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1.
The origin and geographic distribution of syphilis, a form of treponemal infection, have long been regarded as among the most important medical riddles of prehistoric and historic disease evolution. In this study, we expand on previous discussions of the origin, evolution, and relationship of treponemal infections as they occur in the prehistoric southeastern United States. Individuals from 25 skeletal series (n = 2,410 individuals) were examined for cranial and dental lesions characteristic of treponemal infection. They lived between the Archaic period (8000-1000 BC) and protohistoric period (AD 1500-1600), and in physiographic zones from the coast to the mountains of Alabama, Florida, North Carolina, and Tennessee. Radial cranial scars were found for 47 individuals, but none of the four cases of dental lesions could be attributed to congenital syphilis. Differences in frequency of cranial lesions by region were minimal, with the least number of cases found for the mountains, but the frequency of positive cases tended to increase through time. It is suggested that increasing population density and changing behaviors, rather than novel strains of the treponemal pathogen, are responsible for the chronological increase in the frequency of positive cases. 相似文献
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Selecting a sampling design to monitor multiple species across a broad geographical region can be a daunting task and often involves tradeoffs between limited resources and the accurate estimation of population abundance and occurrence. Since the 1950s, biological atlases have been implemented in various regions to document the occurrence of plant and animal species. As next‐generation atlases repeat original surveys, investigators often seek to raise the rigour of atlases by incorporating species abundances. We present a repeatable framework that incorporates existing monitoring data, hierarchical modelling and sampling simulations to augment existing atlas occurrence and breeding status maps with a secondary sampling of species abundances. Using existing information on three bird species with varying abundance and detectability, we evaluated several sampling scenarios for the 2nd Wisconsin Breeding Bird Atlas. In general, we found that most sampling schemes produced accurate mean statewide abundance estimates for species with medium to high abundance and detection probability, but estimates varied significantly for species with low abundance and low detection probability. Our approach provided a statewide point‐count sampling design that: provided precise and unbiased abundance estimates for species of varied prevalence and detectability; ensured suitable spatial coverage across the state and its habitats; and reduced spending on total survey costs. Our framework could benefit investigators conducting atlases and other broad‐scale avian surveys that seek to add systematic, multi‐species sampling for estimating density and abundance across broad geographical regions. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT. Recent advances in the methods used to estimate detection probability during point counts suggest that the detection process is shaped by the types of cues available to observers. For example, models of the detection process based on distance-sampling or time-of-detection methods may yield different results for auditory versus visual cues because of differences in the factors that affect the transmission of these cues from a bird to an observer or differences in an observer's ability to localize cues. Previous studies suggest that auditory detections predominate in forested habitats, but it is not clear how often observers hear birds prior to detecting them visually. We hypothesized that auditory cues might be even more important than previously reported, so we conducted an experiment in a forested habitat in North Carolina that allowed us to better separate auditory and visual detections. Three teams of three observers each performed simultaneous 3-min unlimited-radius point counts at 30 points in a mixed-hardwood forest. One team member could see, but not hear birds, one could hear, but not see, and the third was nonhandicapped. Of the total number of birds detected, 2.9% were detected by deafened observers, 75.1% by blinded observers, and 78.2% by nonhandicapped observers. Detections by blinded and nonhandicapped observers were the same only 54% of the time. Our results suggest that the detection of birds in forest habitats is almost entirely by auditory cues. Because many factors affect the probability that observers will detect auditory cues, the accuracy and precision of avian point count estimates are likely lower than assumed by most field ornithologists. 相似文献
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JASON D. RIDDLE CHRISTOPHER E. MOORMAN KENNETH H. POLLOCK 《The Journal of wildlife management》2008,72(6):1437-1442
Abstract: We compared the time-of-detection and logistic regression methods of estimating probability of detection for northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) coveys. Both methods are unusual in that they allow estimation of the total probability of detection (i.e., the product of the probability that a covey is available for detection [i.e., that a covey vocalizes] and detection given availability). The logistic regression method produced an average detection probability of 0.596 (SE = 0.020) and the time-of-detection method produced a detection probability estimate of 0.540 (SE = 0.086), and the 2 estimates were not significantly different. This is the first evaluation of the time-of-detection method with empirical field data. Although the time-of-detection and logistic regression method each have advantages, both can be used under appropriate conditions to improve estimates of bobwhite abundance by allowing for the estimation of detection probabilities. Improved estimates of bobwhite abundance will allow land managers to make more informed management decisions. 相似文献
