Contrasting Patterns of Demography and Population Viability Among Gopher Tortoise Populations in Alabama

Population viability analyses are useful tools to predict abundance and extinction risk for imperiled species. In southeastern North America, the federally threatened gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) is a keystone species in the diverse and imperiled longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem, and researchers have suggested that tortoise populations are declining and characterized by high extinction risk. We report results from a 30-year demographic study of gopher tortoises in southern Alabama (1991–2020), where 3 populations have been stable and 3 others have declined. To better understand the demographic vital rates associated with stable and declining tortoise populations, we used a multi-state hierarchical mark-recapture model to estimate sex- and stage-specific patterns of demographic vital rates at each population. We then built a predictive population model to project population dynamics and evaluate extinction risk in a population viability context. Population structure did not change significantly in stable populations, but juveniles became less abundant in declining populations over 30 years. Apparent survival varied by age, sex, and site; adults had higher survival than juveniles, but female survival was substantially lower in declining populations than in stable ones. Using simulations, we predicted that stable populations with high female survival would persist over the next 100 years but sites with lower female survival would decline, become male-biased, and be at high risk of extirpation. Stable populations were most sensitive to changes in apparent survival of adult females. Because local populations varied greatly in vital rates, our analysis improves upon previous demographic models for northern populations of gopher tortoises by accounting for population-level variation in demographic patterns and, counter to previous model predictions, suggests that small tortoise populations can persist when habitat is managed effectively. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Total Counts Versus Line Transects for Estimating Abundance of Small Gopher Tortoise Populations

Abstract: Status and trends of gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) populations are a critical information need for natural resource managers, researchers, and policy makers. Many tortoise populations are small and isolated, which can present challenges for deriving population estimates. Our objective was to compare abundance and density estimates for a small tortoise population derived using a total burrow count versus estimates obtained with line transect distance sampling (LTDS) using repeated surveys. We also compared results of the 2 survey methods using standard burrow-to-tortoise correction factors versus assessing occupancy of all burrows with a camera scope. In addition, we compared LTDS data obtained using a compass and measuring tape to define transects to those obtained using a Global Positioning System (GPS) and Personal Data Assistant (PDA) field computer to navigate transects. Line transect distance sampling with repeated surveys (both with a measuring tape and compass and with a GPS—PDA) yielded sufficient observations of tortoises to calculate population estimates. From 18% to 31% of burrows were occupied by tortoises as determined with the burrow camera. We found 25 burrows during the LTDS survey that we did not find in the total count survey, which demonstrated that the assumption of 100% detection for the total count was not met; hence, density or abundance measurements derived with this method were underestimates. We recommend using GPS—PDA technology, scoping all burrows detected, and using LTDS with repeated surveys to estimate abundance and density for small gopher tortoise populations.     

Multiple paternity and breeding system in the gopher tortoise, Gopherus polyphemus

Little is known about the reproductive behaviors and the actual outcomes of mating attempts in the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus). We examined the mating system and reproductive behaviors of a population of gopher tortoises in central Florida. Using microsatellite markers, we assigned fathers to the offspring of seven clutches and determined that multiple fathers were present in two of the seven clutches examined. We found that gopher tortoises exhibited a promiscuous mating system with larger males fertilizing the majority of clutches. The advantage of larger males over smaller males in fertilizing females may be a result of larger males winning access to females in aggressive bouts with other males or larger males may be more attractive to females. Clutches produced by larger females tended to be sired by a single male, whereas clutches of smaller females tended to be sired by multiple males.     

Waif Gopher Tortoise Survival and Site Fidelity Following Translocation

Gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) are among the most commonly translocated reptiles. Waif tortoises are animals frequently of unknown origin that have been displaced from the wild and often held in human possession for various reasons and durations. Although there are risks associated with any translocation, waif tortoises are generally excluded from translocation projects because of heightened concerns of introducing pathogens and uncertainty about the post-release survival of these individuals. If these risks could be managed, waif tortoises could have conservation value because they can provide the needed numbers to stabilize populations. In the early 1990s, the discovery of an isolated population of gopher tortoises (≤15 individuals) near Aiken, South Carolina, USA, prioritized establishment of the Aiken Gopher Tortoise Heritage Preserve (AGTHP). Because of the population's need for augmentation and the site's isolation from other tortoise populations, the AGTHP provided the opportunity to evaluate the post-release survival of translocated waif tortoises without compromising a viable population. Since 2006, >260 waif tortoises have been introduced to the preserve. Using a Cormack-Jolly-Seber modeling framework to analyze release records and capture histories from trapping efforts in 2017 and 2018, we estimated the long-term apparent survival and site fidelity of this population composed largely of waif tortoises. We estimated annual apparent survival probabilities to be high (≥0.90) for subadult, adult male, and adult female tortoises, and these rates were similar to those reported for wild-to-wild translocated gopher tortoises and those from unmanipulated populations. Of the tortoises recaptured within the boundaries of the preserve, 75% were located within 400 m of their release location. These results suggest that waif tortoises could be an important resource in reducing the extirpation risk of isolated populations. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Fire Management Effects on Long-Term Gopher Tortoise Population Dynamics

