Advantages and limitations of nonhuman primates as animal models in genetic research on complex diseases

Abstract: The genetic similarity between humans and nonhuman primates makes nonhuman primates uniquely suited as models for genetic research on complex physiological and behavioral phenotypes. By comparison with human subjects, nonhuman primates, like other animal models, have several advantages for these types of studies: 1) constant environmental conditions can be maintained over long periods of time, greatly increasing the power to detect genetic effects; 2) different environmental conditions can be imposed sequentially on individuals to characterize genotype-environment interactions; 3) complex pedigrees that are much more powerful for genetic analysis than typically available human pedigrees can be generated; 4) genetic hypotheses can be tested prospectively by selective matings; and 5) essential invasive and terminal experiments can be conducted. Limitations of genetic research with nonhuman primates include cost and availability. However, the ability to manipulate both genetic and environmental factors in captive primate populations indicates the promise of genetic research with these important animal models for illuminating complex disease processes. The utility of nonhuman primates for biomedical research on human health problems is illustrated by examples concerning the use of baboons in studies of osteoporosis, alcohol metabolism, and lipoproteins.     

Nonparametric pathway-based regression models for analysis of genomic data

High-throughout genomic data provide an opportunity for identifying pathways and genes that are related to various clinical phenotypes. Besides these genomic data, another valuable source of data is the biological knowledge about genes and pathways that might be related to the phenotypes of many complex diseases. Databases of such knowledge are often called the metadata. In microarray data analysis, such metadata are currently explored in post hoc ways by gene set enrichment analysis but have hardly been utilized in the modeling step. We propose to develop and evaluate a pathway-based gradient descent boosting procedure for nonparametric pathways-based regression (NPR) analysis to efficiently integrate genomic data and metadata. Such NPR models consider multiple pathways simultaneously and allow complex interactions among genes within the pathways and can be applied to identify pathways and genes that are related to variations of the phenotypes. These methods also provide an alternative to mediating the problem of a large number of potential interactions by limiting analysis to biologically plausible interactions between genes in related pathways. Our simulation studies indicate that the proposed boosting procedure can indeed identify relevant pathways. Application to a gene expression data set on breast cancer distant metastasis identified that Wnt, apoptosis, and cell cycle-regulated pathways are more likely related to the risk of distant metastasis among lymph-node-negative breast cancer patients. Results from analysis of other two breast cancer gene expression data sets indicate that the pathways of Metalloendopeptidases (MMPs) and MMP inhibitors, as well as cell proliferation, cell growth, and maintenance are important to breast cancer relapse and survival. We also observed that by incorporating the pathway information, we achieved better prediction for cancer recurrence.     

Some unexamined aspects of analysis of covariance in pretest-posttest studies

The use of an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) model in a pretest-posttest setting deserves to be studied separately from its use in other (non-pretest-posttest) settings. For pretest-posttest studies, the following points are made in this article: (a) If the familiar change from baseline model accurately describes the data-generating mechanism for a randomized study then it is impossible for unequal slopes to exist. Conversely, if unequal slopes exist, then it implies that the change from baseline model as a data-generating mechanism is inappropriate. An alternative data-generating model should be identified and the validity of the ANCOVA model should be demonstrated. (b) Under the usual assumptions of equal pretest and posttest within-subject error variances, the ratio of the standard error of a treatment contrast from a change from baseline analysis to that from ANCOVA is less than 2(1)/(2). (c) For an observational study it is possible for unequal slopes to exist even if the change from baseline model describes the data-generating mechanism. (d) Adjusting for the pretest variable in observational studies may actually introduce bias where none previously existed.     

An assessment of non-randomized medical treatment of long-term schizophrenia relapse using bivariate binary-response transition models

