The Willingness of Children to Lie and the Assessment of Credibility in an Ecologically Relevant Laboratory Setting

A series of 4 experiments were conducted to (a) determine the willingness of children to lie in a realistic setting, (b) compare judgments of credibility from both lay evaluations and Criterion-Based Content Analysis (CBCA), and (c) examine the effects of expert testimony regarding Statement Validity Assessment on mock jurors who were asked to make evaluations of the children's statements. In Experiment 1, 81% of children who witnessed a research assistant steal a textbook made accusations against the thief (truthful), 69% of children who did not witness the theft accused the research assistant of the theft following prompting by significant others, and 56% of the children who witnessed a significant other steal the textbook incorrectly accused the research assistant following a request from their significant other. Using the statements obtained from the children in Experiment 1, Experiments 2 and 3 found that classification accuracy of lay evaluators was significantly poorer than expert application of CBCA, which resulted in 89% classification accuracy. Finally, brief exposure to CBCA expert testimony appeared to have no benefits on mock jurors' assessments of credibility of the children's statements in Experiment 4. Implications for North American legal systems are discussed.     

Inter-rater agreement of assessed prenatal maternal occupational exposures to lead

BACKGROUND: Industrial hygienists' assessments of prenatal occupational exposures based on parental job histories is a promising approach for population-based case-control studies of birth defects and other perinatal outcomes. However, evaluations of inter-rater agreement of such assessments have been limited. METHODS: We examined inter-rater agreement of occupational lead exposure assessments of maternal job reports by industrial hygienists in a population-based case-control study of parental occupational lead exposure and low birth weight. A total of 178 jobs with potential exposure to lead during the 6 months before pregnancy to the end of pregnancy were examined. Three industrial hygienists evaluated these jobs independently for exposure to lead including probability of exposure, type of exposure, route of entry, exposure frequency, duration, and intensity. Inter-rater agreement of these assessments beyond chance was evaluated using the kappa statistic (kappa). RESULTS: In general, inter-rater agreement was greater for assessment of direct exposures than assessment of indirect exposures. However, inter-rater agreement varied with the lead exposure metric under consideration, being: 1) fair to good for type of direct exposure (i.e., inorganic or organic), respiratory exposure and frequency of exposure to direct inorganic lead, hours per day of direct (i.e., inorganic or organic), and intensity of direct inorganic exposure; 2) poor for probability and type of indirect exposure (inorganic or organic); and 3) indeterminate for frequency of direct organic exposure, frequency of indirect exposures (organic or inorganic), and intensity of direct exposures (organic or inorganic). CONCLUSION: Retrospective assessment of maternal prenatal exposures to lead by industrial hygienists can provide some reliable metrics of exposure for studies of perinatal outcomes. Reliability studies of such exposure assessments may be useful for: quantifying the reliability of derived exposure metrics; identifying exposure metrics for exposure-outcome analyses; and determining the reliability of prenatal occupational exposures to other agents of interest.     

Goldenhar syndrome, anterior encephalocele, and aqueductal stenosis following fetal primidone exposure

Fetal exposure to primidone was associated with Goldenhar syndrome, hemifacial microsomia, tetralogy of Fallot, aqueductal stenosis, and anterior encephalocele in this male infant. No similar cases in anticonvulsant-exposed pregnancies were found on literature review, despite the increased incidence of other anomalies following such exposure. Goldenhar syndrome, especially related to rare central nervous system anomalies, is reviewed. Experimental production of hemifacial microsomia by a folic acid antagonist, triaxene, is mediated via hemorrhage in the fetus. Intraventricular hemorrhage was noted in this infant as were dilated lateral and third ventricles. The hemorrhagic diathesis and/or the folic acid depletion of newborns following fetal anticonvulsant exposure may have been the underlying mechanism.     

