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1.
2002年、2003年和2004年的12月至3月,在小兴安岭黑河胜山林场开展了驼鹿生境选择的研究。研究中选择了9类与驼鹿生境选择相关的生态因子:植被型、离公路距离、离采伐点距离、平均雪深、隐蔽程度、坡向、坡位、坡度、海拔,运用SPSS软件进行交叉汇总定量分析。结果表明,胜山驼鹿冬季以落叶阔叶林、灌丛为主要生境,影响驼鹿分布的主要生态因子为隐蔽程度、坡位,其次为雪深、坡向、离采伐点距离、离公路距离,坡度、海拔对驼鹿分布的影响不明显。  相似文献   

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Since 2010, several moose (Alces alces) populations have declined across North America. These declines are believed to be broadly related to climate and landscape change. At the western reaches of moose continental range, in the interior of British Columbia, Canada, wildlife managers have reported widespread declines of moose populations. Disturbances to forests from a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonum ponderosae) outbreak and associated salvage logging infrastructure in British Columbia are suspected as a mechanism manifested in moose behavior and habitat selection. We examined seasonal differences in moose habitat selection in response to landscape change from mountain pine beetle salvage logging infrastructure: dense road networks and large intensive forest harvest cutblocks. We used 157,447 global positioning system locations from 83 adult female moose from 2012 to 2016 on the Bonaparte Plateau at the southern edge of the Interior Plateau of central British Columbia to test whether increased forage availability, landscape features associated with increased mortality risk, or the cumulative effects of salvage logging best explain female moose distribution using resource selection functions in an information-theoretic framework. We tested these hypotheses across biological seasons, defined using a cluster analysis framework. The cumulative effects of forage availability and risk best predicted resource selection of female moose in all seasons; however, the covariates included in the cumulative models varied between seasons. The top forage availability model better explained moose habitat use than the top risk model in all seasons, except for the calving and fall seasons where the top risk model (distance to road) better predicted moose space use. Selection of habitat that provides forage in winter, spring, and summer suggests that moose seasonally trade predation risk for the benefits of foraging in early seral vegetation communities in highly disturbed landscapes. Our results identified the need for intensive landscape-scale management to stem moose population declines. Additional research is needed on predator densities, space use, and calf survival in relation to salvage logging infrastructure. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.  相似文献   

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Animal movements, needed to acquire food resources, avoid predation risk, and find breeding partners, are influenced by annual and circadian cycles. Decisions related to movement reflect a quest to maximize benefits while limiting costs, especially in heterogeneous landscapes. Predation by wolves (Canis lupus) has been identified as the major driver of moose (Alces alces) habitat selection patterns, and linear features have been shown to increase wolf efficiency to travel, hunt, and kill prey. However, few studies have described moose behavioral response to roads and logging in Canada in the absence of wolves. We thus characterized temporal changes (i.e., day phases and biological periods) in eastern moose (Alces alces americana) habitat selection and space use patterns near a road network in a wolf-free area located south of the St. Lawrence River (eastern Canada). We used telemetry data collected on 18 females between 2017 and 2019 to build resource selection functions and mixed linear regressions to explain variations in habitat selection patterns, home-range size, and movement rates. Female moose selected forest stands providing forage when movement was not impeded by snow cover (i.e., spring/green-up, summer/rearing, fall/rut) and stands offering protection against incidental predation during calving. In winter, home-range size decreased with an increasing proportion of stands providing food and shelter against harsh weather, limiting the energetic costs associated with movement. Our results reaffirmed the year-round aversive effect of roads, even in the absence of wolves, but the magnitude of this avoidance differed between day phases, being lower during the “dusk-night-dawn” phase, perhaps due to a lower level of human activity on and near roads. Female moose behavior in our study area was similar to what was observed in landscapes where moose and wolves cohabit, suggesting that the risk associated with humans, perceived as another type of predator, and with incidental predators (coyote Canis latrans, black bear Ursus americanus), equates that of wolf predation in heavily managed landscapes.  相似文献   

