Fish, Fact and Fantasy: a Long View

This paper suggests ways forward from the widely perceived present failures of fishery assessment and management. A history of fishery yield modelling is presented from the carefree days of the 1950s to the depressing series of stock collapses and depletions of the 1980s. Underlying this gruesome story has been the failure of management by quotas to arrest overcapacity in fishing power, the lack of robust and informative reference points and the inadequacy of methods dealing with some multispecies fisheries. The paper refines the use of the concept of Fext, defined as the minimum value of F in a self-regenerating yield model that leads to eventual extinction in a family of yield curves generated with a range of stock recruitment curves. Model reconstructions for North Sea cod and Icelandic herring make evident calamitous losses in catches forgone as result of the failure of rational management. An optimistic agenda that may achieve more effective fishery management in the future is presented. In some ways, we may have been trying to be too clever. A simple management system based on careful monitoring of fishing effort, biological targets such as F95, and exploitation of a diversity of fish resources may suffice to avert further disaster and hedge against uncertainty.     

Recruitment prediction for Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) on the west coast of Vancouver Island, Canada

The accurate prediction of recruitment to the fishery is a very important tool within the management structure of any fish stock being exploited. In the case of the Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi, fishery in Canada, a forecast of the abundance of each herring stock is particularly important for formulating an annual catch quota. The sustainable management of the fishery and the resource is based in part on accurate recruitment forecasting because Pacific herring are short-lived and so the recruitment contributes a significant part of the total spawning run targeted by the fishery each year. Several factors are believed be important in determining the success of recruitment besides spawners biomass. Since herrings are “r” strategists, conditions related to the egg, the planktonic, or even the juvenile stage might determine the future level of recruitment. Recently a formula that defines conditions for a semi-quantitative level of recruitment forecast was elaborated using genetic algorithms and current study attempts to improve on this model. Using salinity in two quarterly periods during the planktonic and pre-recruit stages, temperature and spawning biomass for the west coast of Vancouver Island stock, classification rules that define recruitment in 3 different levels (low, medium and high) were developed with a genetic algorithm, setting low and high boundaries for each condition. A 75% success in classifying recruitment was obtained. The model was shown to be particularly effective at predicting when the recruitment would be low, which could be important from the perspective of the Precautionary Approach and the sustainable management of this stock.     

Constant proportion harvest policies: dynamic implications in the Pacific halibut and Atlantic cod fisheries

Overfishing, pollution and other environmental factors have greatly reduced commercially valuable stocks of fish. In a 2006 Science article, a group of ecologists and economists warned that the world may run out of seafood from natural stocks if overfishing continues at current rates. In this paper, we explore the interaction between a constant proportion harvest policy and recruitment dynamics. We examine the discrete-time constant proportion harvest policy discussed in Ang et al. (2009) and then expand the framework to include stock-recruitment functions that are compensatory and overcompensatory, both with and without the Allee effect.We focus on constant proportion policies (CPPs). CPPs have the potential to stabilize complex overcompensatory stock dynamics, with or without the Allee effect, provided the rates of harvest stay below a threshold. If that threshold is exceeded, CPPs are known to result in the sudden collapse of a fish stock when stock recruitment exhibits the Allee effect. In case studies, we analyze CPPs as they might be applied to Gulf of Alaska Pacific halibut fishery and the Georges Bank Atlantic cod fishery based on harvest rates from 1975 to 2007. The best fit models suggest that, under high fishing mortalities, the halibut fishery is vulnerable to sudden population collapse while the cod fishery is vulnerable to steady decline to zero. The models also suggest that CPP with mean harvesting levels from the last 30 years can be effective at preventing collapse in the halibut fishery, but these same policies would lead to steady decline to zero in the Atlantic cod fishery. We observe that the likelihood of collapse in both fisheries increases with increased stochasticity (for example, weather variability) as predicted by models of global climate change.     

Assessment of exploited fish species in the Lake Edward System,East Africa

The unknown status of inland fish stocks hinders their sustainable management. Therefore, increasing stock status information is important for sustainable inland fisheries. Fisheries reference points were estimated for five exploited fish species (11 stocks) in the Lake Edward system, East Africa, which is one of the most productive inland water systems. The aim was to ascertain the status of the fisheries and establish reference points for effective management. The reference points were based on four linked stock assessment approaches for data-limited fisheries. Estimates showed poor stock status with the stocks defined as either collapsed, recruitment impaired or overfished. However, higher catches could be obtained under sustainable management. Estimates of maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and supporting biomass (B_msy) are provided for 10 of the stocks as targets for rebuilding plans. The immediate target of management should be rebuilding biomass to B_msy. Applicable measures include shifting length at first capture to the length that maximizes catch without endangering size structure and biomass, and livelihood diversification out of fisheries.     

