A maximum entropy and GIS approach to predict potential habitat for northern bobwhites in the Black Belt prairie physiographic region of Alabama

Northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) populations have sustained precipitous declines throughout their range. The North American Breeding Bird Survey for Alabama indicates a rate of decline of over 6% per year since 1966. Declining bobwhite populations have been associated with large-scale habitat loss and a reduction in habitat quality due to advances in ecological succession, intensive monoculture agriculture, and intensive timber management practices. Once a very diverse region, modern land-use practices throughout the Black Belt Prairie physiographic region have created a simplified landscape that have left few places where bobwhites can live and thrive. Despite extensive research on bobwhites, there is insufficient knowledge on the spatial distribution of bobwhite habitat on a regional scale, including the Black Belt Prairie physiographic region. Knowing the spatial distribution of suitable bobwhite habitat will allow conservation planners to prioritize efforts and direct limited resources to achieve conservation goals for the region. The goals of this study were to 1) evaluate the maximum entropy modeling approach for predicting northern bobwhite habitat in the Black Belt Prairie physiographic region, and 2) develop a northern bobwhite habitat suitability map for the Black Belt Prairie physiographic region. The results showed that deciduous 1.8 km (1.8 km is the dispersal distance of bobwhites) neighborhood was the most important habitat variable, followed by water 1.8 km neighborhood. Developed 1.8 km neighborhood was the most important anthropogenic variable, ranking third in overall importance. The resultant model denotes potential habitat in the region and forms the basis for using the maximum entropy and geographic information system approach to predict suitable habitat and prioritize areas for conservation.     

Estimating regional landbird populations from enhanced North American Breeding Bird Surveys

Estimating the size of bird populations is central to effective conservation planning and prudent management. I updated estimated regional bird populations for the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi using data from 275 North American Breeding Bird Surveys from 2009 to 2013. However, regional bird populations estimated from count surveys of breeding birds may be biased due to lack of empirical knowledge of the distance at which a species is effectively detected and the probability of detecting a species if it is present. I used data recorded within two distance classes (0–50 m and >50–400 m) and three 1‐min time intervals on 130 Breeding Bird Surveys to estimate detection probability and effective detection distance for 77 species. Incorporating these empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance resulted in estimated regional populations for these species that were markedly greater than regional populations estimated without species‐specific estimates of detection parameters. Using the same Breeding Bird Survey data, I also estimated probability of site occupancy for 66 species and extrapolated this to the proportion of area occupied in the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi. I combined the area occupied with the reported range of breeding territory size for 54 species to obtain independent estimates of regional bird populations. Although the true population of these species is unknown, estimated populations that incorporated empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance were more likely to be within the range of independently estimated, occupancy‐based, regional population estimates than were population estimates that lacked empirical detection and distance information.     

A multispecies approach to manage effects of land cover and weather on upland game birds

Loss and degradation of grasslands in the Great Plains region have resulted in major declines in abundance of grassland bird species. To ensure future viability of grassland bird populations, it is crucial to evaluate specific effects of environmental factors among species to determine drivers of population decline and develop effective conservation strategies. We used threshold models to quantify the effects of land cover and weather changes in "lesser prairie‐chicken" and "greater prairie‐chicken" (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus and T. cupido, respectively), northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus), and ring‐necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus). We demonstrated a novel approach for estimating landscape conditions needed to optimize abundance across multiple species at a variety of spatial scales. Abundance of all four species was highest following wet summers and dry winters. Prairie chicken and ring‐necked pheasant abundance was highest following cool winters, while northern bobwhite abundance was highest following warm winters. Greater prairie chicken and northern bobwhite abundance was also highest following cooler summers. Optimal abundance of each species occurred in landscapes that represented a grassland and cropland mosaic, though prairie chicken abundance was optimized in landscapes with more grassland and less edge habitat than northern bobwhites and ring‐necked pheasants. Because these effects differed among species, managing for an optimal landscape for multiple species may not be the optimal scenario for any one species.     