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Heidi K. LaMoreaux George A. Brook John A. Knox 《Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology》2009,280(3-4):300-312
A 5.4 m peat core from the Sandy Run Creek (SRC) valley in the upper Coastal Plain of Georgia shows that before 30 ka the valley had an aggradational sandy floor with shallow swales and low ridges of 1–2 m amplitude suggesting a braided stream pattern and a low water table. The climate from 30–25 ka was cool and dry and the vegetation open grassland with stands of pine and spruce that produced few fires. At ca. 16 ka a warmer, wetter climate caused SRC to meander and incise the valley fill removing some previously deposited sediment at the site of our peat core so that sediments of 13 ka rest directly on sediments deposited at 25 ka. After ca. 13 ka higher groundwater levels initiated vertical accretion of floodplains allowing peat accumulation in shallow depressions across the valley. Pollen from the Younger Dryas period (ca. 13–11 ka) indicates a cool, moist environment of open oak woodland, mesic trees, riparian populations of alder, and reduced levels of pine. By the early to mid Holocene, tupelo and oak dominated over pine indicating wetter conditions, while sand stringers in peat record periodic heavy rains, an elevated water table, and intervals of substantial runoff. Cooling after ca. 4.5 ka brought drier and more variable conditions. Fires increased and southern pine replaced tupelo and oak. The absence of sand stringers in peat younger than 4.5 ka indicates fewer intense rainfall events. 相似文献
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MAHMOUD R. HEMAMI† REW R. WATKINSON† ROBIN M. A. GILL‡ PAUL M. DOLMAN† 《Mammal Review》2007,37(3):246-254
- 1 Managing the conservation impacts of deer requires knowledge of their numbers. However, estimating densities in forested areas is problematic, with pellet‐group‐based methods subject to error and uncertainty in estimating defecation and decay rates in addition to sampling variance. Use of thermal imaging equipment allows direct census by distance sampling.
- 2 Densities of introduced Chinese muntjac Muntiacus reevesi and native roe deer Capreolus capreolus were estimated in 12.8 km2 of conifer forest in eastern England by thermal imaging distance transects. Estimated density of introduced muntjac (±95% confidence intervals [CI]: 20 ± 8 km−2) exceeded that of native roe deer (16 ± 6 km−2); 95% CI of c. 40% were achieved in 10 days of fieldwork.
- 3 Density estimates were not sensitive to the number of width bands applied during analysis. Detectability functions differed, with narrower effective strip widths (ESW) for muntjac (74 m) than roe deer (123 m). Thus, it is important to discriminate between species when censusing mixed assemblages. Detectability and ESW also differed among plantation growth stages. Stratification by habitat may therefore improve accuracy of density estimates but would require additional survey effort.
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Les D. Murray Robert J. Gates R. Manuel Spinola 《The Journal of wildlife management》2011,75(5):1072-1081
Roadside point counts are often used to estimate trends of bird populations. The use of aural counts of birds without adjustment for detection probability, however, can lead to incorrect population trend estimates. We compared precision of estimates of density and detectability of whistling northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) using distance sampling, independent double-observer, and removal methods from roadside surveys. Two observers independently recorded each whistling bird heard, distance from the observer, and time of first detection at 362 call-count stops in Ohio. We examined models that included covariates for year and observer effects for each method and distance from observer effects for the double-observer and removal methods using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The best model of detectability from distance sampling included observer and year effects. The best models from the removal and double-observer techniques included observer and distance effects. All 3 methods provided precise estimates of detection probability (CV = 2.4–4.4%) with a range of detectability of 0.44–0.95 for a 6-min survey. Density estimates from double-observer surveys had the lowest coefficient of variation (2005 = 3.2%, 2006 = 1.7%), but the removal method also provided precise estimates of density (2005 CV = 3.4%, 2006 CV = 4.8%), and density estimates from distance sampling were less precise (2005 CV = 9.6%, 2006 CV = 7.9%). Assumptions of distance sampling were violated in our study because probability of detecting bobwhites near the observer was <1 or the roadside survey points were not randomly distributed with respect to the birds. Distances also were not consistently recorded by individual members of observer pairs. Although double-observer surveys provided more precise estimates, we recommend using the removal method to estimate detectability and abundance of bobwhites. The removal method provided precise estimates of density and detection probability and requires half the personnel time as double-observer surveys. Furthermore, the likelihood of meeting model assumptions is higher for the removal survey than with independent double-observers. © 2011 The Wildlife Society. 相似文献
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Daniel J. Twedt 《Journal of Field Ornithology》2015,86(4):352-368
