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1.
A number of potential explanatory variables for the stocks and flows of copper and zinc in contemporary technological societies are co-analyzed with the tools of exploratory data analysis. A one-year analysis (circa 1994) is performed for 50 countries that comprise essentially all anthropogenic stocks and flows of the two metals. The results show that (1) The key explanatory variable for metal use is gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (purchasing power parity, PPP). By itself, GDP explains between one-third and one-half of the variance of per capita copper and zinc use. Other variables that were significantly correlated with copper and zinc use included stock of passenger cars and television sets (per 1, 000 people); two infrastructure variables, wired telephone connections, urban population, and value added inmanufacturing. The results do not provide evidence supporting the Kuznets curve hypothesis for these metals. (2) Metal use per capita can be estimated using multiple regression equations. For copper, the natural logarithm of use is related to the explanatory variables GDP (PPP), value added in manufacturing, and urban population. This model explains 80% of the variance among the different countries (r2= 0.79). The natural logarithm of zinc use is related to GDP (PPP) and value added in manufacturing with an r2 of 0.75; (3) For both metals, rates of metal fabrication, use, net addition to stock, and discard in low-and high-income countries differ significantly from each other. Our statistical analyses thus provide a basis for estimating the potential development of metal use, net addition to stock, and discard, using data on explanatory variables that are available at the international level.  相似文献   

2.
The Multilevel Cycle of Anthropogenic Zinc   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
A comprehensive annual cycle for stocks and flows of zinc, based on data from circa 1994 and incorporating information on extraction, processing, fabrication, use, discard, recycling, and landfilling, was carried out at three discrete governmental unit levels—54 countries and 1 country group (which together comprise essentially all global anthropogenic zinc stocks and flows), nine world regions, and the planet as a whole. All of these cycles are available in an electronic supplement to this article, which thus provides a metadata set on zinc flows for the use of industrial ecology researchers. A "best estimate" global zinc cycle was constructed to resolve aggregation discrepancies. Among the most interesting results are the following: (1) The accumulation ratio, that is, addition to in-use stock as a function of zinc entering use, is positive and large (2/3 of zinc entering use is added to stock) (country, regional, and global levels); (2) secondary input ratios (fractions of input to fabrication that are from recycled zinc) and domestic recycling percentages (fractions of discarded zinc that are recycled) differ among regions by as much as a factor of six (regional level); (3) worldwide, about 40% of the zinc that was discarded in various forms was recovered and reused or recycled (global level); (4) zinc cycles can usefully be characterized by a set of ratios, including, notably, the utilization efficiency (the ratio of manufacturing waste to manufacturing output: 0.090) and the prompt scrap ratio (new scrap as a fraction of manufacturing input: 0.070) (global level). Because capturable discards are a significant fraction of primary zinc inputs, if a larger proportion of discards were recaptured, extraction requirements would decrease significantly (global level). The results provide a framework for complementary studies in resource stocks, industrial resource utilization, energy consumption, waste management, industrial economics, and environmental impacts.  相似文献   

3.
A comprehensive multilevel contemporary cycle for stocks and flows of zinc is analyzed by the tools of exploratory data analysis. The analysis is performed at three discrete organizational levels—country (53 countries and 1 country group that together comprise essentially all anthropogenic stocks and flows of zinc), world region (9 world regions), and the planet as a whole. The results demonstrate the following: (1) Exploratory data analysis provides valuable and otherwise unobtainable information about material flows, especially those across multiple spatial levels. (2) All distributions of countrylevel zinc stock and flow data are highly skewed, a few countries having large magnitudes, many having small magnitudes. Rates of fabrication of zinc-containing products for the countries are poorly correlated with rates of extraction, reflecting the fact that many countries that extract zinc do not fabricate products from zinc to any significant degree, and vice versa. (4) Virtually all countries are adding zinc to stock in the use phase (in galvanizing applications, zinc castings, etc.). These rates of addition are highly correlated with rates of zinc entering use in all regions, and are higher in regions under vigorous development. (5) With weak confidence, the rate of zinc landfilling by countries appears to be highly correlated with the rate of discard. (6) The statistical distributions of regional-level zinc cycle parameters are approximately log normal. (7) The extremes of normalized statistical distributions of zinc flow values are broader at lower spatial levels (country versus region, for example), but regional interquartile ranges for zinc entering use and zinc discards are higher at regional level then at country level.  相似文献   

