Total Counts Versus Line Transects for Estimating Abundance of Small Gopher Tortoise Populations

Abstract: Status and trends of gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) populations are a critical information need for natural resource managers, researchers, and policy makers. Many tortoise populations are small and isolated, which can present challenges for deriving population estimates. Our objective was to compare abundance and density estimates for a small tortoise population derived using a total burrow count versus estimates obtained with line transect distance sampling (LTDS) using repeated surveys. We also compared results of the 2 survey methods using standard burrow-to-tortoise correction factors versus assessing occupancy of all burrows with a camera scope. In addition, we compared LTDS data obtained using a compass and measuring tape to define transects to those obtained using a Global Positioning System (GPS) and Personal Data Assistant (PDA) field computer to navigate transects. Line transect distance sampling with repeated surveys (both with a measuring tape and compass and with a GPS—PDA) yielded sufficient observations of tortoises to calculate population estimates. From 18% to 31% of burrows were occupied by tortoises as determined with the burrow camera. We found 25 burrows during the LTDS survey that we did not find in the total count survey, which demonstrated that the assumption of 100% detection for the total count was not met; hence, density or abundance measurements derived with this method were underestimates. We recommend using GPS—PDA technology, scoping all burrows detected, and using LTDS with repeated surveys to estimate abundance and density for small gopher tortoise populations.     

An Evaluation of Survey Methods for Estimating Northern Bobwhite Abundance in Southern Texas

Abstract: Distance sampling has been identified as a reliable and well-suited method for estimating northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) density. However, distance sampling using walked transects requires intense sampling to obtain precise estimates, thus making the technique impractical for large acreages. Researchers have addressed this limitation by either resorting to the use of indices (e.g., morning covey-call surveys) or incorporating the use of aerial surveys with distance sampling. Both approaches remain relatively untested. Our objectives were to 1) compare density estimates among morning covey-call surveys, helicopter transects, and walked transects; 2) test a critical assumption of distance sampling pertinent to helicopter surveys (i.e., all objects on line are detected); and 3) evaluate the underlying premise of morning covey-call surveys (i.e., that the no. of calling coveys correlates with bobwhite density). Our study was conducted on 3 study sites in Brooks County, Texas, USA, during October to December, 2001 to 2005. Comparisons between walked transects and morning covey-call surveys involved the entire 5-year data set, whereas helicopter transects involved only the latter 2 years. Density estimates obtained from helicopter transects were similar to walked transect estimates for both years. We documented a detection probability on the helicopter transect line of 70 ± 10.2% (% ± SE; n = 20 coveys). Morning covey-call surveys yielded similar density estimates to walked transect estimates during only 2 of 5 years, when walked transect estimates were the least accurate and precise. We detected a positive relationship (R² = 0.51; 95% CI for slope: 29.5–53.1; n = 63 observations) between covey density and number of coveys heard calling. We conclude that helicopter transects appear to be a viable alternative to walked transects for estimating density of bobwhites. Morning covey-call surveys appear to be a poor method to estimate absolute abundance and to depict general population trajectories.     

Road-Based Surveys for Estimating Wild Turkey Density in the Texas Rolling Plains

Abstract: Line-transect-based distance sampling has been used to estimate density of several wild bird species including wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo). We used inflatable turkey decoys during autumn (Aug-Nov) and winter (Dec-Mar) 2003-2005 at study sites in the Texas Rolling Plains, USA, to simulate Rio Grande wild turkey (M. g. intermedia) flocks. We evaluated detectability of flocks using logistic regression models. Our modeling effort suggested that distance to a flock and flock size played important roles in flock detectability. We also conducted surveys from roads for wild turkeys during November 2004-January 2006. The detection probability of decoy flocks was similar to wild turkey flocks during winter (decoy flock, 69.3 ± 6.2% [x̄ ± 95% CI]; wild turkey flock, 62.2 ± 18.3%) and autumn (decoy flock, 44.1 ± 5.1%; wild turkey flock, 44.7 ± 25.6%), which suggested that using decoys was appropriate for evaluating detectability of wild turkey flocks from roads. We conducted computer simulations to evaluate the performance of line-transect-based distance sampling and examined the power to detect trends in population change. Simulations suggested that population density may be underestimated by 12% during inter and 29% during autumn. Such bias occurred because of incomplete detectability of flocks near roads. Winter surveys tended to have less bias, lower relative variability, and greater power than did autumn surveys. During winter surveys, power was sufficient (≥0.80) to detect a 10-25% change in population density in 8-12 years using ≥100 16-km transects or ≥80 32-km transects. We concluded line-transect-based distance sampling from roads is an efficient, effective, and inexpensive technique for monitoring Rio Grande wild turkey populations across large scales.     