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ABSTRACT Studies of resource selection form the basis for much of our understanding of wildlife habitat requirements, and resource selection functions (RSFs), which predict relative probability of use, have been proposed as a unifying concept for analysis and interpretation of wildlife habitat data. Logistic regression that contrasts used and available or unused resource units is one of the most common analyses for developing RSFs. Recently, resource utilization functions (RUFs) have been developed, which also predict probability of use. Unlike RSFs, however, RUFs are based on a continuous metric of space use summarized by a utilization distribution. Although both RSFs and RUFs predict space use, a direct comparison of these 2 modeling approaches is lacking. We compared performance of RSFs and RUFs by applying both approaches to location data for 75 Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) and 39 mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) collected at the Starkey Experimental Forest and Range in northeastern Oregon, USA. We evaluated differences in maps of predicted probability of use, relative ranking of habitat variables, and predictive power between the 2 models. For elk, 3 habitat variables were statistically significant (P < 0.05) in the RSF, whereas 7 variables were significant in the RUF. Maps of predicted probability of use differed substantially between the 2 models for elk, as did the relative ranking of habitat variables. For mule deer, 4 variables were significant in the RSF, whereas 6 were significant in the RUF, and maps of predicted probability of use were similar between models. In addition, distance to water was the top-ranked variable in both models for mule deer. Although space use by both species was predicted most accurately by the RSF based on cross-validation, differences in predictive power between models were more substantial for elk than mule deer. To maximize accuracy and utility of predictive wildlife-habitat models, managers must be aware of the relative strengths and weaknesses of different modeling techniques. We conclude that although RUFs represent a substantial advance in resource selection theory, techniques available for generating RUFs remain underdeveloped and, as a result, RUFs sometimes predict less accurately than models derived using more conventional techniques.  相似文献   

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The distribution and numbers of tsessebe (Damaliscus lunatus lunatus) have declined considerably in South Africa, partly due to deteriorating habitat conditions. Identifying important habitat variables will assist in managing the species. The objective of this study was to identify habitat variables important for tsessebe and to develop a predictive model of habitat selection for this species in a savanna biome. The study was conducted in the Nylsvley Nature Reserve over a 2‐year period. A total of eighteen habitat variables were measured in ten plant communities at 200 sites. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictor variables and to construct a habitat model. Tsessebe were found <2 km from the nearest source of water, in flat areas with slopes of <3° and with <10% rockiness. Their distribution was not influenced by the woody component. Sites where tsessebe were present had significantly lower grass heights and tuft heights, with a higher grass density compared with areas not utilized by tsessebe. Nitrogen and sodium levels were also higher at present sites. Habitat type and grass height were the most significant predictors of tsessebe presence. The selected model had an overall percentage prediction of 85.0%. The model was subdivided into five vegetation‐specific models and each model was tested with independent data.  相似文献   

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Scale for resource selection functions   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
Resource selection functions (RSFs) are statistical models defined to be proportional to the probability of use of a resource unit. My objective with this review is to identify how RSFs can be used to unravel the influence of scale in habitat selection. In wildlife habitat studies, including radiotelemetry, RSFs can be estimated using a variety of statistical methods, all of which can be used to explore the role of scale. All RSFs are bounded by the resolution of data and the spatial extent of the study area, but also allow predictor covariates to be measured at a variety of scales. Conditional logistic regression permits designs (e.g. matched case) that relate the process of habitat selection to a limited domain of resource units that might better characterize what is truly ‘available’ to the animal. Scale influences the process of habitat selection, e.g. food resources are often selected at fine spatial scales, whereas landscape patterns at much larger scales typically influence the location of home ranges. Scale also influences appropriate sampling in many ways: (1) heterogeneity might be obliterated (transmutation) if resolution or grain size is too large, (2) variance of habitat characteristics might be undersampled if extent or domain is too small, (3) timing and duration of observations can influence RSF models, and (d) both spatial and temporal autocorrelations can vary directly with the intensity of sampling. Using RSFs, researchers can examine habitat selection at multiple scales, and predictive models that bridge scales can be estimated. Using Geographical Information Systems, predictor covariates in RSF models can be measured at different scales easily so that the predictive ability of models at alternative spatial and temporal domains can be explored by the investigator. Identification of the scale that best explains the data can be evaluated by comparing alternative models using information‐theoretic metrics such as Akaike Information Criteria, and predictive capability of the models can be assessed using k‐fold cross validation.  相似文献   

