Greater Sage-Grouse Response to the Physical Footprint of Energy Development

Energy infrastructure and associated habitat loss can lead to reduced reproductive rates for a variety of species including the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Our goal was to refine our understanding of how the physical footprint of energy development relates to sage-grouse nest and brood survival. Our survival analyses were conditional upon the amount of surface disturbance female sage-grouse were exposed to during reproductive stages. We quantified levels of exposure and compared them to the surface disturbance levels of the surrounding area. From 2008–2014, we collected data in 6 study areas in Wyoming, USA, containing 4 primary types of renewable and nonrenewable energy development. Our research focused on press disturbance (i.e., disturbance sustained after initial disturbance and associated with existing energy infrastructure and human activity). Our results suggest exposure to press disturbance during nesting and brood-rearing was related to lower nest and brood survival, which manifested at different spatial scales. Our analysis of nest survival suggested that the likelihood of a successful nest was negatively associated with the amount of press disturbance within an 8-km² area. Broods exposed to any press disturbance within a 1-km² area were less likely to survive compared to broods not exposed to press disturbance. Female sage-grouse consistently used habitat with lower disturbance levels during reproductive periods. Greater than 90% of nest and brood-rearing locations were in habitat with <3% press disturbance within a 2.7-km² area. Our research links surface disturbance associated with press disturbance to reproductive costs incurred by sage-grouse exposed to diverse energy development. Our results demonstrate a pattern of female avoidance of areas where press disturbance was high during nesting and brood-rearing and survival of nests and broods were highest in areas that had the least amount of disturbance. Our findings underscore the importance of minimizing disturbance to maintain viable sage-grouse populations. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Use of Implanted Radiotransmitters to Estimate Survival of Greater Sage-Grouse Chicks

ABSTRACT Reduced chick survival has been implicated in declines of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations. Because monitoring survival of unmarked sage-grouse chicks is difficult, radiotelemetry may be an effective technique to estimate survival rates, identify causes of mortality, and collect ecological data. Previous studies have used subcutaneous implants to attach radiotransmitters to hatchlings of several species of birds with precocial young. Previous researchers who used subcutaneous implants in free-ranging populations removed chicks from the capture location and implanted transmitters at an alternate site. Because logistics precluded removing newly hatched greater sage-grouse chicks from the field, we evaluated a method for implanting transmitters at capture locations. We captured 288 chicks from 52 broods and monitored 286 radiomarked chicks daily for 28 days following capture during May and June 2001–2002. Two (>1%) chicks died during surgery and we did not radiomark them. At the end of the monitoring period, 26 chicks were alive and 212 were dead. Most (98%, 207/212) radiomarked chick mortality occurred < 21 days posthatch and predation (82%, 174/212) was the primary cause of death. Necropsies of 22 radiomarked chicks did not indicate inflammation or infection from implants, and they were not implicated in the death of any chicks. Fate of 48 chicks was unknown because of transmitter loss (n = 16), radio failure (n = 29), and brood mixing (n = 3). Overall, the 28-day chick survival rate was 0.220 (SE = 0.028). We found that mortalities related to the implant procedure and transmitter loss were similar to rates reported by previous researchers who removed chicks from capture sites and implanted transmitters at an alternate location. Subcutaneous implants may be a useful method for attaching transmitters to newly hatched sage-grouse chicks to estimate survival rates, identify causes of mortality, and collect ecological data.     