The analyses of observational longitudinal studies involving concurrent changes in treatment and medical conditions present difficulties because of the multitude of directions of potential relationships: past medication influences current symptoms; past symptoms influence current medication; and current medication is associated with current symptoms. In the context of a long-term study of non-randomized pharmacological treatment of schizophrenic relapse, we present an analysis of bivariate discrete-time transitional data with binary responses in an attempt to understand the transitional and concurrent relationships between schizophrenia relapse and medication use. A naive analysis does not show any association between previous medication and current relapse. However, we provide evidence suggesting that current treatment may impact current relapse for those who have previously taken medication, but not for those who haven't taken medication in the past. When univariate models are specified to assess these associations, the bivariate nature of the problem requires a choice of which response, relapse or medication, should be the dependent variable. In this case, the choice of relapse or medication as a dependent variable does matter. Hence, our results derive from models where both relapse and medication are treated as dependent variables. Specifically, we specify a bivariate log odds ratio for current relapse and current medication use and a separate univariate logit component for each of these outcomes. Each of these components contains transitional associations with previous relapse and medication. Such models represent extensions of univariate transitional association models (e.g. Diggle et al. (1994)) and correspond to bivariate transitional models (e.g. Zeger and Liang (1991)). We incorporate changes in transitional associations into the full-data parametric model for final inference, and investigate if these temporal changes are due to learning effects or the impact of drop-out. We also perform residual analyses and sensitivity analyses in the context of missing data patterns.     

Variable selection in regression-based estimation of dynamic treatment regimes

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) consist of a sequence of decision rules, one per stage of intervention, that aim to recommend effective treatments for individual patients according to patient information history. DTRs can be estimated from models which include interactions between treatment and a (typically small) number of covariates which are often chosen a priori. However, with increasingly large and complex data being collected, it can be difficult to know which prognostic factors might be relevant in the treatment rule. Therefore, a more data-driven approach to select these covariates might improve the estimated decision rules and simplify models to make them easier to interpret. We propose a variable selection method for DTR estimation using penalized dynamic weighted least squares. Our method has the strong heredity property, that is, an interaction term can be included in the model only if the corresponding main terms have also been selected. We show our method has both the double robustness property and the oracle property theoretically; and the newly proposed method compares favorably with other variable selection approaches in numerical studies. We further illustrate the proposed method on data from the Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression study.     

Meta-models as a straightforward approach to the sensitivity analysis of complex models

Complex simulation models are important tools in applied ecological and conservation research. However sensitivity analysis of this important class of models can be difficult to conduct. High level interactions and non-linear responses are common in complex simulations, and this necessitates a global sensitivity analysis, where each parameter is tested at a range of values, and in combination with changes in many other parameters. We reviewed the literature, searching for population viability analyses that used simulation models. We found only 9 out of the 122 simulation population viability analysis used global sensitivity analysis. This result is typical of other simulation models in applied ecology, where global sensitivity analysis is rare. We then demonstrate how to conduct a meta-modeling sensitivity analysis, where a simpler statistically fit function (the meta-model, also known as the surrogate model or emulator) is used to approximate the behavior of the complicated simulation. This simpler meta-model is interrogated to inform on the behavior of simulation model. We fit two example meta-models, a generalized linear model and a boosted regression tree, to exemplify the approach. Our hope is that by going through these techniques thoroughly they will become more widely adopted.     

A guide to analysis of mouse energy metabolism

We present a consolidated view of the complexity and challenges of designing studies for measurement of energy metabolism in mouse models, including a practical guide to the assessment of energy expenditure, energy intake and body composition and statistical analysis thereof. We hope this guide will facilitate comparisons across studies and minimize spurious interpretations of data. We recommend that division of energy expenditure data by either body weight or lean body weight and that presentation of group effects as histograms should be replaced by plotting individual data and analyzing both group and body-composition effects using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA).     

Ways of Learning: Observational Studies Versus Experiments

Abstract Manipulative experimentation that features random assignment of treatments, replication, and controls is an effective way to determine causal relationships. Wildlife ecologists, however, often must take a more passive approach to investigating causality. Their observational studies lack one or more of the 3 cornerstones of experimentation: controls, randomization, and replication. Although an observational study can be analyzed similarly to an experiment, one is less certain that the presumed treatment actually caused the observed response. Because the investigator does not actively manipulate the system, the chance that something other than the treatment caused the observed results is increased. We reviewed observational studies and contrasted them with experiments and, to a lesser extent, sample surveys. We identified features that distinguish each method of learning and illustrate or discuss some complications that may arise when analyzing results of observational studies. Findings from observational studies are prone to bias. Investigators can reduce the chance of reaching erroneous conclusions by formulating a priori hypotheses that can be pursued multiple ways and by evaluating the sensitivity of study conclusions to biases of various magnitudes. In the end, however, professional judgment that considers all available evidence is necessary to render a decision regarding causality based on observational studies. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(1):4–13; 2008)     