Patient Attitudes Toward Physician's Assistants

A study was conducted in urban Los Angeles to assess patient acceptance of the use of physician''s assistants. Data collection was facilitated by the development of an attitude scale and responses were analyzed to determine differences between various socioeconomic stratifications. With a few exceptions, acceptance was highest among non-married middle-class respondents who have had some exposure to college. As to the perceived complexity of procedures a physician''s assistant might perform, 91 percent of all respondents would not object to injections administered by a physician''s assistant, but this tolerance diminishes to 34 percent in the case of first examination of a patient by a physician''s assistant if there appeared to be a serious head injury.     

Improving Risk Assessment: Priorities for Epidemiologic Research

The Epidemiology Work Group at the Workshop on Future Research for Improving Risk Assessment Methods, Of Mice, Men, and Models, held August 16 to 18, 2000, at Snowmass Village, Aspen, Colorado, concluded that in order to improve the utility of epidemiologic studies for risk assessment, methodologic research is needed in the following areas: (1) aspects of epidemiologic study designs that affect doseresponse estimation; (2) alternative methods for estimating dose in human studies; and (3) refined methods for dose-response modeling for epidemiologic data. Needed research in aspects of epidemiologic study design includes recognition and control of study biases, identification of susceptible subpopulations, choice of exposure metrics, and choice of epidemiologic risk parameters. Much of this research can be done with existing data. Research needed to improve determinants of dose in human studies includes additional individual-level data (e.g., diet, co-morbidity), development of more extensive human data for physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) dose modeling, tissue registries to increase the availability of tissue for studies of exposure/dose and susceptibility biomarkers, and biomarker data to assess exposures in humans and animals. Research needed on dose-response modeling of human studies includes more widespread application of flexible statistical methods (e.g., general additive models), development of methods to compensate for epidemiologic bias in dose-response models, improved biological models using human data, and evaluation of the benchmark dose using human data. There was consensus among the Work Group that, whereas most prior risk assessments have focused on cancer, there is a growing need for applications to other health outcomes. Developmental and reproductive effects, injuries, respiratory disease, and cardiovascular disease were identified as especially high priorities for research. It was also a consensus view that epidemiologists, industrial hygienists, and other scientists focusing on human data need to play a stronger role throughout the risk assessment process. Finally, the group agreed that there was a need to improve risk communication, particularly on uncertainty inherent in risk assessments that use epidemiologic data.     

Evaluation of two methods for assessing gene-environment interactions using data from the Danish case-control study of facial clefts

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological investigations have begun to consider gene-environment (GE) interactions as potential risk factors for many diseases, including several different birth defects. However, traditional methodological approaches for the analysis of case-control data tend to have low power for detection of interaction effects. A log-linear approach that can impose the assumption that the genotype and exposure of interest occur independently in the population has been proposed as a potentially more powerful method for assessing GE interactions but has not been widely applied in the published literature. METHODS: The present analyses were undertaken to compare the results obtained when stratified analyses and a log-linear approach were used to assess potential GE interactions. The analyses were conducted using data from a population-based, case-control study conducted in Denmark and considered associations between nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL+/-P), infant genotype for variants of RAR-alpha, TGF-alpha, TGF-beta3, and MSX1, and maternal exposure to smoking, alcohol, and multivitamins. RESULTS: Neither the stratified nor the log-linear analyses provided evidence that that risk of CL+/-P is influenced by any of the GE interactions that were evaluated, despite the potential increase in power offered by the latter approach. Further, the analyses highlight concerns regarding the power to reject the assumption of independence of the genetic and environmental factor of interest in the controls and related concerns regarding the validity of results obtained using the log-linear approach when the underlying assumption is violated. CONCLUSIONS: The potential increase in power offered by the log-linear approach is offset by concerns regarding the validity of this approach when the independence assumption is violated.     