Assessing Ecoregional-Scale Habitat Suitability Index Models for Priority Landbirds

ABSTRACT Emerging methods in habitat and wildlife population modeling promise new horizons in conservation but only if these methods provide robust population-habitat linkages. We used Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data to verify and validate newly developed habitat suitability index (HSI) models for 40 priority landbird species in the Central Hardwoods and West Gulf Coastal Plain/Ouachitas Bird Conservation Regions. We considered a species’ HSI model verified if there was a significant rank correlation between mean predicted HSI score and mean observed BBS abundance across the 88 ecological subsections within these Bird Conservation Regions. When we included all subsections, correlations verified 37 models. Models for 3 species were unverified. Rank correlations for an additional 5 species were not significant when analyses included only subsections with BBS abundance >0. To validate models, we developed generalized linear models with mean observed BBS abundance as the response variable and mean HSI score and Bird Conservation Region as predictor variables. We considered verified models validated if the overall model was an improvement over an intercept-only null model and the coefficient on the HSI variable in the model was >0. Validation provided a more rigorous assessment of model performance than verification, and models for 12 species that we verified failed validation. Species whose models failed validation were either poorly sampled by BBS protocols or associated with woodland and shrubland habitats embedded within predominantly open landscapes. We validated models for 25 species. Habitat specialists and species reaching their highest densities in predominantly forested landscapes were more likely to have validated models. In their current form, validated models are useful for conservation planning of priority landbirds and offer both insight into limiting factors at ecoregional scales and a framework for monitoring priority landbird populations from readily available national data sets.     

Effects of Understory Vegetation Management on Brood Habitat for Northern Bobwhites

Abstract: Northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) populations have experienced severe declines for several decades, and declines have been particularly precipitous in the southern United States. These declines are partially attributable to large-scale conversions of potential habitat to short-rotation pine (Pinus spp.) forests managed for wood fiber production and fire exclusion in pine-dominated landscapes. We used standard arthropod sampling techniques, human-imprinted bobwhite chicks, and vegetation response to evaluate effects of different understory vegetation management practices on brood habitat quality within a commercially managed pine forest in Louisiana, USA, during 2002–2005. Specifically, we evaluated effects of mowing, prescribed fire during the growing season, prescribed fire in combination with imazapyr application, and no vegetation management on arthropod abundance and diversity, vegetation response, and the probability of bobwhite chicks successfully capturing an arthropod. Bobwhite chicks were more successful at capturing arthropods, and arthropod abundance and diversity were greatest, in plant communities managed using prescribed fire and imazapyr. Forest stands managed using a combination of fire and imazapyr were managed primarily to benefit the federally endangered red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis; RCW). Our findings suggest that management directed toward improving forest condition for RCWs improves habitat quality for brooding bobwhites. However, bobwhite chicks in our study area were less successful at capturing arthropods than were chicks in other studies in the southeastern United States. Brood-rearing habitat in pine forests similar to those we studied may be of generally poor quality, and could be related to precipitous declines of bobwhites in the West Gulf Coastal Plain. Managers should recognize that creating high-quality brood habitat in forests similar to those we studied will require more intensive management of understory vegetation than we studied.     

Genetic differentiation, structure, and a transition zone among populations of the pitcher plant moth Exyra semicrocea: implications for conservation

