Demographic responses to climate change in a threatened Arctic species

The Arctic is undergoing rapid and accelerating change in response to global warming, altering biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem function across the region. For Arctic endemic species, our understanding of the consequences of such change remains limited. Spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri), a large Arctic sea duck, use remote regions in the Bering Sea, Arctic Russia, and Alaska throughout the annual cycle making it difficult to conduct comprehensive surveys or demographic studies. Listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, understanding the species response to climate change is critical for effective conservation policy and planning. Here, we developed an integrated population model to describe spectacled eider population dynamics using capture–mark–recapture, breeding population survey, nest survey, and environmental data collected between 1992 and 2014. Our intent was to estimate abundance, population growth, and demographic rates, and quantify how changes in the environment influenced population dynamics. Abundance of spectacled eiders breeding in western Alaska has increased since listing in 1993 and responded more strongly to annual variation in first‐year survival than adult survival or productivity. We found both adult survival and nest success were highest in years following intermediate sea ice conditions during the wintering period, and both demographic rates declined when sea ice conditions were above or below average. In recent years, sea ice extent has reached new record lows and has remained below average throughout the winter for multiple years in a row. Sea ice persistence is expected to further decline in the Bering Sea. Our results indicate spectacled eiders may be vulnerable to climate change and the increasingly variable sea ice conditions throughout their wintering range with potentially deleterious effects on population dynamics. Importantly, we identified that different demographic rates responded similarly to changes in sea ice conditions, emphasizing the need for integrated analyses to understand population dynamics.     

Population dynamics of king eiders breeding in northern Alaska

The North American population of king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) has declined by more than 50% since the late 1970s for unknown reasons. King eiders spend most of their lives in remote areas, forcing managers to make regulatory and conservation decisions based on very little information. We incorporated available published estimates of vital rates with new estimates to build a female, stage-based matrix population model for king eiders and examine the processes underlying population dynamics of king eiders breeding at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, on the coastal plain of northern Alaska and wintering around the Bering Sea (2001–2010). We predicted a decreasing population (λ = 0.981, 95% CI: 0.978–0.985), and that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival (sensitivity = 0.92). Low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity (variation in ducking survival accounted for 66% of retrospective variation in λ). Adult survival was high (0.94) and invariant ( = 0.0002, 95% CI: 0.0000–0.0007); however, catastrophic events could have a major impact and we need to consider how to mitigate and manage threats to adult survival. A hypothetical oil spill affecting breeding females in a primary spring staging area resulted in a severe population decline; although, transient population dynamics were relatively stable. However, if no catastrophic events occur, the more variable reproductive parameters (duckling and nest survival) may be more responsive to management actions. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Moult migration of emperor geese Chen canagica between Alaska and Russia

We studied reproductive success and post-breeding movements of 32 adult female emperor geese Chen canagica that were marked with satellite radio transmitters on their nesting area on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska 2000–2004. All 16 females that failed to successfully reproduce departed the YKD and moulted remiges either on the north coast of the Chukotka Peninsula, Russia (n=15), or on St. Lawrence Island, Alaska (n=1). Of 16 females that successfully nested, one migrated to Russia following hatch whereas the remainder stayed on the YKD. While moulting on the Chukotka Peninsula, emperor geese with satellite transmitters primarily used coastal lagoons west of Kolyuchin Bay. We observed 21,150 adult-plumaged emperor geese during aerial surveys in Chukotka in 2002. Most (95%) were in the same region used by geese that had been marked with satellite transmitters in Alaska. The number of emperor geese observed in Russia was comparable to our estimate of ≥20,000 adults that either do not nest or nest unsuccessfully each year on the YKD, suggesting that most nonproductive adults, or ≥28% of the adult population departs the YKD to moult elsewhere. The number of moult migrants may be substantially higher in years of poor reproductive success or if adult-plumaged birds that are not of breeding age also leave the YKD. Moult migration of emperor geese between Alaska and Russia is likely substantially greater than previously believed. Russian moulting habitats are important to the North American population of emperor geese and events that affect survival of geese in Russia could impact population trends on the YKD. Protection of coastal lagoons on the north coast of Chukotka is warranted.     

