Integrated pest management models and their dynamical behaviour

Two impulsive models of integrated pest management (IPM) strategies are proposed, one with fixed intervention times and the other with these unfixed. The first model allows natural enemies to survive but under some conditions may lead to extinction of the pest. We use a simple prey-dependent consumption model with fixed impulsive effects and show that there exists a globally stable pesteradication periodic solution when the impulsive period is less than certain critical values. The effects of pest resistance to pesticides are also studied. The second model is constructed in the light of IPM practice such that when the pest population reaches the economic injury level (EIL), a combination of biological, cultural, and chemical tactics that reduce pests to tolerable levels is invoked. Using analytical methods, we show that there exists an orbitally asymptotically stable periodic solution with a maximum value no larger than the given Economic Threshold (ET). The complete expression for this periodic solution is given and the ET is evaluated for given parameters.We also show that in some cases control costs can be reduced by replacing IPM interventions at unfixed times with periodic interventions. Further, we show that small perturbations of the system do not affect the existence and stability of the periodic solution. Thus, we provide the first demonstration using mathematical models that an IPM strategy is more effective than classical control methods.     

Multiple attractors of host-parasitoid models with integrated pest management strategies: eradication, persistence and outbreak

Host-parasitoid models including integrated pest management (IPM) interventions with impulsive effects at both fixed and unfixed times were analyzed with regard to host-eradication, host-parasitoid persistence and host-outbreak solutions. The host-eradication periodic solution with fixed moments is globally stable if the host’s intrinsic growth rate is less than the summation of the mean host-killing rate and the mean parasitization rate during the impulsive period. Solutions for all three categories can coexist, with switch-like transitions among their attractors showing that varying dosages and frequencies of insecticide applications and the numbers of parasitoids released are crucial. Periodic solutions also exist for models with unfixed moments for which the maximum amplitude of the host is less than the economic threshold. The dosages and frequencies of IPM interventions for these solutions are much reduced in comparison with the pest-eradication periodic solution. Our results, which are robust to inclusion of stochastic effects and with a wide range of parameter values, confirm that IPM is more effective than any single control tactic.     

The dynamics of a Lotka–Volterra predator–prey model with state dependent impulsive harvest for predator

According to the economic and biological aspects of renewable resources management, we propose a Lotka–Volterra predator–prey model with state dependent impulsive harvest. By using the Poincaré map, some conditions for the existence and stability of positive periodic solution are obtained. Moreover, we show that there is no periodic solution with order larger than or equal to three under some conditions. Numerical results are carried out to illustrate the feasibility of our main results. The bifurcation diagrams of periodic solutions are obtained by using the numerical simulations, and it is shown that a chaotic solution is generated via a cascade of period-doubling bifurcations, which implies that the presence of pulses makes the dynamic behavior more complex.     

Optimum timing for integrated pest management: Modelling rates of pesticide application and natural enemy releases

Many factors including pest natural enemy ratios, starting densities, timings of natural enemy releases, dosages and timings of insecticide applications and instantaneous killing rates of pesticides on both pests and natural enemies can affect the success of IPM control programmes. To address how such factors influence successful pest control, hybrid impulsive pest-natural enemy models with different frequencies of pesticide sprays and natural enemy releases were proposed and analyzed. With releasing both more or less frequent than the sprays, a stability threshold condition for a pest eradication periodic solution is provided. Moreover, the effects of times of spraying pesticides (or releasing natural enemies) and control tactics on the threshold condition were investigated with regard to the extent of depression or resurgence resulting from pulses of pesticide applications. Multiple attractors from which the pest population oscillates with different amplitudes can coexist for a wide range of parameters and the switch-like transitions among these attractors showed that varying dosages and frequencies of insecticide applications and the numbers of natural enemies released are crucial. To see how the pesticide applications could be reduced, we developed a model involving periodic releases of natural enemies with chemical control applied only when the densities of the pest reached the given Economic Threshold. The results indicate that the pest outbreak period or frequency largely depends on the initial densities and the control tactics.     

Pest management through continuous and impulsive control strategies

In this paper, we propose two mathematical models concerning continuous and, respectively, impulsive pest control strategies. In the case in which a continuous control is used, it is shown that the model admits a globally asymptotically stable positive equilibrium under appropriate conditions which involve parameter estimations. As a result, the global asymptotic stability of the unique positive equilibrium is used to establish a procedure to maintain the pests at an acceptably low level in the long term. In the case in which an impulsive control is used, it is observed that there exists a globally asymptotically stable susceptible pest-eradication periodic solution on condition that the amount of infective pests released periodically is larger than some critical value. When the amount of infective pests released is less than this critical value, the system is shown to be permanent, which implies that the trivial susceptible pest-eradication solution loses its stability. Further, the existence of a nontrivial periodic solution is also studied by means of numerical simulation. Finally, the efficiency of continuous and impulsive control policies is compared.     

