空间异质性对样地数据空间外推的影响

应用模型结合的方法模拟了3个空间异质性等级预案下反应变量(气候变化下景观水平的树种分布面积)的变化情况,并分析模拟结果在预案之间的差异性,探讨了环境空间异质性对样地观测到的树种对气候变化响应向更大空间尺度外推的影响.结果表明：空间异质性在一般情况下对样地数据向土地类型尺度外推没有影响,而对样地尺度外推到海拔带尺度的影响则有较复杂的情况.对于对气候变化不敏感的树种以及非地带性树种,空间异质性对样地数据向海拔带尺度外推没有影响;对于大多数对气候变化敏感的地带性树种而言,空间异质性对样地数据向海拔带尺度外推则有影响.     

Evaluation of habitat sustainability and vulnerability for beech (Fagus crenata) forests under 110 hypothetical climatic change scenarios in Japan

Questions: Are there any sustainable or vulnerable habitats in which beech (Fagus crenata) forests could survive in Japan under 110 hypothetical climate change scenarios? Location: Six islands of Japan on which beech grows naturally. Methods: An ecological habitat model was used to simulate the potential habitat shifts of beech forests under 110 climate change scenarios. The amount of suitable habitat loss and gain was calculated with three migration options and risk surfaces. Vulnerable and sustainable habitats were identified to evaluate the potential risks and survival of beech forests. Results: The total areas of potential suitable habitats differed considerably depending on the future temperature and precipitation changes. Some areas on the Sea of Japan (SOJ) side showed higher probability of maintaining suitable habitats, whereas there were wider areas in which suitable habitats could not persist under any of the 110 climate change scenarios. Conclusions: The risk surfaces of the suitable habitats showed that decreases in precipitation along with increases in temperature reduced the total areas of suitable habitats. Increases in precipitation with increases in temperature of more than or equal to 2°C always reduce the areas of suitable habitats. Under increased precipitation with a temperature increase of <2°C, the areas of suitable habitats showed an increase, maintenance of the status quo or a decrease, depending on the size of the increase in precipitation. Beech forests in western Japan are predicted to be vulnerable to climate change, whereas some mountains on the SOJ side are predicted to be possible future refugia.     

The naturalization status of African Spotted Orchid (Oeceoclades maculata) in Neotropics

Naturalization status of the African orchid introduced in the Neotropics, Oeceoclades maculata, was studied. Ecological niche modeling was applied to estimate the present distribution of the suitable habitats for the African Spotted Orchid. The similarity of the niches occupied by natural and invasive populations of the studied species was calculated. Moreover, future distribution of its suitable habitats was estimated on the basis of three different climatic change scenarios, and the potential further expansion scale was calculated based on range overlap test. Although currently O. maculata seems to have reached its potential limits of invasion in South America and as for now it should not spread to the new habitats, the species still has a potential of invasiveness in North America. The future climate changes will probably result in shifts in the distribution of African Spotted Orchid suitable niches thereby causing its expansion to the new areas.     

Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar’s plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.     

Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland

Aim Climate change has the potential to have significant impacts on the distribution of species and on the composition of habitats. This paper identifies the potential changes in the future distribution of species under the UKCIP98 climate change scenarios, in order that such changes can be taken into account in conservation management. Location The model was applied to Britain and Ireland. Methods A model based on an artificial neural network was used to predict the changing bioclimate envelopes of species in Britain and Ireland. Fifty‐four species representing 15 habitats were modelled. Results The modelled species could be placed into three categories: those losing suitable climate space, those gaining it, and those showing little or no change. When the species were associated with habitats it was found that Arctic–Alpine/montane heath communities were the most sensitive to climate change, followed by pine woodland and beech woodland in southern England. In lowland heath, wet heath, cereal field margins, coastal grazing marsh, drought‐prone acid grassland and calcareous grassland, the species either showed little change or an increase in suitable climate space. The other eight habitats showed a mixed response. Conclusions The species show a variety of responses to climate change and thus their current habitat associations may alter. The uncertain future of some species and habitats is highlighted. Conservation policy and practice will need to be revised in the face of climate change.     

Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios

Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20^th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20^th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.     

Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of zonal forest communities in Switzerland

Abstract. A spatially explicit, climate-sensitive vegetation model is presented to simulate both present and future distribution of potential natural vegetation types in Switzerland at the level of zonal forest communities. The model has two versions: (1) a ‘basic’ version using geographical region, aspect, bedrock (represented by soil pH), and elevation, and (2) a ‘climate-sensitive’ version obtained by replacing elevation (complex environmental gradient) with temperature (climatic factor). Version 2 is used to predict vegetation response under different (today's and projected) climatic conditions. Two regional climate scenarios are applied: (1) assuming an annual mean temperature increase of 1.1 — 1.4 °C, and (2) assuming an increase of 2.2 — 2.75 °C. Both scenarios result in significant changes of the spatial vegetation patterns as compared with today's climatic conditions. In scenario 1, ca. 33 % of the sample points remain unchanged in terms of the simulated zonal forest community; in scenario 2, virtually all sample points change. The most noticeable changes occur on the Swiss Plateau with Carpinion forests (zonal vegetation of present colline belt) expanding to areas that are occupied today by submontane and low-montane Fagus forests. To estimate the reliability of the simulation, quantitative (comparison with field mapping) and qualitative (comparison with climate types in the Alpine region) tests are performed and the main limitations of the approach are evaluated.     

Surrogate species protection in Bolivia under climate and land cover change scenarios

The Amazon rainforest covers more than 60% of Bolivia’s lowlands, providing habitat for many endemic and threatened species. Bolivia has the highest rates of deforestation of the Amazon biome, which degrades and fragments species habitat. Anthropogenic habitat changes could be exacerbated by climate change, and therefore, developing relevant strategies for biodiversity protection under global change scenarios is a necessary step in conservation planning.In this research we used multi-species umbrella concept to evaluate the degree of habitat impacts due to climate and land cover change in Bolivia. We used species distribution modeling to map three focal species (Jaguar, Lowland Tapir and Lesser Anteater) and assessed current protected area network effectiveness under future climate and land cover change scenarios for 2050.The studied focal species will lose between 70% and 83% of their ranges under future climate and land-cover change scenarios, decreasing the level of protection to 10% of their original ranges. Existing protected area network should be reconsidered to maintain current and future biodiversity habitats.     

Current and future habitat availability for Thick‐billed and Maroon‐fronted parrots in northern Mexican forests

Thick‐billed Parrots (Rhynchopsitta pachyrhyncha) and Maroon‐fronted Parrots (Rhynchopsitta terrisi) are the only parrots in Mexico found in high‐elevation coniferous forests. Both species are critically endangered due to logging, and climate change is expected to further reduce their available habitat. Our objectives were to assess the present and future availability of a suitable habitat for these parrots using ecological niche models. Future climatic scenarios were estimated by overlaying the present distributions of these parrots on maps of projected biome distributions generated using a North American vegetation model. Our climatic scenarios revealed that the distribution of key habitats for both parrots will likely be affected as the climate becomes more suitable for xeric biomes. The climate associated with coniferous forests in the current range of Maroon‐fronted Parrots is predicted to disappear by 2090, and the climate associated with the key coniferous habitats of Thick‐billed Parrots may contract. However, our results also indicate that suitable climatic conditions will prevail for the high‐elevation coniferous biomes where Thick‐billed Parrots nest. The degree to which both species of parrots will be able to adapt to the new scenarios is uncertain. Some of their life history traits may allow them to respond with a combination of adaptive and spatial responses to climatic change and, in addition, suitable climatic conditions will prevail in some portions of their ranges. Actions needed to ensure the conservation of these parrots include strict control of logging and integration of rapid response teams for fire management within the potential foraging ranges of nesting pairs. A landscape with a greater proportion of restored forests would also aid in the recovery of current populations of Thick‐billed and Maroon‐fronted parrots and facilitate their responses to climate change.     

The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios

Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an “indirect” plant-species-based one and a simple “direct” one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the “direct” approach was unsatisfactory, “indirect” models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species’ responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats’ distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future.     

The future distribution of river fish: The complex interplay of climate and land use changes,species dispersal and movement barriers

The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use‐driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species‐specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up‐ vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled “moderate” and “severe” climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller‐bodied fishes and to contract for larger‐bodied fishes. Moreover, habitats of lowland fish species were predicted to shift downstream, whereas those of headwater species showed upstream shifts. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are likely to shift faster than species might disperse. In particular, smaller‐bodied fish (<200 mm) seem most vulnerable and least able to track future environmental change as their habitat shifted most and they are typically weaker dispersers. Furthermore, fishes and particularly larger‐bodied species might substantially be restricted by movement barriers to respond to predicted climate and land use changes, while smaller‐bodied species are rather restricted by their specific dispersal ability.     

Incorporating the effects of changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on water availability in plant habitat models

The direct effects of CO2 level changes on plant water availability are usually ignored in plant habitat models. We compare traditional proxies for water availability with changes in soil water (fAWC) predicted by a process-based ecosystem model, which simulates changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including CO2 physiological effects. We modelled current and future habitats of 108 European tree species using ensemble forecasting, comprising six habitat models, two model evaluation methods and two climate change scenarios. The fAWC models' projections are generally more conservative. Potential habitats shrink significantly less for boreo-alpine and alpine species. Changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on plant water availability should therefore be taken into account in plant habitat change projections.     

