Black Brant Harvest,Density Dependence,and Survival: A Record of Population Dynamics

ABSTRACT We analyzed 53 years of banding and band recovery data along with estimates of harvest and population size to assess the role of harvest and density dependence in survival patterns and population dynamics of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) over the period 1950–2003. The black brant population has declined steadily since complete annual surveys began in 1960, so the role of harvest in the dynamics of this population is of considerable interest. We used Brownie models implemented in Program MARK to analyze banding data. In some models, we incorporated estimated sport harvest to test hypotheses about the role of harvest in survival. We also examined the hypothesis of density-dependent regulation of mortality by incorporating estimates of population size as a covariate into models of survival. For a shorter period (1985–2003), we also assessed hypotheses about the role of subsistence harvest and predation as sources of mortality. The best supported model of variation in survival and band recovery allowed survival rates to vary among 2 age classes (juv, second-yr plus ad brant) and the 2 sexes. We constrained survival probabilities to be constant within decades but allowed them to vary among decades. We also constrained band recovery rates to be constant within decades and to vary in parallel among age and sex classes. We were limited to decade-specific estimates of survival and band recovery rates because some years before 1984 lacked any banding, and banding in some other years was sparse. A competitive model constrained survival estimates to be the same for males and females. No model containing harvest or population size was competitive with models lacking these covariates (relative quasi-Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size [βQAIC_c] > 13). In the best supported model, band recovery rates declined from 0.038 ± 0.0028 (F) and 0.040 ± 0.0031 (M) to 0.007 ± 0.0007 (F) and 0.007 ± 0.0007 (M) between the 1950s and 2000s, a clear indication that harvest rates declined over this period. Survival rates increased from 0.70 ± 0.02 and 0.71 ± 0.02 for adult males and females, respectively, in the 1950s to 0.88 ± 0.009 and 0.88 ± 0.01 for males and females, respectively, in the 1990s. Survival rates in the 1990s were among the highest estimated for brant and did not increase in the 2000s with additional reductions in sport harvest. For the shorter data set from 1985 to 2003, models containing covariates for either sport or subsistence harvest were less competitive than models lacking these terms (βQAIC_c > 3). For the best model containing subsistence harvest, the estimate of β linking subsistence harvest to survival, although imprecisely estimated, was near zero (β = −0.04 ± 0.30), consistent with the hypothesis that subsistence harvest had little impact on survival during this period. We conclude that while harvest likely influenced survival and population dynamics in earlier decades, it is most likely that continued population decline at least since 1990 is a result of low recruitment.     

Estimating Numbers of Black Brant Using Sequential Spring-Staging Sites

Abstract: Estimating total number of birds using a particular staging site during migration is challenging because counts alone do not account for turnover in the local population. Robust statistical methods are needed to more fully assess the conservation value of such sites. We used the multi-strata model in Program MARK to estimate time-dependent transition probabilities between sequential staging sites to estimate lengths of stay for spring-staging Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) on the Fraser River delta and Parksville-Qualicum areas in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada. Using resightings of marked individuals in combination with ground counts, we estimated the total number of brant, with associated uncertainties, staging at these sites during the spring migrations of 1999 and 2000. We estimated between 28,927 and 33,181 individual brant transited the Fraser River delta and Parksville-Qualicum sites in 1999 and between 21,621 and 25,405 individuals in 2000. These totals correspond to approximately 18–26% of the entire Pacific Flyway brant population, suggesting the need for continued conservation and management efforts at these sites. Given the importance of staging sites to migratory populations, we believe this method could be applied to other species and locations.     

Latitudinal variation in population structure of wintering Pacific Black Brant

ABSTRACT.   Latitudinal variation in population structure during the winter has been reported in many migratory birds, but has been documented in few species of waterfowl. Variation in environmental and social conditions at wintering sites can potentially influence the population dynamics of differential migrants. We examined latitudinal variation in sex and age classes of wintering Pacific Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ). Brant are distributed along a wide latitudinal gradient from Alaska to Mexico during the winter. Accordingly, migration distances for brant using different wintering locations are highly variable and winter settlement patterns are likely associated with a spatially variable food resource. We used resightings of brant banded in southwestern Alaska to examine sex and age ratios of birds wintering at Boundary Bay in British Columbia, and at San Quintin Bay, Ojo de Liebre Lagoon, and San Ignacio Lagoon in Baja California from 1998 to 2000. Sex ratios were similar among wintering locations for adults and were consistent with the mating strategy of geese. The distribution of juveniles varied among wintering areas, with greater proportions of juveniles observed at northern (San Quintin Bay and Ojo de Liebre Lagoon) than at southern (San Ignacio Lagoon) locations in Baja California. We suggest that age-related variation in the winter distribution of Pacific Black Brant is mediated by variation in productivity among individuals at different wintering locations and by social interactions among wintering family groups.     