海洋甲壳类生物资源评估方法研究进展

目前甲壳类生物资源,如蟹、龙虾、对虾及南极磷虾等组成了全球庞大且极具商业价值的渔业.虽然这些渔业的重要性逐步提升,规模也在扩大,但相对于其他渔业,适合且有效的海洋甲壳类资源评估与管理方法仍需进一步发展.本文回顾和评价了各种用于甲壳类生物资源评估的方法与模型,对剩余产量模型、时滞差分模型、损耗模型及体长结构模型等应用到甲壳类生物资源评估的4种主要模型进行了归纳和分析,简要地总结了这几种模型在应用时所需要的假设前提以及对所需数据的要求等,并对比分析了几种模型的优、缺点.此外,本文还列举了关于资源评估方法中模型的假设要求.参数的估算方法、不确定性来源及一般性解决办法等.最后,本文对甲壳类资源评估方法的发展方向和前景进行了展望.     

Local influence diagnostics for quasi-likelihood and lognormal estimates of a biological reference point from some fish stock and recruitment models

We present local influence diagnostics to measure the sensitivity of a biological limit reference point (LRP) estimated from fitting a model to stock and recruitment data. LRPs are low levels of stock size that the management of commercial fisheries should avoid with high probability. The LRP we examine is the stock size at which recruitment is 50% of the maximum (S(50%)). We derive analytic equations to describe the effects on S(50%) of changing the weight that observations are given in estimation. We derive equations for the Ricker, Beverton-Holt, and hockey-stick stock-recruit models, and four estimation methods including the error sums of squares method on log responses and three quasi-likelihood methods. We conclude from case studies that the hockey-stick model produces the most robust estimates.     

Fisheries for small pelagic species: an empirical approach to management targets

Summary Long-term management targets based on MSY, F_max or F_0.1 are inappropriate for small pelagic fish because of the possibility of stock collapse owing to a stock-recruit relationship at low biomasses. Better reference points such as F_med and F_high that take account of stock and recruit data cannot be used in developing fishery situations because they are too demanding of data. A simple model was fitted to medium-term (about 10 year) periods in exploited small pelagic fisheries, relating change in stock biomass to exploitation rate. Data from 28 stocks and 11 species were used. The fitted model was used to estimate likelihood of stock decrease at different exploitation rates. The pelagic stocks included in the model appeared to be in equilibrium for an exploitation rate F/Z=0.4, which may be used as a guideline for the appropriate exploitation of pelagic stocks.     

Fishing diseased abalone to promote yield and conservation

Past theoretical models suggest fishing disease-impacted stocks can reduce parasite transmission, but this is a good management strategy only when the exploitation required to reduce transmission does not overfish the stock. We applied this concept to a red abalone fishery so impacted by an infectious disease (withering syndrome) that stock densities plummeted and managers closed the fishery. In addition to the non-selective fishing strategy considered by past disease-fishing models, we modelled targeting (culling) infected individuals, which is plausible in red abalone because modern diagnostic tools can determine infection without harming landed abalone and the diagnostic cost is minor relative to the catch value. The non-selective abalone fishing required to eradicate parasites exceeded thresholds for abalone sustainability, but targeting infected abalone allowed the fishery to generate yield and reduce parasite prevalence while maintaining stock densities at or above the densities attainable if the population was closed to fishing. The effect was strong enough that stock and yield increased even when the catch was one-third uninfected abalone. These results could apply to other fisheries as the diagnostic costs decline relative to catch value.     

An analysis of genetic stock identification on a small geographical scale using microsatellite markers,and its application in the management of a mixed‐stock fishery for Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in Ireland

A genetic stock identification (GSI) study was undertaken in a fishery for Atlantic salmon Salmo salar to determine the effects of restrictive fishery management measures on the stock composition of the fishery, and if accurate and precise stock composition estimates could be achieved on the small geographical scale where this fishery operates, using a suite of only seven microsatellite loci. The stock composition of the Foyle fishery was shown to comprise almost exclusively of Foyle origin fish in the 3 years after restrictive measures were introduced in 2007, compared to 85% the year before. This showed that the restrictive measures resulted in the Foyle fishery being transformed from a mixed‐stock fishery to an almost exclusively single‐stock fishery, and showed how GSI studies can guide and evaluate management decisions to successfully manage these fisheries. Highly accurate and precise stock composition estimates were achieved in this study, using both cBAYES and ONCOR genetic software packages. This suggests accurate and precise stock composition is possible even on small geographical scales.     