Long-term datasets are required to understand the response of long-lived organisms (e.g., gopher tortoises [Gopherus polyphemus]) to management actions, such as prescribed burns. Our objective was to estimate the effects of prescribed burning on gopher tortoise population dynamics over decadal time frames at Fort Stewart Army Reserve, southeastern Georgia, USA. We captured and marked adult tortoises from 1994–2020. In addition, since the early 1990s, managers at Fort Stewart collected spatial records of prescribed burns; thus, we could compare demography of the population to prescribed burning. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model (open population Jolly-Seber model) to estimate population parameters (emigration and survival, immigration and recruitment, and adult abundance) and their relationships with years since burn. We observed opposing responses to years since burn at 2 sites: abundance and the probability of staying (survival plus not emigrating) increased within 1 site when it had been more recently burned (F zones), but abundance and probability of staying in a second site increased when it had been longer since the site was burned (E zones). Some of these effects were weak but indicative of different responses to burning between the sites. Although the sites experienced similar burning regimes, they differed substantially in other habitat features: the F zones had almost twice the tree cover and lower soil sand composition, indicating that tortoise population responses to burning depend on habitat context. We inferred that the primary mechanism for demographic responses to years since burn was likely emigrating adults, which indicates the need for more detailed movement data. Our results demonstrate that gopher tortoise population responses to prescribed burning are complex, context dependent, and primarily influenced by tortoise movements. Therefore, prescribed burn plans may best accommodate spatially dynamic tortoise populations when they create spatial heterogeneity in burn ages within the range of typical tortoise movements. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Intraspecific phylogeography of the gopher tortoise, Gopherus polyphemus: RFLP analysis of amplified mtDNA segments

The slow rate of mtDNA evolution in turtles poses a limitation on the levels of intraspecific variation detectable by conventional restriction fragment surveys. We examined mtDNA variation in the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) using an alternative restriction assay, one in which PCR-amplified segments of the mitochondrial genome were digested with tetranucleotide-site endonucleases. Restriction fragment polymorphisms representing four amplified regions were analysed to evaluate population genetic structure among 112 tortoises throughout the species' range. Thirty-six haplotypes were identified, and three major geographical assemblages (Eastern, Western, and Mid-Florida) were resolved by UPGMA and parsimony analyses. Eastern and Western assemblages abut near the Apalachicola drainage, whereas the Mid-Florida assemblage appears restricted to the Brooksville Ridge. The Eastern/Western assemblage boundary is remarkably congruent with phylogeographic profiles for eight additional species from the southeastern U.S., representing both freshwater and terrestrial realms.     

Population Genetic Assignment of Confiscated Gopher Tortoises

Abstract As gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) increasingly become threatened throughout their range in Florida, USA, the need for management and conservation will intensify. Here we evaluate the forensic applicability of genetic assignment tests based on microsatellite genotypic data to 1) accurately assign individuals in our genetic database to the sample location or population of origin and 2) determine the origin of 6 confiscated tortoises. Overall, we could correctly assign 90% of the individuals in the database to their population of origin, but we were unable to determine the source of the confiscated tortoises. However, these individuals are unlikely to have come from any of our sampled sites and all 6 may have come from the same population. This approach can be used by law enforcement personnel to identify the origin of confiscated tortoises as well as by developers and wildlife managers to determine the genetic appropriateness of potential recipient populations when it is necessary to relocate individuals.     

