Sequential Decision Rules for Managing Nematodes with Crop Rotations

A dynamic model of nematode populations under a crop rotation that includes both host and nonhost crops is developed and used to conceptualize the problem of economic control. The steady state of the dynamic system is used to devise an approximately optimal decision policy, which is then applied to cyst nematode (Heterodera schachtii) control in a rotation of sugarbeet with nonhost crops. Long-run economic returns from this approximately optimal decision rule are compared with results from solution of the exact dynamic optimization model. The simple decision rule based on the steady state provides long-run average returns that are similar to the fully optimal solution. For sugarbeet and H. schachtii, the simplified rule can be calculated by maximizing a relatively simple algebraic expression with respect to the number of years in the sequence of nonhost crops. Maximization is easy because only integers are of interest and the number of years in nonhost crops is typically small. Solution of this problem indirectly yields an approximation to the optimal dynamic economic threshold density of nematodes in the soil. The decision rule requires knowledge of annual nematode population change under host and nonhost crops, and the relationship between crop yield and nematode population density.     

Sequential sampling plans for western flower thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) on greenhouse cucumbers

The development of cost-effective and reliable sampling programs for the management of western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), on greenhouse cucumbers is important for getting growers to adopt economic injury levels and economic thresholds. The objectives of this study were to develop two sequential sampling plans. A fixed-precision sequential sampling plan was designed for estimating F. occidentalis adult density at a fixed-precision level on cucumber flowers. Also, a sequential sampling plan for classifying thrips population levels as below or above economic thresholds was developed to assist in decision making for the timing of pesticide applications. Both sequential sampling plans were validated using a resampling simulation technique on nine independent data sets ranging in density from 1.25 to 12.95 adults per flower. With the fixed-precision sampling plan, average means obtained in 100 repeated simulation runs were within the 95% CI of the estimated mean for all data sets. Appropriate levels of precision for the different population densities were recommended based on the simulation results. With sequential sampling for classifying the population levels of thrips in terms of an economic threshold, it has the advantage of requiring smaller sample sizes to determine the population status when the population densities differ greatly from the critical density (i.e., economic threshold). However, this plan needs a great number of samples when population density is close to the critical density. In this case, use of a combination of both sampling plans is recommended.     

Stability and Characteristics of Spatial Description Parameters for Nematode Populations

The parameters of Taylor''s Power Law (s² = am^b) relating variance (s²) to mean population level (m) were acceptably stable in different fields with similar cropping systems. Values of both a and b parameters varied with nematode species. The value of a was a function of sample size (number of cores) and was characterized for each species. The value of b was stable across sample size and reflective of the life history strategy of the species. The relationship between the economic threshold and sampling intensity required to allow management decisions, with specified levels of risk, indicated the need for improved sampling technology.     

Nematode Economic Thresholds: Derivation,Requirements, and Theoretical Considerations

Determinatitm and use of economic thresholds is considered essential in nematode pest management programs. The economic efficiency of control measures is lnaximized when the difference hetween the crop valne and the cost of pest control is greatest. Since the cost of reducing the nematnde pnpnlation varies with the magnitutle of the reduction attempted, an economic (optimizing) threshold can be determined graphically or mathematically if the nature of the relationships between degree of control and cost, and nematode densities and crop value are known. Economic thresholds then vary according to the nematode control practices used, environmental influences on the nematode damage fnnction, and expected crop yields and values. A prerequisite of the approach is reliability of nematode population assessment techniques.     

The Potential for Mapping Nematode Distributions for Site-specific Management

The success of site-specific nematode management depends on a grower or advisor being able to afford to make a map of an infestation that is accurate enough for management decisions. The spatial dependence of nematode infestations and correlation of soil attributes with nematode density were assessed to investigate the scale of sampling required to obtain correlated observations of density and the use of soils data to reduce the cost of sampling. Nematodes and soil were sampled on a 76.2 × 76.2-m grid in two irrigated corn (Zea mays) fields for 2 years. Nematodes of each of three species were found in 36% to 77% of the cores from a field. Spatial dependence was detected for 10 of 16 distributions, and 22% to 67% of the variation in density within a field could be attributed to spatial correlation. Density was correlated to distances of 115 to 649 m in the directions of 0, 45, 90, and 135° from the crop row, and distances varied with direction. Correlations between nematode density and soil attributes were inconsistent between species and fields. These results indicate a potential for mapping nematode infestations for site-specific management, but provide no evidence for reducing the cost of sampling by substituting soils data for nematode counts when making a map.     

