Ten Year Trends in Community HIV Viral Load in Barbados: Implications for Treatment as Prevention

Background

Treatment as prevention is a paradigm in HIV medicine which describes the public health benefit of antiretroviral therapy (ART). It is based on research showing substantial reductions in the risk of HIV transmission in persons with optimally suppressed HIV-1 Viral Loads (VL). The present study describes ten year VL trends at the national HIV treatment unit and estimates VL suppression at a population level in Barbados, a Caribbean island with a population of 277,000, an estimated adult HIV prevalence of 1.2%, and served by a single treatment unit.

Methods

The national HIV treatment centre of the Barbados Ministry of Health has a client VL database extending back to inception of the clinic in 2002 (n = 1,462 clients, n = 17,067 VL measurements). Optimal VL suppression was defined at a threshold value of ≤200 viral copies/mL.

Results

Analysis of VL trends showed a statistically significant improvement in VL suppression between 2002 to 2011, from 33.6% of clients achieving the 200 copies/mL threshold in 2002 to 70.3% in 2011 (P<0.001). Taking into account the proportion of clients alive and in care and on ART, the known diagnosed HIV population in Barbados, and estimates of unknown HIV infections, this translates into an estimated 26.2% VL suppression at a population level at the end of 2010.

Conclusions

We have demonstrated a significant trend towards optimal VL suppression in clients utilizing the services of the national HIV treatment program in Barbados over a 10-year period. Estimates of VL suppression at a population level are similar to reports in developed countries that applied similar methodologies and this could suggest a public health benefit of ART in minimizing the risk of sexual transmission of HIV. Continued efforts are warranted to extend HIV testing to hidden populations in Barbados and linking infected persons to care earlier in their disease.     

Decreases in Community Viral Load Are Accompanied by Reductions in New HIV Infections in San Francisco

Background

At the individual level, higher HIV viral load predicts sexual transmission risk. We evaluated San Francisco''s community viral load (CVL) as a population level marker of HIV transmission risk. We hypothesized that the decrease in CVL in San Francisco from 2004–2008, corresponding with increased rates of HIV testing, antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage and effectiveness, and population-level virologic suppression, would be associated with a reduction in new HIV infections.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used San Francisco''s HIV/AIDS surveillance system to examine the trends in CVL. Mean CVL was calculated as the mean of the most recent viral load of all reported HIV-positive individuals in a particular community. Total CVL was defined as the sum of the most recent viral loads of all HIV-positive individuals in a particular community. We used Poisson models with robust standard errors to assess the relationships between the mean and total CVL and the primary outcome: annual numbers of newly diagnosed HIV cases. Both mean and total CVL decreased from 2004–2008 and were accompanied by decreases in new HIV diagnoses from 798 (2004) to 434 (2008). The mean (p = 0.003) and total CVL (p = 0.002) were significantly associated with new HIV cases from 2004–2008.

Conclusions/Significance

Reductions in CVL are associated with decreased HIV infections. Results suggest that wide-scale ART could reduce HIV transmission at the population level. Because CVL is temporally upstream of new HIV infections, jurisdictions should consider adding CVL to routine HIV surveillance to track the epidemic, allocate resources, and to evaluate the effectiveness of HIV prevention and treatment efforts.     

Viral Load Levels Measured at Set-Point Have Risen Over the Last Decade of the HIV Epidemic in the Netherlands

Background

HIV-1 RNA plasma concentration at viral set-point is associated not only with disease outcome but also with the transmission dynamics of HIV-1. We investigated whether plasma HIV-1 RNA concentration and CD4 cell count at viral set-point have changed over time in the HIV epidemic in the Netherlands.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We selected 906 therapy-naïve patients with at least one plasma HIV-1 RNA concentration measured 9 to 27 months after estimated seroconversion. Changes in HIV-1 RNA and CD4 cell count at viral set-point over time were analysed using linear regression models. The ATHENA national observational cohort contributed all patients who seroconverted in or after 1996; the Amsterdam Cohort Studies (ACS) contributed seroconverters before 1996. The mean of the first HIV-1 RNA concentration measured 9–27 months after seroconversion was 4.30 log₁₀ copies/ml (95% CI 4.17–4.42) for seroconverters from 1984 through 1995 (n = 163); 4.27 (4.16–4.37) for seroconverters 1996–2002 (n = 232), and 4.59 (4.52–4.66) for seroconverters 2003–2007 (n = 511). Compared to patients seroconverting between 2003–2007, the adjusted mean HIV-1 RNA concentration at set-point was 0.28 log₁₀ copies/ml (95% CI 0.16–0.40; p<0.0001) and 0.26 (0.11–0.41; p = 0.0006) lower for those seroconverting between 1996–2002 and 1984–1995, respectively. Results were robust regardless of type of HIV-1 RNA assay, HIV-1 subtype, and interval between measurement and seroconversion. CD4 cell count at viral set-point declined over calendar time at approximately 5 cells/mm³/year.

