Factors predicting patient use of the emergency department: a retrospective cohort study

Background:

Many studies have shown the tendency for people without a regular care provider or primary physician to make greater use of emergency departments. We sought to determine the effects of three aspects of care provided by primary physicians (physician specialty, continuity of care and comprehensiveness of care) on their patients’ use of the emergency department.

Methods:

Using provincial administrative databases, we created a cohort of 367 315 adults aged 18 years and older. Participants were residents of urban areas of Quebec. Affiliation with a primary physician, the specialty of this physician (i.e., family physician v. specialist), continuity of care (as measured using the Usual Provider Continuity index) and comprehensiveness of care (i.e., number of complete annual examinations) were measured among participants (n = 311 701) who had visited a physician three or more times during a two-year baseline period. We used multivariable negative binomial regression to investigate the relationships between measures of care and the number of visits to emergency departments during a 12-month follow-up period.

Results:

Among participants under 65 years of age, emergency department use was higher for those not affiliated than for those affiliated with a family physician (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05–1.16) or a specialist (IRR 1.10, 95% CI 1.04–1.17). Among patients aged 65 years and older, having a specialist primary physician, as opposed to a family physician, predicted increased use of the emergency department (IRR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09–1.17). Greater continuity of care with a family physician predicted less use of the emergency department only among participants who made 25 or more visits to a physician during the baseline period. Greater continuity of care with a specialist predicted less use of the emergency department overall, particularly among participants with intermediate numbers of multimorbidities and admissions to hospital. Greater comprehensiveness of care by family physicians predicted less use of the emergency department.

Interpretation:

Efforts to increase the proportion of adults affiliated with a family physician should target older adults, people who visit physicians more frequently and people with multiple comorbidities and admissions to hospital.Reforming primary care in Canada has been stimulated in part by increased crowding of emergency departments and evidence that their use, particularly for nonurgent care, may be related to inadequate primary care in the community.^1,2 Restructuring efforts, such as encouraging family physicians to work in multidisciplinary group practices with 24-hour access, are challenged by a relative shortage of family physicians.³ These issues are of particular importance in Quebec; despite relatively high numbers of family physicians per capita, in comparison with other provinces, residents of Quebec have the lowest rates of affiliation with a family physician and have one of the highest rates of seeing specialists.^4,5 In addition, residents of Quebec have among the highest rates of visits to emergency departments in international comparative studies.^6–8Research is needed into the effect that affiliation with a specialist rather than a family physician has on patients’ use of the emergency department, as is research into the continuity and comprehensiveness of care provided by the primary physician, regardless of specialty.Many studies have shown the tendency for people without a regular care provider to use the emergency department more often than people who have a primary physician.^1,9,10 Greater continuity of care with a primary physician has also been associated with fewer visits to the emergency department, but much of this research is cross-sectional, making causal interpretation difficult.¹¹ Furthermore, the distinction between continuity with a family physician versus a specialist primary physician has not been made, although one American study reported that having a specialist primary physician was associated with increased use of emergency departments.⁹We sought to determine whether certain factors predicted patients’ subsequent use of emergency departments, such as the specialty of their primary physician, the continuity of care with that physician and the comprehensiveness of care provided by that physician. To determine whether certain subgroups of the population may derive greater benefit from a particular type of care, we examined the potentially modifying effects of demographic factors, health status and previous use of health services. We restricted our study to residents of urban areas of Quebec for three reasons: rural residents visit the emergency department for primary care more often than residents of urban areas;¹² most specialist care is provided in urban areas; and primary care services in rural areas are more likely to be provided by salaried physicians, whose information is not available in the billing database.     

Risk of infection following a visit to the emergency department: a cohort study

Background:

The risk of infection following a visit to the emergency department is unknown. We explored this risk among elderly residents of long-term care facilities.

Methods:

We compared the rates of new respiratory and gastrointestinal infections among elderly residents aged 65 years and older of 22 long-term care facilities. We used standardized surveillance definitions. For each resident who visited the emergency department during the study period, we randomly selected two residents who did not visit the emergency department and matched them by facility unit, age and sex. We calculated the rates and proportions of new infections, and we used conditional logistic regression to adjust for potential confounding variables.