An Integrated Population Model for Harvest Management of Atlantic Brant

Atlantic brant (Branta bernicla hrota) are important game birds in the Atlantic Flyway and several long-term monitoring data sets could assist with harvest management, including a count-based survey and demographic data. Considering their relative strengths and weaknesses, integrated analysis to these data would likely improve harvest management, but tools for integration have not yet been developed. Managers currently use an aerial count survey on the wintering grounds, the mid-winter survey, to set harvest regulations. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) for Atlantic brant that uses multiple data sources to simultaneously estimate population abundance, survival, and productivity. The IPM abundance estimates for data from 1975–2018 were less variable than annual mid-winter survey counts or Lincoln estimates, presumably reflecting better accounting for observer error and incorporation of demographic estimates by the IPM. Posterior estimates of adult survival were high (0.77–0.87), and harvest rates of adults and juveniles were positively correlated with more liberal hunting regulations (i.e., hunting days and the daily bag limit). Productivity was variable, with the percent of juveniles in the winter population ranging from 1% to >40%. We found no evidence for environmental relationships with productivity. Using IPM-predicted population abundances rather than mid-winter survey counts alone would have meant fewer annual changes to hunting regulations since 2004. Use of the IPM could improve harvest management for Atlantic brant by providing the ability to predict abundance before annual hunting regulations are set, and by providing more stable hunting regulations, with fewer annual changes. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

A Theoretical Model of the Winter Survival Dynamics of Meloidogyne spp. Eggs and Juveniles

A theoretical model of the winter survival dynamics of Meloidagyne spp. was developed by considering the roles of egg hatching and juvenile mortality and the initial populations of eggs and juveniles at the onset of winter. Two distinct patterns of juvenile dynamics appear which depend upon the numerical values of the model parameters. The model predicts whether eggs or juveniles are the major component of overwintering nematode populations at any time prior to planting. The model could be elaborated to include egg viability and differential mortality of eggs but at some cost in ease of mathematical analysis. A general procedure for fitting the proposed model to experimental or observational data is outlined.     

播种密度对秸秆覆盖旱地冬小麦产量和土壤水分的影响

为了解秸秆覆盖下作物群体对土壤水分和小麦产量的影响,于2012年6月至2013年6月在渭北旱塬研究秸秆覆盖与常规耕作模式下播种密度对土壤储水量、冬小麦群体动态变化、小麦产量及水分利用效率的影响。秸秆覆盖与常规耕作相比休闲期在0~3.6 m土层多蓄水105 mm,主要于小麦拔节后利用。不同播种密度主要影响小麦抽穗前的群体大小,抽穗后群体差异不显著。小麦籽粒产量为2 841~3 496 kg/hm, 不同密度水平或覆盖均没有显著影响小麦产量,但是高密度处理较中、低密度显著降低小麦收获指数。另外,秸秆覆盖小麦较常规增加20%耗水量,小麦水分利用效率降低11%。因此,在休闲期降雨丰富,生育期特旱的气候条件下播种密度对秸秆覆盖小麦产量没有影响,显著增加耗水量,降低水分利用效率。播种密度、秸秆覆盖及其交互效应还有待于在其他气候年型下进一步研究观测以便综合评价这些因素的影响效应,进而建立旱地小麦高产高效用水的管理措施。     

Dynamics of Winter Survival of Eggs and Juveniles of Meloidogyne incognita and M. arenaria

Winter survival dynamics of Meloidogyne incognita and M. arenaria were studied at nine sites in Texas for 2 years. Population survival from October until April was variable among sites, ranging from 0.1% to 33%. A negative correlation (r = -0.86, P = 0.01) was observed between initial population, densities in October and survival percentage until the following April. Total population (eggs + J2) and population of eggs declined continuously during the survival period. Populations of juveniles (J2) increased initially, then declined. The total populations were 82% eggs in October; hatch of these eggs was believed responsible for the observed increase in the population density of J2. Viable eggs were recovered from the soil until March. Eggs are as important as J2 in winter survival of M. incognita and M. arenaria in Texas. Survival data were analyzed by a simple mathematical model.     

