A Demographic model for ring-necked ducks breeding in Minnesota

Population models can provide insights into how perturbations of demographic vital rates influence population growth rates (λ) and help prioritize efforts to achieve management goals. Although population models have been developed for numerous duck species, this tool has not been developed for ring-necked ducks (Aythya collaris). Ring-necked ducks are a late-nesting species that may not be surveyed well by the May Waterfowl Survey, which is timed optimally for earlier nesting ducks like the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos). Information specific to ring-necked ducks would help identify important influences on the rate of population growth and the direction of population change. We used data from our own research during 2008–2012, long-term (1975–2016) survey data from northcentral Minnesota, USA, vital rate estimates from the literature, and long-term (1987–2016) banding data to develop a population model for ring-necked ducks. We estimated annual survival and recovery rates of after-hatching-year and hatching-year female ring-necked ducks in Minnesota. Survey results and our matrix models indicated that ring-necked ducks are declining in the forested portion of Minnesota. Thus, we examined a boom-or-bust simulation scenario that might maintain a population through periodic occurrence of exceptional reproductive years in conjunction with high hatching-year survival. Our results indicated that long-term persistence is only expected in this population if reproductive output doubled at the same time that hatching-year survival was at its highest value, or if the population is maintained through immigration. Sensitivity analysis indicated that unit changes in 30-day brood survival will produce the most change in λ in the parameter space observed, although elasticity analysis indicated that proportional changes in annual survival of adult females will produce the largest proportional changes in λ. Management to improve brood survival to increase λ might include improving the habitat quality of brood-rearing lakes, especially those with more open water and less nesting habitat than those used for nesting. Our findings might also help explain disparities between annual breeding waterfowl surveys, which indicate stable or increasing populations, and hunter experiences in the fall. In Minnesota, hunter experiences have not matched expectations based on historical fall numbers and this could occur if regional production declined and fewer young birds were available for harvest. Our findings highlight the need for further study to inform management in this rapidly changing region. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990–2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark–recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised ≥1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (λ) estimated from average vital rates was λ_a = 1.072 with λ_i = 1.288 during colony increase and λ_d = 0.921 (Δλ = 0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Grizzly bear population vital rates and trend in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem,Montana

We estimated grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population vital rates and trend for the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), Montana, between 2004 and 2009 by following radio-collared females and observing their fate and reproductive performance. Our estimates of dependent cub and yearling survival were 0.612 (95% CI = 0.300–0.818) and 0.682 (95% CI = 0.258–0.898). Our estimates of subadult and adult female survival were 0.852 (95% CI = 0.628–0.951) and 0.952 (95% CI = 0.892–0.980). From visual observations, we estimated a mean litter size of 2.00 cubs/litter. Accounting for cub mortality prior to the first observations of litters in spring, our adjusted mean litter size was 2.27 cubs/litter. We estimated the probabilities of females transitioning from one reproductive state to another between years. Using the stable state probability of 0.322 (95% CI = 0.262–0.382) for females with cub litters, our adjusted fecundity estimate (m_x) was 0.367 (95% CI = 0.273–0.461). Using our derived rates, we estimated that the population grew at a mean annual rate of approximately 3% (λ = 1.0306, 95% CI = 0.928–1.102), and 71.5% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations produced estimates of λ > 1.0. Our results indicate an increasing population trend of grizzly bears in the NCDE. Coupled with concurrent studies of population size, we estimate that over 1,000 grizzly bears reside in and adjacent to this recovery area. We suggest that monitoring of population trend and other vital rates using radioed females be continued. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Sensitivity Analyses of a Population Projection Model of Ring-Necked Pheasants