The figure rating scale as an index of weight status of women on videotape

Objective: To determine whether Stunkard's Figure Rating Scale (FRS) is a valid and reliable index of weight status when an unbiased observer assigns the figure ratings of adult women viewed on videotape. Research Methods and Procedures: Seventy‐two women drawn from a community sample participated in a videotaped study in which height and weight were measured. The FRS is a rating scale displaying 9 silhouettes ranging from very thin to very obese. Women were assigned a figure rating “in‐person” by a research assistant (FRS used as a 17‐point scale) and by additional research assistants viewing women only on videotape (FRS used as both a 17‐ and 9‐point scale). Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated for in‐person figure ratings, mean videotape figure ratings, and BMI. Results: BMI and in‐person figure ratings were highly correlated (r = 0.91), as were BMI and both mean 17‐point videotape figure ratings and mean 9‐point videotape figure ratings (r = 0.89 and 0.87, respectively). Inter‐rater agreement for in‐person figure ratings and mean 17‐point videotape figure ratings was 0.86, and agreement between in‐person figure ratings and mean 9‐point videotape figure ratings was 0.82. Discussion: The FRS can be used as an index of women's weight status by an unbiased observer, with subjects viewed in‐person or on videotape.     

On the equivalence of case-crossover and time series methods in environmental epidemiology

The case-crossover design was introduced in epidemiology 15 years ago as a method for studying the effects of a risk factor on a health event using only cases. The idea is to compare a case's exposure immediately prior to or during the case-defining event with that same person's exposure at otherwise similar "reference" times. An alternative approach to the analysis of daily exposure and case-only data is time series analysis. Here, log-linear regression models express the expected total number of events on each day as a function of the exposure level and potential confounding variables. In time series analyses of air pollution, smooth functions of time and weather are the main confounders. Time series and case-crossover methods are often viewed as competing methods. In this paper, we show that case-crossover using conditional logistic regression is a special case of time series analysis when there is a common exposure such as in air pollution studies. This equivalence provides computational convenience for case-crossover analyses and a better understanding of time series models. Time series log-linear regression accounts for overdispersion of the Poisson variance, while case-crossover analyses typically do not. This equivalence also permits model checking for case-crossover data using standard log-linear model diagnostics.     

Can folic acid protect against congenital heart defects in down syndrome?

BACKGROUND: Several studies have suggested a protective effect of folic acid (FA) on congenital heart anomalies. Down syndrome (DS) infants are known to have a high frequency of heart anomalies. Not all children with DS suffer from heart anomalies, which raises the question whether maternal factors might affect the risk of these anomalies. Our objectives were to investigate whether first-trimester FA use protects against heart anomalies among DS children. METHODS: Women with liveborn DS children participating in the Slone Epidemiology Center Birth Defects Study between 1976 and 1997 were included. We performed case-control analyses using DS, with heart anomalies as cases and DS, without heart anomalies as controls. Subanalyses were performed for defects that have been associated with FA in non-DS populations (conotruncal, ventricular septal [VSD]) and for those that are associated with DS (ostium secundum type atrial septal defects [ASD] and endocardial cushion defects [ECD]). Exposure was defined as the use of any FA-containing product for an average of at least 4 days per week during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, whereas no exposure was defined as no use of FA in these 12 weeks. RESULTS: Of the 223 cases, 110 (49%) were exposed versus 84 (46%) of the 184 controls. After adjustment for possible confounders, no protective effect of FA was found on heart anomalies overall (OR 0.95, 95% CI: 0.61-1.47) nor separately for conotruncal defects, VSDs, ASDs, or ECDs. CONCLUSIONS: Our study does not show a protective effect of FA on heart anomalies among infants with DS.     

Living within dynamic social-ecological freshwater systems: System parameters and the role of ecological engineering

The objective of ecological engineering is to design sustainable ecosystems that integrate human communities and their natural environment for the benefit of both. In this paper, we illustrate how social-ecological modeling can be used as a tool to clarify this objective at a landscape scale for freshwater systems. Coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) are open, dynamic systems subject to both ecological and socioeconomic perturbations. Here we demonstrate the interactive effects of social and technological uncertainties on SES dynamics over time. Additionally, we integrate research on ecosystem stability, social-ecological modeling, and ecological engineering to offer guidance for research at the human-environment interface. Based on a case study of Lake Erie's Sandusky watershed, we use an integrated human-biophysical model to investigate the influence of two parameters on SES dynamics: (1) regional societal preferences that impact watershed management and (2) technological innovation that alters agricultural nutrient efficiency. Our results illustrate ways in which SES dynamics and optimum management strategies depend on societal preferences within the region, indicating a key area of uncertainty for future investigation. As guidance for SES restoration, our model results also illustrate the conditions under which technological change that increases nutrient efficiency on farms can and cannot create a win-win, or increase both human welfare and SES resistance to eutrophication simultaneously. Using these results, we elucidate the value of ecological engineering and offer guidance for assessments of ecological engineering projects using social-ecological modeling.     