Comparison of Linear,Nonlinear and Semiparametric Mixed‐effects Models for Estimating HIV Dynamic Parameters

The potency of antiretroviral agents in AIDS clinical trials can be assessed on the basis of an early viral response such as viral decay rate or change in viral load (number of copies of HIV RNA) of the plasma. Linear, parametric nonlinear, and semiparametric nonlinear mixed‐effects models have been proposed to estimate viral decay rates in viral dynamic models. However, before applying these models to clinical data, a critical question that remains to be addressed is whether these models produce coherent estimates of viral decay rates, and if not, which model is appropriate and should be used in practice. In this paper, we applied these models to data from an AIDS clinical trial of potent antiviral treatments and found significant incongruity in the estimated rates of reduction in viral load. Simulation studies indicated that reliable estimates of viral decay rate were obtained by using the parametric and semiparametric nonlinear mixed‐effects models. Our analysis also indicated that the decay rates estimated by using linear mixed‐effects models should be interpreted differently from those estimated by using nonlinear mixed‐effects models. The semiparametric nonlinear mixed‐effects model is preferred to other models because arbitrary data truncation is not needed. Based on real data analysis and simulation studies, we provide guidelines for estimating viral decay rates from clinical data. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Scaling from individuals to networks in food webs

1.  Food webs, the set of predator–prey interactions in an ecosystem, are a prototypical complex system. Much research to date has concentrated on the use of models to identify and explain the key structural features which characterize food webs.
2.  These models often fall into two general categories: (i) phenomenological models which are built upon a set of heuristic rules in order to explain some empirical observation and (ii) population-level models in which interactions between individuals result in emergent properties for the food web. Both types of models have helped to uncover how food-web structure is a product of factors such as foraging behaviour, prey selection and species' body sizes.
3.  Historically, the two types of models have followed rather different approaches to the problem. Despite the apparent differences, the overlap between the two styles of models is substantial. Examples are highlighted here.
4.  By paying greater attention to both the similarities and differences between the two, we will be better able to demonstrate the ecological insights offered by phenomenological models. This will help us, for example, design experiments which could validate or refute underlying assumptions of the models. By linking models to data, scaling from individuals to networks, we will be closer to understanding the true origins of food-web structure.     

Zero‐inflated spatio‐temporal models for disease mapping

In this paper, our aim is to analyze geographical and temporal variability of disease incidence when spatio‐temporal count data have excess zeros. To that end, we consider random effects in zero‐inflated Poisson models to investigate geographical and temporal patterns of disease incidence. Spatio‐temporal models that employ conditionally autoregressive smoothing across the spatial dimension and B‐spline smoothing over the temporal dimension are proposed. The analysis of these complex models is computationally difficult from the frequentist perspective. On the other hand, the advent of the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm has made the Bayesian analysis of complex models computationally convenient. Recently developed data cloning method provides a frequentist approach to mixed models that is also computationally convenient. We propose to use data cloning, which yields to maximum likelihood estimation, to conduct frequentist analysis of zero‐inflated spatio‐temporal modeling of disease incidence. One of the advantages of the data cloning approach is that the prediction and corresponding standard errors (or prediction intervals) of smoothing disease incidence over space and time is easily obtained. We illustrate our approach using a real dataset of monthly children asthma visits to hospital in the province of Manitoba, Canada, during the period April 2006 to March 2010. Performance of our approach is also evaluated through a simulation study.     

Population HIV-1 dynamics in vivo: applicable models and inferential tools for virological data from AIDS clinical trials

In this paper, we introduce a novel application of hierarchical nonlinear mixed-effect models to HIV dynamics. We show that a simple model with a sum of exponentials can give a good fit to the observed clinical data of HIV-1 dynamics (HIV-1 RNA copies) after initiation of potent antiviral treatments and can also be justified by a biological compartment model for the interaction between HIV and its host cells. This kind of model enjoys both biological interpretability and mathematical simplicity after reparameterization and simplification. A model simplification procedure is proposed and illustrated through examples. We interpret and justify various simplified models based on clinical data taken during different phases of viral dynamics during antiviral treatments. We suggest the hierarchical nonlinear mixed-effect model approach for parameter estimation and other statistical inferences. In the context of an AIDS clinical trial involving patients treated with a combination of potent antiviral agents, we show how the models may be used to draw biologically relevant interpretations from repeated HIV-1 RNA measurements and demonstrate the potential use of the models in clinical decision-making.     