气候变化背景下青藏高原藏羚羊生境时空格局演变

气候变化可能导致物种分布范围变化甚至导致物种灭绝。为了解气候变化对青藏高原旗舰种和濒危种-藏羚羊（Pantholops hodgsonii）的潜在分布区影响,收集了316个藏羚羊实际点位分布数据和70个文献点位分布数据与温度季节性变化（Bio4）,海拔,最干月降雨（Bio14）等9个影响因子,采用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）进行建模,预测SSP126、SSP585极端压迫情景和SSP245中间压迫情景下的T1（2001-2018年）,T2（2021-2040年）,T3（2041-2060年）,T4（2061-2080年）,T5（2081-2100年）5个时期的潜在分布区。研究结果表明：（1）在不同气候变化情景下,藏羚羊核心生境主要分布在可可西里、羌塘、阿尔金国家级自然保护区和三江源国家公园;（2）温度季节性变化（Bio4）和海拔被认为是最关键的两个环境因子;（3）随着温室气体排放强度的增强,藏羚羊的核心区生境向高海拔和高纬度地区扩张;（4）有43.18%的保护空缺区在保护区外,未受到有效保护。总之,研究藏羚羊的地理分布对于气候变化的响应与适应,根据适宜生境演变规律做出有效的保护措施,对藏羚羊种群的长期监测、保护、有效管理甚至重建具有重要现实意义。     

How vulnerable are holoparasitic plants with obligate hosts to negative climate change impacts?

One of the anthropogenic causes affecting species distribution is climate change, which has significant implications for species conservation. However, little is known about the effects of changes in parasitic plant distribution on community-level interactions. Parasitic flowering plants make a limited numerical contribution to biodiversity. Their lifestyle may exhibit a moderate to the high degree of host dependence. Because of this host dependence, parasites may be more affected by environmental changes, such as climate change, compared to autotrophic representatives. To our knowledge, the effects of different climate change scenarios and their environmental variables on parasitic plants and their hosts have not yet been studied. This study aimed to construct a model which shows the current and future potential effects of climate change on the distribution of the two holoparasitic plants Hydnora abyssinica A.Br., and H. africana Thunb. in comparison to their respective Fabaceae and Euphorbiaceae hosts. We projected the future distribution of these species and their host plants using five models, nine bioclimatic, and five environmental variables. The global circulation model (CMIP5) for the years 2050 and 2070, applying two representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) projected a 41–64% contraction of suitable habitats for H. abyssinica. For H. africana, more stable conditions are estimated, with a 12–28% contraction in suitable habitats, making this species putatively less prone to climate change effects, although this species has a more restricted distribution compared to H. abyssinica. Because climate change could affect the host differently than the parasites, the impact on the parasite could potentially be exacerbated due to host plant dependence. The models predict that the host plant distribution will be less affected, except for Vachelia Karroo, Vachellia xanthophloea, and Euphorbia gregaria, which indicated high contraction (40–66%). The predicted host species distribution ranges will only partially overlap with the respective distribution of the parasite.     

Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees

Background

Temperate fruit and nut trees require adequate winter chill to produce economically viable yields. Global warming has the potential to reduce available winter chill and greatly impact crop yields.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We estimated winter chill for two past (1975 and 2000) and 18 future scenarios (mid and end 21st century; 3 Global Climate Models [GCMs]; 3 greenhouse gas emissions [GHG] scenarios). For 4,293 weather stations around the world and GCM projections, Safe Winter Chill (SWC), the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of all years, was estimated for all scenarios using the “Dynamic Model” and interpolated globally. We found that SWC ranged between 0 and about 170 Chill Portions (CP) for all climate scenarios, but that the global distribution varied across scenarios. Warm regions are likely to experience severe reductions in available winter chill, potentially threatening production there. In contrast, SWC in most temperate growing regions is likely to remain relatively unchanged, and cold regions may even see an increase in SWC. Climate change impacts on SWC differed quantitatively among GCMs and GHG scenarios, with the highest GHG leading to losses up to 40 CP in warm regions, compared to 20 CP for the lowest GHG.

Conclusions/Significance

The extent of projected changes in winter chill in many major growing regions of fruits and nuts indicates that growers of these commodities will likely experience problems in the future. Mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can help reduce the impacts, however, adaption to changes will have to occur. To better prepare for likely impacts of climate change, efforts should be undertaken to breed tree cultivars for lower chilling requirements, to develop tools to cope with insufficient winter chill, and to better understand the temperature responses of tree crops.     