Encounter Rates From Road-Based Surveys of Rio Grande Wild Turkeys in Texas

ABSTRACT Traditional index-based techniques have indicated declines in Rio Grande wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo intermedia; hereafter, wild turkey) populations across much of Texas, USA. However, population indices can be unreliable. Research has indicated that road-based surveys may be an efficacious technique for monitoring wild turkey populations on an ecoregion level. Therefore, our goal was to evaluate applicability of road-based distance sampling in the Cross Timbers, Edwards Plateau, Rolling Plains, and South Texas ecoregions of Texas. We conducted road-based surveys in each ecoregion during December 2007—March 2008 to estimate wild turkey flock encounter rates and to determine survey effort (i.e., km of roads) required to obtain adequate sample sizes for distance sampling in each ecoregion. With simulations using inflatable turkey decoys, we also evaluated effects of distance to a flock, flock size, and vegetative cover on turkey flock detectability. Encounter rates of wild turkey flocks from road-based surveys varied from 0.1 (95% CI = 0.0–0.6) to 2.2 (95% CI = 0.8–6.0) flocks/100 km surveyed. Encounter rates from surveys restricted to riparian communities (i.e., areas ≤1 km from a river or stream) varied from 0.2 (95% CI = 0.1–0.6) to 2.9 (95% CI = 1.5–6.7) flocks/100 km surveyed. Flock detection probabilities from field simulations ranged from 22.5% (95% CI = 16.3–29.8%) to 25.0% (95% CI = 13.6–39.6%). Flock detection probabilities were lower than expected in all 4 ecoregions, which resulted in low encounter rates. Estimated survey effort required to obtain adequate sample sizes for distance sampling ranged from 2,765 km (95% CI = 2,597–2,956 km) in the Edwards Plateau to 37,153 km (95% CI = 12,861–107,329 km) in South Texas. When we restricted road-based surveys to riparian communities, estimated survey effort ranged from 2,222 km (95% CI = 2,092–2,370 km) in the Edwards Plateau to 22,222 km (95% CI = 19,782–25,349 km) in South Texas.     

Aerial Surveys for Estimating Wild Turkey Abundance in the Texas Rolling Plains

Abstract: Aerial surveys have been used to estimate abundance of several wild bird species including wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo). We used inflatable turkey decoys at 3 study sites in the Texas Rolling Plains to simulate Rio Grande wild turkey (M. g. intermedia) flocks. We evaluated detectability of flocks and errors in counting flock size during fixed-wing (Cessna 172) aerial surveys using logistic and linear regression models. Flock detectability was primarily influenced by flock size and vegetative cover, and errors in counting flock size were primarily influenced by size of flocks. We conducted computer simulations to evaluate the accuracy and precision of fixed-wing aerial surveys and examined power to detect trends in population change. Our simulations suggested abundance estimates from fixed-wing aerial surveys may be underestimated by 10-15% (2.0-4.8% CV). Power analyses suggested that fixed-wing aerial surveys can provide sufficient power (>0.80) to detect a population change of 10-25% over a 4-5-year period. We concluded fixed-wing aerial surveys are feasible on ecoregion scales.     

