Dispersal through stream networks: modelling climate‐driven range expansions of fishes

Aim To incorporate dispersal through stream networks into models predicting the future distribution of a native, freshwater fish given climate change scenarios. Location Sweden. Methods We used logistic regression to fit climate and habitat data to observed pike (Esox lucius Linnaeus) distributions in 13,476 lakes. We used GIS to map dispersal pathways through streams. Lakes either (1) contained pike or were downstream from pike lakes, (2) were upstream from pike lakes, but downstream from natural dispersal barriers, or (3) were isolated from streams or were upstream from natural dispersal barriers. We then used climate projections to model future distributions of pike and compared our results with and without including dispersal. Results Given climate and habitat, pike were predicted present in all of 99,249 Swedish lakes by 2100. After accounting for dispersal barriers, we only predicted pike presence in 31,538 lakes. Dispersal barriers most strongly limited pike invasion in mountainous regions, but low connectivity also characterized some relatively flat regions. Main conclusions The dendritic network structure of streams and interconnected lakes makes a two‐dimensional representation of the landscape unsuitable for predicting range shifts of many freshwater organisms. If dispersal through stream networks is not accounted for, predictions of future fish distributions in a warmer climate might grossly overestimate range expansions of warm and cool‐water fishes and underestimate range contractions of cold‐water fishes. Dispersal through stream networks can be modelled in any region for which a digital elevation model and species occurrence data are available.     

Gene flow and functional connectivity in the natterjack toad

Functional connectivity is a key factor for the persistence of many specialist species in fragmented landscapes. However, connectivity estimates have rarely been validated by the observation of dispersal movements. In this study, we estimated functional connectivity of a real landscape by modelling dispersal for the endangered natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) using cost distance. Cost distance allows the evaluation of 'effective distances', which are distances corrected for the costs involved in moving between habitat patches in spatially explicit landscapes. We parameterized cost-distance models using the results of our previous experimental investigation of natterjack's movement behaviour. These model predictions (connectivity estimates from the GIS study) were then confronted to genetic-based dispersal rates between natterjack populations in the same landscape using Mantel tests. Dispersal rates between the populations were inferred from variation at six microsatellite loci. Based on these results, we conclude that matrix structure has a strong effect on dispersal rates. Moreover, we found that cost distances generated by habitat preferences explained dispersal rates better than did the Euclidian distances, or the connectivity estimate based on patch-specific resistances (patch viscosity). This study is a clear example of how landscape genetics can validate operational functional connectivity estimates.     

Miniaturizing landscapes to understand species distributions

Species’ geographic distributions shape global patterns of biodiversity and therefore have long been of interest to ecology and conservation. Theory has generated valuable hypotheses about how landscape structure, dispersal, biotic interactions and evolution shape range dynamics, but most predictions have not been tested on real organisms because key variables are difficult to isolate, replicate or manipulate in natural ecosystems. An exciting and rapidly emerging approach is to extend classical microcosm and mesocosm systems to create experimental ‘micro-landscapes’. By enabling researchers to manipulate geographic features of interest, replicate landscapes, control colonization and follow dynamics across evolutionary timescales, micro-landscapes allow explicit tests of the ecological and evolutionary underpinnings of species distributions. Here we review the micro-landscape systems being used to advance biogeography, the major insights they have generated thus far, and the features that limit their application to some scenarios. We end by highlighting important questions about species’ biogeography that are ripe for testing with experimental micro-landscapes, particularly those of immediate concern given rapid global change, such as range contractions and constraints to range expansion.     