Estimating the size of bird populations is central to effective conservation planning and prudent management. I updated estimated regional bird populations for the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi using data from 275 North American Breeding Bird Surveys from 2009 to 2013. However, regional bird populations estimated from count surveys of breeding birds may be biased due to lack of empirical knowledge of the distance at which a species is effectively detected and the probability of detecting a species if it is present. I used data recorded within two distance classes (0–50 m and >50–400 m) and three 1‐min time intervals on 130 Breeding Bird Surveys to estimate detection probability and effective detection distance for 77 species. Incorporating these empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance resulted in estimated regional populations for these species that were markedly greater than regional populations estimated without species‐specific estimates of detection parameters. Using the same Breeding Bird Survey data, I also estimated probability of site occupancy for 66 species and extrapolated this to the proportion of area occupied in the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi. I combined the area occupied with the reported range of breeding territory size for 54 species to obtain independent estimates of regional bird populations. Although the true population of these species is unknown, estimated populations that incorporated empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance were more likely to be within the range of independently estimated, occupancy‐based, regional population estimates than were population estimates that lacked empirical detection and distance information. 相似文献
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Stoy PC Palmroth S Oishi AC Siqueira MB Juang JY Novick KA Ward EJ Katul GG Oren R 《Plant, cell & environment》2007,30(6):700-710
A number of recent studies have attributed a large proportion of soil respiration (R(soil)) to recently photoassimilated carbon (C). Time lags (tau(PR)) associated with these pulses of photosynthesis and responses of R(soil) have been found on time scales of hours to weeks for different ecosystems, but most studies find evidence for tau(PR) on the order of 1-5 d. We showed that such time scales are commensurate with CO(2) diffusion time scales from the roots to the soil surface, and may thus be independent from photosynthetic pulses. To further quantify the role of physical (i.e. edaphic) and biological (i.e. vegetative) controls on such lags, we investigated tau(PR) at adjacent planted pine (PP) and hardwood (HW) forest ecosystems over six and four measurement years, respectively, using both autocorrelation analysis on automated soil surface flux measurements and their lagged cross-correlations with drivers for and surrogates of photosynthesis. Evidence for tau(PR) on the order of 1-3 d was identified in both ecosystems and using both analyses, but this lag could not be attributed to recently photoassimilated C because the same analysis yielded comparable lags at HW during leaf-off periods. Future efforts to model ecosystem C inputs and outputs in a pulse-response framework must combine measurements of transport in the physical and biological components of terrestrial ecosystems. 相似文献
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Greenhouse and field experiments were conducted from 2005 to 2007 to determine the effectiveness of different release times
with the predatory mite, Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor), for control of the twospotted spider mite (TSSM), Tetranychus urticae Koch, in strawberries (Fragaria x ananassa Duchesne). The effect of N. californicus releases over time and on development of TSSM populations during a growing season were evaluated. Our hypothesis was that
repeated applications of N. californicus, which is currently recommended by biological control companies, might be unnecessary to attain season-long control of TSSM.
In greenhouse trials, three treatments consisting of releases of N. californicus at five-day intervals: day 0, day 5, and day 10, and an untreated control were evaluated. The treatment releases significantly
reduced TSSM below the control within five days of each release. Neoseiulus californicus significantly reduced TSSM in treatments with high densities (leaflets with ≥ 40 TSSM) below that of treatments with lower
densities (leaflets with ≤ 10 TSSM) demonstrating that if released at a predator: prey ratio of 1:10, timing of release does
not alter the effectiveness of N. californicus in controlling TSSM. However, we found that if the ratio of predator: prey remains adequate, N. californicus is a more efficient predator at high TSSM densities. Field studies included three treatments consisting of releases of N. californicus at one-month intervals. All treatments significantly reduced TSSM compared with the control plots (no releases). Releases
applied early in the season sustained TSSM significantly below those in the control plots for the whole season. Our results
indicate that one release of N. californicus is able to sustained control of TSSM in strawberry throughout a growing season if released when TSSM populations are low
early in the season in the southeastern United States. 相似文献
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Question: Can the geographic patterning of endemic plant species inform reserve selection in a region of high endemism? Location: The Southeastern Coastal Plain of North America, focusing primarily on the imperiled longleaf pine (Pinus palustris P. Miller) ecosystem. Methods: We documented the high level of plant endemism in the region, and characterized the endemic taxa into distributional subregions. Results: A total of 1630 plant taxa are endemic to the Coastal Plain, a large proportion of which are endemic to phytogeographical subregions within the Coastal Plain, with particularly large numbers of narrow endemics occurring in the East Gulf Coastal Plain and Florida Peninsula. Conclusions: This pattern of local endemism presents challenges in conserving the full biota of the region: a reserve system focusing on few and large conservation areas has theoretical benefits for long‐term management and viability, but will fail to capture many local endemics. We propose that the dispersed distribution of endemic species will require a mixture of large core reserves and smaller satellite reserves. 相似文献