Factors Affecting Nest Survival of Greater Sage-Grouse in Northcentral Montana

Abstract: We studied greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in northcentral Montana, USA, to examine the relationship between nest success and habitat conditions, environmental variables, and female sage-grouse characteristics. During 2001-2003, we radiomarked 243 female greater sage-grouse, monitored 287 nests, and measured 426 vegetation plots at 4 sites in a 3,200-km² landscape. Nest survival varied with year, grass canopy cover, daily precipitation with a 1-day lag effect, and nesting attempt. In all years, daily survival rate increased on the day of a rain event and decreased the next day. There was temporal variation in nest success both within and among years: success of early (first 28 d of nesting season) nests ranged from 0.238 (SE = 0.080) in 2001 to 0.316 (SE = 0.055) in 2003, whereas survival of late (last 28 d of nesting season) nests ranged from 0.276 (SE = 0.090) in 2001 to 0.418 (SE = 0.055) in 2003. Renests experienced higher survival than first nests. Grass cover was the only important model term that could be managed, but direction and magnitude of the grass effect varied. Site, shrub and forb canopy cover, and Robel pole reading were less useful predictors of nest success; however, temporal and spatial variation in these habitat covariates was low during our study. We note a marked difference between both values and interpretations of apparent nest success, which have been used almost exclusively in the past, and maximum-likelihood estimates used in our study. Annual apparent nest success (0.46) was, on average, 53% higher than maximum-likelihood estimates that incorporate individual, environmental, and habitat covariates. The difference between estimates was variable (range = +8% to +91%). Management of habitats for nesting sage-grouse should focus on increasing grass cover to increase survival of first nests and contribute to favorable conditions for renesting, which should be less likely if survival of first nests increases.     

Survival of Greater Sage-Grouse Chicks and Broods in the Northern Great Basin

ABSTRACT Reduced annual recruitment because of poor habitat quality has been implicated as one of the causative factors in the range-wide decline of sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations since the 1950s. Because chick and brood survival are directly linked to annual recruitment and may be the primary factors that limit sage-grouse population growth, we estimated 28-day survival rates of radiomarked chicks and broods from 2000 to 2003. We examined relationships between survival and several habitat variables measured at brood sites, including food availability (insects and forbs); horizontal cover of sagebrush, grasses, and forbs; and vertical cover of sagebrush and grass. We monitored 506 radiomarked chicks from 94 broods; chick survival was 0.392 (SE = 0.024). We found evidence that both food and cover variables were positively associated with chick survival, including Lepidoptera availability, slender phlox (Phlox gracilis) frequency, total forb cover, and grass cover. The effect of total grass cover on chick survival was dependent on the proportion of short grass. The hazard of an individual chick's death decreased 8.6% (95% CI = −1.0 to 18.3) for each percentage point increase in total grass cover when the proportion of short grass was >70%. Survival of 83 radiomarked broods was 0.673 (SE = 0.055). Lepidoptera availability and slender phlox frequency were the only habitat variables related to brood survival. Risk of total brood loss decreased by 11.8% (95% CI = 1.2–22.5) for each additional Lepidoptera individual and 2.7% (95% CI = −0.4 to 5.8) for each percentage point increase in the frequency of slender phlox found at brood sites. Model selection results revealed that temporal differences in brood survival were associated with variation in the availability of Lepidoptera and slender phlox. Years with high brood survival corresponded with years of high Lepidoptera availability and high slender phlox frequency. These foods likely provided high-quality nutrition for chicks during early growth and development and enhanced survival. Habitat management that promotes Lepidoptera and slender phlox abundance during May and June (i.e., early brood rearing) should have a positive effect on chick and brood survival in the short term and potentially increase annual recruitment.     

Achieving Better Estimates of Greater Sage-Grouse Chick Survival in Utah

Abstract: Declining sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations may be characterized by poor recruitment largely attributed to low chick survival. However, few published studies have explicitly examined factors that influence chick survival. We used a suture method to radiomark 1-2-day-old sage-grouse chicks (n = 150) in 2005-2006 on Parker Mountain in south-central Utah, USA, and monitored their survival to 42 days. We modeled effects of year, hatch date, chick age, brood-female age, brood-mixing, and arthropod abundance on chick survival. Our best model revealed an average survival estimate of 0.50 days to 42 days, which is the highest level ever documented for this long-lived species. Brood-mixing occurred in 21% (31/146) of chicks and 43% (18/42) of broods we studied. Moreover, yearling females had more chicks leave their broods than did adults. We found that survival may be higher among chicks that switch broods compared to those that stayed with their natal mother until fledging. Thus, brood-mixing may be an adaptive strategy leading to increased sage-grouse chick survival and higher productivity, especially among chicks born to yearling females. Our findings also indicate that arthropod abundance may be an important driver of chick survival, particularly during the early brood-rearing period and, therefore, sage-grouse populations may benefit from a management strategy that attempts to increase arthropod abundance via brood habitat management.     