Ape Abundance and Habitat Use in the Goualougo Triangle, Republic of Congo

Chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes troglodytes) and western gorilla (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) populations in central Africa are rapidly declining as a result of disease epidemics, commercial bushmeat hunting, and habitat destruction. Our main objective was to estimate the absolute abundance and habitat utilization of chimpanzees and gorillas in the intact forests of the Goualougo Triangle in the Republic of Congo, and in an adjacent area in which selective logging will take place in the near future. The estimates provide a unique baseline for apes inhabiting an undisturbed environment. A second objective was to compare estimates of abundance and patterns of habitat utilization generated by different techniques: 1) distance sampling of individual ape nests and nest sites along line transects, 2) direct observations of apes during reconnaissance surveys, and 3) observations of ape traces during reconnaissance surveys. We completed a total of 222 km of line transect surveys in 4 sampling areas, resulting in overall density estimates of 1.53 chimpanzees/km² and 2.34 gorillas/km² from nest sites. We generated a density estimate of 2.23 chimpanzees/km² from direct observations during reconnaissance surveys of a semihabituated community in 1 of the 4 sampling areas. Habitat use profiles that nest surveys depicted on transects differed from those of direct observations and traces we encountered on reconnaissance surveys. We found the highest overall abundance of chimpanzee nests in monodominant Gilbertiodendron forest, whereas our direct observations showed that chimpanzees preferred mixed species forest. Transects that traversed the core area of the community range had the highest encounter rates of chimpanzee nests and nest sites. Gorilla nests on transects showed a preference only for mixed species forest with an open canopy, but direct observations and traces on reconnaissance surveys clearly indicated that gorillas use several habitat types. We conclude by evaluating the precision of these nest surveys and our ability to detect future trends in ape densities in the Goualougo Triangle.

Comparison of Methods for Estimating Bird Abundance and Trends From Historical Count Data

Abstract: The use of bird counts as indices has come under increasing scrutiny because assumptions concerning detection probabilities may not be met, but there also seems to be some resistance to use of model-based approaches to estimating abundance. We used data from the United States Forest Service, Southern Region bird monitoring program to compare several common approaches for estimating annual abundance or indices and population trends from point-count data. We compared indices of abundance estimated as annual means of counts and from a mixed-Poisson model to abundance estimates from a count-removal model with 3 time intervals and a distance model with 3 distance bands. We compared trend estimates calculated from an autoregressive, exponential model fit to annual abundance estimates from the above methods and also by estimating trend directly by treating year as a continuous covariate in the mixed-Poisson model. We produced estimates for 6 forest songbirds based on an average of 621 and 459 points in 2 physiographic areas from 1997 to 2004. There was strong evidence that detection probabilities varied among species and years. Nevertheless, there was good overall agreement across trend estimates from the 5 methods for 9 of 12 comparisons. In 3 of 12 comparisons, however, patterns in detection probabilities potentially confounded interpretation of uncorrected counts. Estimates of detection probabilities differed greatly between removal and distance models, likely because the methods estimated different components of detection probability and the data collection was not optimally designed for either method. Given that detection probabilities often vary among species, years, and observers investigators should address detection probability in their surveys, whether it be by estimation of probability of detection and abundance, estimation of effects of key covariates when modeling count as an index of abundance, or through design-based methods to standardize these effects.     

Estimating the abundance of Long‐billed Curlews in Nebraska

ABSTRACT Long‐billed Curlews (Numenius americanus) are shorebirds of high conservation concern in North America. Populations have declined in the last 150 yr primarily due to habitat loss and conversion. We conducted a 2‐yr study to estimate the density and statewide abundance of breeding Long‐billed Curlews in Nebraska during 2008 and 2009. Surveys were conducted during the prenesting period in April when Long‐billed Curlews were likely to be detected. We used a simple random sample of roadside survey routes (N= 39), each consisting of 40 5‐min point‐counts at 800‐m intervals. We modeled detection probability and found that wind speed negatively affected detectability, but found no evidence of either year effects or observer bias. We estimated there were 0.0038 Long‐billed Curlews per hectare (0.38 Long‐billed Curlews per km²) along survey routes and, by extrapolation, estimated there were 23,909 (SE = 1685; 95% CI: 20,810—27,471) Long‐billed Curlews in Nebraska. Our population estimate suggests that ～15 to 22% of the United States population of Long‐billed Curlews is found in Nebraska. Curlews were not evenly distributed within our survey area, with the highest densities in the central Sandhills, an area dominated by grass‐stabilized sand dunes and shallow wetlands, and the lowest densities in predominantly agricultural areas. Because Long‐billed Curlews in Nebraska face many potential threats resulting from land‐use changes, monitoring of the breeding population should be continued. Our survey method was efficient and yielded interpretable results; other states or regions should consider adopting this approach for estimating curlew abundance.     