North American Brant: effects of changes in habitat and climate on population dynamics

We describe the importance of key habitats used by four nesting populations of nearctic brant (Branta bernicla) and discuss the potential relationship between changes in these habitats and population dynamics of brant. Nearctic brant, in contrast to most geese, rely on marine habitats and native intertidal plants during the non‐breeding season, particularly the seagrass, Zostera, and the macroalgae, Ulva. Atlantic and Eastern High Arctic brant have experienced the greatest degradation of their winter habitats (northeastern United States and Ireland, respectively) and have also shown the most plasticity in feeding behavior. Black and Western High Arctic brant of the Pacific Flyway are the most dependent on Zostera, and are undergoing a shift in winter distribution that is likely related to climate change and its associated effects on Zostera dynamics. Variation in breeding propensity of Black Brant associated with winter location and climate strongly suggests that food abundance on the wintering grounds directly affects reproductive performance in these geese. In summer, salt marshes, especially those containing Carex and Puccinellia, are key habitats for raising young, while lake shorelines with fine freshwater grasses and sedges are important for molting birds. Availability and abundance of salt marshes has a direct effect on growth and recruitment of goslings and ultimately, plays an important role in regulating size of local brant populations.     

Fire Management Effects on Long-Term Gopher Tortoise Population Dynamics

Long-term datasets are required to understand the response of long-lived organisms (e.g., gopher tortoises [Gopherus polyphemus]) to management actions, such as prescribed burns. Our objective was to estimate the effects of prescribed burning on gopher tortoise population dynamics over decadal time frames at Fort Stewart Army Reserve, southeastern Georgia, USA. We captured and marked adult tortoises from 1994–2020. In addition, since the early 1990s, managers at Fort Stewart collected spatial records of prescribed burns; thus, we could compare demography of the population to prescribed burning. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model (open population Jolly-Seber model) to estimate population parameters (emigration and survival, immigration and recruitment, and adult abundance) and their relationships with years since burn. We observed opposing responses to years since burn at 2 sites: abundance and the probability of staying (survival plus not emigrating) increased within 1 site when it had been more recently burned (F zones), but abundance and probability of staying in a second site increased when it had been longer since the site was burned (E zones). Some of these effects were weak but indicative of different responses to burning between the sites. Although the sites experienced similar burning regimes, they differed substantially in other habitat features: the F zones had almost twice the tree cover and lower soil sand composition, indicating that tortoise population responses to burning depend on habitat context. We inferred that the primary mechanism for demographic responses to years since burn was likely emigrating adults, which indicates the need for more detailed movement data. Our results demonstrate that gopher tortoise population responses to prescribed burning are complex, context dependent, and primarily influenced by tortoise movements. Therefore, prescribed burn plans may best accommodate spatially dynamic tortoise populations when they create spatial heterogeneity in burn ages within the range of typical tortoise movements. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Growth of Greater White-Fronted Goose Goslings Relates to Population Dynamics at Multiple Scales

The abundance of greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons frontalis) on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska, USA, has more than tripled since the late 1990s; however, recent rate of annual population growth has declined as population size increased, which may indicate white-fronted geese on the ACP are approaching carrying capacity. We examined rates of gosling growth in greater white-fronted geese at 3 sites on the ACP during 2012–2014 to assist with predictions of future population trends and assess evidence for density-dependent constraints on recruitment. We marked goslings at hatch with individually coded webtags and conducted brood drives during early August to capture, measure, and weigh goslings. Annual estimates of gosling mass at 32 days old (range = 1,190–1,685) indicate that goslings had obtained >60% of asymptotic size. This rate of growth corresponds with that of other goose species and populations with access to high-quality forage and no limitations on forage availability, and is consistent with the overall increase in abundance of white-fronted geese at the ACP scale. Contrary to most previous investigations, age-adjusted mass of goslings did not decline with hatch date. Goslings grew faster in coastal areas than at inland freshwater sites. Taken together, these findings suggest forage was not limiting gosling growth rates in either ecosystem, but forage was of greater quality in coastal areas where goose foraging habitat is expanding because of permafrost subsidence. Spatial patterns of gosling growth corresponded with local-scale patterns of population density and population change; the areas with greatest rates of gosling growth were those with the greatest population density and rates of population increase. We found little evidence to suggest forage during brood rearing was limiting population increase of white-fronted geese on the ACP. Factors responsible for the apparent slowing of ACP-wide population growth are likely those that occur in stages of the annual cycle outside of the breeding grounds. Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