Abstract A large literature exists on population dynamics of ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) in North America, but there has not been an attempt to formulate a matrix model nor a sensitivity analysis of the relationships between vital rates and population finite growth rate (Λ) that can be used to guide management. We summarized demographic data available from a 5-year field study in Iowa, USA, collected in Kossuth County (low composition of perennial habitat) and Palo Alto County (high composition of perennial habitat) into a 2-stage (young and adult) matrix projection model. We estimated Λ₁ (the dominant eigenvalue of the deterministic matrix), the stable age distribution (ω), relative reproductive value vector (n̈), other demographic parameters, and Λ_iid, a bootstrap estimate of growth that includes interannual variation in life history parameters. We analyzed the relative importance of vital rates on population growth rate using sensitivity and elasticity of both matrix elements and lower-level parameters such as winter survival and nest success. We first characterized general life history using averaged data from both areas and all years that yielded Λ₁ = 1.086, and a stable stage distribution of. Minimum success of the initial nesting attempt (H₁) that would maintain Λ ≥ 1 under average conditions was estimated to be 42%. Changes in Λ₁ were most sensitive to survival of chicks during brood rearing (S_B), followed in importance by survival during the subsequent winter (S_W), followed by H₁. We followed the general analyses with analyses that helped us to focus on the differences in the landscapes of northwest Iowa. Λ_iid was ≥1 in only 9% of simulations of data from Kossuth whereas estimated Λ_iid was ≥1 in 88% of simulations from Palo Alto. Our analyses of the relative importance and interactions between S_B, S_W, and total recruitment (M, including H₁ and renesting), if combined with data more specific to a local area, would guide management aimed at affecting multiple life history stages whose relative importance will vary across the landscape.     

Factors influencing rate of decline in a Merriam's wild turkey population

We investigated population growth rate (λ) for a Merriam's wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) population in the northern Black Hills, South Dakota, USA. We constructed and evaluated a females-only matrix population model. Our estimate of asymptotic λ, derived from estimates of vital rates obtained from 2016–2018 was 0.74 (95% CI = 0.60, 0.88), which indicates that the vital rates were inadequate to sustain the population. Elasticity values were highest for changes in adult survival probability followed by, in order, changes in juvenile survival, yearling survival, and adult reproduction. We could only achieve stable or growing populations (i.e., λ ≥ 1) by increasing the probability of adult and yearling survival (holding all other vital rates constant). Estimated adult survival rate in the work reported here was lower than values reported for other populations in the Black Hills; therefore, managing for increased female survival (≥0.68) may be the most practical strategy for promoting wild turkey population growth in this system. We recommend no female harvest during any open turkey season.     

Relative Importance of Vital Rates to Population Dynamics of Wood Ducks

The wood duck (Aix sponsa) is a common and important cavity-nesting duck in North America; however, we know very little about how changes in vital rates influence population growth rate (λ). We used estimates of fertility and survival of female wood ducks from our nest-box studies in South Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia, USA, to create a stage-based matrix population model. We conducted perturbation analyses and ranked elasticity values to examine the relative importance of 17 component vital rates to λ. Female survival is influenced by nest success, so we recognized this female heterogeneity in our analyses. Four vital rates showed the greatest importance to λ. Analytic elasticities were greatest for breeding season and nonbreeding season survival of females that nested successfully, followed by nest success and female recruitment to the breeding population. Differences in female quality were important to λ. Next, we used process variation of vital rates and conducted life-stage simulation analyses (LSA) followed by variance decomposition to determine the amount of variation in λ explained by each vital rate. Female recruitment to the breeding population explained 57.7% of the variation in λ followed by nest success (11.4%), and breeding and nonbreeding season survival of females that nested successfully (9.3% and 9.4%, respectively). Together these 4 vital rates explained 88% of the variation in λ. Mean asymptotic population growth rate (λ = 0.80 ± 0.08 [SD]) from LSA revealed a declining population. Recruitment of females hatched from nest boxes was insufficient to sustain the nest-box population. However, including yearling (SY) females that were produced outside of nest boxes (i.e., immigrants) increased recruitment rates 1.5 to 2 times more than when only SY females recruited from nest boxes were included. Future research that examines how emigration and immigration interact with survival and reproduction to influence local population dynamics of wood ducks will be important for identifying the value of nest-box programs to wood duck conservation and management. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Dynamics of Newly Established Elk Populations