Conclusion

The HIV-1 RNA plasma concentration at viral set-point has increased over the last decade of the HIV epidemic in the Netherlands. This is accompanied by a decreasing CD4 cell count over the period 1984–2007 and may have implications for both the course of the HIV infection and the epidemic.     

HIV Viral Load Trends in Six Eastern Caribbean Countries Utilizing a Regional Laboratory Referral Service: Implications for Treatment as Prevention

Objective

Since 2009, seven countries in the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts & Nevis, Saint Lucia, and St. Vincent & the Grenadines, have been utilizing a laboratory referral service for HIV-1 viral load (VL) offered by The Ladymeade Reference Unit (LRU) Laboratory, Barbados. The objective of this study was to evaluate 5 year VL trends in the six larger OECS countries participating in this regional referral service.

Methods

Blood samples were collected in source countries and transported to Barbados as frozen plasma according to a standardized protocol. Plasma specimens were amplified by RT PCR on a Roche TaqMan 48 analyser (Roche Diagnostics, Panama City, Panama). VL was considered optimally suppressed below a threshold level of < 200 HIV-1 copies/mL of blood. The same threshold was used as a binary indicator in an analysis of the secular change in VL suppression. Montserrat was excluded due to insufficient number of samples.

Results

A steady rise in VL referrals from OECS countries was recorded, rising from 312 samples in 2009 to 1,060 samples in 2013. A total of 3,543 samples were tested, with a sample rejection rate (9.2%) mostly due to breaks in the cold chain. Aggregate VL data showed the odds of VL suppression in the Eastern Caribbean improved by 66% for each additional year after 2009 (Odds Ratio 1.66 [95% CI 1.46 to 1.88]; p<0.001).

Conclusion

We demonstrate the feasibility of establishing a regional laboratory referral service for HIV VL monitoring in the Eastern Caribbean. Aggregate VL trends showed a significant year-on-year improvement in VL suppression, implying public health benefits through treatment as prevention in the OECS. VL provides a powerful monitoring & evaluation tool for strengthening HIV programs at country level among the small island states participating in this regional referral network.     

Tracking the Sleep Onset Process: An Empirical Model of Behavioral and Physiological Dynamics

The sleep onset process (SOP) is a dynamic process correlated with a multitude of behavioral and physiological markers. A principled analysis of the SOP can serve as a foundation for answering questions of fundamental importance in basic neuroscience and sleep medicine. Unfortunately, current methods for analyzing the SOP fail to account for the overwhelming evidence that the wake/sleep transition is governed by continuous, dynamic physiological processes. Instead, current practices coarsely discretize sleep both in terms of state, where it is viewed as a binary (wake or sleep) process, and in time, where it is viewed as a single time point derived from subjectively scored stages in 30-second epochs, effectively eliminating SOP dynamics from the analysis. These methods also fail to integrate information from both behavioral and physiological data. It is thus imperative to resolve the mismatch between the physiological evidence and analysis methodologies. In this paper, we develop a statistically and physiologically principled dynamic framework and empirical SOP model, combining simultaneously-recorded physiological measurements with behavioral data from a novel breathing task requiring no arousing external sensory stimuli. We fit the model using data from healthy subjects, and estimate the instantaneous probability that a subject is awake during the SOP. The model successfully tracked physiological and behavioral dynamics for individual nights, and significantly outperformed the instantaneous transition models implicit in clinical definitions of sleep onset. Our framework also provides a principled means for cross-subject data alignment as a function of wake probability, allowing us to characterize and compare SOP dynamics across different populations. This analysis enabled us to quantitatively compare the EEG of subjects showing reduced alpha power with the remaining subjects at identical response probabilities. Thus, by incorporating both physiological and behavioral dynamics into our model framework, the dynamics of our analyses can finally match those observed during the SOP.     