Pitcher plant bogs, or carnivorous plant wetlands, have experienced extensive habitat loss and fragmentation throughout the southeastern United States Coastal Plain, resulting in an estimated reduction to <3% of their former range. This situation has lead to increased management attention of these habitats and their carnivorous plant species. However, conservation priorities focus primarily on the plants since little information currently exists on other community members, such as their endemic arthropod biota. Here, we investigated the population structure of one of these, the obligate pitcher plant moth Exyra semicrocea (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), using mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene sequences. Examination of 221 individuals from 11 populations across eight southeastern US states identified 51 unique haplotypes. These haplotypes belonged to one of two divergent (～1.9-3.0%) lineages separated by the Mississippi alluvial plain. Populations of the West Gulf Coastal Plain exhibited significant genetic structure, contrasting with similarly distanced populations east of the Mississippi alluvial plain. In the eastern portion of the Coastal Plain, an apparent transition zone exists between two regionally distinct population groups, with a well-established genetic discontinuity for other organisms coinciding with this zone. The structure of E. semicrocea appears to have been influenced by patchy pitcher plant bog habitats in the West Gulf Coastal Plain as well as impacts of Pleistocene interglacials on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin. These findings, along with potential extirpation of E. semicrocea at four visited, but isolated, sites highlight the need to consider other endemic or associated community members when managing and restoring pitcher plant bog habitats.     

Spatial Variation of Bird Species in Landscapes Dominated by Old-growth Forests in Northern Boreal Finland

An important issue in conservation planning is to study the distribution and abundance patterns of species in natural landscapes. Information of concordant and clumped species distribution pattertns can enhance attempts to focus conservation efforts in sites/areas preferred by various species. We compared bird species abundance, community composition and species distribution patterns in three large old-growth forest areas (size 40–120 km²) in northern boreal Finland on the basis of quantitative bird censuses. Total bird density and species composition, and mean density and variances of the most abundant species were highly similar between the three areas. Most of the bird species were distributed randomly within the areas and species preferring old-growth forests showed compensatory density variation without preference for any sub-area. Mean density of species preferring old-growth forests was significantly higher in the studied large old-growth forests than in smaller old-growth forests and was about threefold higher than regional density of species in a predominantly managed landscape matrix. Bird species preferring old-growth forests are probably not dependent on a certain specific part of a virgin boreal forest landscape but rather on the overall size of the high-quality and diverse old-growth forest area.     

Home range and habitat selection of northern bobwhite coveys in an agricultural landscape

Northern bobwhites thrive in fine-grained landscapes with a diversity of early succession woodland, grassland, and agriculture-associated habitat types. Bobwhite conservation has proved challenging in the increasingly coarse-grained Midwestern landscape as simplified agricultural cropping systems are implemented at larger spatial scales. Regardless, managing agricultural landscapes on private lands is the primary opportunity to restore bobwhite populations in the Midwestern United States. Although bobwhite habitat requirements are well understood, habitat selection in contemporary Midwestern landscapes is not well understood, especially on private lands where populations are declining. We used compositional analysis to investigate second- (study area) and third- (home range) order habitat selection by radiomarked bobwhite coveys on 4 private land study areas in southwestern Ohio. Mean covey home range size was 26.1 ± 2.2 ha (n = 48). Although home ranges were established in areas with more grassland cover, bobwhites most strongly selected early succession woody habitat (e.g., fencerows and ditches) at all scales, and selection for grassland diminished between the study area and home range scales. Grassland selection varied among sites and was strongest on sites with more row crop area. Woodlots were avoided at the study area scale, but were selected within home ranges. Grassland cover, like that provided by contemporary conservation programs, is an essential component of bobwhite habitat in the Midwest, but our results suggest more emphasis should be placed on early succession woody cover. Woody cover associated with fencerows, ditches, and woodlots adjacent to food sources and breeding habitat will likely improve non-breeding season survival, which is an influential vital rate in northern populations. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Winter bird communities in the northern Negev: species dispersal patterns, habitat use and implications for habitat conservation