4.
Carbon‐based materials (CBMs) for energetic and material purposes combine biogenic and anthropogenic carbon cycles. In the latter, numerous manufactured products with various in‐use lifespans accumulate as anthropogenic carbon stocks. Understanding the behavior of these stocks is an important requirement to estimate not only future waste amounts, source for secondary raw materials, but also the impacts and effects in carbon emissions and carbon management. Previous models have estimated material stock changes; however, a lack of research in carbon stocks is perceived. Moreover, studies follow in‐use lifespan estimation approaches, such as decay functions, which do not coincide with observed consumption and waste treatment patterns. In the first part of this article, we present a carbon stock‐flow model to analyze inter‐relationships between carbon flows and stocks from raw materials to waste treatment processes considering a consumer perspective, where the dynamics of anthropogenic carbon stocks are completely described. In the second part, we study the pulp and paper industry in Germany under a scenario approach to analyze the behavior, development, and impacts of paper stocks and flows between 2010 and 2040. The model provided coherent results, with industrial data estimating 33.9 million metric tons in 2010 in paper stocks, equivalent to 410 kilograms per person. Consumption per capita and in‐use lifespan of products were identified as the most significant variables in carbon stock building. Model simulations show a sustained growth in stocks for the next 30 years, with increase in waste and carbon emissions. But in combination with recycling and reuse mechanisms and consumption patterns, environmental impacts are reduced.  相似文献   

5.
Copper (Cu) is an essential but supply‐restricted resource in China. Characterization of in‐use stocks can provide useful instruction for the future recycling of copper. This article attempts to estimate copper in‐use stocks in a Chinese city. To this purpose, an extensive bottom‐up estimate of copper stocks in use in Nanjing in the year 2009 was conducted. The results are a total stock estimate of 295 gigagrams (Gg) of copper or 46.9 kilograms (kg) of copper per capita for 2009. Infrastructure, equipment, and buildings contain 42.0%, 26.1%, and 28.1% of the total stock, respectively, indicating that these three categories are principal potential reservoirs of a secondary copper resource. The copper in transportation amounts to only about 3.7% of the total amount. The per capita stock was compared with similar studies carried out in other regions of the world, and the results show that the Nanjing level is significantly lower than developed countries. On the whole, our results show that electric power transmission and distribution systems, buildings, household durables, and industrial equipment are the four largest potential reservoirs of copper scrap.  相似文献   

6.
National material stock (MS) accounts have been a neglected field of analysis in industrial ecology, possibly because of the difficulty in establishing such accounts. In this research, we propose a novel method to model national MS based on historical material flow data. This enables us to avoid the laborious data work involved with bottom‐up accounts for stocks and to arrive at plausible levels of stock accumulation for nations. We apply the method for the United States and Japan to establish a proof of concept for two very different cases of industrial development. Looking at a period of 75 years (1930–2005), we find that per capita MS has been much higher in the United States for the entire period, but that Japan has experienced much higher growth rates throughout, in line with Japan's late industrial development. By 2005, however, both Japan and the United States arrive at a very similar level of national MS of 310 to 375 tonnes per capita, respectively. This research provides new insight into the relationship between MS and flows in national economies and enables us to extend the debate about material efficiency from a narrow perspective of throughput to a broader perspective of stocks.  相似文献   

7.
Construction material plays an increasingly important role in the environmental impacts of buildings. In order to investigate impacts of materials on a building level, we present a bottom‐up building stock model that uses three‐dimensional and geo‐referenced building data to determine volumetric information of material stocks in Swiss residential buildings. We used a probabilistic modeling approach to calculate future material flows for the individual buildings. We investigated six scenarios with different assumptions concerning per‐capita floor area, building stock turnover, and construction material. The Swiss building stock will undergo important structural changes by 2035. While this will lead to a reduced number in new constructions, material flows will increase. Total material inflow decreases by almost half while outflows double. In 2055, the total amount of material in‐ and outflows are almost equal, which represents an important opportunity to close construction material cycles. Total environmental impacts due to production and disposal of construction material remain relatively stable over time. The cumulated impact is slightly reduced for the wood‐based scenario. The scenario with more insulation material leads to slightly higher material‐related emissions. An increase in per‐capita floor area or material turnover will lead to a considerable increase in impacts. The new modeling approach overcomes the limitations of previous bottom‐up building models and allows for investigating building material flows and stocks in space and time. This supports the development of tailored strategies to reduce the material footprint and environmental impacts of buildings and settlements.  相似文献   