松突圆蚧种群动态研究

对松突圆蚧为害时间不同的两个调查区的松突圆蚧种群动态进行调查,建立了相应的数学模型．对松突圆蚧种群的全年种群波动规律运用带时滞效应的Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ模型进行拟合,通过内禀增长率ｒ和时滞τ的拟合值对种群出现的周期性波动作出解释．     

Dynamics of an oligosporous actinomycete population in chernozem soil

Investigation of the dynamics of an oligosporous actinomycete population in chernozem soil in the course of succession induced by soil wetting allowed us to reveal the time intervals and conditions optimal for the isolation of particular oligosporous actinomycetes. Saccharopolysporas and microbisporas proved to be best isolated in the early and late stages of succession, whereas actinomycetes of the subgroupActinomadura and saccharomonosporas could be best isolated in the early and intermediate stages of succession     

Changes in behavior are unable to disrupt a trophic cascade involving a specialist herbivore and its food plant

Changes in ecological conditions can induce changes in behavior and demography of wild organisms, which in turn may influence population dynamics. Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) nesting in colonies on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in western Alaska have declined substantially (~50%) since the turn of the century. Black brant are herbivores that rely heavily on Carex subspathacea (Hoppner's sedge) during growth and development. The availability of C. subspathacea affects gosling growth rates, which subsequently affect pre‐ and postfledging survival, as well as size and breeding probability as an adult. We predicted that long‐term declines in C. subspathacea have affected gosling growth rates, despite the potential of behavior to buffer changes in food availability during brood rearing. We used Bayesian hierarchical mixed‐effects models to examine long‐term (1987–2015) shifts in brant behavior during brood rearing, forage availability, and gosling growth rates at the Tutakoke River colony. We showed that locomotion behaviors have increased (β = 0.05, 95% CRI: 0.032–0.068) while resting behaviors have decreased (β = ?0.024, 95% CRI: ?0.041 to ?0.007), potentially in response to long‐term shifts in forage availability and brood density. Concurrently, gosling growth rates have decreased substantially (β = ?0.100, 95% CRI: ?0.191 to ?0.016) despite shifts in behavior, mirroring long‐term declines in the abundance of C. subspathacea (β = ?0.191, 95% CRI: ?0.355 to ?0.032). These results have important implications for individual fitness and population viability, where shifts in gosling behavior putatively fail to mitigate long‐term declines in forage availability.     

Do hunters target auxiliary markers? An example using black brant

Auxiliary markers play an essential role in understanding migration, movement, demography, and behavior of migratory birds. Use of such markers relies on the assumption that the markers do not affect the traits of interest. Neck collars, among the most conspicuous of markers, substantially affect risk of harvest, and survival even in the absence of harvest. Effects of less-conspicuous markers, such as colored plastic tarsal bands, are not well understood. We used 30 years (1986–2015) of banding, recovery, and recapture data from the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in Alaska, USA, to assess differences in direct band recovery rates (DRRs) between black plastic and brightly colored plastic bands applied to black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). We also assessed the effect of the color of plastic tarsal bands on annual survival, risks of natural mortality harvest, and fidelity to the breeding colony of adult female black brant. When assessing only DRRs we found that brightly colored bands were recovered at higher rates than black plastic bands in the early 2000s, but DRRs for black bands increased more rapidly through time, resulting in similar DRRs for the 2 band colors at the end of the study. Using a Burnham model structure, our results demonstrated that individuals fitted with colored bands had slightly lower hazards of dying from natural causes or hunting than individuals carrying less-conspicuous black tarsal bands. Differences on annual probability scales were small and credible intervals broadly overlapped between band types, indicating minimal differences between individuals with different band types; however, we could not resolve all confounding in our study design and we suggest that specific studies directed at assessing marker effects are warranted. We encourage education of hunters about their roles as citizen scientists and the potentially detrimental effect of targeting birds with auxiliary markers.     