具有综合控制策略的离散宿主病原体模型(英文)

研究了具有综合控制策略的离散宿主病原体模型,并考虑了固定时刻脉冲效应和状态依赖脉冲效应对综合控制策略的影响.对于固定时刻脉冲的模型,分析了宿主根除、宿主病原体共存以及宿主爆发周期解的存在性和稳定性,并给出了宿主根除周期解全局稳定的充分条件.对于状态依赖的脉冲离散模型,数值研究说明宿主最大振幅不超过经济临界值的周期解的存在性以及相应动态行为的复杂性.     

状态依赖脉冲微分方程的周期解的存在性及其在害虫治理中的应用

在文献[1]中研究的状态依赖脉冲微分方程的基础上,推广了其中的判定一般性平面自治状态依赖脉冲微分方程的准则,并利用它得到了文献[1]中所没有涉及到的情况下的状态依赖脉冲微分方程的阶一周期解☆栌在性．之后本文以此为基础并结合数值模拟的手段讨论了系统在农业害虫治理中的一些应用意义．     

季节性和综合害虫管理策略实施时间对害虫控制的影响(英文)

通过建立具有季节变化和综合脉冲控制效应的非自治捕食与被捕食模型,我们得到了保证害虫根除的临界条件,即得到了保证害虫根除周期解全局稳定的充分条件.进而我们讨论了季节性变化以及最优的害虫控制策略实施时间对临界条件的影响.结论显示当害虫种群数量具有季节波动时,系统存在使得临界值达到最小的最优控制策略实施时间.     

Periodic solution of a chemostat model with Monod growth rate and impulsive state feedback control

In this paper, we develop a mathematical model concerning a chemostat with impulsive state feedback control to investigate the periodicity of bioprocess. By the existence criteria of periodic solution of a general planar impulsive autonomous system, the conditions under which the model has a periodic solution of order one are obtained. Furthermore, we estimate the position of the periodic solution of order one and discuss the existence of periodic solution of order two. The theoretical results and numerical simulations indicate that the chemostat system with impulsive state feedback control either tends to a stable state or has a periodic solution, which depends on the feedback state, the control parameter of the dilution rate and the initial concentrations of microorganisms and substrate.     

The prey-dependent consumption two-prey one-predator models with stage structure for the predator and impulsive effects

In this paper, we consider the prey-dependent consumption two-prey one-predator models with stage structure for the predator and impulsive effects. By applying the Floquet theory of linear periodic impulsive equation, we show that there exists a globally asymptotically stable pest-eradication periodic solution when the impulsive period is less than some critical value, that is, the pest population can be eradicated totally. But from the point of ecological balance and saving resources, we only need to control the pest population under the economic threshold level instead of eradicating it totally, and thus, we further prove that the system is uniformly permanent if the impulsive period is larger than some critical value, and meanwhile we also give the conditions for the extinction of one of the two preys and permanence of the remaining species. Thus, we can use the stability of the positive periodic solution and its period to control insect pests at acceptably low levels. Considering population communities always are imbedded in periodically varying environments, and the parameters in ecosystem models may oscillate simultaneously with the periodically varying environments, we add a forcing term into the prey population's intrinsic growth rate. The resulting bifurcation diagrams show that with the varying of parameters, the system experiences process of cycles, periodic windows, periodic-doubling cascade, symmetry breaking bifurcation as well as chaos.     

具有经济阈值的植物疾病模型

研究了具有经济阈值和人文控制策略的植物疾病模型．根据某一参数的三种情况分析了唯一的正的周期解的存在性,并利用定性理论给出了在该参数某种范围下周期解全局稳定的充分条件,同时得到在其它两种情况下周期解的不稳定性．文章所得结论推广了综合疾病管理中植物疾病模型的经典结论．     

具有阶段结构和群体防卫的脉冲捕食系统

讨论了食饵具有群体防卫和捕食者具有阶段结构的脉冲控制捕食系统,根据Floquet乘子理论和脉冲比较定理,获得了食饵（害虫）灭绝周期解局部稳定与系统持续生存的充分条件．利用Matlab软件对害虫灭绝周期解和害虫周期爆发现象进行了数值模拟,并揭示了诸如高倍周期振荡,混沌,吸引子突变等复杂的动力学现象．得出的结论为害虫治理提供了可靠的策略依据．     

Periodic solution of a chemostat model with Beddington-DeAnglis uptake function and impulsive state feedback control

In this paper, a chemostat model with Beddington-DeAnglis uptake function and impulsive state feedback control is considered. We obtain sufficient conditions of the global asymptotical stability of the system without impulsive state feedback control. We also obtain that the system with impulsive state feedback control has periodic solution of order one. Sufficient conditions for existence and stability of periodic solution of order one are given. In some cases, it is possible that the system exists periodic solution of order two. Our results show that the control measure is effective and reliable.     