Results:

In total, we included 1269 residents of long-term care facilities, including 424 who visited the emergency department during the study. The baseline characteristics of residents who did or did not visit the emergency department were similar, except for underlying health status (visited the emergency department: mean Charlson Comorbidity Index 6.1, standard deviation [SD] 2.5; did not visit the emergency department: mean Charlson Comorbidity index 5.5, SD 2.7; p < 0.001) and the proportion who had visitors (visited the emergency department: 46.9%; did not visit the emergency department: 39.2%; p = 0.01). Overall, 21 (5.0%) residents who visited the emergency department and 17 (2.0%) who did not visit the emergency department acquired new infections. The incidence of new infections was 8.3/1000 patient-days among those who visited the emergency department and 3.4/1000 patient-days among those who did not visit the emergency department. The adjusted odds ratio for the risk of infection following a visit to the emergency department was 3.9 (95% confidence interval 1.4–10.8).

Interpretation:

A visit to the emergency department was associated with more than a threefold increased risk of acute infection among elderly people. Additional precautions should be considered for residents following a visit to the emergency department.Infections associated with health care are an important health risk. A recent survey by the World Health Organization reported that 8.7% of patients in hospital developed such infections.^1,2 The third leading cause of death in the United States is health care–associated deaths, with over 100 000 people dying from infections associated with health care each year.³ In Canada, a point-prevalence survey found that 11.6% of adults in hospital experience a health care–associated infection.⁴Little attention has been paid to infections acquired in other health care settings. Visiting an emergency department has been identified as a risk for disease during outbreaks of measles^5,6 and SARS,^7,8 but little is known about the potential risk of endemic infection from exposure in this setting. A visit to the emergency department differs from a stay in hospital: exposure and duration of contact with other patients is shorter, but the number and density of patients with acute illness with whom there could be contact is higher.Elderly residents of long-term care facilities are likely to be at the greatest risk of morbidity and mortality from communicable diseases acquired in the emergency department. When residents are transferred to the emergency department for assessment, they are likely to have longer stays and to be cared for in multibed observation areas and corridors.⁹ If they acquire an infection while in the emergency department, these residents may be the source of an outbreak upon return to their facility; this can lead to increases in workload and costs. A Canadian study estimated the cost of an influenza outbreak to be over $6000 per 30-day period, with an estimated incidence of death of 0.75/100 residents during the same period.¹⁰ In this study, we explored the risk of acute respiratory and gastrointestinal infection associated with a visit to the emergency department among elderly residents of long-term care facilities.     

First Nations status and emergency department triage scores in Alberta: a retrospective cohort study

Background:Previous studies have found that race is associated with emergency department triage scores, raising concerns about potential health care inequity. As part of a project on quality of care for First Nations people in Alberta, we sought to understand the relation between First Nations status and triage scores.Methods:We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of health administrative data from April 2012 to March 2017 to evaluate acuity of triage scores, categorized as a binary outcome of higher or lower acuity score. We developed multivariable multilevel logistic mixed-effects regression models using the levels of emergency department visit, patient (for patients with multiple visits) and facility. We further evaluated the triage of visits related to 5 disease categories and 5 specific diagnoses to better compare triage outcomes of First Nations and non–First Nations patients.Results:First Nations status was associated with lower odds of receiving higher acuity triage scores (odds ratio [OR] 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92–0.94) compared with non–First Nations patients in adjusted models. First Nations patients had lower odds of acute triage for all 5 disease categories and for 3 of 5 diagnoses, including long bone fractures (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.76–0.88), acute upper respiratory infection (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.84–0.98) and anxiety disorder (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.60–0.74).Interpretation:First Nations status was associated with lower odds of higher acuity triage scores across a number of conditions and diagnoses. This may reflect systemic racism, stereotyping and potentially other factors that affected triage assessments.