Role of the undergraduate student research assistant in the new millennium

In this study, we analyze the contribution of the undergraduate student who participates in the process of generating scientific data and developing a research project using Brazilian research as an example. Historically, undergraduate students have performed the critical role of research assistants in developing countries. This aspect has been underappreciated as a means of generating scientific data in Brazilian research facilities. Brazilian educational institutions are facing major age-related generational changes among the science faculty within the next 5-10 yr. A lack of adequate support for graduate students leads to a concern that undergraduates will not be interested in choosing research assistant programs and, subsequently, academic research careers. To remedy this situation it is important to focus on ways to encourage new research careers and enhance university-industry collaborations.     

Relationship between white spot syndrome virus and indicators of quality in Penaeus monodon postlarvae in Karnataka,India

White spot disease (WSD) is a viral disease of shrimp caused by white spot syndrome virus (WSSV). Stocking WSSV-infected seed has been implicated as a major risk factor for outbreaks of WSD. In addition, the quality of postlarvae batches has been proposed as a predictor for good crops. This paper describes the relationship between indicators of quality and WSSV in postlarvae (PL) of Penaeus monodon from Karnataka, India, over the period September 1999 to January 2000. Three outcome variables were considered: the WSSV status of the PL, as determined by PCR, and 2 subjective assessments of PL quality, namely the activity of the PL and the quality of the PL as determined by research assistants and farmers, respectively. Of the 73 batches of PL, 49.3% from a random sample of farms tested positive for WSSV. After adjusting for confounding, stocking earlier in the growing season and duration of transportation were the main risk factors for the presence of WSSV. The quality assessed by farmers and the PL activity assessed by research assistants showed only fair agreement (kappa 0.252) reaffirming the subjective nature of such techniques. The only variables consistently associated with either assessment of quality in univariate analysis were PL length, number per bag and salinity of the water in the delivery bags. After adjusting for confounding, no single variable was consistently associated with PL quality and activity. The research assistants' assessment of PL activity was also associated with the hatchery and a brown-orange hepatopancreas in univariate analysis. After adjusting for confounding, a brown-orange hepatopancreas was still significant and fitted into the model together with the salinity of the water in the PL bags. The farmers' assessment of quality was associated with PL length, date of stocking and duration of transportation in both univariate and multivariable analyses. There was no relationship between quality assessment and WSSV in PCR-positive PL.     

生态系统服务建模技术研究进展

在生态系统服务评估模型的数量、类型及应用大量增加的背景下,为将生态系统服务评估有效整合到决策中,系统比较、甄别不同建模工具并筛选出适合决策需求的生态系统服务评估和模拟方法尤为必要。因此,归纳并总结了国内外现有的生态系统服务评估模型的建模技术,包括:相关关系法、生物-物理过程法以及专家知识法;分别对其原理、差异、优缺点以及适用性进行了详尽阐释。大多数相关模型侧重于统计关系,相对容易创建和扩展,适用于生态系统服务的初始评估;生物-物理过程模型难以构建且不易获取,但提供了探索人-地系统相互作用和长期变化的有效机制;专家知识法有效结合了多种类型的知识体系,关注人类社会与自然系统之间反馈和交互动态的系统整合,但当评估地点发生变化时难以验证。在此基础上,介绍了基于上述3种建模技术的典型生态系统服务综合评估模型的发展和应用现状。各类建模技术面临着实用性和科学准确性之间的权衡。通过对不同建模技术的梳理与整合分析旨在提升当前生态系统服务研究的决策支撑能力,并为国内相关研究提供参考和借鉴。     