The geometrical analysis of a predator-prey model with two state impulses

Using successor functions and Poincaré-Bendixson theorem of impulsive differential equations, the existence of periodical solutions to a predator-prey model with two state impulses is investigated. By stability theorem of periodic solution to impulsive differential equations, the stability conditions of periodic solutions to the system are given. Some simulations are exerted to prove the results.     

Global stability and optimisation of a general impulsive biological control model

An impulsive model of augmentative biological control consisting of a general continuous predator-prey model in ordinary differential equations, i.e. a meta-model, augmented by a discrete part describing periodic introductions of predators is considered. The existence of an invariant periodic solution that corresponds to prey eradication is shown and a condition ensuring its global asymptotic stability is given. An optimisation problem related to the preemptive use of augmentative biological control is then considered. It is assumed that the per time unit budget of biological control (i.e. the number of predators to be released) is fixed and the best deployment of this budget is sought in terms of release frequency. The cost function to be minimised is the time needed to reduce an unforeseen prey (pest) invasion occurring at a worst time instant under some harmless level. The analysis shows that the optimisation problem admits a countable infinite number of solutions. An argumentation considering the required robustness of the optimisation result with respect to the invasive prey population level and to the model parameters is then conducted. It is shown that the cost function is decreasing in the predator release frequency so that the best deployment of the biocontrol agents is to carry out as frequent introductions as possible.     

一类带Monod增长率及脉冲状态反馈控制的微生物杀虫剂模型的周期解

研究了一类带Monod增长率及脉冲状态反馈控制的微生物杀虫剂模型．证明了无脉冲系统的负向全局渐近稳定性及带有脉冲状态反馈控制系统具有阶一周期解,并且给出阶一周期解存在和稳定的充分条件．数值模拟验证了理论结果．     

Two models of interfering predators in impulsive biological control

In this paper, we study the effects of Beddington-DeAngelis interference and squabbling, respectively, on the minimal rate of predator release required to drive a pest population to zero. A two-dimensional system of coupled ordinary differential equations is considered, augmented by an impulsive component depicting the periodic release of predators into the system. This periodic release takes place independently of the detection of the pests in the field. We establish the existence of a pest-free solution driven by the periodic releases, and express the global stability conditions for this solution in terms of the minimal predator rate required to bring an outbreak of pests to nil. In particular, we show that with the interference effects, the minimal rate will only guarantee eradication if the releases are carried out frequently enough. When Beddington-DeAngelis behaviour is considered, an additional constraint for the existence itself of a successful release rate is that the pest growth rate should be less than the predation pressure, the latter explicitly formulated in terms of the predation function and the interference parameters.     

Modelling and analysis of impulsive releases of sterile mosquitoes

To study the impact of releasing sterile mosquitoes on mosquito-borne disease transmissions, we propose two mathematical models with impulsive releases of sterile mosquitoes. We consider periodic impulsive releases in the first model and obtain the existence, uniqueness, and globally stability of a wild-mosquito-eradication periodic solution. We also establish thresholds for the control of the wild mosquito population by selecting the release rate and the release period. In the second model, the impulsive releases are determined by the closely monitored wild mosquito density, or the state feedback. We prove the existence of an order one periodic solution and find a relatively small attraction region, which ensures the wild mosquito population is under control. We provide numerical analysis which shows that a smaller release rate and more frequent releases are more efficient in controlling the wild mosquito population for the periodic releases, but an early release of sterile mosquitoes is more effective for the state feedback releases.     

具有脉冲生育和脉冲收获的时滞SEI害虫治理模型的动力学分析

根据控制害虫的生物策略,考虑了一个不同时刻害虫具有脉冲生育和对害虫进行脉冲收获的时滞的SEI害虫治理模型.我们证明了系统所有的解都是一致有界的,同时获得了无病周期解是全局吸引的充分条件.进一步,得到了具有时滞的系统持续生存的充分条件.基于研究所得到的结果,作者提出了害虫治理的一些合理建议.     

An impulsive delayed SEIRS epidemic model with saturation incidence

A delayed SEIRS epidemic model with pulse vaccination and saturation incidence rate is investigated. Using Krasnoselskii's fixed-point theorem, we obtain the existence of infection-free periodic solution of the impulsive delayed epidemic system. We define some new threshold values R(1), R(2) and R(3). Further, using the comparison theorem, we obtain the explicit formulae of R(1) and R(2). Under the condition R(1) < 1, the infection-free periodic solution is globally attractive, and that R(2) > 1 implies that the disease is permanent. Theoretical results show that the disease will be extinct if the vaccination rate is larger than θ* and the disease is uniformly persistent if the vaccination rate is less than θ(*). Our results indicate that a long latent period of the disease or a large pulse vaccination rate will lead to eradication of the disease. Moreover, we prove that the disease will be permanent as R(3) > 1.