Effects of Forest Regrowth and Urbanization on Ecosystem Carbon Storage in a Rural–Urban Gradient in the Southeastern United States

Forest regrowth after cropland abandonment and urban sprawl are two counteracting processes that have influenced carbon (C) sequestration in the southeastern United States in recent decades. In this study, we examined patterns of land-use/land-cover change and their effect on ecosystem C storage in three west Georgia counties (Muscogee, Harris, and Meriwether) that form a rural–urban gradient. Using time series Landsat imagery data including MSS for 1974, TM for 1983 and 1991, and ETM for 2002, we estimate that from 1974 to 2002, urban land use in the area has increased more than 380% (that is, 184 km²). Most newly urbanized land (63%) has been converted from forestland. Conversely, cropland and pasture area has decreased by over 59% (that is, 380 km²). Most of the cropland area was converted to forest. As a result, the net change in forest area was small over the past 29 years. Based on Landsat imagery and agricultural census records, we reconstructed an annual gridded data set of land-cover change for the three counties for the period 1850 to 2002. These data sets were then used as input to the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to simulate land-use effects on C fluxes and storage for the study area. Simulated results suggest that C uptake by forest regrowth (approximately 23.0 g C m⁻² y⁻¹) was slightly greater than the amount of C released due to deforestation (approximately 18.4 g C m⁻² y⁻¹), thus making the three counties a weak C sink. However, the relative importance of different deforestation processes in this area changed significantly through time. Although agricultural deforestation was generally the most important C-release process, the amount of C release attributable to urbanization has increased over time. Since 1990, urbanization has accounted for 29% of total C loss from the study area. We conclude that balancing urban development and forest protection is critically important for C management and policy making in the southeastern United States.     

Smoking Behavior and Healthcare Expenditure in the United States, 1992–2009: Panel Data Estimates

BackgroundReductions in smoking in Arizona and California have been shown to be associated with reduced per capita healthcare expenditures in these states compared to control populations in the rest of the US. This paper extends that analysis to all states and estimates changes in healthcare expenditure attributable to changes in aggregate measures of smoking behavior in all states.ConclusionsChanges in healthcare expenditure appear quickly after changes in smoking behavior. A 10% relative drop in smoking in every state is predicted to be followed by an expected $63 billion reduction (in 2012 US dollars) in healthcare expenditure the next year. State and national policies that reduce smoking should be part of short term healthcare cost containment.     

Suburbanization and segregation in the United States: 1970–2010

Analysis of trends in the suburbanization of whites, blacks, Asians, and Hispanics reveal that all groups are becoming more suburbanized, though the gap between whites and minorities remains large. Although central cities have made the transition to a majority-minority configuration, suburbs are still overwhelmingly white. Levels of minority-white segregation are nonetheless lower in suburbs than in cities. Blacks remain the most segregated group at both locations. Black segregation and isolation levels are declining in cities and suburbs; however, while Hispanic and Asian segregation levels have remained stable, spatial isolation levels have risen. Multivariate analyses suggest that Hispanics achieve desegregation indirectly by using socio-economic achievements to gain access to less-segregated suburban communities and directly by translating their status attainments into residence in white neighbourhoods. Blacks do not achieve desegregation indirectly through suburbanization and they are much less able than Hispanics to use their socio-economic attainments directly to enter white neighbourhoods.     

Occurrence of the Root Rot Pathogen,Fusarium commune,in Forest Nurseries of?the Midwestern and Western United States

Fusarium commune can cause damping‐off and root rot of conifer seedlings in forest nurseries, and this pathogen has been previously reported from Oregon, Idaho, and Washington, USA. We collected Fusarium isolates from additional nurseries in the midwestern and western USA to more fully determine occurrence of this pathogen. We used DNA sequences of the mitochondrial small subunit gene to identify F. commune. In addition to confirming the occurrence of F. commune in Oregon, Idaho, and Washington, USA, we also discovered that F. commune is even more widespread with this first report of F. commune occurring in Nevada, Montana, Nebraska, and Michigan, USA.     

Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People,Future Generations and Nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.     

Does Forest Scarcity Affect the Collection and Use of Firewood by Rural Communities? A Case Study in the Atlantic Forest of Northeastern Brazil

Many rural communities no longer have abundant forest areas for firewood collection. Based on this scenario, we evaluated how the scarcity of forest environments influences the collection and use of this resource in rural areas. A community located in the Atlantic Forest region of northeastern Brazil, which already lacks forest areas for firewood, was selected for field research. We observed that despite this context of forest scarcity, firewood remains the main source of fuel energy in the community. In total, 27 species of wood were cited, with an emphasis on exotic species in terms of number of citations. The perceived wood quality explained the frequency of plant use, but not the number of consumers. This can be explained by the difficulty of access to some species considered of better quality, because in the studied region, the plants are usually collected in private areas. Efforts in conservation strategies are recommended to encourage an increase in the frequency of use of the available exotic species in order to safeguard the native ones.     