Kinship,inbreeding and fine‐scale spatial structure influence gut microbiota in a hindgut‐fermenting tortoise

Herbivorous vertebrates rely on complex communities of mutualistic gut bacteria to facilitate the digestion of celluloses and hemicelluloses. Gut microbes are often convergent based on diet and gut morphology across a phylogenetically diverse group of mammals. However, little is known about microbial communities of herbivorous hindgut‐fermenting reptiles. Here, we investigate how factors at the individual level might constrain the composition of gut microbes in an obligate herbivorous reptile. Using multiplexed 16S rRNA gene sequencing, we characterized the faecal microbial community of a population of gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) and examined how age, genetic diversity, spatial structure and kinship influence differences among individuals. We recovered phylotypes associated with known cellulolytic function, including candidate phylum Termite Group 3, suggesting their importance for gopher tortoise digestion. Although host genetic structure did not explain variation in microbial composition and community structure, we found that fine‐scale spatial structure, inbreeding, degree of relatedness and possibly ontogeny shaped patterns of diversity in faecal microbiomes of gopher tortoises. Our findings corroborate widespread convergence of faecal‐associated microbes based on gut morphology and diet and demonstrate the role of spatial and demographic structure in driving differentiation of gut microbiota in natural populations.     

Salmonella from gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) in south Georgia

From 2002 to 2006, gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) were collected at Moody Air Force Base, Lowndes/Lanier counties, Georgia, USA, and opportunistically surveyed for the presence of Salmonella species. Four of 155 (2.6%) cloacal swabs collected from 80 tortoises were positive for the presence of Salmonella enterica, and the following serovars were identified: Give, Hartford, Javiana, and Luciana. Female tortoises (5%) were infected at a rate similar to male tortoises (5%). All isolates were obtained from adult tortoises (n = 73); subadults (n = 7) were all negative. Each isolated serovar is a potential human pathogen, suggesting appropriate precautions should be emphasized when handling these animals.     

Low survival rate and high predation in the African hingeback tortoise Kinixys spekii

Live and dead Kinixys spekii were collected in the Sengwa Wildlife Research Area, Zimbabwe over a 12‐year period. Live tortoises were sexable at a midline plastron length of 100 mm; females were considered sexually mature at 140 mm (reached by age 9 years) and males at 120 mm (at age 7 years). Adult females were significantly larger than males, on average by 14 mm in length and by 1.43 times in mass. Mark–recapture analysis in a 2 km² area showed a population density of sexable tortoises of 0.16 ha^?1. The survival rate was estimated by recaptures, by the frequency distribution of age at death, and by the mean age of live tortoises, and averaged 0.74 year^?1. Seventy‐seven to 89% of dead tortoises showed evidence of predation, depending on the criteria used. Damage occurred in characteristic forms, loss of the front or rear of the plastron, or holes in the carapace and plastron, which were attributed to predation by mammals and ground hornbills, respectively. K. spekii had similar body size and sexual size dimorphism to Mediterranean tortoises (Testudo), but population density was much lower and the mortality rate was twice as high, probably due to the abundant African predators. High mortality was offset by a rate of juvenile growth twice that of Testudo.     