Bird habitat conservation may require different management strategies for different seasonal bird assemblages. We studied habitat use by winter birds in forest and scrubland habitat patches in the northern Negev, Israel. Our goal was to assess whether differences in responses to landscape and habitat structure between breeding and non-breeding seasons require changes in future conservation plans that have been suggested for the Negev breeding bird community. We evaluated habitat and area effects on bird abundance and distribution and tested whether species habitat use during winter involves niche shifts. Compared with breeding birds, a larger proportion of winter bird species occupied both scrubland and forest. As in summer, forest bird species responded to habitat structure, whereas scrubland species were associated with both habitat structure and area. Resident birds disperse into habitats in which they were not present during summer. Consequently, for several species, the correlation between bird densities and environmental factors showed a better fit at the landscape rather than at the habitat scale. In addition, rather than niche shift, birds actually extended their niche breadth. Nest site selection may constrain bird distribution into a realized niche, smaller than their fundamental niche. Despite the scale differences in habitat use, the similar species diversity patterns between seasons suggest that both winter and summer birds would benefit from conservation of scrub patches larger than 50 ha, and enrichment of foliage layers within the planted forests.     

Spatial variation and biogeography of sand forest avian assemblages in South Africa

Aim To examine biogeographical affiliations, habitat‐associated heterogeneity and endemism of avian assemblages in sand forest patches and the savanna‐like mixed woodland matrix. Location Two reserves in the Maputaland Centre of Endemism (MC) on the southern Mozambique Coastal Plain of northern KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa. Methods Replicated surveys were undertaken in each of the two habitat types in each reserve, providing species abundance data over a full year. Vegetation structure at each of the survey sites was also quantified. Differences between the bird assemblages and the extent to which vegetation structure explained these differences were assessed using multi‐variate techniques. Biogeographical comparisons were based on species presence/absence data and clustering techniques. Results Bird assemblages differed significantly between habitats both within a given reserve and between reserves, and also between reserves for a given habitat. Differences in vegetation structure contributed substantially to differences between the avian assemblages. Of the four species endemic to the MC, three (Neergaard’s sunbird, Rudd’s apalis, and Woodward’s batis) were consistently present in sand forest. The fourth (pink‐throated twinspot) preferred mixed woodland. None of these endemic species was classed as rare. In the biogeographical analysis, both the sand forest and the mixed woodland bird assemblages were most similar to bird assemblages found in the forest biome or the Afromontane forest biome, depending on the biome classification used. Main conclusions The close affinities of sand forest and mixed woodland assemblages to those of the forest biome are most likely due to similarities in vegetation structure of these forests. Bird assemblages differ between the sand forest and mixed woodland habitats both within a given reserve and between reserves, and also between reserves for a given habitat. These differences extend to species endemic to the MC. Thus, conservation of sand forest habitat in a variety of areas is necessary to ensure the long‐term persistence of the biota.     

Avian responses to forest fragmentation during the breeding and non-breeding seasons

Forest fragmentation represents a threat to several bird species worldwide. Several factors can change across seasons (e.g. bird perception of the landscape, weather conditions, biotic interactions), which can modify the response of bird populations to forest fragmentation. However, most studies have been conducted only during the breeding season. Here we assessed the relationship between forest fragmentation (patch area and patch isolation) with population abundances of resident species during both the breeding and the non-breeding seasons. Bird population abundances (all species in the community, subsets of forest and habitat generalist species and for individual species) were estimated across a gradient of area-isolation in a semi-arid forest in Cordoba, Argentina. Population abundance of the overall avian community and of the subset of forest species declined with patch area reduction independently of the season. By contrast, the subset of habitat generalist species was not affected by patch area reduction or by the increase in patch isolation, either during the breeding or during the non-breeding season. When the analyses were carried out for individual species, we found four forest species and one habitat generalist species whose responses (the relationship between population abundance and patch area or with isolation) were different between breeding and non-breeding seasons. The negative effects of forest fragmentation were found mainly during the breeding season. Our results suggest that reduction of patch area may lead to a reduction of more than 65% of the population abundance of forest bird species, during both the breeding and the non-breeding season. Therefore, there is an urgent need to conserve large forest patches within the region as irreplaceable elements for the conservation of populations of several species.     