Abstract: The dynamics of newly established elk (Cervus elaphus) populations can provide insights about maximum sustainable rates of reproduction, survival, and increase. However, data used to estimate rates of increase typically have been limited to counts and rarely have included complementary estimates of vital rates. Complexities of population dynamics cannot be understood without considering population processes as well as population states. We estimated pregnancy rates, survival rates, age ratios, and sex ratios for reintroduced elk at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA; combined vital rates in a population projection model; and compared model projections with observed elk numbers and population ratios. Pregnancy rates in January (early in the second trimester of pregnancy) averaged 54.1% (SE = 5.4%) for subadults and 91.0% (SE = 1.7%) for adults, and 91.6% of pregnancies resulted in recruitment at 8 months. Annual survival rates of adult females averaged 0.96 (95% CI = 0.94-0.98) with hunting included and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97-0.99) with hunting excluded from calculations. Our fitted model explained 99.8% of past variation in population estimates and represents a useful new tool for short-term management planning. Although we found no evidence of temporal variation in vital rates, variation in population composition caused substantial variation in projected rates of increase (Λ = 1.20-1.36). Restoring documented hunter harvests and removals of elk by the National Park Service led to a potential rate of Λ = 1.26. Greater rates of increase substantiated elsewhere were within the expected range of chance variation, given our model and estimates of vital rates. Rates of increase realized by small elk populations are too variable to support inferences about habitat quality or density dependence.     

Impact of Spatial and Temporal Variation in Calf Survival on the Growth of Elk Populations

Abstract: The realized impact of a vital rate on population growth (λ) is determined by both the relative influence of the vital rate on λ (elasticity) and its magnitude of variability. We estimated mean survival and reproductive rates in elk (Cervus elaphus) and spatial and temporal variation in these rates from 37 sources located primarily across the Rocky Mountain region and northwestern United States. We removed sampling variance from estimates of process variance both within and across vital-rate data sets using the variance discounting method developed by White (2000). Deterministic elasticities calculated from a population matrix model parameterized with these mean vital rates ranked adult female survival (e_Scow = 0.869) much higher than calf survival (e_Scalf = 0.131). However, process variance in calf survival was >11 times greater than process variance in female survival across data sets and 10 times greater on average within studies. We conducted Life-Stage Simulation Analysis to incorporate both vital-rate elasticity patterns and empirical estimates of variability to identify those vital rates most influential in elk population dynamics. The overwhelming magnitude of variation in calf survival explained 75% of the variation in the population growth rates generated from 1,000 matrix replicates, compared to just 16% of the variation in λ explained by variation in female survival. Variation in calf survival greatly impacts elk population growth and calls into question the utility of classical elasticity analysis alone for guiding elk management. These results also suggest that the majority of interannual variability that wildlife managers document in late-winter and spring elk surveys is attributable to variation in calf survival over the previous year and less influenced by variation in the harvest of females during the preceding autumn. To meet elk population size objectives, managers should consider the inherent variation in calf survival, and its apparent sensitivity to management, in addition to female harvest.     

Demographics of an Experimentally Released Population of Elk in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

ABSTRACT We assessed the potential for reestablishing elk (Cervus elaphus) in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP), USA, by estimating vital rates of experimentally released animals from 2001 to 2006. Annual survival rates for calves ranged from 0.333 to 1.0 and averaged 0.592. Annual survival for subadult and adult elk (i.e., ≥ 1 yr of age) ranged from 0.690 to 0.933, depending on age and sex. We used those and other vital rates to model projected population growth and viability using a stochastic individual-based model. The annual growth rate (λ) of the modeled population over a 25-year period averaged 0.996 and declined from 1.059 the first year to 0.990 at year 25. The modeled population failed to attain a positive 25-year mean growth rate in 46.0% of the projections. Poor calf recruitment was an important determinant of low population growth. Predation by black bears (Ursus americanus) was the dominant calf mortality factor. Most of the variance of growth projections was due to demographic variation resulting from the small population size (n = 61). Management actions such as predator control may help increase calf recruitment, but our projections suggest that the GSMNP elk population may be at risk for some time because of high demographic variation.     

Evaluation of an Aerial Survey to Estimate Abundance of Wintering Ducks in Mississippi

Abstract: Researchers have successfully designed aerial surveys that provided precise estimates of wintering populations of ducks over large physiographic regions, yet few conservation agencies have adopted these probability-based sampling designs for their surveys. We designed and evaluated an aerial survey to estimate abundance of wintering mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), dabbling ducks (tribe Anatini) other than mallards, diving ducks (tribes Aythini, Mergini, and Oxyurini), and total ducks in western Mississippi, USA. We used design-based sampling of fixed width transects to estimate population indices (Ǐ), and we used model-based methods to correct population indices for visibility bias and estimate population abundance (Ň) for 14 surveys during winters 2002–2004. Correcting for bias increased estimates of mallards, other dabbling ducks, and diving ducks by an average of 40–48% among all surveys and contributed 48–61% of the estimated variance of Ň. However, mean-squared errors were consistently less for Ň than Ǐ. Estimates of Ň met our goals for precision (CV ≤ 15%) in 7 of 14 surveys for mallards, 5 surveys for other dabbling ducks, no surveys for diving ducks, and 10 surveys for total ducks. Generally, we estimated more mallards and other dabbling ducks in mid- and late winter (Jan-Feb) than early winter (Nov-Dec) and determined that population indices from the late 1980s were nearly 3 times greater than those from our study. We developed a method to display relative densities of ducks spatially as an additional application of survey data. Our study advanced methods of estimating abundance of wintering waterfowl, and we recommend this design for continued monitoring of wintering ducks in western Mississippi and similar physiographic regions.     

