Electrofishing and salmonid movement: reciprocal effects in two small montane streams

The effects of electrofishing on salmonid movement and of salmonid movement on electrofishing‐derived abundance estimates were studied in two streams in western Montana, U.S.A. Electrofishing increased emigration of salmonids from study reaches for 1 day, but not for succeeding days, whereas immigration to study reaches was unaffected. Movement of most emigrating fishes was downstream. On these small streams, electrofishing did not appear to cause fishes to flee during sampling. Numbers of salmonids migrating between mark and recapture runs were small relative to the fish abundance estimates in study reaches, usually much less than the 95% CL for those estimates, thus disregarding movements of marked fishes from the study reaches would have produced small positive biases in abundance estimates. Overall, for this suite of salmonid species in mid‐summer in these streams, the effects of electrofishing on fish movement and of fish movement on abundance estimates were minor.     

Lincoln estimates of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance in North America

Estimates of range‐wide abundance, harvest, and harvest rate are fundamental for sound inferences about the role of exploitation in the dynamics of free‐ranging wildlife populations, but reliability of existing survey methods for abundance estimation is rarely assessed using alternative approaches. North American mallard populations have been surveyed each spring since 1955 using internationally coordinated aerial surveys, but population size can also be estimated with Lincoln's method using banding and harvest data. We estimated late summer population size of adult and juvenile male and female mallards in western, midcontinent, and eastern North America using Lincoln's method of dividing (i) total estimated harvest, , by estimated harvest rate, , calculated as (ii) direct band recovery rate, , divided by the (iii) band reporting rate, . Our goal was to compare estimates based on Lincoln's method with traditional estimates based on aerial surveys. Lincoln estimates of adult males and females alive in the period June–September were 4.0 (range: 2.5–5.9), 1.8 (range: 0.6–3.0), and 1.8 (range: 1.3–2.7) times larger than respective aerial survey estimates for the western, midcontinent, and eastern mallard populations, and the two population estimates were only modestly correlated with each other (western: r = 0.70, 1993–2011; midcontinent: r = 0.54, 1961–2011; eastern: r = 0.50, 1993–2011). Higher Lincoln estimates are predictable given that the geographic scope of inference from Lincoln estimates is the entire population range, whereas sampling frames for aerial surveys are incomplete. Although each estimation method has a number of important potential biases, our review suggests that underestimation of total population size by aerial surveys is the most likely explanation. In addition to providing measures of total abundance, Lincoln's method provides estimates of fecundity and population sex ratio and could be used in integrated population models to provide greater insights about population dynamics and management of North American mallards and most other harvested species.     

Indirect genetic estimates of breeding population size in the polyploid green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris)

The utility of genetic measures for kinship reconstruction in polysomic species is not well evaluated. We developed a framework to test hypotheses about estimating breeding population size indirectly from collections of outmigrating green sturgeon juveniles. We evaluated a polysomic dataset, in allelic frequency and phenotypic formats, from green sturgeon to describe the relationship among known progeny from experimental families. The distributions of relatedness values for kin classes were used for reconstructing green sturgeon pedigrees from juveniles of unknown relationship. We compared three rarefaction functions that described the relationship between the number of kin groups and number of samples in a pedigree to estimate the annual abundance of spawners contributing to the threatened green sturgeon Southern Distinct Population Segment in the upper Sacramento River. Results suggested the estimated abundance of breeding green sturgeon remained roughly constant in the upper Sacramento River over a 5‐year period, ranging from 10 to 28 individuals depending on the year and rarefaction method. These results demonstrate an empirical understanding for the distribution of relatedness values among individuals is a benefit for assessing pedigree reconstruction methods and identifying misclassification rates. Monitoring of rare species using these indirect methods is feasible and can provide insight into breeding and ontogenetic behaviour. While this framework was developed for specific application to studying fish populations in a riverscape, the framework could be advanced to improve genetic estimation of breeding population size and to identify important breeding habitats of rare species when combined with finer‐scaled sampling of offspring.     

The effect of reference sample composition and size on dental age interval estimates

Objectives

Validation studies in juvenile dental age estimation primarily focus on point estimates while interval performance for reference samples of different ancestry group compositions has received minimal attention. We tested the effect of reference sample size and composition by sex and ancestry group on age interval estimates.

