Calculation of the 1995 lung cancer incidence in the Netherlands and Sweden caused by smoking and radon: risk implications for radon

A two-mutation carcinogenesis model was used to calculate the expected lung cancer incidence caused by both smoking and exposure to radon in two populations, i.e. those of the Netherlands and Sweden. The model parameters were taken from a previous analysis of lung cancer in smokers and uranium miners and the model was applied to the two populations taking into account the smoking habits and exposure to radon. For both countries, the smoking histories and indoor radon exposure data for the period 1910-1995 were reconstructed and used in the calculations. Compared with the number of lung cancer cases observed in 1995 among both males and females in the two countries, the calculations show that between 72% and 94% of the registered lung cancer cases may be attributable to the combined effects of radon and smoking. In the Netherlands, a portion of about 4% and in Sweden, a portion of about 20% of the lung cancer cases (at ages 0-80 years) may be attributable to radon exposure, the numbers for males being slightly lower than for females. In the Netherlands, the proportions of lung cancers attributable to smoking are 91% for males and 71% for females; in Sweden, the figures are 70% and 56%, respectively. The risk from radon exposure is dependent on gender and cigarette smoking: the excess absolute risk for continuous exposure to 100 Bq m-3 ranges between 0.003 and 0.006 and compares well with current estimates, e.g. 0.0043 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The excess relative risk for continuous exposure to 100 Bq m-3 shows a larger variation, ranging generally between 0.1 for smokers and 1.0 for non-smokers. The results support the assumption that exposure to (indoor) radon, even at a level as low as background radiation, causes lung cancer proportional to the dose and is consistent with risk factors derived from the miners data.     

Quantitative health impact of indoor radon in France

Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. Since the previous quantitative risk assessment of indoor radon conducted in France, input data have changed such as, estimates of indoor radon concentrations, lung cancer rates and the prevalence of tobacco consumption. The aim of this work was to update the risk assessment of lung cancer mortality attributable to indoor radon in France using recent risk models and data, improving the consideration of smoking, and providing results at a fine geographical scale. The data used were population data (2012), vital statistics on death from lung cancer (2008–2012), domestic radon exposure from a recent database that combines measurement results of indoor radon concentration and the geogenic radon potential map for France (2015), and smoking prevalence (2010). The risk model used was derived from a European epidemiological study, considering that lung cancer risk increased by 16% per 100 becquerels per cubic meter (Bq/m³) indoor radon concentration. The estimated number of lung cancer deaths attributable to indoor radon exposure is about 3000 (1000; 5000), which corresponds to about 10% of all lung cancer deaths each year in France. About 33% of lung cancer deaths attributable to radon are due to exposure levels above 100 Bq/m³. Considering the combined effect of tobacco and radon, the study shows that 75% of estimated radon-attributable lung cancer deaths occur among current smokers, 20% among ex-smokers and 5% among never-smokers. It is concluded that the results of this study, which are based on precise estimates of indoor radon concentrations at finest geographical scale, can serve as a basis for defining French policy against radon risk.     

Radon, smoking and lung cancer risk: results of a joint analysis of three European case-control studies among uranium miners

A combined analysis of three case-control studies nested in three European uranium miner cohorts was performed to study the joint effects of radon exposure and smoking on lung cancer death risk. Occupational history and exposure data were available from the cohorts. Smoking information was reconstructed using self-administered questionnaires and occupational medical archives. Linear excess relative risk models adjusted for smoking were used to estimate the lung cancer risk associated with radon exposure. The study includes 1046 lung cancer cases and 2492 controls with detailed radon exposure data and smoking status. The ERR/WLM adjusted for smoking is equal to 0.008 (95% CI: 0.004-0.014). Time since exposure is shown to be a major modifier of the relationship between radon exposure and lung cancer risk. Fitting geometric mixture models yielded arguments in favor of a sub-multiplicative interaction between radon and smoking. This combined study is the largest case-control study to investigate the joint effects of radon and smoking on lung cancer risk among miners. The results confirm that the lung carcinogenic effect of radon persists even when smoking is adjusted for, with arguments in favor of a sub-multiplicative interaction between radon and smoking.     