Small-scale spatial and temporal variation in the demographic processes underlying the large-scale decline of eiders in the Baltic Sea

The application of uniform conservation schemes often fails to account for small-scale spatial variation in the drivers of population decline. Demographic comparisons of imperilled populations across locations are therefore crucial for successful conservation, but progress is hampered by lack of long-term data from more than a single population. The recent large-scale decline of eider ducks (Somateria mollissima) in the Baltic Sea is ideal for determining to what extent mechanisms underlying population decline can be extrapolated over larger areas. We utilized stochastic demographic methods incorporating both environmental and sampling variation to assess small-scale spatial and temporal variation in the population dynamics of eiders at Söderskär (eastern range-margin) and Tvärminne (core breeding area), situated 130 km apart. The stochastic growth rate models accurately predicted the observed differences in the rate of decline between sites and time periods. At Söderskär, established breeder survival had by far the greatest elasticity, whereas elasticity was more evenly distributed among vital rates at Tvärminne. Although the study sites showed the single largest difference in fecundity, stochastic life table response experiment analyses revealed that reduced adult female survival at Tvärminne mainly determined the observed difference in growth rates between sites. In contrast, reduced fecundity primarily differentiated the past population increase from the present population decline at Söderskär. Our results demonstrate that different mechanisms may be associated with population decline across adjacent geographic locations, and indicate that dispersal of first-time breeders may be important for population dynamics. Safeguarding adult female survival and/or fecundity should be prioritized in management efforts.     

Philopatric predisposition to predation-induced ecological traps: habitat-dependent mortality of breeding eiders

Because population size is sensitive to changes in adult survival, adult survival may be buffered against environmental variability. Philopatry may be adaptive in changing environments, but it could also constrain breeding habitat selection under changing conditions such as shifting predation regimes. Habitat preference and quality could become decoupled in long-lived philopatric species that evolved in stable environments when suddenly faced by increased adult predation risk, as dispersal may be triggered by past reproductive failure. We evaluated whether the Baltic eider (Somateria m. mollissima) population may currently face a predation-induced ecological trap. Eiders are philopatric and nest on open and forested islands. We hypothesized that open-nesting females would be disproportionately affected by increased predation. We compared female annual survival in these two habitats in 1996–2010. We also tested for effects of time trends, winter severity (NAO), female body condition, and habitat-specific predation pressure on survival. Our results revealed the lowest survival recorded for this species (Φ?=?0.720), and survival on open islands was significantly lower (Φ?=?0.679) than on forested islands (Φ?=?0.761). Nonetheless, only 0.7?% of females changed breeding habitat type despite ample availability of alternative islands, and breeding phenology in both habitats was similar. Female survival increased with body condition, while it was unrelated to winter climate and stable over time. Open islands had a higher predation pressure on incubating females. Breeding philopatry results in a predator-mediated ecological trap for open-nesting eiders. Our results contribute to explaining the drastic decline of the Baltic eider population.     

North Atlantic climate variation influences survival in adult fulmars

There is increasing evidence that large scale climate variation influences reproductive parameters of seabirds, but fewer studies have investigated possible effects on adult survival. Previous work has shown that climate variation reflected by the winter North Atlantic oscillation (WNAO) influences reproductive success in northern fulmars. Here, we use a 34 year long (1962–1995) individual‐based data set to investigate inter‐annual and inter‐individual variation in adult survival in this species. Breeding success in the previous and current seasons, and both the WNAO and one‐year lagged WNAO indexes, were considered as potential sources of inter‐annual variation in survival and recapture probabilities. Sex and an index of body size were considered as potential sources of inter‐individual variation in survival and recapture probabilities. Body size effects were not significant, but males and females differed in both their survival and recapture probabilities. Probability of recapture of females was positively correlated with breeding success in both the current and previous breeding seasons, whereas male recapture probabilities were correlated only with previous breeding success. Male and female survival decreased over the study period, suggesting that there had been a degradation of environmental conditions. This hypothesis was supported by the detection of a negative correlation between survival and the WNAO, which, in turn, showed a positive increase over this period. The negative correlation between female adult survival and WNAO did not result only from the long term behaviour of the two time series, but persisted for higher frequency fluctuations. In contrast, the correlation between male survival and WNAO seemed to result only from the long term behaviour of the two time series. Despite uncertainties over causal mechanisms, these findings add to the body of evidence that large scale climate variation could dramatically affect seabird population dynamics. Furthermore our results suggest that climate variation can differentially influence individuals with distinct phenotypic characteristics.     