Materials and Methods

The dataset consisted of Moorrees et al. dental scores from panoramic radiographs of 3334 London children of Bangladeshi and European ancestry and 2–23 years of age. Model stability was assessed using standard error of mean age-at-transition for univariate cumulative probit and sample size, group mixing (sex or ancestry), and staging system as factors. Age estimation performance was tested using molar reference samples of four sizes, stratified by year of age, sex, and ancestry. Age estimates were performed using Bayesian multivariate cumulative probit with 5-fold cross-validation.

Results

Standard error increased with decreasing sample size but showed no effect from mixing by sex or ancestry. Estimating ages using a reference and target sample of different sex reduced success rate significantly. The same test by ancestry groups had a lesser effect. Small sample size (n < 20/year of age) negatively affected most performance metrics.

Discussion

We found that reference sample size, followed by sex, primarily drove age estimation performance. Combining reference samples by ancestry produced equivalent or better estimates of age by all metrics than using a single-demographic reference of smaller size. We further proposed that population specificity is an alternative hypothesis of intergroup difference that has been erroneously treated as a null.     

Evaluation of four survey methods for estimating elephant densities

Aerial sample survey, foot survey, vehicle survey, dry-season droppings count and wet-season droppings count were used for estimating elephant (Loxodonta africana africana) densities on the Nazinga Game Ranch, Burkina Faso and evaluated against the results of an aerial total count. Results of all survey techniques except the dry-season dropping count method had low accuracies relative to the aerial total count. It is concluded that the droppings count method was the best and most cost-effective survey technique available for estimation of elephant densities.     

用浅水湖泊型鱼探仪估算东湖鱼群数量

用浅水湖泊型鱼探仪估算了武汉东湖中的鱼类个体数。鱼探仪的探头可以横向或垂直放置,水平探鱼时得到的是从湖面到1.5米深的个体鱼探图像;垂直探鱼时得到的是从1.5米到水底的个体鱼探图像。按半减半角3°计算了鱼探仪探索的水团中鱼的密度。根据每100米距离的个体鱼探图像计数值的时间系列变化以及鱼类密度的两向方差分析,发现鱼类的栖息密度随湖区的不同而异。根据各湖区鱼类当时的“现存”尾数,估计东湖郭郑湖区(11平方公里)1983年10月“现存”的鱼数为44万尾,1984年3月为112万尾。     

Electrofishing — Theory and practice with special emphasis on salmonids

This report attempts to establish guide-lines for electrofishing in population studies and is the result of literature studies and experience from electrofishing in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Equipment, safety and training, sampling design and precision requirements for various types of investigations, population estimation and fishing practice are discussed. The results are put forward in the form of recommendations. Special attention is paid to the sampling design of surveys in streams of different types and for different purposes. Examples of the computation procedures are also included.     

Censusing large mammals in Kibale National Park: evaluation of the intensity of sampling required to determine change

Monitoring programmes are essential for management of large mammal populations because they can detect population change. It is vital that we have the means to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas. Kibale National Park is a stronghold for large mammal conservation in Uganda. Past wildlife surveys in Kibale focused on specific taxa or areas, but our large mammal survey covered the entire protected area and we evaluated the intensity of sampling required to determine population change. Using line transect sampling, we found that the distribution of large mammals was nonrandom and related to habitat‐type. However, confidence intervals of population estimates revealed that much more intensive sampling was required to detect changes in population density at a time scale reasonable for management. For many species, populations would have to decline by 40–60% for this method to detect population change. Post‐stratification decreased confidence intervals of density estimates slightly, increasing our ability to detect change. However, confidence intervals of estimates were still too large to detect a meaningful population change on a time scale that would allow management to take action. Most incidences of illegal activity were about 5 km from the park boundary; however, animal densities were not lower in this area.     

Estimating Effective Population Size from Temporally Spaced Samples with a Novel,Efficient Maximum-Likelihood Algorithm

The effective population size N_e is a key parameter in population genetics and evolutionary biology, as it quantifies the expected distribution of changes in allele frequency due to genetic drift. Several methods of estimating N_e have been described, the most direct of which uses allele frequencies measured at two or more time points. A new likelihood-based estimator NB^ for contemporary effective population size using temporal data is developed in this article. The existing likelihood methods are computationally intensive and unable to handle the case when the underlying N_e is large. This article tries to work around this problem by using a hidden Markov algorithm and applying continuous approximations to allele frequencies and transition probabilities. Extensive simulations are run to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator NB^, and the results show that it is more accurate and has lower variance than previous methods. The new estimator also reduces the computational time by at least 1000-fold and relaxes the upper bound of N_e to several million, hence allowing the estimation of larger N_e. Finally, we demonstrate how this algorithm can cope with nonconstant N_e scenarios and be used as a likelihood-ratio test to test for the equality of N_e throughout the sampling horizon. An R package “NB” is now available for download to implement the method described in this article.     