Fitting the HIV Epidemic in Zambia: A Two-Sex Micro-Simulation Model

Background

In describing and understanding how the HIV epidemic spreads in African countries, previous studies have not taken into account the detailed periods at risk. This study is based on a micro-simulation model (individual-based) of the spread of the HIV epidemic in the population of Zambia, where women tend to marry early and where divorces are not frequent. The main target of the model was to fit the HIV seroprevalence profiles by age and sex observed at the Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2001.

Methods and Findings

A two-sex micro-simulation model of HIV transmission was developed. Particular attention was paid to precise age-specific estimates of exposure to risk through the modelling of the formation and dissolution of relationships: marriage (stable union), casual partnership, and commercial sex. HIV transmission was exclusively heterosexual for adults or vertical (mother-to-child) for children. Three stages of HIV infection were taken into account. All parameters were derived from empirical population-based data. Results show that basic parameters could not explain the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in Zambia. In order to fit the age and sex patterns, several assumptions were made: differential susceptibility of young women to HIV infection, differential susceptibility or larger number of encounters for male clients of commercial sex workers, and higher transmission rate. The model allowed to quantify the role of each type of relationship in HIV transmission, the proportion of infections occurring at each stage of disease progression, and the net reproduction rate of the epidemic (R ₀ = 1.95).

Conclusions

The simulation model reproduced the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in Zambia, and fitted the age and sex pattern of HIV seroprevalence in 2001. The same model could be used to measure the effect of changing behaviour in the future.     

Behavioral and Other Characteristics Associated with HIV Viral Load in an Outpatient Clinic

Persons living with HIV (PLWH) who are engaged in care, yet not virally suppressed, represent a risk for transmission and opportunity for risk reduction interventions. This study describes characteristics of an outpatient clinic cohort of PLWH by laboratory confirmed viral suppression status and examines associations with demographics and sexual and drug use behaviors gathered through questionnaire. From a sample of 500 clinic patients, 438 were prescribed antiretroviral treatment (ART) and 62 were not. Among the 438 on ART, 72 (16.4%) were not virally suppressed at the most recent lab draw. Compared to individuals with a suppressed viral load, those that were unsuppressed were more likely to: be black (79.2% vs. 64.2%; p = 0.014); earn below $25,000/year (88.9% vs. 65.0%; p < 0.001); be of a younger age (47.8 vs. 50.0 mean years; p = 0.009); be on opiate substitution (14.1% vs. 6.3%; p = 0.023); and acknowledge poly-substance (38.9% vs. 24.4%; p = 0.012) and excessive alcohol use (13.9% vs. 6.0%; p = 0.019). Conversely, a smaller proportion of those with an unsuppressed viral load had multiple sex partners in the previous 30 days (39.8% vs. 58.5%; p = 0.003). In multivariable regression of those on ART, the prevalence of an unsuppressed viral load was 3% lower with each increasing year of age (aPR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95, 0.99) and 47% lower with income over $25,000/year (aPR: 0.33; 95% CI: 0.16, 0.70). In a separate analysis of all 500 subjects, ART was less frequently prescribed to blacks compared to whites, heterosexuals, those with lower education and income, and persons with active substance use. Findings confirm that a large proportion of PLWH and engaged in care were not virally suppressed and continued behaviors that risk transmission, indicating the need for screening, prevention counseling and access to ancillary services to lower the incidence of HIV infections.     

The Semen Microbiome and Its Relationship with Local Immunology and Viral Load in HIV Infection

Semen is a major vector for HIV transmission, but the semen HIV RNA viral load (VL) only correlates moderately with the blood VL. Viral shedding can be enhanced by genital infections and associated inflammation, but it can also occur in the absence of classical pathogens. Thus, we hypothesized that a dysregulated semen microbiome correlates with local HIV shedding. We analyzed semen samples from 49 men who have sex with men (MSM), including 22 HIV-uninfected and 27 HIV-infected men, at baseline and after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) using 16S rRNA gene-based pyrosequencing and quantitative PCR. We studied the relationship of semen bacteria with HIV infection, semen cytokine levels, and semen VL by linear regression, non-metric multidimensional scaling, and goodness-of-fit test. Streptococcus, Corynebacterium, and Staphylococcus were common semen bacteria, irrespective of HIV status. While Ureaplasma was the more abundant Mollicutes in HIV-uninfected men, Mycoplasma dominated after HIV infection. HIV infection was associated with decreased semen microbiome diversity and richness, which were restored after six months of ART. In HIV-infected men, semen bacterial load correlated with seven pro-inflammatory semen cytokines, including IL-6 (p = 0.024), TNF-α (p = 0.009), and IL-1b (p = 0.002). IL-1b in particular was associated with semen VL (r² = 0.18, p = 0.02). Semen bacterial load was also directly linked to the semen HIV VL (r² = 0.15, p = 0.02). HIV infection reshapes the relationship between semen bacteria and pro-inflammatory cytokines, and both are linked to semen VL, which supports a role of the semen microbiome in HIV sexual transmission.     