Breeding site fidelity of blue-winged teal in South Dakota

Assumptions about breeding site fidelity (i.e., fidelity) in blue-winged teal (Spatula discors) are based on limited recapture data and analytic techniques. We banded female blue-winged teal (n = 12,543) from 2003 to 2014 in a 3,800-ha sample area in north-central South Dakota, USA, and used a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach combining live recapture and dead recovery data to predict probabilities of fidelity, survival, recapture, and reporting. We explored sources of variation including time, annual wet area on the landscape, age, and nest survival, and compared our results to other dabbling ducks that nest in the Prairie Pothole Region, a critically important breeding area for waterfowl in central North America. We found annual estimates of fidelity ranging from 0.20 to 0.91, with mean values of 0.62 and 0.67 for hatch year birds and after hatch year birds, respectively. Our findings indicate that environmental factors may cause blue-winged teal to return to breeding sites more frequently than previously assumed. © The Wildlife Society, 2019     

Do common eiders nest in kin groups? Microgeographic genetic structure in a philopatric sea duck

We investigated local genetic associations among female Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v‐nigrum) nesting in a stochastic Arctic environment within two groups of barrier islands (Simpson Lagoon and Mikkelsen Bay) in the Beaufort Sea, Alaska. Nonrandom genetic associations were observed among nesting females using regional spatial autocorrelation analyses for distance classes up to 1000 m in Simpson Lagoon. Nearest‐neighbour analyses identified clusters of genetically related females with positive lr values observed for 0–13% and 0–7% of the comparisons in Simpson Lagoon and Mikkelsen Bay, respectively, across years. These results indicate that a proportion of females are nesting in close proximity to more genetically related individuals, albeit at low frequency. Such kin groupings may form through active association between relatives or through natal philopatry and breeding site fidelity. Eiders nest in close association with driftwood, which is redistributed annually by seasonal storms. Yet, genetic associations were still observed. Microgeographic structure may thus be more attributable to kin association than natal philopatry and site fidelity. However, habitat availability may also influence the level of structure observed. Regional structure was present only within Simpson Lagoon and this island group includes at least three islands with sufficient driftwood for colonies, whereas only one island at Mikkelsen Bay has these features. A long‐term demographic study is needed to understand more fully the mechanisms that lead to fine‐scale genetic structure observed in common eiders breeding in the Beaufort Sea.     

Breeding dispersal strategies following reproductive failure explain low apparent survival of immigrant Temminck's stints

In some animal populations, immigrants have lower survival than philopatric individuals. Costs of dispersal or low phenotypic quality of dispersers may explain the pattern. However, apparent adult survival estimates, which describe real survival combined with site fidelity cannot be separated from permanent emigration. Thus, heterogeneity in breeding dispersal propensities of immigrants and philopatrics can bias fitness correlates of dispersal. Differences in breeding dispersal propensities may be caused by different strategies in response to environmental cues inducing dispersal, such as reproductive success. In such cases, the reported differences between immigrants and philopatric individuals may not reflect true variation in survival. We studied whether dispersal status specific apparent adult survival is associated with reproductive success in a Temminck's stint Calidris temminckii population. We analysed two long term capture–recapture datasets characterised by low and high nest predation levels. Philopatric individuals had higher apparent adult survival than immigrants in both datasets and the difference was highlighted during the high nest predation period. By contrasting return rates between successful and unsuccessful breeders as a proxy for dispersal, we found that unsuccessful immigrants breeding for the first time dispersed more likely than successful immigrants, but such a pattern was not found among philopatric individuals. Our results support the hypothesis that immigrant and philopatric individuals have different breeding dispersal strategies following reproductive failure and that their apparent adult survival differences are at least partly explained by different breeding dispersal propensities. Our results also suggest that the recent decline of the study population reflects a multiple response to increased nest predation through decreased local recruitment and increased emigration.     