Duration of Adulthood Overweight,Obesity, and Cancer Risk in the Women’s Health Initiative: A Longitudinal Study from the United States

BackgroundHigh body mass index (BMI) has become the leading risk factor of disease burden in high-income countries. While recent studies have suggested that the risk of cancer related to obesity is mediated by time, insights into the dose-response relationship and the cumulative impact of overweight and obesity during the life course on cancer risk remain scarce. To our knowledge, this study is the first to assess the impact of adulthood overweight and obesity duration on the risk of cancer in a large cohort of postmenopausal women.ConclusionsIn summary, this study showed that a longer duration of overweight and obesity is associated with an increased risk of developing several forms of cancer. Furthermore, the degree of overweight experienced during adulthood seemed to play an important role in the risk of developing cancer, especially for endometrial cancer. Although the observational nature of our study precludes inferring causality or making clinical recommendations, our findings suggest that reducing overweight duration in adulthood could reduce cancer risk and that obesity prevention is important from early onset. If this is true, health care teams should recognize the potential of obesity management in cancer prevention and that excess body weight in women is important to manage regardless of the age of the patient.     

A period analysis of parity distribution among white and nonwhite women in the United States, 1940–1974

Abstract

The historical trends of childlessness and of one‐child, two‐child, and three‐or‐more‐child families among white and nonwhite women in the United States are studied in terms of period fertility tables. Given the age and parity of a woman, we can read from the fertility tables how her parity is expected to change at successive ages during the rest of her childbearing period, if she is subjected to the age‐parity‐specific fertility rates for a particular year. The fertility tables for white and nonwhite women are constructed for the years 1940, 19S0, 1960, 1970, and 1974. These tables show that among white women who have completed their childbearing (with period rates), the percentage with more than two children has decreased from 66 in 1960 to 27 in 1974, whereas the corresponding reduction among nonwhite women is from 67 to 48 per cent (Table 1, Case 1).     

Better than nature: the changing treatment of asthma and hay fever in the United States, 1910–1945

Through the early twentieth century, asthmatics were advised to move to a more suitable climate, or to vacation in one during their worst season. In the late nineteenth century, physicians sought to quantify the ideal temperature, humidity, altitude, and pollen count to help travellers to select a suitable place, but these investigations led some physicians to question contradictions between expected and actual conditions. Given that even the best climate was not perfect at all times, and that many patients could not afford to travel or relocate, a group of physicians—who came to be known as allergists—sought ways to adapt their patients to any climate through changes in their indoor environments and treatments to manage their symptoms. Their approach included changes in household design, furnishings, and cleaning techniques, especially a strict avoidance of dust, which could carry feathers, animal hair, skin debris, pollen, moulds, and an unknown ‘dust’ allergen. Air filtering and air conditioning were also promoted as ways to protect asthmatics and hay fever sufferers. These modifications of patients and their microenvironments signalled both a move away from climactic approaches to asthma and toward the sanitary, modernist home of the twentieth century.     

Survival after a diagnosis of testicular germ cell cancers in Germany and the United States, 2002–2006: A high resolution study by histology and age

Introduction: The aim of this study was to provide detailed age-specific (5-year age groups) and histology-specific (histologic subtypes of seminoma and nonseminoma) relative survival estimates of testicular germ cell cancer patients in Germany and the United States (U.S.) for the years 2002–2006 and to compare these estimates between countries. Methods: We pooled data from 11 cancer registries of Germany and used data from the U.S. (SEER-13 database) including 11,508 and 10,774 newly diagnosed cases (1997–2006) in Germany and the U.S., respectively. We estimated 5-year relative survival (5-year-RS) by histology and age based on period analysis. Results: 5-year-RS for testicular germ cell tumors was 96.7% and 96.3% in Germany and the U.S., respectively. 5-Year-RS for spermatocytic seminoma was close to 100% in both countries. 5-Year-RS for nonseminoma was lower than for classical seminoma in Germany (93.3% versus 97.6%) and the U.S. (91.0% versus 98.2%). Among nonseminomas, choriocarcinomas provided the lowest 5-year-RS in both countries (Germany 80.1%, U.S. 79.6%). Age-specific 5-year-RS for seminoma showed only little variation by age. 5-Year-RS for nonseminomas tended to be lower at higher ages, especially for malignant teratoma. Discussion: This is the first study that provides up-to-date survival estimates for testicular cancer by histology and age in Germany and the U.S. Survival after a diagnosis of testicular cancer is very comparable between Germany and the U.S. 5-Year-RS for spermatocytic seminoma was close to 100% and the lowest 5-year-RS occurred among choriocarcinoma. Higher age at diagnosis is associated with a poorer prognosis among nonseminoma patients.     