Health outcomes are markedly worse for First Nations than non–First Nations people. Although this is largely because of inequities in the social determinants of health,^1–4 inequities in the provision of health care also exist.^5,6 Emergency departments serve as a point of accessible health care. Status First Nations patients make up 4.8% of unique patients and 9.4% of emergency visits in Alberta,⁷ and Canadian studies describe First Nations patients’ experiences with racism when seeking emergency care.^8,9Evaluating triage contributes empirically to understanding the health care of First Nations patients insofar as triage is a quantifiable, intermediate process by which systemic racism¹⁰ may influence patient outcomes. The Canadian Triage Acuity Scale¹¹ is a 5-level scale used to classify the severity of patient symptoms. Triage nurses use a brief assessment, medical history, and presenting signs and symptoms to assign each patient a triage score that determines the priority in which the patient should be seen by a provider. Therefore, accurate triage is important for patient health outcomes.¹² In practice, triage is a social interaction where local practice, biases, stereotypes and communication barriers come into play. Studies have found that women receive less acute triage scores than men,^13,14 and that racial minority^13,15–17 and Indigenous^18–20 patients receive less acute triage scores than white or non-Indigenous patients. Indeed, Indigenous patients in Canada have described a perception “of social triaging in the [emergency department], whereby decisions about who is seen first seemed to them [to be] based less on triaged clinical priorities but on the social positioning of the patient.”²¹ Differential triage scores for minority populations raise health equity concerns.As part of a larger mixed-methods project evaluating the quality of emergency care for First Nations people in Alberta, we sought to evaluate quantitative differences in emergency visit characteristics and outcomes of First Nations and non–First Nations people in Alberta. Specifically, we aimed to estimate the relation between First Nations status and acuity of triage, and to evaluate whether predictors of acuity differ by First Nations status.     

Post-acute health care burden after SARS-CoV-2 infection: a retrospective cohort study

Background:The post-acute burden of health care use after SARS-CoV-2 infection is unknown. We sought to quantify the post-acute burden of health care use after SARS-CoV-2 infection among community-dwelling adults in Ontario by comparing those with positive and negative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test results for SARS-CoV-2 infection.Methods:We conducted a retrospective cohort study involving community-dwelling adults in Ontario who had a PCR test between Jan. 1, 2020, and Mar. 31, 2021. Follow-up began 56 days after PCR testing. We matched people 1:1 on a comprehensive propensity score. We compared per-person-year rates for health care encounters at the mean and 99th percentiles, and compared counts using negative binomial models, stratified by sex.Results:Among 531 702 matched people, mean age was 44 (standard deviation [SD] 17) years and 51% were female. Females who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 had a mean of 1.98 (95% CI 1.63 to 2.29) more health care encounters overall per-person-year than those who had a negative test result, with 0.31 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.56) more home care encounters to 0.81 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.93) more long-term care days. At the 99th percentile per-person-year, females who tested positive had 6.48 more days of hospital admission and 28.37 more home care encounters. Males who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 had 0.66 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.99) more overall health care encounters per-person-year than those who tested negative, with 0.14 (95% CI 0.06 to 0.21) more outpatient encounters and 0.48 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.60) long-term care days, and 0.43 (95% CI −0.67 to −0.21) fewer home care encounters. At the 99th percentile, they had 8.69 more days in hospital per-person-year, with fewer home care (−27.31) and outpatient (−0.87) encounters.Interpretation:We found significantly higher rates of health care use after a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test in an analysis that matched test-positive with test-negative people. Stakeholders can use these findings to prepare for health care demand associated with post-COVID-19 condition (long COVID).