The Catastrophic Decline of Tortoises at a Fenced Natural Area

Agassiz’s desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii), a threatened species of the southwestern United States, has severely declined to the point where 76% of populations in critical habitat (Tortoise Conservation Areas) are below viability. The potential for rapid recovery of wild populations is low because females require 12–20 years to reach reproductive maturity and produce few eggs annually. We report on a 34-year mark-recapture study of tortoises initiated in 1979 at the Desert Tortoise Research Natural Area in the western Mojave Desert, California, USA, and provide substantive data on challenges faced by the species. In 1980, the United States Congress designated the Research Natural Area and protected the land from recreational vehicles, livestock grazing, and mining with a wildlife-permeable fence. The 7.77-km² study area, centered on interpretive facilities, included land both within the Natural Area and outside the fence. We expected greater benefits to accrue to the tortoises and habitat inside compared to outside. Our objectives were to conduct a demographic study, analyze and model changes in the tortoise population and habitat, and compare the effectiveness of fencing to protect populations and habitat inside the fence versus outside, where populations and habitat were unprotected. We conducted surveys in spring in each of 7 survey years from 1979, when the fence was under construction, through 2012. We compared populations inside to those outside the fence by survey year for changes in distribution, structure by size and relative age, sex ratios, death rates of adults, and causes of death for all sizes of tortoises. We used a Bayesian implementation of a Jolly Seber model for mark-recapture data. We modeled detection, density, growth and transition of tortoises to larger size-age classes, movements from inside the protective fence to outside and vice versa, and survival. After the second and subsequent survey years, we added surveys to monitor vegetation and habitat changes, conduct health assessments, and collect data on counts of predators and predator sign. At the beginning of the study, counts and densities for all sizes of tortoises were high, but densities were approximately 24% higher inside the fence than outside. By 2002, the low point in densities, densities had declined 90% inside the fence and 95% outside. Between 2002 and 2012, the population inside the fence showed signs of improving with a 54% increase in density. Outside the fence, densities remained low. At the end of the study, when we considered the initial differences in location, densities inside the fence were roughly 2.5 times higher than outside. The pattern of densities was similar for male and female adults. When evaluating survival by blocks of years, survivorship was higher in 1979–1989 than in 1989–2002 (the low point) and highest from 2002 to 2012. Recruitment and survival of adult females into the population was important for growing the population, but survival of all sizes, including juveniles, was also critical. Major events and activities driving the decline in populations both inside and outside the fence included illegal collecting, upper respiratory tract disease, and hyperpredation by the common raven (Corvus corax) on juvenile tortoises. Other sources of death were gunshots, vehicles, and predation by mammals. Outside the fence, fragmentation and deterioration of habitat was a critical driver. Between the first and last surveys, 2 different ecosystem processes were underway: recovery of vegetation and soils from grazing and vehicles inside the fence and continued deterioration outside the fence. Habitat outside the fence became increasingly denuded of shrubs and fragmented by roads and trails, and habitat fragments increased 50-fold. Outside the fence, biomass of non-native annual plants was higher and the cover of shrubs was lower, a reflection of ongoing deterioration. These changes and losses of habitat resulted in loss of shrub cover and sites for burrows, reduction in preferred food plants, and greater exposure to predators and extremes in temperature. Overall, the tortoise population and habitat inside the fence appeared to benefit from protection and showed signs of recovery at the end of the study. Fencing, control of vehicular access, and removal of livestock grazing were among several recommended management actions for critical habitat in the first recovery plan in 1994. At the end of the study, the Natural Area remained as 1 of 2 fenced, official protected areas for the species in the geographic range. We attribute fencing to continuing higher densities of adults inside the fence compared with outside the fence and promising signs of recovery. Densities of adults at the Natural Area also were 2.3 to 5.5 times higher than in 16 of the 17 Tortoise Conservation Areas (critical habitat units) within the geographic range. © 2020 The Authors. Wildlife Monographs published by Wiley Periodicals, LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

Gopher Tortoise Response to Habitat Management by Prescribed Burning

ABSTRACT As quality of forested habitat declines from altered fire regimes, gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) often move into ruderal areas to the detriment of the animal and land manager. We evaluated effects of a dormant-and-growing-season prescribed fire on habitat and gopher tortoise use of degraded longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) forests surrounding military training areas. We burned 4 of 8 sites in winter 2001–2002 and again in April 2003. Changes in vegetation measured during 2001–2004 indicated that burn treatments did not increase herbaceous vegetation. Similarly, movement patterns, burrow usage, and home range of tortoises radiotracked from 2002–2004 did not differ between treatments. Woody cover initially was reduced in the forests postburn, and we found more new burrows in burned forest sites. Once shrub cover was reduced, tortoises started using forested habitat that had become overgrown. However, shrub reduction may be temporary, as woody stem densities increased postburn. Thus, the one-time use of fire to manage tortoise habitat may not rapidly restore the open canopy, sparse woody midstory, and abundant herbaceous vegetation that this species requires. Repeated prescribed fires or additional management techniques may be needed for complete restoration.     

Clan Lethals and Inter-Year Allelism in Death Valley DROSOPHILA PSEUDOOBSCURA

A chromosome 2 lethal allelism rate of about 3% was found in the 1974 population of D. pseudoobscura in Death Valley, California. This rate was significantly higher than allelism rates in other Southern California populations. The Death Valley population was sampled again in 1975 and 1977, with allelism rates of 1% and 0.5%, respectively. In 1974, several lethals were in high frequencies (about 1%), a pattern that reappeared in 1975 and 1977. However, none of the lethals in high frequency one year were in high frequency another year; the particular lethal alleles present in this ephemeral population appear to be due to their random presence in the flies which refound the population every winter. The results for the Death Valley population are compared with a Japanese population of D. melanogaster in which lethals in high frequency one year are also in high frequency in succeeding years and with earlier work on chromosome 3 of D. pseudoobscura, which showed a lower lethal frequency and higher allelism rate.     