Human Leukocyte Antigens and HIV Type 1 Viral Load in Early and Chronic Infection: Predominance of Evolving Relationships

Background

During untreated, chronic HIV-1 infection, plasma viral load (VL) is a relatively stable quantitative trait that has clinical and epidemiological implications. Immunogenetic research has established various human genetic factors, especially human leukocyte antigen (HLA) variants, as independent determinants of VL set-point.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To identify and clarify HLA alleles that are associated with either transient or durable immune control of HIV-1 infection, we evaluated the relationships of HLA class I and class II alleles with VL among 563 seroprevalent Zambians (SPs) who were seropositive at enrollment and 221 seroconverters (SCs) who became seropositive during quarterly follow-up visits. After statistical adjustments for non-genetic factors (sex and age), two unfavorable alleles (A*3601 and DRB1*0102) were independently associated with high VL in SPs (p<0.01) but not in SCs. In contrast, favorable HLA variants, mainly A*74, B*13, B*57 (or Cw*18), and one HLA-A and HLA-C combination (A*30+Cw*03), dominated in SCs; their independent associations with low VL were reflected in regression beta estimates that ranged from −0.47±0.23 to −0.92±0.32 log₁₀ in SCs (p<0.05). Except for Cw*18, all favorable variants had diminishing or vanishing association with VL in SPs (p≤0.86).

Conclusions/Significance

Overall, each of the three HLA class I genes had at least one allele that might contribute to effective immune control, especially during the early course of HIV-1 infection. These observations can provide a useful framework for ongoing analyses of viral mutations induced by protective immune responses.     

Structure and Dynamics of Ribosomal Protein L12: An Ensemble Model Based on SAXS and NMR Relaxation

Ribosomal protein L12 is a two-domain protein that forms dimers mediated by its N-terminal domains. A 20-residue linker separates the N- and C-terminal domains. This linker results in a three-lobe topology with significant flexibility, known to be critical for efficient translation. Here we present an ensemble model of spatial distributions and correlation times for the domain reorientations of L12 that reconciles experimental data from small-angle x-ray scattering and nuclear magnetic resonance. We generated an ensemble of L12 conformations in which the structure of each domain is fixed but the domain orientations are variable. The ensemble reproduces the small-angle x-ray scattering data and the optimized correlation times of its reorientational eigenmodes fit the ¹⁵N relaxation data. The ensemble model reveals intrinsic conformational properties of L12 that help explain its function on the ribosome. The two C-terminal domains sample a large volume and extend further away from the ribosome anchor than expected for a random-chain linker, indicating that the flexible linker has residual order. Furthermore, the distances between each C-terminal domain and the anchor are anticorrelated, indicating that one of them is more retracted on average. We speculate that these properties promote the function of L12 to recruit translation factors and control their activity on the ribosome.     

Impact of Genetic Heterogeneity in Polymerase of Hepatitis B Virus on Dynamics of Viral Load and Hepatitis B Progression

Objective

The hepatitis B virus (HBV)-polymerase region overlaps pre-S/S genes with high epitope density and plays an essential role in viral replication. We investigated whether genetic variation in the polymerase region determined long-term dynamics of viral load and the risk of hepatitis B progression in a population-based cohort study.

Methods

We sequenced the HBV-polymerase region using baseline plasma from treatment-naïve individuals with HBV-DNA levels≥1000 copies/mL in a longitudinal viral-load study of participants with chronic HBV infection followed-up for 17 years, and obtained sequences from 575 participants (80% with HBV genotype Ba and 17% with Ce).

