Population trends of European common birds are predicted by characteristics of their climatic niche

Temperate species are projected to experience the greatest temperature increases across a range of modelled climate change scenarios, and climate warming has been linked to geographical range and population changes of individual species at such latitudes. However, beyond the multiple modelling approaches, we lack empirical evidence of contemporary climate change impacts on populations in broad taxonomic groups and at continental scales. Identifying reliable predictors of species resilience or susceptibility to climate warming is of critical importance in assessing potential risks to species, ecosystems and ecosystem services. Here we analysed long‐term trends of 110 common breeding birds across Europe (20 countries), to identify climate niche characteristics, adjusted to other environmental and life history traits, that predict large‐scale population changes accounting for phylogenetic relatedness among species. Beyond the now well‐documented decline of farmland specialists, we found that species with the lowest thermal maxima (as the mean spring and summer temperature of the hottest part of the breeding distribution in Europe) showed the sharpest declines between 1980 and 2005. Thermal maximum predicted the recent trends independently of other potential predictors. This study emphasizes the need to account for both land‐use and climate changes to assess the fate of species. Moreover, we highlight that thermal maximum appears as a reliable and simple predictor of the long‐term trends of such endothermic species facing climate change.     

Changes in high arctic tundra plant reproduction in response to long‐term experimental warming

We provide new information on changes in tundra plant sexual reproduction in response to long‐term (12 years) experimental warming in the High Arctic. Open‐top chambers (OTCs) were used to increase growing season temperatures by 1–2 °C across a range of vascular plant communities. The warming enhanced reproductive effort and success in most species; shrubs and graminoids appeared to be more responsive than forbs. We found that the measured effects of warming on sexual reproduction were more consistently positive and to a greater degree in polar oasis compared with polar semidesert vascular plant communities. Our findings support predictions that long‐term warming in the High Arctic will likely enhance sexual reproduction in tundra plants, which could lead to an increase in plant cover. Greater abundance of vegetation has implications for primary consumers – via increased forage availability, and the global carbon budget – as a function of changes in permafrost and vegetation acting as a carbon sink. Enhanced sexual reproduction in Arctic vascular plants may lead to increased genetic variability of offspring, and consequently improved chances of survival in a changing environment. Our findings also indicate that with future warming, polar oases may play an important role as a seed source to the surrounding polar desert landscape.     

Nitrogen accumulation and distribution in Danthonia richardsonii swards in response to CO2 and nitrogen supply over four years of growth

Nitrogen‐stressed microcosms of the C3 grass Danthonia richardsonii gained nitrogen from the environment when grown under ambient or enriched (359, ‘amb’ or 719 μL L^{? 1}‘enr’, respectively) atmospheric CO₂ concentrations over a 4‐y period. This gain was apparent at all rates of supplied mineral N (2.2, 6.7 or 19.8 g N m^{? 2} y^{? 1}– low‐N, mid‐N or high‐N), although it was small at high‐N. Small losses of N occurred from the microcosm as leachate, while gaseous losses of N were estimated to be between 10% and 25% of applied mineral N. Losses of applied mineral N were slightly lower under CO₂ enrichment only at the highest rate of mineral N supply. Levels of ¹⁵N natural abundance in green leaf (δ¹⁵Ν) of ? 2‰ (amb low‐N) and of below ? 4‰ (enr low‐ & mid‐N) suggest that absorption of atmospheric NH₃ may have been a source of some of the extra N in the low and mid‐N treatments. Biological N₂ fixation, of up to 2 g m^{? 2} y^{? 1} was hypothesized to form the remainder of the environmental N source. Microcosm C:N ratio was higher under CO₂ enrichment. Nitrogen productivity of microcosm carbon gain (g C accumulated g^{? 1} leaf N day^{? 1}) was increased (up to 100%) by CO₂ enrichment at all rates of mineral N supply. Green leaf %N was reduced by CO₂ enrichment, and there was less nitrogen in the green leaf pool under CO₂ enrichment. Less, or the same amount of nitrogen was present in senesced leaf, surface litter and root under CO₂ enrichment while more nitrogen was present in the soil in organic forms, and as NH₄ + at the highest rate of mineral N supply.     