The public health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are difficult to overstate.¹ More than 600 million SARS-CoV-2 infections and 6.5 million deaths have been reported worldwide as of September 2022,² which are likely gross undercounts as many infections go undetected.³Long-term morbidity can be caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection.^4–9 In the first pandedmic wave, as many as 27% of people admitted to hospital died or were readmitted within 60 days, and as many as 70% of people who were not admitted to hospital reported at least 1 symptom 4 months after infection.^10,11 By the World Health Organization (WHO) definition, about 10%–20% of those infected acquire a post-COVID-19 condition (long COVID).^12,13Analysis of 10 prospective surveys and the medical records of 1.1 million patients with COVID-19 diagnosis codes before the emergence of the Omicron variant showed similar findings: 7.8%–17% had symptoms 12 weeks after self-reported COVID-19, with 1.2%–4.8% reporting debilitating symptoms.¹⁴ Estimates of long COVID vary by methodology (e.g., definitions of initial infection and timing of symptoms, timing of data collection), but risk is thought to be influenced by infection severity, type of variant, patient characteristics, vaccination¹⁵ and, potentially, previous infection.¹⁶ Because each new SARS-CoV-2 infection carries some risk of long COVID, everyone remains at risk for developing the condition.Health care funders, policy-makers and clinicians need a clear understanding of the impact of long COVID on use of health care resources to allocate resources equitably now and plan for future needs.¹⁷ We sought to quantify the post-acute burden of health care use after SARS-CoV-2 infection among community-dwelling adults in Ontario.     

Fenoldopam use in a burn intensive care unit: a retrospective study

Background

We sought to evaluate agreement between a new and widely implemented method of temperature measurement in critical care, temporal artery thermometry and an established method of core temperature measurement, bladder thermometry as performed in clinical practice.

Methods

Temperatures were simultaneously recorded hourly (n = 736 observations) using both devices as part of routine clinical monitoring in 14 critically ill adult patients with temperatures ranging ≥1°C prior to consent.

Results

The mean difference between temporal artery and bladder temperatures measured was -0.44°C (95% confidence interval, -0.47°C to -0.41°C), with temporal artery readings lower than bladder temperatures. Agreement between the two devices was greatest for normothermia (36.0°C to < 38.3°C) (mean difference -0.35°C [95% confidence interval, -0.37°C to -0.33°C]). The temporal artery thermometer recorded higher temperatures during hypothermia (< 36°C) (mean difference 0.66°C [95% confidence interval, 0.53°C to 0.79°C]) and lower temperatures during hyperthermia (≥38.3°C) (mean difference -0.90°C [95% confidence interval, -0.99°C to -0.81°C]). The sensitivity for detecting fever (core temperature ≥38.3°C) using the temporal artery thermometer was 0.26 (95% confidence interval, 0.20 to 0.33), and the specificity was 0.99 (95% confidence interval, 0.98 to 0.99). The positive likelihood ratio for fever was 24.6 (95% confidence interval, 10.7 to 56.8); the negative likelihood ratio was 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.68 to 0.82).

Conclusions

Temporal artery thermometry produces somewhat surprising disagreement with an established method of core temperature measurement and should not to be used in situations where body temperature needs to be measured with accuracy.     

Following 411 Cochrane protocols to completion: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Cochrane reviews are regarded as being scientifically rigorous and are increasingly used by a variety of stakeholders. However, factors predicting the publication of Cochrane reviews have never been reported. This is important because if a higher proportion of Cochrane protocols with certain characteristics (e.g., funding) are being published, this may lead to inaccurate decisions. We examined the frequency of published and unpublished Cochrane reviews and protocol factors that predict the publication of Cochrane reviews.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Retrospective cohort study of Cochrane protocols published in 2000 (Issues 2 to 4) and 2001 (Issue 1). The publication status of these reviews was followed up to Issue 1, 2008 in The Cochrane Library. Survival analysis of the time from protocol publication to the first review publication and protocol factors predicting the time to publication was conducted. There were 411 new Cochrane protocols in the cohort. After excluding 39; 71/372 (19.1%) were unpublished and 301/372 (80.9%) were published as full Cochrane reviews at the time of study analysis (January 2008). The median time to publication was 2.4 years (range: 0.15 to 8.96). Multivariate analyses revealed that shorter time to publication was associated with the review subsequently being updated (hazard ratio, HR: 1.80 [95% confidence interval, CI: 1.39 to 2.33 years]) and longer time to publication was associated with the review having two published protocols, indicating changes to the review plan (HR: 0.33 [95% CI: 0.12 to 0.90 years]).