Spoor counts as indices of large carnivore populations: the relationship between spoor frequency, sampling effort and true density

1. Studies of large carnivore populations and, particularly, reliable estimates of population density are necessary for effective conservation management. However, these animals are difficult to study, and direct methods of assessing population size and density are often expensive and time-consuming.
2. Indirect sampling, by counting spoor, could provide repeatable and inexpensive measures of some population parameters. The relationship between true population density and indirect sampling results has seldom been described in large carnivore studies.
3. In northern Namibia the population densities of leopards, lions and wild dogs were measured through recognition of individuals and groups. Spoor counts were then conducted independently, to assess the relationship between true density and the distribution of spoor.
4. Sampling effort, both in terms of the number of roads and total road distance in a sample zone, and the intensity of sampling, had a marked effect on the accuracy and precision of spoor frequency calculations.
5. In a homogeneous habitat, leopard spoor were evenly spread along different roads and spoor frequency was independent of road length. Taking into account very low sample sizes, the spoor density of leopards, lions and wild dogs showed a strong linear correlation with true density. The slope of the regression for leopards was different to that of lions and wild dogs.     

Spatial pattern and sequential sampling of squash bug (Heteroptera: Coreidae) adults in watermelon

Spatial distribution patterns of adult squash bugs were determined in watermelon, Citrullus lanatus (Thunberg) Matsumura and Nakai, during 2001 and 2002. Results of analysis using Taylor's power law regression model indicated that squash bugs were aggregated in watermelon. Taylor's power law provided a good fit with r2 = 0.94. A fixed precision sequential sampling plan was developed for estimating adult squash bug density at fixed precision levels in watermelon. The plan was tested using a resampling simulation method on nine and 13 independent data sets ranging in density from 0.15 to 2.52 adult squash bugs per plant. Average estimated means obtained in 100 repeated simulation runs were within the 95% CI of the true means for all the data. Average estimated levels of precision were similar to the desired level of precision, particularly when the sampling plan was tested on data having an average mean density of 1.19 adult squash bugs per plant. Also, a sequential sampling for classifying adult squash bug density as below or above economic threshold was developed to assist in the decision-making process. The classification sampling plan is advantageous in that it requires smaller sample sizes to estimate the population status when the population density differs greatly from the action threshold. However, the plan may require excessively large sample sizes when the density is close to the threshold. Therefore, an integrated sequential sampling plan was developed using a combination of a fixed precision and classification sequential sampling plans. The integration of sampling plans can help reduce sampling requirements.     

Relationship Between Crop Losses and Initial Population Densities of Meloidogyne arenaria in Winter-Grown Oriental Melon in Korea

To determine the economic threshold level, oriental melon (Cucumis melo L. cv. Geumssaragi-euncheon) grafted on Shintozoa (Cucurbita maxima × Cu. moschata) was planted in plots (2 × 3 m) under a plastic film in February with a range of initial population densities (Pi) of Meloidogyne arenaria. The relationships of early, late, and total yield to Pi measured in September and January were adequately described by both linear regression and the Seinhorst damage model. Initial nematode densities in September in excess of 14 second-stage juveniles (J2)/100 cm³ soil caused losses in total yields that exceeded the economic threshold and indicate the need for fosthiazate nematicide treatment at current costs. Differences in yield-loss relationships to Pi between early- and late-season harvests enhance the resolution of the management decision and suggest approaches for optimizing returns. Determination of population levels for advisory purposes can be based on assay samples taken several months before planting, which allows time for implementation of management procedures. We introduce (i) an amendment of the economic threshold definition to reflect efficacy of the nematode management procedure under consideration, and (ii) the concept of profit limit as the nematode population at which net returns from the system will become negative.     