Population Dynamics of Breeding Mallards in the Great Lakes States

Abstract: Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations in the United States portion of the Great Lakes region increased through the 1990s but have since declined. To promote sustainable growth of this population, managers need to understand how perturbation of vital rates will affect annual population growth rate (Λ). We developed a stage-based model representing the female mallard population in the Great Lakes using vital rates generated from a landscape-level study documenting reproductive parameters from 2001 to 2003. We conducted perturbation analyses (i.e., sensitivity analyses) to identify vital rates that most influence Λ and variance decomposition analyses to determine the proportion of variation in Λ explained by variation in each vital rate. Perturbation analyses indicated that Λ was most sensitive to changes in nonbreeding survival, duckling survival, and nest success. Therefore, changes in these vital rates would be expected to result in the greatest ΔΛ. Process variation in breeding season parameters accounted for 63% of variation in Λ. Breeding season parameters explaining the most variation were duckling survival (32%) and nest success (16%). Survival of adult females outside the breeding season accounted for 36% of variation in Λ. Harvest derivation, high harvest, and high sensitivity of Λ to nonbreeding survival for Great Lakes female mallards suggests there is a strong potential for managing the Great Lakes mallard population via harvest management. Because Λ was highly sensitive to changes in duckling survival, we suggest programs that emphasize wetland protection, enhancement, and restoration as a management strategy to improve population growth for breeding mallards.     

Mathematical Model for Rhythmic Protoplasmic Movement in the True Slime Mold

The plasmodium of the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum is a large amoeboid organism that displays “smart” behavior such as chemotaxis and the ability to solve mazes and geometrical puzzles. These amoeboid behaviors are based on the dynamics of the viscoelastic protoplasm and its biochemical rhythms. By incorporating both these aspects, we constructed a mathematical model for the dynamics of the organism as a first step towards understanding the relation between protoplasmic movement and its unusual abilities. We tested the validity of the model by comparing it with physiological observation. Our model reproduces fundamental characteristics of the spatio-temporal pattern of the rhythmic movement: (1) the antiphase oscillation between frontal tip and rear when the front is freely extending; (2) the asynchronous oscillation pattern when the front is not freely extending; and (3) the formation of protoplasmic mounds over a longer time scale. Both our model and physiological observation suggest that cell stiffness plays a primary role in plasmodial behaviors, in contrast to the conventional theory of coupled oscillator systems.     

石河子地区不同生境梭梭种群数量动态分析

对新疆石河子莫索湾地区阳坡、阴坡、坡脊、坡谷4个生境条件下的梭梭种群动态、大小结构等进行了实地调查研究,并编制静态生命表分析存活曲线和死亡曲线.结果表明,石河子地区的梭梭种群基本属于进展型或稳定型,幼龄个体多,中老龄个体少.不同生境的种群密度存在差异,其中坡谷种群密度最大;不同坡向种群生命表显示,种群在Ⅰ、Ⅱ径级时死亡率较高,随着年龄增加,死亡率逐渐降低,Ⅴ、Ⅵ径级由于生理衰老死亡率上升;种群期望寿命在Ⅰ、Ⅱ径级较高,随着年龄增加,期望寿命逐渐下降;不同坡向的梭梭种群的存活曲线均接近于DeeveyⅢ型.在石河子莫索湾地区,梭梭种群应以保护为主,适当抚育为辅,从而促进群落持续发育.     

棉蚜在棉株上数量动态的初步研究

棉蚜(Aphis gossypii)是棉花苗期至花铃前期的主要害虫之一。长期以来,由于大量使用化学药物,其抗药性不断增加。为了掌握棉蚜种群数量消长的一般规律,给寻找其他有效的防治方法提供依据,本文对棉蚜实验种群的数量动态与其宿主棉株的关系进行了初步探讨。现将结果报道如下。     

福建厦门市菩提皮粉虱种群消长研究

调查表明,厦门菩提皮粉虱若虫发生高峰期分别在8月上旬（8月1日）、8月下旬（8月29日）、9月下旬（9月28日）和11月中旬（11月12日）,卵的高峰期出现在7月下旬（7月26日）、8月下旬（8月29日）、9月下旬（9月28日）和10月下旬（10月31日）。在厦门一年可发生5代,其中第四代虫口数量达到全年高峰,菩提皮粉虱12月中旬开始越冬。