Three-dimensional in vitro tumor models for cancer research and drug evaluation

Cancer occurs when cells acquire genomic instability and inflammation, produce abnormal levels of epigenetic factors/proteins and tumor suppressors, reprogram the energy metabolism and evade immune destruction, leading to the disruption of cell cycle/normal growth. An early event in carcinogenesis is loss of polarity and detachment from the natural basement membrane, allowing cells to form distinct three-dimensional (3D) structures that interact with each other and with the surrounding microenvironment. Although valuable information has been accumulated from traditional in vitro studies in which cells are grown on flat and hard plastic surfaces (2D culture), this culture condition does not reflect the essential features of tumor tissues. Further, fundamental understanding of cancer metastasis cannot be obtained readily from 2D studies because they lack the complex and dynamic cell–cell communications and cell–matrix interactions that occur during cancer metastasis. These shortcomings, along with lack of spatial depth and cell connectivity, limit the applicability of 2D cultures to accurate testing of pharmacologically active compounds, free or sequestered in nanoparticles. To recapitulate features of native tumor microenvironments, various biomimetic 3D tumor models have been developed to incorporate cancer and stromal cells, relevant matrix components, and biochemical and biophysical cues, into one spatially and temporally integrated system. In this article, we review recent advances in creating 3D tumor models employing tissue engineering principles. We then evaluate the utilities of these novel models for the testing of anticancer drugs and their delivery systems. We highlight the profound differences in responses from 3D in vitro tumors and conventional monolayer cultures. Overall, strategic integration of biological principles and engineering approaches will both improve understanding of tumor progression and invasion and support discovery of more personalized first line treatments for cancer patients.     

Using regression trees to predict alpha diversity based upon geographical and habitat characteristics

Different environmental factors act as driving forces of diversity at different scales of analysis; and also the effect of one environmental factor changes as the scale of analysis changes. Most studies rely on multiple regression models, and such models tend to mix-up the effect of all factors and assume that factors effects are additive. We believe that the effect of environment on diversity should be characterized by a hierarchical structure with coarse scale factors, like geographical tropics to poles gradients, defining the envelope of possible diversity conditions, and other more local factors, like habitat structure, being responsible for the fine tuning of diversity. This structure is most efficiently modeled with regression trees. We show that for six habitat types in Greek protected areas regression tree models were able to describe plant species richness based upon environmental factors considerably more efficiently than multiple regression models. More importantly when the models were extrapolated to other sites in Greece, outside their domain, the differences between the predictive ability of the two approaches was magnified. The tree models picked up important ecological characteristics, and a hierarchical structure that used coarse scale factors, like latitude and longitude, for the coarse scale estimate of alpha diversity, and finer scale factors like fragmentation, for the fine-tuning of the estimation. Therefore, we advocate that the regression tree methodology is most appropriate for modeling the relationship between diversity and environmental factors, and the use of the classical regression approaches might be misleading.     

揭示群落结构及其环境响应的联合物种分布模型的研究进展

物种分布模型通常用于基础生态和应用生态研究,用来确定影响生物分布和物种丰富度的因素,量化物种与非生物条件的关系,预测物种对土地利用和气候变化的反应,并确定潜在的保护区.在传统的物种分布模型中,生物的相互作用很少被纳入,而联合物种分布模型(JSDMs)作为近年提出的一种新的可行方法,可以同时考虑环境因素和生物交互作用,因而成为分析生物群落结构和种间相互作用过程的有力工具.JSDMs以物种分布模型(SDMs)为基础,通常采用广义线性回归模型建立物种对环境变量的多变量响应,以随机效应的形式获取物种间的关联,同时结合隐变量模型(LVMs),并基于Laplace近似和马尔科夫蒙脱卡罗模拟的最大似然估计或贝叶斯方法来估算模型参数.本文对JSDMs的产生及理论基础进行归纳总结,重点介绍了不同类型JSDMs的特点及其在现代生态学中的应用,阐述了JSDMs的应用前景、使用过程中存在的问题及发展方向.随着对环境因素与多物种种间关系研究的深入,JSDMs将是今后物种分布模型研究的重点.     