8.
Purpose

Assessing the potential impacts (characterization) of mineral resource use in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) has long been debated. One of the most crucial challenges in the characterization models for mineral resource use is the consideration of the changing demand and availability of in-use stocks in the future, which is relevant to the global population and economy growth as well as the increasing low-carbon technologies. We propose an extended characterization model to assess the potential impacts for arbitrary time horizons, considering future demand changes and the availability of in-use stock: temporally explicit abiotic depletion potential (TADP).

Methods

The TADP was developed based on abiotic depletion potential (ADP), which is a widely used characterization model for mineral resource use. While the ADP assesses the potential impacts of mineral resource use based on a natural stock estimate and the current extraction rate, the TADP adopts an average extraction rate for arbitrary time horizons. The average extraction rate was estimated using material flow analysis considering future demand changes and recycling under the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). TADPs were calculated for six common metals: aluminum, copper, iron, lead, nickel, and zinc.

Results and discussion

As a result of calculating TADPs for the term by 2050 (TADP2050), compared to iron, all other metals showed larger values of characterization factors for all SSPs than the original ADPs. The TADP2050 of copper exhibited the largest difference with ADP among the six metals (approximately 1.9 times), which is mainly attributed to future demand growth. On the other hand, for the longer time perspective, the TADP2100 of lead and zinc exhibited larger differences with ADP than copper (approximately 2.8 times for zinc), which is mainly due to a relatively shorter lifetime for lead and a lower recycling rate for zinc. This suggests that the relative significance of the characterization factors of metals varies depending on the temporal perspective.

Conclusions

With the proposed characterization model, the potential impacts of mineral resource use can be assessed reflecting future situations for the selected time horizons. The results demonstrate that the consideration of future situations greatly influences the relative significance of the potential impacts of using different mineral resources in the results of LCIA studies. By expanding the coverage of mineral resources and future scenario analysis to other relevant factors, the TADP model can improve the robustness of the assessment and further support decision-making towards sustainable resource management.

  相似文献   

9.
Trace metals are components of releases to air emitted by copper and zinc production facilities in Canada. Six metals (copper, zinc, nickel, lead, cadmium, and arsenic) are examined as part of an overall environmental assessment of these releases. Estimates of metal deposition rates to soils and surface waters were derived from monitoring data in the vicinity of the production facilities and also through dispersion modelling studies. Fate and transport modelling of the metals deposited allowed an estimation of critical loads. Estimated annual deposition rates were compared with 25th-percentile critical loads typically representative of effects on sensitive organisms under 25% of conditions in sandy soils or circumneutral to acidic lake waters. The results of the comparison suggest that there is a potential for adverse effects on aquatic and/or soil-dwelling organisms from exposure to steadystate concentrations of metals in the vicinity of copper and zinc production facilities. Approaches of particular significance in these assessments include probabilistic estimation of critical loads for metals, allowance for the speciation of metals defining the bioavailable fraction and limiting critical effect levels to the high end of natural background metal concentrations.  相似文献   