Review of Information Resources to Support Human Exposure Assessment Models

Efforts to model human exposures to chemicals are growing more sophisticated and encompass increasingly complex exposure scenarios. The scope of such analyses has increased, growing from assessments of single exposure pathways to complex evaluations of aggregate or cumulative chemical exposures occurring within a variety of settings and scenarios. In addition, quantitative modeling techniques have evolved from simple deterministic analyses using single point estimates for each necessary input parameter to more detailed probabilistic analyses that can accommodate distributions of input parameters and assessment results. As part of an overall effort to guide development of a comprehensive framework for modeling human exposures to chemicals, available information resources needed to derive input parameters for human exposure assessment models were compiled and critically reviewed. Ongoing research in the area of exposure assessment parameters was also identified. The results of these efforts are summarized and other relevant information that will be needed to apply the available data in a comprehensive exposure model is discussed. Critical data gaps in the available information are also identified. Exposure assessment modeling and associated research would benefit from the collection of additional data as well as by enhancing the accessibility of existing and evolving information resources.     

Weak extremely-low-frequency magnetic field-induced regeneration anomalies in the planarian Dugesia tigrina

We recently reported that cephalic regeneration in the planarian Dugesia tigrina was significantly delayed in populations exposed continuously to combined parallel DC and AC magnetic fields. This effect was consistent with hypotheses suggesting an underlying resonance phenomenon. We report here, in a parallel series of investigations on the same model system, that the incidence of regeneration anomalies presenting as tumor-like protuberances also increases significantly (P < .001) in association with exposure to weak 60 Hz magnetic fields, with peak intensities ranging between 1.0 and 80.0 μT. These anomalies often culminate in the complete disaggregation of the organism. Similar to regeneration rate effects, the incidence of regeneration anomalies is specifically dependent upon the planaria possessing a fixed orientation with respect to the applied magnetic field vectors. However, unlike the regeneration rate effects, the AC magnetic field alone, in the absence of any measurable DC field, is capable of producing these anomalies. Moreover, the incidence of regeneration anomalies follows a clear dose-response relationship as a function of AC magnetic field intensity, with the threshold for induced electric field intensity estimated at 5 μV/m. The addition of either 51.1 or 78.4 μT DC magnetic fields, applied in parallel combination with the AC field, enhances the appearance of anomalies relative to the 60 Hz AC field alone, but only at certain AC field intensities. Thus, whereas our previous study of regeneration rate effects appeared to involve exclusively resonance interactions, the regeneration anomalies reported here appear to result primarily from Faraday induction coupling. These results together with those reported previously point to two distinct physiological effects produced in regenerating planaria by exposure to weak extremely-low-frequency (ELF) magnetic fields. They further suggest that the planarian, which has recently been identified elsewhere as an excellent system for use in teratogenic investigations involving chemical teratogens, might be used similarly in teratogenic investigations involving ELF magnetic fields. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

What Can Be Done to Ensure the Usefulness of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Purposes?

Epidemiologic studies can play a central role in risk assessments. They are used in all risk assessment phases: hazard identification, dose-response, and exposure assessment. Epidemiologic studies have often been the first to show that a particular environmental exposure is a hazard to health. They have numerous advantages with respect to other sources of data which are used in risk assessments, the most important being that they do not require the assumption that they are generalizable to humans. For this reason, fewer and lower uncertainty factors may be appropriate in risk characterization based on epidemiologic studies. Unfortunately, epidemiologic studies have numerous problems, the most important being that the exposures are often not precisely measured. This article presents in detail the advantages of and problems with epidemiologic studies. It discusses two approaches to ensure their usefulness, biomarkers and an ordinance which requires baseline and subsequent surveillance of possible exposures and health effects from newly sited potentially polluting facilities. Biomarkers are biochemical measures of exposure, susceptibility factors, or preclinical pathological changes. Biomarkers are a way of dealing with the problems of poor measures, differential susceptibility and lack of early measures of disease occurrence that inherent in many environmental epidemiologic studies. The advantages of biomarkers is they can provide objective information on exposure days, months or even years later and evidence of pathology perhaps years earlier. The ordinance makes possible the use of a powerful epidemiologic study design, the prospective cohort study, where confounder(s) are best measured, and exposures, pathological changes, and health effects can be detected as soon as possible.     