Results

Patterns of viral sequence diversity across phases (i.e., immune-tolerant, immune-clearance, non/low replicative, and hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative hepatitis phases) of HBV-infection, which were associated with viral and clinical features at baseline and during follow-up, were similar between HBV genotypes, despite greater diversity for genotype Ce vs. Ba. Irrespective of genotypes, however, HBeAg-negative participants had 1.5-to-2-fold higher levels of sequence diversity than HBeAg-positive participants (P<0.0001). Furthermore, levels of viral genetic divergence from the population consensus sequence, estimated by numbers of nucleotide substitutions, were inversely associated with long-term viral load even in HBeAg-negative participants. A mixed model developed through analysis of the entire HBV-polymerase region identified 153 viral load-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms in overall and 136 in HBeAg-negative participants, with distinct profiles between HBV genotypes. These polymorphisms were most evident at sites within or flanking T-cell epitopes. Seven polymorphisms revealed associations with both enhanced viral load and a more than 4-fold increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and/or liver cirrhosis.

Conclusions

The data highlight a role of viral genetic divergence in the natural course of HBV-infection. Interindividual differences in the long-term dynamics of viral load is not only associated with accumulation of mutations in HBV-polymerase region, but differences in specific viral polymorphisms which differ between genotypes.     

Progress Realized: Trends in HIV-1 Viral Load and CD4 Cell Count in a Tertiary-Care Center from 1999 through 2011

Background

HIV-1 RNA and CD4 cell counts are important parameters for HIV care. The objective of this study was to assess the overall trends in HIV-1 viral load and CD4 cell counts within our clinic.

Methods

Patients with at least one of each test performed by the Infectious Diseases Laboratory from 1999 through 2011 were included in this analysis. By adapting a novel statistical model, log₁₀ HIV-1 RNA means were estimated by month, and log₁₀-transformed HIV-1 RNA means were estimated by calendar year. Geometric means were calculated for CD4 cell counts by month and calendar year. Log₁₀ HIV-1 RNA and CD4 cell count monthly means were also examined with polynomial regression.

Results

There were 1,814 individuals with approximately 25,000 paired tests over the 13-year observation period. Based on each patient''s final value of the year, the percentage of patients with viral loads below the lower limit of quantitation rose from 29% in 1999 to 72% in 2011, while the percentage with CD4 counts <200 cells/µL fell from 31% to 11%. On average annually, the mean HIV-1 RNA decreased by 86 copies/mL and the mean CD4 counts increased by 16 cells/µL. For the monthly means, the correlations (R²) from second-order polynomial regressions were 0.944 for log₁₀ HIV-1 RNA and 0.840 for CD4 cell counts.

Conclusions

Marked improvements in HIV-1 RNA suppression and CD4 cell counts were achieved in a large inner-city population from 1999 through 2011. This success demonstrates that sustained viral control with improved immunologic status can be a realistic goal for most individuals in clinical care.     

Human Growth and Body Weight Dynamics: An Integrative Systems Model

Quantifying human weight and height dynamics due to growth, aging, and energy balance can inform clinical practice and policy analysis. This paper presents the first mechanism-based model spanning full individual life and capturing changes in body weight, composition and height. Integrating previous empirical and modeling findings and validated against several additional empirical studies, the model replicates key trends in human growth including A) Changes in energy requirements from birth to old ages. B) Short and long-term dynamics of body weight and composition. C) Stunted growth with chronic malnutrition and potential for catch up growth. From obesity policy analysis to treating malnutrition and tracking growth trajectories, the model can address diverse policy questions. For example I find that even without further rise in obesity, the gap between healthy and actual Body Mass Indexes (BMIs) has embedded, for different population groups, a surplus of 14%–24% in energy intake which will be a source of significant inertia in obesity trends. In another analysis, energy deficit percentage needed to reduce BMI by one unit is found to be relatively constant across ages. Accompanying documented and freely available simulation model facilitates diverse applications customized to different sub-populations.     

An Intra-Host Mathematical Model on Interaction Between HIV and Malaria

In this paper a mathematical model is proposed for the interaction of the immune system with HIV viruses and malaria parasites in an individual host. It consists of a system of three coupled ordinary differential equations, which represents the rate of change in the concentration of malaria parasites, HIV viruses and immunity effector within a host, respectively. The theoretical model gives insight into the biological balance between pathogen replication and the immune response to the pathogen: persistence versus elimination of the pathogen, which determines the outcome of infection. Dynamical analysis shows that the outcomes of the interactions between the immune system of the host with either malaria parasites or HIV viruses are dramatic such as malaria infection promoting proliferation of HIV virus, HIV infection increasing the risk from malaria and the immune system of the host failing to keep the diseases under control, etc. The results provide a new perspective for understanding of the complexity mechanisms of the co-infection (or dual infection) with malaria and HIV in a host.     

