     

How scientists perceive the evolutionary origin of human traits: Results of a survey study

Various hypotheses have been proposed for why the traits distinguishing humans from other primates originally evolved, and any given trait may have been explained both as an adaptation to different environments and as a result of demands from social organization or sexual selection. To find out how popular the different explanations are among scientists, we carried out an online survey among authors of recent scientific papers in journals covering relevant fields of science (paleoanthropology, paleontology, ecology, evolution, human biology). Some of the hypotheses were clearly more popular among the 1,266 respondents than others, but none was universally accepted or rejected. Even the most popular of the hypotheses were assessed “very likely” by <50% of the respondents, but many traits had 1–3 hypotheses that were found at least moderately likely by >70% of the respondents. An ordination of the hypotheses identified two strong gradients. Along one gradient, the hypotheses were sorted by their popularity, measured by the average credibility score given by the respondents. The second gradient separated all hypotheses postulating adaptation to swimming or diving into their own group. The average credibility scores given for different subgroups of the hypotheses were not related to respondent's age or number of publications authored. However, (paleo)anthropologists were more critical of all hypotheses, and much more critical of the water‐related ones, than were respondents representing other fields of expertise. Although most respondents did not find the water‐related hypotheses likely, only a small minority found them unscientific. The most popular hypotheses were based on inherent drivers; that is, they assumed the evolution of a trait to have been triggered by the prior emergence of another human‐specific behavioral or morphological trait, but opinions differed as to which of the traits came first.     

Properties of Statistical Tests of Neutrality for DNA Polymorphism Data

A class of statistical tests based on molecular polymorphism data is studied to determine size and power properties. The class includes TAJIMA''s D statistic as well as the D* and F* tests proposed by FU and LI. A new method of constructing critical values for these tests is described. Simulations indicate that TAJIMA''s test is generally most powerful against the alternative hypotheses of selective sweep, population bottleneck, and population subdivision, among tests within this class. However, even TAJIMA''s test can detect a selective sweep or bottleneck only if it has occurred within a specific interval of time in the recent past or population subdivision only when it has persisted for a very long time. For greatest power against the particular alternatives studied here, it is better to sequence more alleles than more sites.     

Data-Mining Discovery of Pattern and Process in Ecological Systems

ABSTRACT Most ecologists use statistical methods as their main analytical tools when analyzing data to identify relationships between a response and a set of predictors; thus, they treat all analyses as hypothesis tests or exercises in parameter estimation. However, little or no prior knowledge about a system can lead to creation of a statistical model or models that do not accurately describe major sources of variation in the response variable. We suggest that under such circumstances data mining is more appropriate for analysis. In this paper we 1) present the distinctions between data-mining (usually exploratory) analyses and parametric statistical (confirmatory) analyses, 2) illustrate 3 strengths of data-mining tools for generating hypotheses from data, and 3) suggest useful ways in which data mining and statistical analyses can be integrated into a thorough analysis of data to facilitate rapid creation of accurate models and to guide further research.     

Weak links: 'Rapoport's rule' and large-scale species richness patterns

Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain regional species richness patterns. Among these, ‘Rapoport's rule’ has sparked considerable controversy by stating that the latitudinal gradient in species richness can be explained indirectly as a function of narrower geographic ranges for species at low latitudes. Annual climatic variability, or deviation from mean climatic conditions, has been hypothesized to moderate this phenomenon. Furthermore, taxa that avoid much of this seasonality, such as temperate zone insects that enter diapause or species that migrate, were predicted to show reduced latitudinal gradients in richness. I test the suggested link between ‘Rapoport's rule’ and species richness for two higher level insect taxa as well as for the class Mammalia. Although these taxa exhibit the well-known latitudinal gradient in species richness, simple annual climatic variability and deviation from mean annual climatic conditions provide very poor predictions of species richness in each of them. Potential evapotranspiration, a measurement of ambient climatic energy, explains most of the observed variance in regional species richness patterns for all three taxa, consistent with the species richness-energy hypothesis. I find no support for an indirect link between ‘Rapoport's rule’ and terrestrial species richness patterns in North America.     