Limited genetic differentiation among breeding,molting, and wintering groups of the threatened Steller’s eider: the role of historic and contemporary factors

Due to declines in the Alaska breeding population, the Steller’s eider (Polysticta stelleri) was listed as threatened in North America in 1997. Periodic non-breeding in Russia and Alaska has hampered field-based assessments of behavioral patterns critical to recovery plans, such as levels of breeding site fidelity and movements among three regional populations: Atlantic-Russia, Pacific-Russia and Alaska. Therefore, we analyzed samples from across the species range with seven nuclear microsatellite DNA loci and cytochrome b mitochondrial (mt)DNA sequence data to infer levels of interchange among sampling areas and patterns of site fidelity. Results demonstrated low levels of population differentiation within Atlantic and Pacific nesting areas, with higher levels observed between these regions, but only for mtDNA. Bayesian analysis of microsatellite data from wintering and molting birds showed no signs of sub-population structure, even though band-recovery data suggests multiple breeding areas are present. We observed higher estimates of F-statistics for female mtDNA data versus male data, suggesting female-biased natal site fidelity. Summary statistics for mtDNA were consistent with models of historic population expansion. Lack of spatial structure in Steller’s eiders may result largely from insufficient time since historic population expansions for behaviors, such as natal site fidelity, to isolate breeding areas genetically. However, other behaviors such as the periodic non-breeding observed in Steller’s eiders may also play a more contemporary role in genetic homogeneity, especially for microsatellite loci.     

Annual survival in female white-winged scoters and lesser scaup

Quantifying survival and understanding underlying sources of variation are important for developing population models and informing management decisions. We estimated apparent survival (i.e., true survival less permanent emigration) for adult female white-winged scoters (Melanitta fusca) and lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) breeding at a northern boreal forest site in western Canada, 2002–2008. We also evaluated variation in survival relative to indices of breeding status, individual quality, spring weather conditions, local small-mammal abundance, and overwinter climate. Breeding female scoters had higher apparent survival than did nonbreeding females, suggesting that breeders had higher survival or fidelity to the study area, or that more nonbreeders were transient birds that may have bred elsewhere in subsequent years. Apparent survival rate for breeding female scoters was unrelated to other individual and environmental covariates. Nest-trapped female scaup had higher apparent survival rates than did prenesting females captured in decoy traps, implying that more pre-nesters dispersed permanently or died after marking. Nesting female scaup with higher body condition or those in years when small mammals were more abundant had higher apparent survival; associations between survival and other environmental covariates were less certain. Overall, apparent survival rate of breeding adult female scoters was lower than reported for scoters from other North American locations or for other sea duck species, whereas estimates for nesting female scaup were comparable with those from other boreal and prairie-parkland locations. Our results indicate that for scaup in this region, factors influencing female body condition, such as maintaining high-quality habitat, areas with abundant food or low disturbance, could improve annual survival. © The Wildlife Society, 2019     

Integrating broad‐scale data to assess demographic and climatic contributions to population change in a declining songbird

Climate variation and trends affect species distribution and abundance across large spatial extents. However, most studies that predict species response to climate are implemented at small spatial scales or are based on occurrence‐environment relationships that lack mechanistic detail. Here, we develop an integrated population model (IPM) for multi‐site count and capture‐recapture data for a declining migratory songbird, Wilson's warbler (Cardellina pusilla), in three genetically distinct breeding populations in western North America. We include climate covariates of vital rates, including spring temperatures on the breeding grounds, drought on the wintering range in northwest Mexico, and wind conditions during spring migration. Spring temperatures were positively related to productivity in Sierra Nevada and Pacific Northwest genetic groups, and annual changes in productivity were important predictors of changes in growth rate in these populations. Drought condition on the wintering grounds was a strong predictor of adult survival for coastal California and Sierra Nevada populations; however, adult survival played a relatively minor role in explaining annual variation in population change. A latent parameter representing a mixture of first‐year survival and immigration was the largest contributor to variation in population change; however, this parameter was estimated imprecisely, and its importance likely reflects, in part, differences in spatio‐temporal distribution of samples between count and capture‐recapture data sets. Our modeling approach represents a novel and flexible framework for linking broad‐scale multi‐site monitoring data sets. Our results highlight both the potential of the approach for extension to additional species and systems, as well as needs for additional data and/or model development.     