10.
A dynamic substance‐flow model is developed to characterize the stocks and flows of cement utilized during the 20th century in the United States, using the generic cement life cycle as a systems boundary. The motivation for estimating historical inventories of cement stocks and flows is to provide accurate estimates of contemporary cement in‐use stocks in U.S. infrastructure and future discards to relevant stakeholders in U.S. infrastructure, such as the federal and state highway administrators, departments of transportation, public and private utilities, and the construction and cement industries. Such information will assist in planning future rehabilitation projects and better life cycle management of infrastructure systems. In the present policy environment of climate negotiations, estimates of in‐use cement infrastructure can provide insights about to what extent built environment can act as a carbon sink over its lifetime. The rate of addition of new stock, its composition, and the repair of existing stock are key determinants of infrastructure sustainability. Based upon a probability of failure approach, a dynamic stock and flow model was developed utilizing three statistical lifetime distributions—Weibull, gamma, and lognormal—for each cement end‐use. The model‐derived estimate of the “in‐use” cement stocks in the United States is in the range of 4.2 to 4.4 billion metric tons (gigatonnes, Gt). This indicates that 82% to 87% of cement utilized during the last century is still in use. On a per capita basis, this is equivalent to 14.3 to 15.0 tonnes of in‐use cement stock per person. The in‐use cement stock per capita has doubled over the last 50 years, although the rate of growth has slowed.  相似文献   

11.
Material management faces a dual challenge: on the one hand satisfying large and increasing demands for goods and on the other hand accommodating wastes and emissions in sinks. Hence, the characterization of material flows and stocks is relevant for both improving resource efficiency and environmental protection. This article focuses on the urban scale, a dimension rarely investigated in past metal flow studies. We compare the copper (Cu) metabolism of two cities in different economic states, namely, Vienna (Europe) and Taipei (Asia). Substance flow analysis is used to calculate urban Cu balances in a comprehensive and transparent form. The main difference between Cu in the two cities appears to be the stock: Vienna seems close to saturation with 180 kilograms per capita (kg/cap) and a growth rate of 2% per year. In contrast, the Taipei stock of 30 kg/cap grows rapidly by 26% per year. Even though most Cu is recycled in both cities, bottom ash from municipal solid waste incineration represents an unused Cu potential accounting for 1% to 5% of annual demand. Nonpoint emissions are predominant; up to 50% of the loadings into the sewer system are from nonpoint sources. The results of this research are instrumental for the design of the Cu metabolism in each city. The outcomes serve as a base for identification and recovery of recyclables as well as for directing nonrecyclables to appropriate sinks, avoiding sensitive environmental pathways. The methodology applied is well suited for city benchmarking if sufficient data are available.  相似文献   

12.
Determination of metal levels (copper, zinc, cadmium, silver and mercury) in soluble and insoluble fractions of liver homogenates has been performed after 7 days exposure of carps (Cyprinus carpio) to moderate concentrations of cadmium, silver and mercury in water. Metallothionein (MT) levels have been quantified by a polarographic method before and after the contamination and a subsequent decontamination phase (7 days). The influence of pretreatment by zinc (7 days) has also been evaluated. MT level variations have been interpreted as having regard to inter-related flows of metal between subcellular fractions. Special interest has been focused on heat-stable compound (HSC)-bound heavy metal flows within the cytosol, taking in account that MT is the major component of these ligands. Our data showed differences between the ability of metals to bind cytosolic ligands and HSCs, and their respective potency for MT induction in liver. Regardless of pretreatment, mercury gave the highest increase of liver MT, but the MT level decreased during the decontamination step, especially after pretreatment by zinc. Cadmium and silver gave similar increases, but a significant difference with the control appeared only after the decontamination step with cadmium, while 1 week of contamintion was enough for silver. However, silver binding with MT was achieved only by the end of the decontamination step, while cadmium depicted the highest ratio for HSC-bound toxic metals after the contamination. Our experimental conditions gave the following order of potency for MT induction in liver: mercury silver > cadmium > zinc. Results are discussed comparatively with data obtained with carp gills.  相似文献   

13.
The present article investigates to what extent and level of success urban mining—the recovery of resources from anthropogenic stock—has been applied in the past during shortages of primary resources. As a case study, the Austrian economy during World War I—when raw materials indeed had to be substituted from secondary sources—is analyzed here. By means of material flow analysis, the management of copper, an important and relatively scarce metal that is difficult to substitute, is examined. The combination of increased demand for copper (for ammunition) and constraints on supply from sources other than the domestic anthroposphere highlights the importance of planning for and surveying urban mining activities. The results also indicate limitations to extracting a large share of copper from the anthroposphere, even in the face of a critical shortage. Although extreme measures, such as confiscation, were taken, only 1.7 kilograms of copper per capita (kg Cu/cap), amounting to perhaps as little as 10% of the anthropogenic stock, could be made available through the end of the war.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