Relationships between patterns of habitat cover and the historical distribution of the Marsh Tit,Willow Tit and Lesser Spotted Woodpecker in Britain

Spatial analysis of remotely-sensed land cover data in conjunction with species distribution atlases can reveal large-scale relationships between animal taxa and their habitats. We investigated the historical distribution patterns of three declining woodland birds, the Marsh Tit (Poecile palustris), Willow Tit (Poecile montana) and Lesser Spotted Woodpecker (Dendrocopos minor), in relation to a parsimonious landscape metric for describing habitat availability in Britain. Bird distributions were derived from two field-based atlas surveys, conducted in 1968–1972 and 1988–1991, and used to classify areas of the landscape for each species as retained, lost or gained between atlas periods, or unoccupied in both. We used remotely-sensed land cover data from 1990 to compare percentage habitat cover between landscape areas classified by bird occupation, and regional summary data from national woodland inventories to investigate changes in habitat cover and bird distributions. Percentage habitat cover was a sufficient landscape metric to explain the distribution pattern of all three bird species; habitat cover was greatest in areas where each species was retained between atlas surveys, significantly less in areas from which species were lost, and least in areas that remained unoccupied. Reductions in Marsh Tit distribution were less in regions that showed greater increases in habitat cover, but there was no such relationship for other species. Results indicated that spatial studies could be used to infer aspects of the spatial ecology of species where field data is lacking: by comparing distribution patterns with the relatively well-studied Marsh Tit, we found support for the assumption that the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker occupies very large territories in Britain, and provided evidence that the spatial habitat requirements of the Marsh Tit could be used as a proxy for the data-poor Willow Tit. The results showed that the habitat cover required to retain each species in the landscape had increased over time, illustrating how spatial studies can be used to identify priorities for further research and suggest conservation measures for declining species, and these are discussed.     

Northern bobwhite response to Conservation Reserve Program habitat and landscape attributes

The northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhite) has experienced substantial population declines in recent decades in the United States, and especially in Maryland and Delaware. The United States Department of Agriculture's Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) could provide additional habitat for bobwhites, leading to an increase in bobwhite abundance. I investigated if bobwhite abundance was related to the percent cover of CRP land and landscape attributes in local landscapes on Maryland's Eastern Shore and Delaware. Observers conducted bobwhite point transect surveys at 113 locations during the breeding seasons of 2006–2007, and I calculated landscape metrics for 500-m radius landscapes centered on each point transect location. Most CRP land in the study landscapes was planted to herbaceous vegetation. Bobwhite abundance was strongly positively associated with percent cover of CRP land in the landscape but was not strongly related to percent cover of agriculture or forest or to landscape patch density. These results suggest that the CRP has created additional habitat for bobwhites in Maryland and Delaware and that landscapes with greater proportions of herbaceous CRP practices support more bobwhites. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Habitat Value of Intensively Established Pine Plantations for Northern Bobwhite

ABSTRACT Declines in northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; bobwhite) populations in the southeastern United States may be partially attributable to loss of early successional plant cover associated with greater use of herbicides in forest management. We tested effects of 5 levels of operational plantation establishment intensity on vegetation communities and structure important for bobwhite in 1–5-year-old loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantations (n = 4) in the Outer Coastal Plain Mixed Forest of Mississippi. We compared results with values reported in the literature to calculate usable space for winter food, loafing, nesting, and brood-rearing at 2 levels of spatial resolution. Treatments (k = 5) reflected a range of management intensities and were combinations of mechanical site preparation, chemical site preparation (CSP), and herbaceous weed control (HWC). Coverage of winter food plants in the least intensive treatment was more than double that in the most intensive; however, differences in usable space of winter food cover were negligible due to improved accessibility in more intensive treatments. Although CSP reduced coverage of nonpine woody plants across all years, loafing cover reached adequate levels by year 3 in all treatments. Usable nesting cover was <4% across all years and treatments and was nearly eliminated by the reduction in herbaceous cover and visual screening cover following broadcast HWC. Optimal brood-rearing habitat was virtually absent in all treatments and years due to the lack of conjoint occurrence of bare ground and forb canopy. Although bobwhite habitat may have been promoted by formerly widespread plantation establishment methods that involved wide-scale soil disturbance, those established using newer methods with less soil disturbance are likely inadequate for most bobwhite habitat requirements. Efforts to provide bobwhite habitat in plantation-dominated landscapes may have to rely on management of thinned mid-rotation stands and permanent landscape features such as rights-of-way. The value of young plantations for bobwhite may be increased by reducing management intensity or increasing spacing between planting rows, thus increasing time before crown closure and providing opportunity for understory manipulations.     