Conclusions/Significance

Only about 80% Cochrane protocols were published as full reviews after over 8 years of follow-up. The median time to publication was 2.4 years and some reviews took much longer. Strategies to decrease time to publication should be considered, such as streamlining the review process, increased support for authors when protocol amendments occur, and better infrastructure for updating Cochrane reviews.     

Interpretations of and management actions following ECGs in programmatic cardiovascular care in primary care: A retrospective dossier study

Netherlands Heart Journal - The usefulness of routine electrocardiograms (ECGs) in cardiovascular risk management (CVRM) and diabetes care is doubted. To assess the performance of general...     

Inflammatory ocular adverse events with the use of oral bisphosphonates: a retrospective cohort study

Background:

There have been several published reports of inflammatory ocular adverse events, mainly uveitis and scleritis, among patients taking oral bisphosphonates. We examined the risk of these adverse events in a pharmacoepidemiologic cohort study.

Methods:

We conducted a retrospective cohort study involving residents of British Columbia who had visited an ophthalmologist from 2000 to 2007. Within the cohort, we identified all people who were first-time users of oral bisphosphonates and who were followed to the first inflammatory ocular adverse event, death, termination of insurance or the end of the study period. We defined an inflammatory ocular adverse event as scleritis or uveitis. We used a Cox proportional hazard model to determine the adjusted rate ratios. As a sensitivity analysis, we performed a propensity-score–adjusted analysis.

Results:

The cohort comprised 934 147 people, including 10 827 first-time users of bisphosphonates and 923 320 nonusers. The incidence rate among first-time users was 29/10 000 person-years for uveitis and 63/10 000 person-years for scleritis. In contrast, the incidence among people who did not use oral bisphosphonates was 20/10 000 person-years for uveitis and 36/10 000 for scleritis (number needed to harm: 1100 and 370, respectively). First-time users had an elevated risk of uveitis (adjusted relative risk [RR] 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25–1.68) and scleritis (adjusted RR 1.51, 95% CI 1.34–1.68). The rate ratio for the propensity-score–adjusted analysis did not change the results (uveitis: RR 1.50, 95% CI 1.29–1.73; scleritis: RR 1.53, 95% CI 1.39–1.70).

Interpretation:

People using oral bisphosphonates for the first time may be at a higher risk of scleritis and uveitis compared to people with no bisphosphonate use. Patients taking bisphosphonates must be familiar with the signs and symptoms of these conditions, so that they can immediately seek assessment by an ophthalmologist.Oral bisphosphonates are the most frequently prescribed class of medications for the prevention of osteoporosis. Most literature about the safety of bisphosphonates has mainly focused on long-term adverse events, including atypical fractures,¹ atrial fibrillation,² and esophageal and colon cancer.³Uveitis and scleritis are ocular inflammatory diseases that are associated with major morbidity. Anterior uveitis is the most common type of uveitis with an estimated 11.4–100.0 cases/100 000 person-years.^4,5 Both diseases require immediate treatment to prevent further complications, which may include cataracts, glaucoma, macular edema and scleral perforation. Numerous case reports and case series have described an association between the use of oral bisphosphonates and anterior uveitis^6–8 and scleritis.^8,9 In most reported cases, severe eye pain was reported within days of taking an oral bisphosphonates, and the symptom resolved after stopping the agent.^6,9 Only one large epidemiologic study has examined the association between the use of bisphosphonates and ocular inflammatory diseases.¹⁰ This study did not find an association, but it was limited by a small number of events and a lack of power. Thus, the association between uveitis or scleritis and the use of oral bisphosphonates is not fully known. Given that early intervention may prevent complications, we performed a pharmacoepidemiologic study to assess the true risk of these potentially serious conditions.     

Interpretations of and management actions following electrocardiograms in symptomatic patients in primary care: a retrospective dossier study

Background

The electrocardiogram (ECG) has become a popular tool in primary care. The clinical value of the ECG depends on the appropriateness of the indication and the interpretation skills of the general practitioner (GP).