Ecological Factors Influencing Nest Survival of Greater Sage-Grouse in Mono County,California

ABSTRACT We studied nest survival of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in 5 subareas of Mono County, California, USA, from 2003 to 2005 to 1) evaluate the importance of key vegetation variables for nest success, and 2) to compare nest success in this population with other greater sage-grouse populations. We captured and radiotracked females (n = 72) to identify nest sites and monitor nest survival. We measured vegetation at nest sites and within a 10-m radius around each nest to evaluate possible vegetation factors influencing nest survival. We estimated daily nest survival and the effect of explanatory variables on daily nest survival using nest-survival models in Program MARK. We assessed effects on daily nest survival of total, sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), and nonsagebrush live shrub-cover, Robel visual obstruction, the mean of grass residual height and grass residual cover measurements within 10 m of the nest shrub, and area of the shrub, shrub height, and shrub type at the nest site itself. Assuming a 38-day exposure period, we estimated nest survival at 43.4%, with percent cover of shrubs other than sagebrush as the variable most related to nest survival. Nest survival increased with increasing cover of shrubs other than sagebrush. Also, daily nest survival decreased with nest age, and there was considerable variation in nest survival among the 5 subareas. Our results indicate that greater shrub cover and a diversity of shrub species within sagebrush habitats may be more important to sage-grouse nest success in Mono County than has been reported elsewhere.     

Survival Rates of Female Greater Sage-Grouse in Autumn and Winter in Southeastern Oregon

ABSTRACT We estimated survival rates of 135 female greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on 3 study areas in southeastern Oregon, USA during autumn and winter for 3 years. We used known-fate models in Program MARK to test for differences among study areas and years, investigate the potential influence of weather, and compute estimates of overwinter survival. We found no evidence for differences in survival rates among study areas, which was contrary to our original hypothesis. There also were no declines in survival rates during fall-winter, but survival rates varied among years and time within years. Average survival rate from October through February was 0.456 (SE = 0.062). The coefficient of variation for this estimate was 13.6% indicating good precision in our estimates of survival. We found strong evidence for an effect of weather (i.e., mean daily min. temp, extreme min. temp, snow depth) on bi-weekly survival rates of sage-grouse for 2 of the study areas in one year. Extremely low (<-15°C) temperatures over an 8-week period and accumulation of snow had a negative effect on survival rates during the winter of 1990–1991 on the 2 study areas at the higher (>1,500 m) elevations. In contrast, we found no evidence for an influence of weather on the low-elevation study area or during the winters of 1989–1990 and 1991–1992. Extreme weather during winter can cause lower survival of adult female sage-grouse, so managers should be aware of these potential effects and reduce harvest rates accordingly.     

Greater Sage-Grouse Nesting Habitat: The Importance of Managing at Multiple Scales

Abstract: Considering habitat selection at multiple scales is essential to fully understand habitat requirements and management needs for wildlife species of concern. We used a hierarchical information-theoretic approach and variance decomposition techniques to analyze habitat selection using local-scale habitat variables measured in the field and landscape-scale variables derived with a Geographic Information System (GIS) for nesting greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Powder River Basin (PRB), Montana and Wyoming, USA, 2003–2007. We investigated relationships between habitat features that can and cannot be mapped in a GIS to provide insights into interpretation of landscape-scale—only GIS models. We produced models of habitat selection at both local and landscape scales and across scales, yet multiscale models had overwhelming statistical and biological support. Variance decomposition showed that local-scale measures explained the most pure variation (50%) in sage-grouse nesting-habitat selection. Landscape-scale features explained 20% of pure variation and shared 30% with local-scale features. Both local- and landscape-scale habitat features are important in sage-grouse nesting-habitat selection because each scale explained both pure and shared variation. Our landscape-scale model was accurate in predicting priority landscapes where sage-grouse nests would occur and is, therefore, useful in providing landscape context for management decisions. It accurately predicted locations of independent sage-grouse nests (validation R² = 0.99) and showed good discriminatory ability with >90% of nests located within only 40% of the study area. Our landscape-scale model also accurately predicted independent lek locations. We estimated twice the amount of predicted nesting habitat within 3 km of leks compared to random locations in the PRB. Likewise we estimated 1.8 times more predicted nesting habitat within 10 km of leks compared to random locations. These results support predictions of the hotspot theory of lek placement. Local-scale habitat variables that cannot currently be mapped in a GIS strongly influence sage-grouse nest-site selection, but only within priority nesting habitats defined at the landscape scale. Our results indicate that habitat treatments for nesting sage-grouse applied in areas with an unsuitable landscape context are unlikely to achieve desired conservation results.     