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ABSTRACT Ecologists often develop complex regression models that include multiple categorical and continuous variables, interactions among predictors, and nonlinear relationships between the response and predictor variables. Nomograms, which are graphical devices for presenting mathematical functions and calculating output values, can aid biologists in interpreting and presenting these complex models. To illustrate benefits of nomograms, we developed a logistic regression model of elk (Cervus elaphus) resource selection. With this model, we demonstrated how a nomogram helps scientists and managers interpret interactions among variables, compare the relative biological importance of variables, and examine predicted shapes of relationships (e.g., linear vs. nonlinear) between response and predictor variables. Although our example focused on logistic regression, nomograms are equally useful for other linear and nonlinear models. Regardless of the approach used for model development, nomograms and other graphical summaries can help scientists and managers develop, interpret, and apply statistical models.  相似文献   

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白山原麝国家级自然保护区獐春夏生境选择   总被引:4,自引:2,他引:2       下载免费PDF全文
生境与动物个体密切相关,生境中元素的不同影响着动物个体对不同生境的选择。2018年5-7月和2019年3-4月在吉林省白山原麝国家级自然保护区对獐(Hydropotes inermis)的春夏季生境选择进行了研究,共记录利用样方104个(春季53个,夏季51个),对照样方85个(春季46个,夏季39个)。利用卡方检验对植被类型、优势植物、坡位、坡向4种非数值型环境因子进行分析,结果表明春季和夏季獐对这4种环境因子的选择均具有显著性差异,偏好选择以青蒿(Artemisia carvifolia)为优势植物,位于中坡位,坡向为阳坡的草地生境活动。利用独立样本T检验和Mann-Whitney U检验对海拔、人为干扰距离、水源距离、草本覆盖度、优势草本高度、隐蔽级、坡度7种数值型环境因子进行分析,结果表明春季和夏季獐均偏好选择隐蔽级较高(春季30.189±14.609,夏季62.745±29.737)、优势草本高度较高(春季87.359±16.190,84.510±29.618)、坡度较缓的生境(春季14.245±3.721,13.333±5.260)活动。此外,资源选择函数模型对獐的春季和夏季的生境选择预测正确率均大于90%,表明该模型可以较好地预测獐的生境选择。白山原麝国家级自然保护区獐种群数量较小,适宜性栖息地面积较少,应加强对其种群及适宜性生境的保护。  相似文献   

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We assessed the effects of environmental variables on the distribution and feeding behaviour of adult Little Terns Sternula albifrons in Ria Formosa Natural Park, Algarve, southern Portugal, in different foraging habitats (main lagoon, salinas and sea) during the breeding seasons, April–July, of 2003–05. Foraging density was higher in the lagoon than in the sea, and at low tide. The number of foraging individuals at sea was independent of tide. Individual Little Terns foraged further from the nearest breeding colony in April and May (courtship feeding and incubation) than in June and July (chick-rearing). During intermediate tidal phases, individuals foraged further from the nearest colony, and followed main lagoon channels, perhaps because stronger currents increased prey availability. Diving activity and foraging success were higher in 2003 than 2004 or 2005, perhaps because of greater availability of marine prey in 2003. Diving rate was higher in July (when independent juveniles began learning how to forage) but diving success was higher in June (chick-rearing) than in other months. The variables selected by the final logistic models reflected four basic needs for the selection of feeding habitats by Little Terns: (1) association between foraging individuals, (2) areas with abundant feeding resources, (3) entrance channels and main lagoon channels with strong currents, and (4) the proximity to areas with alternative feeding resources, the salinas. Areas subjected to strong human pressure were avoided by foraging Little Terns.  相似文献   