Survival and Recovery Rate of Canada Geese Staging in Interior Alaska

Abstract: Lesser Canada geese (Branta canadensis parvipes) are indistinguishable from other subspecies of small Canada geese on the wintering grounds using current survey methods. Consequently, managers are unable to adequately measure their abundance. Without direct estimates of abundance, researchers often use estimates of vital rates that influence abundance (e.g., annual survival) to monitor potential impact of harvest on the population. Based on capture and re-sighting data records of 567 geese marked from 1994 through 1998, we calculated annual survival and recovery rates for different age and sex classes of white-cheeked geese staging in interior Alaska. We compared those survival and recovery rates with those of other neck-collared white-cheeked geese. The best approximating model allowed survival to vary by age class while holding Seber's recovery probability (r̂) constant over sex, age class, and time. We estimated annual survival to be 0.49 (SE = 0.05) for hatch-year geese and 0.68 (SE = 0.03) for after-hatch-year geese based on the weighted average of all models with a change in Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size and lack of fit < 4. Estimates of annual survival of white-cheeked geese in this study are among the lowest and recovery estimates are among the highest for migratory populations of neck-collared geese. Low survival estimates of Canada geese in our study suggest that harvest rates may be higher than in many other populations. Surveys to estimate abundance or other population parameters such as reproductive success and recruitment are necessary to determine whether this population is self-sustaining. Furthermore, we recommend monitoring abundance and harvest of small white-cheeked geese east and west of the Cascade Mountain Range separately to better determine harvest pressure on white-cheeked geese wintering east of the Cascades.     

Postfledging Survival of Laysan Ducks

ABSTRACT Precise and unbiased estimates of demographic parameters are necessary for effective population monitoring and to parameterize population models (e.g., population viability analyses). This is especially important for endangered species, where recovery planning and managers' decisions can influence species persistence. In this study, we used mark—recapture methods to estimate survival of fledged juveniles (hatch-yr [HY]) and adult (after-hatch-yr [AHY]) Laysan ducks (Anas laysanensis), an endangered anatid restricted to Laysan Island in the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. To better understand population dynamics, we examined how survival varied as a function of Laysan duck density during 1998–2004. Using random effects models, we also quantified process variation in survival, thereby quantifying the appropriate source of variation for future population models. The dataset supported variation in survival that was time (yr), age (AHY vs. HY), and sex specific. Due to small sample sizes, we did not examine time specificity in the survival of HY ducks. Survival of HY ducks was 0.832 (SE = 0.087) for females (n = 21) and 0.999 (SE < 0.001) for males (n = 15) during 1998–2001. Trends in time and density lacked support as sources of variation in the survival of AHY ducks during 1998–2004. After-hatch-year survival ranged from 0.792 (SE = 0.033) to 0.999 (SE < 0.001). Where we modeled survival as a random effect, annual survival for AHY females was 0.881 (SE = 0.017) and process variation (σ_s) was 0.034. For AHY males, annual survival (μ_s) was 0.906 (SE = 0.019) and process variation (σ_s) was 0.040. This information will improve existing population viability analysis models for Laysan ducks. We believe that monitoring the source and translocation populations will be paramount for increasing our understanding of Laysan duck dynamics, recovery planning, and population management.     

Fisher Survival in Eastern Ontario

Abstract: Fishers (Martes pennanti) have recolonized eastern Ontario, Canada, but little is known about the survival of this harvested population. We estimated fisher survival and cause-specific mortality in Leeds and Grenville County, Ontario, from 2003–2005. The overall 2-year survival rate (95% CI) was 0.35 (0.21-0.56, n = 59). We attributed observed mortality rates mainly to natural causes (28.6%) and nuisance trapping (21.4%). Given reported recruitment rates, our estimated fisher mortality has likely led to population declines in the study area, especially during 2003. Thus, we do not recommend an increase in fisher harvest quotas in the study area at this time.     