A Comparative Study of the Spatial Distribution of Schistosomiasis in Mali in 1984–1989 and 2004–2006

Background

We investigated changes in the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in Mali following a decade of donor-funded control and a further 12 years without control.

Methodology/Principal Findings

National pre-intervention cross-sectional schistosomiasis surveys were conducted in Mali in 1984–1989 (in communities) and again in 2004–2006 (in schools). Bayesian geostatistical models were built separately for each time period and on the datasets combined across time periods. In the former, data from one period were used to predict prevalence of schistosome infections for the other period, and in the latter, the models were used to determine whether spatial autocorrelation and covariate effects were consistent across periods. Schistosoma haematobium prevalence was 25.7% in 1984–1989 and 38.3% in 2004–2006; S. mansoni prevalence was 7.4% in 1984–1989 and 6.7% in 2004–2006 (note the models showed no significant difference in mean prevalence of either infection between time periods). Prevalence of both infections showed a focal spatial pattern and negative associations with distance from perennial waterbodies, which was consistent across time periods. Spatial models developed using 1984–1989 data were able to predict the distributions of both schistosome species in 2004–2006 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was typically >0.7) and vice versa.

Conclusions/Significance

A decade after the apparently successful conclusion of a donor-funded schistosomiasis control programme from 1982–1992, national prevalence of schistosomiasis had rebounded to pre-intervention levels. Clusters of schistosome infections occurred in generally the same areas accross time periods, although the precise locations varied. To achieve long-term control, it is essential to plan for sustainability of ongoing interventions, including stengthening endemic country health systems.     

“Culling the Herd”: Eugenics and the Conservation Movement in the United States, 1900–1940

While from a late twentieth- and early twenty-first century perspective, the ideologies of eugenics (controlled reproduction to eliminate the genetically unfit and promote the reproduction of the genetically fit) and environmental conservation and preservation, may seem incompatible, they were promoted simultaneously by a number of figures in the progressive era in the decades between 1900 and 1950. Common to the two movements were the desire to preserve the “best” in both the germ plasm of the human population and natural environments (including not only natural resources, but also undisturbed nature preserves such as state and national parks and forests). In both cases advocates sought to use the latest advances in science to bolster and promote their plans, which in good progressive style, involved governmental planning and social control. This article explores the interaction of eugenic and conservationist ideologies in the careers of Sacramento banker and developer Charles M. Goethe and his friend and mentor, wealthy New York lawyer Madison Grant. In particular, the article suggests how metaphors of nature supported active work in both arenas.     

Geotemporal Analysis of Neisseria meningitidis Clones in the United States: 2000–2005

Background

The detection of meningococcal outbreaks relies on serogrouping and epidemiologic definitions. Advances in molecular epidemiology have improved the ability to distinguish unique Neisseria meningitidis strains, enabling the classification of isolates into clones. Around 98% of meningococcal cases in the United States are believed to be sporadic.

Methods

Meningococcal isolates from 9 Active Bacterial Core surveillance sites throughout the United States from 2000 through 2005 were classified according to serogroup, multilocus sequence typing, and outer membrane protein (porA, porB, and fetA) genotyping. Clones were defined as isolates that were indistinguishable according to this characterization. Case data were aggregated to the census tract level and all non-singleton clones were assessed for non-random spatial and temporal clustering using retrospective space-time analyses with a discrete Poisson probability model.

Results

Among 1,062 geocoded cases with available isolates, 438 unique clones were identified, 78 of which had ≥2 isolates. 702 cases were attributable to non-singleton clones, accounting for 66.0% of all geocoded cases. 32 statistically significant clusters comprised of 107 cases (10.1% of all geocoded cases) were identified. Clusters had the following attributes: included 2 to 11 cases; 1 day to 33 months duration; radius of 0 to 61.7 km; and attack rate of 0.7 to 57.8 cases per 100,000 population. Serogroups represented among the clusters were: B (n = 12 clusters, 45 cases), C (n = 11 clusters, 27 cases), and Y (n = 9 clusters, 35 cases); 20 clusters (62.5%) were caused by serogroups represented in meningococcal vaccines that are commercially available in the United States.

Conclusions

Around 10% of meningococcal disease cases in the U.S. could be assigned to a geotemporal cluster. Molecular characterization of isolates, combined with geotemporal analysis, is a useful tool for understanding the spread of virulent meningococcal clones and patterns of transmission in populations.     