Survival,Movements, and Reproduction of Translocated Greater Sage-Grouse in Strawberry Valley,Utah

Abstract Translocations of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have been attempted in 7 states and one Canadian province with very little success. To recover a small remnant population and test the efficacy of sage-grouse translocations, we captured and transported 137 adult female sage-grouse from 2 source populations to a release site in Strawberry Valley, Utah, USA, during March-April 2003–2005. The resident population of sage-grouse in Strawberry Valley was approximately 150 breeding birds prior to the release. We radiomarked each female and documented survival, movements, reproductive effort, flocking with resident grouse, and lek attendance. We used Program MARK to calculate annual survival of translocated females in the first year after release, which averaged 0.60 (95% CI = 0.515-0.681). Movements of translocated females were within current and historic sage-grouse habitat in Strawberry Valley, and we detected no grouse outside of the study area. Nesting propensity for first (newly translocated) and second (surviving) year females was 39% and 73%, respectively. Observed nest success of all translocated females during the study was 67%. By the end of their first year in Strawberry Valley, 100% of the living translocated sage-grouse were in flocks with resident sage-grouse. The translocated grouse attended the same lek as the birds with which they were grouped. In 2006, the peak male count for the only remaining active lek in Strawberry Valley was almost 4 times (135 M) the 6-year pretranslocation (1998–2003) average peak attendance of 36 males (range 24–50 M). Translocations can be an effective management tool to increase small populations of greater sage-grouse when conducted during the breeding season and before target populations have been extirpated.     

Aural and Visual Detection of Greater Sage-Grouse Leks: Implications for Population Trend Estimates

Counts of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) at leks have been used in harvest management, Endangered Species Act listing decisions, and land management policies for over half a century. Lek count sampling methods focus on counting male sage-grouse at known leks, primarily those observed visually from roads or vantage points, but leks are likely missed that are unknown prior to the survey and are difficult to detect while driving between known lek sites. One way to ameliorate this shortfall may be to conduct short point-count surveys at multiple stops along lek-survey routes or while driving between lek counts, thereby detecting newly established or unknown leks. To evaluate the feasibility of this approach, we estimated aural and visual detection probability of active sage-grouse leks during 1-minute point-count surveys at known distances and examined the effects of environmental factors on aural lek detection in southern Idaho, USA, 2016–2017. Our results demonstrate that field observers can aurally detect sage-grouse leks at approximately 3 times greater distances compared to detecting leks visually. The probability of hearing an active lek was highest near the peak of male and female attendance (8 Apr), within an hour of sunrise, on relatively calm and cold days, when the observer was at a higher elevation relative to the lek, and during conditions with no background noise. Detection probability declined with distance and the probability of aural detection was 0.59 at 1 km from a lek when other variables were held at their means. Hence, conducting ≥3 1-minute surveys along a lek route would be expected to detect ≥93% of all leks within 1.5 km of each survey under the average environmental conditions in our study. Our results suggest that surveys could greatly improve detection of unknown or newly established leks and can facilitate a more accurate assessment of sage-grouse population trends through lek counts. Moreover, our results demonstrate how environmental factors influence the detection of leks during surveys, and therefore which variables should be considered for inclusion in any future revisions of lek count protocols or in analyses of lek count data. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Bayesian analysis of discrete survival data with a hidden Markov chain

This paper considers the discrete survival data from a Bayesian point of view. A sequence of the baseline hazard functions, which plays an important role in the discrete hazard function, is modeled with a hidden Markov chain. It is explained how the resultant model is implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The model is illustrated by an application of real data.     