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Monitoring abundance of threatened species is important for conservation planning. Lilian’s Lovebird Agapornis lilianae is a near-threatened small parrot found in mopane Colophospermum mopane woodland. Its population has not been investigated in any part of its range. We investigated the abundance and density of the Lilian’s Lovebird in Liwonde National Park, Malawi. Both distance sampling (line and point transects) methods and total counts (waterhole and flyway counts) were applied. The point count method gave very low numbers and was discontinued after the first year. Line transects conducted during the wet season had the highest density estimates of 17 ± 4.8 lovebirds km?2 of mopane woodland. However, number of observations per transect in each year were low. Waterhole counts had the lowest density estimates (10 ± 3.5 lovebirds km?2). Flyway counts gave an intermediate estimate (13 ± 3.0 lovebirds km?2). The total population of Lilian’s Lovebirds in Liwonde National Park is therefore estimated to be about 4 000 individuals. The use of line transect counts at the end of the rainy season is recommended for continued monitoring of Lilian’s Lovebirds abundance in Liwonde National Park. 相似文献
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Cory J. Gregory Stephen J. Dinsmore Larkin A. Powell Joel G. Jorgensen 《Journal of Field Ornithology》2012,83(2):122-129
ABSTRACT Long‐billed Curlews (Numenius americanus) are shorebirds of high conservation concern in North America. Populations have declined in the last 150 yr primarily due to habitat loss and conversion. We conducted a 2‐yr study to estimate the density and statewide abundance of breeding Long‐billed Curlews in Nebraska during 2008 and 2009. Surveys were conducted during the prenesting period in April when Long‐billed Curlews were likely to be detected. We used a simple random sample of roadside survey routes (N= 39), each consisting of 40 5‐min point‐counts at 800‐m intervals. We modeled detection probability and found that wind speed negatively affected detectability, but found no evidence of either year effects or observer bias. We estimated there were 0.0038 Long‐billed Curlews per hectare (0.38 Long‐billed Curlews per km2) along survey routes and, by extrapolation, estimated there were 23,909 (SE = 1685; 95% CI: 20,810—27,471) Long‐billed Curlews in Nebraska. Our population estimate suggests that ~15 to 22% of the United States population of Long‐billed Curlews is found in Nebraska. Curlews were not evenly distributed within our survey area, with the highest densities in the central Sandhills, an area dominated by grass‐stabilized sand dunes and shallow wetlands, and the lowest densities in predominantly agricultural areas. Because Long‐billed Curlews in Nebraska face many potential threats resulting from land‐use changes, monitoring of the breeding population should be continued. Our survey method was efficient and yielded interpretable results; other states or regions should consider adopting this approach for estimating curlew abundance. 相似文献
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We report the results of a 3-year study of ichthyoplankton in the lower Savannah River and its coastal plain tributaries.
Sampling was weekly from February through July in 1983, 1984 and 1985. Ichthyoplankton transport was used as an estimate of
ichthyoplankton production. Ichthyoplankton transport in the river, for both total and most common taxa, was highest in 1983
and lowest in 1985. Ichthyoplankton transport into the river from tributary streams was also highest in 1983 and lowest in
1985. Ichthyoplankton transported from these tributaries sometimes comprised a significant percent of the larval transport
at the next river station downstream from the tributary mouth. The highest larval transport occurred when the spring flood
pulse was most elevated for the longest time, and larval transport at particular river stations or creeks was correlated with
floodplain width in 1983 and 1984, years when flood pulses were high enough so that the adjacent floodplain was inundated
during or following spawning. In 1985 the flood pulse was brief, inundation levels were low, and inundation occurred in February
before most fish had spawned. Except for American shad and sunfishes, larval transport for all common taxa was greatly reduced
in 1985 compared to 1983. 相似文献
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Emanuele Repetto;Pietro Milanesi;Livia De Caria;Francesca Della Rocca; 《Ecology and evolution》2024,14(5):e11381
The expansion of forest cover and intensification of agriculture represent the main threats to the bush cricket Saga pedo, currently listed as Vulnerable globally by the IUCN and included in Annex IV of the European Union Habitats Directive. Gathering information on its ecology and population size is challenging due to its low abundance and localized distribution. Additionally, the elusive and cryptic behavior of this species reduces the likelihood of its detection, potentially resulting in population underestimations. Thus, in this study, we aimed to (1) estimate S. pedo population size in relation to environmental variables and prey availability and (2) predict abundance of S. pedo in our study area for future monitoring in nearby territories. We found that the population of S. pedo in our study area consists of 197 (±115) individuals with a detection probability of 21.01% (±11.09). Detection probability of S. pedo further decreases on windy days. Moreover, we found that the investigated population of S. pedo occupies suboptimal areas, as highlighted not only by the predicted abundances but also by the association between S. pedo and other subfamilies of orthoptera that are ecologically very distant from our target species and mostly linked to mesophilic biotopes. Most of the individuals we observed are concentrated in small clearings completely within wooded matrices and therefore isolated from each other. Based on our results, it is possible that forest expansion toward open meadows represents the main threat to this population, transforming the clearings and xeric meadows (to which S. pedo is linked) into small and fragmented patches that are suboptimal and insufficient to host viable populations. 相似文献