The value of scattered trees for wildlife: Contrasting effects of landscape context and tree size

Aim

The biodiversity value of scattered trees in modified landscapes is often overlooked in planning and conservation decisions. We conducted a multitaxa study to determine how wildlife abundance, species richness and community composition at individual trees are affected by (1) the landscape context in which trees are located; and (2) the size of trees.

Location

Canberra, south‐eastern Australia.

Methods

Trunk arthropod, bat and bird surveys were undertaken over 3 years (2012–2014) at 72 trees of three sizes (small (20–50 cm DBH), medium (51–80 cm), large (≥80 cm)) located in four landscape contexts (reserves, pasture, urban parklands, urban built‐up areas).

Results

Landscape context affected all taxa surveyed. Trunk arthropod communities differed between trees in urban built‐up areas and reserves. Bat activity and richness were significantly reduced at trees in urban built‐up areas suggesting that echolocating bats may be disturbed by high levels of urbanization. Bird abundance and richness were highest at trees located in modified landscapes, highlighting the value of scattered trees for birds. Bird communities also differed between non‐urban and urban trees. Tree size had a significant effect on birds but did not affect trunk arthropods and bats. Large trees supported higher bird abundance, richness and more unique species compared to medium and small trees.

Main conclusions

Scattered trees support a diversity of wildlife. However, landscape context and tree size affected wildlife in contrasting ways. Land management strategies are needed to collectively account for responses exhibited by multiple taxa at varying spatial scales. We recommend that the retention and perpetuation of scattered trees in modified landscapes should be prioritized, hereby providing crucial habitat benefits to a multitude of taxa.     

Effects of Habitat Structure and Adjacent Habitats on Birds in Tropical Rainforest Fragments and Shaded Plantations in the Western Ghats, India

As large nature reserves occupy only a fraction of the earth’s land surface, conservation biologists are critically examining the role of private lands, habitat fragments, and plantations for conservation. This study in a biodiversity hotspot and endemic bird area, the Western Ghats mountains of India, examined the effects of habitat structure, floristics, and adjacent habitats on bird communities in shade-coffee and cardamom plantations and tropical rainforest fragments. Habitat and birds were sampled in 13 sites: six fragments (three relatively isolated and three with canopy connectivity with adjoining shade-coffee plantations and forests), six plantations differing in canopy tree species composition (five coffee and one cardamom), and one undisturbed primary rainforest control site in the Anamalai hills. Around 3300 detections of 6000 individual birds belonging to 106 species were obtained. The coffee plantations were poorer than rainforest in rainforest bird species, particularly endemic species, but the rustic cardamom plantation with diverse, native rainforest shade trees, had bird species richness and abundance comparable to primary rainforest. Plantations and fragments that adjoined habitats providing greater tree canopy connectivity supported more rainforest and fewer open-forest bird species and individuals than sites that lacked such connectivity. These effects were mediated by strong positive effects of vegetation structure, particularly woody plant variables, cane, and bamboo, on bird community structure. Bird community composition was however positively correlated only to floristic (tree species) composition of sites. The maintenance or restoration of habitat structure and (shade) tree species composition in shade-coffee and cardamom plantations and rainforest fragments can aid in rainforest bird conservation in the regional landscape.     