Niche Conservatism and Future Changes in the Potential Area Coverage of Arundina graminifolia,an Invasive Orchid Species from Southeast Asia

The Asian orchid, Arundina graminifolia, has been introduced to many locations over the last 50 yr, predominantly in South and Central America. A list of localities of A. graminifolia was compiled and used to model potential climatic niches based on the maximum entropy method. The differences are presented between niches occupied by native and invasive populations of A. graminifolia, and possible changes in the potential range of the species are discussed on the basis of various climate change scenarios. The coverage of habitats suitable for A. graminifolia will be reduced under future climate changes scenarios. The created niche distribution models indicated a more significant reduction in the potential ecological niches of the studied species in its invasive range. Nevertheless, areas with potentially suitable bioclimatic conditions for A. graminifolia should be monitored to prevent future uncontrolled invasion of the orchid into new habitats and to study its impact on the local ecosystems, as vast areas of its potential niche in the Americas are still unoccupied.     

Quantifying the Hydroregime of a Temporary Pool Habitat: A Modelling Approach for Ephemeral Rock Pools in SE Botswana

Ecological and evolutionary processes in temporary rock pools operate within constraints imposed by their hydrologic regimes. These shallow pools flood when seasonal rains accumulate on impermeable substrates. Despite the ecological importance of hydrologic conditions for these ecosystems, we typically lack tools and empirical data required to understand the implications of hydrologic variability and climate change for biotic populations and communities in these habitats. In this study, we developed a hydrologic model to simulate rock pool hydrologic regimes based on rainfall, evapotranspiration, and basin geometry. The model was used to investigate long-term patterns of seasonal and inter-annual variation in hydroregime. In addition, hydrologic conditions associated with potential climate change scenarios were simulated and evaluated with respect to the biological requirements of the anostracan Branchipodopsis wolfi. The model’s output for daily inundation matched with field observations with an overall accuracy of 85% and correctly estimated complete hydroperiods with an overall accuracy of 70%. Simulations indicate large variation in individual hydroperiods (76–115%) as well as in the number of hydroperiods per year (19–23%). Furthermore, this study suggests that climate change may significantly alter the rock pool hydroregime. These findings confirm the hydrologic sensitivity of these ephemeral habitats to precipitation patterns, and their potential sensitivity to future climate change. Modelling indicates that the suitability of average inundation conditions for B. wolfi deteriorates significantly under future climate predictions. High levels of spatial and temporal variation in hydrologic conditions are dominant features of these habitats and an essential consideration for understanding population and community-level ecological processes.     

Modeling of habitat suitability of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus) in Iran in future

Future changes in climate are imminent and they threat endangered and rare species due to habitat destruction. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus) is a rare and vulnerable species whose habitat fragmentation and habitat loss decreased the size of its population significantly. Climate change is another threat to this species that is investigated in this research work. Aiming at this goal, ten species distribution models (SDMs) were applied as helpful tools for evaluating the potential effectiveness of climate change in habitat suitability of Asiatic black bear in Iran. Potential dispersal of Asiatic black bear was modeled as a function of 32 environmental variables for the current time and 2070 for 44 climate change scenarios (CC scenario) of future climate. Our results showed that modeling result depended on type of model. Our results confirmed that one of the greatest threats in the near future for Asiatic black bear was the change of suitable habitat due to climate change. All the CC scenarios showed that migration of this species would be to the north and west areas with higher elevation and that an increase in area would be more than a decrease in area in all scenarios. Recognizing and protecting potential future habitats are of the important activities to conserve this species and identify areas with conservation priority.     

气候变化对中国近海8种中上层鱼类潜在生境分布的影响

随着底层和近底层渔业资源的衰退,海洋中上层鱼类在我国海洋捕捞业中逐渐占据重要的地位。预测气候变化情景下中上层经济鱼类的潜在生境分布及其变化规律,可为应对气候变化的鱼类栖息地保护和渔业生态系统管理提供重要科学依据。采用物种分布模型模拟并预测现状及2050年两种气候变化情景下8种中上层经济鱼类在中国近海的潜在分布,通过分布区的收缩-扩张情形和质心迁移距离定量分析气候变化对鱼类空间分布格局的影响。结果表明：(1)模型预测结果良好,各组模型的AUC值均高于0.85,影响目标鱼类潜在分布的主要驱动因子为海水表层温度和溶解氧;(2)8种中上层经济鱼类中,羽鳃鲐(Rastrelliger kanagurta)、鳓鱼(Ilisha elongata)等种类生境分布偏南,气候变化情景下分布北界可扩展至长江口,而鳀鱼(Engraulis japonicus)、青鳞小沙丁鱼(Sardinella zunasi)等种类主要分布在我国北方海域,气候变化情景下生境南缘边界退缩明显;(3)整体来看RCP8.5情景下的空间分布变化率大于RCP2.6情景,其中蓝圆鲹(Decapterus maruadsi)、青鳞小沙丁...