Bayesian Updating of Model-Based Risk Estimates Using Imperfect Public Health Surveillance Data

Model-based estimation of the human health risks resulting from exposure to environmental contaminants can be an important tool for structuring public health policy. Due to uncertainties in the modeling process, the outcomes of these assessments are usually probabilistic representations of a range of possible risks. In some cases, health surveillance data are available for the assessment population over all or a subset of the risk projection period and this additional information can be used to augment the model-based estimates. We use a Bayesian approach to update model-based estimates of health risks based on available health outcome data. Updated uncertainty distributions for risk estimates are derived using Monte Carlo sampling, which allows flexibility to model realistic situations including measurement error in the observable outcomes. We illustrate the approach by using imperfect public health surveillance data on lung cancer deaths to update model-based lung cancer mortality risk estimates in a population exposed to ionizing radiation from a uranium processing facility.     

Catastrophe Bond and Risk Modeling: A Review and Calibration Using Chinese Earthquake Loss Data

Earthquake risks are attracting increased attention as a result of recent catastrophic events such as the Wenchuan earthquake in China. This article aims to select, tailor, and develop loss modeling methods for catastrophic insurance. We review the state-of-the-art approaches in modeling catastrophe losses for catastrophe bonds’ modeling and pricing. The methods are applied to the 1966–2008 losses resulted from the earthquakes in China. Various error measures are proposed for validating catastrophe modeling. Results suggest that the double exponential jump-diffusion model fits the data well.     

MODELING REGIONAL WATERFOWL HARVEST RATES USING MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO

Abstract: We developed models for simultaneous inference on movement and harvest rates, and of factors influencing harvest rates, using band-recovery data and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) modeling. We modeled variation in harvest rates for American black ducks (Anas rubripes) during 1971–1994 using recoveries of ducks banded in 3 breeding regions and recovered in 6 harvest regions in Canada and the United States. Models based on season length or bag limit together with season length, and incorporating a random year- and area-specific effect, were superior to other models as gauged by information criteria, fit statistics, and cross-validation. We used these models to generate posterior predictive distributions for harvest rates as a function of harvest regulations, for application to adaptive harvest management.     

Assessing site-interdependent phylogenetic models of sequence evolution

In recent works, methods have been proposed for applying phylogenetic models that allow for a general interdependence between the amino acid positions of a protein. As of yet, such models have focused on site interdependencies resulting from sequence-structure compatibility constraints, using simplified structural representations in combination with a set of statistical potentials. This structural compatibility criterion is meant as a proxy for sequence fitness, and the methods developed thus far can incorporate different site-interdependent fitness proxies based on other measurements. However, no methods have been proposed for comparing and evaluating the adequacy of alternative fitness proxies in this context, or for more general comparisons with canonical models of protein evolution. In the present work, we apply Bayesian methods of model selection-based on numerical calculations of marginal likelihoods and posterior predictive checks-to evaluate models encompassing the site-interdependent framework. Our application of these methods indicates that considering site-interdependencies, as done here, leads to an improved model fit for all data sets studied. Yet, we find that the use of pairwise contact potentials alone does not suitably account for across-site rate heterogeneity or amino acid exchange propensities; for such complexities, site-independent treatments are still called for. The most favored models combine the use of statistical potentials with a suitably rich site-independent model. Altogether, the methodology employed here should allow for a more rigorous and systematic exploration of different ways of modeling explicit structural constraints, or any other site-interdependent criterion, while best exploiting the richness of previously proposed models.     

A genetic and spatial Bayesian analysis of mastitis resistance

A nationwide health card recording system for dairy cattle was introduced in Norway in 1975 (the Norwegian Cattle Health Services). The data base holds information on mastitis occurrences on an individual cow basis. A reduction in mastitis frequency across the population is desired, and for this purpose risk factors are investigated. In this paper a Bayesian proportional hazards model is used for modelling the time to first veterinary treatment of clinical mastitis, including both genetic and environmental covariates. Sire effects were modelled as shared random components, and veterinary district was included as an environmental effect with prior spatial smoothing. A non-informative smoothing prior was assumed for the baseline hazard, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC) were used for inference. We propose a new measure of quality for sires, in terms of their posterior probability of being among the, say 10% best sires. The probability is an easily interpretable measure that can be directly used to rank sires. Estimating these complex probabilities is straightforward in an MCMC setting. The results indicate considerable differences between sires with regards to their daughters disease resistance. A regional effect was also discovered with the lowest risk of disease in the south-eastern parts of Norway.