Seasonal variation in grey crowned crane (Balearica regulorum) abundance in the Ngorongoro Crater,Tanzania

There are few quantitative estimates of numbers of Africa's endangered grey crowned cranes (Balearica regulorum), yet conservation of this species will depend on such estimates. We used line-transect distance sampling on multiple 2-km segments of an existing road network to estimate the abundance of grey crowned cranes in a portion of the Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania, during the wet (April) and dry (August) seasons of 2016. We analysed data from 106 transects on which we observed 174 groups of 1–61 cranes (median and mode = 2). Abundance and density estimates on the areas surveyed were best modelled without group size as a covariate and indicated that mean crane densities were significantly lower in the wet season (2.4/km²) than in the dry season (20.2 cranes/km²). Even based on survey areas of different size, minimum estimated numbers of cranes in the Crater (wet season: 108–133; dry season: 362–401) likely reflect the concentration of cranes in the nonbreeding (dry) season in the perennial wetlands of the Crater and reinforce the notion of the Crater being a key seasonal habitat for crane populations in northern Tanzania, as previously suggested in the literature.     

Aerial surveys suggest long‐term stability in the seasonally ice‐free Foxe Basin (Nunavut) polar bear population

Significant information gaps exist regarding the status of polar bears, especially with respect to the impacts of climate change, across large portions of the Arctic. To obtain an updated abundance estimate for the Foxe Basin population, we conducted comprehensive aerial surveys during the 2009 and 2010 ice‐free seasons, when bears are confined to land. We sampled with mark‐recapture distance sampling protocols on inland and coastal transects and surveyed small islands and remnant ice floes. We observed 816 and 1,003 bears in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Although detection functions differed substantially between years, estimates were consistent between analytical methods and years. Averaging four estimates (two from each year) yielded 2,585 (2,096–3,189) bears, which is similar to an estimate from the 1990s. This result, along with robust cub production, suggests a stable and healthy population despite deteriorating sea ice conditions. Collectively, this and other recent on‐land surveys provide a framework for implementing aerial surveys elsewhere. Although aerial surveys do not yield estimates of vital rates or population growth, they enable more rapid and frequent monitoring than mark‐recapture. Integrating them in long‐term monitoring programs will require consideration of ancillary data to infer status and facilitate setting harvest levels.     

Estimating the population size of the Sanje mangabey (Cercocebus sanjei) using acoustic distance sampling

The Sanje mangabey (Cercocebus sanjei) is endemic to the Udzungwa Mountains, Tanzania, and is classified as Endangered due to its putatively declining population size, habitat degradation and fragmentation. Previous population size estimates have ranged from 1,350 to 3,500 individuals, with the last direct survey being conducted 15 years before the present study. Previous estimates are now thought to have underestimated the population due to a limited knowledge of group and habitat size, nonsystematic approaches and the use of visual methods that are not suitable for surveying the Sanje mangabey with its semi-terrestrial and elusive behaviors. We used an acoustic survey method with observers recording the distinctive “whoop-gobble” vocalization produced by mangabeys and point transect distance sampling to model a detection function and estimate abundance. Twenty-eight surveys were conducted throughout the two forests where Sanje mangabeys are found: Mwanihana forest in the Udzungwa Mountains National Park (n = 13), and the Uzungwa Scarp Nature Reserve (n = 15). Group density was found to be significantly lower in the relatively unprotected Uzungwa Scarp forest (0.15 groups/km²; 95% CI: 0.08–0.27) compared to the well-protected Mwanihana forest (0.29 groups/km²; 95% CI: 0.19–0.43; p = .03). We estimate that there are 1,712 (95% CI: 1,141–2,567) individuals in Mwanihana and 1,455 (95% CI: 783–2,702) in the Uzungwa Scarp, resulting in a total population size of 3,167 (95% CI: 2,181–4,596) individuals. The difference in group density between sites is likely a result of the differing protection status and levels of enforcement between the forests, suggesting that protection of the Uzungwa Scarp should be increased to encourage recovery of the population, and reduce the threat of degradation and hunting. Our results contribute to the reassessment of the species' IUCN Red List status and informing management and conservation action planning.     