Predicting landscape-genetic consequences of habitat loss, fragmentation and mobility for multiple species of woodland birds

Inference concerning the impact of habitat fragmentation on dispersal and gene flow is a key theme in landscape genetics. Recently, the ability of established approaches to identify reliably the differential effects of landscape structure (e.g. land-cover composition, remnant vegetation configuration and extent) on the mobility of organisms has been questioned. More explicit methods of predicting and testing for such effects must move beyond post hoc explanations for single landscapes and species. Here, we document a process for making a priori predictions, using existing spatial and ecological data and expert opinion, of the effects of landscape structure on genetic structure of multiple species across replicated landscape blocks. We compare the results of two common methods for estimating the influence of landscape structure on effective distance: least-cost path analysis and isolation-by-resistance. We present a series of alternative models of genetic connectivity in the study area, represented by different landscape resistance surfaces for calculating effective distance, and identify appropriate null models. The process is applied to ten species of sympatric woodland-dependant birds. For each species, we rank a priori the expectation of fit of genetic response to the models according to the expected response of birds to loss of structural connectivity and landscape-scale tree-cover. These rankings (our hypotheses) are presented for testing with empirical genetic data in a subsequent contribution. We propose that this replicated landscape, multi-species approach offers a robust method for identifying the likely effects of landscape fragmentation on dispersal.     

Modularity along organism dispersal gradients challenges a prevailing view of abrupt transitions in animal landscape perception

A common property of landscapes and metacommunities is the occurrence of abrupt shifts in connectivity along gradients of individual dispersal abilities. Animals with short‐range dispersal capability perceive fragmented landscapes, but organisms moving across critical thresholds perceive continuous landscapes. This qualitative shift in landscape perception may determine several attributes of local communities and the dynamics of whole metacommunities. Modularity describes the existence in some communities of relatively high numbers of mutual connections favoring the movement of neighboring individuals (even when each individual is able to reach any patch in the landscape). Local patch linkages and metacommunity connectivity along gradients of dispersal ability have been reported frequently. However, the intermediate level of structure captured by modularity has not been considered. We evaluated landscape connectivity and modularity along gradients of individual dispersal abilities. Random landscapes with different degrees of cell aggregation and occupancy were simulated; we also analyzed ten real ecosystems. An expected, a shift in landscape connectivity was always detected; modularity consistently decreased gradually along dispersal gradients in both simulated networks and empirical landscapes. Neutral metacommunities within simulated landscapes demonstrated that modularity and connectivity may reflect landscape traits in the shaping of metacommunity diversity. Average beta‐diversity was strongly associated with modularity, particularly with low migration rates, while connectivity trends tracked changes in beta‐diversity at intermediate to high migrations rates. Consequently, while some species are able to perceive abrupt transitions in the landscape, many others probably experience a gradual continuum in landscape perception, contrary to predictions from previous analyses. Furthermore, the gradual behavior of modularity indicates that it may represent an exceptional early‐warning tool that measures system distance to tipping points. Our study highlights the multiple perceptions that different species may have of a single landscape and shows, for the first time, a theoretical and empirical relationship between landscape modularity, and metacommunity diversity.     

Coupling inter-patch movement models and landscape graph to assess functional connectivity

Landscape connectivity is a key process for the functioning and persistence of spatially-structured populations in fragmented landscapes. Butterflies are particularly sensitive to landscape change and are excellent model organisms to study landscape connectivity. Here, we infer functional connectivity from the assessment of the selection of different landscape elements in a highly fragmented landscape in the Île-de-France region (France). Firstly we measured the butterfly preferences of the Large White butterfly (Pieris brassicae) in different landscape elements using individual release experiments. Secondly, we used an inter-patch movement model based on butterfly choices to build the selection map of the landscape elements to moving butterflies. From this map, functional connectivity network of P. brassicae was modelled using landscape graph-based approach. In our study area, we identified nine components/groups of connected habitat patches, eight of them located in urbanized areas, whereas the last one covered the more rural areas. Eventually, we provided elements to validate the predictions of our model with independent experiments of mass release-recapture of butterflies. Our study shows (1) the efficiency of our inter-patch movement model based on species preferences in predicting complex ecological processes such as dispersal and (2) how inter-patch movement model results coupled to landscape graph can assess landscape functional connectivity at large spatial scales.     