Zebra mussel (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Dreissena polymorpha</Emphasis>) affects the feeding ecology of early stage striped bass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Morone saxatilis</Emphasis>) in the Hudson River estuary

Variability in the feeding ecology of young fishes over short and long time scales in estuaries is likely to affect population dynamics. We studied 14 years of early stage Striped Bass feeding ecology in the Hudson River Estuary over a 25-year time span, including years in which invasive zebra mussels markedly altered energy flow within the estuary. We predicted that feeding success would be low and that diet composition would be altered during years of high zebra mussel impact, particularly in upriver locations where mussels occur. Feeding success in the short term was indicated by volume of gut contents and in the long term by dry mass at length, i.e. condition; these measures were positively intercorrelated and varied significantly year to year. We tested for associations between condition and multiple biotic and abiotic environmental variables. There was a strong negative effect of zebra mussel grazing rate on condition in upriver locations and a weak positive effect in downriver locations. In upriver locations, condition was 33% higher when local salinity was high and zebra mussel grazing rates were low, whereas in downriver locations, condition was 35% higher when zebra mussel grazing rates and copepod abundance were high and local dissolved oxygen was low. Copepods, amphipods, mysids, and Leptodora constituted the highest prey-specific index of relative importance throughout the estuary. There was no evident effect of the zebra mussel invasion on diet composition. This long-term study corroborates the inferences of earlier studies that zebra mussels reduced early-stage striped bass growth rate.     

Predictors of Response Rates to a Long Term Follow-Up Mail out Survey

Objective

Very little is known about predictors of response rates to long-term follow-up mail-out surveys, including whether the timing of an incentive affects response rates. We aimed to determine whether the timing of the incentive affects response rates and what baseline demographic and psychological factors predict response rates to a 12 year follow-up survey.Study design and setting: Participants were 450 randomly selected people from the Penrith population, Australia who had previously participated in a mail-out survey 12 years earlier. By random allocation, 150 people received no incentive, 150 received a lottery ticket inducement with the follow-up survey and 150 received a lottery ticket inducement on the return of a completed survey.

Results

The overall response rate for the study was 63%. There were no significant differences in terms of response rates between the no incentive (58.8%;95%CI 49.8%,67.3%), incentive with survey (65.1%;95%CI 56.2%,73.3%) and promised incentive (65.3%;95%CI 56.1%,73.7%) groups. Independent predictors of responding to the 12 year survey were being older (OR=1.02, 95%CI 1.01,1.05,P=0.001) and being less neurotic as reported on the first survey 12 years earlier (OR=0.92, 95%CI 0.86,0.98, P=0.010).

Conclusions

Psychological factors may play a role in determining who responds to long-term follow-up surveys although timing of incentives does not.     

Bioenergetics of age-related versus size-related reproductive tactics in female Viviparus georgianus

Individual Viviparus georgianus from a New York population are iteroparous, maturing in their second year. Ovoviviparous females have a maximum lifespan 1 year longer than that of males (4 + versus 3+ years), though individuals of both sexes can be reproductively active for three consecutive years. Embryophores are carried over winter and released each spring. Female survivorship is positively size related, as is incremental growth within any year. Reproductive effort is age related, increasing from 5.3% for modal 2-year females to 79.7% for modal 4-year females. Reproduction is size limited in 2-year females, no females below 16 mm shell length were found containing broods. The lack of observable survivorship penalties related to reproduction may result from reproductive females have greater biomass and hence greater survivorship. Spat size is positively correlated with female age irrespective of female size, though brood numbers increase with maternal size and growth rates. Caged experiments have shown spat born early to older females grow fastest. Data presented indicate that the young of older females have greater expected lifetime fecundity and fitness. In this population, 3-year females produce approximately 50.0% of each new cohort, with 2-year and 4-year females producing 21.0% and 26.0% respectively. Matrix models of the natural population and modified hypothetical populations emphasize the importance of survivorship and early reproduction in such stable, age-structured populations.     