Increased risk of cancer in radon-exposed miners with elevated frequency of chromosomal aberrations

In spite of the extensive use of cytogenetic analysis of human peripheral blood lymphocytes in the biomonitoring of exposure to various mutagens and carcinogens, the long-term effects of an increased frequency of chromosomal aberrations in individuals are still uncertain. Few epidemiologic studies have addressed this issue, and a moderate risk of cancer in individuals with an elevated frequency of chromosomal aberrations has been observed.In the present study, we analyzed data on 1323 cytogenetic assays and 225 subjects examined because of occupational exposures to radon (range of exposure from 1.7 to 662.3 working level month (WLM)). Seventy-five subjects were non-smokers. We found 36 cases of cancer in this cohort.Chromatid breaks were the most frequently observed type of aberrations (mean frequency 1.2 per 100 cells), which statistically significantly correlated with radon exposure (Spearman's correlation coefficient R=0.22, P<0.001). Also, the frequency of aberrant cells (median of 2.5%) correlated with radon exposure (Spearman's correlation coefficient R=0.16, P<0.02). Smoking and silicosis were not associated with results of cytogenetic analyses.The Cox regression models, which accounted for the age at time of first cytogenetic assay, radon exposure, and smoking showed strong and statistically significant associations between cancer incidence and frequency of chromatid breaks and frequency of aberrant cells, respectively. A 1% increase in the frequency of aberrant cells was paralleled by a 62% increase in risk of cancer (P<0.000). An increase in frequency of chromatid breaks by 1 per 100 cells was followed by a 99% increase in risk of cancer (P<0.000). We obtained similar results when we analyzed the incidence of lung cancer and the incidence other than lung cancer separately.Contrary to frequency of chromatid breaks and frequency of aberrant cells, the frequency of chromatid exchanges, and chromosome-type aberrations were not predictive of cancer.     

Biologically based analysis of the data for the Colorado uranium miners cohort: age, dose and dose-rate effects.

This study is a comprehensive analysis of the latest follow-up of the Colorado uranium miners cohort using the two-stage clonal expansion model with particular emphasis on effects related to age and exposure. The model provides a framework in which the hazard function for lung cancer mortality incorporates detailed information on exposure to radon and radon progeny from hard rock and uranium mining together with information on cigarette smoking. Even though the effect of smoking on lung cancer risk is explicitly modeled, a significant birth cohort effect is found which shows a linear increase in the baseline lung cancer risk with birth year of the miners in the cohort. The analysis based on the two-stage clonal expansion model suggests that exposure to radon affects both the rate of initiation of intermediate cells in the pathway to cancer and the rate of proliferation of intermediate cells. However, in contrast to the promotional effect of radon, which is highly significant, the effect of radon on the rate of initiation is found to be not significant. The model is also used to study the inverse dose-rate effect. This effect is evident for radon exposures typical for mines but is predicted to be attenuated, and for longer exposures even reversed, for the more protracted and lower radon exposures in homes. The model also predicts the drop in risk with time after exposure ceases. For residential exposures, lung cancer risks are compared with the estimates from the BEIR VI report. While the risk estimates are in agreement with those derived from residential studies, they are about two- to fourfold lower than those reported in the BEIR VI report.     

Does breathing other people's tobacco smoke cause lung cancer?

The available epidemiological studies of lung cancer and exposure to other people''s tobacco smoke, in which exposure was assessed by whether or not a person classified as a non-smoker lived with a smoker, were identified and the results combined. There were 10 case-control studies and three prospective studies. Overall, there was a highly significant 35% increase in the risk of lung cancer among non-smokers living with smokers compared with non-smokers living with non-smokers (relative risk 1.35, 95% confidence interval 1.19 to 1.54). Part of this increase was almost certainly caused by the misclassification of some smokers as non-smokers. As smokers, who are more likely to get lung cancer than non-smokers, tend to live with smokers this misclassification probably exaggerated the estimated increase in risk. Adjustment for this error reduced the estimate to 30% (relative risk 1.30), but as people who live with non-smokers may still be exposed to other people''s smoke this estimate was revised again to allow for the fact that a truly unexposed reference group was not used. The increase in risk among non-smokers living with smokers compared with a completely unexposed group was thus estimated as 53% (relative risk of 1.53). This analysis, and the fact that non-smokers breathe environmental tobacco smoke, which contains carcinogens, into their lungs and that the generally accepted view is that there is no safe threshold for the effect of carcinogens, leads to the conclusion that breathing other people''s tobacco smoke is a cause of lung cancer. About a third of the cases of lung cancer in non-smokers who live with smokers, and about a quarter of the cases in non-smokers in general, may be attributed to such exposure.     