Evaluating population connectivity for species of conservation concern in the American Great Plains

Habitat loss and fragmentation are widely recognized as among the most important threats to global biodiversity. New analytical approaches are providing an improved ability to predict the effects of landscape change on population connectivity at vast spatial extents. This paper presents an analysis of population connectivity for three species of conservation concern [swift fox (Vulpes velox); lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus); massasuaga (Sistrurus catenatus)] across the American Great Plains region. We used factorial least-cost path and resistant kernel analyses to predict effects of landscape conditions on corridor network connectivity. Our predictions of population connectivity provide testable hypotheses about the location of core habitats, corridors, and barriers to movement. The results indicate that connectivity is more sensitive to a species’ dispersal ability than variation in landscape resistance to movement. Thus, it may prove difficult to optimize conservation strategies to maintain population connectivity for multiple species with disparate dispersal abilities and independent distributions.     

The importance of blue and green landscape connectivity for biodiversity in urban ponds

The negative impact of urbanization on biodiversity can be buffered by blue (e.g., rivers, ponds) and green (e.g., parks, forests) spaces. However, to prevent biodiversity loss and reduce the risk of local extinctions, blue and green spaces need to be connected by corridors, so that organisms may disperse between sites. Landscape connectivity affects local community composition and metacommunity dynamics by facilitating dispersal. The goal of this study was to test the relative roles of pond environmental properties, spatial structure, and functional landscape connectivity on differentiation of invertebrate metacommunities in urban ponds in the city of Stockholm, Sweden. We characterized functional connectivity as blue connectivity (distance to water bodies), green connectivity (land use), and combined blue-green connectivity. We estimated functional connectivity by using electrical circuit theory to identify dispersal corridors. Interestingly, while circuit theory is often used in single-taxon studies, this method has rarely been applied to multiple taxa forming a metacommunity, as we have done in this study. Indeed, our study contributes toward an increased focus on the role of dispersal at the metacommunity level. We determined that functional connectivity was the most important factor in explaining community differentiation, with the local environment contributing comparatively little, and spatial structure the least. Combined blue-green functional connectivity had a major influence on structuring urban pond communities, explaining 7.8% of the variance in community composition across ponds. Furthermore, we found that increased functional connectivity was associated with an increase in the number of species. In summary, our results suggest that to preserve biodiversity in urban ponds, it is important to enhance functional connectivity, and that open green spaces could augment blue corridors in maintaining functional connectivity in urban pond metacommunities. To generalize these findings, future urban biodiversity studies should compare how functional connectivity affects metacommunities across multiple major cities.     

Context and connectivity in plant metapopulations and landscape mosaics: does the matrix matter?

Recent reviews of evidence for plant metapopulation prevalence in nature have concluded that most species appear not to be arranged as metapopulations – hence other frameworks may be necessary for understanding large‐scale, regional dynamics in plants. Separate but related paradigms from the disciplines of landscape ecology and metapopulation ecology exist for understanding patterns of regional population variation. The major models of both paradigms assume a binary landscape mosaic composed of “suitable habitat” and background “matrix.” An important distinction between the two approaches is that metapopulation models essentially ignore features of the matrix. A binary approach to the landscape seems inappropriate for plants for several reasons. First, plants probably do not have a binary perception of the landscape, but rather respond to gradients of resource quality. Thus properties of patches, or the matrix per se, may be less important than the nature of the landscape mosaic, in particular as this is reflected in terms of connectivity. Secondly, many plants rely on a range of other agents for dispersal of pollen and seed, all of which are also affected by their environment in terms of connectivity. Furthermore the various components of the mosaic, including physical, spatial and functional elements can significantly influence plant movements. We review important effects of the matrix – via composition and configuration of habitat patches, extent of edges, patterns of land use, etc., upon plant populations. We describe evidence supporting a general integration of metapopulation and landscape ecological approaches for understanding regional dynamics in plants, emphasizing notions of connectivity (traditionally measured in very different ways by metapopulation and landscape ecologists), and context, an emerging concept describing components of variability in the landscape from a species‐specific perspective. Finally, we describe a functional landscape mosaic approach that treats structural and functional features of the landscape and show how these interact to determine the fate of plant populations.     