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Sightability models are binary logistic-regression models used to estimate and adjust for visibility bias in wildlife-population surveys. Like many models in wildlife and ecology, sightability models are typically developed from small observational datasets with many candidate predictors. Aggressive model-selection methods are often employed to choose a best model for prediction and effect estimation, despite evidence that such methods can lead to overfitting (i.e., selected models may describe random error or noise rather than true predictor–response curves) and poor predictive ability. We used moose (Alces alces) sightability data from northeastern Minnesota (2005–2007) as a case study to illustrate an alternative approach, which we refer to as degrees-of-freedom (df) spending: sample-size guidelines are used to determine an acceptable level of model complexity and then a pre-specified model is fit to the data and used for inference. For comparison, we also constructed sightability models using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) step-down procedures and model averaging (based on a small set of models developed using df-spending guidelines). We used bootstrap procedures to mimic the process of model fitting and prediction, and to compute an index of overfitting, expected predictive accuracy, and model-selection uncertainty. The index of overfitting increased 13% when the number of candidate predictors was increased from three to eight and a best model was selected using step-down procedures. Likewise, model-selection uncertainty increased when the number of candidate predictors increased. Model averaging (based on R = 30 models with 1–3 predictors) effectively shrunk regression coefficients toward zero and produced similar estimates of precision to our 3-df pre-specified model. As such, model averaging may help to guard against overfitting when too many predictors are considered (relative to available sample size). The set of candidate models will influence the extent to which coefficients are shrunk toward zero, which has implications for how one might apply model averaging to problems traditionally approached using variable-selection methods. We often recommend the df-spending approach in our consulting work because it is easy to implement and it naturally forces investigators to think carefully about their models and predictors. Nonetheless, similar concepts should apply whether one is fitting 1 model or using multi-model inference. For example, model-building decisions should consider the effective sample size, and potential predictors should be screened (without looking at their relationship to the response) for missing data, narrow distributions, collinearity, potentially overly influential observations, and measurement errors (e.g., via logical error checks). © 2011 The Wildlife Society.  相似文献   

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Abstract: We analyzed moose (Alces alces)-vehicle collisions (MVCs) in western Maine, USA, from 1992 to 2005 (n = 8,156) using Geographic Information Systems to identify patterns of temporal and spatial distribution and develop predictive models based on road and landscape characteristics. We used chi-square and correlation analyses to assess temporal characteristics of MVCs, K-function and kernel analyses to identify spatial clusters of MVCs, and logistic regression to relate covariates for traffic, land-cover, land-form, and relative moose abundance to probability of MVC. We evaluated candidate models using Akaike's Information Criterion, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and the percentage of correctly classified observations. Most (81.6%) MVCs occurred from May to October, with peak monthly frequencies in June (18.6%). Moose-vehicle collisions were clustered spatially on roads at local (0–4 km) and regional scales (22–41 km and 45–54 km), but not at intermediate scales. Traffic-related covariates predicting MVCs included traffic volume and speed limit. For each additional 500 vehicles/day, odds of a location being an MVC increased by 57%. For each 8-km/hr increase in speed limit, odds of an MVC increased by 35%. Landscape composition covariates best predicted MVCs within a 2.5-km radius of the collision site. Mean percent cover within 2.5 km of MVCs was comprised of 36% more cutover forest, 10% more coniferous forest, 5% less deciduous-mixed forest, and 10% less nonwoody wetland than for random points. For every 5% increase in percent cutover and coniferous forest within 2.5 km of the road, predicted odds of MVC increased by 36% and 19%, respectively. Landscape configuration covariates best predicted MVCs within the 5.0-km radius. Moose-vehicle collisions were associated with areas of less interspersion of cover types; for each 5% increase in an index of interspersion-juxtaposition, predicted odds of MVC decreased by 11%. Our final model attained high predictive power (AUC = 0.835) and validation accuracy (75.0%). The model also proved robust to physiographic variation, exhibiting high predictive power (AUC = 0.828) and validation accuracy (68.8%). Managers seeking to prioritize resources for reducing MVCs or predicting future areas of high MVC probability should assess land-cover composition and configuration surrounding MVC hotspots at geographic extents out to 2.5–5 km and use this information to plan expensive roadside management practices such as fencing. The importance of traffic and landscape covariates in our modeling suggests that effective management to reduce MVCs will require a complex combination of driving speed reductions and modifications to forest management along roads.  相似文献   