Coral reef fisheries stock assessment

Summary Although all fisheries are multispecies and spatially heterogeneous, coral reef fisheries are an extreme in both respects. The two main approaches to stock assessment have been either to consider individual species separately or to lump all species together. Both are limited in their predictive power. The lack of ecological knowledge and the large number of parameters required make methods based on single species often impractical or expensive. However, where the appropriate information is available, ecological studies do not provide significant improvements on yield-per-recruit or surplus yield models currently used.Alternative community models based on aggregates of species lack predictive power, empirical support and relative data. Models are further limited because they do not address various economic aspects, fish movement and recruitment, all of which must be spatially resolved. However, the ECOPATH model, based on trophic compartments, represents a new approach useful to multispecies assessment, and the only way at present to include predation in stock models. In practice the data available will be the most important factor in the choice of stock assessment model.The major concern for management of many coral reefs is conservation of the habitat and stocks. In some cases this has been achieved with little reference to stock assessment, by using community management and closed areas, which are receiving increasing support. However, once the objective of conservation is achieved, stock assessment should have an important role in improving the economic performance of the fisheries. The wider problems of management have no simple solutions, but managers should look to adaptive management, designing their own experiments to choose between management models.     

Long-term effects of hydropower installations and associated river regulation on River Shannon eel populations: mitigation and management

The Shannon, Ireland’s largest river, is used for hydroelectricity generation since 1929. Subsequently, the Electricity Supply Board assumed responsibility for management of its eel stocks, due to the impact of the hydro-dam on recruitment to the commercial fishery. In order to negate a decline in juvenile recruitment resulting from the installation of hydroelectric facilities, management was focused on stocking lakes with elvers and fingerling eels. These were trapped at the hydropower facilities and in estuarine tributaries during their up-stream migrations. Due to the decline of natural recruitment in more recent times, attempts have also been made to develop an estuarine glass eel fishery. Stock levels are then monitored through annual surveys of the population trends of juvenile (glass eel, elver), growing phase (yellow eel) and downstream migrating pre-spawners (silver eels). Survey results and fishery management programmes are reviewed in this article. In addition to the long-term effects the hydroelectric facilities have had on the stock levels, there is also an annual effect on the migratory patterns of downstream migratory silver eels. In the lower reaches of the river system flow rates are regulated by the hydroelectric stations. We review previous work that had highlighted the importance of flow in determining the timing of the silver eels migrations, and assess the relationship between flow and migration in more detail through the use of hydroacoustic and telemetric studies. Current research on seaward migrating silver eel populations, suggests that spawner escapement rates can most effectively be increased by trapping migrating eels at fishing weirs located up-stream of the power station and transporting them towards the estuary. Guest editors: R. L. Welcomme & G. Marmulla Hydropower, Flood Control and Water Abstraction: Implications for Fish and Fisheries     

The dangers of ignoring stock complexity in fishery management: the case of the North Sea cod

The plight of the marine fisheries is attracting increasing attention as unsustainably high exploitation levels, exacerbated by more extreme climatic conditions, are driving stocks to the point of collapse. The North Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), a species which until recently formed a major component of the demersal fisheries, has undergone significant declines across its range. The North Sea stock is typical of many, with a spawning stock biomass that has remained below the safe biological limit since 2000 and recruitment levels near the lowest on record. Cod within the North Sea are currently managed as a single stock, and yet mounting empirical evidence supports the existence of a metapopulation of regionally variable, genetically distinct, sub-stocks. Applying the same management strategies to multiple stocks that differ in their resilience to exploitation inevitably results in the overfishing and likely collapse of the weaker components. Indeed, recent studies have identified two North Sea spawning stocks that have undergone disproportionally large collapses with very substantial reductions in egg production. Similarly affected cod stocks in the northwest Atlantic have shown little evidence of recovery, despite fishery closures. The possible implications of ignoring sub-structuring within management units for biocomplexity, local adaptation and ecosystem stability are considered.     