Why dispersal should be maximized at intermediate scales of heterogeneity

Dispersal is a fundamental biological process that results in the redistribution of organisms due to the interplay between the mode of dispersal, the range of scales over which movement occurs, and the scale of spatial heterogeneity, in which patchiness may occur across a broad range of scales. Despite the diversity of dispersal mechanisms and dispersal length scales in nature, we posit that a fundamental scaling relationship should exist between dispersal and spatial heterogeneity. We present both a conceptual model and mathematical formalization of this expected relationship between the scale of dispersal and the scale of patchiness, which predicts that the magnitude of dispersal (number of individuals) among patches should be maximized when the scale of spatial heterogeneity (defined in terms of patch size and isolation) is neither too fine nor too coarse relative to the gap-crossing abilities of a species. We call this the “dispersal scaling hypothesis” (DSH). We demonstrate congruence in the functional form of this relationship under fundamentally different dispersal assumptions, using well-documented isotropic dispersal kernels and empirically derived dispersal parameters from diverse species, in order to explore the generality of this finding. The DSH generates testable hypotheses as to when and under what landscape scenarios dispersal is most likely to be successful. This provides insights into what management scenarios might be necessary to either restore landscape connectivity, as in certain conservation applications, or disrupt connectivity, as when attempting to manage landscapes to impede the spread of an invasive species, pest, or pathogen.     

Habitat restoration will help some functional plant types persist under climate change in fragmented landscapes

In the next century, global climate change is predicted to have large influences on species' distributions. Much of the research in this area has focused on predicting the areas where conditions will be suitable for the species in future, and thus the potential distribution of the species. However, it is equally important to predict the relative abilities of species to migrate into new suitable areas as conditions shift, while accounting for dynamic processes, such as dispersal, maturation, mortality, and reproduction, as well as landscape characteristics, such as level of habitat fragmentation and connectivity. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit individual‐based model that addresses these factors. As a motivating case study, we based aspects of the model on southwest Australia, a global biodiversity hotspot, but stress that the results obtained are generalizable beyond this region. Using the model, we enhanced current understanding of climate change impacts by investigating how and to what extent the functional traits of plant species affect their ability to move with climate change across landscapes with various levels of fragmentation. We also tested the efficacy of strategic restoration, such as planting corridors to increase connectivity among fragments. We found that even if the landscape is fully intact, only an average of 34.2% of all simulated functional groups had a good chance of successfully tracking climate change. However, our study highlights the power of strategic restoration as a tool for increasing species persistence. Corridors linking fragments increased species persistence rates by up to 24%. The lowest persistence rates were found for trees, a functional group with high dispersal but also long generation times. Our results indicate that for trees intervention techniques, such as assisted migration might be required to prevent species losses.     

Disentangling the role of connectivity,environmental filtering,and spatial structure on metacommunity dynamics

Dispersal is a key process in metacommunity dynamics, allowing the maintenance of diversity in complex community networks. Geographic distance is usually used as a surrogate for connectivity implying that communities that are closely located are considered more prone to exchange individuals than distant communities. However, in some natural systems, organisms may be subjected to directional dispersal (air or water flows, particular landscape configuration), possibly leading close communities to be isolated from each other and distant communities to be connected. Using geographic distance as a proxy for realised connectivity may then yield misleading results regarding the role of dispersal in structuring communities in such systems. Here, we quantified the relative importance of flow connectivity, geographic distance, and environmental gradients to explain polychaete metacommunity structure along the coasts of the Gulf of Lions (northwest Mediterranean Sea). Flow connectivity was estimated by Lagrangian particle dispersal simulations. Our results revealed that this metacommunity is strongly structured by the environment at large spatial scales, and that both flow connectivity and geographic distance play an important role within homogeneous environments at smaller spatial scales. We thus strongly advocate for a wider use of connectivity measures, in addition to geographic distance, to study spatial patterns of biological diversity (e.g. distance decay) and to infer the processes behind these patterns at different spatial scales. Synthesis Everything is connected, but connections are seldom accurately quantified. Biological communities are often studied separately, using observations, experiments and models to unravel local dynamics of organisms interacting with each other. However, regional processes such as dispersal through ocean and air circulation, likely to connect distant communities and influence their local dynamics, are not always accounted for, or, at best, used as an homogeneous and distance‐related factor. Ocean models have being extensively developed and validated during the past decades with the increasing availability of accurate meteorological data. Using such model outputs, precise quantifi cation of exchange rates of organisms between communities was performed in a marine Mediterranean coastal area. Jointly with local environmental and biological data, these results were used to quantify the effects of realistic connectivity on local and regional polychaete community structure, and revealed that the environmental gradient, geographic distance, and connectivity were responsible for community structure at different spatial scales.     