Grandmothers' longevity negatively affects daughters' fertility

The evolution of postmenopausal longevity in human females has been the subject of debate. Specifically, there is disagreement about whether the evolution of the trait should be understood as an adaptive or a neutral process, and if the former, what the selective mechanism is. There are two main adaptive proposals to explain the evolution of postreproductive longevity: the grandmother and the mother hypotheses. The grandmother hypothesis proposes that postreproductive longevity evolved because it is selectively advantageous for females to stop reproducing and to help raise their grandchildren. The mother hypothesis states that postmenopausal longevity evolved because it is advantageous for women to cease reproduction and concentrate their resources and energy in raising the children already produced. In this article, we test the mother and the grandmother hypotheses with a historical data set from which we bootstrapped random samples of women from different families who lived from the 1500s to the 1900s in the central valley of Costa Rica. We also compute the heritability of longevity, which allows us to determine if genes involved in longevity are nearly fixed in this population. Here we show that although longevity positively affects a woman's fertility, it negatively affects her daughter's fertility; for this reason, the heritability of longevity is unexpectedly high. Our data provide strong grounds for questioning the universality of the grandmother hypothesis and for supporting the mother hypothesis as a likely explanation for the evolution of human postreproductive longevity.     

On Presenting Results of Statistical Analyses in Scientific Journals

In many biological and other scientific journals, a reader's understanding of a paper to the argument of which statistical methods and analyses are important is often impeded by confusions of terminology and ambiguities of symbols. This is not solely because statistics is a difficult subject for biologists! If an editor were to formulate and make known a code of statistical symbols, abbreviations, and technical terms that in his journal will be regarded as part of the normal language of science, an author could use these without need for explanation each time. Every author would remain free to depart from the code, provided that he defined clearly his own usages. Such a policy, supported by the journal's referees, would do much to remove the frequent necessity for a reader to guess an author's meaning. Similarly considerations apply to the use of statistical software packages, where there is an evident need for an author to declare what software (if any) he has used, in much the same way as, by established custom, he will carefully specify his experimental materials and methods where these in any respect differ from the obvious. The present paper is written to stimulate constructive debate, and in no way to dogmatize on the merits or faults of particular statistical methods. Its underlying spirit is that the author of a scientific communication has a duty to describe the making of his observations, the conduct of his computations, and the performance of his computations with a clarity that would permit their repetition by another scientist who has access to the appropriate facilities and resources.     

Misprescription and misuse of one‐tailed tests

One‐tailed statistical tests are often used in ecology, animal behaviour and in most other fields in the biological and social sciences. Here we review the frequency of their use in the 1989 and 2005 volumes of two journals (Animal Behaviour and Oecologia), their advantages and disadvantages, the extensive erroneous advice on them in both older and modern statistics texts and their utility in certain narrow areas of applied research. Of those articles with data sets susceptible to one‐tailed tests, at least 24% in Animal Behaviour and at least 13% in Oecologia used one‐tailed tests at least once. They were used 35% more frequently with nonparametric methods than with parametric ones and about twice as often in 1989 as in 2005. Debate in the psychological literature of the 1950s established the logical criterion that one‐tailed tests should be restricted to situations where there is interest only in results in one direction. ‘Interest’ should be defined; however, in terms of collective or societal interest and not by the individual investigator. By this ‘collective interest’ criterion, all uses of one‐tailed tests in the journals surveyed seem invalid. In his book Nonparametric Statistics, S. Siegel unrelentingly suggested the use of one‐tailed tests whenever the investigator predicts the direction of a result. That work has been a major proximate source of confusion on this issue, but so are most recent statistics textbooks. The utility of one‐tailed tests in research aimed at obtaining regulatory approval of new drugs and new pesticides is briefly described, to exemplify the narrow range of research situations where such tests can be appropriate. These situations are characterized by null hypotheses stating that the difference or effect size does not exceed, or is at least as great as, some ‘amount of practical interest’. One‐tailed tests rarely should be used for basic or applied research in ecology, animal behaviour or any other science.     