A statistical approach to quasi-extinction forecasting

Forecasting population decline to a certain critical threshold (the quasi-extinction risk) is one of the central objectives of population viability analysis (PVA), and such predictions figure prominently in the decisions of major conservation organizations. In this paper, we argue that accurate forecasting of a population's quasi-extinction risk does not necessarily require knowledge of the underlying biological mechanisms. Because of the stochastic and multiplicative nature of population growth, the ensemble behaviour of population trajectories converges to common statistical forms across a wide variety of stochastic population processes. This paper provides a theoretical basis for this argument. We show that the quasi-extinction surfaces of a variety of complex stochastic population processes (including age-structured, density-dependent and spatially structured populations) can be modelled by a simple stochastic approximation: the stochastic exponential growth process overlaid with Gaussian errors. Using simulated and real data, we show that this model can be estimated with 20-30 years of data and can provide relatively unbiased quasi-extinction risk with confidence intervals considerably smaller than (0,1). This was found to be true even for simulated data derived from some of the noisiest population processes (density-dependent feedback, species interactions and strong age-structure cycling). A key advantage of statistical models is that their parameters and the uncertainty of those parameters can be estimated from time series data using standard statistical methods. In contrast for most species of conservation concern, biologically realistic models must often be specified rather than estimated because of the limited data available for all the various parameters. Biologically realistic models will always have a prominent place in PVA for evaluating specific management options which affect a single segment of a population, a single demographic rate, or different geographic areas. However, for forecasting quasi-extinction risk, statistical models that are based on the convergent statistical properties of population processes offer many advantages over biologically realistic models.     

Analysis of Transect Counts to Monitor Population Size in Endangered Insects The Case of the El Segundo Blue Butterfly, Euphilotes Bernardino Allyni

Before, during and after habitat restoration from 1984 to 1994, we monitored population size of the federally listed endangered El Segundo blue butterfly, Euphilotes bernardino allyni (Shields). In the subsequent formalization of a recovery plan for the species, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service established several recovery criteria, including a requirement of a scientifically credible monitoring plan to track population size annually. To avoid detrimental effects of the extensively used mark-release-recapture method on the delicate El Segundo blue butterfly, which would conflict with protection afforded by the Endangered Species Act, we chose instead to perform transect counts to estimate relative population size. Herein, we analyze the results of our transect counts by three different methods, developed by or modified from Pollard, Watt et al. and Zonneveld. Qualitatively, the three methods, which have different assumptions, produced similar results when applied to the same data. Zonneveld's model estimates death rate in addition to an index of population size, thus providing more information than the other two methods. The El Segundo blue butterfly's sedentary nature and the close relationship of its adult and early stages to one foodplant permits extrapolation of the index of population size based on transect counts, to an estimate of actual population size. Our data document butterfly numbers increasing from 1984 to 1989, but then declining until the end of our observations in 1994. Based on analysis of our El Segundo blue butterfly data, we propose an implementation of a scientifically credible monitoring plan.     

Bear historical ranges revisited: Documenting the increase of a once-extirpated population in Nevada

Black bears (Ursus americanus) were once abundant in Nevada and distributed throughout the state, yet recognition of the species' historical occurrence in the state is uncommon and has therefore been ignored in published distribution maps for North America. The lack of representation on distribution maps is likely due to the lack of any scientific data or research on bears in Nevada until 1987. Historical records dating back to the 1840s compiled by Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) biologist Robert McQuivey indicate presence of black bears throughout the state in the 1800s through about 1930. The paucity of historical references after 1931 suggest extirpation of black bears from Nevada's interior mountain ranges by this time. We report on historical records of black bears in the state of Nevada and the results of a current population estimate of black bears derived from a sample of marked bears (n = 420) captured 707 times between 1997 and 2008. Using Pradel and Cormack–Jolly–Seber models in Program MARK, we estimated overall population size, finite rate of growth (λ = 1.16), quarterly and annual survival rates for males and females, seasonal capture probabilities, and recruitment rates. Our results indicate an overall population size of 262 ± 31 adult black bears in western Nevada. These results suggest that the once abundant, then extirpated population of black bears in Nevada is increasing at an annual average rate of 16%. Although the current distribution is limited to the western part of the state, our findings suggest possible expansion of the population into historical habitat within the interior and eastern portions of the state that have been absent of bears for >80 years. Finally, based on historical records, we present suggested revised historical distribution maps for black bears that include the Great Basin ranges in Nevada. © 2013 The Wildlife Society.     