Potential impacts of climate and landscape fragmentation changes on plant distributions: Coupling multi-temporal satellite imagery with GIS-based cellular automata model

Climate change and landscape fragmentation are considered to be the main treats to biodiversity. In this study, probable alteration of future species distribution was tested based on the association of landscape fragmentation and climate change scenarios compared to the classical approach that assumed an unchanged landscape. Also, projected range shifts including realistic dispersal scenarios were compared with classical models, in which no or full dispersal has been supposed.A GIS-based cellular automata model, MigClim, was implemented to projection of future distribution over the 21st century for three plant species in a study area of the central Germany. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (full dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal, and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events), two landscape fragmentation (static and dynamic change) and two climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. In this research, temporal satellite data were utilized to simulate landscape changes by the use of a hybrid (CA-Markov) model for the years 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2080.A significant difference appears to be between the simulations of realistic dispersal limitations and those considering full or no dispersal for projected future distributions. Although simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our study area, results that were closer to no dispersal than to full dispersal. Additionally, our results revealed that change in landscape fragmentation is more effective than the climate change impacts on species distributions in this study.     

Sex‐specific graphs: Relating group‐specific topology to demographic and landscape data

Sex‐specific genetic structure is a commonly observed pattern among vertebrate species. Facing differential selective pressures, individuals may adopt sex‐specific life history traits that ultimately shape genetic variation among populations. Although differential dispersal dynamics are commonly detected in the literature, few studies have used genetic structure to investigate sex‐specific functional connectivity. The recent use of graph theoretic approaches in landscape genetics has demonstrated network capacities to describe complex system behaviours where network topology represents genetic interaction among subunits. Here, we partition the overall genetic structure into sex‐specific graphs, revealing different male and female dispersal dynamics of a fisher (Pekania [Martes] pennanti) metapopulation in southern Ontario. Our analyses based on network topologies supported the hypothesis of male‐biased dispersal. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the effect of the landscape, identified at the population level, could be partitioned among sex‐specific strata. We found that female connectivity was negatively correlated with snow depth, whereas connectivity among males was not. Our findings underscore the potential of conducting sex‐specific analysis by identifying landscape elements or configuration that differentially promotes or impedes functional connectivity between sexes, revealing processes that may otherwise remain cryptic. We propose that the sex‐specific graph approach would be applicable to other vagile species where differential sex‐specific processes are expected to occur.     

How does intraspecific density regulation influence metapopulation synchrony and persistence?

Intraspecific density regulation influences the synchronization of local population dynamics through dispersal. Spatial synchrony in turn may jeopardize metapopulation persistence. Joining results from previous studies suggests that spatial synchrony is highest at moderate over-compensation and is low at compensating and at very strong over-compensating density regulation. We scrutinize this supposition of a unimodal relationship using a process-based metapopulation model with explicit local population dynamics. We extend the usually studied range of density regulation to under-compensation and analyse resulting metapopulation persistence. We find peaks of spatial synchrony not only at over-compensatory but also under-compensatory density regulation and show that effects of local density compensation on synchrony follow a bimodal rather than unimodal relationship. Persistence of metapopulations however, shows a unimodal relationship with a broad plateau of high persistence from compensatory to over-compensatory density regulation. This range of high persistence comprises both levels of low and high spatial synchrony. Thus, not synchrony alone jeopardizes metapopulation persistence, but only in interplay with high local extinction risk. The functional forms of the relations of density compensation with spatial synchrony and persistence are robust to increases in dispersal mortality, landscape dynamics, or density dependence of dispersal. However, with each of these increases the maxima of spatial synchrony and persistence shift to higher over-compensation and levels of synchrony are reduced. Overall, for over-compensation high landscape connectivity has negative effects while for under-compensation connectivity affects persistence positively. This emphasizes the importance of species life-history traits for management decisions with regard to landscape connectivity: while dispersal corridors are essential for species with under-compensatory density regulation, they may have detrimental effects for endangered species with over-compensation.     