Smoking Habits of Men Employed in Industry,and Mortality

A study of the relation between smoking habits and lung cancer in male industrial workers over a period of three years has confirmed the earlier findings in doctors that the death-rate from lung cancer correlates closely with the number of cigarettes smoked. Of 54,460 men studied 68.7% were current cigarette smokers. The annual mortality rate from lung cancer was 0.33 per thousand in non-smokers and ex-smokers, and 1.2 per thousand for all cigarette smokers, and higher in heavy smokers.Heavy cigarette smokers who retained the cigarette in the mouth between puffs (“drooping” cigarette habit) had an annual mortality rate of 4.1 per thousand.The mortality from coronary thrombosis in smokers was nearly three times that in non-smokers. A mortality gradient with rising consumption of cigarettes was observed.Some correlation between smoking and cancer of other sites and from non-neoplastic lung disease was observed in older men, but no correlation was found with other cardiovascular diseases and cerebrovascular diseases.     

Lung cancer and indoor radon exposure in the north of Portugal--an ecological study

BackgroundIndoor radon exposure is a well documented environmental factor as a leading cause of lung cancer. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the risk of lung cancer and estimate the number of deaths due to indoor radon exposure in the north of Portugal, between 1995 and 2004. Methods: The sixth Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation Committee (BEIR VI) preferred models were applied to estimate the risk of developing lung cancer induced by indoor radon exposure, by age and level of exposure, and calculated the number of lung cancer deaths attributable to this exposure. Lung cancer mortality data were granted by the North Regional Health Administration and indoor radon concentrations resulted from a national survey conducted by the Portuguese Environmental Agency. The smoking habit was accounted with two methods. A submultiplicative interaction between smoking and indoor radon exposure was considered. Results: Depending on the model applied and the method used to account for the smoking habit, the estimated number of lung cancer deaths attributed to indoor radon exposure, in northern Portugal, ranges from 1565 to 2406, for the period between 1995 and 2004. This indicates that of the 8514 lung cancer deaths observed, from 18 to 28% could be associated with indoor radon exposure.ConclusionsThis was the first study realized in Portugal on the impact of indoor radon exposure in lung cancer mortality. The application of the BEIR VI models led to a high number of lung cancer deaths due to indoor radon exposure.     

Lung cancer incidence attributable to residential radon exposure in Finland

This study aimed to estimate (1) the number of avoidable lung cancer cases attributable to residential radon in Finland in 2017, separately by age, sex, dwelling type and smoking status, (2) the impact of residential radon alone and the joint effect of residential radon and smoking on the number of lung cancers and (3) the potential decrease in the number of radon-attributable lung cancers if radon concentrations exceeding specified action levels (100, 200 and 300 Bq m^?3) would have been mitigated to those levels. Population-based surveys of radon concentrations and smoking patterns were used. Observed radon levels were contrasted with 25 Bq m^?3 representing a realistic minimum level of exposure. Lung cancer risk estimates for radon and smoking were derived from literature. Lastly, the uncertainty due to the estimation of exposure and risk was quantified using a computationally derived uncertainty interval. At least 3% and at most 8% of all lung cancers were estimated as being attributable to residential radon. For small cell carcinoma, the proportion of cases attributable to radon was 8–13%. Among smokers, the majority of the radon-related cases were attributable to the joint effect of radon and smoking. Reduction of radon exposure to 100 Bq m^?3 action level would eliminate approximately 30% of radon-attributable cases. Estimates were low compared with the literature, given the (relatively high) radon levels in Finland. This was mainly due to the lower radon levels and higher smoking prevalence in flats than in houses and a more realistic point of comparison, factors which have been ignored in previous studies. The results can guide actions in radon protection and in prevention of lung cancers.

     

Models for the analysis of radon-exposed populations

Radon-222 is a radioactive decay product of radium-226 and uranium-238, which are found throughout the crust of the earth. Studies of underground miners clearly show that exposure to radon and its decay products increases the risk of developing lung cancer. Data on standardized mortality ratios from eight cohort studies indicate that the radon-lung cancer relationship is statistically homogeneous, even though cohorts are from different types of mines and from different countries. Regression methods for cohort data based on a Poisson probability model permit a thorough consideration of risk patterns. In this report, we review these methods, wherein the disease rate in each cell of a multi-way table is modeled as a function of the cross-classifying variables. The National Academy of Sciences' Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation uses the Poisson regression approach to develop a model for age-specific lung cancer risk which depends on cumulative exposure, age at risk, and time since exposure. This model is reviewed and its implications discussed. The most important determinant of lung cancer is cigarette smoking. This paper discusses relative risk models for analysis of joint exposure to radon and tobacco products. The review of available studies suggests that the joint relationship of radon and smoking with lung cancer is consistent with a multiplicative model, but a submultiplicative relationship is most likely. An additive model is rejected.     