Population Dynamics of Breeding Mallards in the Great Lakes States

Abstract: Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations in the United States portion of the Great Lakes region increased through the 1990s but have since declined. To promote sustainable growth of this population, managers need to understand how perturbation of vital rates will affect annual population growth rate (Λ). We developed a stage-based model representing the female mallard population in the Great Lakes using vital rates generated from a landscape-level study documenting reproductive parameters from 2001 to 2003. We conducted perturbation analyses (i.e., sensitivity analyses) to identify vital rates that most influence Λ and variance decomposition analyses to determine the proportion of variation in Λ explained by variation in each vital rate. Perturbation analyses indicated that Λ was most sensitive to changes in nonbreeding survival, duckling survival, and nest success. Therefore, changes in these vital rates would be expected to result in the greatest ΔΛ. Process variation in breeding season parameters accounted for 63% of variation in Λ. Breeding season parameters explaining the most variation were duckling survival (32%) and nest success (16%). Survival of adult females outside the breeding season accounted for 36% of variation in Λ. Harvest derivation, high harvest, and high sensitivity of Λ to nonbreeding survival for Great Lakes female mallards suggests there is a strong potential for managing the Great Lakes mallard population via harvest management. Because Λ was highly sensitive to changes in duckling survival, we suggest programs that emphasize wetland protection, enhancement, and restoration as a management strategy to improve population growth for breeding mallards.     

Climatic drivers of pinyon mouse Peromyscus truei population dynamics in a resource-restricted environment

Highly variable patterns in temperature and rainfall events can have pronounced consequences for small mammals in resource-restricted environments. Climatic factors can therefore play a crucial role in determining the fates of small mammal populations. We applied Pradel's temporal symmetry model to a 21-year capture–recapture dataset to study population dynamics of the pinyon mouse (Peromyscus truei) in a semi-arid mixed oak woodland in California, USA. We examined time-, season- and sex-specific variation in realized population growth rate (λ) and its constituent vital rates, apparent survival and recruitment. We also tested the influence of climatic factors on these rates. Overall monthly apparent survival was 0.81 ± 0.004 (estimate ± SE). Survival was generally higher during wetter months (October–May) but varied over time. Monthly recruitment rate was 0.18 ± 0.01, ranging from 0.07 ± 0.01 to 0.63 ± 0.07. Although population growth rate (λ) was highly variable, overall monthly growth rate was close to 1.0, indicating a stable population during the study period (λ ± SE = 0.99 ± 0.01). Average temperature and its variability negatively affected survival, whereas rainfall positively influenced survival and recruitment rates, and thus the population growth rate. Our results suggest that seasonal rainfall and variation in temperature at the local scale, rather than regional climatic patterns, more strongly affected vital rates in this population. Discerning such linkages between species' population dynamics and environmental variability are critical for understanding local and regional impacts of global climate change, and for gauging viability and resilience of populations in resource-restricted environments.     

Estimating Survival for Elusive Juvenile Pond-Breeding Salamanders

Juvenile vital rates have important effects on population dynamics for many species, but this demographic is often difficult to locate and track. As such, we frequently lack reliable estimates of juvenile survival, which are necessary for accurately assessing population stability and potential management approaches to conserve biodiversity. We estimated survival rates for elusive juveniles of 3 species, the ringed salamander (Ambystoma annulatum), spotted salamander (A. maculatum), and small-mouthed salamander (A. texanum), using 2 approaches. First, we conducted an 11-month (2016–2017) mark-recapture study within semi-natural enclosures and used Bayesian Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to estimate survival and recapture probabilities. Second, we inferred the expected annual juvenile survival rate given published vital rates for pre-metamorphic and adult ambystomatids assuming stable population growth. For all 3 species, juvenile survival probabilities were constant across recapture occasions, whereas recapture probability estimates were time-dependent. Further, survival and recapture probabilities among study species were similar. Post-study sampling revealed that the initial study period median estimate of annual survival probability (0.39) underestimated the number of salamanders known alive at 11 months. We therefore appended approximately 1 year of opportunistic data, which produced a median annual survival probability of 0.50, encompassing salamanders that we knew to have been alive. Calculation from literature values suggested a mean annual terrestrial juvenile ambystomatid survival probability of 0.49. Similar results among our approaches indicated that juvenile survival estimates for the study species were robust and likely comparable to rates in nature. These estimates can now be confidently applied to research, monitoring, and management efforts for the study species and ecologically similar taxa. Our findings indicated that similarly robust vital rate estimates for subsets of ecologically and phylogenetically similar species can provide reasonable surrogate demographic information that can be used to reveal key factors influencing population viability for data-deficient species. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Age-Specific Survival and Probable Causes of Mortality in Female Lesser Prairie-Chickens