Resistance is futile: effects of landscape features on gene flow of the northern bobwhite

Habitat for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) has declined and changed drastically in spatial structure throughout the last century. Undoubtedly such changes have impacted bobwhite and may have altered their ability to access available habitat. We investigated whether landscape resistance, geographic distance, or interstate highway barriers were related to dispersal and gene flow of bobwhite in central and southern Illinois. Landscape resistance was determined from two empirically informed models depicting habitat suitability for bobwhite. During 2007–2008, hunters submitted bobwhite tissue samples from which we amplified 11 microsatellites. The relationship between individual genetic distances and spatial variables was analyzed with Mantel tests and causal modeling was used to verify the spatial variables influencing gene flow. Genetic distance was correlated with geographic distance but showed no relationship with interstate highway barriers. Habitat suitability did not enhance gene flow, and was inversely related in some partial Mantel tests. We suggest that bobwhite dispersal from suitable habitat patches may be less frequent than from suboptimal habitats. Bobwhite may be able to access suitable habitat across gaps of unsuitable habitat but distance limits their dispersal. Because available habitat for bobwhites may have a greater likelihood of being colonized when closer to occupied habitat, we suggest that lands closer to occupied habitat should be targeted for conservation or habitat improvement efforts.     

Predicting changes in the abundance of African wetland birds by incorporating abundance–occupancy relationships into habitat association models

Aim To map changes in the abundance of African wetland birds using remotely derived habitat data. We show that abundance–occupancy relationships can be coupled with habitat association models to map changes in abundance. As conservation resources are more easily allocated when spatial and temporal patterns of abundance are known, our method provides guidance for conservation planning. Location Papyrus, Cyperus papyrus, swamps in east central Africa. Methods Presence/absence surveys of six bird species in 93 wetlands were used to construct models predicting probability of occurrence from habitat characteristics. Densities were then determined from surveys in 23 additional wetlands and modelled as functions of occurrence probability. We then used satellite imagery to derive habitat characteristics remotely in two time periods (1984–87 and 2000–03) and used the modelled relationships between (1) habitat and occupancy and (2) occupancy and density, to infer changes in abundance in all c. 30,000 wetlands within the study area. Results Wetlands within the region declined by 8.6% between the two time periods, but by > 75% in regions of high human population density. Bird densities were also highest in these regions, which comprised wetlands subject to high levels of disturbance. The geographical coincidence of high densities and habitat loss and the existence of positive associations between bird density and occurrence meant that birds declined by much more than the average rate of their habitat. Main conclusions Targeting conservation efforts in areas with high drainage would protect a high proportion of the bird populations. Encouraging people to derive income from disturbance to which the birds are tolerant, rather than drainage, is likely to be an effective strategy. Because habitat characteristics are a key driver of abundance–occupancy relationships, we conclude that there is wide‐scale scope to couple abundance–occupancy relationships with remote habitat mapping to efficiently inform conservation planning.     

Does the protected area network preserve bird species of conservation concern in a rapidly changing climate?

Species ranges are expected to move polewards following the changing climate, which poses novel challenges to the protected area network, particularly at northern latitudes. Here we study how well protected areas are likely to sustain populations of birds of conservation concern under a changing climate in northern Europe, in Finland. We fitted bioclimatic envelope models generated for 100 bird species to climate scenario data for the years 2051–2080 and three alternative emission scenarios in a 10-km grid system to predict changes in the species probability of occurrence. We related the projected changes in the climatic suitability to the amount of protected preferred habitat for the study species in the 10-km grid cells, and based on the cover of four main CORINE Land Cover classes in each conservation area in Finland. The probability of occurrence of all species (except marshland birds) decreased according to all scenarios, the decline being greatest in southern and smallest in northern boreal zones. This decline was slightly greater in unprotected than in protected areas for species of forests, mires and mountain habitats. The climatically suitable areas for the species were predicted to shift northwards, but the potential gain of southern species of conservation concern appears not to compensate for the loss of northern species. Thus, a representative protected area network is needed in all boreal zones. Overall, our results show that species-specific habitat preferences and habitat availability should be taken into account when assessing the efficiency of a protected area network in a changing climate.