Metal fractionation is a powerful tool for studying the mobility, bioavailability and toxicity of metals in sediments and soils. A seven-step sequential extraction technique was used to determine the potential mobility of selected heavy metals (Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu, Pb, Cd and Ni) in the sediments of Lake Naivasha. Results indicate that residual fraction was the most important phase for the elements Fe, Mn, Cu and Zn. However, Pb and Cd are highly enriched in the non-residual phases. Nickel on the other hand was distributed evenly between the non-residual and the residual fractions.

The total concentrations of the heavy metals suggested a decreasing order of iron ?> manganese ? zinc > nickel > copper ? lead > cadmium. However, the detailed sequential extraction data indicated an order of release or mobility of cadmium > lead ? nickel ? zinc > manganese > copper > iron. The high percentage of Cd and Pb in the mobile fractions suggests high bioavailability of these two elements in the study area and maybe a pointer to anthropogenic input of the two elements in the study area.  相似文献   

15.
The building stock is not only a huge consumer of resources (for its construction and operation), but also represents a significant source for the future supply of metallic and mineral resources. This article describes how material stocks in buildings and their spatial distribution can be analyzed on a city level. In particular, the building structure (buildings differentiated by construction period and utilization) of Vienna is analyzed by joining available geographical information systems (GIS) data from various municipal authorities. Specific material intensities for different building categories (differentiated by construction period and utilization) are generated based on multiple data sources on the material composition of different building types and combined with the data on the building structure. Utilizing these methods, the overall material stock in buildings in Vienna was calculated to be 380 million metric tonnes (t), which equals 210 t per capita (t/cap). The bulk of the material (>96%) is mineral, whereas organic materials (wood, plastics, bitumen, and so on) and metals (iron/steel, copper, aluminum, and so on) constitute a very small share, of which wood (4.0 t/cap) and steel (3.2 t/cap) are the major contributors. Besides the overall material stock, the spatial distribution of materials within the municipal area can be assessed. This research forms the basis for a resource cadaster, which provides information about gross volume, construction period, utilization, and material composition for each building in Vienna.  相似文献   

16.
The 20th century was a time of rapidly escalating use of lead (Pb). As a consequence, the standing stock of lead is now substantial. By linking lead extraction and use to estimates of product lifetimes and recycling, we have derived an estimate of the standing stock of lead throughout the century by top-down techniques. We find that the stock of in-use lead is almost entirely made up of batteries (68%), lead sheet (10%), and lead pipe (10%). Globally, about 200 teragrams (Tg) Pb was mined in the 20th century, and about 25 Tg Pb now makes up the in-use stock, so some 87% has been lost over time. Nonetheless, about 11% of all lead entering use was added to in-use stock in 2000, so the stock continues to increase each year. Currently, most of the stock is in Europe (32%), North America (32%), and Asia (24%). On a per capita basis, the global stock is about 5.6 kilograms (kg) Pb, and regional in-use stock ranges from 2.0 kg Pb (Africa) to 19.7 kg Pb (Europe). From a sustainability perspective, we estimate that the global lead resource is around 415 Tg Pb. Were the entire world to receive the services of lead at the level of the developed countries, some 130 Tg Pb would be needed, so there do not appear to be significant long-term limitations to the lead supply.  相似文献   

17.
Dynamic material flow analysis enables the forecasting of secondary raw material potential for waste volumes in future periods, by assessing past, present, and future stocks and flows of materials in the anthroposphere. Analyses of waste streams of buildings stocks are uncertain with respect to data and model structure. Wood construction in Viennese buildings serve as a case study to compare different modeling approaches for determining end‐of‐life (EoL) wood and corresponding contaminant flows (lead, chlorine, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons). A delayed input and a leaching stock modeling approach are used to determine wood stocks and flows from 1950 until 2100. Cross‐checking with independent estimates and sensitivity analyses are used to evaluate the results’ plausibility. In the situation of the given data in the present case study, the delay approach is a better choice for historical observations of EoL wood and for analyses at a substance level. It has some major drawbacks for future predictions at the goods level, though, as the durability of a large number of historical buildings with considerably higher wood content is not reflected in the model. The wood content parameter differs strongly for the building periods and has therefore the highest influence on the results. Based on this knowledge, general recommendations can be derived for analyses on waste flows of buildings at a goods and substance level.  相似文献   