Model-free Analysis of Protein Dynamics: Assessment of Accuracy and Model Selection Protocols Based on Molecular Dynamics Simulation

The popular model-free approach to analyze NMR relaxation measurements has been examined using artificial amide (15)N relaxation data sets generated from a 10 nanosecond molecular dynamics trajectory of a dihydrofolate reductase ternary complex in explicit water. With access to a detailed picture of the underlying internal motions, the efficacy of model-free analysis and impact of model selection protocols on the interpretation of NMR data can be studied. In the limit of uncorrelated global tumbling and internal motions, fitting the relaxation data to the model-free models can recover a significant amount of quantitative information on the internal dynamics. Despite a slight overestimation, the generalized order parameter is quite accurately determined. However, the model-free analysis appears to be insensitive to the presence of nanosecond time scale motions with relatively small magnitude. For such cases, the effective correlation time can be significantly underestimated. As a result, proteins appear to be more rigid than they really are. The model selection protocols have a major impact on the information one can reliably obtain. The commonly employed protocol based on step-up hypothesis testing has severe drawbacks of oversimplification and underfitting. The consequences are that the order parameter is more severely overestimated and the correlation time more severely underestimated. Instead, model selection based on Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), recently introduced to the model-free analysis by d'Auvergne and Gooley (2003), provides a better balance between bias and variance. More appropriate models can be selected, leading to improved estimate of both the order parameter and correlation time. In addition, the computational cost is significantly reduced and subjective parameters such as the significance level are unnecessary.     

Influence of Humic Substances on Bacterial and Viral Dynamics in Freshwaters

Bacterial and viral abundances were measured in 24 lakes with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations ranging from 3 to 19 mg of C liter⁻¹. In addition, a laboratory experiment was performed to test the effects of different sources of carbon (i.e., glucose and fulvic acids) and nutrients on the dynamics of viruses and bacteria. In the lake survey, no correlation was found between virus abundance and DOC concentration, yet there was a significant positive correlation between bacterial abundance and DOC concentration. A negative correlation was found between the virus-to-bacteria ratio and DOC level. These results are in agreement with our findings in the laboratory, where virus counts were significantly lower in treatments with fulvic acid additions than in a control (mean, 67.4% ± 6.5% of the control). Virus counts did not differ significantly among the control and treatments with glucose, indicating that it was the type of organic carbon and not quantity which had an impact on viruses. Results from this study suggest that the way viruses control bacterial assemblages in humic lakes is different from the mechanism in clear water systems.     

Evaluating the Impact of Test-and-Treat on the HIV Epidemic among MSM in China Using a Mathematical Model

Background

Various studies have modeled the impact of test-and-treat policies on the HIV epidemics worldwide. However, few modeling studies have taken into account China’s context. To understand the potential effect of test-and-treat on the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China, we developed a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of the strategy.

Method

Based on the natural history of the CD4 count of people living with HIV and AIDS (PLWHA), we constructed a dynamic compartmental model of HIV transmission among Chinese MSM to project the number of HIV new infections and prevalence over 10 years. We predicted the annual number of HIV new infections and the total number of MSM living with HIV and AIDS (based on Beijing data) between 2010 and 2022 under the following conditions: (1) current practice (testing rate of 50% and ART coverage of 39%); (2) both testing rate and ART coverage increasing to 70% in 2013; (3) both testing rate and ART coverage increasing to 90% in 2013; and (4) both testing rate and ART coverage increasing gradually every year until 90% since 2013.

Results

Based on our model, if the HIV test-and-treat policy was implemented among Chinese MSM, the total number of HIV new infections over 10 years (2013-2022) would be reduced by 50.6-70.9% compared with the current policy. When ART coverage for PLWHA increased to 58% since 2013, the ‘turning point’ would occur on the curve of HIV new infections by 2015. A 25% reduction in annual number of HIV new infections by 2015 might be achieved if the testing rate increased from 50% to 70% and treatment coverage for PLWHA increased to 55% since 2013.

Conclusion

Implementation of the test-and-treat strategy may significantly reduce HIV new infections among MSM in China. Great efforts need to be made to scale up HIV testing rate and ART coverage among Chinese MSM.