ABSTRACT Long-term population declines and habitat reductions have increased concern over the status of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus). Robust estimates of demographic parameters are essential for identifying population declines and planning effective management. We evaluated the effects of age and season on the survival of female lesser prairie-chickens at 2 sites in southwestern Kansas, USA. Using telemetry data from a 7-year field study (from 1997 to 2003), we estimated seasonal (Apr—Sep) and annual (Apr—Mar) survival. We also examined daily survival rates of females attending nests during the 26-day incubation period and young during the 14-day early brood-rearing period. We evaluated the probable mortality causes of radiomarked birds by examining evidence at recovery sites. We captured 227 female lesser prairie-chickens (87 yearlings, 117 ad, and 23 age undetermined) and fitted them with radiotransmitters. Estimates of 12-month survival were lower among yearlings (Ŝ₁₂ = 0.429, SE = 0.117) and adults at site I (Ŝ₁₂ > = 0.302, SE = 0.080) than among yearlings (Ŝ₁₂ = 0.588, SE = 0.100) and adults at site II (Ŝ₁₂ > = 0.438, SE = 0.083). The patterns in timing of mortality and age-specific 6-month survival were consistent with those of 12-month estimates at site I from 1998 to 2002, with a peak in mortality during May and June. Females tending to nests or to prefledged chicks had lower daily survival (DŜR_tend = 0.993, SE = 0.001) than females not involved in these activities (DŜR_{failedbreeder} = 0.997, SE = 0.002). We recorded 92 mortalities from April 1997 to March 2003, and 59% and 11% were attributed to predation by mammals and raptors, respectively. Our research suggests that predation during the nesting season can have a major impact on lesser prairie-chicken demography, and conservation efforts should focus on enhancing female survival during the nesting and brood-rearing seasons.     

Vital rates of two small populations of brown bears in Canada and range‐wide relationship between population size and trend

Identifying mechanisms of population change is fundamental for conserving small and declining populations and determining effective management strategies. Few studies, however, have measured the demographic components of population change for small populations of mammals (<50 individuals). We estimated vital rates and trends in two adjacent but genetically distinct, threatened brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations in British Columbia, Canada, following the cessation of hunting. One population had approximately 45 resident bears but had some genetic and geographic connectivity to neighboring populations, while the other population had <25 individuals and was isolated. We estimated population‐specific vital rates by monitoring survival and reproduction of telemetered female bears and their dependent offspring from 2005 to 2018. In the larger, connected population, independent female survival was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.96–1.00) and the survival of cubs in their first year was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.62–0.95). In the smaller, isolated population, independent female survival was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.64–0.93) and first‐year cub survival was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.11–0.67). Reproductive rates did not differ between populations. The large differences in age‐specific survival estimates resulted in a projected population increase in the larger population (λ = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04–1.13) and population decrease in the smaller population (λ = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.72–0.95). Low female survival in the smaller population was the result of both continued human‐caused mortality and an unusually high rate of natural mortality. Low cub survival may have been due to inbreeding and the loss of genetic diversity common in small populations, or to limited resources. In a systematic literature review, we compared our population trend estimates with those reported for other small populations (<300 individuals) of brown bears. Results suggest that once brown bear populations become small and isolated, populations rarely increase and, even with intensive management, recovery remains challenging.     