Objectives

To describe the use of electrocardiography in primary care and to assess the performance of GPs in interpreting ECGs and making subsequent management decisions.

Methods

Three hundred ECGs, recorded during daily practice in symptomatic patients by 14 GPs who regularly perform electrocardiography, were selected. Corresponding data of the indications, interpretations and subsequent management actions were extracted from the associated medical records. A panel consisting of an expert GP and a cardiologist reviewed the ECGs and specified their agreement with the findings and actions of the study GPs.

Results

The most common indications were suspicion of a rhythm abnormality (43.7%), ischaemic heart disease (42.7%) and patient reassurance (14.3%). The study GPs interpreted 53.3% of the ECGs as showing no (new or acute) abnormality, whereas supraventricular rhythm disorders (12.3%), conduction disorders (7.7%) and repolarisation disorders (7.0%) were the most frequently reported pathological findings. Overall, the expert panel disagreed with the interpretations of the study GPs in 16.2% of cases, and with the GPs’ management actions in 11.7%. Learning goals for GPs performing electrocardiography could be formulated for acute coronary syndrome, rhythm disorders, pulmonary embolism, reassurance, left ventricular hypertrophy and premature ventricular complexes.

Conclusion

GPs who feel competent in electrocardiography performed well in the opinion of the expert panel. We formulated various learning objectives for GPs performing electrocardiography.

     

All-cause and cause-specific mortality during and following incarceration in Brazil: A retrospective cohort study

BackgroundMortality during and after incarceration is poorly understood in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The need to address this knowledge gap is especially urgent in South America, which has the fastest growing prison population in the world. In Brazil, insufficient data have precluded our understanding of all-cause and cause-specific mortality during and after incarceration.Methods and findingsWe linked incarceration and mortality databases for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul to obtain a retrospective cohort of 114,751 individuals with recent incarceration. Between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2018, we identified 3,127 deaths of individuals with recent incarceration (705 in detention and 2,422 following release). We analyzed age-standardized, all-cause, and cause-specific mortality rates among individuals detained in different facility types and following release, compared to non-incarcerated residents. We additionally modeled mortality rates over time during and after incarceration for all causes of death, violence, or suicide. Deaths in custody were 2.2 times the number reported by the national prison administration (n = 317). Incarcerated men and boys experienced elevated mortality, compared with the non-incarcerated population, due to increased risk of death from violence, suicide, and communicable diseases, with the highest standardized incidence rate ratio (IRR) in semi-open prisons (2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.0 to 2.8), police stations (3.1; 95% CI: 2.5 to 3.9), and youth detention (8.1; 95% CI: 5.9 to 10.8). Incarcerated women experienced increased mortality from suicide (IRR = 6.0, 95% CI: 1.2 to 17.7) and communicable diseases (IRR = 2.5, 95% CI: 1.1 to 5.0). Following release from prison, mortality was markedly elevated for men (IRR = 3.0; 95% CI: 2.8 to 3.1) and women (IRR = 2.4; 95% CI: 2.1 to 2.9). The risk of violent death and suicide was highest immediately post-release and declined over time; however, all-cause mortality remained elevated 8 years post-release. The limitations of this study include inability to establish causality, uncertain reliability of data during incarceration, and underestimation of mortality rates due to imperfect database linkage.ConclusionsIncarcerated individuals in Brazil experienced increased mortality from violence, suicide, and communicable diseases. Mortality was heightened following release for all leading causes of death, with particularly high risk of early violent death and elevated all-cause mortality up to 8 years post-release. These disparities may have been underrecognized in Brazil due to underreporting and insufficient data.

In a retrospective cohort study, Yiran E Liu and colleagues investigate all-cause and cause-specific mortality during and following incarceration in Brazil.     