Density dependence and the economic efficacy of marine reserves

Predictions on the efficacy of marine reserves for benefiting fisheries differ in large part due to considerations of models of either intra- or inter-cohort population density regulating fish recruitment. Here, I consider both processes acting on recruitment and show using a bioeconomic model how for many fisheries density dependent recruitment dynamics interact with harvest costs to influence fishery profit with reserves. Reserves consolidate fishing effort, favoring fisheries that can profitably harvest low-density stocks of species where adult density mediates recruitment. Conversely, proportion coastline in reserves that maximizes profit, and relative improvement in profit from reserves over conventional management, decline with increasing harvest costs and the relative importance of intra-cohort density dependence. Reserves never increase profit when harvest cost is high, regardless of density dependent recruitment dynamics. I quantitatively synthesize diverse results in the literature, show disproportionate effects on the economic performance of reserves from considering only inter- or intra-cohort density dependence, and highlight fish population and fishery dynamics predicted to be complementary to reserve management. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

雅鲁藏布江拉萨裸裂尻鱼种群资源状况及其渔业管理对策

拉萨裸裂尻鱼为我国特有种,由于过度捕捞和生物入侵,其种群生存受到极大威胁.2008年8月至2009年8月在西藏雅鲁藏布江谢通门至尼木江段共采集拉萨裸裂尻鱼694尾,利用单位补充量模型对其种群资源利用状况及渔业管理对策进行了研究.结果表明:雌性和雄性拉萨裸裂尻鱼年总瞬时死亡率(Z)分别为0.81和0.78年^-1,雌雄种群自然死亡率(M)分别在0.17~0.27和0.21~0.33年^-1,雌雄鱼的当前捕捞死亡率(Fcur)分别在0.54~0.64和0.45~0.57年^-1.拉萨裸裂尻鱼雌鱼种群繁殖潜力比为10.1%~17.9%,全部显著低于下限参考点(F25%),雄鱼种群繁殖潜力比为28.3%~43.6%,仅有22.3%的比例高于目标参考点(F40%).表明在现有的渔业管理政策下,拉萨裸裂尻鱼资源已被过度开发.通过模拟14个不同的渔业管理政策,评估起捕年龄和禁渔期对拉萨裸裂尻鱼的保护效果,结果表明,将其起捕年龄设置为不小于10龄或禁渔期至少设置为2-6月,可实现对其资源的有效养护.     

The application of an age-structured model to the north Aegean anchovy fishery: an evaluation of different management measures

The objective of this paper is the integration of existing biological and fishery knowledge of anchovy into a unified modelling framework in order to advance our understanding of species' population dynamics under different fishing strategies. The model simulates the anchovy biomass by combining an age-specific growth equation and a continuous age-structured population model based on the McKendrick-Von Foerster equation. Model predictions were compared to the biomass estimates and annual catches during the period 2003-2008. The present work provided direct evidence for the significance of the prespawning period as a critical life period for the management of anchovy stock in the Aegean Sea. It was found that the introduction of additional management measures could increase the profits in the long run for the fishery. However, for these to become apparent they will require a minimum of four years. Results also indicated that the reduction of fishing mortality directed at the spawning stock (recruitment overfishing) and the selective harvesting of younger individuals may be a plausible means of increasing stock's total anchovy biomass. Finally, as a criterion of long-term population survival, we have considered the mathematical notation of persistence. The numerical criteria of persistence in the present model indicated that the anchovy population could be considered viable.     

World whale stocks

The history of whaling is very largely one of repeated over-exploitation of the various whale stocks which became available through discovery or technological advance. Modern whaling has similarly caused considerable reductions in the numbers of some species in the major whaling grounds. Stock assessment methods are based on catch and effort statistics, biological information including age and reproductive status, marking and sightings records. Catch effort data have to be used with caution, because of changes in species preference, shifts in the whaling grounds and national fleet variations. With allowance made for these factors, cumulative catches adjusted for recruitment can be used to estimate the initial stock number. Changes in stock density after known catches also lead to abundance estimates. Logarithmic regression of age composition data are used to find the total mortality rates. The natural mortality can be estimated from early season catches in a fishery or pre-fishery year classes caught more recently; fishing mortality is found by subtraction, which again leads to abundance estimates. Mathematical approaches incorporating recruitment estimates from actual age composition data and theoretical population models have been employed. Additional estimates come from mark release-recapture experiments and direct sightings counts from whaling vessels and research ships. The latter are the only means of estimating the protected species. The yields which the various stocks can sustain are calculated from direct observations and theoretical considerations of the changes in recruitment, largely due to increased pregnancy rates and the lower ages at sexual maturity which occur in exploited stocks. The results of all the available analyses have been compared and combined to produce the population estimates and yields tabulated. The object of whale management is to bring all stocks to the levels providing the maximum or optimum sustainable yields. These are defined in terms of numbers at the moment, but may be expressed as biomass in the future.     