Evidence of Recent Population Recovery in Common Eiders Breeding in Western Greenland

ABSTRACT Severe population declines were reported for common eiders (Somateria mollissima) in western Greenland over the period 1960–2000. A monitoring program, concurrent with more restrictive hunting regulations on common eiders, revealed breeding numbers increasing by 212%, from 2,558 active nests in 2000 to 7,982 nests in 2007. Though it was not possible to directly link harvest reduction and population growth in West Greenland, a similar increase in breeding numbers in Canada was correlated with the harvest reduction in Greenland and linked to increasing adult survival and recruitment of first-time breeders, and a similar explanation is suggested for West Greenland. The study emphasizes that appropriate restrictions in hunting can be efficient in wildlife management and that common eiders can sustain dramatic rates of increase during population regrowth. It also shows that cost-efficient monitoring programs can be established through cooperation with local residents.     

Investigating life‐history traits of Steller sea lions with multistate hidden Markov mark–recapture models: Age at weaning and body size effects

The duration of offspring care is critical to female fitness and population resilience by allowing flexibility in life‐history strategies in a variable environment. Yet, for many mammals capable of extended periods of maternal care, estimates of the duration of offspring dependency are not available and the relative importance of flexibility of this trait on fitness and population viability has rarely been examined. We used data from 4,447 Steller sea lions Eumetopias jubatus from the Gulf of Alaska and multistate hidden Markov mark–recapture models to estimate age‐specific weaning probabilities. Maternal care beyond age 1 was common: Weaning was later for animals from Southeast Alaska (SEAK) and Prince William Sound (PWS, weaning probabilities: 0.536–0.648/0.784–0.873 by age 1/2) compared with animals born to the west (0.714–0.855/0.798–0.938). SEAK/PWS animals were also smaller than those born farther west, suggesting a possible link. Females weaned slightly earlier (+0.080 at age 1 and 2) compared with males in SEAK only. Poor survival for weaned versus unweaned yearlings occurred in southern SEAK (female survival probabilities: 0.609 vs. 0.792) and the central Gulf (0.667 vs. 0.901), suggesting poor conditions for juveniles in these areas. First‐year survival increased with neonatal body mass (NBM) linearly in the Gulf and nonlinearly in SEAK. The probability of weaning at age 1 increased linearly with NBM for SEAK animals only. Rookeries where juveniles weaned at earlier ages had lower adult female survival, but age at weaning was unrelated to population trends. Our results suggest the time to weaning may be optimized for different habitats based on long‐term average conditions (e.g., prey dynamics), that may also shape body size, with limited short‐term plasticity. An apparent trade‐off of adult survival in favor of juvenile survival and large offspring size in the endangered Gulf of Alaska population requires further study.     

Re‐colonization by common eiders Somateria mollissima in the Aleutian Archipelago following removal of introduced arctic foxes Vulpes lagopus

Islands provide refuges for populations of many species where they find safety from predators, but the introduction of predators frequently results in elimination or dramatic reductions in island‐dwelling organisms. When predators are removed, re‐colonization for some species occurs naturally, and inter‐island phylogeographic relationships and current movement patterns can illuminate processes of colonization. We studied a case of re‐colonization of common eiders Somateria mollissima following removal of introduced arctic foxes Vulpes lagopus in the Aleutian Archipelago, Alaska. We expected common eiders to resume nesting on islands cleared of foxes and to re‐colonize from nearby islets, islands, and island groups. We thus expected common eiders to show limited genetic structure indicative of extensive mixing among island populations. Satellite telemetry was used to record current movement patterns of female common eiders from six islands across three island groups. We collected genetic data from these and other nesting common eiders at 14 microsatellite loci and the mitochondrial DNA control region to examine population genetic structure, historical fluctuations in population demography, and gene flow. Our results suggest recent interchange among islands. Analysis of microsatellite data supports satellite telemetry data of increased dispersal of common eiders to nearby areas and little between island groups. Although evidence from mtDNA is suggestive of female dispersal among island groups, gene flow is insufficient to account for recolonization and rapid population growth. Instead, near‐by remnant populations of common eiders contributed substantially to population expansion, without which re‐colonization would have likely occurred at a much lower rate. Genetic and morphometric data of common eiders within one island group two and three decades after re‐colonization suggests reduced movement of eiders among islands and little movement between island groups after populations were re‐established. We predict that re‐colonization of an island group where all common eiders are extirpated could take decades.     