First record of Alicia mirabilis (Anthozoa: Actiniaria) from the Aegean Sea and density assessment with distance sampling in a site of high abundance

The occurrence of the actiniarian Alicia mirabilis in the Aegean Sea is documented for the first time from five sites in the Saronikos Gulf. The density of A. mirabilis was assessed in one site (Lychnari bay) with line transects (underwater distance sampling with SCUBA). Its density ranged between 0 and 4.3 individuals are^-1 (1 are=100 m²) with a mean of 1.1±0.5 individuals are^-1. The species was found in a variety of substrates (sandy bottoms, weeds, seagrass beds, rocks, litter) and its distribution was aggregated. Distance sampling was an efficient way to estimate the density of A. mirabillis and is proposed as a good choice for density estimations of actiniarians and other benthic fauna.     

Estimating the encounter rate variance in distance sampling

Summary .  The dominant source of variance in line transect sampling is usually the encounter rate variance. Systematic survey designs are often used to reduce the true variability among different realizations of the design, but estimating the variance is difficult and estimators typically approximate the variance by treating the design as a simple random sample of lines. We explore the properties of different encounter rate variance estimators under random and systematic designs. We show that a design-based variance estimator improves upon the model-based estimator of Buckland et al. (2001, Introduction to Distance Sampling. Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. 79) when transects are positioned at random. However, if populations exhibit strong spatial trends, both estimators can have substantial positive bias under systematic designs. We show that poststratification is effective in reducing this bias.     

Abundance and abundance change in the world's parrots

Estimates of population density and abundance change (differences in density or encounter rates across land uses or time periods) form the cornerstone of much of our knowledge of species' responses to environmental conditions, extinction risks and potential conservation actions. Gathering baseline data on abundance of the world's c. 10 000 bird species and monitoring trends in the light of rapidly changing environmental and harvest pressures is a daunting prospect. With this in mind, we review literature on population densities and abundance changes across habitats in one of the world's largest and most threatened bird families, the parrots (Psittaciformes), to identify gaps in knowledge, model phylogenetic and other influences on abundance, and seek patterns that might guide thinking for data‐deficient taxa and situations. Density estimates were found for only 25% of 356 parrot species. Abundance change data were similarly limited and most came from logged forest, with very few comparisons across different anthropogenic habitats. Threatened species were no more likely to have a density estimate than non‐threatened species, and were less likely to have estimates of abundance change. Exploratory generalized linear mixed models indicated that densities are most influenced by genus, and are generally higher within protected areas than outside. It is unclear whether the latter effect stems from habitat protection, a reduction in poaching or both, but protected areas appear to be beneficial for parrots. Individual members of the ‘parakeet’ genera (e.g. Pyrrhura and Eos) were predictably abundant, whereas within larger‐bodied genera such as Ara (macaws), species were predictably uncommon (< 10 individuals per km²) and there was a long tail of extreme rarity. Responses of parrots to habitat change were highly variable, with natural variation in parrot abundance across different primary forests as great as that between primary forest and human‐altered forests. The speed at which environmental change is affecting the world's parrots far outstrips that of our current capacity to track their abundance and we assess the likely scale of data deficiency in this and other bird groups. Developments in survey and analysis methods such as variants of distance sampling and the integration of niche modelling with point density estimation may increase our effectiveness in monitoring parrots and other important and threatened bird groups.     