Litter quality and decomposition in Danthonia richardsonii swards in response to CO2 and nitrogen supply over four years of growth

Litter quality parameters of Danthonia richardsonii grown under CO₂ concentrations of ≈ 359 & ≈ 719 μL L^{? 1} at three mineral N supply rates (2.2, 6.7 & 19.8 g m^{? 2} y^{? 1}) were determined. C:N ratio was increased in senesced leaf (enhancement ratios, R_e/c, of 1.25–1.67), surface litter (1.34–1.64) and root (1.13–1.30) by CO₂ enrichment. After 3 years of growth, nonstructural carbohydrate concentrations were reduced in senesced leaf lamina (avg. R_e/c= 0.84) but not in root in response to CO₂ enrichment. Cellulose concentrations increased slightly in senesced leaf (avg. R_e/c= 1.07) but not in root in response to CO₂ enrichment. Lignin and polyphenolic concentrations in senesced leaf and root were not changed by CO₂ enrichment. Decomposition, measured as cumulative respiration in standard conditions in vitro, was reduced in leaf litter grown under CO₂ enrichment. Root decomposition in vitro was lower in the material produced under CO₂ enrichment at the two higher rates of mineral N supply. Significant correlations between decomposition of leaf litter and initial %N, C:N ratio and lignin:N ratio were found. Decomposition in vivo, measured as carbon disappearance from the surface litter was not affected by CO₂ concentration. Arbuscular mycorrhizal infection was not changed by CO₂ enrichment. Microbial carbon was higher under CO₂ enrichment at the two higher rates of mineral N supply. Possible reasons for the lack of effect of changes in litter quality on in‐sward decomposition rates are discussed.     

Impacts of extreme winter warming in the sub‐Arctic: growing season responses of dwarf shrub heathland

Climate change scenarios predict an increased frequency of extreme climatic events. In Arctic regions, one of the most profound of these are extreme and sudden winter warming events in which temperatures increase rapidly to above freezing, often causing snow melt across whole landscapes and exposure of ecosystems to warm temperatures. Following warming, vegetation and soils no longer insulated below snow are then exposed to rapidly returning extreme cold. Using a new experimental facility established in sub‐Arctic dwarf shrub heathland in northern Sweden, we simulated an extreme winter warming event in the field and report findings on growth, phenology and reproduction during the subsequent growing season. A 1‐week long extreme winter warming event was simulated in early March using infrared heating lamps run with or without soil warming cables. Both single short events delayed bud development of Vaccinium myrtillus by up to 3 weeks in the following spring (June) and reduced flower production by more than 80%: this also led to a near‐complete elimination of berry production in mid‐summer. Empetrum hermaphroditum also showed delayed bud development. In contrast, Vaccinium vitis‐idaea showed no delay in bud development, but instead appeared to produce a greater number of actively growing vegetative buds within plots warmed by heating lamps only. Again, there was evidence of reduced flowering and berry production in this species. While bud break was delayed, growing season measurements of growth and photosynthesis did not reveal a differential response in the warmed plants for any of the species. These results demonstrate that a single, short, extreme winter warming event can have considerable impact on bud production, phenology and reproductive effort of dominant plant species within sub‐Arctic dwarf shrub heathland. Furthermore, large interspecific differences in sensitivity are seen. These findings are of considerable concern, because they suggest that repeated events may potentially impact on the biodiversity and productivity of these systems should these extreme events increase in frequency as a result of global change. Although climate change may lengthen the growing season by earlier spring snow melt, there is a profound danger for these high‐latitude ecosystems if extreme, short‐lived warming in winter exposes plants to initial warm temperatures, but then extreme cold for the rest of the winter. Work is ongoing to determine the longer term and wider impacts of these events.     

A Race for Space? How Sphagnum fuscum stabilizes vegetation composition during long‐term climate manipulations

Strong climate warming is predicted at higher latitudes this century, with potentially major consequences for productivity and carbon sequestration. Although northern peatlands contain one‐third of the world's soil organic carbon, little is known about the long‐term responses to experimental climate change of vascular plant communities in these Sphagnum‐dominated ecosystems. We aimed to see how long‐term experimental climate manipulations, relevant to different predicted future climate scenarios, affect total vascular plant abundance and species composition when the community is dominated by mosses. During 8 years, we investigated how the vascular plant community of a Sphagnum fuscum‐dominated subarctic peat bog responded to six experimental climate regimes, including factorial combinations of summer as well as spring warming and a thicker snow cover. Vascular plant species composition in our peat bog was more stable than is typically observed in (sub)arctic experiments: neither changes in total vascular plant abundance, nor in individual species abundances, Shannon's diversity or evenness were found in response to the climate manipulations. For three key species (Empetrum hermaphroditum, Betula nana and S. fuscum) we also measured whether the treatments had a sustained effect on plant length growth responses and how these responses interacted. Contrasting with the stability at the community level, both key shrubs and the peatmoss showed sustained positive growth responses at the plant level to the climate treatments. However, a higher percentage of moss‐encroached E. hermaphroditum shoots and a lack of change in B. nana net shrub height indicated encroachment by S. fuscum, resulting in long‐term stability of the vascular community composition: in a warmer world, vascular species of subarctic peat bogs appear to just keep pace with growing Sphagnum in their race for space. Our findings contribute to general ecological theory by demonstrating that community resistance to environmental changes does not necessarily mean inertia in vegetation response.