Effects function analysis of ELF magnetic field exposure in the electric utility work environment

The incomplete understanding of the relation between power-frequency fields and biological responses raises problems in defining an appropriate metric for exposure assessment and epidemiological studies. Based on evidence from biological experiments, one can define alternative metrics or effects functions that embody the relationship between field exposure patterns and hypothetical health effects. In this paper, we explore the application of the “effects function” approach to occupational exposure data. Our analysis provides examples of exposure assessments based on a range of plausible effects functions. An EMDEX time series data set of ELF frequency (40–800 Hz) magnetic field exposure measurements for electric utility workers was analyzed with several statistical measures and effects functions: average field strength, combination of threshold and exposure duration, and field strength changes. Results were compared for eight job categories: electrician, substation operator, machinist, welder, plant operator, lineman/splicer, meter reader, and clerical. Average field strength yields a different ranking for these job categories than the ranks obtained using other biologically plausible effects functions. Whereas the group of electricians has the highest exposure by average field strength, the group of substation operators has the highest ranking for most of the other effects functions. Plant operators rank highest in the total number of field strength changes greater than 1 μT per hour. The clerical group remains at the lowest end for all of these effects functions. Our analysis suggests that, although average field strength could be used as a surrogate of field exposure for simply classifying exposure into “low” and “high,” this summary measure may be misleading in the relative ranking of job categories in which workers are in “high” fields. These results indicate the relevance of metrics other than average field strength in occupational exposure assessment and in the design and analysis of epidemiological studies. Bioelectromagnetics 18:365–375, 1997. © 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Predictive value of minor anomalies: II. Use in cohort studies to identify teratogens

Cohort studies of putative human teratogens can identify the full spectrum of phenotypic effects, including both major malformations and minor anomalies. Cohort studies which include the much more common minor anomalies make it possible to use a relatively small number of exposed and unexposed infants to identify an increase in the frequency of malformations. We evaluated this use of minor anomalies in a cohort study of newborn infants who had been exposed in utero to three putative teratogens: insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus in the mother and the use of the anticonvulsant phenytoin and exogenous sex hormones by the mother. In addition, the reproducibility of identifying minor anomalies was tested by comparing the results of examinations by two independent observers of 444 unexposed infants. The frequency of minor anomalies was increased among infants of diabetic mothers. However, the reproducibility of identifying minor anomalies was poor. We conclude that the examination of teratogen-exposed infants for minor anomalies cannot be used in epidemiologic studies of putative teratogens unless special efforts are made to maximize consistency in the identification of these features.     

Measurement error caused by spatial misalignment in environmental epidemiology

In many environmental epidemiology studies, the locations and/or times of exposure measurements and health assessments do not match. In such settings, health effects analyses often use the predictions from an exposure model as a covariate in a regression model. Such exposure predictions contain some measurement error as the predicted values do not equal the true exposures. We provide a framework for spatial measurement error modeling, showing that smoothing induces a Berkson-type measurement error with nondiagonal error structure. From this viewpoint, we review the existing approaches to estimation in a linear regression health model, including direct use of the spatial predictions and exposure simulation, and explore some modified approaches, including Bayesian models and out-of-sample regression calibration, motivated by measurement error principles. We then extend this work to the generalized linear model framework for health outcomes. Based on analytical considerations and simulation results, we compare the performance of all these approaches under several spatial models for exposure. Our comparisons underscore several important points. First, exposure simulation can perform very poorly under certain realistic scenarios. Second, the relative performance of the different methods depends on the nature of the underlying exposure surface. Third, traditional measurement error concepts can help to explain the relative practical performance of the different methods. We apply the methods to data on the association between levels of particulate matter and birth weight in the greater Boston area.