Chromosome 15q25 (CHRNA3-CHRNB4) Variation Indirectly Impacts Lung Cancer Risk in Chinese Males

Introduction

Recently, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in Caucasian populations have identified an association between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the CHRNA5-A3-B4 nicotinic acetylcholine receptor subunit gene cluster on chromosome 15q25, lung cancer risk and smoking behaviors. However, these SNPs are rare in Asians, and there is currently no consensus on whether SNPs in CHRNA5-A3-B4 have a direct or indirect carcinogenic effect through smoking behaviors on lung cancer risk. Though some studies confirmed rs6495308 polymorphisms to be associated with smoking behaviors and lung cancer, no research was conducted in China. Using a case-control study, we decided to investigate the associations between CHRNA3 rs6495308, CHRNB4 rs11072768, smoking behaviors and lung cancer risk, as well as explore whether the two SNPs have a direct or indirect carcinogenic effect on lung cancer.

Methods

A total of 1025 males were interviewed using a structured questionnaire (204 male lung cancer patients and 821 healthy men) to acquire socio-demographic status and smoking behaviors. Venous blood samples were collected to measure rs6495308 and rs11072768 gene polymorphisms. All subjects were divided into 3 groups: non-smokers, light smokers (1–15 cigarettes per day) and heavy smokers (>15 cigarettes per day).

Results

Compared to wild genotype, rs6495308 and rs11072768 variant genotypes reported smoking more cigarettes per day and a higher pack-years of smoking (P<0.05). More importantly, among smokers, both rs6495308 CT/TT and rs11072768 GT/GG had a higher risk of lung cancer compared to wild genotype without adjusting for potential confounding factors (OR = 1.36, 95%CI = 1.09–1.95; OR = 1.11, 95%CI = 1.07–1.58 respectively). Furthermore, heavy smokers with rs6495308 or rs11072768 variant genotypes have a positive interactive effect on lung cancer after adjustment for potential confounding factors (OR = 1.13, 95%CI = 1.01–3.09; OR = 1.09, 95%CI = 1.01–3.41 respectively). However, No significant associations were found between lung cancer risk and both rs6495308 and rs11072768 genotypes among non-smokers and smokers after adjusting for age, occupation, and education.

Conclusion

This study confirmed both rs6495308 and rs11072768 gene polymorphisms association with smoking behaviors and had an indirect link between gene polymorphisms and lung cancer risk.     

Non-smoking wives of heavy smokers have a higher risk of lung cancer: a study from Japan.

In a study in 29 health centre districts in Japan 91 540 non-smoking wives aged 40 and above were followed up for 14 years (1966-79), and standardised mortality rates for lung cancer were assessed according to the smoking habits of their husbands. Wives of heavy smokers were found to have a higher risk of developing lung cancer and a dose-response relation was observed. The relation between the husband''s smoking and the wife''s risk of developing lung cancer showed a similar pattern when analysed by age and occupation of the husband. The risk was particularly great in agricultural families when the husbands were aged 40-59 at enrolment. The husbands'' smoking habit did not affect their wives'' risk of dying from other disease such as stomach cancer, cervical cancer, and ischaemic heart disease. The risk of developing emphysema and asthma seemed to be higher in non-smoking wives of heavy smokers but the effect was not statistically significant. The husband''s drinking habit seemed to have no effect on any causes of death in their wives, including lung cancer. These results indicate the possible importance of passive or indirect smoking as one of the causal factors of lung cancer. They also appear to explain the long-standing riddle of why many women develop lung cancer although they themselves are non-smokers. These results also cast doubt on the practice of assessing the relative risk of developing lung cancer in smokers by comparing them with non-smokers.     

Modelling of carcinogenesis and low-dose hypersensitivity: an application to lung cancer incidence among atomic bomb survivors

Lung cancer incidence among the atomic bomb survivors from Hiroshima and Nagasaki was analysed with the two-step clonal expansion (TSCE) model of carcinogenesis. For the baseline incidence, a new set of model parameters is introduced, which can be determined with a higher precision than the parameter sets previously used. The effect of temporal changes in the smoking behaviour on the lung cancer incidence is modelled by allowing initiation, inactivation and division rates of intermediate cells to depend on the year of birth. The TSCE model is further developed by implementing low-dose hypersensitivity in the survival of lung epithelial cells. According to the model fit to the data, the acute gamma exposure of the atomic bomb survivors does not only result in the conventional initiating effect, but also in a promoting effect for lung cancer. Compared to the model in which radiation acts merely on initiation, the new model is in better agreement with the age-at-exposure dependence in the data, and it does not predict an unexpected increase of the excess relative risk (ERR) at 40 years after exposure. According to the new model, the ERR at low doses increases non-linearly with dose, especially during the first 10 years after exposure to older persons.     