A modeling framework for the establishment and spread of invasive species in heterogeneous environments

Natural and human‐induced events are continuously altering the structure of our landscapes and as a result impacting the spatial relationships between individual landscape elements and the species living in the area. Yet, only recently has the influence of the surrounding landscape on invasive species spread started to be considered. The scientific community increasingly recognizes the need for broader modeling framework that focuses on cross‐study comparisons at different spatiotemporal scales. Using two illustrative examples, we introduce a general modeling framework that allows for a systematic investigation of the effect of habitat change on invasive species establishment and spread. The essential parts of the framework are (i) a mechanistic spatially explicit model (a modular dispersal framework—MDIG ) that allows population dynamics and dispersal to be modeled in a geographical information system (GIS ), (ii) a landscape generator that allows replicated landscape patterns with partially controllable spatial properties to be generated, and (iii) landscape metrics that depict the essential aspects of landscape with which dispersal and demographic processes interact. The modeling framework provides functionality for a wide variety of applications ranging from predictions of the spatiotemporal spread of real species and comparison of potential management strategies, to theoretical investigation of the effect of habitat change on population dynamics. Such a framework allows to quantify how small‐grain landscape characteristics, such as habitat size and habitat connectivity, interact with life‐history traits to determine the dynamics of invasive species spread in fragmented landscape. As such, it will give deeper insights into species traits and landscape features that lead to establishment and spread success and may be key to preventing new incursions and the development of efficient monitoring, surveillance, control or eradication programs.     

The Effects of Seed Dispersal on the Simulation of Long-Term Forest Landscape Change

The study of forest landscape change requires an understanding of the complex interactions of both spatial and temporal factors. Traditionally, forest gap models have been used to simulate change on small and independent plots. While gap models are useful in examining forest ecological dynamics across temporal scales, large, spatial processes, such as seed dispersal, cannot be realistically simulated across large landscapes. To simulate seed dispersal, spatially explicit landscape models that track individual species distribution are needed. We used such a model, LANDIS, to illustrate the implications of seed dispersal for simulating forest landscape change. On an artificial open landscape with a uniform environment, circular-shaped tree species establishment patterns resulted from the simulations, with areas near seed sources more densely covered than areas further from seed sources. Because LANDIS simulates at 10-y time steps, this pattern reflects an integration of various possible dispersal shapes and establishment that are caused by the annual variations in climate and other environmental variables. On real landscapes, these patterns driven only by species dispersal radii are obscured by other factors, such as species competition, disturbance, and landscape structure. To further demonstrate the effects of seed dispersal, we chose a fairly disturbed and fragmented forest landscape (approximately 500,000 ha) in northern Wisconsin. We compared the simulation results of a map with tree species (seed source locations) realistically parameterized (the real scenario) against a randomly parameterized species map (the random scenario). Differences in the initial seed source distribution lead to different simulation results of species abundance with species abundance starting at identical levels under the two scenarios. This is particularly true for the first half of the model run (0–250 y). Under the random scenario, infrequently occurring and shade tolerant species tend to be overestimated, while midabundant and midshade tolerant species tend to be underestimated. The over- and underestimation of species abundance diminish when examining long-term (500 y) landscape dynamics, because stochastic factors, such as fire, tend to make the landscapes under both scenarios converge. However, differences in spatial patterns, and especially species age-cohort distributions, can persist under the two scenarios for several hundred years. Received 24 November 1998; accepted 17 March 1999.     

Global patterns in the shape of species geographical ranges reveal range determinants