Survival of Colonizing Wolves in the Northern Rocky Mountains of the United States, 1982–2004

Abstract: After roughly a 60-year absence, wolves (Canis lupus) immigrated (1979) and were reintroduced (1995-1996) into the northern Rocky Mountains (NRM), USA, where wolves are protected under the Endangered Species Act. The wolf recovery goal is to restore an equitably distributed metapopulation of ≥30 breeding pairs and 300 wolves in Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming, while minimizing damage to livestock; ultimately, the objective is to establish state-managed conservation programs for wolf populations in NRM. Previously, wolves were eradicated from the NRM because of excessive human killing. We used Andersen–Gill hazard models to assess biological, habitat, and anthropogenic factors contributing to current wolf mortality risk and whether federal protection was adequate to provide acceptably low hazards. We radiocollared 711 wolves in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming (e.g., NRM region of the United States) from 1982 to 2004 and recorded 363 mortalities. Overall, annual survival rate of wolves in the recovery areas was 0.750 (95% CI = 0.728-0.772), which is generally considered adequate for wolf population sustainability and thereby allowed the NRM wolf population to increase. Contrary to our prediction, wolf mortality risk was higher in the northwest Montana (NWMT) recovery area, likely due to less abundant public land being secure wolf habitat compared to other recovery areas. In contrast, lower hazards in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) and central Idaho (CID) likely were due to larger core areas that offered stronger wolf protection. We also found that wolves collared for damage management purposes (targeted sample) had substantially lower survival than those collared for monitoring purposes (representative sample) because most mortality was due to human factors (e.g., illegal take, control). This difference in survival underscores the importance of human-caused mortality in this recovering NRM population. Other factors contributing to increased mortality risk were pup and yearling age class, or dispersing status, which was related to younger age cohorts. When we included habitat variables in our analysis, we found that wolves having abundant agricultural and private land as well as livestock in their territory had higher mortality risk. Wolf survival was higher in areas with increased wolf density, implying that secure core habitat, particularly in GYA and CID, is important for wolf protection. We failed to detect changes in wolf hazards according to either gender or season. Maintaining wolves in NWMT will require greater attention to human harvest, conflict resolution, and illegal mortality than in either CID or GYA; however, if human access increases in the future in either of the latter 2 areas hazards to wolves also may increase. Indeed, because overall suitable habitat is more fragmented and the NRM has higher human access than many places where wolves roam freely and are subject to harvest (e.g., Canada and AK), monitoring of wolf vital rates, along with concomitant conservation and management strategies directed at wolves, their habitat, and humans, will be important for ensuring long-term viability of wolves in the region.     

A Multi-Level Bayesian Analysis of Racial Bias in Police Shootings at the County-Level in the United States, 2011–2014

A geographically-resolved, multi-level Bayesian model is used to analyze the data presented in the U.S. Police-Shooting Database (USPSD) in order to investigate the extent of racial bias in the shooting of American civilians by police officers in recent years. In contrast to previous work that relied on the FBI’s Supplemental Homicide Reports that were constructed from self-reported cases of police-involved homicide, this data set is less likely to be biased by police reporting practices. County-specific relative risk outcomes of being shot by police are estimated as a function of the interaction of: 1) whether suspects/civilians were armed or unarmed, and 2) the race/ethnicity of the suspects/civilians. The results provide evidence of a significant bias in the killing of unarmed black Americans relative to unarmed white Americans, in that the probability of being {black, unarmed, and shot by police} is about 3.49 times the probability of being {white, unarmed, and shot by police} on average. Furthermore, the results of multi-level modeling show that there exists significant heterogeneity across counties in the extent of racial bias in police shootings, with some counties showing relative risk ratios of 20 to 1 or more. Finally, analysis of police shooting data as a function of county-level predictors suggests that racial bias in police shootings is most likely to emerge in police departments in larger metropolitan counties with low median incomes and a sizable portion of black residents, especially when there is high financial inequality in that county. There is no relationship between county-level racial bias in police shootings and crime rates (even race-specific crime rates), meaning that the racial bias observed in police shootings in this data set is not explainable as a response to local-level crime rates.     

Fetal Growth and Risk of Stillbirth: A Population-Based Case–Control Study

Background

Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a population-based case–control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (<10th percentile) or large for gestational age (LGA) (>90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (<5th and >95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced with reference values. However, a sensitivity analysis using individualized norms based on the subset of stillbirths and live births with non-missing variables showed similar findings.

Conclusions

Stillbirth is associated with both growth restriction and excessive fetal growth. These findings suggest that, contrary to current practices and recommendations, stillbirth prevention strategies should focus on both severe SGA and severe LGA pregnancies. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary