Transient dynamics limit the effectiveness of keystone predation in bringing about coexistence

We analyze the transient dynamics of simple models of keystone predation, in which a predator preferentially consumes the dominant of two (or more) competing prey species. We show that coexistence is unlikely in many systems characterized both by successful invasion of either prey species into the food web that lacks it and by a stable equilibrium with high densities of all species. Invasion of the predator-resistant consumer species often causes the resident, more vulnerable prey to crash to such low densities that extinction would occur for many realistic population sizes. Subsequent transient cycles may entail very low densities of the predator or of the initially successful invader, which may also preclude coexistence of finite populations. Factors causing particularly low minimum densities during the transient cycles include biotic limiting resources for the prey, limited resource partitioning between the prey, a highly efficient predator with relatively slow dynamics, and a vulnerable prey whose population dynamics are rapid relative to the less vulnerable prey. Under these conditions, coexistence of competing prey via keystone predation often requires that the prey's competitive or antipredator characteristics fall within very narrow ranges. Similar transient crashes are likely to occur in other food webs and food web models.     

From chaos to chaos. An analysis of a discrete age-structured prey–predator model

Discrete age-structured density-dependent one-population models and discrete age-structured density-dependent prey–predator models are considered. Regarding the former, we present formal proofs of the nature of bifurcations involved as well as presenting some new results about the dynamics in unstable and chaotic parameter regions. Regarding the latter, we show that increased predation may act both as a stabilizing and a destabilizing effect. Moreover, we find that possible periodic dynamics of low period, either exact or approximate, may not be generated by the predator, but it may be generated by the prey. Finally, what is most interesting from the biological point of view, is that given that the prey, in absence of the predator, exhibits periodic or almost periodic oscillations of low period, then the introduction of the predator does not alter this periodicity in any substantial way until the stabilizing effect of increased predation becomes so strong that a stable equilibrium is achieved. Received: 16 June 2000 / Revised version: 18 January 2001 / Published online: 12 October 2001     

Predator kairomones change food web structure and function,regardless of cues from consumed prey

Predation risk in aquatic systems is often assessed by prey through chemical cues, either those released by prey or by the predator itself. Many studies on predation risk focus on simple pairwise interactions, with only a few studies examining community‐level and ecosystem responses to predation risk in species‐rich food webs. Further, of these few community‐level studies, most assume that prey primarily assess predation risk through chemical cues from consumed prey, even heterospecific prey, rather than just those released by the predator. Here, we compared the effects of different predation cues (predator presence with or without consumed prey) on the structure and functioning of a speciose aquatic food web housed in tropical bromeliads. We found that the mere presence of the top predator (a damselfly) had a strong cascading effect on the food web, propagating down to nutrient cycling. This predation risk cue had no effect on the identity of colonizing species, but strongly reduced the abundance and biomass of the macroinvertebrate colonists. As a result, bacterial biomass and nitrogen cycling doubled, with a concomitant decrease in bacterial production, but CO₂ flux was unaffected. These community and ecosystem effects of predator presence cues were not amplified by the addition of chemical cues from consumed prey. Our results show that some of the consequences of predation risk observed in controlled experiments with simplified food webs may be observed in a natural, species‐rich food web.     

The evolution of traits affecting resource acquisition and predator vulnerability: character displacement under real and apparent competition

This article investigates some simple models of the evolutionary interaction between two prey species that share a common resource and a common predator. Each prey species is characterized by a trait that determines both the rate of resource capture and vulnerability to a predator. In a simple model of a three-species food chain, such traits usually increase in response to an imposed reduction in resource density. When the per capita growth rates of each of two prey species depend linearly on resource density, such traits will change in opposite directions when the two prey come into sympatry. In addition, the ratio of the effect of the predator on prey fitness to the effect of the resource on prey fitness will diverge from the corresponding ratio in a second prey species when those species coexist in sympatry. These simple predictions need not hold under several alternative assumptions, which may be more common in biological systems. Parallel changes in sympatry may occur if the relationship between resource consumption and prey growth is nonlinear, if the prey species have partial overlap in the set of resources used or in the set of predators that consume them, or if prey experience direct intraspecific competition. The responses to a second prey can also differ significantly from those predicted by the simplest model if separate traits affect vulnerability to predators and resource acquisition rate. It is important to determine whether examples of character displacement previously interpreted as responses to competition for resources might also reflect responses to altered predation risks in sympatry.     

Modeling direct positive feedback between predators and prey

Predators can have positive impacts on their prey through such mechanisms as nutrient mineralization and prey transport. These positive feedbacks have the potential to change predictions based on food web theory, such as the assertion that enrichment is destabilizing. We present a model of a simple food web, consisting of a resource, a consumer, and its predator. We assume that the predator has a direct positive effect on the consumer, by increasing the rate at which the consumer acquires resources. We consider two cases: the feedback strength is a saturating function of predator density, or it is proportional to the encounter rate between predators and prey. In both cases, the positive feedback is stabilizing, delaying or preventing the onset of oscillations due to enrichment. Positive feedback can introduce an Allee effect for the predator population, yielding multiple stable equilibria. Strong positive feedback can yield counterintuitive results such as a transient increase in consumer density following the introduction of predators, and a decrease in the resource pool following enrichment.     

Effect of scavenging on predation in a food web

Scavenging can have important consequences for food web dynamics, for example, it may support additional consumer species and affect predation on live prey. Still, few food web models include scavenging. We develop a dynamic model that includes two facultative scavenger species, which we refer to as the predator or scavenger species according to their natural scavenging propensity, as well as live prey, and a carrion pool to show ramifications of scavenging for predation in simple food webs. Our modeling suggests that the presence of scavengers can both increase and decrease predator kill rates and overall predation in model food webs and the impact varies (in magnitude and direction) with context. In particular, we explore the impact of the amount of dynamics (exploitative competition) allowed in the predator, scavenger, and prey populations as well as the direction and magnitude of interference competition between predators and scavengers. One fundamental prediction is that scavengers most likely increase predator kill rates, especially if there are exploitative feedback effects on the prey or carrion resources like is normally observed in natural systems. Scavengers only have minimal effects on predator kill rate when predator, scavenger, and prey abundances are kept constant by management. In such controlled systems, interference competition can greatly affect the interactions in contrast to more natural systems, with an increase in interference competition leading to a decrease in predator kill rate. Our study adds to studies that show that the presence of predators affects scavenger behavior, vital rates, and food web structure, by showing that scavengers impact predator kill rates through multiple mechanisms, and therefore indicating that scavenging and predation patterns are tightly intertwined. We provide a road map to the different theoretical outcomes and their support from different empirical studies on vertebrate guilds to provide guidance in wildlife management.     

Influence of consumer mutual interference on the stabilization of a three-level trophic system

In this paper, we present a three-level (food–prey–predator) trophic food chain which includes consumer mutual interference (MIF). In contrast with other analyses, we consider the effect of both prey and predator MIF on the dynamics of a three-level trophic system. MIF is generally considered to exert a stabilizing effect on population dynamics based on the predator–prey model. However, results from analytical and numerical simulations utilizing a simple three-species food chain model suggest that while the addition of prey MIF to the model provides a stabilizing influence, as the chaotic dynamics collapse to a stable steady state, adding only predator MIF to the model can only stabilize the system at intermediate MIF values. The three-species trophic food chain is also stabilized when combination of both prey and predator MIF is added to the model. Our work serves to provide insight into the effects of MIF in the real world.     

Effects of resources and predation on the predictability of community composition

When does community assembly lead to a predictable species composition and when does this process depend on chance events, such as the timing of species arrivals? We studied the combined effects of enrichment and predation on the occurrence of priority effects, i.e. dependency on the timing of arrival, using a model of a small food web consisting of a predator, two competing prey and interference through allelopathy. Our analysis shows the conditions under which priority effects can occur. In the system we studied, the interfering species has to be the weaker resource exploiter of the two consumers, or it has to be more susceptible to predation. When it is the weaker resource exploiter, a minimum level of nutrient input is required for interference to be strong enough to cause a priority effect. When the interfering species is more susceptible to predation, a priority effect actually requires predation, which in itself also requires a minimum level of nutrient inflow. However, the priority effect disappears when predation pressure rises above a threshold value, also when the two competitors are equally preferred by the predator. This is so because predation reduces population densities and thereby the strength of interference. Our analyses make clear how the effects of resources and predation can combine to result in the absence or presence of priority effects during community assembly.     

High food quality of prey lowers its risk of extinction

The mineral and biochemical food quality of prey may limit predator production. This well‐studied direct bottom–up effect is especially prominent for herbivore–plant interactions. Low‐quality prey species, particularly when defended, are generally considered to be less prone to predator‐driven extinction. Undefended high‐quality prey species sustain high predator production thereby potentially increasing their own extinction risk. The food quality of primary producers is highly species‐specific. In communities of competing prey species, predators thus may supplement their diets of low‐quality prey with high‐quality prey, leading to indirect horizontal interactions between prey species of different food quality. We explore how these predator‐mediated indirect interactions affect species coexistence in a general predator–prey model that is parametrized for an experimental algae– rotifer system. To cover a broad range of three essential functional traits that shape many plant–herbivore interactions we consider differences in 1) the food quality of the prey species, 2) their competitive ability for nutrient uptake and 3) their defence against predation. As expected, low food quality of prey can, similarly to defence, provide protection against extinction by predation. Counterintuitively, our simulations demonstrate that being of high food quality also prevents extinction of that prey species and additionally promotes coexistence with a competing, low‐quality prey. The persistence of the high‐quality prey enables a high conversion efficiency and control of the low‐quality prey by the predator and allows for re‐allocation of nutrients to the high‐quality competitor. Our results show that high food quality is not necessarily detrimental for a prey species but instead can protect against extinction and promote species richness and functional biodiversity.     

Dynamics of a intraguild predation model with generalist or specialist predator

Intraguild predation (IGP) is a combination of competition and predation which is the most basic system in food webs that contains three species where two species that are involved in a predator/prey relationship are also competing for a shared resource or prey. We formulate two intraguild predation (IGP: resource, IG prey and IG predator) models: one has generalist predator while the other one has specialist predator. Both models have Holling-Type I functional response between resource-IG prey and resource-IG predator; Holling-Type III functional response between IG prey and IG predator. We provide sufficient conditions of the persistence and extinction of all possible scenarios for these two models, which give us a complete picture on their global dynamics. In addition, we show that both IGP models can have multiple interior equilibria under certain parameters range. These analytical results indicate that IGP model with generalist predator has “top down” regulation by comparing to IGP model with specialist predator. Our analysis and numerical simulations suggest that: (1) Both IGP models can have multiple attractors with complicated dynamical patterns; (2) Only IGP model with specialist predator can have both boundary attractor and interior attractor, i.e., whether the system has the extinction of one species or the coexistence of three species depending on initial conditions; (3) IGP model with generalist predator is prone to have coexistence of three species.     

Population dynamical consequences of reduced predator switching at low total prey densities

Several models of rapid switching by a predator in a two-prey environment are analyzed. The goal is to determine how the dynamics of the system and the potential indirect effects between prey are affected by the dependence of switching on total prey density. In exploring this question, the difference between the population-level consequences of switching in stable and cycling predator-prey systems is also examined. We concentrate on reduced switching at low densities, a feature that is likely because of the difficulty of distinguishing between two very low densities. The main findings are: (1) switching in unstable systems can produce positive indirect effects of one prey species on the other; and (2) reduced switching at low densities can greatly alter the dynamics of the system and the indirect effects between prey. Both of the possibilities are only evident in cycling systems. Reduced switching at low total prey densities leads to heavier predation on the slower-growing prey when both prey species are rare. As a consequence, there is a lag in the recovery of the slower-growing prey species after predator densities fall, and the dynamics of the two prey become desynchronized. The net result is increased indirect interactions between prey, and a greater likelihood of exclusion of the slower growing prey. The analysis of these models suggests a need for more empirical work to determine whether switching is reduced by very low total prey densities, and to study the long-term dynamics that occur in systems with switching predators.     

Predator identity and time of day interact to shape the risk–reward trade-off for herbivorous coral reef fishes

Non-consumptive effects (NCEs) of predators occur as prey alters their habitat use and foraging decisions to avoid predation. Although NCEs are recognized as being important across disparate ecosystems, the factors influencing their strength and importance remain poorly understood. Ecological context, such as time of day, predator identity, and prey condition, may modify how prey species perceive and respond to risk, thereby altering NCEs. To investigate how predator identity affects foraging of herbivorous coral reef fishes, we simulated predation risk using fiberglass models of two predator species (grouper Mycteroperca bonaci and barracuda Sphyraena barracuda) with different hunting modes. We quantified how predation risk alters herbivory rates across space (distance from predator) and time (dawn, mid-day, and dusk) to examine how prey reconciles the conflicting demands of avoiding predation vs. foraging. When we averaged the effect of both predators across space and time, they suppressed herbivory similarly. Yet, they altered feeding differently depending on time of day and distance from the model. Although feeding increased strongly with increasing distance from the predators particularly during dawn, we found that the barracuda model suppressed herbivory more strongly than the grouper model during mid-day. We suggest that prey hunger level and differences in predator hunting modes could influence these patterns. Understanding how context mediates NCEs provides insight into the emergent effects of predator–prey interactions on food webs. These insights have broad implications for understanding how anthropogenic alterations to predator abundances can affect the spatial and temporal dynamics of important ecosystem processes.     

You can’t run but you can hide: refuge use in frog tadpoles elicits density-dependent predation by dragonfly larvae

The potential role of prey refuges in stabilizing predator–prey interactions is of longstanding interest to ecologists, but mechanisms underlying a sigmoidal predator functional response remain to be fully elucidated. Authors have disagreed on whether the stabilizing effect of prey refuges is driven by prey- versus predator-centric mechanisms, but to date few studies have married predator and prey behavioural observations to distinguish between these possibilities. We used a dragonfly nymph–tadpole system to study the effect of a structural refuge (leaf litter) on the predator’s functional response, and paired this with behavioural observations of both predator and prey. Our study confirmed that hyperbolic (type II) functional responses were characteristic of foraging predators when structural cover was low or absent, whereas the functional response was sigmoidal (type III) when prey were provided with sufficient refuge. Prey activity and refuge use were density independent across cover treatments, thereby eliminating a prey-centric mechanism as being the genesis for density-dependent predation. In contrast, the predator’s pursuit length, capture success, and handling time were altered by the amount of structure implying that observed shifts in density-dependent predation likely were related to predator hunting efficiency. Our study advances current theory by revealing that despite fixed-proportion refuge use by prey, presence of a prey refuge can induce density-dependent predation through its effect on predator hunting strategy. Ultimately, responses of predator foraging decisions in response to changes in prey availability and search efficiency may be more important in producing density-dependent predation than the form of prey refuge use.     

Positive indirect effect of aquatic insects on terrestrial prey is not offset by increased predator density

1. Changes in one prey species' density can indirectly affect the abundance of another prey species if a shared predator eats both species. Sometimes, indirect effects occur when prey straddle habitats, including when riparian predator populations grow in response to emergent aquatic insects and increase predation on terrestrial prey. However, predators may largely switch to aquatic insects or become satiated, reducing predation on terrestrial prey. 2. To determine the net indirect effect of aquatic insects on terrestrial arthropods via generalist spider predators, a field experiment was conducted mimicking midge influx and a wolf spider numerical response inside enclosures near an Icelandic lake. Lab mesocosms were also used to assess per capita rates of spider predation u nder differing levels of midge abundance. 3. Midges always decreased sentinel prey predation, but this effect increased with predator density. When midges were absent, predation increased 30% at a high spider density, but predation was equal between spider treatments when midges were present. In situ arthropods showed no effect of midge or spider treatments, although non‐significant abundance patterns were observed congruent with sentinel prey results. 4. In lab mesocosms, prey survivorship increased ≥50% where midges were present and rapidly saturated; the addition of 5, 20, 50, and 100 midges equivalently reduced spider predation, supporting predator distraction rather than satiation as the root cause. 5. The present results demonstrate a strong positive indirect effect of midges and broadly support the concept that predator responses to alternative prey are a major influence on the magnitude and direction of predator‐mediated indirect effects.     

Coexistence of species in a defensive switching model

We consider a simple mathematical model of two-predators and one-prey system which has the defensive switching property of predation-avoidance. We assume that the prey remains vigilant against relatively abundant predator species and guards against it by switching to another (relatively rare) predator species. We analyze how the intensity of defensive switching affects the stability of the model system. It is seen that the system generally has a stable three species coexisting equilibrium state. In the special case that the intensity of defensive switching equals one and the two predators have the same mortality rates, it is shown that the system asymptotically settles to a Volterra's oscillation in three-dimensional space. It is observed that a sufficiently small or sufficiently large value of intensity of defensive switching can make the system unstable. Finally, it is shown that the handling time may have a stabilizing effect on predator-prey systems with defensive switching.     

Theoretical dynamics of competitors under predation

Summary Continuous population models of two prey species and a predator were explored by isocline analysis. When predator satiation and substitution between prey (with or without switching) are introduced in the models, many qualitatively different kinds of dynamic behaviour become possible. These depend in a complex but predictable way on competitive relations between prey and on predator feeding behaviour and efficiency. Under constant predation many cases of threshold responses between two or more alternate stable states are possibly; the numerical response of the predator population reduces some of the possibilities.Apparently contradictory community phenomena previously proposed, e.g. prey coexistence versus exclusion by addition of predator, exclusion versus stabilization by addition of alternate prey, are all possible as special cases. A prey which is relatively tolerant to predation can act as a keystone species, on which the existence of other prey species in the community depends, in either a positive or a negative sense. In certain conditions predator-induced obligatory mutualism between two prey species is theoretically possible.To Michael Evenari, pioneer, teacher and friend     

Mechanisms of coexistence in diverse herbivore–carnivore assemblages: demographic,temporal and spatial heterogeneities affecting prey vulnerability

Simple models coupling the dynamics of single predators to single prey populations tend to generate oscillatory dynamics of both predator and prey, or extirpation of the prey followed by that of the predator. In reality, such oscillatory dynamics may be counteracted by prey refugia or by opportunities for prey switching by the predator in multi‐prey assemblages. How these mechanisms operate depends on relative prey vulnerability, a factor ignored in simple interactive models. I outline how compositional, temporal, demographic and spatial heterogeneities help explain the contrasting effects of top predators on large herbivore abundance and population dynamics in species‐rich African savanna ecosystems compared with less species‐diverse northern temperate or subarctic ecosystems. Demographically, mortality inflicted by predation depends on the relative size and life history stage of the prey. Because all animals eventually die and are consumed by various carnivores, the additive component of the mortality inflicted is somewhat less than the predation rate. Prey vulnerability varies annually and seasonally, and between day and night. Spatial variation in the risk of predation depends on vegetation cover as well as on the availability of food resources. During times of food shortage, herbivores become prompted to occupy more risky habitats retaining more food. Predator concentrations dependent on the abundance of primary prey species may restrict the occurrence of other potential prey species less resistant to predation. The presence of multiple herbivore species of similar size in African savannas allows the top predator, the lion, to shift its prey selection flexibly dependent on changing prey vulnerability. Hence top–down and bottom–up influences on herbivore populations are intrinsically entangled. Models coupling the population dynamics of predators and prey need to accommodate the changing influences of prey demography, temporal variation in environmental conditions, and spatial variation in the relative vulnerability of alternative prey species to predation. Synthesis While re‐established predators have had major impacts on prey populations in northern temperate regions, multiple large herbivore species typically coexist along with diverse carnivores in African savanna ecosystems. In order to explain these contrasting outcomes, certain functional heterogeneities must be recognised, including relative vulnerability of alternative prey, temporal variation in the risk of predation, demographic differences in susceptibility to predation, and spatial contrasts in exposure to predation. Food shortfalls prompt herbivores to exploit more risky habitats, meaning that top–down and bottom–up influences on prey populations are intrinsically entangled. Models coupling the interactive dynamics of predator and prey populations need to incorporate these varying influences on relative prey vulnerability.     

Does differential predation permit invasive and native mosquito larvae to coexist in Florida?

Abstract.  1. The hypothesis that selective predation on larvae of the invasive Aedes albopictus (Skuse) could account for its stable coexistence with the native mosquito species and inferior competitor Ochlerotatus triseriatus (Say) in Florida treeholes and container systems was tested experimentally.
2. Functional responses of the two dipteran predators Toxorhynchites rutilus (Coquillett) and Corethrella appendiculata (Grabham) were evaluated separately for A. albopictus and O. triseriatus prey. Both predators exhibited type II functional responses and consistently consumed more of the invasive species. Handling time of T. rutilus feeding upon O. triseriatus was significantly longer than when preying upon the invasive species.
3. When either predator species was offered varying ratios of the two prey species, A. albopictus was consumed preferentially. The absence of a prey ratio effect on preference indicated that switching probably does not occur.
4. The higher maximum feeding rate upon, and preference for, A. albopictus suggests that differential predation may foster coexistence of the invasive and native mosquito prey species in Florida.     

A predator–prey refuge system: Evolutionary stability in ecological systems

A refuge model is developed for a single predator species and either one or two prey species where no predators are present in the prey refuge. An individual’s fitness depends on its strategy choice or ecotype (predators decide which prey species to pursue and prey decide what proportion of their time to spend in the refuge) as well as on the population sizes of all three species. It is shown that, when there is a single prey species with a refuge or two prey species with no refuge compete only indirectly (i.e. there is only apparent competition between prey species), that stable resident systems where all individuals in each species have the same ecotype cannot be destabilized by the introduction of mutant ecotypes that are initially selectively neutral. In game-theoretic terms, this means that stable monomorphic resident systems, with ecotypes given by a Nash equilibrium, are both ecologically and evolutionarily stable. However, we show that this is no longer the case when the two indirectly-competing prey species have a refuge. This illustrates theoretically that two ecological factors, that are separately stabilizing (apparent competition and refuge use), may have a combined destabilizing effect from the evolutionary perspective. These results generalize the concept of an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) to models in evolutionary ecology. Several biological examples of predator–prey systems are discussed from this perspective.