Radiation and smoking effects on lung cancer incidence by histological types among atomic bomb survivors

While the risk of lung cancer associated separately with smoking and radiation exposure has been widely reported, it is not clear how smoking and radiation together contribute to the risk of specific lung cancer histological types. With individual smoking histories and radiation dose estimates, we characterized the joint effects of radiation and smoking on type-specific lung cancer rates among the Life Span Study cohort of Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Among 105,404 cohort subjects followed between 1958 and 1999, 1,803 first primary lung cancer incident cases were diagnosed and classified by histological type. Poisson regression methods were used to estimate excess relative risks under several interaction models. Adenocarcinoma (636 cases), squamous-cell carcinoma (330) and small-cell carcinoma (194) made up 90% of the cases with known histology. Both smoking and radiation exposure significantly increased the risk of each major lung cancer histological type. Smoking-associated excess relative risks were significantly larger for small-cell and squamous-cell carcinomas than for adenocarcinoma. The gender-averaged excess relative risks per 1 Gy of radiation (for never-smokers at age 70 after radiation exposure at age 30) were estimated as 1.49 (95% confidence interval 0.1-4.6) for small-cell carcinoma, 0.75 (0.3-1.3) for adenocarcinoma, and 0.27 (0-1.5) for squamous-cell carcinoma. Under a model allowing radiation effects to vary with levels of smoking, the nature of the joint effect of smoking and radiation showed a similar pattern for different histological types in which the radiation-associated excess relative risk tended to be larger for moderate smokers than for heavy smokers. However, in contrast to analyses of all lung cancers as a group, such complicated interactions did not describe the data significantly better than either simple additive or multiplicative interaction models for any of the type-specific analyses.     

The accumulated evidence on lung cancer and environmental tobacco smoke.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of lung cancer in lifelong non-smokers exposed to environmental tobacco smoke. DESIGN: Analysis of 37 published epidemiological studies of the risk of lung cancer (4626 cases) in non-smokers who did and did not live with a smoker. The risk estimate was compared with that from linear extrapolation of the risk in smokers using seven studies of biochemical markers of tobacco smoke intake. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Relative risk of lung cancer in lifelong non-smokers according to whether the spouse currently smoked or had never smoked. RESULTS: The excess risk of lung cancer was 24% (95% confidence interval 13% to 36%) in non-smokers who lived with a smoker (P < 0.001). Adjustment for the effects of bias (positive and negative) and dietary confounding had little overall effect; the adjusted excess risk was 26% (7% to 47%). The dose-response relation of the risk of lung cancer with both the number of cigarettes smoked by the spouse and the duration of exposure was significant. The excess risk derived by linear extrapolation from that in smokers was 19%, similar to the direct estimate of 26%. CONCLUSION: The epidemiological and biochemical evidence on exposure to environmental tobacco smoke, with the supporting evidence of tobacco specific carcinogens in the blood and urine of non-smokers exposed to environmental tobacco smoke, provides compelling confirmation that breathing other people''s tobacco smoke is a cause of lung cancer.     

Lung cancer risks of underground miners: cohort and case-control studies

All underground mines have higher radon levels than are found in surface air. Ventilation is the primary method of controlling radon levels. Fourteen cohort and seven case-control studies done on underground miners are reviewed; they include many types of ore. Only five of the studies deal with more than 100 lung cancer deaths. Variations in the attributable risk are given. Some generalizations can be drawn from these studies: the longer the follow-up, the greater is the attributable risk, even though the relative risk is reasonably constant. The induction-latent period is quite variable but is shortened by high exposure rates, by cigarette smoking, and by increasing age at start of mining. The predominant histological type of lung cancer among miners changed from small-cell undifferentiated for short follow-up time to epidermoid after long follow-up times. With short follow-up time, a multiplicative interaction between smoking and radiation was indicated, but, with long follow-up time, the two factors appear to be simply additive. This difference is probably due to the shortened latent period among cigarette smokers, not to synergism.     

Deaths in Canada from lung cancer due to involuntary smoking.

Recently published evidence indicates that involuntary smoking causes an increased risk of lung cancer among nonsmokers. Information was compiled on the proportion of people who had never smoked among victims of lung cancer, the risk of lung cancer for nonsmokers married to smokers and the prevalence of such exposure. On the basis of these data we estimate that 50 to 60 of the deaths from lung cancer in Canada in 1985 among people who had never smoked were caused by spousal smoking; about 90% occurred in women. The total number of deaths from lung cancer attributable to exposure to tobacco smoke from spouses and other sources (mainly the workplace) was derived by applying estimated age- and sex-specific rates of death from lung cancer attributable to such exposure to the population of Canadians who have never smoked; about 330 deaths from lung cancer annually are attributable to such exposure.