盖娅假说:在争议中发展

自从1972年Lovelock提出盖娅假说已经过去了40年,但围绕它的争议却从未停止过。盖娅假说在反对者的批评中与支持者的证明中不断发展。当前,最极端形式的盖娅假说基本上已被摒弃,尤其是那种明显带有目的论的说法。弱盖娅提出的"有机体可以影响他们的环境,有机体与环境的反馈耦合可以塑造两者的进化"这两个观点也已经是普遍接受的事实。除此之外,盖娅假说提出的其他3个命题却饱受争议。(1)内在平衡的盖娅:生物调节反馈有助于环境的内在平衡。反对者认为,生物反馈稳定全球环境的说法,与冰芯记录和大量的气候反馈研究结果相矛盾的。支持者认为,地球生物-环境系统的内在平衡可以产生于正负反馈的混合。盖娅假说关心的是地球几十亿年的历史,盖娅假说在较短时间尺度内可证伪,并不意味着其在较长时间尺度内也可证伪。(2)最优的盖娅:生物调节环境,使环境更加适合生物的生存。关于有机体的繁荣主要是由于他们对环境的改变,还是由于他们对环境的适应,目前尚未有结论。但盖娅的支持者认为,当生物-环境系统受到干扰或崩溃时,主导过程将显现。拥有较强环境反馈的系统,将易于快速过渡到新的状态,而由适应主导的过程将改变得较为平缓。反对者同意生物通过生物调节作用影响环境条件以使自身受益,但是生物首先要适应环境条件通过自然选择才能得以繁荣发展的。地球形成这样的环境条件,很可能纯粹是一种运气。(3)自然选择的盖娅:生物调节反馈产生于达尔文式的自然选择。反对者认为,"自然选择支持促进生命效应"的说法并非普遍有效,只有当遗传特征赋予携带者繁殖优势时,自然选择才会支持它。自然选择是机制,而非原则。支持者认为自然选择并不是盖娅系统环境调节的必要条件;基于副产品的自然选择,可以解决许多进化论学者提出的物种合作中的欺骗问题;自然选择并不总是支持促进生命的效应,但在当遗传特征使携带者相对非携带者受益时,自然选择可以使特征携带者产生进化优势。虽然争议依然存在并将持续下去,但作为假说生产者,盖娅假说已经证明了它的价值。但是在人类活动对生物圈影响不断增强的背景下,盖娅假说必须与人类活动相结合,否则必然走向衰落,并被其他理论或假说所替代。在此基础上,未来盖娅假说的研究者们需要继续努力探索可以应用于生物圈的一般性原则,并坚持系统性的思考方法。在具体的方法方面,可以利用系统度量指标;建立新的模型,尤其是建立关于生物地球化学循环过程的机理模型;搞清楚不同尺度过程的成本与收益。     

Stochastic models for X chromosome inactivation

Summary A multivariate Gaussian model for mammalian development is presented with the associated biological and mathematical assumptions. Many biological investigations use the female mammal X chromosome to test hypotheses and to estimate parameters of the developmental system. In particular, Lyon's (1961) hypotheses are used as a basis of the mathematical model. Experimental mouse data and three sets of human experimental data are analyzed using the hypothesized Gaussian model. The estimated biological parameters are consistent with some current biological theories.     

Logical problems and misunderstandings in “problems with dimensionless measurement models of synchrony in biological systems”

A model for the standardized measurement of synchrony in behavioral or biological states was proposed for use in comparative analyses of synchrony's adaptive significance. A recent critique attempts to discredit dimensionless (unitless) or standardized measures of synchrony in general and the proposed model in particular. Although the critique helps define and sharpen thinking about the measurement of synchrony and makes some well‐taken points, it also arrives at questionable conclusions based upon dubious assumptions. The critique proceeds from a fictional example in which all biological states being considered always have exactly the same durations for all individuals and always start or end for all individuals at exactly the same instants in time. These unreal, biologically meaningless premises, together with other questionable assumptions, are the basis of inappropriate analyses of standardized measures. The critique's arguments reveal a failure to understand the basic underlying principle of the standardized method and are dependent upon faulty logic. A statistical discussion contains both worthy points and arguable comments based not on data or actual probabilities of real events but on irrelevant chance outcomes derived from the biologically meaningless assumptions. The critique's conclusions are not credible, and its basic question probably is not scientifically answerable. Am. J. Primatol. 47:29–42, 1999. © 1999 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

P > .05: The incorrect interpretation of “not significant” results is a significant problem

Statistically nonsignificant (p > .05) results from a null hypothesis significance test (NHST) are often mistakenly interpreted as evidence that the null hypothesis is true—that there is “no effect” or “no difference.” However, many of these results occur because the study had low statistical power to detect an effect. Power below 50% is common, in which case a result of no statistical significance is more likely to be incorrect than correct. The inference of “no effect” is not valid even if power is high. NHST assumes that the null hypothesis is true; p is the probability of the data under the assumption that there is no effect. A statistical test cannot confirm what it assumes. These incorrect statistical inferences could be eliminated if decisions based on p values were replaced by a biological evaluation of effect sizes and their confidence intervals. For a single study, the observed effect size is the best estimate of the population effect size, regardless of the p value. Unlike p values, confidence intervals provide information about the precision of the observed effect. In the biomedical and pharmacology literature, methods have been developed to evaluate whether effects are “equivalent,” rather than zero, as tested with NHST. These methods could be used by biological anthropologists to evaluate the presence or absence of meaningful biological effects. Most of what appears to be known about no difference or no effect between sexes, between populations, between treatments, and other circumstances in the biological anthropology literature is based on invalid statistical inference.     