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Resource selection functions (RSFs) are typically estimated by comparing covariates at a discrete set of “used” locations to those from an “available” set of locations. This RSF approach treats the response as binary and does not account for intensity of use among habitat units where locations were recorded. Advances in global positioning system (GPS) technology allow animal location data to be collected at fine spatiotemporal scales and have increased the size and correlation of data used in RSF analyses. We suggest that a more contemporary approach to analyzing such data is to model intensity of use, which can be estimated for one or more animals by relating the relative frequency of locations in a set of sampling units to the habitat characteristics of those units with count‐based regression and, in particular, negative binomial (NB) regression. We demonstrate this NB RSF approach with location data collected from 10 GPS‐collared Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) in the Starkey Experimental Forest and Range enclosure. We discuss modeling assumptions and show how RSF estimation with NB regression can easily accommodate contemporary research needs, including: analysis of large GPS data sets, computational ease, accounting for among‐animal variation, and interpretation of model covariates. We recommend the NB approach because of its conceptual and computational simplicity, and the fact that estimates of intensity of use are unbiased in the face of temporally correlated animal location data.  相似文献   

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Abstract: Sodium has many fundamental physiological functions in animals but is rare in boreal ecosystems where moose (Alces alces) thrive. In Québec (Canada), sodium is readily available in aquatic vegetation and in salt pools that form along highways. We do not know if moose are adopting specific behaviors to access sodium sources or if they simply use the sodium sources they encounter during their movements. We tested the hypothesis that moose modify both space and habitat use to gather sodium from salt pools. We expected moose to use salt pools mostly in spring and early summer, when needs are greatest and before aquatic vegetation has fully developed. We fitted 47 moose with Global Positioning System telemetry collars and collected data for 2 to 36 months between 2003 and 2006. We rarely located moose at salt pools (0.12% among the 95,007 locations collected). As we expected, use of salt pools was highest in late spring and in early summer, and we observed a time lag between peak use of salt pools compared to use of lakes and waterways, indicating moose fulfilled their sodium requirements in salt pools before aquatic vegetation was available. Moose selected salt pools over lakes and waterways when these 2 sodium sources were present in their home range and moved rapidly over large distances to reach them. Our results were consistent with moose using salt pools when they are likely to be sodium deficient. Salt pools were less accessible, required long-distance movements, and were located in habitually avoided areas along highways. Elimination of roadside salt pools should be considered among strategies to reduce cervid-vehicle collision risks in boreal environments.  相似文献   

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Abstract Over the previous three decades, the rainbow lorikeet (Trichoglossus haematodus Family Psittacidae) has increased in urbanized areas of Australia. To help understand the nature of this increase, we investigated the influence of road density, tree cover and season on the occurrence of the rainbow lorikeet in the Melbourne region. Bayesian logistic regression was used to construct models to predict the occurrence of rainbow lorikeets, using Birds Australia atlas data at 207 2‐ha sites. The results demonstrate a strong relationship between tree cover and urbanization and the distribution of the species. The best model incorporated quadratic terms for road density and tree cover, and interaction terms, as well as season as a categorical variable. Probability of occurrence of rainbow lorikeets was highest at medium tree cover (40% to 70% of the site covered) and medium road density (9% to 12% of the surrounding area covered by roads). There was a close correspondence between the predictions of the model and new observations from bird surveys conducted at randomly selected field sites. The increased abundance of the species in urban areas has occurred despite a paucity of hollows that would act as suitable nesting sites, suggesting that only a small proportion of the population is breeding in these areas.  相似文献   

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