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Relative Abundance of Grapsid Crabs

Grapsid crabs are one of the most common, and potentially important, elements of the mangrove fauna but relatively little information is available on patterns in their distribution and abundance. In part, this may be due to difficulties in estimating the abundance of burrowing species. By not having reliable methods of estimating changes in distribution and abundance of crabs, ecological impacts of crabs may be greatly underestimated. We tested several methods for estimating the apparent abundance of eight species of grapsids in a north Australian mangrove forest. These methods included continuous and instantaneous visual counts at two distances, two types of pitfall traps and photography. We also excavated crabs to test the reliability of the best of these methods. Overall, pitfall traps equipped with funnels proved most useful, although these did preferentially capture larger crabs. An exception was the large crab, Neosarmatium meinerti, which was rarely captured and more reliably estimated by burrow counts. Traps proved to be most useful in this study and may be for long term studies of grapsid species, however, the selection of a method should be made after careful evaluation of the questions and relevant information required for any particular study. Finally, these methods may also prove to be useful in other environments such as salt marshes.     

Estimating Abundance of an Unmarked,Low-Density Species using Cameras

Estimating abundance of wildlife populations can be challenging and costly, especially for species that are difficult to detect and that live at low densities, such as cougars (Puma concolor). Remote, motion-sensitive cameras are a relatively efficient monitoring tool, but most abundance estimation techniques using remote cameras rely on some or all of the population being uniquely identifiable. Recently developed methods estimate abundance from encounter rates with remote cameras and do not require identifiable individuals. We used 2 methods, the time-to-event and space-to-event models, to estimate the density of 2 cougar populations in Idaho, USA, over 3 winters from 2016–2019. We concurrently estimated cougar density using the random encounter model (REM), an existing camera-based method for unmarked populations, and genetic spatial capture recapture (SCR), an established method for monitoring cougar populations. In surveys for which we successfully estimated density using the SCR model, the time-to-event estimates were more precise and showed comparable variation between survey years. The space-to-event estimates were less precise than the SCR estimates and were more variable between survey years. Compared to REM, time-to-event was more precise and consistent, and space-to-event was less precise and consistent. Low sample sizes made the space-to-event and SCR models inconsistent from survey to survey, and non-random camera placement may have biased both of the camera-based estimators high. We show that camera-based estimators can perform comparably to existing methods for estimating abundance in unmarked species that live at low densities. With the time- and space-to-event models, managers could use remote cameras to monitor populations of multiple species at broader spatial and temporal scales than existing methods allow. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Estimating abundance of introduced Chinese muntjac Muntiacus reevesi and native roe deer Capreolus capreolus using portable thermal imaging equipment

• 1 Managing the conservation impacts of deer requires knowledge of their numbers. However, estimating densities in forested areas is problematic, with pellet‐group‐based methods subject to error and uncertainty in estimating defecation and decay rates in addition to sampling variance. Use of thermal imaging equipment allows direct census by distance sampling.
• 2 Densities of introduced Chinese muntjac Muntiacus reevesi and native roe deer Capreolus capreolus were estimated in 12.8 km² of conifer forest in eastern England by thermal imaging distance transects. Estimated density of introduced muntjac (±95% confidence intervals [CI]: 20 ± 8 km⁻²) exceeded that of native roe deer (16 ± 6 km⁻²); 95% CI of c. 40% were achieved in 10 days of fieldwork.
• 3 Density estimates were not sensitive to the number of width bands applied during analysis. Detectability functions differed, with narrower effective strip widths (ESW) for muntjac (74 m) than roe deer (123 m). Thus, it is important to discriminate between species when censusing mixed assemblages. Detectability and ESW also differed among plantation growth stages. Stratification by habitat may therefore improve accuracy of density estimates but would require additional survey effort.