Sampling methods, dispersion patterns, and fixed precision sequential sampling plans for western flower thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) and cotton fleahoppers (Hemiptera: Miridae) in cotton

A 2-yr field study was conducted to examine the effectiveness of two sampling methods (visual and plant washing techniques) for western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), and five sampling methods (visual, beat bucket, drop cloth, sweep net, and vacuum) for cotton fleahopper, Pseudatomoscelis seriatus (Reuter), in Texas cotton, Gossypium hirsutum (L.), and to develop sequential sampling plans for each pest. The plant washing technique gave similar results to the visual method in detecting adult thrips, but the washing technique detected significantly higher number of thrips larvae compared with the visual sampling. Visual sampling detected the highest number of fleahoppers followed by beat bucket, drop cloth, vacuum, and sweep net sampling, with no significant difference in catch efficiency between vacuum and sweep net methods. However, based on fixed precision cost reliability, the sweep net sampling was the most cost-effective method followed by vacuum, beat bucket, drop cloth, and visual sampling. Taylor's Power Law analysis revealed that the field dispersion patterns of both thrips and fleahoppers were aggregated throughout the crop growing season. For thrips management decision based on visual sampling (0.25 precision), 15 plants were estimated to be the minimum sample size when the estimated population density was one thrips per plant, whereas the minimum sample size was nine plants when thrips density approached 10 thrips per plant. The minimum visual sample size for cotton fleahoppers was 16 plants when the density was one fleahopper per plant, but the sample size decreased rapidly with an increase in fleahopper density, requiring only four plants to be sampled when the density was 10 fleahoppers per plant. Sequential sampling plans were developed and validated with independent data for both thrips and cotton fleahoppers.     

Nematode Damage Functions: The Problems of Experimental and Sampling Error

The development and use of pest damage functions involves measurement and experimental errors associated with cultural, environmental, and distributional factors. Damage predictions are more valuable if considered with associated probability. Collapsing population densities into a geometric series of population classes allows a pseudo-replication removal of experimental and sampling error in damage function development. Recognition of the nature of sampling error for aggregated populations allows assessment of probability associated with the population estimate. The product of the probabilities incorporated in the damage function and in the population estimate provides a basis for risk analysis of the yield loss prediction and the ensuing management decision.     

Accuracy, precision, and economic efficiency for three methods of thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) population density assessment

Western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae), is a major horticultural pest and an important vector of plant viruses in many parts of the world. Methods for assessing thrips population density for pest management decision support are often inaccurate or imprecise due to thrips' positive thigmotaxis, small size, and naturally aggregated populations. Two established methods, flower tapping and an alcohol wash, were compared with a novel method, plant desiccation coupled with passive trapping, using accuracy, precision and economic efficiency as comparative variables. Observed accuracy was statistically similar and low (37.8-53.6%) for all three methods. Flower tapping was the least expensive method, in terms of person-hours, whereas the alcohol wash method was the most expensive. Precision, expressed by relative variation, depended on location within the greenhouse, location on greenhouse benches, and the sampling week, but it was generally highest for the flower tapping and desiccation methods. Economic efficiency, expressed by relative net precision, was highest for the flower tapping method and lowest for the alcohol wash method. Advantages and disadvantages are discussed for all three methods used. If relative density assessment methods such as these can all be assumed to accurately estimate a constant proportion of absolute density, then high precision becomes the methodological goal in terms of measuring insect population density, decision making for pest management, and pesticide efficacy assessments.     

Untersuchungen über den Befall des Rübenzystennematoden (Heterodera schachtii Schmidt) durch pilzliche Eiparasiten in zwei Zuckerrüben-Getreide-Fruchtfolgen

Abstract Investigations on fungal egg parasites of the sugar beet nematode ( Heterodera schachtii Schmidt) in two sugar beet-cereal-rotations
In two field trials with rotations of sugar beet-cereals-green manure the population dynamics of Heterodera schachtii was investigated as well as the frequency of its fungal egg parasites. During the rotation, highest rates of fungal parasitism (20–48%) were observed after years with sugar beet, independently of the nematode population density. In the interim parasitism decreased to about 10%. A highly significant correlation was found between nematode population density and the amount of parasitized eggs and larvae. The effect of resistant catch crops (oil radish'Pegletta and white mustard'Maxi') on fungal egg parasites was not different from the effect of Phacelia or fallow. There are indications, however, that a high nematode multiplication on a susceptible catch crop promotes antagonistic fungi and, in consequence, a nematode population decrease may occur in the following sugar beet crop.     