Aim Do species range shapes follow general patterns? If so, what mechanisms underlie those patterns? We show for 11,582 species from a variety of taxa across the world that most species have similar latitudinal and longitudinal ranges. We then seek to disentangle the roles of climate, extrinsic dispersal limitation (e.g. barriers) and intrinsic dispersal limitation (reflecting a species’ ability to disperse) as constraints of species range shape. We also assess the relationship between range size and shape. Location Global. Methods Range shape patterns were measured as the slope of the regression of latitudinal species ranges against longitudinal ranges for each taxon and continent, and as the coefficient of determination measuring the degree of scattering of species ranges from the 1:1 line (i.e. latitudinal range = longitudinal range). Two major competing hypotheses explaining species distributions (i.e. dispersal or climatic determinism) were explored. To this end, we compared the observed slopes and coefficients of determination with those predicted by a climatic null model that estimates the potential range shapes in the absence of dispersal limitation. The predictions compared were that species distribution shapes are determined purely by (1) intrinsic dispersal limitation, (2) extrinsic dispersal limitations such as topographic barriers, and (3) climate. Results  Using this methodology, we show for a wide variety of taxa across the globe that species generally have very similar latitudinal and longitudinal ranges. However, neither neutral models assuming random but spatially constrained dispersal, nor models assuming climatic control of species distributions describe range shapes adequately. The empirical relationship between the latitudinal and longitudinal ranges of species falls between the predictions of these competing models. Main conclusions We propose that this pattern arises from the combined effect of macroclimate and intrinsic dispersal limitation, the latter being the major determinant among restricted‐range species. Hence, accurately projecting the impact of climate change onto species ranges will require a solid understanding of how climate and dispersal jointly control species ranges.     

Predicting global population connectivity and targeting conservation action for snow leopard across its range

Movements of individuals within and among populations help to maintain genetic variability and population viability. Therefore, understanding landscape connectivity is vital for effective species conservation. The snow leopard is endemic to mountainous areas of central Asia and occurs within 12 countries. We assess potential connectivity across the species’ range to highlight corridors for dispersal and genetic flow between populations, prioritizing research and conservation action for this wide‐ranging, endangered top‐predator. We used resistant kernel modeling to assess snow leopard population connectivity across its global range. We developed an expert‐based resistance surface that predicted cost of movement as functions of topographical complexity and land cover. The distribution of individuals was simulated as a uniform density of points throughout the currently accepted global range. We modeled population connectivity from these source points across the resistance surface using three different dispersal scenarios that likely bracket the lifetime movements of individual snow leopard: 100 km, 500 km and 1000 km. The resistant kernel models produced predictive surfaces of dispersal frequency across the snow leopard range for each distance scenario. We evaluated the pattern of connectivity in each of these scenarios and identified potentially important movement corridors and areas where connectivity might be impeded. The models predicted two regional populations, in the north and south of the species range respectively, and revealed a number of potentially important connecting areas. Discrepancies between model outputs and observations highlight unsurveyed areas of connected habitat that urgently require surveying to improve understanding of the global distribution and ecology of snow leopard, and target land management actions to prevent population isolation. The connectivity maps provide a strong basis for directed research and conservation action, and usefully direct the attention of policy makers.     

The effects of plant traits on species' responses to present and historical patch configurations and patch age

Patch configuration is viewed as an important factor affecting the distributions of plant species. Although a number of studies have explored the relationship between plant life‐history traits and species’ distributions in fragmented landscapes, the effect of individual traits on the dependence of species on historical versus current landscape configurations remains unclear. We identified the extent to which present (2000s) and historical (1843, 1954, 1980s) patch configurations (area and connectivity) and patch age affected the distributions of 99 species inhabiting dry calcareous grasslands. We used traits related to dispersal, survival, growth and habitat preferences to explain the dependence of 60 of these species on present and historical configurations, and the age of grassland patches. We found that most of the species had an affinity to currently or historically large, older and more isolated patches. This suggests that many dry grassland species are not in equilibrium with the current landscape, as their distributions still reflect past landscape structures. Rapidly growing species with higher seed bank longevity and nutrient requirements primarily occur in young, large grassland patches whereas species with the opposite traits occur in older, historically large and currently more isolated smaller patches. We hypothesise that patch quality is the reason why different species occupy patches of different age. Species occupying young, large patches commonly disperse by endozoochory. By contrast, no dispersal trait is associated with species occupying old, usually isolated patches. Our results suggest that species occupying old patches are exposed to higher potential risk of extinction, as their distributions are probably limited by the low number and connectivity of available suitable patches and poor dispersal ability. We thus suggest that the dynamics of these species can effectively be supported by improving the quality of young grassland patches.