Fishery policy when considering the future opportunity of harvesting

Free access to a common pool of resource in a country may lead to over-exploitation and sacrifice future opportunities of harvesting. As such, the protection of a common fishery resource is worth investigating. In this paper we develop a two-period model and a multi-period model to analyze the optimal inter-temporal utilization of a finite resource of stock and propose to impose a tax on the harvest rate as an efficient mechanism with an aim at economic sustainability by incorporating the future opportunity of harvesting into the models as a major component of social objectives. The sensitivity analysis of the two-period model shows that (1) labor inputs for harvesting in Period 1 should be reduced, the biomass of fishery stock will increase, but the harvesting in Period 2 should be amplified and the biomass of fishery stock in Period 2 will not be affected if the current generation owns a higher valuation on the future opportunity of harvesting; (2) a higher internal regeneration rate leads to higher harvesting in each period and a higher level of fishery stock in Period 1, but an uncertain level of fishery stock in Period 2; (3) with a higher discount rate the harvesting in Period 1 should increase, but the harvesting in Period 2 should fall and the level of fishery stock in each period will be reduced; (4) a higher fish price in Period 1 leads to higher harvesting in Period 1, but reduced harvesting in Period 2. As a consequence, the level of fishery stock in each period will be reduced; (5) the effect of a change in fish prices in Period 2 on the harvesting and the level of fishery stock in Period 1 is uncertain, but the change in fish prices in Period 2 gives a positive effect on harvesting in Period 2 and a negative effect on the level of fishery stock in Period 2; (6) higher labor wages in Period 1 lead to lower harvesting, but a higher level of fishery stock in Period 1. This encourages an increase in harvesting in Period 2 and leads to a higher level of fishery stock in Period 2; and (7) a change of the labor wage in Period 2 affects the harvesting and the level of fishery stock in Period 1 indecisively, but it gives negative effects on the harvesting in Period 2 and positive effects on the level of fishery stock in Period 2.     

Critical science gaps impede use of no-take fishery reserves

As well as serving valuable biodiversity conservation roles, functioning no-take fishery reserves protect a portion of the fishery stock as insurance against future over-fishing. So long as there is adequate compliance by the fishing community, it is likely that they will also sustain and even enhance fishery yields in the surrounding area. However, there are significant gaps in scientific knowledge that must be filled if no-take reserves are to be used effectively as fishery management tools. Unfortunately, these gaps are being glossed over by some uncritical advocacy. Here, we review the science, identify the most crucial gaps, and suggest ways to fill them, so that a promising management tool can help meet the growing challenges faced by coastal marine fisheries.     

Local sensitivity of per-recruit fishing mortality reference points

We study the sensitivity of fishery management per-recruit harvest rates which may be part of a quantitative harvest strategy designed to achieve some objective for catch or population size. We use a local influence sensitivity analysis to derive equations that describe how these reference harvest rates are affected by perturbations to productivity processes. These equations give a basic theoretical understanding of sensitivity that can be used to predict what the likely impacts of future changes in productivity will be. Our results indicate that per-recruit reference harvest rates are more sensitive to perturbations when the equilibrium catch or population size per recruit, as functions of the harvest rate, have less curvature near the reference point. Overall our results suggest that per recruit reference points will, with some exceptions, usually increase if (1) growth rates increase, (2) natural mortality rates increase, or (3) fishery selectivity increases to an older age.     

Stock enhancement as a fisheries management tool

Stock enhancement has been viewed as a positive fisheries management tool for over 100 years. However, decisions to undertake such activities in the past have often been technology-based, i.e., driven by the ability to produce fishes, with most stock enhancement projects having limited or no demonstrated success. The reasons for this have been due to an inability to identify and/or control the underlying reasons why a fishery is under-performing or not meeting management objectives. Further, stock enhancement has often been applied in isolation from other fisheries management tools (e.g., effort control). To address these issues and consider stock enhancement in a broader ecosystem perspective, a new approach for stock enhancement is proposed. The proposed model comprises four major steps; a review of all information about an ecosystem/fishery/stock and the setting of clear management targets; a comparison of all relevant fisheries management tools with the potential to meet the management targets; the instigation of a scientifically based, pilot-scale, stock enhancement program with clear objectives, targets, and evaluations; and a full-scale stock enhancement program if the pilot project meets the objectives. The model uses a flow-chart that highlights a broad range of scientific and other information, and the decisions that need to be made in relation to stock enhancement and fisheries management in general. In this way all steps are transparent and all stakeholders (managers, scientists, extractive and non-extractive users, and the general public) can contribute to the information collection and decision making processes. If stock enhancement is subsequently identified as the most-appropriate tool, then the stepwise progression will provide the best possible chance of a positive outcome for a stock enhancement project, while minimizing risks and costs. In this way, stock enhancement may advance as a science and develop as a useful fisheries management tool in appropriate situations.