Winter Distribution,Movements, and Annual Survival of Radiomarked Vancouver Canada Geese in Southeast Alaska

ABSTRACT Management of Pacific Flyway Canada geese (Branta canadensis) requires information on winter distribution of different populations. Recoveries of tarsus bands from Vancouver Canada geese (B. canadensis fulva) marked in southeast Alaska, USA, ≥4 decades ago suggested that ≥83% of the population was non-migratory and that annual adult survival was high (Ŝ = 0.836). However, recovery distribution of tarsus bands was potentially biased due to geographic differences in harvest intensity in the Pacific Flyway. Also, winter distribution of Vancouver Canada geese could have shifted since the 1960s, as has occurred for some other populations of Canada geese. Because winter distribution and annual survival of this population had not recently been evaluated, we surgically implanted very high frequency radiotransmitters in 166 adult female Canada geese in southeast Alaska. We captured Vancouver Canada geese during molt at 2 sites where adults with goslings were present (breeding areas) and 2 sites where we observed nonbreeding birds only. During winter radiotracking flights in southeast Alaska, we detected 98% of 85 females marked at breeding areas and 83% of 70 females marked at nonbreeding sites, excluding 11 females that died prior to the onset of winter radiotracking. We detected no radiomarked females in coastal British Columbia, or western Washington and Oregon, USA. Most (70%) females moved ≤30 km between November and March. Our model-averaged estimate of annual survival (Ŝ = 0.844, SE = 0.050) was similar to the estimate of annual survival of geese marked from 1956 to 1960. Likely <2% of Vancouver Canada geese that nest in southeast Alaska migrate to winter areas in Oregon or Washington where they could intermix with Canada geese from other populations in the Pacific Flyway. Because annual survival of adult Vancouver Canada geese was high and showed evidence of long-term consistency, managers should examine how reproductive success and recruitment may affect the population.     

Life history patterns,individual heterogeneity,and density dependence in breeding common goldeneyes of the northern boreal forest

Life history patterns and their associated tradeoffs influence population dynamics, as they determine how individuals allocate resources among competing demographic traits. Here we examined life history strategies in common goldeneyes Bucephala clangula (hereafter goldeneye), a cavity‐nesting sea duck, in the northern boreal forest of interior Alaska, USA. We used multistate capture–mark–recapture models to estimate adult survival, breeding probability, first‐year survival, and recruitment probability using a long‐term nest box study (1997–2010). We detected annual variation in adult survival, which varied from 0.74 ± 0.12 (SE) to 0.93 ± 0.06. In contrast, breeding probability remained relatively high and invariant (0.84 ± 0.11) and was positively related to individual nest success the year prior. Nonbreeding individuals in one year were more likely to remain a nonbreeder, than attempt to breed the following year. First‐year survival decreased with smaller residual duckling mass and larger brood sizes. Probability of recruitment into the breeding population conditioned on survival was constant during the study (0.96 ± 0.06), and did not vary among ages 2–5 yr‐old. Overall, goldeneyes exhibited high, but somewhat variable, adult survival, and high breeding and recruitment probabilities, which is consistent with observed patterns in bet‐hedging species that breed annually in high quality breeding environments, but whose reproductive output is often influenced by stochastic events. Demographic estimates from this study are among the first for goldeneyes within Alaska. Life history patterns are known to vary geographically, therefore, we recommend further examination of life history patterns within the distribution of goldeneyes.     