Survival of Wood Duck Ducklings and Broods in Mississippi and Alabama

ABSTRACT Although North American wood ducks (Aix sponsa) are well-studied throughout their range, researchers know little about demographic and environmental factors influencing survival of ducklings and broods, which is necessary information for population management. We studied radiomarked female and duckling wood ducks that used nest boxes and palustrine wetlands at Noxubee National Wildlife Refuge (NNWR) in Mississippi, USA, in 1996–1999, and riverine wetlands of the Tennessee-Tombigbee Rivers and Waterway (TTRW) system in Alabama in 1998–1999. We estimated survival of ducklings and broods and evaluated potentially important predictors of duckling survival, including age and body mass of brood-rearing females, hatch date of ducklings, duckling mass, brood size at nest departure, inter-day travel distance by ducklings, site and habitat use, and daily minimum air temperature and precipitation. At NNWR, survival of 300 radiomarked ducklings ranged from 0.15 (95% CI = 0.04-0.27) to 0.24 (95% CI = 0.13-0.38) and was 0.21 (95% CI = 0.15-0.28) for 1996–1999. Our overall estimate of brood survival was 0.64 (n = 91; 95% CI = 0.54-0.73). At TTRW, survival of 129 radiomarked ducklings was 0.29 in 1998 (95% CI = 0.20-0.41) and 1999 (95% CI = 0.13-0.45) and was 0.29 (95% CI = 0.20-0.40) for 1998–1999. Our overall estimate of brood survival was 0.71 (n = 38; 95% CI = 0.56-0.85). At NNWR, models that included all predictor variables best explained variation in duckling survival. Akaike weight (w_i) for the best model was 0.81, suggesting it was superior to other models (<0.01 < w_i < 0.18). We detected 4 competing models for duckling survival at TTRW. Inter-day distance traveled by ducklings was important as this variable appeared in all 4 models; duckling survival was positively related to this variable. Patterns of habitat-related survival were similar at both study areas. Ducklings in broods that used scrub-shrub habitats disjunct from wetlands containing aggregations of nest boxes had greater survival probabilities than birds remaining in wetlands with such nest structures. Managers may increase local wood duck recruitment by promoting availability of suitable brood habitats (e.g., scrub-shrub wetlands) without aggregations of nest boxes that may attract predators and by dispersing nest boxes amid or adjacent to these habitats. We did not determine an optimal density of nest boxes relative to local or regional population goals, which remains important research and conservation needs.     

Population Genetics of a Translocated Population of Mottled Ducks and Allies

Translocating species is an important management tool to establish or expand the range of species. Success of translocations requires an understanding of potential consequences, including whether a sufficient number of individuals were used to minimize founder effects and if interspecific hybridization poses a threat. We provide an updated and comprehensive genetic assessment of a 1970s–1980s translocation and now established mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) population in South Carolina, USA. In addition to examining the population genetics of these mottled ducks, we simulated expected genetic assignments for generational hybrids (F1–F10), permitting formal purity assignment across samples to identify true hybrids and establish hybridization rates. In addition to wild mallards (A. platyrhynchos), we tested for presence of hybrids with migrant American black ducks (A. rubripes) and released domestic game-farm mallards (A. p. domesticus). We used wild reference populations of North American mallard-like ducks and sampled game-farm mallards from 2 sites in South Carolina that could potentially interbreed with mottled ducks. Despite 2 different subspecies of mottled duck (Florida [A. f. fulvigula] and the Western Gulf Coast [A. f. maculatlus]) used in original translocations, we determined the gene pool of the Western Gulf Coast mottled duck was overwhelmingly represented in South Carolina's current population. We found no evidence of founder effects or inbreeding and concluded the original translocation of 1,285 mottled ducks was sufficient to maintain current genetic diversity. We identified 7 hybrids, including an F1 and 3 late-staged (i.e., F2–F3 backcrosses) mottled duck × black duck hybrids, 1 F2-mottled duck backcrossed with a wild mallard, and 2 F3-mottled ducks introgressed with game-farm mallard. We estimated a 15% hybridization rate in our mottled duck dataset; however, the general lack of F1 and intermediate hybrids were inconsistent with scenarios of high hybridization rates or presence of a hybrid swarm. Instead, our results suggested a scenario of infrequent interspecific hybridization between South Carolina's mottled ducks and congeners. We concluded that South Carolina's mottled duck population is sufficiently large now to absorb current hybridization rates because 85% of sampled mottled ducks were pure. These results demonstrate the importance in managing and maintaining large parental populations to counter hybridization. As such, future population management of mottled ducks in South Carolina will benefit from increased geographical and continued sampling to monitor hybridization rates with closely related congeners. We also suggest that any future translocations of mottled ducks to coastal South Carolina should originate from the Western Gulf Coast. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.