Mortality among patients with frequent emergency department use for alcohol-related reasons in Ontario: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND:Little is known about the risk of death among people who visit emergency departments frequently for alcohol-related reasons, including whether mortality risk increases with increasing frequency of visits. Our primary objective was to describe the sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of this high-risk population and examine their 1-year overall mortality, premature mortality and cause of death as a function of emergency department visit frequency in Ontario, Canada.METHODS:We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using linked health administrative data (Jan. 1, 2010, to Dec. 31, 2016) in Ontario for people aged 16–105 years who made at least 2 emergency department visits for mental or behavioural disorders due to alcohol within 1 year. We subdivided the cohort based on visit frequency (2, 3 or 4, or ≥ 5). The primary outcome was 1-year mortality, adjusted for age, sex, income, rural residence and presence of comorbidities. We examined premature mortality using years of potential life lost (YPLL).RESULTS:Of the 25 813 people included in the cohort, 17 020 (65.9%) had 2 emergency department visits within 1 year, 5704 (22.1%) had 3 or 4 visits, and 3089 (12.0%) had 5 or more visits. Males, people aged 45–64 years, and those living in urban centres and lower-income neighbourhoods were more likely to have 3 or 4 visits, or 5 or more visits. The all-cause 1-year mortality rate was 5.4% overall, ranging from 4.7% among patients with 2 visits to 8.8% among those with 5 or more visits. Death due to external causes (e.g., suicide, accidents) was most common. The adjusted mortality rate was 38% higher for patients with 5 or more visits than for those with 2 visits (adjusted hazard ratio 1.38, 95% confidence interval 1.19–1.59). Among 25 298 people aged 16–74 years, this represented 30 607 YPLL.INTERPRETATION:We observed a high mortality rate among relatively young, mostly urban, lower-income people with frequent emergency department visits for alcohol-related reasons. These visits are opportunities for intervention in a high-risk population to reduce a substantial mortality burden.

Alcohol is a leading driver of morbidity and mortality worldwide.¹ An estimated 3 million deaths in 2016 — 5% of all global deaths — were attributable to alcohol consumption.² The 2016 Global Burden of Disease Study showed that alcohol was the single greatest risk factor for ill health worldwide among people aged 15–49 years.³ In Canada, hospital admissions for alcohol-attributable conditions out-number those for myocardial infarction.⁴ Alcohol-related harms cost Canadians about $14.6 billion annually, with $3.3 billion in health care costs.⁵In addition to the societal impact of mental and behavioural disorders due to alcohol (henceforth referred to as alcohol-related) — mainly acute intoxication and withdrawal — these disorders are common reasons for emergency department visits.^6,7 Data from the United States and Canada, furthermore, suggest that alcohol-related emergency department visits have increased in recent years.^8,9 For example, a study in Ontario showed that, between 2003 and 2016, the age-standardized rates of alcohol-attributable emergency department visits increased by 86.5% in women and 53.2% in men.⁸ People who visit emergency departments frequently for alcohol-related reasons have high levels of comorbidity and social disadvantage,^10,11 and represent a readily identifiable patient population for whom interventions to address unmet social and health care needs could be developed.^12–14 A systematic review suggested that screening and brief intervention for alcohol-related problems in the emergency department is a promising approach for reducing problematic alcohol consumption.¹³Despite this, little is known about the risk of death, a key outcome for health system performance, among people who use emergency departments frequently for alcohol-related reasons, including whether mortality risk increases with increasing frequency of visits. To address this gap, our primary objective was to describe the sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of this high-risk population and examine their 1-year overall mortality, premature mortality and cause of death as a function of emergency department visit frequency in Ontario, the most populous Canadian province.¹⁵     

Mortality in young offenders: retrospective cohort study

Objectives To estimate overall and cause specific standardised mortality ratios in young offenders.Design Comparison of mortality data in cohort of young offenders.Settings State of Victoria, Australia.Subjects Cohort of young offenders aged 10-20 years with a first custodial sentence from 1 January 1988 to 31 December 1999.Main outcome measures Deaths ascertained by matching with the national death index, a database containing records of all deaths in Australia since 1980. Death rates in the reference Victorian population used to calculate standardised mortality ratios.Results The offender cohort comprised 2621 men and 228 women with 11 333 person years of observation. The median age of first detention was 17.9 years for men and 18.4 years for women. Median follow up was 3.3 years for men and 1.4 years for women. Overall standardised mortality ratio adjusted for age (expressed as a ratio) was 9.4 (95% confidence interval 7.4 to 11.9) for men and 41.3 (20.2 to 84.7) for women. Cause specific standardised mortality ratios for men were 25.7 (17.9 to 36.9) for drug related causes, 9.2 (5.8 to 15) for suicide, and 5.7 (3.6 to 9.2) for non-intentional injury. A quarter of drug related deaths in men aged 15-19 years were in offenders.Conclusions Social policies for young offenders should address both the prevalent drug and mental health problems as well the high levels of social disadvantage.     