The CountEm software: simple,efficient and unbiased population size estimation

Population size estimation is essential in ecology and conservation studies. Aerial photography can facilitate this laborious task with high resolution images. However, in images with thousands of individuals exhaustive manual counting is tedious, slow and difficult to verify. Computer vision software may work under some particular conditions but they are generally biased and known to fail in several situations. The CountEm software is a simple alternative based on geometric sampling. It provides a fast and unbiased size estimation for all sorts of populations. The only requirement is that the discrete objects (e.g. animals) in the target population are unambiguously distinguishable for counting in a still image. Typical relative standard errors in the 5–10% range are obtained after counting ~200 properly sampled animals in about 5 min irrespective of population size. The CountEm ver. 1.4.1 is presented here, which includes a guided mode with a simple software interface.     

Brief communication: Sex determination accuracy of the minimum supero-inferior femoral neck diameter in a contemporary rural Guatemalan population

One hundred and fourteen femora (75 male and 39 female) derived from a contemporary rural Guatemalan population were studied to test the ability of the minimum supero-inferior femoral neck diameter as a sex indicator. With the discriminant functions previously developed from North American modern populations, a maximum of only 36% correctly sexed femora was obtained, with correct percentages as low as 4%. A new discriminant function for the Guatemalan rural population is presented, with a total of 89.5% correctly classified individuals. It is suggested that poor physical growth of the rural Guatemalan population, due to a stressful environment, can explain part of the metric differences observed between the North American and rural Guatemalan populations.     

Genetic mark-recapture analysis of winter faecal pellets allows estimation of population size in Sage Grouse Centrocercus urophasianus

The Sage Grouse Centrocercus urophasianus is a species of conservation concern throughout its range in western North America. Since the 1950s, the high count of males at leks has been used as an index for monitoring populations. However, the relationship between this lek-count index and population size is unclear, and its reliability for assessing population trends has been questioned. We used non-invasive genetic mark-recapture analysis of faecal and feather samples to estimate pre-breeding population size for the Parachute-Piceance-Roan, a small, geographically isolated population of Sage Grouse in western Colorado, during two consecutive winters from 2012 to 2014. We estimated total pre-breeding population size as 335 (95% confidence interval (CI): 287–382) in the first winter and 745 (95% CI: 627–864) in the second, an approximate doubling in abundance between years. Although we also observed a large increase in the spring lek-count index between those years, high male count data poorly represented mark-recapture estimates of male abundance in each year. Our data suggest that lek counts are useful for detecting the direction and magnitude of large changes in Sage Grouse abundance over time but they may not reliably reflect small changes in abundance that may be relevant to small populations of conservation concern.     

仙湖苏铁种群年龄判断及年龄结构特征

根据苏铁类植株体残存的营养叶叶基数、开花痕数以及生长单元发生率等茎干特征, 建立了仙湖苏铁种群年龄判断方法,计算出该种群年龄. 进一步采用年龄结构图、年龄分布 曲线和曲线估计等方法,从基株和无性系水平探讨了仙湖苏铁种群的年龄结构特征.年龄结构 图显示,仙湖苏铁无性系种群为稳定种群,基株种群为衰退种群;年龄分布曲线和曲线估计结 果则表明仙湖苏铁无性系和基株种群均为衰退种群. 综合3种方法的分析结果,仙湖苏铁 种群为衰退种群,必须采取一定措施予以保护.     

Estimation of capture probabilities using generalized estimating equations and mixed effects approaches

Modeling individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities has been one of the most challenging tasks in capture–recapture studies. Heterogeneity in capture probabilities can be modeled as a function of individual covariates, but correlation structure among capture occasions should be taking into account. A proposed generalized estimating equations (GEE) and generalized linear mixed modeling (GLMM) approaches can be used to estimate capture probabilities and population size for capture–recapture closed population models. An example is used for an illustrative application and for comparison with currently used methodology. A simulation study is also conducted to show the performance of the estimation procedures. Our simulation results show that the proposed quasi‐likelihood based on GEE approach provides lower SE than partial likelihood based on either generalized linear models (GLM) or GLMM approaches for estimating population size in a closed capture–recapture experiment. Estimator performance is good if a large proportion of individuals are captured. For cases where only a small proportion of individuals are captured, the estimates become unstable, but the GEE approach outperforms the other methods.