Effect of Mowing Cotton Stalks and Preventing Plant Re-Growth on Post-Harvest Reproduction of Meloidogyne incognita

The southern root-knot nematode (Meloidogyne incognita) is a major parasite of cotton in the U.S., and management tactics for this nematode attempt to minimize population levels. We compared three post-harvest practices for their ability to reduce nematode population levels in the field, thereby reducing initial nematode population for the next year's crop. The three practices tested were: 1) chemical defoliation before harvest plus cutting cotton stalks after harvest, 2) chemical defoliation plus applying a herbicide to kill plants prior to cutting the stalks, and 3) chemical defoliation without cutting stalks. Experiments were conducted in both the greenhouse and in the field. The greenhouse experiments demonstrated that M. incognita reproduction (measured as egg counts and root gall rating indices) was significantly greater when stalks were not cut. Cutting stalks plus applying herbicide to kill cotton roots did not significantly reduce nematode reproduction compared to cutting stalks alone. In field experiments, cutting stalks reduced egg populations and root galling compared to defoliation without stalk cutting. In a greenhouse bioassay which used soil from the field plots, plants grown in soil from the defoliation only treatment had greater root gall ratings and egg counts than in the stalk cutting plus herbicide treatment. Therefore, we conclude that cutting cotton stalks immediately after harvest effectively reduces M. incognita reproduction, and may lead to a lower initial population density of this nematode in the following year.     

Pellet group count methods to estimate red deer densities: Precision,potential accuracy and efficiency

Pellet group count methods are key tools for wildlife conservation and management. Therefore, it is essential to clarify the performance and suitability of the different pellet group count methods at distinct realities. This issue has been discussed by other researchers but with inconsistent conclusions, leaving open the necessity of additional studies. Aiming to fill this need, we used a combination of field data and simulation models to evaluate the density estimates, precision and potential accuracy of the results obtained through each pellet group count method, and also the sampling effort and efficiency associated with them. The methods evaluated were standing crop plot counts (FSCP), clearance plot counts (FAR), standing crop strip transect counts (ST) and standing crop line transect counts (LT). Deer density estimates by the four methods were statistically similar at all effort levels simulated. The analyses of CV trends reveal a better precision supplied by FSCP than by FAR for the same effort, while ST and LT yielded comparable values in analogous situations. The time required to make a survey is a key factor in the choice of a field technique. LT with distance sampling was the most efficient method to count pellet groups, while FAR seems to be the less proficient method. Attending to the limitations usually inherent to field surveys, like time, technicians and budget, LT appeared more efficient than the other methods, providing great precision and accuracy in less time. Nevertheless, at high densities and pronounced habitat heterogeneity, FAR became more efficient than FSC, do not requiring the decay rates, allowing accurate estimates in a few months when applied with the proper effort and environmental conditions. This study highlights the importance of carrying out pilot studies and simulation models to evaluate the sampling design prior to its implementation in the field.     

Factors Affecting the Biology and Pathogenicity of Heterodera schachtii on Sugarbeet

A direct relationship exists between soil temperature and Heterodera schachtii development. The average developmental period of two nematode populations from Lewiston, Utah, and Rupert, Idaho, from J2 to J3, J4, adult, and the next generation J2 at soil temperatures of 18-28 C were 100, 140,225, and 399 degree-days (base 8 C), respectively. There was a positive relationship (P < 0.05) between nematode Pi, nematode generations, and sugarbeet yields. The greatest sugarbeet growth inhibition (87%) occurred when sugarbeets were exposed to a Pi of 12 eggs/cm³ soil for five generations (1,995 degree-days), compared with a 47% inhibition when plants were exposed to the same Pi for two generations. There was a negative correlation (P < 0.05) between the Pi, Pf, and sugarbeet yield for each population threshold. The smaller the Pi, the greater the sugarbeet yields and the greater the Pf. Root yields were 80 and 29 t /ha and Pf were 8.4 and 3.6 eggs/cm³ soil when sugarbeet seeds were planted at Pi of 0.4 and 7.9 eggs/cm³. respectively, at a soil temperature of 8 C. The number of years rotation with a nonhost crop required to reduce the nematode population density below a damage threshold level of 2 eggs/cm³ depends on the Pi. A Pi of 33.8 eggs/cm³ soil required a 5-year crop rotation, whereas a Pi of 8.4 eggs/cm³ soil required a 2-year crop rotation.     