Selection of evolutionary models for phylogenetic hypothesis testing using parametric methods

Recent molecular studies have incorporated the parametric bootstrap method to test a priori hypotheses when the results of molecular based phylogenies are in conflict with these hypotheses. The parametric bootstrap requires the specification of a particular substitutional model, the parameters of which will be used to generate simulated, replicate DNA sequence data sets. It has been both suggested that, (a) the method appears robust to changes in the model of evolution, and alternatively that, (b) as realistic model of DNA substitution as possible should be used to avoid false rejection of a null hypothesis. Here we empirically evaluate the effect of suboptimal substitution models when testing hypotheses of monophyly with the parametric bootstrap using data sets of mtDNA cytochrome oxidase I and II (COI and COII) sequences for Macaronesian Calathus beetles, and mitochondrial 16S rDNA and nuclear ITS2 sequences for European Timarcha beetles. Whether a particular hypothesis of monophyly is rejected or accepted appears to be highly dependent on whether the nucleotide substitution model being used is optimal. It appears that a parameter rich model is either equally or less likely to reject a hypothesis of monophyly where the optimal model is unknown. A comparison of the performance of the Kishino–Hasegawa (KH) test shows it is not as severely affected by the use of suboptimal models, and overall it appears to be a less conservative method with a higher rate of failure to reject null hypotheses.     

基于功能性状多维性理解外来物种入侵的达尔文归化难题

达尔文归化难题是进行外来物种入侵预测的重要理论依据,然而,达尔文归化假说和预适应假说却预测了2种截然不同的结果。事实上,达尔文归化难题争论的焦点是物种间的差异性还是相似性促进了外来物种的成功入侵,究其原因可能是忽略了功能性状的多维性。所谓功能性状的多维性,就是不同的功能性状可能代表着不同的生态功能轴,外来物种的入侵是多个维度上不同生态过程的综合结果。本研究以现代物种共存理论为基础,构建了一个基于环境过滤和适合度差异2个维度的入侵预测模型框架,不同维度对应着不同的功能性状以及不同的种间相似性关系。该预测模型表明,在环境过滤维度上与本地物种性状趋同,同时,在适合度维度上与本地物种性状趋异的外来物种是潜在的入侵物种,而其危害程度主要取决于本地群落的构建过程。该模型框架可为外来物种入侵预警提供理论依据,也可为生物多样性保护、外来物种的防治与管理等提供实践指导。     

Patterns and processes in complex landscapes: testing alternative biogeographical hypotheses through integrated analysis of phylogeography and community ecology in Hawai'i

The Island of Hawai'i is a dynamic assemblage of five volcanoes with wet forest habitat currently existing in four distinct natural regions that vary in area, age and geographical isolation. In this complex landscape, alternative assumptions of the relative importance of specific habitat characteristics on evolutionary and ecological processes predict strikingly different general patterns of local diversity and regional similarity. In this study, we compare alternative a priori hypotheses against observed patterns within two distinct biological systems and scales: community composition of wet forest vascular plant species and mitochondrial and nuclear genes of Drosophila sproati, a wet‐forest‐restricted endemic. All observed patterns display strong and similar regional structuring, with the greatest local diversity found in Kohala and the windward side of Mauna Loa, the least in Ka'ū and Kona, and a distinctive pattern of regional similarity that probably reflects the historical development of this habitat on the island. These observations largely corroborate a biogeographical model that integrates multiple lines of evidence, including climatic reconstruction, over those relying on single measures, such as current habitat configuration or substrate age. This method of testing alternative hypotheses across biological systems and scales is an innovative approach for understanding complex landscapes and should prove valuable in diverse biogeographical systems.     

Exposure to perceived male rivals raises men's testosterone on fertile relative to nonfertile days of their partner's ovulatory cycle

The challenge hypothesis posits that male testosterone levels increase in the presence of fertile females to facilitate mating and increase further in the presence of male rivals to facilitate male–male competition. This hypothesis has been supported in a number of nonhuman animal species. We conducted an experiment to test the challenge hypothesis in men. Thirty-four men were randomly assigned to view high-competitive or low-competitive male rivals at high and low fertility within their partner's ovulatory cycle (confirmed by luteinizing hormone tests). Testosterone was measured upon arrival to the lab and before and after the manipulation. Based on the challenge hypothesis, we predicted that a) men's baseline testosterone would be higher at high relative to low fertility within their partner's cycle, and b) men's testosterone would be higher in response to high-competitive rivals, but not in response to low-competitive rivals, at high relative to low fertility within their partner's cycle. Contrary to the first prediction, men's baseline testosterone levels did not differ across high and low fertility. However, consistent with the second prediction, men exposed to high-competitive rivals showed significantly higher post-test testosterone levels at high relative to low fertility, controlling for pre-test testosterone levels. Men exposed to low-competitive rivals showed no such pattern (though the fertility by competition condition interaction fell short of statistical significance). This preliminary support for the challenge hypothesis in men builds on a growing empirical literature suggesting that men possess mating adaptations sensitive to fertility cues emitted by their female partners.