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long‐lived amphibian

Weather fluctuations have been demonstrated to affect demographic traits in many species. In long‐lived organisms, their impact on adult survival might be buffered by the evolution of traits that reduce variation in interannual adult survival. For example, skipping breeding is an effective behavioral mechanism that may limit yearly variation in adult survival when harsh weather conditions occur; however, this in turn would likely lead to strong variation in recruitment. Yet, only a few studies to date have examined the impact of weather variation on survival, recruitment and breeding probability simultaneously in different populations of the same species. To fill this gap, we studied the impact of spring temperatures and spring rainfall on survival, on reproductive skipping behavior and on recruitment in five populations of a long‐lived amphibian, the yellow‐bellied toad (Bombina variegata). Based on capture–recapture data, our findings demonstrate that survival depends on interactions between age, population and weather variation. Varying weather conditions in the spring result in strong variation in the survival of immature toads, whereas they have little effect on adult toads. Breeding probability depends on both the individual's previous reproductive status and on the weather conditions during the current breeding season, leading to high interannual variation in recruitment. Crucially, we found that the impact of weather variation on demographic traits is largely context dependent and may thus differ sharply between populations. Our results suggest that studies predicting the impact of climate change on population dynamics should be taken with caution when the relationship between climate and demographic traits is established using only one population or few populations. We therefore highly recommend further research that includes surveys replicated in a substantial number of populations to account for context‐dependent variation in demographic processes.     

Survival and Breeding Transitions for a Reintroduced Bison Population: a Multistate Approach

Abstract: The iconic plains bison (Bison bison) have been reintroduced to many places in their former range, but there are few scientific data evaluating the success of these reintroductions or guiding the continued management of these populations. Relying on mark-recapture data, we used a multistate model to estimate bison survival and breeding transition probabilities while controlling for the recapture process. We tested hypotheses in these demographic parameters associated with age, sex, reproductive state, and environmental variables. We also estimated biological process variation in survival and breeding transition probabilities by factoring out sampling variation. The recapture rate of females and calves was high (0.78 ± 0.15 [SE]) and much lower for males (0.41 ± 0.23), especially older males (0.17 ± 0.15). We found that overall bison survival was high (>0.8) and that males (0.80 ± 0.13) survived at lower rates than females (0.94 ± 0.04), but as females aged survival declined (0.89 ± 0.05 for F ≥15 yr old). Lactating and non-lactating females survived at similar rates. We found that females can conceive early (approx. 1.5 yr of age) and had a high probability (approx. 0.8) of breeding in consecutive years, until age 13.5 years, when females that were non-lactating tended to stay in that state. Our results suggest senescence in reproduction and survival for females. We found little support for the effect of climatic covariates on demographic rates, perhaps because the park's current population management goals were predicated from drought-year conditions. This reintroduction has been successful, but continued culling actions will need to be employed and an adaptive management approach is warranted. Our demographic approach can be applied to other heavily managed large-ungulate systems with few or no natural predators.     

Effects of implanted satellite transmitters on behavior and survival of female common eiders

Surgically implanted satellite transmitters have been widely used in studies of avian ecology, yet little is known about their potential impacts on birds. We implanted satellite transmitters with percutaneous antennae (approx. 50 g) in 17 female common eiders (Somateria mollissima) at a breeding colony in Arctic Canada. Among females implanted during incubation, 11 of 12 nests were abandoned within 1 week of being radioed. We observed no differences in the proportion of time that implanted female eiders allocated to basic behaviors. Radioed birds were more likely to pick or preen their abdominal (site of surgical incision) and posterior–dorsal (site of antenna exit) regions than unmarked females, although these behaviors were rare (approx. 0.3% of total time budget). Three of 10 females re-observed had a pronounced limp following surgery, but we observed no walking difficulties among these females in subsequent seasons, and we observed some implanted eiders nesting in subsequent years. Mark–resighting models suggest eiders with transmitters had lower apparent survival the year after implantation (67.0%; 85% CI: 47.8–81.9%) than did color-banded eiders (87.5%, 85% CI: 82.5–91.2%), but there was no model support for a survival difference in subsequent years. We conclude that transmitter implantation in common eiders leads to short-term changes in behavior and a decline in first year survival. We encourage researchers to collect similar data on their study subjects where possible and use it to determine the degree to which data are representative of the greater population. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.