Spatial distribution of Heterodera trifolii in Chinese cabbage fields

Although Heterodera trifolii is commonly known as the clover cyst nematode, recently the nematode has been identified as a serious menace for Chinese cabbage growers in highland areas in Korea. Soil samples were collected from two Chinese cabbage fields highly infested with H. trifolii in highland areas of Korea, Jungsun and Samcheok, in 2014 and 2015, respectively. A total of 777 (2?×?2?m sampling area) and 414 (5?×?5?m area) soil samples were collected from Jungsun and Samcheok, respectively. The total cysts, cysts with eggs, number of eggs, and empty cysts were calculated for each sample. Distribution patterns for these variables were characterized using spatial analysis by distance indices (SADIE) and variogram model analysis. The aggregation index for cysts with eggs was higher in Jungsun (89.32) than Samcheok (3.63), which indicated that the cyst population density was higher. However, the spatial association of total cysts versus cysts with eggs was higher in Samcheok. The Gaussian model showed reasonable independent range of the nematode in Jungsun and Samcheok to be approximately 53.66?m and 48.54?m, respectively. The model suggested that each nematode sample should be taken at least 50?m apart in the given areas. Inclusion of this distribution pattern may significantly minimize the number of samples in future sampling methods, which could save time and labor, and initiate management practices by elucidating spatial variability factors that influence crop yield.     

The Future of Nematology: Integration of New and Improved Management Strategies

The potential for managing plant-parasitic nenlatodes by combining two or more control strategies in an integrated program is examined. Advantages of this approach include the use of partially effective strategies and protection of highly effective ones vulnerable from nematode adaptation or environmental risk. Strategies can be combined sequentially from season to season or applied simultaneously. Programs that have several strategies available but that are limited in the true integration of control components are used as examples of current management procedures and the potential for their improvement. These include potato cyst nematodes in northern Europe, soybean cyst nematode in North Carolina, and root-knot nematodes on vegetable and field crops in California. A simplified model of the impact of component strategies on the nematode damage function indicates the potential for combining control measures with different efficacies to give acceptable nematode population reduction and crop protection. The likelihood for additive, synergistic, or antagonistic effects from combining strategies is considered with respect to the biological target and component compatibility.     

Evaluation of sequential presence-absence sampling plans for the diamondback moth (Plutellidae: Lepidoptera) in cruciferous crops in Australia

Two sets of sequential presence-absence sampling plans for decision-making in the management of diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), were developed and evaluated. One set of sampling plans targeted the classification of proportions of infested plants, and the other set of sampling plans targeted the classification of larval density. The action thresholds investigated were 0.15, 0.25, 0.35, and 0.45 proportion of plants infested with larvae, and 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, and 0.8 larvae per plant. They are representative of the action thresholds currently practiced by Australian crucifer growers. For each sampling plan, the population range within which a minimal correct decision rate of 95% can be expected at a maximal average sample size of 50 plants (OC95ASN50) was specified. The closeness of an OC95ASN50 range to the target action threshold is a measure of the expected performance of the sampling plan. A closer distance reflects better performance. The OC95ASN50 ranges of the proportion-classification sampling plans were within 33-53% of the target action thresholds. The width of these OC95ASN50 ranges represents 73-87% of the entire population range (0-1). For the classification of larval density, an empirical proportion-density model was first established using data from different states and different cruciferous crops. The OC95ASN50 ranges of the density-classification sampling plans were within 57-75% of the target action threshold. Simulated sampling of 20 independent data sets showed that for most data sets the correct classification rate was at least 98% and the matching average sample size was <50 plants.     

Damage Function and Economic Threshold for Belonolaimus longicaudatus on Potato

Belonolaimus longicaudatus has long been recognized as a pathogen of potato (Solanum tuberosum). However, a damage function relating expected yield of potato to population densities of B. longicaudatus at planting has not been derived, and the economic threshold for nematicide application is unknown. The objectives of this study were to derive the damage function of B. longicaudatus on potato and to calculate the economic threshold population density. The damage function data for B. longicaudatus on potato were obtained from an ongoing field study to evaluate cropping systems and nematode management practices. Soil samples were collected from experimental field plots, and nematodes were extracted from a 130-cm³ subsample with a centrifugal-flotation method. A damage function was derived by linear regression of potato yield on nematode population density at planting. Based on this derived damage function and published potato prices, the economic threshold for nematicide application was calculated at 2 to 3 B. longicaudatus/130 cm³ of soil, which was near the detection threshold based on methodology used in this study.