Fracture risk among First Nations people: a retrospective matched cohort study

Background

Canadian First Nations people have unique cultural, socioeconomic and health-related factors that may affect fracture rates. We sought to determine the overall and site-specific fracture rates of First Nations people compared with non-First Nations people.

Methods

We studied fracture rates among First Nations people aged 20 years and older (n = 32 692) using the Manitoba administrative health database (1987–1999). We used federal and provincial sources to identify ethnicity, and we randomly matched each First Nations person with 3 people of the same sex and year of birth who did not meet this definition of First Nations ethnicity (n = 98 076). We used a provincial database of hospital separations and physician billing claims to calculate standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each fracture type based on a 5-year age strata.

Results

First Nations people had significantly higher rates of any fracture (age- and sex-adjusted SIR 2.23, 95% CI 2.18–2.29). Hip fractures (SIR 1.88, 95% CI 1.61–2.14), wrist fractures (SIR 3.01, 95% CI 2.63–3.42) and spine fractures (SIR 1.93, 95% CI 1.79–2.20) occurred predominantly in older people and women. In contrast, craniofacial fractures (SIR 5.07, 95% CI 4.74–5.42) were predominant in men and younger adults.

Interpretation

First Nations people are a previously unidentified group at high risk for fracture.Most of the epidemiologic data describing fractures have been derived from white populations,¹ although it is known that there is ethnic variation in the epidemiology of fractures.^2,3,4 Canadian First Nations people are known to suffer from a heavy burden of medical and social problems that may affect fracture rates.⁵ To date, however, there have been no satisfactory studies of fracture rates among North American Aboriginal groups. We sought to determine the overall and site-specific fracture rates of First Nations people compared with non-First Nations people in Manitoba.     

Psychological outcomes following maternal serum screening: a cohort study

BACKGROUND: Maternal serum screening is used to assist in the prenatal detection of congenital anomalies. Its use is controversial, and one concern that has been expressed is its psychological effects on women. The authors examined whether this test leads to an increase in anxiety and depression among women who have a false-positive result as compared with those who have a true-negative result or do not undergo testing. METHODS: A prospective cohort study with baseline assessment at 15 to 18 weeks'' gestation and follow-up at 24 weeks'' gestation was conducted. Pregnant women at 8 geographically diverse sites across Ontario were recruited. The main outcome measures were the state portion of the State--Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. RESULTS: Of the 2418 potential subjects 2020 (83.5%) were enrolled and eligible; 1741 (86.2%) completed the follow-up. A total of 1177 women (67.6%) underwent maternal serum screening. No overall adverse psychological effects as a result of testing were found at 24 weeks'' gestation. Women with a false-positive result had a mean increase in anxiety score of 1.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] -1.7 to 4.9), whereas women with a true-negative result had a mean decrease of 1.1 (95% CI -1.8 to -0.3) and those not tested had a mean decrease of 0.4 (95% CI -1.3 to 0.5). The mean depression score increased by 0.5 (95% CI -0.9 to 2.0) in the false-positive group, was unchanged (95% CI -0.3 to 0.4) in the true-negative group and increased by 0.2 (95% CI -1.7 to 1.2) in the not tested group. Of the women who underwent testing, 87 (7.6%) were unsure of their result at the time of follow-up. INTERPRETATION: The results suggest that maternal screening in Ontario is not causing serious psychological harm to women. Communication regarding test results could be improved, since a substantial proportion of women were unsure of their test result.