The hierarchical metaregression approach and learning from clinical evidence

The hierarchical metaregression (HMR) approach is a multiparameter Bayesian approach for meta‐analysis, which generalizes the standard mixed effects models by explicitly modeling the data collection process in the meta‐analysis. The HMR allows to investigate the potential external validity of experimental results as well as to assess the internal validity of the studies included in a systematic review. The HMR automatically identifies studies presenting conflicting evidence and it downweights their influence in the meta‐analysis. In addition, the HMR allows to perform cross‐evidence synthesis, which combines aggregated results from randomized controlled trials to predict effectiveness in a single‐arm observational study with individual participant data (IPD). In this paper, we evaluate the HMR approach using simulated data examples. We present a new real case study in diabetes research, along with a new R package called jarbes (just a rather Bayesian evidence synthesis), which automatizes the complex computations involved in the HMR.     

Machine Learning for Detecting Gene-Gene Interactions

Complex interactions among genes and environmental factors are known to play a role in common human disease aetiology. There is a growing body of evidence to suggest that complex interactions are 'the norm' and, rather than amounting to a small perturbation to classical Mendelian genetics, interactions may be the predominant effect. Traditional statistical methods are not well suited for detecting such interactions, especially when the data are high dimensional (many attributes or independent variables) or when interactions occur between more than two polymorphisms. In this review, we discuss machine-learning models and algorithms for identifying and characterising susceptibility genes in common, complex, multifactorial human diseases. We focus on the following machine-learning methods that have been used to detect gene-gene interactions: neural networks, cellular automata, random forests, and multifactor dimensionality reduction. We conclude with some ideas about how these methods and others can be integrated into a comprehensive and flexible framework for data mining and knowledge discovery in human genetics.     

Powerful multilocus tests of genetic association in the presence of gene-gene and gene-environment interactions

In modern genetic epidemiology studies, the association between the disease and a genomic region, such as a candidate gene, is often investigated using multiple SNPs. We propose a multilocus test of genetic association that can account for genetic effects that might be modified by variants in other genes or by environmental factors. We consider use of the venerable and parsimonious Tukey's 1-degree-of-freedom model of interaction, which is natural when individual SNPs within a gene are associated with disease through a common biological mechanism; in contrast, many standard regression models are designed as if each SNP has unique functional significance. On the basis of Tukey's model, we propose a novel but computationally simple generalized test of association that can simultaneously capture both the main effects of the variants within a genomic region and their interactions with the variants in another region or with an environmental exposure. We compared performance of our method with that of two standard tests of association, one ignoring gene-gene/gene-environment interactions and the other based on a saturated model of interactions. We demonstrate major power advantages of our method both in analysis of data from a case-control study of the association between colorectal adenoma and DNA variants in the NAT2 genomic region, which are well known to be related to a common biological phenotype, and under different models of gene-gene interactions with use of simulated data.     

Kinetic models of spike-timing dependent plasticity and their functional consequences in detecting correlations

Spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP) is a type of synaptic modification found relatively recently, but the underlying biophysical mechanisms are still unclear. Several models of STDP have been proposed, and differ by their implementation, and in particular how synaptic weights saturate to their minimal and maximal values. We analyze here kinetic models of transmitter-receptor interaction and derive a series of STDP models. In general, such kinetic models predict progressive saturation of the weights. Various forms can be obtained depending on the hypotheses made in the kinetic model, and these include a simple linear dependence on the value of the weight (“soft bounds”), mixed soft and abrupt saturation (“hard bound”), or more complex forms. We analyze in more detail simple soft-bound models of Hebbian and anti-Hebbian STDPs, in which nonlinear spike interactions (triplets) are taken into account. We show that Hebbian STDPs can be used to selectively potentiate synapses that are correlated in time, while anti-Hebbian STDPs depress correlated synapses, despite the presence of nonlinear spike interactions. This correlation detection enables neurons to develop a selectivity to correlated inputs. We also examine different versions of kinetics-based STDP models and compare their sensitivity to correlations. We conclude that kinetic models generally predict soft-bound dynamics, and that such models seem ideal for detecting correlations among large numbers of inputs.