Evaluating precision of cementum annuli analysis for aging mule deer from southern California

We evaluated the precision of age estimates produced by cementum annuli analysis (CAA) of blind-duplicate specimens taken from 994 southern mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) collected over 15 years. We found that the mean annual proportion of unreliably aged incisor pairs was greater for females (0.48, SD = 0.13) than for males (0.22, SD = 0.07). Most of the 308 unreliably aged tooth pairs disagreed by only 1 year. Sex, precipitation, and certainty codes assigned by Matson's Lab to the age estimates were the best predictors for agreement of estimated ages within incisor pairs. Our estimated overall age error rate of CAA (17%) was >2 times as large as estimated error rates from Montana and South Dakota, but less than half of error rates estimated for Mississippi and south Texas. Knowing the error rate of age estimates from a specific deer population allows wildlife managers to perform tasks requiring specific age class information such as monitoring the harvest rate of older female deer in a hunted population or performing population reconstruction. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Evaluation of Bear Rub Surveys to Monitor Grizzly Bear Population Trends

Abstract: Wildlife managers need reliable estimates of population size, trend, and distribution to make informed decisions about how to recover at-risk populations, yet obtaining these estimates is costly and often imprecise. The grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in northwestern Montana, USA, has been managed for recovery since being listed under the United States Endangered Species Act in 1975, yet no rigorous data were available to evaluate the program's success. We used encounter data from 379 grizzly bears identified through bear rub surveys to parameterize a series of Pradel model simulations in Program MARK to assess the ability of noninvasive genetic sampling to estimate population growth rates. We evaluated model performance in terms of 1) power to detect gender-specific and population-wide declines in population abundance, 2) precision and relative bias of growth rate estimates, and 3) sampling effort required to achieve 80% power to detect a decline within 10 years. Simulations indicated that ecosystem-wide, annual bear rub surveys would exceed 80% power to detect a 3% annual decline within 6 years. Robust-design models with 2 simulated surveys per year provided precise and unbiased annual estimates of trend, abundance, and apparent survival. Designs incorporating one survey per year require less sampling effort but only yield trend and apparent survival estimates. Our results suggest that systematic, annual bear rub surveys may provide a viable complement or alternative to telemetry-based methods for monitoring trends in grizzly bear populations.     

Structure and projected decline of a Karoo dwarf tortoise population

Inconspicuous, secretive, or sparsely distributed species receive relatively little research attention, potentially leading to uncertainty about their status and lack of efforts to conserve them. Karoo dwarf tortoises (Chersobius boulengeri) are endemic to South Africa, spend most of the time in retreats at remote arid locations, and are seldom seen. We conducted a 3-year (2018–2020) mark-recapture study to investigate the size and structure of the only Karoo dwarf tortoise population currently known to exist. The population in the 16-ha core of our study site consisted primarily of adult males and females, at a density of 3.3 individuals/ha. Many individuals had severely worn shells and appeared old. Small individuals (straight carapace length <65 mm) represented just 8% of the population and were mostly recent hatchlings. Overall, tortoises had high estimated survival rates (0.77–0.95; lower 95% confidence limit for the smallest tortoises was 0.16), despite a 15-month drought. The lack of small individuals may reflect low levels of recruitment and population decline. Predation by corvids was an obvious threat to all size classes. We estimated that the local population across the 250-ha study area was 800–900 males and females, and recommend precautionary conservation measures focused on reducing human-subsidized avian predation.     

A Population Estimate for Golden Eagles in the Western United States

ABSTRACT Researchers have suggested golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) populations may be declining in portions of their range. However, there are few baseline data describing golden eagle populations across their range in the western United States. We used aerial line transect distance methodology with a double-observer modification to estimate golden eagle population numbers in 4 bird conservation regions of the western United States. We conducted surveys from 16 August to 8 September 2003, after most golden eagles had fledged and before fall migration. The goal of our sampling strategy was to provide >80% power (α = 0.1) to detect an annual rate of total population change >3% per year over a 20-year period. We observed 172 golden eagles across 148 transects and estimated 27,392 golden eagles (90% CI: 21,352-35,140) occurred in the study area during the late summer and early fall of 2003. Following the surveys, we used Monte Carlo simulation to determine the statistical power to detect trends in the golden eagle populations if yearly surveys were continued over a 20-year monitoring period. The simulation indicated the desired power could be achieved under the current methodology and sample size. The methods utilized in this study can be implemented for other raptor species when population estimates that include nonbreeding members of a population are needed. The results of this study can be utilized by professionals to help manage golden eagle populations and to develop conservation strategies.