18.
Technology transition can have significant implications on the evolution of environmental impact potential of disposed electronics over time. Considering technology transition, we quantify the temporal behavior of ecological and human health impact potential from select heavy metals in electronic waste (e‐waste). The case study analyzes product substitution effects in two electronic cohorts from the U.S. market: (1) computers (laptops substituting for desktops) and (2) televisions (flat‐panel liquid crystal displays [LCDs] and plasma displays substituting for cathode‐ray tubes [CRTs]). Quantities of end‐of‐life (EoL) units to year 2030 are forecasted by the unique combination of dynamic material flow analysis, logistic trend analysis, and product lifespan calibration methods. Metal content from EoL units are assessed via a pathway and effect model using USETox? characterization factors to determine the toxicity potential attributed to heavy metal releases into different media (e.g., air, water, and soil) as an indicator of environmental burden. Results show high impact materials such as lead, nickel, and zinc cause changes in human health toxicity potential and copper causes changes in ecological toxicity potential. Effects of dematerialization, such as reduced metal content in laptops over desktops, provide some positive benefits in toxicity potential per product. However, from a market perspective, emerging e‐waste quantities created by increasing per capita penetration rates of electronics and increasing population will offset gains in environmental performance at the product level. The resulting analysis provides guidance on the timing expected for emerging EoL units and an indication of high impact potential materials requiring pollution prevention as product substitution occurs.  相似文献   

19.
Environmental pollution caused by anthropogenic activities has increased agricultural land contamination with heavy metals which is harmful to plant and human health. Increased metal accumulation in the soils may trigger competition between toxic metals and essential nutrients for absorption by plants and consequently leads to the development of oxidative stress. Soybean plants have a delicate system of defense mechanisms. We assume that the influence of heavy metals on plant growth as a whole can be traced through a change in the activity of enzymes. We studied the stress-reducing reaction against the toxic effects of copper sulphate and zinc sulphate, identified different endurance classes, and observed differences in the biochemical adaptation i.e. ribonuclease (RNase) activity in the wild and cultivated soybean sprouts. Sulphates of both zinc and copper at maximum permissible concentration and double maximum permissible concentration affected the multiple forms of RNase and its specific activity in the wild and cultivated soybean sprouts (grown for 1, 3, 5, and 7 days). Wild soybean sprouts had higher RNase activity as compared to cultivated soybean sprouts. It is shown that the limits of endurance for wild soybean during intoxication are observed on days 1, 3 and 5, while for cultivated soybean they vary depending on the type of toxicant and its concentration. Sulphates of copper and zinc affect the wild and cultivated soybean sprouts in a time and dose-dependent manner.  相似文献   

20.
The mean liver concentrations of copper, manganese, zinc and cobalt were 0.25, 0.20, 2.97 mmol/kg and 2.81 mumol/kg respectively in free-living koalas in Victoria, Australia. The mean plasma copper concentration was 9.2 mmol/liter which was somewhat below the level in other hindgut fermenters. The mean concentrations of copper, manganese and zinc in their diet (Eucalyptus spp.) were 0.08, 4.46 and 0.27 mmol/kg respectively. Analysis of the data established a significant correlation between the age of the koalas and the inverse of the concentration of the copper (r = -0.67, P less than 0.001) in the liver. There were no such correlations apparent for manganese, zinc or cobalt. The concentrations of trace metals in the Eucalyptus diet for the koala were comparable to those recommended in the diets for other hindgut fermenters such as horse, rabbits and rats. However there was evidence for suboptimal plasma copper levels (mean 9.2 mmol/liter) in some koalas, and reduced liver copper levels in older koalas. Liver histology revealed the presence of brown intracytoplasmic granules in hepatocytes. The size and number of these granules per cell was noted to increase with increasing age of the koala but the chemical nature and the role of the granules was not determined by the histochemical techniques used.  相似文献   

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